Following John Best

Francie Barrett

Graphic says it all really, the last 2 years have been an utter disaster for John Best and he's not had a winner in the last 100 attempts, but there might now just be light at the end of the tunnel. He's got 3 out today with some having some good chances now that they're very well handicapped, or so I think at least.

For up is Lupo D'Oro in the 2:00 at Nottingham. This horse won the same race back in 2012 this time last year off a mark of 72. Today sees the horse at a mark of 66 (career low) and now running in a class 5 race for the first time since that race. Draw is fine and the ground of good to soft should suit. Horse needs to turn around some fairly wretched form, but with it carrying less weight and up against less stiff opposition, hopefully we see a shock today. Best price, 20/1 with William Hill.

Next up is Sabre Rock in the 4:55 at Kempton. Gone from a career high official rating of 75 now down to 53 where it raced last time out and started to show signs of being competitive at this level. Think that race could very well have been a nice prep for today, Steve Drowne who rode that day should have a much better feel for how to produce it this time around. Coillte Alainn, one of the favourites and top weights has just been pulled, so in a reduced field, this one could just spring a surprise. Best price is with William Hill at 18/1.

Leaving his last runner alone (Sheikh The Reins). Has won at Kempton 3 times but there really is very little to be enthusiastic about this one considering it barely got out of the stalls for the last few runs. Handicapper has been very stubborn with this one so we may have to wait awhile yet for a decent run.

diomed

His address listed below his name in the Statistical summary made me smile.
In other news Andrew Balding had his first Group 1 winner since 2003 the other day.

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

For up is Lupo D'Oro in the 2:00 at Nottingham. This horse won the same race back in 2012 this time last year off a mark of 72. Today sees the horse at a mark of 66 (career low) and now running in a class 5 race for the first time since that race. Draw is fine and the ground of good to soft should suit. Horse needs to turn around some fairly wretched form, but with it carrying less weight and up against less stiff opposition, hopefully we see a shock today. Best price, 20/1 with William Hill.

Looked to be out for a run, nowhere.

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Next up is Sabre Rock in the 4:55 at Kempton. Gone from a career high official rating of 75 now down to 53 where it raced last time out and started to show signs of being competitive at this level. Think that race could very well have been a nice prep for today, Steve Drowne who rode that day should have a much better feel for how to produce it this time around. Coillte Alainn, one of the favourites and top weights has just been pulled, so in a reduced field, this one could just spring a surprise. Best price is with William Hill at 18/1.

Went from 18/1 to 8/1 at the off. Traveled very well throughout the race but just didn't have the pace to trouble the front two at the end. Placed.

Francie Barrett

Poor old John, still no winners! Has two out tonight though, Lupo Doro and Sheikh The Reins. Feel that Sheikh The Reins has been struggling far too much as of late and I'd want to at least see some kind of run before I'd back him. Lupo Doro on the otherhand is one that ran ok last time out. Today sees it stepped up to 7f for the first time and off (another) all time low mark. Big price of 25/1 will William Hill that I am going to take.

Peintre Celebre

I forgot about this thread, Lupo D'oro is the only horse I've backed this week. This is his second time to race over seven the other was a decent Newbury handicap when he was midfield off a mark of 85. Been watching this fella ever since they absolutely smashed into him at Sandown during the summer, was slowly away and never involved. Worth a try at this trip, only had a small each way bet because he isn't one to put too much faith in but he could go well if the trip brings out improvement

Francie Barrett

Lupo Doro declared for a class 6 race in Lingfield next week. The faster surface (which I think should suit) and the drop in class is interesting, wonder does the handbrake come off this time.

AstraOwner

Why on earth would anybody follow a trainer with such a poor record? If there's anything to gain from his poor form it's with horses who have moved from his stable to another.

In the last two years eleven horses have done just that. Of the last seven (on their first run for their new trainer):

Azabitmore won at 25/1 for Suzy Smith
Boris the Bold win at 14/1 for Martin Smith
Hallings Wish won at 10/1 for George Moore

Bayleyf was beaten a short head at 9/1 for Lee Carter.

