New Government Report spells disaster for on-shore Wind Energy

Dermot McDonnell

New Government Report spells disaster for on-shore Wind Energy

The new Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland Wind Atlas predicts 50% less available energy from on-shore wind.

From the contractors report – Part1, Part2. Maps showing mean wind speed 100m a.g. (above ground) from the existing (left), and new (right), wind atlases.

SEAI have not published the new wind atlas on their website, however, it has been available on request to the cognoscenti. We can calculate the mean power loss for two locations for which there is specific public information.

Mean Wind Speeds from New Wind Atlas.




Mean Wind Speeds for Oweninny from Existing Wind Atlas.

For Oweninny, the new atlas gives 7.7m/s mean wind speed at 100m a.g. The existing atlas gives a range, 9.5m/s to 9.75m/s, when you click on the existing Bellacorick wind farm icon at the heart of the site. As power is proportional to the cube of the wind speed, we can calculate the mean power ratios:

(7.7 x 7.7 x 7.7)/(9.5 x 9.5 x 9.5) and (7.7 x 7.7 x 7.7)/(9.75 x 9.75 x 9.75) equals 0.53 and 0.49.

The fall in the mean available power at 100m a.g. is 47% to 51%. The Cluddaun figures are similar. From the maps you can see the vast bulk of the country, with few exceptions, has experienced a massive fall in available wind power. Indeed, there are areas where the decline in available wind power appears to be even greater than at Oweninny/Cluddaun in North Mayo. Unfortunately, data for specific locations is very sparse.

For all but a couple of wind farm developers, the new SEAI Wind Atlas in an unmitigated disaster as banks and investors will look very hard once again at prospective projects.

BoJack Horseman

Forgive the ignorance....

Would this not be temporary?
Climate change is making stormy/windy weather more frequent I thought?

Dermot McDonnell

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Forgive the ignorance....

Would this not be temporary?
Climate change is making stormy/windy weather more frequent I thought?

My thoughts exactly, after all increased air temperature means more energy, not less, in the athmosphere. I wrote to SEAI and this is what they had to say

"The updated 2013 atlas derives its data mostly from the decade commencing 2000, whereas the previous version of the atlas derived mostly from the decade commencing 1990. It is a recognised meteorological phenomenon that wind speeds were generally lower in the more recent decade and thus it is to be expected that specific figures would be lower in the updated atlas than the equivalent in the previous version."

Godge

Dermot McDonnell wrote: »

My thoughts exactly, after all increased air temperature means more energy, not less, in the athmosphere. I wrote to SEAI and this is what they had to say

"The updated 2013 atlas derives its data mostly from the decade commencing 2000, whereas the previous version of the atlas derived mostly from the decade commencing 1990. It is a recognised meteorological phenomenon that wind speeds were generally lower in the more recent decade and thus it is to be expected that specific figures would be lower in the updated atlas than the equivalent in the previous version."

Does that mean that climate change is not happening or that scientists misunderstood the effects of climate change?

BoJack Horseman

Godge wrote: »

Does that mean that climate change is not happening or that scientists misunderstood the effects of climate change?

Or my understanding is all wrong.

Perhaps we will see a period of lower average wind skewed by more frequent extreme weather events?
Which is probably useless for wind farms.

Already there is a "PR-ish" skew on government announcements on installed power vs real power generated.

That gap will grow if average wind drops.

Dermot McDonnell

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

...Already there is a "PR-ish" skew on government announcements..

Hold that thought!

A vanishing resource is vanishing wealth. How much I wonder?

We can figure that out for the two locations, Oweninny and Cluddaun, as we have the necessary data. These are adjacent sites and so, for simplicity and to err on the side of caution, we will treat them as one big wind farm and use the, lower, Oweninny wind speeds to make the calculations.

In total, their grid connection contract is for 521MW. They want 160 turbines at between 90m and 120m a.g. Again for simplicity we will assume all production takes place at 100m a.g.

521MW/160 turbines = 3.25MW per turbine. Of the turbines considered in their planning application, the largest is the Vestas V112 - 3.075MW - 112m blade diameter, and the smallest is the Vestas V90 - 3MW - 90m blade diameter.

