Kona 2014 (spoiler alert)

pgibbo

I know that Tunney determined that not everyone can recall last years winners, but given it's just over a week away it's time to start the predictions.

Here's a list of the Irish going from the TI site. I'll be watching closely as it's the first time a member of Tri Lakes is there. :cool:

Some more dark horses and threats discussed here

Not a lot on ST yet except this interview with MC. I'm sure there will be a lot more there in the coming days.

So who do you fancy?

mossym

Kienle for the men, some good results early, then relatively quite at the 70.3, said on the thread for that i reckoned this was his focus and still think so.

women's, hard to see past a repeat win for MC

mossym

some predictions from the doc. rules out my choices.

http://triathlete-europe.competitor.com/2014/10/02/brett-suttons-kona-predictions

Brick Session

Is it live on the Net this year?

Women, hard to look past Rinny, maybe Stefan could hold out this year.

Men, Kienle, I wonder could Crowie surprise everyone, who knows.

bopperr

Joyce in the womens, Frodeno in the mens.

mossym

Brick Session wrote: »

Is it live on the Net this year?

.

it better be, i've en evenings viewing planned

Abhainn

It would seem there's not much talk anywhere around last year champion doing it again - Van Lierde. He had a great race Frankfurt. Don't be surprised if he comes out on top again

Steffen for the womens

bryangiggsy

Steffen is looking awfully lean this year. Ryf has to be considered also. My dark horse is Corinne Abraham. On the men's side it's wide open imo.

Brick Session

Steffen for the womens[/QUOTE]

I see she has been working with Macca and does look very fit, she deserves a win at this stage

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

FVL or Kienle for men & Rinny or Ryf for ladies.

sconhome

I'm going with the Champ again.

Ceepo

Kienle for me, Frodeno and Nils maybe top 3, Outside bet for me is Starykowicz ( call me mad)

Steffen for the Women's, Wurtele and Ryf outside bets, Also would like Swallow to go well but usually fades on the run

Fazz

Mens:

Frodo the joint favourite with Kienle imo.
FVL close, Marino if he doesn't cook again and then Nils Frommhold is my outsider for the podium.
Really think this guy is gonna win it next year, and make podium this year. He's basically the next Kienle but with a front pack swim.

1 - Kienle
2 - Frodo
3 - Frommhold
4 - T O'Donnell
5 - Potts


Still soo many variables though... Like Ivan Rana could do damage and he can run, as can Victor Del Corral Morales.

Then you've got T O'Donnell now under Mark Allen and a big Kona focus, Potts on a Kona focus, Aernouts in serious run form, Bozzone back to ironman, Llanos flying under the radar, Starykowicz with the swim/bike combo and possible hold for a sub 3 marathon.

2 of my podium guys are bikers, when in theory the race looks like a running race this year.
Heart ruling over head!


Women's:

Carfrae, Steffen, Ryf, Joyce, Cave, Hauschildt, Swallow, Kessler.

Gut says a close one to the end with a close top 5.
Hard to rule against Carfrae's run but surely the others are gonna put up their swim/bike's a bit more and battle off the front and push each other on further.


1 - Steffen
2 - Ryf
3 - Swallow
4 - Carfrae
5 - Joyce


I think this year looks like anything can happen.
Should be a classic.

Solobally8

Steffen and Kienle get my vote

speedyj

Starykowicz to have a 10 min lead from Kienle out of T2, run a 2:58 and hold on by 15 seconds :-) Ok, Frodeno.. Dark horse, Bevan Docherty.
Ryf or Joyce (heart Joyce, head Ryf)

sconhome

Hauschildt is out

http://triathlete-europe.competitor.com/2014/10/04/melissa-hauschildt-out-of-kona

tunney

speedyj wrote: »

Starykowicz to have a 10 min lead from Kienle out of T2, run a 2:58 and hold on by 15 seconds :-) Ok, Frodeno.. Dark horse, Bevan Docherty.
Ryf or Joyce (heart Joyce, head Ryf)

For a cvnt like Starykowicz to win would be disastrous.

sconhome

tunney wrote: »

For a cvnt like Starykowicz to win would be disastrous.

