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The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1
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force eleven wrote: »Next weekends ECM charts scream potential. *whispers loudly* Polar lows....
They do indeed with screaming northerlies coming in over Ireland and Britain with a deep low extending into Europe from the North. The Atlantic looks cut off............but only on these charts which are nearly a week away.
Dare I say it but have we not all learned from the recent models that the reality is somewhat much different what is being projected?
I would treat the current charts with extreme caution until they are at T+48 or T+72.
The alternative is that people get carried away with charts at T+168 showing very cold weather with snow and take this at full 100% face value. Then they wonder why they are disappointed next week when the Atlantic breaks through
Surely that pattern of behavior is starting to become somewhat draining for most weather board posters ? 
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They do indeed with screaming northerlies coming in over Ireland and Britain with a deep low extending into Europe from the North. The Atlantic looks cut off............but only on these charts which are nearly a week away.
Dare I say it but have we not all learned from the recent models that the reality is somewhat much different what is being projected? I would treat the current charts with extreme caution until they are at T+48 or T+72.
The alternative is that people get carried away with charts at T+168 showing very cold weather with snow and take this at full 100% face value. Then they wonder why they are disappointed next week when the Atlantic breaks through Surely that pattern of behavior is starting to become somewhat draining for most weather board posters ?
D
I will never drain away... I'm off to buy ski's and warm clothes, for next weekend.
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rickdangerouss wrote: »I will never drain away... I'm off to buy ski's and warm clothes, for next weekend.
Now that is what I call optimism!
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Wednesday night, Thursday, Thursday night is an almost nationwide show shower fest driven along on a near gale force wind coupled with real instability. A potentially disruptive period increasingly likely. I assume/hope the salt is ready to go.
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Kermit...any sign of an easterly element to the winds?
I suppose it's conceivable eventually. Main point though is the northwesterly and then northerly winds in to the weekend. This has all the hallmarks of a volatile synoptic forecast from then on. No real point looking beyond that. For an easterly the trough has to really dig down further in to the continent and preferably directly south of us. That is not being progged yet on any model but it's a long way out.
The profile of the jet stream is more and more favorable for an easterly incursion at some point though. This is what we want to see. Everything north/south.
A "problem" (depending on your point of view!) is the mixing of the air mass after the initially northwesterly blast due to that area of low pressure just sitting and meandering around in the north sea for so long (due to weak jet). If that's how it turns out in the end there will be some mild sectors as well which is normal in these set ups but is more likely to result in rain or sleet rather than snow.
Main thing is snow showers later Wednesday night, Thursday and Thursday night - and lots of them.0 -
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12z ECM has the cold snap starting later Tuesday night and lasting right the way through to beyond the end of the run. Very good run if you want cold, ice and snow.
Wednesday 12 pm 96 hrs
Friday 12 pm 144 hrs
Sunday 1st Feb 192 hrs
Tuesday 3rd Feb 240 hrs
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Kermit.de.frog wrote: »12z ECM has the cold snap starting later Tuesday night and lasting right the way through to beyond the end of the run. Very good run if you want cold, ice and snow.
Could we use the word 'spell' instead of 'snap' please. Snap to me means 3 or 4 days of cold max. This could be longer than that as you alluded to.
Cold spell/blast would be much better. 0 -
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Aye,it's a stronger longer version of the spell last Tuesday weekKermit.de.frog wrote: »If the mods give the ok I can one together if they like. I don't want to be seen as "thread spamming" - wait and see what a moderator says. I don't think it's needed for a couple of days myself till the specifics are pinned down. Almost certain heavy and frequent snow showers and settling snow from later Wednesday night particularly north and west but not exclusively!
From an imby eastern perspective,this is about as useful to Dublin -Wexford as the 2010 north easterlies were to Kerry
Unless it nuances a bit as the details firm up with some North easterlies to spread the wealth like
Masses of potential in Sligo and mayo and inland a good chunk from those counties to say Longford all of Ulster and west Munster and north Leinster
I feel sorry for mountainyman because he may get a track machine to dig out to be honest if this pans out :eek:0 -
WheatenBriar wrote: »Aye,it's a stronger longer version of the spell last Tuesday week
From an imby eastern perspective,this is about as useful to Dublin -Wexford as the 2010 north easterlies were to Kerry
Unless it nuances a bit as the details firm up with some North easterlies to spread the wealth like
Masses of potential in Sligo and mayo and inland a good chunk from those counties to say Longford all of Ulster and west Munster and north Leinster
I feel sorry for mountainyman because he may get a track machine to dig out to be honest if this pans out :eek:
I think given the strong winds and direction (one of the shortest west to east land tracks), the unstable nature of the flow (there will be massive showers coming in off the Atlantic similar to last time) and it's just that little bit later with a little bit more energy from the light bulb in the sky you may be surprised!
Don't normally but what the hell
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From Derek Brockway BBC Wales tweet,this screen grab sort of underlines how good rare true polar north/ nortwesterlies are for the west and north and Midlands but not for the East as they also divert the great Irish sea snow machine into Wales
http://imgur.com/dzfKzhA0 -
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This discussion has been closed.
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