July 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

So it's the usual questions and a bonus, some folks have already ]entered directly on this thread as there was a delay in getting an entry form up, but now you can enter the usual way.


1. IMT for the five stations, 1981-2010 average was 15.2

2. MAX for the met.ie stations.

3. MIN for the met.ie stations.

4. PRC (rainfall) as % of normal for the eleven stations used.

5. SUN as % of normal for the six stations used.

6. BONUS --
part 1 give the highest Max temp at any met.ie location for Saturday 5th July.
part 2 -- which of the five IMT stations will it be at or closest to, those being Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park Carlow or Shannon. You don't need to indicate where exactly, just which zone.

For the bonus, here's a sample answer to show how little you need to type:

25.0 (in first bonus box)
CLA (in second bonus box) (although you think it will perhaps be at Newport or Finner, etc)


Entries are due by 0300h Wed 2 July, and the penalties are 5% per half-day after that. The bonus question will also be scaled by one point deduction per half-day late.

You can now use this entry form:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

Good luck. If you already entered below, no further action required.

Tae laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

somewhere closer to Shannon than any other IMT location.

Closer in Temperature or in Distance?

Do you mean which of the 5 will have the highest temp?

M.T. Cranium

Looking for the highest temperature at any station, then is that station close to (or possibly at) one of the five IMT sites. Example, highest is Moorepark, that's closer to Shannon than any other IMT site, so answer is your temp at SHA. (This was supposed to be from a menu on the form, so it seems like a dumb idea now).

If you believe the highest max will be in Connacht then go CLA, if in the southeast, go OAK, if in the Dublin area go CAS and if in the Midlands go MUL.

We could go with exact station -- but if anyone enters that I will change it to the right IMT station for the format. So basically any location you want to name will work the same for the contest.

John mac

16.0 __ 28.2 __ 4.8 __ 95 __ 110 __ 20.4 __ SHA

pauldry

15.9 __ 29.1 __ 4.9 __ 90 __ 120 __ 18.8 __ SHA

Bsal

15.5 __ 26.9 __ 5.1 __ 99 __ 105 __ 19.0 __ OAK

M.T. Cranium

Okay good people, the entry form is now available.

If you enter(ed) in this thread, take no further action. I will enter your forecasts over in the form myself. You retain the right to update your forecasts up to Wed 2 July at 0300h without penalty. You can do that in the entry form or here, and I will review your earlier posts to find any edits you might make.

I have edited the original post so that people who start reading the thread today will just have the usual information.

Thanks. -- MTC

DOCARCH

Done

rameire

done.

Rikand

done

dacogawa

Done

dasa29

Done

Harps

Done

Tae laidir

Done

Jpmarn

Done, sorry I am late.

Tae laidir

Latest forecast from Met.ie:

SATURDAY: Some nice sunshine with a lot of dry weather across the eastern half of the country. However there will also be some heavy showers about, particularly affecting the western half of the country, merging to longer spells of rain here, with the threat of thunder (possibly even spot flooding). Highest temperatures 15 to 19 degrees Celsius, mildest across the Greater Dublin Region and coolest closer to the Atlantic where showers will be ongoing.

Coincidence

:D

Fr_Dougal

Done

omicron

Done, albeit very late, was on holidays!

M.T. Cranium

Table of entries -- July 2014 forecast contest

FORECASTER ____________ IMT __ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN ___ Max 5, loc
___________________________________________________________________

Rameire _______________ 17.6 __ 28.8 __ 5.5 __ 088 __ 120 ___ 17.1 _ OAK
Jpmarn _____ (-5) _______16.8 __ 30.5 __ 5.6 __ 071 __ 132 ___ 18.9 _ SHA
M.T. Cranium ___________ 16.2 __ 30.2 __ 4.5 __ 080 __ 120 ___ 18.6 _ SHA
200 motels __ (-10) ______16.2 __ 30.1 __ 6.2 __ 071 __ 139 ___ 18.2 _ MUL
lostinashford __ (-20) ____ 16.2 __ 27.3 __ 4.3 __ 087 __ 109 ___ 22.1 _ CAS
John Mac _______________16.0 __ 28.2 __ 4.8 __ 095 __ 110 ___ 20.4 _ SHA
The Zohan ___ (-10) _____ 16.0 __ 29.0 __ 5.0 __ 094 __ 135 ___ 21.0 _ OAK
mickger844posts _ (-10) __ 16.0 __ 27.5 __ 5.1 __ 085 __ 112 ___ 22.1 _ OAK
Omicron _____ (-10) _____ 16.0 __ 26.0 __ 5.0 __ 110 __ 110 ___ 18.5 _ OAK
JD ____________________ 16.0 __ 29.2 __ 4.4 __ 083 __ 109 ___ 20.1 _ CAS
Pauldry ________________ 15.9 __ 29.1 __ 4.9 __ 090 __ 120 ___ 18.8 _ SHA
Rikand _________________15.9 __ 28.0 __ 4.6 __ 080 __ 120 ___ 19.5 _ MUL
Joe Public ______________ 15.9 __ 29.9 __ 4.9 __ 088 __ 129 ___ 18.9 _ OAK

