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Wind farms - ugly truths
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Given the vast array of price plans, introductionary offers, bundles that include gas supply too etc. across various companies targeting different consumer groups - its not a very usefull source for the purpose of gauging the costs of our energy policies at a retail level overall.
Actually, they're just general tariffs - no introductory offers or gas/electricity combinations included (at least as I had them filtered - you can go back a page and double check if you like). The important ones anyway are the highest non-meter-credit and the lowest tariff rate that anyone can apply for. The important bit is that in a perfectly competitive market with interchangeable goods, everyone is supposed to flock to the lowest cost provider (which triggers other providers to drop their prices). This is very clearly not happening in our electricity market.This is why I prefer simple stats like the table below which cuts out all the BS on the subject
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_pricing#/media/File:Electricity-prices-europe.jpg
Going on your logic that Irish consumers are a bit dense, consumers in Denmark and Germany must be right fools!!
Unfortunately that simplifies things to the point that it removes useful information for understanding what is going on. You need to see the price spread to get a feel on what is actually causing retail electricity prices to remain so much higher than wholesale prices.
I wouldn't call Irish consumers dense - they're just operating like real people on other criteria than pure economics. Loyalty and trust is a big part of why ESB remains the top supplier for most people.
Denmark's electricity prices are a more complicated thing - half their price is actually assorted energy taxes and a large portion of their installed renewable base is actually community owned coops (which means due to revenue return/support payments their effective energy price is lower than the headline figure).
Germany I'd need to look at their market but I'd almost put money on it that it's down to them chopping and changing their investment signals over the last few years.Well thats me convinced
I don't need or expect you to be. I just hope you'll entertain the thought experiment to get a feeling for why that DSM idea might not be as crazy as it first sounded to you.You keep changing the goal posts - my post referred to daily wholesale rates before the likes of PSO,TM costs are included
Cool...in that case it is more than 60% of the floor on the final retail price.
(I was being conservative and backing my facts up to published information)So your lecture on DSM was entirely irrelevant to the point I was making. I'm well aware of nightsaver rates etc. They have around for years and have little baring on this discussion as I pointed out earlier, yet you insist on muddying the waters by trotting out a vague version of it in response to my post
Then give me in one line what you are trying to drive at - at the moment it reads to me like you dislike the idea of Eirgrid considering paying for DSM because you think it's unproven on a consumer base (hence my reference to nightsaver) and/or it'll increase prices and/or drive off industry (in which case see my examples).Again your muddying the waters - I'm well aware that Eirgrid are now a separate entity. It is their current form and objectives that I have a serious problem with, given their current and planned lavish spending on grandiose wind related grid projects - the cost of which gets entirely dumped on the Irish energy consumer.
They're doing the same thing they've always done. They're trying to keep the power system running at minimum cost given the impact of political policy that is not in their remit to change. Hell, the big drum their beating at the moment has nothing to do with wind but with avoiding blacking out the North.0 -
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So is the Eurostat data and includes all the little nasties that Eirgrid,CER etc have dumped on the Irish consumer which they can't avoid paying.
The Eurostat data doesn't give the spread of tariffs which is the important part if you want to understand why average retail prices aren't declining despite reduction in wholesale prices.Unfortunately you appear to want to blame everything but the issues around the indulgence of wind power for the high prices on such grids.
Unfortunately you're focused on wind being responsible for everything regardless of actual root causes. If you tried to understand them, you'd be able to frame your arguments more convincingly.We already discussed how Denmarks high energy taxes are directly related to preferential tax treatment of wind power operators in additions to all the other
supports they receive directly and indirectly.I've no idea what is the basis for your speculation on the German case
Yep, Denmark is pretty clear cut - my point on it is that their high headline energy price is partly composed of money going back to the communities paying it. It's not directly comparable to every other tariff across the EU as a result.
