where's all the milk going to go

J.O. Farmer

I've been reading a lot of threads lately with a lot of people getting excited about the prospect of no milk quota. It seems like every dairy farmer in the country is going to expand and we're going to produce an infinite supply of milk.
My question is who's going to buy all this extra milk. Quota seems to be the limiting factor with the market seemingly going to absorb all the extra milk. I presume other countries too will increase milk supply and if there's an oversupply it will drive down the price of milk. This will result in lower prices or more work for less money. Am I missing something but I don't see what there is to be excited about.

mf240

A couple of years at 20 cent a litre will cool a lot of lads.

I'd love to know how an increase in supply will not result in a price drop.

I'm not going to get myself into debt anyway but will be keeping going nice and steady.

Speaking of supply and demand and the irish man's unique understanding of it. Anyone for 20 houses in borrisinossary going cheap, hurry before there all snapped up.

rancher

J.O. Farmer wrote: »

I've been reading a lot of threads lately with a lot of people getting excited about the prospect of no milk quota. It seems like every dairy farmer in the country is going to expand and we're going to produce an infinite supply of milk.
My question is who's going to buy all this extra milk. Quota seems to be the limiting factor with the market seemingly going to absorb all the extra milk. I presume other countries too will increase milk supply and if there's an oversupply it will drive down the price of milk. This will result in lower prices or more work for less money. Am I missing something but I don't see what there is to be excited about.

Race to the bottom.....again

blue5000

Sure it will all be going to China, remember they were over here a couple of years back? Only thing is they WILL own all the extra cows and the parlours that's being built, where do you think the money that's being borrowed now is coming from?:eek:

trixi2011

The milk is going to be sold on the word market. Asian and African country's will be a big market for our milk. The markets and demand are there for all the extra milk Ireland can produce we just need to make sure we are making the products that are in demand and marketing correctly. I think baby milk powder could be a big one for Ireland as we have a good reputation in making quality products. Ensuring we keep our green image will be a must. Ireland is a very small producer is the bigger scheme of things and expansion in countrys such as nz and America will have a bigger influence on price than any increase in production in Ireland

trixi2011

blue5000 wrote: »

Sure it will all be going to China, remember they were over here a couple of years back? Only thing is they WILL own all the extra cows and the parlours that's being built, where do you think the money that's being borrowed now is coming from?:eek:

workn for them at the moment

mf240

Are there not a lot more European countries restricted by quota and will these not expand aswell.

trixi2011

mf240 wrote: »

Are there not a lot more European countries restricted by quota and will these not expand aswell.

They may well expand but a lot of these countries don't seem to be gearing them self up for any large scale expansion.

crackcrack30

trixi2011 wrote: »

The milk is going to be sold on the word market. Asian and African country's will be a big market for our milk. The markets and demand are there for all the extra milk Ireland can produce we just need to make sure we are making the products that are in demand and marketing correctly. I think baby milk powder could be a big one for Ireland as we have a good reputation in making quality products. Ensuring we keep our green image will be a must. Ireland is a very small producer is the bigger scheme of things and expansion in countrys such as nz and America will have a bigger influence on price than any increase in production in Ireland

You are really going to get rich selling into countries where they earn less than 5 euro per day? Loads of cash there to spend on imported high cost products I'd say.............

Sam Kade

crackcrack30 wrote: »

You are really going to get rich selling into countries where they earn less than 5 euro per day? Loads of cash there to spend on imported high cost products I'd say.............

At this stage every farmer know that they will never get rich

hurling_lad

mf240 wrote: »

Are there not a lot more European countries restricted by quota and will these not expand aswell.

Most milk in other European countries is produced indoors. They don't have the scope to expand at relatively low cost like we do here.

Pro Hoc Vice

Ireland currently provides 10% of the world (yes world) consumption of baby formula. China was a tiny consumer of milk a few short years ago, there are serious issues with supply of good product. There is huge money made in the smuggling of milk. Some of the regular supplier countries have had serious quality controll issues. Irish food exports about 4.8 billion euro in 2008 and last year over 9 billion and growing. Irish milk has a very good name abroad, there is a reason irish butter is yellow and most other countries have a horrible white crap.

As long as ireland can produce a high quality product, fed on grass there is a huge market. Remember the middle class in China (the new dairy users) are heading to be a bigger population in itself than the EU.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100938448

http://www.thejournal.ie/food-and-drink-exports-ireland-1253957-Jan2014/

http://www.iatp.org/documents/china’s-dairy-dilemma-the-evolution-and-future-trends-of-china’s-dairy-industry

trixi2011

crackcrack30 wrote: »

You are really going to get rich selling into countries where they earn less than 5 euro per day? Loads of cash there to spend on imported high cost products I'd say.............