Con Sensus ____________ 15.9 __ 28.3 __ 4.6 __ 090 __ 115 ___ 19.0 _ OAK

Danno _________________15.8 __ 25.8 __ 4.4 __ 080 __ 135 ___ 18.7 _ OAK
Okla _______ (-5) _______ 15.8 __ 28.4 __ 6.3 __ 080 __ 110 ___ 18.6 _ OAK
Kindredspirit ____________15.7 __ 27.6 __ 3.0 __ 090 __ 115 ___ 16.3 _ OAK
Harps _________________ 15.7 __ 27.9 __ 4.1 __ 110 __ 120 ___ 16.9 _ OAK
Dasa29 ________________ 15.5 __ 28.0 __ 2.0 __ 075 __ 125 ___ 23.0 _ MUL
Bsal ___________________15.5 __ 26.9 __ 5.1 __ 099 __ 105 ___ 19.0 _ OAK
DOCARCH ______________ 15.4 __ 28.3 __ 3.4 __ 090 __ 110 ___ 20.2 _ CAS
Drdidlittle ______________ 15.4 __ 25.7 __ 5.2 __ 090 __ 090 ___ 23.0 _ CLA
Dacogawa ______________15.2 __ 28.8 __ 4.6 __ 116 __ 096 ___ 21.1 _ OAK
Tae laidir ______________ 15.2 __ 26.5 __ 3.3 __ 110 __ 100 ___ 17.0 _ OAK
Waterways _____________ 15.2 __ 26.3 __ 2.0 __ 110 __ 096 ___ 23.2 _ CAS


________________________________________________

I have relaxed the late penalties by a factor of 50% as this month was quite late getting launched. Late penalties of 5 will also reduce bonus scores by 2 while late penalties of 10 will reduce them by 4 (after all are calculated).

If anyone else enters before 0300h 4th, they will have the 10 point penalty then it will go to 25 for the rest of 4th, bonus would be reduced by 5. No entries accepted after 0300h 5th.

Ripley's believe it or not, when I entered my forecast I was thinking of the maps for the 6th for some unknown reason, so it would take compensating errors to get much out of that. What's your excuse going to be?

BONUS -- 12 selected OAK, 4 like SHA, 4 now for CAS, 3 took MUL and 1 for CLA.

Scoring will be something like this, five points for correct region, four if the verifying station is almost mid-way between correct and your pick, three if you chose the second best but it wasn't that close, two if you have the third best and one if you avoided the worst choice (I may need to get up close and personal with the map of locations). As to the five points for the temperature, that will go by five groups of four, closest four get five points, next four get four etc, least accurate one or more gets zero. If anyone scores five on both, two extra bonus points awarded, if anyone has a 5-4 or 4-5 score then one extra. Then late reductions would apply.

mickger844posts

very late but done

lostinashford

Done. Sorry, very late, had a personal crisis which was solved today. At least I got it in before bonus question date.

M.T. Cranium

Well, I'm sure we all join in wishing you well and I've cut you a break with the penalty at 20 points.

Folks, there was some sort of screw-up about the June monthly max. I was sure it had hit 27 deg when I posted some provisionals, then when I checked the summary I can swear that it said 26.0 which I then used, but it was nagging away in my empty cranium and I checked back, now it says 27.1 C at Newport which is what I had originally thought. So I will have to rescore June and the annual race. It could make a difference of about 11 points to some scores (some will stay about the same and some will change less). Sorry about the confusion. I guess unless somebody else saw what I saw, we'll never know if the data changed in the file or it was some error on my part looking at the screen. I don't recall it being under any abnormal duress and I was certainly sober as a judge (well, anyway).

Going in there now to fix up that mess. Maybe you'll be pleasantly surprised.

Done that now, at least Con Sensus took a hit and nobody's complaining about that.

Meanwhile, MIN of 3.9 C on 1st at Mountdillon. Bonus to be determined within hours, nice to have an actual map-relevant question for a change.

John mac

Looks like Oak Park With 18.7
Danno spot on .

M.T. Cranium

^ True, but they haven't posted the other stations that show up in daily data yet, with Dublin at 18.3 I am wondering about Phoenix Park as I saw them reporting 19 on the hourly reports. Could be a tie possibly.

