Tour de Nibali Stage 16 – July 22nd, Carcassone - Bagneres de L **Unmasked Spoilers**

Darkglasses

So I might be being Cpt. Obvious, but it is clear that the final climb and more importantly, the descent will be decisive in this stage. The analysts appear to favour an early to mid breakaway staying away for the win, but I personally fancy a select group making the catch over the difficult climbs and the winner coming from a brave soul who can make the right attack with a few km to go. My own choice for this one is Michael "Dodge" Rogers. I don't think the variable nature of the Port de Bales suits him, but I do think he's one of the stronger descenders apart from Nibali, who may or may not choose to go for another stage. If he does, I of course think he'll take it handily. Not too simple to pick a winner here, but Giovanni Visconti also has all the right characteristics also (thanks Aoibheann )

Oddschecker: Nibali 7/1, Rogers 8/1, Rodriguez 12/1, Valverde 12/1, Majka 12/1, Voeckler 13/1

Some of you are getting into dangerous territory, so I will remind everybody right now - do not even hint that somebody has doped if it has not been proven in the public domain. Do so, and you will be taking a holiday from the forum for the rest of the race.

seany15

Rodriguez

Rogers for me too. He's aways one of the best descenders. Balls of steel.

lennymc

I did some of those climbs a few years ago. Will be interesting to see how much quicker I was than the pros.....

Idleater

lennymc wrote: »

I did some of those climbs a few years ago. Will be interesting to see how much quicker I was than the pros.....

Portet dAspet and Ares was lovely.

lennymc

I think ares turned into an impromptu race....

Lovely little restaurant at the top.

ZiabR

Rodriguez

Rogers for me.

boydkev

Majka

valverde will do it today

retalivity

Nieve off the leash

gordongekko

Rio costa out so it's time for Horner to unleash the beast.

buffalo

Rodriguez

gordongekko wrote: »

Rio costa out so it's time for Horner to unleash the beast.

Just saw that, would've thought today would've suited Costa. Ah well.

Cookie_Monster

boydkev wrote: »

valverde will do it today

but who will drag him within sight of the finish line then?

Koobcam

Rodriguez needs points to keep the KoM jersey, so he might fancy being first over the last climb, and sure he might as well keep going then for the stage..

ROK ON

lennymc wrote: »

I did some of those climbs a few years ago. Will be interesting to see how much quicker I was than the pros.....

Idleater wrote: »

Portet dAspet and Ares was lovely.

Lenny - they are climbing the route we descended and vice versa.

Agree that these we lovely climbs.
I know the area that te first 85km traverses vert well. It is a stunning area with field upon field of sunflowers. Should look spectacular.

retalivity

The Orica Greenedge bus strikes again!

Brian?

Costa

Nico's turn today I reckon. He's a fairly decent descender, much like his Da.

Daroxtar

Kwiatkowski

Sagan to finally time it right

Or probably not

Pudsy33

Brian? wrote: »

Nico's turn today I reckon. He's a fairly decent descender, much like his Da.

He's not in the break so I can't see it. Mick Rodgers is however.

Darkglasses

Rodriguez

Today's 21 man breakaway - Michal Kwiatkowski (Omega Pharma-QuickStep), Jan Bakelants (Omega Pharma-QuickStep), Cyril Gautier (Europcar), Michael Rogers (Tinkoff-Saxo), Tony Gallopin (Lotto-Belisol), Greg van Avermaet (BMC), Jon Izagirre (Movistar), Jose Serpa (Lampre-Merida), Thomas Voeckler (Europcar), Jens Keukeleire (Orica-GreenEdge), Tom Jelte Slagter (Garmin-Sharp), Michael Albasini (Orica-GreenEdge), Jeremy Roy (FDJ), Matteo Montaguti (AG2R-La Mondiale), Kevin Reza (Europcar), Samuel Dumoulin (AG2R-La Mondiale), Anthony Delaplace (Bretagne Séché Environment), Vasil Kiryienka (Sky), Florian Vachon (Bretagne Séché Environment), Bernard Eisel (Sky), Roger Kluge (IAM Cycling).

Really strong group

IP freely

Kwiatkowski

This one is shaping up nicely, should be a good finish. the key is in the decent methinks.

IPF

IP freely

Kwiatkowski

9 minute gap now. Very strong breakaway too, can't see them being caught myself.