The Swiss Government simplify the calculation process considerably on their website and provide a capacity factor, a term scientists use to quantify wind farm production, past or future. A capacity factor of 1, or 100%, is the theoretical maximum.

Wind Speed:|_| 7.7m/s |_| 9.5m/s |_| 9.75m/s
Vestas V90 |_| 0.348 |_| 0.480 |_| 0.495
Vestas V112|_| 0.445 |_| 0.575 |_| 0.589

Which brings us to the money. We will use the State REFIT rate for large wind €69.581/MWh, the minimum price. There is also a capacity payment but we will ignore it.

Production value - 521MW for one year for both new, and existing, wind atlases:

Wind Speed:|_| 7.7m/s |_| 9.5m/s |_| 9.75m/s
160 x Vestas V90 at 100m a.g. |_| €102m |_| €140m |_| €145m
160 x Vestas V112 at 100m a.g.|_| €134m |_| €173m |_| €177m

The new wind altas estimates the minimum value of production at Oweninny/Cluddaun at between €102m to €134m.

The existing wind altas estimates the minimum value of production at Oweninny/Cluddaun at between €140m - €177m.

That's €38m - €43m per year, absolute minimum, in gross profit lost in the new wind atlas scenario, index linked to the price of energy for the 30+ year lifetime of these wiind farms. It runs to several €billion over the lifetime.

chromazone

Dermot,

If what you say is true, why hasn't this been in the news? A drop in windspeed like this means that around one third of the potential for sustainable energy from windfarms is gone!

Is this the case across Europe?

Paul Thomas Rowland

chromazone wrote: »

Dermot,

If what you say is true, why hasn't this been in the news? A drop in windspeed like this means that around one third of the potential for sustainable energy from windfarms is gone!

Is this the case across Europe?

This huge loss in wind power in Ireland has not been in the news, or scientific journals, because it has not happened. I don't believe a word of what's in the SEAI new wind atlas. The wind resource has not gone anywhere. I see in the engineers report llinked by the OP that in this new wind atlas they thank people from ESB and Board na Mona for their mast observations. One of the thanked has the same name as the project manager for Oweninny Wind Farm. How very kind of SEAI to make sure their stable mates get to have a nice sit down, cup of tea and a chat with the contractor to make sure this new wind atlas tells their story.

ESB and Board na Mona are giving us the poor mouth so they don't have to give the peasants anything. What a piece of cheap low down government cr*p. Have they got planning yet? Will they go ahead?

Dermot McDonnell

Paul Thomas Rowland wrote: »

...ESB and Board na Mona are giving us the poor mouth ... Will they go ahead?

You might imagine that the prospect of losing €30m per year for 33 years would be bad news for the ESB and BnM, but the new wind atlas is a godsend for them.

They claim a capacity factor of 0.33 for Oweninny and it's pretty clear if you look at the numbers above, that the existing wind atlas forecasts much greater production and a vastly more profitable wind farm business. Their 0.33 figure appears 4 times in 3 different documents in their planning application. I guess it comes as no surprise to you that the new wind atlas rather precisely predicts a capacity factor of around 0.33 for the smallest turbine, V90, at the lowest hub height, 90m a.g. The calculation above for the new wind atlas gives 0.348 at 100m a.g.

I am fairly sure that the new, unpublished, SEAI wind atlas will find its way to An Bord Pleanála, who may then rely on it as "independent" verification of the Oweninny production figures. A decision is due soon.

In granting a planning permission, the Bord verifies the scientific data in the Environmental Impact Statement, including the production figures. In doing so, the Bord places a value on Oweninny Power Ltd., the ESB/BnM joint vehicle. That value will, of course, be far less than the existing wind atlas, and other data, would imply.

My money is on the sale of OPL, or even BnM, following any grant of planning permission for Oweninny. The lucky new owners will discover a vastly richer cash flow when Oweninny wind farm comes on-line. Who knows, we might even see a management buyout of these state assets.