Peintre Celebre

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Lupo Doro declared for a class 6 race in Lingfield next week. The faster surface (which I think should suit) and the drop in class is interesting, wonder does the handbrake come off this time.

There was no handbrake horse is just ****. In fairness he actually ran better than the bare result yesterday, probably chased too hard a pace over a trip too far. Don't assume this is a plot job though

AstraOwner

AstraOwner wrote: »

If there's anything to gain from his poor form it's with horses who have moved from his stable to another.

In the last two years eleven horses have done just that. Of the last seven (on their first run for their new trainer):

Azabitmore won at 25/1 for Suzy Smith
Boris the Bold win at 14/1 for Martin Smith
Hallings Wish won at 10/1 for George Moore

Bayleyf was beaten a short head at 9/1 for Lee Carter.

Anyone following? Another winner today.

Francie Barrett

AstraOwner wrote: »

Why on earth would anybody follow a trainer with such a poor record? If there's anything to gain from his poor form it's with horses who have moved from his stable to another.

In the last two years eleven horses have done just that. Of the last seven (on their first run for their new trainer):

Azabitmore won at 25/1 for Suzy Smith
Boris the Bold win at 14/1 for Martin Smith
Hallings Wish won at 10/1 for George Moore

Bayleyf was beaten a short head at 9/1 for Lee Carter.

This is a fair point, you just cannot argue with those results. However, there's a few horses I've seen running for John Best that are better than what they've been showing. Let's wait and see what happens.

AstraOwner

Francie Barrett wrote: »

However, there's a few horses I've seen running for John Best that are better than what they've been showing. Let's wait and see what happens.

I'm all for finding winners in obscure places Francie but I genuinely think you're daft here.

The man had 75 runners on the turf this year for 0 wins and one 2nd. He had 1 win on the turf last year from 101!


The second horse you mentioned in this thread, Sabre Rock, has since moved on and won first time out for Julie Feilden. Jockey didn't need the whip.

Brian Goodyear took his horses out of the yard last month and sent them to Michael Bell. Brian has been paying John Best training fees for 7 years and never had a winner. Today he's had his winner, first time out for Michael Bell.


As for the thread there are two meanings for the word 'following':

Following
noun
1. a body of followers, attendants, adherents, etc.

2. the following, that which comes immediately after

I think you're on the wrong one.


Another winner for the 'Following(2) John Best' system today. (Though there is no secret to this system anymore and the highest available 7/1 was heavily gobbled up.)

Pinesky

I'm a believer of ''obscure'' sources as well. Ray Cohcrane had the highest % of winners from favs to runners for 3 years before he hit the big time.
Robert Street a definite chalk jockey used to ride 3 or 4 favs a year but they always won . When Pat Edderry was with Peter Walwyn the stable always got their Barbados winter money on horses ridden by Frank Morby and Steve Raymont .
These plots could be spotted if you knew what to look for.
Keep up the good work.

Francie Barrett

Good points Astra, but I am not blind backing all his runners. I am looking at his horses that are very well handicapped and have showed something in the not too recent past. The fact Sabre Rock went and won a week after changing stable suggests to me that some of his horses are indeed down to the kind of level where they can be competitive.

AstraOwner

Francie Barrett wrote:

The fact Sabre Rock went and won a week after changing stable suggests to me that some of his horses are indeed down to the kind of level where they can be competitive.

Oh there's no doubting that his horses are well handicapped Francie. Simply because John can't get them to win. That's why the 'Following(2) John Best' system is such a success.

One of your picks in this thread, Lupo D'oro. That's his last turf winner, way back in June 2013 off a OR80. He has had 13 races since and has only beaten more than 50% of the field just the once. Finished 8th of 13 for you (off OR66), and 13th of 14 (off OR64) lately when you backed him again.

You can look at a horse like Lewamy, who came into the yard off OR74. 13 runs with John Best later and he's OR47. He was beaten a short head at Lingfield in August. This the thing you're looking out for? He was since well beaten 3 more times for Best (after which the horse's owner has moved him to a different trainer).


You mention things like the handbrake is coming horses like Lupo D'oro!? Believe me if John Best could take the handbrake off these he would.

