May 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

And so the three closest forecasts (waterways 6.2, Tae laidir 6.0, Bsal 7.0) will get the ten points, after that, I will go down in groups of three so that Pauldry, traecy1 and delw have nine points, then lostinashford, kindredspirit and rameire have eight. At seven points will be Jpmarn, Robxx7, MTC and 200motels as I am applying a slightly elastic high-side error for the one forecast that went significantly over. From there on, I will go with pairs at 6 (okla, dasa29), 5 (Yoghurt87, danno also Con Sensus), 4 (dacogawa, rikand) and 3 for Johnmac. The zero forecasts will get 2 points.

Fr_Dougal

I'm not going to lie, I had no idea what I was doing when I filled in mine.

M.T. Cranium

It's largely guesswork with a bit of inspired pattern recognition -- the hard part is to guess what the second half of a month will be like, I think most of the more experienced people in the contest would tend to issue similar forecasts for the first half based on guidance but as you can see from this bonus question, guidance for ten days or more is fairly vague on details. This is very much of an evolving field where large numbers of people have made slight advances, and claims of larger advances seem to fail the test of objective numerical validation, unless your name is Con Sensus, then you've got something.

Tae laidir

Moorepark, Phoenix Park & Shannon Airport 19deg at 15:00.

M.T. Cranium

Update after days 8 to 14 ...

IMT is now 11.0 C

PRC is 167% after a wet week (other than Cork) with an average of 198%

SUN now very much estimated due to sparse data (in Ag Report) around 60% after a somewhat better week with perhaps 75-80 per cent.

MAX a work in progress, MIN has to be quite high so far, can recall some 5s.

Rikand

thought for sure there would be have been a min reached a few nights ago ( monday night ? ) I was putting the bin out and there seemed quite a chill in the air!

M.T. Cranium

Had a look back and found 4.0 at Knock to be the lowest, 4.4 at Mullingar.

Tae laidir

19.4deg yesterday in Mullingar. A bit disappointing?
Maybe bettered today?

M.T. Cranium

19.9 at Phoenix Park on Friday.

pauldry

Not here 14,6c

New weather station installed!!

DOCARCH

20.4 at Phoenix Park on Saturday.

Rikand

I think I'll let May be one of the months I don't count at the end

pauldry

Heres a strange one.

Coldest place so far Belmullet 3.1c

Joe Public

Rikand wrote: »

I think I'll let May be one of the months I don't count at the end

Don't make a habit of it!

M.T. Cranium

Update for the end of third week of May ...

IMT has reached 11.5 C after a week that averaged 12.6 C.

PRC has held almost steady at 163% after another rather wet week for most away from parts of the south coast (week at 155%).

SUN has improved somewhat to near 75% after a full report for last week that saw an average of 101%.

Extremes as far as we know are 20.4 and 3.1 C.

Con might not do so well this month, could be some mercy rule applications forthcoming especially on rainfall.

Joe Public

It's likely the last day of the month will be the warmest!

M.T. Cranium

That would be good from my point of view, can we also have the 29th or 30th be the coldest?

M.T. Cranium

I am a bit late getting a June contest started, just contacted the forms man now, hopefully we can launch it on Wednesday but to give you a heads up, bonus will ask for the location and amount of the heaviest 24-hour calendar-day rainfall at the various reporting stations (including all that appear in "daily data" in past weather on the website). And a bonus of two extra points for any who nail the date, one point if nobody does for whoever is closest.

Also I did not yet announce a summer forecast contest, will do that and as several of you like to enter those, will give you more time to enter (probably end of 3rd).

M.T. Cranium

Meanwhile, 1.7 C at Dublin (A) on Tuesday for a new minimum. Likely to have a new MAX from today with some hourly obs as high as 21 so far. Whatever is reported, as Joe says above, could be eclipsed on Saturday.

pauldry

22.3c in Shannon

Beat that Saturday!