If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, waddles like a duck, then maybe they will float it, like a duck, and become very rich indeed

Paul Thomas Rowland

Dermot McDonnell wrote: »

That value will, of course, be far less than the existing wind atlas, and other data, would imply.

What other data?

Dermot McDonnell

Paul Thomas Rowland wrote: »

What other data?

First this:


UK Dept of Trade & Industry: UK onshore wind capacity factors 1998-2004

This rigerous study looked at metered production at 8 wind farms north of the border for 7 full years. In 6 of the 7 years the capacity factor was higher than the 0.33 ESB and BnM claim for Oweninny wind farm. The mean capactity factor is almost 10% higher.

The turbines in the DTI study are tiny by comparison with the huge turbines proposed for Oweninny, yet we are to believe that Oweninny will produce less on a unit basis over the next 38 years. I don't buy that.

Then this:


Published by BnM, these data are based on wind measurements made at 3 x 50m masts at Oweninny since 2002. The smallest turbine, the V90, would have a greater capacity factor at 50m a.g. than the ESB n BnM claim at 90m a.g. The larger turbine, the V112, would not produce anything at 50m a.g., it blades are too long.

And then there's the Irish Energy Center study, done in co-operation with BnM, of Ireland's oldest wind farm, Bellacorick, in operation since 1992 at Oweninny. Again it looks at metered production and provides a mean wind speed at 30m a.g. of 7.27m/s. The tiny turbines achieved a 31% capacity factor over the four year period of the study. We are being asked to believe that hugh turbines proposed will produce a less than 10% more on a unit basis? I don't think so.

Is that enough other data?

Paul Thomas Rowland

Dermot McDonnell wrote: »

Is that enough other data?

I hope that An Board Planala will rise to the opportunity.
It reminds me of the track How to Steal €10 Billion in Natural Resources by Institutionalised Crime, do you know it? It's on their album You live in a Kleptocracy.
You should report it to the guards.

Paul Thomas Rowland

You kicked the hornets nest. The old SEAI wind atlas has vanished from their website this morning. It has been replaced by the new one. Talk about disposing of evidence.

I notice no one from the many thousands of people in ESB, Board na Mona, SEAI, Dept of Energy or political spin doctors have shown up here to challenge your figures, that tells it's own story.

flutered

has not the uk giving up on wind farms, was this one of the reasons they were trying to import wind eenery from here, thr germans have found out that it is more than expensive, its the same across europe one is letd to believe.

Dermot McDonnell

flutered wrote: »

has not the uk giving up on wind farms, was this one of the reasons they were trying to import wind eenery from here, thr germans have found out that it is more than expensive, its the same across europe one is letd to believe.

A quick look at the DTI study will show you that the 8 wind farms up north produced 39% more electricity on a unit basis over the seven years considered than English wind farms. From the UK, and broader EU perspective, wind turbines here are "gushers".

Consider for a moment the wind business, if the breakeven capacity factor for a wind farm is, say 0.28, and the farm achieves 0.33, the gross margin is 0.05. If the farm achieves 0.59, the gross margin is 0.31 over six times greater. That goes directly to the bottom line, the rate of return on the investment is much much better and the business vastly more valuable as a consequence.

The New Wind Atlas is a result of the Dept of Energy making sure all its minions are singing from the same hymn sheet in respect of Oweninny. Making half our national wind resource disappear is just a consequence of their Orwellian scheme.

The total value of the discrepancy amounts to a sizable chunk of our national debt.

Why were ESB and BnM invited to engage in a "verification exercise" with the new wind atlas contractors? Why not Met Eireann, Coillte, Bord Gais, the Marine Institute, etc all of whom have relevant wind data?

The Law requires developers to provide an environmental impact statement (EIS) and to conduct public consultation in respect of any development. Telling the public lies in respect of the value, and profitability, of the resource is not a consultation exercise, it is propaganda exercise - a disinformation campaign.

