Outside the M50 and 3 beds are hitting €500k!!

jay0109

Larry Wildman wrote: »

Interest rates are likely to stay low for a generation.

They have to because of debt levels.

Wild assumptions from a Wildman!

You sound like the kid of lad who might have said in 2007 that house prices cannot fall for various reasons:
we have a growing population through births and immigration
the powers that be won't let it happen as they have too much to lose
the banks will keep lending
we're an english speaking country in the eurozone
etc etc

Larry Wildman

mr_seer wrote: »

Rises are inevitable over a 5 year horizon

They absolutely aren't.

But don't just listen to me. Check out the work of Harvard academics Reinhart and Sbrancia. Or listen to Ben Bernanke.

The world had huge debt twice previously. The first time it dealt with the problem through default. The second time (post WW2) it dealt with it through "financial repression" (keeping interest rates low and allowing inflation to deal with debt. Do you know what real interest rates looked like from 1945 to 1980? -1.6% per annum. And now we have private sector debt on top of huge public debt.

People revert to the period 1980 to 2007 because it's the one most people are most familiar with. Interest rates were high over the period. But the fact of the matter is that the world cannot handle high interest rates. There is just too much debt out there.

dubrov

I don't think you can compare post WW2 to today.
I'd be careful of listening to former chairmen of the federal reserve as well.

weary1

It's not difficult to work out why house prices are going up.
It's government policy - as that's the only way the banks can become solvent.

So in that respect I would judge it to be an artificial price.

markpb

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

Rathcoole is a 20 mins drive from the city centre and the Luas is 2 mins down the road! As is tyrrelstown. People need to realise that dublin is really really small.

When would it be a 20 minute drive, right now? You certainly couldn't leave home at 8:40 tomorrow morning and spect to be at your office in the city centre on time.

As for the Luas, it's a 50 minute trek into town after whatever time you spend getting to the Luas in the first place. The express Dublin Bus route is probably the fastest way into town and it still takes an hour.

It's a grand spot but at least try to be believable.

JONJO THE MISER

imitation wrote: »

It does seem crazy to assume that for the next 35 years that in order to service the mortgage you need to assume

Pay more than 50% of your net salary from 2 decently paid jobs.

That both people need to stay in said decent job for 35 years. No quitting for lifestyle choices, looking after the kids, looking after a sick family member nor can either person get any serious illness.

You can't loose the job or get a serious pay cut. A lower paid job would probably result in default after a few months.

Finally, to have any hope of being able to move house or have a comfortable living arrangement the economy can only go in one direction, up, otherwise the whole thing falls to bits.

Why would you take a loan like that, why would you give a loan like that ?

Would you not be better buying a house in Donegal and working for min wage, would work out better in the end.

quadrifoglio verde

markpb wrote: »

When would it be a 20 minute drive, right now? You certainly couldn't leave home at 8:40 tomorrow morning and spect to be at your office in the city centre on time.

As for the Luas, it's a 50 minute trek into town after whatever time you spend getting to the Luas in the first place. The express Dublin Bus route is probably the fastest way into town and it still takes an hour.

It's a grand spot but at least try to be believable.

Yes but the poster said that these houses in leopardstown are 20 mins drive from the city unlike rathcoole. My point was that most places in dublin and some outside are 20 mins to the city centre at 10 in the evening

Larry Wildman

dubrov wrote: »

I don't think you can compare post WW2 to today

Yes - There's far more debt now.

The world simply cannot handle high interest rates. It would tip into total insolvency.

Grandpa Hassan

Larry Wildman wrote: »

Yes - There's far more debt now.

The world simply cannot handle high interest rates. It would tip into total insolvency.

Interest rates in Europe will go up at signs of above threshold inflation in Germany. Debt levels in peripheral countries will be a secondary consideration. Inflation is low in the eurozone, including Germany, right now, but it won't stay that way forever. Interest rates will go up to counter inflation, even in the face of high debt levels

The ECB has made it perfectly clear that inflation is their #1 driver of interest rates

NIMAN

Still think the decision to take on a 35yr mortgage at that amount is a MASSIVE one to take, especially given our experience over the last 5 or 6 years.

