May 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 11.1 C for the 30-yr period 1981 to 2010.

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus -- Predict the rainfall on Sunday 11th at Ballyhaise. If everyone says the same thing we may run a different bonus question to be announced later. In theory, this would be to give an outlook for conditions for the third stage of the Italian cycling event that is running a route from Armagh to Dublin on the 11th. Will decide on the 2nd if this bonus question is going to stand or if we need a substitute which would be for a day later into the month.

Deadlines for entry ... you have until the end of the day on Thursday 1st of May, to enter without penalty. The actual deadline is set at 0300h on Friday, the 2nd of May. After that, it's five point penalties for each half-day late, 0300 to 1500 and 1500 to 0300h used to determine half days.

Enter at this location, or on the thread itself.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

omicron

Done.

Bsal

Done.

dasa29

Done

Harps

Done

Jpmarn

Done

mickger844posts

done

rameire

done.

traecy1

Done.

delw

Done

Tae laidir

Done

lostinashford

done

Rikand

done

dacogawa

Done

Danno

Done

DOCARCH

Done.

okla

Done.

talkabout

Done

Joe Public

Done

John mac

done.

M.T. Cranium

John mac, you had me worried there for a second, then I noticed your entry was a lot earlier than your message.

Thanks for your entries (to date) ... for your interest, I get this template from the entry form which pretty much guarantees that if I don't type over your numbers while setting up the table of entries, it has to be accurate. Have to watch the bonus numbers as they don't like to stay in a column. And some of you have numbers in your username. But I like a challenge to stay awake while doing these tables. Check my work in the table (when it appears) against your entry to verify. I also made a note to self, DOCARCH down to Joe Public are all 5 pt penalties. At the moment, your entry would be 10 pts down and that will change to 15 at 0300h.

12.1 20.4 2.8 90 111 sunflower3 0
11 21 -0.2 90 90 omicron 0
11.8 22.9 -1.5 101 97 Bsal 7
11.5 23.7 -0.5 84 106 Yoghurt87 0.9
14.5 27 1 60 87 TheZohan 0
11.3 26.4 1.2 98 110 john mac 0.1
14.5 21.4 3.1 85 98 Robxxx7 2.1
11.5 22 -0.5 95 110 dasa29 1
12 22.5 -0.5 85 115 Kindred Spirit 4
10.5 22 0.2 109 89 pauldry 5.4
10.6 22.6 1.6 85 75 Harps 0
11.9 22.2 1.1 110 120 Jpmarn 3.2
11.5 23 3.1 90 105 mickger844posts 0
10.5 20.5 -0.5 110 95 rameire 3.6
11.2 23.5 3 110 95 traecy1 7.5
9.8 19 3 97 110 delw 5
11.5 22.5 3.3 123 95 Tae laidir 6
11.6 22.5 0.1 80 130 Rikand 0.2
12.3 20.4 -0.2 106 89 lostinashford 3.6
12.2 26 0.3 82 122 Dacogawa 0.5
12.7 25.5 -0.4 80 110 M.T. Cranium 2
11.4 23.7 1.2 80 130 Danno 0.7
11.3 21.1 -1.3 95 105 DOCARCH 0
11.7 21.6 2.1 85 116 Okla 1.5
11.3 22.9 1.3 85 100 Talkabout 0
12.9 24.9 -1.9 79 129 Joe Public 0

(added after posting) -- Also FYI, my screen version has the columns pretty much intact, unlike that version you see above.

M.T. Cranium

Table of entries May 2014 forecast contest


FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN __ PRC _ SUN __ Rain 11th (Ballyhaise)