Clearly enough the legislator wished to eliminate the possibility of a superficial, subjective or non-informative environmental impact statement and any statement meeting that description would not comply with the provisions of the Act, with the result that any final decision would be a nullity. - Cripps J in Prineas v Forestry Commission of New South Wales (1983) 49 LGRA 402

The real issue is what An Bord Pleanála will do? Do they have the stomach to take on the Dept of Energy and its powerful, extremely greedy, minions, ESB and BnM. Are developers free to include any old rubbish in a planning application, pay the fee, subject communities to fear and apprehension, so they can steal our natural resources?

chromazone

Had a chance to look at this in some depth this weekend. I agree the Oweninny production figures look extremely suspicious but I have some questions.

What did Coillte say about production in their planning application?

I did look but the application is thousands of pages long and I did not find anything relevant.
Any information on production from other west coast wind farms?

Dont the semistate companies need the permission of the Minister to sell Oweninny Power Limited?

It's not as if the wealth could just vanish into that company and never be seen again. After all, we do own these semistate companies, right?

Dermot McDonnell

chromazone wrote: »

..
What did Coillte say about production in their planning application?

Coillte quoted an expected mean wind speed range of 8.75m/s to 9.75m/s having had an 80m met mast, with anemometers every 10m, onsite for 18months prior to making their planning application. Coillte are in the remit of Dept of Agriculture, not Energy. Their mean wind figures are in full agreement with the old SEAI wind atlas and the scientific data published for the Oweninny site next door. Their figures utterly contradict the new SEAI wind atlas and the 0.33 capacity factor described as "expected" in the Oweninny planning application.

There is no obligation on developers to include production figures in a planning application. I have never heard of a case where a developer has done so. All of which begs the question:

Why did ESB and BnM include a capacity factor figure, it appears four times in their application, and why is it so far from the true figure?

As the discrepancy runs to several thousand million euro, I suggest their motive is natural resource fraud on an epic scale. They are relying on An Bord Pleanála to "validate" their 33% figure so that the project can be sold for what appears to be fair value, but is a fraction of the true value. As I said, perhaps via a management buyout or via sale to their nominee in Liechtenstein.

chromazone wrote: »

..
Any information on production from other west coast wind farms?

The Irish Energy Center Study of Cronalaght wind farm, Co. Donegal, quotes a capacity factor of 42.4% in its first year of operation based on metered production.

A Danish University Study of metered production at the same wind farm over the first 30months of operation show a capacity factor of over 46% for that period.

The hub height at Cronalaght is 40m and blade diameter 39m, very small by comparison of the turbines proposed for Oweninny and Cluddaun, 90m - 120m hub heights and 90m to 112m blade diameter.

chromazone wrote: »

..
Dont the semistate companies need the permission of the Minister to sell Oweninny Power Limited?

No. Semi-state companies are free to make commercial decisions free from interference or any real oversight.

chromazone wrote: »

..It's not as if the wealth could just vanish into that company and never be seen again. After all, we do own these semistate companies, right?

Oweninny Power Limited can be sold the day planning permission is granted. It owns the rights to develop the wind farm. Once gone, the wealth, I predict, will prove well nigh impossible to retrieve. It would be more prudent to prevent the disappearance of this wealth, after all that costs nothing by comparison.

I think it rather sad that the State, via Dept of Energy, is attempting a natural resources fraud a few kilometers from the Corrib Refinery, the Dept of Energys last great energy project in Mayo, now 14 years late and €3billion over budget without having delivered a single watt second of energy to our economy. Sustainable development, Irish style. Is there any reason to believe they will be more successful with their latest project, Oweninny?

Paul Thomas Rowland

I spoke to a friend this weekend. He is chief engineer with a large industrial concern and has a PhD in mechanical engineering from UMIST. He had a couple of questions.

1. Did you check your production numbers for Oweninny independently of the Swiss government website?
2. Did the ESB and Bord na Mona provide their many years of wind speed measurements to the new SEAI Wind Atlas contractor?
3. Where did you get the Long Term Predicted Wind Speeds at 50m above ground for Oweninny and the associated wind roses?
4. What do you do if permission for Oweninny/Cluddaun is granted by An Bord Pleanala in the next couple of weeks?
5. Where do the local political establishment stand in relation to this bizarre situation?

Dermot McDonnell

Paul Thomas Rowland wrote: »

... questions.