I can just imagine the finish line announcement:

Here comes our race leader...Star...I mean our winner currently in 2nd place approaching the line ... :rolleyes:

tunney

AKW wrote: »

I can just imagine the finish line announcement:

Here comes our race leader...Star...I mean our winner currently in 2nd place approaching the line ... :rolleyes:

"QUICK SOMEONE JUMP IN FRONT OF HIM."

bopperr

bopperr wrote: »

Joyce in the womens, Frodeno in the mens.

I am changing my mind to rinny for the womens. Looking back at last year she actually won this in a stroll. Only Ryf can possibly put it up to her and that is only because she is an unknown quantity.

bryangiggsy

Predictions for Top Irish Age grouper?

Fazz

For Tunney:

About 1:02 in on the Tuesday video for Starykowicz.

http://www.babbittville.com/breakfast-from-kona/


Thinks he can win with a 3:05 marathon...
And accepts some guys can run 2:40's...
Or even lower like Frodo.


Last year he was 21st OA with a 4:21 and a 3:25 marathon (8:43).
Kienle and McKenzie biked 4:22 and ran 2:57/2:58 for 2nd/3rd places.

So expect Starykowicz to really put his bike on the line on Saturday.

Will defo make the race interesting as the others decide how hard to go or to let him off. That's if he can outbike the likes of Kienle/Frommhold/McKenzie by much.

Fazz

bryangiggsy wrote: »

Predictions for Top Irish Age grouper?

Owen Martin
Mariusz Olenijcak
Declan Doyle
Martin Muldoon

somebody.else

bryangiggsy wrote:

Predictions for Top Irish Age grouper?

Overcook the bike?

Fazz

somebody.else wrote: »

Overcook the bike?

Ironically I would class all the likely top ag'ers as runners with proven strong runs off the bike so would completely disagree to overcooking the bike chances.

somebody.else

Perhaps, I suppose they do say third fourth fifth times a charm!

bopperr

odds are up

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/triathlon/

mossym

fair chance my long spin this weekend is going to be a turbo based one saturday night. might end up being while i watch this. can think of worse ways to do it. should provide lots of motivation if nothing else.

trinewbie

Fazz wrote: »

Owen Martin
Mariusz Olenijcak
Declan Doyle
Martin Muldoon

Could be very close between Owen and Mariusz, my money is on Mariusz. Owen has serious experience but Mariusz could outrun him, both definitely have the ability to run under 3; but looks like its seriously hot out there this year so experience could win out.

Shedite27

Odds suggest there's nothing at all between Frodeno, Van Lierde, Keinle and Rana, then comes a second group of Docherty, Llanos, Jacobs and O'Donnell.

Carfrae is odds on in the Womens race - bizzare! Steffan 3rd favorite but at 5/1 isn't going to make you rick

mossym

if the doc isn't over talking her, ryf is going to take some beating. he's mentioning course record bike split as a real target

if that's the case, rinny getting off the bike with a hell of a chase on her hands could make for a killer race...:)

mossym

info on live feeds, including the video feed

http://www.tri247.com/article_13344.html

RacoonQueen

What does a pro have to do to qualify? Certain amount of points from other IM races? Just wondering what the 'validation' thing means?

tunney

RacoonQueen wrote: »

What does a pro have to do to qualify? Certain amount of points from other IM races? Just wondering what the 'validation' thing means?

Former winners, for a certain number of years after their win, do not have to rack up points just finish an ironman to "validate".

Oryx

Entry is based on points but I know champions in full or half qualify automatically, they just have to validate by finishing an IM in the same year.

pointer28

RacoonQueen wrote: »

What does a pro have to do to qualify? Certain amount of points from other IM races? Just wondering what the 'validation' thing means?

AFAIK

Points are earned from various IM and HIM pro races, and validation means that you have to have completed a full IM in the previous 12 months ie even if you have enough points from HIM's you still have to do a full to validate.

