where's all the milk going to go

whelan2

Reggie. wrote: »

We stock up well here just in case

we used to go to sainsburys in newry and stock up. Once i bought a load and had to change the formula the child was on a few days later

Reggie.

whelan2 wrote: »

we used to go to sainsburys in newry and stock up. Once i bought a load and had to change the formula the child was on a few days later

That's always the way.

freedominacup

charleysurf wrote: »

there is no doubt there'll be pockets in the country where expansion will take place. Waterford is always a big dairying county and have large tracks of good land but look across the country, can you see the same happening in every county. Kerry and aurivo are under quota this year not huge capacity for expand there. you'll probably get expansion along a line between cork and Dublin but little else where.

theres no chance the banks will be caught out again so soon again. they're a lot more conscience now and most loans require 30% cash upfront so that's keep the messers in check. also all this expansion wont happen overnight, it'll take years to happen.

We didn't even own where we're farming now when Ireland joined the eec. Ten years later we had 5000l/acre of output on the milking platform with 1970's tech and practices. The most cows that were ever in the fathers home place was 5-6 hand milked in a tie up byre snd these were gone for thr bones of ten years before he started milking here. You might be surprised how fast it happens. Youth, enthusiasm and no artificial production constraints are a potent mix. Every bob for everything here was borrowed at the start. There were no buildings, no roadways and thirty something fields on 90 acres and both entrances wee now use were impassable other than in a summer like 2013. In ten years there was the quota mentioned above, 15 unit parlour, extensive roadways and 4 fields. We haven't had a chance like it since I think people are going to get a land at how fast it happens in places.

Greenmachine

Maybe it is time to look at making bio-diesel from all that butter.

hurling_lad

TEAT SQUEEZER wrote: »

we`re int our 7-8 th season of fluctuation since the majority of market supports were removed from eu milk but have still had the quotas limiting production oppertunities so no scope to take advantage when prices are high and minimal protection when they`re low.........

i dont see what the alternatives are if a farmer has a land base to allow expansion and feels up to the job of milking more cows......... any tillage ive ever done has just kept the contractor paid and as for beef well you know the rest:rolleyes:

Bang-on re: tillage. From where I'm sitting I could throw one stone and it would hit the parlour and throw two more stones and they would land in stubble fields which, after much arguing, I've concluded are only there because of 1) quota and 2) the old man's fondness for ploughing. The profit per hectare wouldn't keep my seven year old in sweets for the year.

As for worries about expansion flooding the market, it says here that EU output will increase by 10bn litres between 2015 and 2020. This seems like a lot, but when you look at the below stats, it's less than a 1.2% annual increase on what the EU produces now.

tomwaterford

TEAT SQUEEZER wrote: »

authorities in china have great mass on school milk programs... glanbia are on the point of bringing out a uht milk with an 18 mth shelf life and an open -life of a week UNREFRIGERATED.... get it intya cynthia

almost reads like a glanbia press release:rolleyes:...not critizing you or anything....but maybe its 100% ok once powered I just don't know!!

what im getting at is it lactose free???
as I was always lead to believe that it was as much genetic as cultural why milk was mostly consumed in northern Europe

http://milk.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000661

charleysurf wrote: »

there is no doubt there'll be pockets in the country where expansion will take place. Waterford is always a big dairying county and have large tracks of good land but look across the country, can you see the same happening in every county. Kerry and aurivo are under quota this year not huge capacity for expand there. you'll probably get expansion along a line between cork and Dublin but little else where.

theres no chance the banks will be caught out again so soon again. they're a lot more conscience now and most loans require 30% cash upfront so that's keep the messers in check. also all this expansion wont happen overnight, it'll take years to happen.

jesus I hope so....if they don't there will be a lot of cross heads...as I don't think banks will give the lee way that they gave to developers as most farmers assets will easily match the loans and they will call them on...most developers assets were grossly overvalued...when crash came they weren't worth repossessing

Greengrass1

freedominacup wrote: »

We didn't even own where we're farming now when Ireland joined the eec. Ten years later we had 5000l/acre of output on the milking platform with 1970's tech and practices. The most cows that were ever in the fathers home place was 5-6 hand milked in a tie up byre snd these were gone for thr bones of ten years before he started milking here. You might be surprised how fast it happens. Youth, enthusiasm and no artificial production constraints are a potent mix. Every bob for everything here was borrowed at the start. There were no buildings, no roadways and thirty something fields on 90 acres and both entrances wee now use were impassable other than in a summer like 2013. In ten years there was the quota mentioned above, 15 unit parlour, extensive roadways and 4 fields. We haven't had a chance like it since I think people are going to get a land at how fast it happens in places.

Ditto.
As soon as I get slurry storage in place all be bombing on. 3 yrs and I'll be up over 100 cows. Further I hope.

My neighbour beside me must have big plans because he has bought 20ac of bog and leased another 40.