1. Did you check your production numbers for Oweninny independently of the Swiss government website?

I take due diligence very seriously. Wind speeds for Oweninny/Cluddaun at 90m to 120m were calculated by one of our leading scientists, holder of a chair in Physics in this country.

I paid a Danish University to independently develop a computer model for the turbines considered in the applicants noise analysis.

That model was independently checked by a US based expert in the modelling software used.

2. Did the ESB and Bord na Mona provide their many years of wind speed measurements to the new SEAI Wind Atlas contractor?

BnM have over 30 years wind data for Oweninny. Their outgoing CEO had this to say “the longest line of clean wind data of any company in the British Isles going back to 1990.”

The data supplied by ESB/BnM to the Wind Atlas contractor included wind logger data for some masts and other, unspecified, data for other masts. The data has been anonymised, it is not possible to tie any of the data to specific locations. However, there is a wealth of information in the data contained in the contractors report. I have subject it to my own analysis and I am now having independent analysis done.

3. Where did you get the Long Term Predicted Wind Speeds at 50m above ground for Oweninny and the associated wind roses?

From my local TD, Deputy Kenny. I saw him and requested those specific data. He wrote to BnM and they emailed the document to him. His office forward it to me. BnM accepted the figures are theirs.

4. What do you do if permission for Oweninny/Cluddaun is granted by An Bord Pleanala in the next couple of weeks?

Apply for judicial review of the decision. This is Ireland, not Russia, the state cannot lie to the public, local representatives and planners in a strategic infrastructure development and get away with it. The Cabinet does not have the authority to authorize crime.

5. Where do the local political establishment stand in relation to this bizarre situation?

All Mayo TDs are fully aware that the ESB/BnM have lied in their planning application for Oweninny. One Govt Deputy suggested to me that the semi-state rational was to avoid making benefit contributions to local communities rather than a multi-billion euro natural resources fraud. It may be the case that the intention is to defraud thousands of people living in proximity to their wind farms, I do not know nor do I care to contemplate the sordid rational of the criminal mind. Crime is crime and the motive remains the same: greed.

flutered

have you seen the iw fiasco, you are up against similar, i wish you well in your endevors, as big buisness never give up a chance of making massive profits at the publics expense, again good luck.

Paul Thomas Rowland

flutered wrote: »

have you seen the iw fiasco, you are up against similar, i wish you well in your endevors, as big buisness never give up a chance of making massive profits at the publics expense, again good luck.

+1

323

Paul Thomas Rowland wrote: »

This huge loss in wind power in Ireland has not been in the news, or scientific journals, because it has not happened. I don't believe a word of what's in the SEAI new wind atlas. The wind resource has not gone anywhere. I see in the engineers report llinked by the OP that in this new wind atlas they thank people from ESB and Board na Mona for their mast observations. One of the thanked has the same name as the project manager for Oweninny Wind Farm. How very kind of SEAI to make sure their stable mates get to have a nice sit down, cup of tea and a chat with the contractor to make sure this new wind atlas tells their story.

ESB and Board na Mona are giving us the poor mouth so they don't have to give the peasants anything. What a piece of cheap low down government cr*p. Have they got planning yet? Will they go ahead?

+1

Also suspicious of this. From SEAI (Quango), actually thanking ESB & Board na Mona for their data. Both being such big supporters of renewable energy:mad:.

Dermot McDonnell

@flutered & @323 Thank you for your support. Watch this space, An Bord Pleanála are due to issue a decision in respect of Oweninny and Cluddaun on Friday, Dec 5th.

You might note the national media silence on this huge €850m state windfarm. At 521MW, Oweninny/Cluddaun would have 6 times the capacity of our largest windfarm today. It's not surprising, I suppose, that RTE, yet another tentacle of the Dept of Comms Enery & Natural Resources, has had virtually nothing to say about this project. The national print media have pretty much ignored it too. Perhaps they do not wish to irritate ESB & BnM, both of which have large media budgets.