Fazz

Talks of Kienle having an achilles injury and aqua jogging to save it.
Hopefully rubbish.

Llanos a danger man.

Steffen completely under the radar also.

5:25pm irish time.

MD1983

Mens is a lot more open than the womens IMO,

mens - there are some guys who seem to have flown under the radar for one reason or the other, jacobs, raelart, lanos and even FVL is not getting too much love. almost impossible to predict the winner or top 3

womens - think its between ryf and carfrae with joyce and abraham also in the mix

so prediction FWIW

frodeno
FVL
Jacobs

Carfrae
Ryf
Joyce

looking forward to watching it now!

trinewbie

Could Frommhold go with kienle? Definitely stayed under the radar; the man put out 310 watts for Roth , potential outsider chance for the podium if he holds it together on the run...if frodo is in contention coming into t2 dont think there is anyone to match him on the run.

Fazz

trinewbie wrote: »

Could Frommhold go with kienle? Definitely stayed under the radar; the man put out 310 watts for Roth , potential outsider chance for the podium if he holds it together on the run...if frodo is in contention coming into t2 dont think there is anyone to match him on the run.

Frommhold will have near 4 mins on Kienle out of Swim.

So likely to be close between at back half of bike.

Kienle still a little stronger on paper overall though.

So much could happen. Very open race.
Hopefully see a group of Stary, Kienle, Frommhold, Vanhoe and maybe McKenzie go off the front on the bike.
Though Stary likely out on his own in front.

Dory Dory

I had no idea of the disparity in men:women athletes! (never thought of it, actually) 1500+ men: 600+ women.

rodneyr1981

Folks what link are ye watching this on? Cheers

pointer28

http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/events/americas/ironman/world-championship/ironfan/2014-oct-11/live-blog.aspx#axzz3Fr7G9K4i

PWEI

Frodeno's got a flat. Bummer!

zico10

Dory Dory wrote: »

I had no idea of the disparity in men:women athletes! (never thought of it, actually) 1500+ men: 600+ women.

Maybe it's different in The States, but to be fair I've never done a tri where women were so well represented.

mossym

you've got people who go low 9's and don't get there


then you see guys sprinting (relatively) up the stairs to beat the swim cut off. seems wrong to me

Oryx

mossym wrote: »

you've got people who go low 9's and don't get there


then you see guys sprinting (relatively) up the stairs to beat the swim cut off. seems wrong to me

Arent there legacy and lottery slots?

mossym

Oryx wrote: »

Arent there legacy and lottery slots?

there are, it's the only way these could possibly get in. but it still seems wrong

Dory Dory

zico10 wrote: »

Maybe it's different in The States, but to be fair I've never done a tri where women were so well represented.

Due to my lack of race experience, I haven't a clue...but I imagine that the above ratio is pretty representative of the breakdown nationally. (I only say that because of the way Kona slots are given out - based on division proportions.) However, as a female, what a huge bonus for the ladies in the swim start!!

Shedite27

Do we need to use spoilers for the race???

130k gone on the bike, lots within 10mns

Maik Twelsiek
0:05 Sebastian Kienle
1:45 Marino Vanhoenacker
2:02 Frederik Van Lierde
2:12 Ben Hoffman
2:20 Romain Guillaume
2:23 Nils Frommhold
3:53 Tim O'Donnell
3:56 Tim Van Berkel
4:01 Tim Reed
4:02 Cyril Viennot
4:04 Igor Amorelli
4:05 Andy Potts
4:07 Daniel Halksworth
4:09 Paul Matthews
4:10 Andreas Raelert
6:05 Marko Albert
6:19 Craig Alexander
7:15 Jan Frodeno
7:18 Christian Kramer
8:35 Joe Gambles
8:54 Richie Cunningham
9:10 Luke McKenzie

Who's your money on now? What happened to Rana?

Bambaata

Fodo going well considering he'd a puncture!

Perhaps a spoiler tag on the title?