Humans need not apply

_Redzer_

Tail Docker wrote: »

Yes, they will be much better off on the Chinese Dole...no, hang on..

Bitch that they have work, bitch that they don't. No pleasing people.

Tail Docker

Logan Damaged Swatter wrote: »

Automation is a good thing. ATMS, self-serving checkouts and that robot butler I own have all made my own life infinitely more convenient. The only people against it are the man-with-a-Transit-and-a-shovel types afraid of being made obsolete by their metallic counterparts, or their own higher-ups who realise it's cheaper for now to get some unskilled nobody to drive a lorry for them rather than rely on a more expensive automatic system. We'll see how things are in ten to fifteen years.

Dig taken, processed and laughed at. Have your robo-butler pour you some more sherry and chillax. You'll do yourself a mischief.;)

Tail Docker

ScumLord wrote: »

I can see it coming in gradually, say on US highways, doing point to point delivery to large warehouses, where loading and unloading in done by other automated loading machines. Maybe then it becomes cheaper for local businesses to store their stock with the automated warehouse than it would be to maintain their own stock facility. That leads to better robots able to do harder runs.


The big difference as pointed out in the video is the intelligence of robots has taken a dramatic upswing by letting them teach themselves. Driving a truck won't be that difficult for them, they'll have cameras all around the truck giving them a better 360 view and can drive non-stop. That's going to lead to massive cost savings.


The only problem with all these robots taking our jobs is that they won't want to buy any of the crap their making. If consumers don't have money then the global economy simply doesn't work anymore. The robots putting people out of work are ultimately putting themselves out of work too.

It could all lead to a very different world 100 years from now, our current way of life just isn't sustainable.

Easons installed a robotic picking facility, "to improve service to customers". It has almost bust them.. As did Uniphar, and it did bust them... and I spent all morning unmangling a state-of-my-ar5e garment unloading machine today that decided to self-destruct and ingest it's own bits.. there's a long way to go yet. But contrary to what old Frada implied earlier, I love machines, especially complex ones, and especially when they go wrong.

Alun

_Redzer_ wrote: »

Going by moor's law, transistors in computers will match the neutrons in the human brain in the early 2020s. It's only going to double from there every 18 months (if moor's law is still relevant by then).

Neurons maybe, neutrons, not a chance

Smidge

Fecking robots, coming over here taking our jobs.
De tuk er jobz

Holsten

Tail Docker wrote: »

Robot trucks. Not.ever.going.to.happen.ever.
Too dangerous if out of control, too many variables with traffic and complex routes and changes, too much fine judgement required to maneuver them and lets see a robot hop out and strap down the load/sense that it has shifted/close/open a curtainsider. Robot gearboxes are the height of it.

Gotta be sarcasm.

EVERY driving type job will be done by a computer in the near future, every single last one of them. Taxis, trucks, trains, ambulances, post, food delivery, everything.

It won't work the way its intended if you have humans to mess it up.

Ruu

My days are numbered as a bottle cap screwer.

Cosmo K

I'd like to hear the official response from Skynet to that video......

Davarus Walrus

I've been at a number of lectures and symposiums recently about smart cities and the development of increasingly pervasive technology. The idea of self-driving cars and trucks isn't even that futuristic, as much of the technology is already there. It isn't even that complex a problem. Gartner are predicting the availability of fully autonomous vehicles within 5 years. Mesh networking, complex event processing, and machine-to-machine communication are moving out of the research labs and into industry.

Tail Docker

Holsten wrote: »

Gotta be sarcasm.

EVERY driving type job will be done by a computer in the near future, every single last one of them. Taxis, trucks, trains, ambulances, post, food delivery, everything.

It won't work the way its intended if you have humans to mess it up.

Not a hope. I'll just bung in here that's that what I do - AGV systems. There's a nice one in Hewlett Packard, the robotic vehicles transport stock within the plant. I fitted the guidance system. Same goes for Pfizer, again, me. And penneys, and Glaxosmithkline, and uniphar and almost every other agv system in Ireland. They are within strictly defined guidepaths with no variation or pedestrians. Out in the world? LOL. Good luck with that. There would be carnage.

stimpson

I, for one, welcome our insect warehousing overlords:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWsMdN7HMuA

professore

_Redzer_ wrote: »

Funny how science fiction sometimes has a habit of turning into reality.

Going by moor's law, transistors in computers will match the neutrons in the human brain in the early 2020s. It's only going to double from there every 18 months (if moor's law is still relevant by then).

There's going to be autonomous robots like in iRobot around by 2100, easily. They'll be taking many of our menial jobs too.

EDIT: obviously the place won't be swarming with them, but they'll at that level. Technology moves ridiculously fast and it's only 2014. Compare 1914 to 2000 to get an idea of how fast things move. And it only moves faster.

Just adding more transistors won't make chips magically intelligent. We still don't know how that works.