The Zohan ______________ 14.5 _ 27.0 __+1.0 _ 060 _ 087 ____ 0.0
Robxxx7 ________________14.5 _ 21.4 __+3.1 _ 085 _ 098 ____ 2.1
Joe Public ____ (-5) ______ 12.9 _ 24.9 _ --1.9 _ 079 _ 129 ____ 0.0
M.T. Cranium ____________12.7 _ 25.5 _ --0.4 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 2.0
lostinashford ____________ 12.3 _ 20.4 _ --0.2 _ 106 _ 089 ____ 3.6
dacogawa _______________ 12.2 _ 26.0 __+0.3 _ 082 _ 122 ____ 0.5
sunflower3 ______________ 12.1 _ 20.4 __+2.8 _ 090 _ 111 ____ 0.0
kindredspirit _____________ 12.0 _ 22.5 _ --0.5 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 4.0
Jpmarn _________________ 11.9 _ 22.2 __+1.1 _ 110 _ 120 ____ 3.2
Bsal ____________________11.8 _ 22.9 _ --1.5 _ 101 _ 097 ____ 7.0
200motels __ (-20) _______ 11.8 _ 26.8 __+2.9 _ 157 _ 088 ___ 11.0
waterways __ (-15) _______ 11.8 _ 24.8 _ --1.0 _ 115 _ 085 ____ 6.2
okla _______ (-5) _________11.7 _ 21.6 __+2.1 _085 _ 116 ____ 1.5
rikand __________________ 11.6 _ 22.5 __+0.1 _ 080 _ 130 ____ 0.2

Con Sensus ______________11.6 _ 22.5 __ +0.6 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 0.7

Yoghurt87 _______________11.5 _ 23.7 _ --0.5 _ 084 _ 106 ____ 0.9
mickger844posts _________ 11.5 _ 23.0 __+3.1 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 0.0
Tae laidir _______________ 11.5 _ 22.5 __+3.3 _ 123 _ 095 ____ 6.0
dasa29 _________________ 11.5 _ 22.0 _ --0.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 1.0
Danno __________________11.4 _ 23.7 __+1.2 _ 080 _ 130 ____ 0.7
John mac _______________ 11.3 _ 26.4 __+1.2 _ 098 _ 110 ____ 0.1
talkabout ___ (-5) ________ 11.3 _ 22.9 __+1.3 _ 085 _ 100 ____ 0.0
DOCARCH ___ (-5) ________ 11.3 _ 21.1 _ --1.3 _ 095 _ 105 ____ 0.0
traecy1 _________________ 11.2 _ 23.5 __+3.0 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 7.5
omicron _________________11.0 _ 21.0 _ --0.2 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 0.0
Harps __________________ 10.6 _ 22.6 __+1.6 _ 085 _ 075 ____ 0.0
pauldry _________________ 10.5 _ 22.0 __+0.2 _ 109 _ 089 ____ 5.4
rameire _________________ 10.5 _ 20.5 _ --0.5 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 3.6
delw _____________________9.8 _ 19.0 __+3.0 _ 097 _ 110 ____ 5.0

_____________________________________________________

The consensus calls for a fairly average month with perhaps a slight bias towards warmth, sun and dry conditions although very slight on average, and the outlook for rain on the 11th seems to be divided between a dry camp of about one third of the entries and a wetter camp of another third with some in between expecting slight amounts. Let's hope that whoever is right, the rain doesn't interfere with the event or any other (10th-11th) weekend plans.

Will edit in any further entries and adjust consensus.

pauldry

Its got to the stage that I now adjust my score to consensus but now it looks a lot warmer than my 10.5c AVG. Still Ill stick.

Maybe itll snow or something!!!

waterways

Had to correct consensus.

John mac

entered via google at work , dont remember my login details for boards. Pc at home is automatic..

Tae laidir

waterways wrote: »

Had to correct consensus.

For copying all our work???

M.T. Cranium

Report on the first seven days ...

IMT is 11.2 C

PRC is 136%

SUN (est) around 35%

no temperature extremes likely to survive to end of month.

pauldry

Sunshine in sligo thus far is only 15percent Id say

Next week will get a bit more sun but bonus question looks very unlikely tohave zero rain so any downpour and consensus may actually get something wrong the expert.!

Where does he live anyways

M.T. Cranium

If we take a weighted average of our locations, then Con must live somewhere near the M6 buoy.

Maybe he clings to it.

M.T. Cranium

Ballyhaise has probably had at least 5 mm rain since midnight, I have seen most of the hourly reports overnight. So very few guesses will turn out too high, that's known.

Tae laidir

Ballyhaise 6.4mm yesterday.