M.T. Cranium

In a holding pattern for the bonus as the data have not yet been updated on the met.ie website.

pauldry

we might not find out for a while as met ie has technical difficulties with past weather 7/7/14

M.T. Cranium

The three days before Saturday, PP was 0.5 to 0.8 deg warmer than Dublin, if this proves to be the case for Saturday then it will come in warmest. However, it won't make a lot of difference to the scores as the Oak Park forecasts were generally closer to the mark numerically and will have the benefit of the second closest IMT so we're only waiting around to see about 2-3 points for most. Betting that daily data will return later today, have seen this a few times before but it usually doesn't last more than a few days.

Tae laidir

Ridge of High Pressure over IT Dept. in Glasnevin!

M.T. Cranium

We finally have some data and the bonus was 19.2 C at Phoenix Park. The four closest to that (also Con Sensus) were Bsal (19.0), Jpmarn and Joe Public (18.9) and Rikand (19.5). None of those selected Casement and those who scored 4/5 for temperature did not select Casement either, so no super-bonus points awarded.

Will give the Oak Park and Mullingar guesses 3/5 and Shannon and Claremorris 1/5 all things considered. This leaves the question of estimating the other values to date. They are still posting data so I have nothing very reliable there, however, from what I recall and comparing with the CET values, would estimate that IMT is around 15.8, rainfall around 75% and sunshine possibly a bit above normal.

M.T. Cranium

For the first two weeks, I have managed to track down these stats:

IMT 14.9 C

MAX 24.4 C

MIN 3.9 C

PRC 50% of normal

SUN 89% of normal

The rainfall is bound to increase, temperatures also at a less impressive rate perhaps, sunshine maybe holding in that range.

M.T. Cranium

Update after three weeks ...

IMT now 15.7 C and climbing at about 0.2 per day with these very warm nights.

PRC now 67% after an exactly normal third week (although Ballyhaise made up for a lot of rather dry reports).

SUN barely improved to 90% thanks to the 91% of week three.

rameire

27.7 today in oak Park carlow.

Rikand

rameire wrote: »

27.7 today in oak Park carlow.

That'll do nicely!

M.T. Cranium

The IMT has peaked at 16.4 C through Saturday, just barely (16.36 rounded) and seems likely to fall back a bit now to near 16.2. That would be about halfway between normal and July 2013. In Britain, the CET currently stands at 18.1 and their 2013 value was 18.3, however, they often adjust down when all the data are examined whereas we just go with the daily readings, no adjustments later. So I think in Britain the values will end up fairly similar, shifted up as per the normal values (1981-2010 normal for July CET is 16.7, for IMT it's 15.2). The differences in February are just about opposite to those.

I've sent in the details on the August contest to our forms guy, just so you can start thinking about the bonus question, it will ask

How many sunny days (8.0 hours or more) will be recorded in August at Dublin A?

and what date will record the maximum daily amount?

M.T. Cranium

I forgot to check week four, but looking at the data to 29th, would say

IMT still at 16.4.

PRC down to about 55% of normal

SUN is probably a little over 100% now after quite a sunny eight days.

we'll find out soon enough ...

M.T. Cranium

The stats are in early ... and they are:

IMT of 16.4 C
MAX of 27.6 C
MIN of 3.9 C
PRC was 69%
SUN was 103%

Scoring for July 2014

FORECASTER __________ IMT__MAX__MIN__PRC__SUN___Max 5, loc ____ TOTAL
___________________________________________________________________