_Redzer_

Alun wrote: »

Neurons maybe, neutrons, not a chance

It's been a long day

Tail Docker

stimpson wrote: »

I, for one, welcome our insect warehousing overlords:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWsMdN7HMuA

See the guide mesh in the floor - that's emitting a radio-frequency, which combined with embedded RFID transponders, tell the vehicle exactly where they are and the correct travvel speed/distance to turn. Any break in the mesh and the system goes down. Thats a superflat class 1 floor, it has to be to work. Try getting superflat class 1 roads..that's 1-3 mm variation per m on average with no tolerance for cracking or expansion/contraction. Takes a bit of doing. Try bunging in rain, wind and snow..

Supernintento Chalmers

Tail Docker wrote: »

Not a hope. I'll just bung in here that's that what I do - AGV systems. There's a nice one in Hewlett Packard, the robotic vehicles transport stock within the plant. I fitted the guidance system. Same goes for Pfizer, again, me. And penneys, and Glaxosmithkline, and uniphar and almost every other agv system in Ireland. They are within strictly defined guidepaths with no variation or pedestrians. Out in the world? LOL. Good luck with that. There would be carnage.

Tail Docker wrote: »

I got a text a few hours ago from a client - blocked public toilet, send someone first thing tomorrow. That will cost them, they don't charge for its use, so it's dead money for them. If it was my jax, I'd charge people to use it. Toilets block, break, need cleaning, paper, need complete overhauls costing tens of thousands. And now, water costs too... so why not charge? Also, 20c is really not that big a deal.

So your conglomerate fits AGV systems and unblocks a nasty build-up of scutter from jacks? That's quite a diversified range of services you offer. I may have heard of your group of companies. Mitty Inc.

mariaalice

I cant see it turning out exactly like that, every day life and our interaction with the environment is very complex its very hard to replicate.

Do you think eventually our knowledge will come straight from our brains on to the compute with out using a keyboard... for example if you were an engineer could the drawings come straight from your brain and on to the computer without you having to use you hands at all, you just think the drawings and they appear?

Get Real

“Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in 10 years.” -– Alex Lewyt, president of vacuum cleaner company Lewyt Corp. 1955

In "Economic Possibilities", the economist John Maynard Keynes predicted that at a reasonabe average rate of growth of 2%, people would eventually only have to work a 15 hour week, this was back in the 1920s.

The introduction of technology to replace jobs (if it even happens) will not result in masses of unemployed people. How would economies grow and what consumer demand would there be?

Back in the day, messengers on horse back were put out of jobs, boatsmen on the Liffey transporting Guinness were replaced with machines etc.

It does not mean there are thousands of unemployed Guinness boat men today.

65% of jobs in 50 years haven't even been invented yet (from what I've read, could be wrong) but this seems to hold true. Look at the amount of jobs 50 or 60 years ago that didn't exist.

So while technology may improve, I don't think this will lead to the mass replacement of humans for bad reasons (in the longer term), and thats if it even happens, as this kind of thing has been predicted before.

sink

Tail Docker wrote: »

See the guide mesh in the floor - that's emitting a radio-frequency, which combined with embedded RFID transponders, tell the vehicle exactly where they are and the correct travvel speed/distance to turn. Any break in the mesh and the system goes down. Thats a superflat class 1 floor, it has to be to work. Try getting superflat class 1 roads..that's 1-3 mm variation per m on average. Takes a bit of doing. Try bunging in rain, wind and snow..

That technology was developed 10 years ago, things are moving forward fast. Google self drive cars use an active lidar/radar with 360 degree vision and intelligent learning algorithms. So far they have driven over 1 million km on public roads with traffic, cyclists pedestrians without incident (apart from being rear ended at a traffic light). They are sill improving.

Tail Docker

Supernintento Chalmers wrote: »

So your conglomerate fits AGV systems and unblocks a nasty build-up of scutter from jacks? That's quite a diversified range of services you offer. I may have heard of your group of companies. Mitty Inc.

Nope. We have installed over 100,000m of agv guidance. Biggest in the country at it by volume installed as it happens. Not just a one trick pony Supernintendo. Lots of strings to the bow and all that. Also unblock an awful lot of toilets though. Not as glamorous, but there you go. Mad, eh?

Tail Docker

sink wrote: »

That technology was developed 10 years ago, things are moving forward fast. Google self drive cars use an active lidar/radar with 360 degree vision and intelligent learning algorithms. So far they have driven over 1 million km on public roads with traffic, cyclists pedestrians without incident (apart from being rear ended at a traffic light). They are sill improving.

Very aware of that, just bung out a costing on the vehicle there and the level of supervision required to date? BTW, old school agv systems are super reliable too, but cost prohibitive - it is bloody dear gear. Many are going back to operated vehicles for the flexibility and lower costs, even with labour.

gctest50

Tail Docker wrote: »

..... Try bunging in rain, wind and snow..

be grand ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XNiQ0jDgPk

til the toasters start scheming with the mine trucks


.

sink

Tail Docker wrote: »

Very aware of that, just bung out a costing on the vehicle there and the level of supervision required to date? BTW, old school agv systems are super reliable too, but cost prohibitive - it is bloody dear gear. Many are going back to operated vehicles for the flexibility and lower costs, even with labour.