The man had 35 winners in 2010. 22 in 2011. 15 in 2012. 6 in 2013. 4 in 2014. Personally I don't think it's the right time to start following him. But it's your decision and it's your cash you're putting on him.

Presume Mossgo on Monday is another bet?



If some mystery superbug is found in his yard and he controls it, he'll have a load of well handicapped horses on his hands (and the whole world will quickly catch on). But he'd want to hurry up and find something, because he won't have any owners or horses left at this rate.

AstraOwner

An ex John Best horse Habeshia is out again tomorrow. He was moved to Michael Bell's yard recently and won first time out for him last Wednesday (For the 'Following(2) John Best' system).

He's in a Class 7 hcap at Kempton tomorrow with a penalty and could/should still have plenty in hand. Ideally it wouldn't be an apprentice 'Hands and Heels' race but I can't change that.
The 3/1 available with Powers, Betfair and B365 at the moment is a big, big price and I've reinvested most of my winnings from last week.

Francie Barrett

AstraOwner wrote: »

You can look at a horse like Lewamy, who came into the yard off OR74. 13 runs with John Best later and he's OR47. He was beaten a short head at Lingfield in August. This the thing you're looking out for?

What I find very strange in all this, is that the problem does not appear to be with the horses themselves. If anything, Best must have the horses in good nick because Habeshia changed trainer on the 14th of November and won 5 days later.

AstraOwner

Francie Barrett wrote: »

What I find very strange in all this, is that the problem does not appear to be with the horses themselves. If anything, Best must have the horses in good nick because Habeshia changed trainer on the 14th of November and won 5 days later.

I'm guessing you're going by the stated date as of the Racing Post? That's the date the paperwork has been completed and doesn't indicate the date the horse actually changed hands. Habeshia was in training with Michael Bell in October.

But yeah, it doesn't take much. Sabre Rock was in his new quarters less than a fortnight. Not happy horses with Best.

ShaneU

AstraOwner wrote: »

An ex John Best horse Habeshia is out again tomorrow. He was moved to Michael Bell's yard recently and won first time out for him last Wednesday (For the 'Following(2) John Best' system).

He's in a Class 7 hcap at Kempton tomorrow with a penalty and could/should still have plenty in hand. Ideally it wouldn't be an apprentice 'Hands and Heels' race but I can't change that.
The 3/1 available with Powers, Betfair and B365 at the moment is a big, big price and I've reinvested most of my winnings from last week.

Good eye

AstraOwner

Surprised he came in at an SP of 5/2. Really thought he'd see a lot of money.


He'll be an interesting runner again next week should he go.

the groutch

Habeshia running again tomorrow at Wolverhampton and still looks well treated, only question is how he'll handle the tapeta.

AstraOwner

Have been watching the early markets closely for this one.

Habeshia back in Class 6 company tomorrow. Stronger race than last time out when they all bunched up behind him at Kempton. But he held on well and was in front for a long time under hands and heels.
Still just 5lb higher when winning first time out for Michael Bell (when 'quietly fancied'). Is actually 2lb less if you take into account Michael Kenneally's generous 7lb claim.

Early 3/1 is a good price. Surprisingly enough I managed to get a decent chunk on. But it's back to standard stakes, not quite as much as I had last time.

Francie Barrett

AstraOwner wrote: »

Presume Mossgo on Monday is another bet?

Mossgo out today in the 4:45 at Kempton will be one for me today. 1 length off last time out, this one is apparently schooling very well and should be fit as a flea for today. Martin Dwyer has rode it the last two times over Kempton and should have the measure of what's needed to get this one home at a career low mark. Market seems to reflect this optimism with the horse going off as favourite, managed to nab 11/4, best price 5/2 now.

AstraOwner

Will be somewhat interesting to see how he goes.

It's a very weak race and like so many of John's horses this one is on a rock bottom mark, 48 from a one time high of 77.

Odd to see a Best horse favorite, given the trainer's form (even in a race as weak as this), so I had to have a quick look at how they've been going:

It will (probably) be his 5th favourite this year. The other four failed to finish in the first half of the field.
He's had 1 winning favourite from his last 20. A spell which covers 3 years.