They had to put a ban on buying more than one tin of baby milk formula in the supermarkets over here the Asians were clearing the selfs and posting it home as it was seen both safer and cheaper. Some of the African countries are very wealthy because of oil and mineral mining, the hole of Africa is not poor and staving only parts

Pro Hoc Vice

crackcrack30 wrote: »

You are really going to get rich selling into countries where they earn less than 5 euro per day? Loads of cash there to spend on imported high cost products I'd say.............

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/04/ethiopia-faster-rate-millionaires-michael-buerk

Most African countries have fair size middle class.

http://m.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1328125/china-likely-overtake-us-richest-country-number-dollar-millionaires

If you think the whole of Africa, China and India live on less than $5 a day you have no idea. A full half of the world population live in Africa, India, South America and China. All have a growing millionaire and middle class.

Mad4simmental

mf240 wrote: »

A couple of years at 20 cent a litre will cool a lot of lads.

I'd love to know how an increase in supply will not result in a price drop.

I'm not going to get myself into debt anyway but will be keeping going nice and steady.

Speaking of supply and demand and the irish man's unique understanding of it. Anyone for 20 houses in borrisinossary going cheap, hurry before there all snapped up.

No no run and pick up the shopping centre in rathdowney that's going for less than the cost of the glass that was put into it. Cheep deal boss, ha

ford 5600

J.O. Farmer wrote: »

I've been reading a lot of threads lately with a lot of people getting excited about the prospect of no milk quota. It seems like every dairy farmer in the country is going to expand and we're going to produce an infinite supply of milk.
My question is who's going to buy all this extra milk. Quota seems to be the limiting factor with the market seemingly going to absorb all the extra milk. I presume other countries too will increase milk supply and if there's an oversupply it will drive down the price of milk. This will result in lower prices or more work for less money. Am I missing something but I don't see what there is to be excited about.

mf240 wrote: »

A couple of years at 20 cent a litre will cool a lot of lads.

I'd love to know how an increase in supply will not result in a price drop.

I'm not going to get myself into debt anyway but will be keeping going nice and steady.

Speaking of supply and demand and the irish man's unique understanding of it. Anyone for 20 houses in borrisinossary going cheap, hurry before there all snapped up.

Its good to know that there are at least two sane farmers left in the country. Have people not learned from the bull beef fiasco at the minute what a rise in supply with no rise in demand results in ? I think there will be some very sorry people standing out on their " grazing platforms" holding their heads in their hands wondering why they took on debt of 10c a litre and why they are running twice as fast to go backwards.

Reggie.

trixi2011 wrote: »

They had to put a ban on buying more than one tin of baby milk formula in the supermarkets over here the Asians were clearing the selfs and posting it home as it was seen both safer and cheaper. Some of the African countries are very wealthy because of oil and mineral mining, the hole of Africa is not poor and staving only parts

I noticed that in the local shops alright and So that was the reason

Round Bale

trixi2011 wrote: »

They had to put a ban on buying more than one tin of baby milk formula in the supermarkets over here the Asians were clearing the selfs and posting it home as it was seen both safer and cheaper. Some of the African countries are very wealthy because of oil and mineral mining, the hole of Africa is not poor and staving only parts

Where's Africa's hole?:eek:

charleysurf

while there'll be some expansion in dairying in Ireland I think people are overestimating how much there'll actually be. you'll always hear of fellows talking about their plans to expand as that's only natural because theyre excited but for every fellow talking about expansion I'd wager there another couple of farmer at capacity and looking to stay as he is or even downsize. if you look at the age profile of the farmers in the country there's still a large proportion of them over 65 and is it 8% under 35? that's not an age profile that lends itself to expansion either.

whelan2

charleysurf wrote: »

while there'll be some expansion in dairying in Ireland I think people are overestimating how much there'll actually be. you'll always hear of fellows talking about their plans to expand as that's only natural because theyre excited but for every fellow talking about expansion I'd wager there another couple of farmer at capacity and looking to stay as he is or even downsize. if you look at the age profile of the farmers in the country there's still a large proportion of them over 65 and is it 8% under 35? that's not an age profile that lends itself to expansion either.

very true i dont know many farmers that are expanding around me

keep going

J.O. Farmer wrote: »

I've been reading a lot of threads lately with a lot of people getting excited about the prospect of no milk quota. It seems like every dairy farmer in the country is going to expand and we're going to produce an infinite supply of milk.
My question is who's going to buy all this extra milk. Quota seems to be the limiting factor with the market seemingly going to absorb all the extra milk. I presume other countries too will increase milk supply and if there's an oversupply it will drive down the price of milk. This will result in lower prices or more work for less money. Am I missing something but I don't see what there is to be excited about.