IPF

mal1

Majka

I cycled these last year, tough but the gradient is that tough from what i remember. I can't look past Rogers after seeing him at the Giro. Thomas Voeckler has got support but Rogers doesn't need it.

MPFG

Rodgers is a great descender but Kwia & Gallopin are excellent also

Rodgers is the better climber of the 3 so he has to attack before the top of Port de Bales because the others 2 are very good on descent and sprint finish

MPFG

Brian? wrote: »

Nico's turn today I reckon. He's a fairly decent descender, much like his Da.

Tomorrow I think

Pudsy33

This Plus500 add is slightly perverse.

IP freely

Kwiatkowski

Pudsy33 wrote: »

This Plus500 add is slightly perverse.

Sex sells!

letape

Visconti

I spent a week in Luchon myself in 2010 and climbed today and tomorrow's climbs.

Port de Bales from this side is a beautiful climb and is being climbed from the same side as in 2010 where the wheels of Lance's 2010 tour came off as did Schleck's chain!

Col de Portillon tomorrow is also a nice if more unknown climb - short and steep!

Kwiatkowski is my vote for today,

Darkglasses

Rodriguez

Ha, Serpa being a bollix

dastardly00

The breakaway have a whopping 11min 12sec advantage now.

pelevin

Rodriguez

Is it some kind of exercise in black comedy these Israel tourism ads? I would imagine the response of the vast majority would be "Are they f.....g for real?"

pajor

Visconti

Just tuned in. 12 mins is some gap.

My vote is for Kwia as he as the most to gain from today. Rogers though is probably a more likely candidate.

Though I suppose voting now is a bit of a cheat.

cityman 18

pelevin wrote: »

Is it some kind of exercise in black comedy these Israel tourism ads? I would imagine the response of the vast majority would be "Are they f.....g for real?"

The land of creation apparently...:rolleyes:

neris

just tunred on. looks like their fairly going hell for leather. like to see rogers pull this one off

cityman 18

Just saw Nico near Richie Porte about 16 mins back.

neris

and they were complaining about the fans in yorkshire

SomeFool

fair play to Pinot, really putting the pressure on Bardet today.

Darkglasses

Rodriguez

Pretty bad form of Peraud to ride away from Bardet I think, he's going to lose a tonne of time. Good on Pinot though, onto the podium as it stands.

retalivity

Darkglasses wrote: »

Pretty bad form of Peraud to ride away from Bardet I think, he's going to lose a tonne of time. Good on Pinot though, onto the podium as it stands.

AG2R seem to be going for the team classification so would want to keep as many people as far up the road as possible

SomeFool

Darkglasses wrote: »

Pretty bad form of Peraud to ride away from Bardet I think, he's going to lose a tonne of time. Good on Pinot though, onto the podium as it stands.

Given Perauds overall spot it's hard to blame him for hanging on, just as it seemed AG2R were a team with a plan!

Darkglasses

Rodriguez

Valverde's in a spot of bother!

REBELSAFC

Darkglasses wrote: »

Ha, Serpa being a bollix

First the "Colombian Mountain Goats" and now Sherpas taking over cycling.

Surely their high altitude upbringing in the Himalayas puts them at an unfair advantage.

REBELSAFC

SomeFool wrote: »

Given Perauds overall spot it's hard to blame him for hanging on, just as it seemed AG2R were a team with a plan!

Peraud...........Bardet
Gadret...........Roche

Darkglasses

Rodriguez

Pinot looks absolutely fantastic today, so impressed

neris

lining up for a good finish.

pajor

Visconti

I think we have a winner already.

retalivity

this might be the first time I ever won a bet on an actual stage!!!

IP freely

Kwiatkowski

Awesome turn of pace at the 4KM to go by Rodgers. Stunning victory, how did he keep all that energy stored up after the climb I don't know!

Today has split the field somewhat. Great stage.

DDC1990

Delighted for Mick.

SomeFool

IP freely wrote: »

Awesome turn of pace at the 4KM to go by Rodgers. Stunning victory, how did he keep all that energy stored up after the climb I don't know!

Today has split the field somewhat. Great stage.

3 time world TT champion and an excellent descender!

pajor

Visconti

That car that blocked Nibali was some tit. What was going on there?

retalivity

fcuk off valverde

neris

Cavendish on itv