Personally I wouldn't touch him (or the race) with stolen money but somebody has to win, and it's as difficult to make a case for any of the opposition. I'd advise any backers to consider laying him in running for a shorter price, given how he has faded so badly in the final furlong recently.


But best of luck Francie. And John Best Racing!

Peintre Celebre

One fav winner in 20. What a record

AstraOwner

AstraOwner wrote: »

Brian Goodyear took his horses out of the yard last month and sent them to Michael Bell. Brian has been paying John Best training fees for 7 years and never had a winner. Today he's had his winner, first time out for Michael Bell.

He's just had his third winner. In about a month out of Best's yard. As happy as he must be, the thought that he paid Best training fees for 7 years must surely niggle him?

AstraOwner

Francie Barrett wrote: »

For up is Lupo D'Oro in the 2:00 at Nottingham. This horse won the same race back in 2012 this time last year off a mark of 72. Today sees the horse at a mark of 66 (career low) and now running in a class 5 race for the first time since that race. Draw is fine and the ground of good to soft should suit. Horse needs to turn around some fairly wretched form, but with it carrying less weight and up against less stiff opposition, hopefully we see a shock today. Best price, 20/1 with William Hill.

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Lupo Doro on the otherhand is one that ran ok last time out. Today sees it stepped up to 7f for the first time and off (another) all time low mark. Big price of 25/1 will William Hill that I am going to take.

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Lupo Doro declared for a class 6 race in Lingfield next week. The faster surface (which I think should suit) and the drop in class is interesting, wonder does the handbrake come off this time.

You going in again tomorrow Francie?


John has two out tomorrow actually, Lupo D'Oro and Big Whiskey. Big Whiskey is somewhat of an interesting one in that he's having his first run for John Best. He's owned by Nick Dyshaev, who until now had all his horses with Edward Creighton. Creighton has had a terrible year of it this year and I believe Nick has moved all his horses to John Best (why on earth would anyone do this?).
Now just as I'd take notice of horses who have moved from Best, I'd be almost as interested in horses who have moved from Creighton. Just unfortunately on this occasion they've gone to Best.

He's on a winning mark and had a good run first time out this winter. Has more entries next Monday which would sometimes indicate that they're expecting a winning run and looking to get him out again quickly before the handicapper reassesses him. You could probably argue who better to move the horse to than John Best if you're expecting a big Christmas gamble.
But that's all clutching at a whole load of straws. It's a competitive race and John Best couldn't train ivy up a wall for a long time now. I don't know why I wrote all that because I really don't expect him to win. But he's somewhat interesting.

20/1 available currently if anyone fancies a go.

(Maybe there's a big Christmas double on the cards!)

AstraOwner

AstraOwner wrote: »

Big Whiskey is somewhat of an interesting one in that he's having his first run for John Best. He's owned by Nick Dyshaev, who until now had all his horses with Edward Creighton. Creighton has had a terrible year of it this year and I believe Nick has moved all his horses to John Best (why on earth would anyone do this?).
Now just as I'd take notice of horses who have moved from Best, I'd be almost as interested in horses who have moved from Creighton. Just unfortunately on this occasion they've gone to Best.

He's on a winning mark and had a good run first time out this winter. Has more entries next Monday which would sometimes indicate that they're expecting a winning run and looking to get him out again quickly before the handicapper reassesses him. You could probably argue who better to move the horse to than John Best if you're expecting a big Christmas gamble.
But that's all clutching at a whole load of straws. It's a competitive race and John Best couldn't train ivy up a wall for a long time now. I don't know why I wrote all that because I really don't expect him to win. But he's somewhat interesting.

20/1 available currently if anyone fancies a go.

Last! Welcome to JB Racing.

Mossgo out again tomorrow.

Francie Barrett

AstraOwner wrote: »

Last! Welcome to JB Racing.

Mossgo out again tomorrow.

FYI - I am not backing all his runners blind. That would be stupid. What I am looking for is a runner that is maybe showing something, and that is well handicapped. If I am going to back one of his runners, I will mention it here.