Rikand _________________20 __ 16 __ 13 __ 11 __ 07 ___ 5 _ 3 ______ 75

Con Sensus _____________20 __ 13 __ 13 __ 08 __ 08 ___ 5 _ 3 ______ 70

Kindredspirit ____________18 __ 20 __ 11 __ 08 __ 08 ___ 1 _ 3 ______ 69
DOCARCH ______________15 __ 13 __ 15 __ 08 __ 09 ___ 3 _ 5 ______ 68
jd_____________________21 __ 04 __ 15 __ 10 __ 09 ___ 3 _ 5 ______ 67
Harps _________________ 18 __ 17 __ 18 __ 01 __ 07 ___ 1 _ 3 ______ 65
John Mac _______________21 __ 14 __ 11 __ 06 __ 09 ___ 2 _ 1 ______ 64
M.T. Cranium ___________ 25 __ 00 __ 14 __ 11 __ 07 ___ 4 _ 1 ______ 62
lostinashford __ (-20) ____ 25 __ 17 __ 16 __ 09 __ 09 ___ 1 _ 5 __ 82-20=62
mickger844posts _ (-10) __ 21 __ 19 __ 08 __ 10 __ 08 ___ 1 _ 3 __ 70-10=60
Bsal ___________________16 __ 13 __ 08 __ 05 __ 10 ___ 5 _ 3 ______ 60
Danno _________________19 __ 02 __ 15 __ 11 __ 04 ___ 4 _ 3 ______ 58
Dasa29 ________________16 __ 16 __ 01 __ 13 __ 06 ___ 1 _ 3 ______ 56
Pauldry ________________20 __ 05 __ 10 __ 08 __ 07 ___ 4 _ 1 ______ 55
Okla _______ (-5) _______19 __ 12 __ 00 __ 11 __ 09 ___ 4 _ 3 __ 58-5=53
Joe Public ______________20 __ 00 __ 10 __ 09 __ 05 ___ 5 _ 3 ______ 52
Tae laidir_______________13 __ 09 __ 14 __ 01 __ 09 ___ 2 _ 3 ______ 51
Dacogawa______________13 __ 08 __ 13 __ 00 __ 09 ___ 2 _ 3 ______ 48
Rameire _______________13 __ 08 __ 04 __ 09 __ 07 ___ 2 _ 3 ______ 46
Jpmarn_____ (-5) _______21 __ 00 __ 03 __ 14 __ 04 ___ 5 _ 1 __ 48-5=43
The Zohan ___ (-10) _____21 __ 06 __ 09 __ 07 __ 04 ___ 2 _ 3 __ 52-10=42
Omicron _____ (-10) _____21 __ 04 __ 09 __ 01 __ 09 ___ 3 _ 3 __ 50-10=40
Drdidlittle ______________15 __ 01 __ 07 __ 08 __ 07 ___ 1 _ 1 ______ 40
200 motels__ (-10) ______25 __ 00 __ 00 __ 14 __ 03 ___ 3 _ 3 __ 48-10=38
Waterways _____________13 __ 07 __ 01 __ 01 __ 09 ___ 1 _ 5 ______ 37

Congrats to rikand, kindredspirit, DOCARCH, jd and harps for leading the way, scores in general fairly even for most of the field, check back in a while, the annual scoring update should be posted soon.

(note: later posted data on met.ie confirmed 16.4 C as IMT)

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual scoring table

Here's our first look at the main contest format where you get to drop your two lowest scores (assuming you have a full set of scores). The scores and ranks for that are now added on the right side of the table. The order will be changed later in the year to reflect this aspect of the contest. For now, we're sticking with the total score to create the table.

Rank _ Forecaster ____ J ___ F ___ M __ A ___ M __ J ___ J ___ TOTAL ___ Best 5/7 (rank)

01 _ Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 _ 70 __ 504 ____ 382 (1)

01 _ rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 _ 75 __ 490 ____ 374 (1)
02 _ harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 _ 65 __ 468 ____ 348 (2)
03 _ Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 _ 60 __ 437 ____ 343 (3)
04 _ kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 69 __ 434 ____ 333 (5)
05 _ Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 _ 51 __ 421 ____ 337 (4)

06 _ omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 _ 40 __ 409 ____ 328 (6)
07 _ pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 _ 55 __ 408 ____ 318 (8)
08 _ John mac _______ 67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 _ 64 __ 405 ____ 305 (13)
09 _ jpmarn _________ 61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 _ 43 __ 402 ____ 314 (10)
10 _ DOCARCH _______54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 _ 68 __ 399 ____ 314 (10)

11 _ mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 _ 60 __ 397 ____ 303 (14)
12 _ waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 __ 394 ____ 319 (7)
13 _ dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 _ 56 __ 389 ____ 293 (17)
14 _ Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 __ 375 ____ 277 (22)
15 _ rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 _ 46 __ 369 ____ 282 (19)

16 _ 200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 _ 38 __ 358 ____ 281 (20)
16 _ M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 _ 62 __ 358 ____ 301 (16)
18 _ dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 _ 48 __ 355 ____ 280 (21)
19 _ traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 39 _ --- __ 351 ____ 312 (12)
20 _ lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 _ 62 __ 347 ____ 302 (15)

21 _ okla ___________59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 __ 335 ____ 286 (18)
22 _ Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 _ 52 __ 316 ____ 264 (23)
23 _ jd _____________60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- _ 67 __ 315 ____ 315 (9)
24 _ talkabout _______59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- _ --- __ 255
25 _ nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 236

26 _ delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 _ --- __ 180 ____ 164 (24)
27 _ homolumo ______58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- __ 163
28 _ Robxxx7 _______ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ -- _ --- __ 136
29 _ seafields _______ 40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ ---_ --- __ 123
30 _ melanoma ______39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- __ 104

31 _ yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ --_ --- ___94
32 _ downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- ___64
33 _ The Zohan _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 37 _ 42 __102
34 _ dexter647 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___55
35 _ octo __________47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 47

36 _ rebelcork _____ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 46
37 _ sunflower3_____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ -- _ --- ___ 40
37 _ drdidlittle _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 ___ 40
39 _ billcarson _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 _ --- ___ 39
40 _ aimsir ________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- ___ 28