Correct me if i'm wrong but I imagine the cost of the type of systems you install is high because. A it has to be finely tuned to it's specific operating environment B it is still relatively niche, i.e. lack of economies of scale. Neither of which will be true of a self drive car. Once they are ready for the market I imagine Google will be banking on selling millions, making individual units relatively cheap (just a little more expensive than a regular car).

Ditch

The Adversary wrote: »

Don't worry, we'll be after blowing each other up with nuclear weapons by the time the machines rise up and take over.

House of Blaze wrote: »

Nukes would actually help stem the rise of the machines too, due to the large EMP generated by a nuclear blast.

So you know... every cloud and all that!

Even a mushroom one ....? :pac:

smash

I'd hate for my self driving car to get a blue screen while doing 120 on a motorway.

sink

smash wrote: »

I'd hate for my self driving car to get a blue screen while doing 120 on a motorway.

Considering that most modern cars are already to a very large degree computer controlled including breaking, acceleration and steering, this will be no more of a problem than it already is. These types of computer system are fundamentally different to your standard PC and are run on real time operating systems, they don't queue tasks and distribute resources amongst competing processes the same way and therefore they don't hang / crash anywhere near as much.

Tail Docker

sink wrote: »

Considering that most modern cars are already to a very large degree computer controlled including breaking, acceleration and steering, this will be no more of a problem than it already is. These types of computer system are fundamentally different to your standard PC and are run on real time operating systems, they don't queue tasks and distribute resources amongst competing processes the same way and therefore they don't hang / crash anywhere near as much.

I'm gonna chuck in my Mrs Doyle bit here - "But maybe I like the misery of driving..."

Davarus Walrus

The era of having some long-faced gobdaw picking his nose as he drives an articulated lorry down a motorway hasn't more than 20 years to go. It's the type of low-end job that can be automated and done more efficiently by technology. Even Finland, a country where they love driving, is bringing in legislation to allow autonomous vehicles on public roads. With ice, snow and all the other conditions that other posters are saying are a barrier to the introduction of such vehicles.

The Second Machine Age is a recently published book by two MIT researchers which gives a great account of how this technology is all ready changing our lives, and how these technologies are going to radically change economies, work patterns and societies. Better to read it and form an objective viewpoint than to just put the head in the sand and hope this stuff will go away.

Tail Docker

Davarus Walrus wrote: »

The era of having some long-faced gobdaw picking his nose as he drives an articulated lorry down a motorway hasn't more than 20 years to go. It's the type of low-end job that can be automated and done more efficiently by technology. Even Finland, a country where they love driving, is bringing in legislation to allow autonomous vehicles on public roads. With ice, snow and all the other conditions that other posters are saying are a barrier to the introduction of such vehicles.

The Second Machine Age is a recently published book by two MIT researchers which gives a great account of how this technology is all ready changing our lives, and how these technologies are going to radically change economies, work patterns and societies. Better to read it and form an objective viewpoint than to just put the head in the sand and hope this stuff will go away.

Sounds good on a screen. Getting insurance cover for a 40 ton agv out feral could be trickier. People would be falling over each other to get clipped by them and sue. I believe anti-collision, automatic speed regulation, lane guidance and advanced "cruise control" will no doubt come in and make huge strides, but driverless will never be a runner in any of our lifetimes. Go back a few years, it seems by the year 2000 we will all be driving hover-cars, which is great.

Davarus Walrus

Tail Docker wrote: »

Sounds good on a screen. Getting insurance cover for a 40 ton agv out feral could be trickier. People would be falling over each other to get clipped by them and sue. I believe anti-collision, automatic speed regulation, lane guidance and advanced "cruise control" will no doubt come in and make huge strides, but driverless will never be a runner in any of our lifetimes. Go back a few years, it seems by the year 2000 we will all be driving hover-cars, which is great.

Why would people want to get clipped by an autonomous vehicle more than by a lorry driven by a man wear a pair of tracksuit bottoms and a Manchester United jersey?

Removing the human factor from an inherently dangerous pursuit like driving a car is a great use-case for technology. It's also a lucrative technology.

Tail Docker

Davarus Walrus wrote: »

Why would people want to get clipped by an autonomous vehicle more than by a lorry driven by a man wear a pair of tracksuit bottoms and a Manchester United jersey?

Removing the human factor from an inherently dangerous pursuit like driving a car is a great use-case for technology. It's also a lucrative technology.

You ride a bicycle, right? A lot of people love driving, they won't want the "human factor" removed. So there's another "stumbling block". "AGVs took our jobs...burn the agvs..." You may also want to do a few sums on how many trucks there are on our roads. It's somwhere > lots. And in all shapes, sizes, bodies and equipment. One size does not fit all.