I will be backing Mossgo tomorrow 7/1 EP. Tipped it up last time when it made an absolute balls out of the start, lost its rhythm early on, but still managed to finish decently. Martin Dwyer will have the measure of this horse, the distance and I expect it to be produced at the right time and go close. Fitness and race readiness should not even be a question, as this horses last run was only two weeks ago. Down 1lb from that last run when it went off a very hot favourite, I would consider this the best chance/prospect for Bestie to get a winner since I started this thread.

Johner

Think it's time to give up on John Best Francie, he's utter toilet.

AstraOwner

Just seen that John has moved yards recently. Has plenty of entries for the coming week. Still rubbish results though.

shy-tall-knight

I have a free ten euro bet and for reasons I don't quite know, I have placed it on Lupo D'oro at Lingfield tomorrow

Francie Barrett

shy-tall-knight wrote: »

I have a free ten euro bet and for reasons I don't quite know, I have placed it on Lupo D'oro at Lingfield tomorrow

Haha, I have as well. It and Swendab I feel have a good chance off low marks, but 20/1 is a very good price for Lupo.

Francie Barrett

20/1 to 5/1.

could this be the day.

Francie Barrett

2:50 Chelmsford - Stone Of Folca (7/1) once rated as high as 104, down to 78. Without doubt the class horse of this race, only question is whether it goes on the AW. If his stable star can't win a class 4 race, then maybe Best would be better off packing it in!

AstraOwner

I've spent a fair bit of time trying to save you some cash Francie and I've made a fair chunk of cash from horses who have left the stable, but today I'm actually on a John Best runner! :eek:

Not Stone of Folca though, Berrahri in the previous race at 12/1 (now with a 10p rule 4). He's no sure thing and the race isn't an easy one for the grade. As with any 12/1 shot he's more likely to lose than win. But I think he could go close and the 12/1 was very fair.

Francie Barrett

AstraOwner wrote: »

I've spent a fair bit of time trying to save you some cash Francie

I haven't lost money though.

6 picks. Sabre Rock placed at 18/1. Lupo D'oro placed at 20/1. Would always do a double digit price ew.

AstraOwner

Good on ya Francie

Francie Barrett

https://www.facebook.com/BBCSouthEastToday

Video on John Best's new setup somewhere on that page. Also read in the Racingpost that the new facility has a 5 furlong AW gallops and Stone Of Folca has been thriving on it.

MonkstownHoop

Just had a winner there

AstraOwner

Berrahri messed the break totally but ran a very decent race and passed most of the field before the finish.

Stone of Folca missed it too but ran a bit sh1t. He might have needed it.

Best actually had a winner with his other runner, Gung Ho Jack.


Few of his horses going well since the change of stables. Now it's worth keeping an eye on things.

Francie Barrett

Had a horse place today at 16/1. Looks like the change of scenery is paying off.

wackokid

It cant be done

AstraOwner

Another winner for John. He could have plenty of winners over the coming months, as so many of them are now rated so low.

Francie Barrett

A winner at the weekend in St Moritz and another winner today at Lingfield.

AstraOwner

Already passed 2014's tally of winners. Money to be made.

Bozo Skeleton

I was on Gung Ho Jack like a hot snot at 6-1, though it was available at 9-1 in the morning. He has 3 down to go
on Friday

Francie Barrett

Bozo Skeleton wrote: »

I was on Gung Ho Jack like a hot snot at 6-1, though it was available at 9-1 in the morning. He has 3 down to go
on Friday

On its 3 timer now. Should we well within its capability given how well it ran last time out. Let's hope it can win again.

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

On its 3 timer now. Should we well within its capability given how well it ran last time out. Let's hope it can win again.

Winner :cool:

Bozo Skeleton

Ker-ching!

Francie Barrett

Lupo Doro probably wins again today at Lingers, but 7/4 is very skinny.

Peintre Celebre

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Lupo Doro probably wins again today at Lingers, but 7/4 is very skinny.

One of the worst prices I have ever seen and not exaggerating. Six pounds for that was harsh I think, wouldn't fancy him today.