Humans need not apply

sink

CPG Grey just posted a new video of which the basic summation is that we're on the verge of a major revolution in automation. Machines are reaching an apex at which they will out compete humans in as much as 45% of current jobs over the next 20 years and there will not be enough new economy jobs to replace them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

I currently work as a website administrator so I think i'm safe for a while. However if you're a taxi or truck driver, I would seriously recommend considering your options for the future.

Such monumental change is scary, however I think if it's managed right it could turn out very well on the other hand **** could go very badly wrong.

darkpagandeath

Well judging by the dislike of giving people welfare now I'm going with very badly, I mean if this kind of stuff takes off and we become hugely mechanised. Governments would have to give people money for a regular standard of living, and if you wanted more you would have to find some kind of job.

Wompa1

Bill Gates has suggested that in the past too. The two lads at Google have suggested standardizing on a shorter work week. I went to a conference recently that suggested, task workers in Offices will suffer greatly and the few remaining will be working from home...Offices will become data centers with very little actual office space.

House of Blaze

That's actually good for me in a perverse way (Unemployed IT grad)

More robots = more work for me!

kneemos

Been hearing about the machines taking over since the seventies.Believe it when I see it.

The Adversary

Don't worry, we'll be after blowing each other up with nuclear weapons by the time the machines rise up and take over.

House of Blaze

The Adversary wrote: »

Don't worry, we'll be after blowing each other up with nuclear weapons by the time the machines rise up and take over.

Nukes would actually help stem the rise of the machines too, due to the large EMP generated by a nuclear blast.

So you know... every cloud and all that!

Annasopra

darkpagandeath wrote: »

Well judging by the dislike of giving people welfare now I'm going with very badly, I mean if this kind of stuff takes off and we become hugely mechanised. Governments would have to give people money for a regular standard of living, and if you wanted more you would have to find some kind of job.

Indeed. Perhaps a universal basic income is not such a bad idea after all.

Tail Docker

Robot trucks. Not.ever.going.to.happen.ever.
Too dangerous if out of control, too many variables with traffic and complex routes and changes, too much fine judgement required to maneuver them and lets see a robot hop out and strap down the load/sense that it has shifted/close/open a curtainsider. Robot gearboxes are the height of it.

The Dagda

I'm guessing Automation and Robots will only be needed in places where stuff is mass produced.

There's not much mass production here in Ireland so I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we'll be grand.

c_man

kneemos wrote: »

Been hearing about the machines taking over since the seventies.Believe it when I see it.

Head down to your local supermarket

_Redzer_

Funny how science fiction sometimes has a habit of turning into reality.

Going by moor's law, transistors in computers will match the neutrons in the human brain in the early 2020s. It's only going to double from there every 18 months (if moor's law is still relevant by then).

There's going to be autonomous robots like in iRobot around by 2100, easily. They'll be taking many of our menial jobs too.

EDIT: obviously the place won't be swarming with them, but they'll at that level. Technology moves ridiculously fast and it's only 2014. Compare 1914 to 2000 to get an idea of how fast things move. And it only moves faster.

The One Doctor

People were saying this when the spinning jenny was introduced. People who espouse this sort of thing clearly have no relevant knowledge of the past.

shruikan2553

As much as I wish for a world where people dont have to work and can do stuff that interests them like research or art it wont happen for a long time. The cost will keep it back for a long time until the robots are cheap.

House of Blaze

_Redzer_ wrote: »

Funny how science fiction sometimes has a habit of turning into reality.

Going by moor's law, transistors in computers will match the neutrons in the human brain in the early 2020s. It's only going to double from there every 18 months (if moor's law is still relevant by then).

There's going to be autonomous robots like in iRobot around by 2100, easily. They'll be taking many of our menial jobs too.

It's really not though.

Moore's law isn't really a 'law' like the laws of thermodynamics or something. It's just a guideline basically.

The number of transistors that can fit on a chip is still bound by the laws of physics. At smaller and smaller scales you reach the atomic limits of what is possible to do with electronics.

Barring a paradigm shift in computing to quantum or bio computing or something Moore's law will actually be finished by that time rather than just getting started.

I think it was IBM that made a transistor not long ago out of like three atoms or something...

EDIT: It's actually down to a one atom transistor now! http://mashable.com/2012/02/20/transistor-atom/

The Backwards Man

Look at how automation has eliminated slavery and child exploitation throughout the world for the last hundred ye. . . oh wait.

Tail Docker

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Look at how automation has eliminated slavery and child exploitation throughout the world for the last hundred ye. . . oh wait.

Indeed, I for one am delighted that sweat-shops have become a thing of the past through the wonders of automation.

House of Blaze

Tail Docker wrote: »

Indeed, I for one am delighted that sweat-shops have become a thing of the past through the wonders of automation.