Rikand

pauldry wrote: »

22.3c in Shannon

Beat that Saturday!

only beat it by 0.2 please

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT holding at 11.5 C

MAX 22.3 and MIN 1.7

PRC has fallen a bit to 150% after a more normal sort of week (109% on average, Malin Head quite dry)

SUN remains woeful at 73% and unlikely to make much of a move now, even if Saturday brings a full helping.

M.T. Cranium

IMT confirmed at 11.6(4)

PRC looks to be about 140%, only 200motels was above that.

I guess we will have to wait until Tuesday for final scoring as the MS won't be published until then.

M.T. Cranium

Final values now confirmed from MS ...

IMT 11.6
MAX 22.3
MIN 1.7
PRC 138%
SUN 77%
bonus was 6.4 mm.

Just some minor adjustments to the scoring table then...

Final Scoring for May 2014


FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN __ PRC _ SUN __ Bonus ___ TOTALS

Tae laidir ______________24 __ 18 __ 04 __ 14* __ 06 ____ 10 _______ 76
Jpmarn _______________ 22 __ 19 __ 14 __ 11* __ 01 ____ 07 _______ 74
Harps _________________15 __ 17 __ 19 __ 03* __ 10 ____ 02 _______ 66

Con Sensus ____________ 25 __ 18 __ 09 __ 05* __ 04 ____ 05 _______ 66

pauldry _______________ 14 __ 17 __ 05 __ 10* __ 08 ____ 09 _______ 63
traecy1 ________________21 __ 08 __ 07 __ 11* __ 06 ____ 09 _______ 62
Bsal __________________ 23 __ 14 __ 00 __ 08* __ 06 ____ 10 _______ 61
okla _______ (-5) _______24 __ 13 __ 16 __ 03* __ 02 ____ 06 __ 64-5 = 59
talkabout ___ (-5) _______22 __ 14 __ 16 __ 03* __ 05 ____ 02 __ 62-5=57
dasa29 ________________24 __ 17 __ 00 __ 07* __ 03 ____ 06 _______ 57
mickger844posts ________24 __ 13 __ 06 __ 05* __ 04 ____ 02 _______ 54
kindredspirit ___________ 21 __ 18 __ 00 __ 03* __ 02 ____ 08 _______ 52
Danno ________________ 23 __ 06 __ 15 __ 02* __ 00 ____ 05 _______ 51
rikand ________________ 25 __ 18 __ 02 __ 02* __ 00 ____ 04 _______ 51
John mac ______________22 __ 00 __ 15 __ 07* __ 03 ____ 03 _______ 50
lostinashford ___________ 18 __ 01 __ 01 __ 09* __ 08 ____ 08 _______ 45
omicron _______________ 19 __ 07 __ 01 __ 05* __ 07 ____ 02 _______ 41
rameire _______________ 14 __ 02 __ 00 __ 11* __ 06 ____ 08 _______ 41
Yoghurt87 _____________ 24 __ 06 __ 00 __ 02* __ 04 ____ 05 _______ 41
sunflower3 _____________20 __ 01 __ 09 __ 05* __ 03 ____ 02 _______ 40
200motels __ (-20) ______23 __ 00 __ 08 __ 13* __ 08 ____ 07 __ 59-20 = 39
waterways __ (-15) _____ 23 __ 00 __ 00 __ 12* __ 08 ____ 10 __ 53-15 = 38
DOCARCH ___ (-5) ______ 22 __ 08 __ 00 __ 07* __ 04 ____ 02 __ 43-5=38
delw __________________07 __ 00 __ 07 __ 08* __ 03 ____ 09 _______ 34
Robxxx7 _______________00 __ 11 __ 06 __ 03* __ 06 ____ 07 _______ 33
dacogawa _____________ 19 __ 00 __ 06 __ 02* __ 01 ____ 04 _______ 32
M.T. Cranium ___________14 __ 00 __ 00 __ 02* __ 03 ____ 07 _______ 26
The Zohan _____________ 00 __ 00 __ 13 __ 00 ___ 08 ____ 02 _______ 23
Joe Public ____ (-5) _____ 12 __ 00 __ 00 __ 01* __ 00 ____ 02 _______ 15-5 = 10