35 years is an awful long time for a mortgage. If I had to take a 35yr mortgage to buy a home, I'd be thinking "I cant actually afford to buy", and continue renting. Owning a house isn't the be-all and end-all to put that kind of pressure on yourself and your family for 35yrs.

godtabh

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Would you not be better buying a house in Donegal and working for min wage, would work out better in the end.

I know people who do this (different county) and they would appear to have more disposable income. but then again they have to live in Donegal

NIMAN

Hey!! Donegal is great.

Idbatterim

on this subject, when you factor in all the etra income taxes, cost of living increases, salary cuts for some etc and the fact that the dirt cheap trackers are gone. Is affordability now with these recent price hikes even worse than the tiger years for desirable properties in Dublin? i.e. 3/4 bed in nices areas?

gaius c

Larry Wildman wrote: »

They absolutely aren't.

But don't just listen to me. Check out the work of Harvard academics Reinhart and Sbrancia. Or listen to Ben Bernanke.

The world had huge debt twice previously. The first time it dealt with the problem through default. The second time (post WW2) it dealt with it through "financial repression" (keeping interest rates low and allowing inflation to deal with debt. Do you know what real interest rates looked like from 1945 to 1980? -1.6% per annum. And now we have private sector debt on top of huge public debt.

People revert to the period 1980 to 2007 because it's the one most people are most familiar with. Interest rates were high over the period. But the fact of the matter is that the world cannot handle high interest rates. There is just too much debt out there.

It was called "stagflation", a never ending crisis of inflation and puny growth. It was only cured by Volcker increasing interest rates up to 20%.

Icepick

How about a 2bed apartment for 510,000

Peter File

That apartment is within the M50 though!!

quadrifoglio verde

NIMAN wrote: »

Still think the decision to take on a 35yr mortgage at that amount is a MASSIVE one to take, especially given our experience over the last 5 or 6 years.

35 years is an awful long time for a mortgage. If I had to take a 35yr mortgage to buy a home, I'd be thinking "I cant actually afford to buy", and continue renting. Owning a house isn't the be-all and end-all to put that kind of pressure on yourself and your family for 35yrs.

The lower repayment on a 35 year mortgage is great, you can overpay at the 20 year rate, but if **** hits the fan, you've got a bit of extra cushioning around you. If you've a 20 year mortgage, you can't, unless you've overpaid it.
When the time comes for a mortgage, I'll be looking for a35 year one but paying it back ASAP

Pocoyo

anncoates wrote: »

Irish people seem to have this touching idea that just because we had a property crash that there will never be cyclical supply and demand price increases ever again and if there is, it's down to some dastardly coalition of forces stopping the market finding its "real level" (houses in Dublin 6 for 100k)

Foolish statement of course irish people are suspicious houses just should not be this expensive unless they are villas or mansion dublin isnt london or newyork but we seem to be in there situation we should be following the german model,the irish people are being raped yet again.

marketty

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

The lower repayment on a 35 year mortgage is great, you can overpay at the 20 year rate, but if **** hits the fan, you've got a bit of extra cushioning around you. If you've a 20 year mortgage, you can't, unless you've overpaid it.
When the time comes for a mortgage, I'll be looking for a35 year one but paying it back ASAP

A 35 year mortgage is no big deal as long as you can easily afford it but with repayments of more than one partners entire salary I don't see any scope for overpaying, maybe if the couple in question are in their 20s and making that money early in their careers with great prospects ahead... and then bear in mind that if they do in fact do well for themselves and move up in salary 52%+ of that will be taken from them in taxation because they are high earners.
We have a 35 year mortgage but at a fraction of that amount, not overpaying currently as we are young and have different priorities, but certainly intend to make overpayments/lump sums in future. But if things don't play out as we would like, the mortgage is based on my salary alone and is affordable at that, if we had to go the full 35 years at the low repayment it wouldn't be the end of the world. As you say always worth having the option, too many people think a 35 year loan is always a bad idea.

CelticCub

o1s1n wrote: »

Wow, I'm really gobsmacked at that.

I work around that part of Dublin and there really is nothing around there other than housing estates, roads and more housing estates. Zero character or charm.