Ah they haven't gone away... but boy can those kids churn out jeans now with the help!

_Redzer_

House of Blaze wrote: »

It's really not though.

Moore's law isn't really a 'law' like the laws of thermodynamics or something. It's just a guideline basically.

The number of transistors that can fit on a chip is still bound by the laws of physics. At smaller and smaller scales you reach the atomic limits of what is possible to do with electronics.

Barring a paradigm shift in computing to quantum or bio computing or something Moore's law will actually be finished by that time rather than just getting started.

I think it was IBM that made a transistor not long ago out of like three atoms or something...

EDIT: It's actually down to a one atom transistor now! http://mashable.com/2012/02/20/transistor-atom/

I know, that's why I said if it's still relevant. I know ARM chips are already manufactured and researched in such a way that they exceed moor's law...for now.

Tail Docker

House of Blaze wrote: »

Ah they haven't gone away... but boy can those kids churn out jeans now with the help!

Yup. But the machines without the kids...not so much..

_Redzer_

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Look at how automation has eliminated slavery and child exploitation throughout the world for the last hundred ye. . . oh wait.

I think I read that Apple are replacing over a million works with robots in their manufacturing factories. Given the conditions they're under, that's a pretty good step.

smash

Robots will never be intelligent like humans. They will be able to solve problems faster than us, but only because they can process information faster than us, but only after we provide the information and parameters needed for them to do so. Just look up IMB Watson.

c_man

The One Doctor wrote: »

People were saying this when the spinning jenny was introduced. People who espouse this sort of thing clearly have no relevant knowledge of the past.

I think the video was rather well put together and he makes some interesting (albeit familiar to me) points. Give it a watch, go on.

csallmighty

We can't let this happen. Haven't you guys seen The Terminator

Tail Docker

_Redzer_ wrote: »

I think I read that Apple are replacing over a million works with robots in their manufacturing factories. Given the conditions they're under, that's a pretty good step.

Yes, they will be much better off on the Chinese Dole...no, hang on..

4zn76tysfajdxp

Automation is a good thing. ATMS, self-serving checkouts and that robot butler I own have all made my own life infinitely more convenient. The only people against it are the man-with-a-Transit-and-a-shovel types afraid of being made obsolete by their metallic counterparts, or their own higher-ups who realise it's cheaper for now to get some unskilled nobody to drive a lorry for them rather than rely on a more expensive automatic system. We'll see how things are in ten to fifteen years.

Bigus

Where's the paperless office so, we had that 20 years ago but it didn't work .

It'll be 100 years plus before we see this if ever.

Plus as an example the horse industry hasn't been wiped out by the car/automobile yet , even a hundred years on,

ok it's very different now, a high value low volume equine industry, so maybe a good indicative model,

plus in the event of a catastrophe I see donkeys back in demand on a certain Iraqi mountain (god help them souls) so when things go wrong were all back to basics.

--LOS--

I used the check your own luggage thing at the airport today for the first time. Even when the machine told me the luggage label was self adhesive, I didn't believe it because it wasn't sticky to the touch. But sure enough it was right, there was nothing to peel so I gave up trying to Damn machines so smart

_Redzer_

smash wrote: »

Robots will never be intelligent like humans. They will be able to solve problems faster than us, but only because they can process information faster than us, but only after we provide the information and parameters needed for them to do so.

There's already robots being developed that can learn. Self aware robotics is completely possible.

Sure that's what we are. Nothing but 100 billion biological transistors with programming. Yet we can learn. It'll take a long while, but we'll get there.

Tail Docker

csallmighty wrote: »

We can't let this happen. Haven't you guys seen The Terminator

Be at your door in ten - you're doomed, resistance boy.

ScumLord

Tail Docker wrote: »

Robot trucks. Not.ever.going.to.happen.ever.
Too dangerous if out of control, too many variables with traffic and complex routes and changes, too much fine judgement required to maneuver them and lets see a robot hop out and strap down the load/sense that it has shifted/close/open a curtainsider. Robot gearboxes are the height of it.

I can see it coming in gradually, say on US highways, doing point to point delivery to large warehouses, where loading and unloading in done by other automated loading machines. Maybe then it becomes cheaper for local businesses to store their stock with the automated warehouse than it would be to maintain their own stock facility. That leads to better robots able to do harder runs.


The big difference as pointed out in the video is the intelligence of robots has taken a dramatic upswing by letting them teach themselves. Driving a truck won't be that difficult for them, they'll have cameras all around the truck giving them a better 360 view and can drive non-stop. That's going to lead to massive cost savings.


The only problem with all these robots taking our jobs is that they won't want to buy any of the crap their making. If consumers don't have money then the global economy simply doesn't work anymore. The robots putting people out of work are ultimately putting themselves out of work too.

It could all lead to a very different world 100 years from now, our current way of life just isn't sustainable.