Viewtodiefor

tomwaterford wrote: »

come down to my area....I know of at least 4 lads who are starting at zero and have land to carry 300+ within a 5 miles of me

almost everyone around here with anything over 70-80 acres is going milking??like said above where will it stop...banks lending mad money to people if all you hear is to believed....find it hard to believe myself-banks I hope would never foolish enough to fund a second bubble inside five years of going broke from their last bubble experiment!!

on a another note is a large portion af Africa & asia not lactose intolerant???
or deos the powder by-pass this???(genuine question:o)

The markets are there for the extra milk at present, but like everything a 1% increase in production on a global scale in an oversupplied market will bottom out the market as happened in 09, quota being there did not stop this.
just because there is a bigish handful of lads in the southeast getting into milk this in itself will not flood any market. It's the old adage of price and opportunity that has guys looking to get in on the act, at a point this will end as anyone who wants in will be in and other guys have no notion of it anyway so you'll end up in five to ten years time with a few every year entering and old lads retiring. Plus the age profile and lack of labour will restrict it also as not everyone will want the job of cows 24/7. Looks like prob take 3 to 5 yrs for it to settle down and in that time we will see where the world market settles at, but I'm fairly certain it will continue as before with high prices some years and lower or very low the next. Just those borrowing big need to be very aware of that as they may end up having to do the same hours just to pay the mortgage in a bad year! Like you say the banks have good security this time round , you can be certain of that! What about yourself Tom are you in dairy?

kevthegaff

Lot of lads around here expanding and getting in for the first time. I dont see much more than a 20-30% increase as alot of lads are nearly at max

larrymiller

Lad near me has turned a stable into a 2 unit "parlour" milks 10 cows for the winter, and there just in a field for the summer. He has no land at the parlour just a yard, no slatted tank, no slurry storage for run off water. And ya swear he was milking a thousand of them.
If you could imagine a dairy farmer in killinaskully this would be him

blue5000

larrymiller wrote: »

Lad near me has turned a stable into a 2 unit "parlour" milks 10 cows for the winter, and there just in a field for the summer. He has no land at the parlour just a yard, no slatted tank, no slurry storage for run off water. And ya swear he was milking a thousand of them.
If you could imagine a dairy farmer in killinaskully this would be him

Long time ago the milk marketing board in UK went out to investigate a farmer who was having tbc problems. All he had was a bath and a bag of milk replacer:pac:

J.O. Farmer

keep going wrote: »

By the same logic how did the world survive without extra european milk over the last 30 years-everyone else produced it.so the most effect quotas going are going to affect milk price is for one to years if that after that we are just an other variable for traders to take into consideration. Even if quotas stay you are going to see milk pricesIin the low twenties .as a man said to me talking about the changes to CAP.the people that care going to lose know they are going to lose and the people that are going to win dont know it so thats why change is so hard to bring about.so dream on if you think maintain quotas is going to protect milk price

I'm not in milk myself but at no stage did I say maintaining quota would protect milk price. I think abolishing quota is perhaps a good idea as the market will set a quota naturally. If supply goes above this low demand will keep prices down. High demand will put prices up. Whether the high prices come to the farmers is another matter.
I am simply wondering if the production increase was replicated all over Europe would this not have a negative impact on milk price.
As you quite rightly point out the world has survived the last 30 years without extra European milk because others are producing it. It is unlikely they are going to reduce production.
Regardless of quota I don't think it's many years since it was costing more to produce a litre of milk than came in the creamery cheque. That was with quota. What happens if farmers invest hugely in expansion and are producing even more milk below cost with extra debt. I think the rush to expand could be risky given that while milk is good right now how many cent/litre is the average farmer making as profit.

C0N0R

tomwaterford wrote: »

almost reads like a glanbia press release:rolleyes:...not critizing you or anything....but maybe its 100% ok once powered I just don't know!!

what im getting at is it lactose free???
as I was always lead to believe that it was as much genetic as cultural why milk was mostly consumed in northern Europe

http://milk.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000661





jesus I hope so....if they don't there will be a lot of cross heads...as I don't think banks will give the lee way that they gave to developers as most farmers assets will easily match the loans and they will call them on...most developers assets were grossly overvalued...when crash came they weren't worth repossessing

A2 milk might be the answer or all China's problems!

larrymiller

blue5000 wrote: »

Long time ago the milk marketing board in UK went out to investigate a farmer who was having tbc problems. All he had was a bath and a bag of milk replacer:pac:

Ah here that's a good one, this lad sold a few sites in the good times only has a couple of acres left, drives a big pajero and pull a lovely ifor, I met him one day he said he was going to the mart with a load of calfs, I looked in the trailer and there was one calf and 3 lambs.

Greengrass1

larrymiller wrote: »

Ah here that's a good one, this lad sold a few sites in the good times only has a couple of acres left, drives a big pajero and pull a lovely ifor, I met him one day he said he was going to the mart with a load of calfs, I looked in the trailer and there was one calf and lambs.

Reminds me of a storey my father tells of an old neighbour of our.
This lad used to be on the road day and night with the tractor anfmd trailer.
E eryone thought he was mad busy and a hard worker, until it was discovered that all he was doing was drawing the same bales back and forth between farms

larrymiller

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Reminds me of a storey my father tells of an old neighbour of our.
This lad used to be on the road day and night with the tractor anfmd trailer.
E eryone thought he was mad busy and a hard worker, until it was discovered that all he was doing was drawing the same bales back and forth between farms

And a broken neck from looking over ditches!

hfallada

Germany ships a liter carton of milk to China for only 5 cents a carton. There are ships returning to china near empty. Meaning its cheap to ship to places like China and India. Although a lot of Asians are lactose intolerant

kencoo

Granted it looks like the production of milk is going to increase in the next few years but are the secondary markets i.e. Kerry Glanbia etc gearing up to do something with the extra suppy? are they on expansion to or is it the status quo for them?

bbam

hfallada wrote: »

Germany ships a liter carton of milk to China for only 5 cents a carton. There are ships returning to china near empty. Meaning its cheap to ship to places like China and India. Although a lot of Asians are lactose intolerant

Is that 5c all in or just the shipping??

fermanagh_man

There's lads up in South Armagh that would take it off your hands

http://m.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-26792662

EamonKilkenny

bbam wrote: »

Is that 5c all in or just the shipping??

Shipping costs.