Germany is simple. Up until 2011 they'd been talking about a slow phase out of Nuclear. Then Fukushima happened and they speeded it up. On top of that, they're trying to transition from Coal/oil baseload to gas. On top of that, they're trying to increase the level of renewables on their grid. In other words, they've high energy prices due to chopping and changing what they're doing and driving up the amount of invested/stranded capital as a result.At the end of the day when you boil things down there is a clear relationship across Europe between energy prices and installed wind/solar capacity . Similar patterns are also apparent in Canada and US as I showed earlier in the thread with relevant links. I'm sure you'd prefer it such things were ignored for the sake of your own pro-wind developer arguments but the evidence is pretty clear
It amuses me a little that you see anyone who doesn't jump on board with "Windmills are the cause of all evil and eat babies" as pro-wind development. It's an amazingly myopic view of a very complicated set of problems and positions.The concept as described by you is a glorified night saver scheme. It adds nothing new or different to the arguement
You realize you're the one who brought it up by claiming Eirgrid were doing something crazy by talking about it...right?To refresh your memory. I asked "how would this work in practice during prolonged periods of low wind conditions of the type we saw earlier this winter".
in response you said "DSM isn't used in those conditions"
Too right it isn't due to the obvious cost and practicality issues!!
If you frame a strawman question, you get the answer you want. Maybe ask how it's beneficial to the system instead? You might learn something.You seem to read into things what you want to read into them for your own purposes. Eirgrids proposal involved a lot more then the simple concept of DSM that you seem to think it was. It was suggesting forcing people to switch off during low renewable input periods by offering incentives to be paid for by foisting extra charges across the system. Clearly unworkable which is why the likes of the UK and Germany are now scrambling to back track on such ideas by looking to install more conventional dispatcheable plant
Look up what net load is. Then apply what we were talking about earlier. You use DSM to flatten out the shape of the load so you can use your generation portfolio more effectively.
Saying it's bad because it doesn't replace generation is broadly the same sense as saying that you don't need feet cos you have a car or that a biscuit isn't very good at being a cup of tea. They're complementary things.Again your very selective in your observations. It was Eirgrid that were gung-ho on the the likes of the wind energy inspired grid west project before a number of wind farms in the target areas where rejected/curtailed on planning grounds. And that North/South interconnector has plenty to do with wind energy too as discussed on Prime Time just this week
You mean the transmission system operator wanted to build lines to allow it to perform its legal requirement to connect those generators? How appalling. They must really love wind a lot to be doing their legal duty
As for "North South interconnector is for wind" - read what the NI regulator had to say. Take a look at the data on what happens to NI's capacity without it (pages 45/46). The North-South interconnector isn't about wind - it's about NI being almost entirely dependent on the Moyle Interconnector and one or two obsolete generators that are being paid service contracts to buy time to finish the North-South interconnector.0 -
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The Eurostat data doesn't give the spread of tariffs which is the important part
if you want to understand why average retail prices aren't declining despite
reduction in wholesale prices.
It gives the average Tariff which is the fairest measure. It mightn't suit your arguments but it is the fairest measure. If you tried to understand them, you'd be able to frame
your arguments more convincingly.
That sounds like your ego getting the better of you. I understand enough to know spin and PR waffle when I see itYep, Denmark is pretty clear cut - my point on it is that their high headline
energy price is partly composed of money going back to the communities paying
it. It's not directly comparable to every other tariff across the EU as a
result.
Germany is simple. Up until 2011 they'd been talking about a
slow phase out of Nuclear. Then Fukushima happened and they speeded it up. On
top of that, they're trying to transition from Coal/oil baseload to gas. On top
of that, they're trying to increase the level of renewables on their grid. In
other words, they've high energy prices due to chopping and changing what
they're doing and driving up the amount of invested/stranded capital as a
result.
And yet those pushing wind here and in government continue to laud both countries approach to this issue and are determined to follow a similar path!!It amuses me a little that you see anyone who doesn't jump on board with
"Windmills are the cause of all evil and eat babies" as pro-wind development.
It's an amazingly myopic view of a very complicated set of problems and
positions.