I don't expect too much from An Bord Pleanála. Shooting down strategic infrastructure projects proposed by the state is probably not a good career move for a civil servant in this country. My experience in dealing with the planning authorities in respect of these projects has been negative. You may wish to listen to our County Secretary explain why the Council reported a community benefit contribution recommendation of €2,500 per MW of capacity, rather than the €10,000 decided unanimously by the elected members, for Cluddaun windfarm to An Bord Pleánala. The decision took less time that the explanation. Both audio clips of the Council meetings are from MP3 files supplied by MCC under the FoI Acts.

I must say that I do look forward to the state explaining the disappearance of one half of our wind resource to the High Court

Voltex

Wind and solar energy looks like its gonna be even more popular over the coming years:
http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21635331-matching-output-demand-hard-wind-and-solar-power-answer-store

Dermot McDonnell

An Bord Pleanála say a decision in respect of the proposed Oweninny and Cluddaun wind farms will be published on Friday, 30th January, 2015.

I am very grateful to Boards Moderator, Declan, for reinstating the images and scientific data in posts #1 and #11 of this thread.

If you have not had an opportunity to consider the excellent scientific data, you may wish to do so now. They clearly indicate the State is lying to the public in respect of value, and profitability, of this massive natural resources project, 12 km from the Corrib Gas Refinery.

Some €10billion in profit has been carefully concealed - erased from reality - by the ESB and BnM, with the help of the new SEAI wind atlas, as a prelude to their theft of that natural resource wealth. It remains to be seen whether An Bord Pleanála will assist, or thwart, this criminal scheme.

robp

Voltex wrote: »

Wind and solar energy looks like its gonna be even more popular over the coming years:
http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21635331-matching-output-demand-hard-wind-and-solar-power-answer-store

The price of oil and gas has collapsed so that will impact. That is going to make subsidised renewables far less attractive for some time.

Dermot McDonnell

robp wrote: »

The price of oil and gas has collapsed so that will impact. That is going to make subsidised renewables far less attractive for some time.

Wind is largely insulated from fluctuations in gas/oil prices.

The State, through REFIT offers a guaranteed minimum price, index linked, for electricity generated from wind for the first 15 years of these projects. This mininum figure is what I have used in calculations in earlier posts. Projects are also entitled to a capacity payment, not index linked, simply for being available to generate. I have ignored this payment entirely in order to take a very conservative view in valuation calculations.

windnoiseinfo

For those interested in wind farms take a look at

www windnoise info (I a newbie so cannot post links)

Paul Thomas Rowland

windnoiseinfo wrote: »

For those interested in wind farms take a look at

www windnoise info (I a newbie so cannot post links)

Very interesting site. Can you calculate the noise expected at Oweninny at 100m above ground as predicted by the both wind atlases? Mean wind speed of 7.7m/s in the new atlas and 9.75m/s in the older wind atlas. I suspect the new atlas predicts much lower noise, how convenient that would be for SEAI, ESB, Coillte and BnM.

windnoiseinfo

Paul Thomas Rowland wrote: »

Very interesting site. Can you calculate the noise expected at Oweninny at 100m above ground as predicted by the both wind atlases? Mean wind speed of 7.7m/s in the new atlas and 9.75m/s in the older wind atlas. I suspect the new atlas predicts much lower noise, how convenient that would be for SEAI, ESB, Coillte and BnM.

For compliance it does not work quiet like that

Take a read of www ioa org uk/publications/good-practice-guide

Noise is calculated as a function of wind speed and distance. So say a house is 1Km from the wind farm what you do is plot the predicted noise level for a range of wind speeds typically 3m/s (cut in speed) to 12 m/s

The fact that the mean wind speed at Oweninny is now lower than predicted will make no difference to the overall noise prediction. It just means that you will get less electricity

If the wind blows at 10 m/s then you will get the noise level predicted on the wind noise map

Hope that helps

Paul Thomas Rowland

windnoiseinfo wrote: »

...
If the wind blows at 10 m/s then you will get the noise level predicted on the wind noise map

Hope that helps

Very helpful, thank you for the wind noise map. So although the new wind atlas predicts electricity procuction is half that predicted by the old atlas, noise behaves differently.