Joe Public

That "-5" had a huge impact! :-)

M.T. Cranium

Updated Annual 2014 Scores (with spring seasonal points)

Rank _ Forecaster ____ J ___ F ___ M __ A ___ M ____ TOTAL ______ (Spring) ___ (pts) ___ (winter pts)_(total pts)

01 _ Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 __ 376 ____________ 241 _________ 10 ______ 1 _____ 11

01 _ rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 __ 346 ____________ 213 _________ 10 ______ 1 _____ 11
02 _ Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 __ 343 ____________ 194 __________ 3_____ 10 _____ 13
03 _ harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 __ 331 ____________ 211 __________ 7 ______ 0 ______ 7
04 _ omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 __ 330 ____________ 204 __________ 5 ______ 4 ______ 9
05 _ pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 __ 313 ____________ 182 __________ 1 ______ 7 ______ 8
06 _ jpmarn _________61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 __ 312 ____________ 206 __________ 6 ______ 6 _____ 12
06 _ traecy.1 ________ 63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 __ 312 ____________ 191 __________ 2 ______ 0 ______ 2
08 _ Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 __ 308 ____________ 177 __________ 1 ______ 3 ______ 0
09 _ kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 __ 305 ____________ 189 __________ 1 ______ 0 ______ 1
10 _ mickger844posts_ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 __ 296 ____________ 174
11 _ waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 __ 282 ____________ 148 __________ 0 _____ 2 ______ 2
12 _ John mac _______67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 __ 281 ____________ 161
13 _ DOCARCH ______ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 __ 277 ____________ 176
13 _ dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 __ 277 ____________ 157
15 _ 200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 __ 273 ____________ 152 ___________ 0 _____ 1 ______ 1
16 _ rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 __ 267 ____________ 141 ___________ 0 _____ 1 ______ 1
17 _ M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 __ 265 ____________ 140
17 _ Danno _________54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 __ 265 ____________ 153
19 _ dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 __ 264 ____________ 159
20 _ talkabout ______ 59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 __ 255 ____________ 196 ____________ 4 _____ 0 ______ 4
21 _ jd _____________60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ --- __ 248 ____________ 130
22 _ nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- __ 236 ____________112 ____________ 0 _____ 5 ______ 5
23 _ okla ___________59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 __ 228 ____________ 169
24 _ Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 __ 222 ____________ 104
25 _ lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 __ 220 ____________ 169
26 _ homolumo ______58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- __ 163 _____________ 46
27 _ delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 __ 163 _____________ 88
28 _ seafields _______ 40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- __ 123 _____________ 83
29 _ Robxxx7 _______ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 __ 136 ____________ 136
30 _ melanoma ______39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 104
31 _ yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 ___ 94 _____________ 94
32 _ downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- ___ 64 _____________ 64
33 _ dexter647 ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- ___ 55 _____________ 55
34 _ octo ___________47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 47
35 _ rebelcork ______ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- ___ 46 _____________ 46
36 _ sunflower3 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 ___ 40 _____________ 40
37 _ aimsir _________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- ___ 28 _____________ 28
38 _ The Zohan _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 ___ 23 _____________ 23
________________________________________________________________


The seasonal points are updated with the spring season finished, Rikand (and Con Sensus) gained the maximum of 10 points in that, and with winter added in, Bsal with 13 and Jpmarn with 12 lead the overall contest.

For the main annual contest, Rikand now has a narrow margin over Bsal with harps and omicron close behind. Con Sensus has pulled out to a formidable lead over all human competition.

Rikand

Woo!