Nothing other that housing estates? Really??? What about Stepaside Village, Dundrum Town Centre (10 mins drive), Leopardstown Shopping Centre, The Park Carrickmines, Sandyford where thousands are employed, Marley Park, The Wicklow Mountains, Cabinteely Park, Enniskerry is 15 minutes drive away, numerous golf courses on your doorstep, horse riding stables, football clubs, GAA clubs, rugby clubs.............I suggest you get out into your ocmmunity a little more, these things dont come looking for you!

o1s1n

CelticCub wrote: »

Nothing other that housing estates? Really??? What about Stepaside Village, Dundrum Town Centre (10 mins drive), Leopardstown Shopping Centre, The Park Carrickmines, Sandyford where thousands are employed, Marley Park, The Wicklow Mountains, Cabinteely Park, Enniskerry is 15 minutes drive away, numerous golf courses on your doorstep, horse riding stables, football clubs, GAA clubs, rugby clubs.............I suggest you get out into your ocmmunity a little more, these things dont come looking for you!

If you factor in everywhere you can drive to then everywhere is great. Sure Old court in Bray that recently experienced bomb and arson attacks is a 5 minutes drive from Enniskerry, its also not very far away from most of the other locations you've mentioned, houses there must be worth 500k so.

The general locality of that area doesn't have much character in my opinion and is not worth anywhere near what people are starting to pay. It still has that freshly built quality where the area just hasn't matured enough.

Sandyford is a soulless mound of concrete and steel... Half finished buildings hanging on the skyline like a horrific skeletal reminder of the economic crash. Thankfully a lot of it is starting to be redeveloped, but its still completely artificial and bland.

I take it you probably own a house there so will take whatever I say extremely personally. No arguing with that really!

CelticCub

o1s1n wrote: »

If you factor in everywhere you can drive to then everywhere is great. Sure Old court in Bray that recently experienced bomb and arson attacks is a 5 minutes drive from Enniskerry, its also not very far away from most of the other locations you've mentioned, houses there must be worth 500k so.

The general locality of that area doesn't have much character in my opinion and is not worth anywhere near what people are starting to pay. It still has that freshly built quality where the area just hasn't matured enough.

Sandyford is a soulless mound of concrete and steel... Half finished buildings hanging on the skyline like a horrific skeletal reminder of the economic crash. Thankfully a lot of it is starting to be redeveloped, but its still completely artificial and bland.

I take it you probably own a house there so will take whatever I say extremely personally. No arguing with that really!

A property is worth what people are willing to pay for it, people value things that perhaps you do not - accesibility to the city, public transoprt links, good schools, close to the outdoor ammenities of the Wicklow mountains, quiet settled area (the Gallops where the houses were sold began construction over twenty years ago by Park Developments so no sure how it isnt 'mature') etc etc. I would love to know about these soulfull, mature areas that are affordable and suitable for bringing up a family in South Dublin.

If your refering to Sandyford Industrial Estate then yes it is a industrial development housing thousands of workers in a variety of new built offices - there is one partially completed building so your 'half skeletal buildings' line is inaccurate. Presumably you think the IFSC, East Point etc are all 'soulless mounds of concrete and stee'l too (very dramatic)

And not that it is relevant but just for calrity I dont own a property in the area.

morrga

Lockee wrote: »

Did these all sell ?

Yes they all sold within minutes of going on view. I think they are still taking bookings for cancellations.

Idbatterim

and then bear in mind that if they do in fact do well for themselves and move up in salary 52%+ of that will be taken from them in taxation because they are high earners.

yeah if they do well enough to earn E33,800 they are taxed at this rate, "high earners" LOL LOL!

Grandpa Hassan

Idbatterim wrote: »

on this subject, when you factor in all the etra income taxes, cost of living increases, salary cuts for some etc and the fact that the dirt cheap trackers are gone. Is affordability now with these recent price hikes even worse than the tiger years for desirable properties in Dublin? i.e. 3/4 bed in nices areas?

Things may be more expensive. But the difference now is that if you can't afford it then you can't borrow. Prices are bring bid up to crazy levels, but it isn't because of highly levered borrowings this time around. LTVs are much lower even if prices are the same