By the same logic how did the world survive without extra european milk over the last 30 years-everyone else produced it.so the most effect quotas going are going to affect milk price is for one to years if that after that we are just an other variable for traders to take into consideration. Even if quotas stay you are going to see milk pricesIin the low twenties .as a man said to me talking about the changes to CAP.the people that care going to lose know they are going to lose and the people that are going to win dont know it so thats why change is so hard to bring about.so dream on if you think maintain quotas is going to protect milk price

TEAT SQUEEZER

Round Bale wrote: »

Where's Africa's hole?:eek:

near its horn silly:)

frazzledhome

Milk is a commodity and like any other can only be produced with as cheap a unit cost as is possible.

Barring a scare Ireland is well positioned with a great reputation to supply high end prodilucts aswell as the powders.

On expansion it's over talked and won't be as dramatic as we think, a few big ones and a lot of guys replacing beef with 20-30 cows.

New entrants need to be really good managers as the one thing that will sink them is a high debt level coupled with lack of experience. High debt and good management is very doable as many are in that position at the moment

TEAT SQUEEZER

we`re int our 7-8 th season of fluctuation since the majority of market supports were removed from eu milk but have still had the quotas limiting production oppertunities so no scope to take advantage when prices are high and minimal protection when they`re low.........

i dont see what the alternatives are if a farmer has a land base to allow expansion and feels up to the job of milking more cows......... any tillage ive ever done has just kept the contractor paid and as for beef well you know the rest:rolleyes:

tomwaterford

charleysurf wrote: »

while there'll be some expansion in dairying in Ireland I think people are overestimating how much there'll actually be. you'll always hear of fellows talking about their plans to expand as that's only natural because theyre excited but for every fellow talking about expansion I'd wager there another couple of farmer at capacity and looking to stay as he is or even downsize. if you look at the age profile of the farmers in the country there's still a large proportion of them over 65 and is it 8% under 35? that's not an age profile that lends itself to expansion either.

come down to my area....I know of at least 4 lads who are starting at zero and have land to carry 300+ within a 5 miles of me

almost everyone around here with anything over 70-80 acres is going milking??like said above where will it stop...banks lending mad money to people if all you hear is to believed....find it hard to believe myself-banks I hope would never foolish enough to fund a second bubble inside five years of going broke from their last bubble experiment!!

on a another note is a large portion af Africa & asia not lactose intolerant???
or deos the powder by-pass this???(genuine question:o)

TEAT SQUEEZER

Reggie. wrote: »

I noticed that in the local shops alright and So that was the reason

the mammies of ireland have had to do a refresher course in stock taking ..gone are the days of nipping out to get the aptimal ... had to leave a super market empty handed one night .. late chemist saved the day (well rewarded they were too grrr)

TEAT SQUEEZER

tomwaterford wrote: »

come down to my area....I know of at least 4 lads who are starting at zero and have land to carry 300+ within a 5 miles of me

almost everyone around here with anything over 70-80 acres is going milking??like said above where will it stop...banks lending mad money to people if all you hear is to believed....find it hard to believe myself-banks I hope would never foolish enough to fund a second bubble inside five years of going broke from their last bubble experiment!!

on a another note is a large portion af Africa & asia not lactose intolerant???
or deos the powder by-pass this???(genuine question:o)[/QUOTE]

authorities in china have great mass on school milk programs... glanbia are on the point of bringing out a uht milk with an 18 mth shelf life and an open -life of a week UNREFRIGERATED.... get it intya cynthia

tabby aspreme

A lad I know who is in the bulk powder shipping business and is well connected in China reckons the Chinese will take every drop of milk powder we have. There's a nice few lads getting back into cows around me and I believe a 250 acre block adjoining the ploughing site in Athy will have cows on it shortly

towzer2010

tomwaterford wrote: »

on a another note is a large portion af Africa & asia not lactose intolerant???
or deos the powder by-pass this???(genuine question:o)

Milk powder still contains lactose unless its removed and with baby formula its a specialised product. I'd think these countries would use soy baby formula more than milk based.

charleysurf

tomwaterford wrote: »

come down to my area....I know of at least 4 lads who are starting at zero and have land to carry 300+ within a 5 miles of me

almost everyone around here with anything over 70-80 acres is going milking??like said above where will it stop...banks lending mad money to people if all you hear is to believed....find it hard to believe myself-banks I hope would never foolish enough to fund a second bubble inside five years of going broke from their last bubble experiment!

there is no doubt there'll be pockets in the country where expansion will take place. Waterford is always a big dairying county and have large tracks of good land but look across the country, can you see the same happening in every county. Kerry and aurivo are under quota this year not huge capacity for expand there. you'll probably get expansion along a line between cork and Dublin but little else where.

theres no chance the banks will be caught out again so soon again. they're a lot more conscience now and most loans require 30% cash upfront so that's keep the messers in check. also all this expansion wont happen overnight, it'll take years to happen.

Reggie.

TEAT SQUEEZER wrote: »

the mammies of ireland have had to do a refresher course in stock taking ..gone are the days of nipping out to get the aptimal ... had to leave a super market empty handed one night .. late chemist saved the day (well rewarded they were too grrr)

We stock up well here just in case