I've no problem with folks who want to power their own set-up with wind as they personally take on all the risks and costs without imposing such things on third parties. My point is that the technology is wholly unsuitable for national grid scale deployment for a whole range of reasons as already outlined in this threadYou realize you're the one who brought it up by claiming Eirgrid were doing
something crazy by talking about it...right?
Eirgrid where talking about something on a vastly different scale to DSMIf you frame a strawman question, you get the answer you want. Maybe ask how
it's beneficial to the system instead? You might learn something
Again your EGO appears to be clouding your judgement on this. If you don't know the answer to the question I poised - just say so.Look up what net load is. Then apply what we were talking about earlier. You use
DSM to flatten out the shape of the load so you can use your generation
portfolio more effectively.
You already said DSM can't address the issues I raised and that are already impacting on the UK and other grids. Yet you persist with dragging it into the argument at every opportunity
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[/QUOTE]You mean the transmission system operator wanted to build lines to allow it to perform its legal requirement to connect those generators? How appalling. They must really love wind a lot to be doing their legal duty
As for "North South interconnector is for wind" - read what the NI regulator had to say. Take a look at the data on what happens to NI's capacity without it (pages 45/46). The North-South interconnector isn't about wind - it's about NI being almost entirely dependent on the Moyle Interconnector and one or two obsolete generators that are being paid service contracts to buy time to finish the North-South interconnector.
Oh but they do - it was the whole rational for the grid west project about which I got a load of documentation from Eirgrid mail shots to my address in North Mayo which stated that exact reality. Can you expand on your point about Eirgrids legal obligations as it relates to wind energy??. It appears to suggest that they have to provide network infrastructure to wind developers anywhere and everywhere. If Eirgrid didn't come up with this approach I'd like to know the clowns who did??
My point about the North-South interconnector was valid as wind developers themselves stated on the PT programme that it would facilitate wind farms in "virgin territory".0 -
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Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭
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The UK will probably be referred to as a cautionary tale in future, with their 180 on renewablesGermany's a bit more complicated. If anything they seem like a cautionary tale on changing horses midstream. That said, they can afford it. I'd need to do some more reading around about their power system policies before I'd be comfortable dissecting it fully though.
Any chance they'll get taken to the Eu again over the govt guarantee on the Chinese money to pay for the French Nuclear ?
Also you have to take into account the politics. German policy has something like a 96% approval rating , except of course for the cost. But try to find any group of consumers who wouldn't prefer cheaper prices.
Until energy storage gets really cheap a grid connection is the cheapest way for backup and redundancy, but once you have a grid connection it's hard to compete with the wholesale price. Local generation could compete on the retail price. It's a balancing act.As off-grid tech, it has some complications that would make me sceptical of its benefit versus solar. I would be in favour of local coop style models (where a village has most of its electricity needs met by self-owned local renewable generation but has the main grid for backup).
Investing in insulation might be the first step. Increasing insulation for space and water would mean heating wouldn't need to be as time critical and peak demand could be shifted.
Also for rural communities bio-gas but piping ain't cheap and the stuff is a lot more toxic than natural gas, though nowhere near as bad as the old coal gas.0 -
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Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Join Date:Posts: 89078
Peak demand was 5GW and that was in 2008 , not 2010.However even this plan is subject to the caveat that in a Winter 2010 style crisis, home heating systems are likely to break down en-masse and people will rely on plug electric heaters to stay alive. There had better be a stable grid with plentiful cheap power available for such a crisis. That includes a super-peak demand, no wind and no sun - for which you've made no provision as far as I can see.
And a repeat of the 5GW demand would be covered by the 7GW dispatchable on the grid.
And because you are talking an absolute peak it doesn't need to be cheap. It's pretty common to see peak prices on www.sem-o.com way above the base.
So if we have very cold weather, and no wind , and there are multiple units off line and the neighbours won't sell electricity over the interconector we still have capacity. And even if we didn't there is still the option of demand shedding during peak hours.0 -
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