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where's all the milk going to go

  • 30-03-2014 10:13pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭


    I've been reading a lot of threads lately with a lot of people getting excited about the prospect of no milk quota. It seems like every dairy farmer in the country is going to expand and we're going to produce an infinite supply of milk.
    My question is who's going to buy all this extra milk. Quota seems to be the limiting factor with the market seemingly going to absorb all the extra milk. I presume other countries too will increase milk supply and if there's an oversupply it will drive down the price of milk. This will result in lower prices or more work for less money. Am I missing something but I don't see what there is to be excited about.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭mf240


    A couple of years at 20 cent a litre will cool a lot of lads.

    I'd love to know how an increase in supply will not result in a price drop.

    I'm not going to get myself into debt anyway but will be keeping going nice and steady.

    Speaking of supply and demand and the irish man's unique understanding of it. Anyone for 20 houses in borrisinossary going cheap, hurry before there all snapped up.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,142 ✭✭✭rancher


    I've been reading a lot of threads lately with a lot of people getting excited about the prospect of no milk quota. It seems like every dairy farmer in the country is going to expand and we're going to produce an infinite supply of milk.
    My question is who's going to buy all this extra milk. Quota seems to be the limiting factor with the market seemingly going to absorb all the extra milk. I presume other countries too will increase milk supply and if there's an oversupply it will drive down the price of milk. This will result in lower prices or more work for less money. Am I missing something but I don't see what there is to be excited about.

    Race to the bottom.....again


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,754 Mod ✭✭✭✭blue5000


    Sure it will all be going to China, remember they were over here a couple of years back? Only thing is they WILL own all the extra cows and the parlours that's being built, where do you think the money that's being borrowed now is coming from?:eek:

    If the seat's wet, sit on yer hat, a cool head is better than a wet ar5e.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭trixi2011


    The milk is going to be sold on the word market. Asian and African country's will be a big market for our milk. The markets and demand are there for all the extra milk Ireland can produce we just need to make sure we are making the products that are in demand and marketing correctly. I think baby milk powder could be a big one for Ireland as we have a good reputation in making quality products. Ensuring we keep our green image will be a must. Ireland is a very small producer is the bigger scheme of things and expansion in countrys such as nz and America will have a bigger influence on price than any increase in production in Ireland


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭trixi2011


    blue5000 wrote: »
    Sure it will all be going to China, remember they were over here a couple of years back? Only thing is they WILL own all the extra cows and the parlours that's being built, where do you think the money that's being borrowed now is coming from?:eek:
    workn for them at the moment ;)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭mf240


    Are there not a lot more European countries restricted by quota and will these not expand aswell.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭trixi2011


    mf240 wrote: »
    Are there not a lot more European countries restricted by quota and will these not expand aswell.
    They may well expand but a lot of these countries don't seem to be gearing them self up for any large scale expansion.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭crackcrack30


    trixi2011 wrote: »
    The milk is going to be sold on the word market. Asian and African country's will be a big market for our milk. The markets and demand are there for all the extra milk Ireland can produce we just need to make sure we are making the products that are in demand and marketing correctly. I think baby milk powder could be a big one for Ireland as we have a good reputation in making quality products. Ensuring we keep our green image will be a must. Ireland is a very small producer is the bigger scheme of things and expansion in countrys such as nz and America will have a bigger influence on price than any increase in production in Ireland





    You are really going to get rich selling into countries where they earn less than 5 euro per day? Loads of cash there to spend on imported high cost products I'd say.............


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,313 ✭✭✭✭Sam Kade


    You are really going to get rich selling into countries where they earn less than 5 euro per day? Loads of cash there to spend on imported high cost products I'd say.............
    At this stage every farmer know that they will never get rich ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 346 ✭✭hurling_lad


    mf240 wrote: »
    Are there not a lot more European countries restricted by quota and will these not expand aswell.

    Most milk in other European countries is produced indoors. They don't have the scope to expand at relatively low cost like we do here.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,087 ✭✭✭Pro Hoc Vice


    Ireland currently provides 10% of the world (yes world) consumption of baby formula. China was a tiny consumer of milk a few short years ago, there are serious issues with supply of good product. There is huge money made in the smuggling of milk. Some of the regular supplier countries have had serious quality controll issues. Irish food exports about 4.8 billion euro in 2008 and last year over 9 billion and growing. Irish milk has a very good name abroad, there is a reason irish butter is yellow and most other countries have a horrible white crap.

    As long as ireland can produce a high quality product, fed on grass there is a huge market. Remember the middle class in China (the new dairy users) are heading to be a bigger population in itself than the EU.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100938448

    http://www.thejournal.ie/food-and-drink-exports-ireland-1253957-Jan2014/

    http://www.iatp.org/documents/china’s-dairy-dilemma-the-evolution-and-future-trends-of-china’s-dairy-industry


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭trixi2011


    You are really going to get rich selling into countries where they earn less than 5 euro per day? Loads of cash there to spend on imported high cost products I'd say.............
    They had to put a ban on buying more than one tin of baby milk formula in the supermarkets over here the Asians were clearing the selfs and posting it home as it was seen both safer and cheaper. Some of the African countries are very wealthy because of oil and mineral mining, the hole of Africa is not poor and staving only parts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,087 ✭✭✭Pro Hoc Vice


    You are really going to get rich selling into countries where they earn less than 5 euro per day? Loads of cash there to spend on imported high cost products I'd say.............

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/04/ethiopia-faster-rate-millionaires-michael-buerk

    Most African countries have fair size middle class.

    http://m.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1328125/china-likely-overtake-us-richest-country-number-dollar-millionaires

    If you think the whole of Africa, China and India live on less than $5 a day you have no idea. A full half of the world population live in Africa, India, South America and China. All have a growing millionaire and middle class.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭Mad4simmental


    mf240 wrote: »
    A couple of years at 20 cent a litre will cool a lot of lads.

    I'd love to know how an increase in supply will not result in a price drop.

    I'm not going to get myself into debt anyway but will be keeping going nice and steady.

    Speaking of supply and demand and the irish man's unique understanding of it. Anyone for 20 houses in borrisinossary going cheap, hurry before there all snapped up.

    No no run and pick up the shopping centre in rathdowney that's going for less than the cost of the glass that was put into it. Cheep deal boss, ha


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 206 ✭✭ford 5600


    I've been reading a lot of threads lately with a lot of people getting excited about the prospect of no milk quota. It seems like every dairy farmer in the country is going to expand and we're going to produce an infinite supply of milk.
    My question is who's going to buy all this extra milk. Quota seems to be the limiting factor with the market seemingly going to absorb all the extra milk. I presume other countries too will increase milk supply and if there's an oversupply it will drive down the price of milk. This will result in lower prices or more work for less money. Am I missing something but I don't see what there is to be excited about.
    mf240 wrote: »
    A couple of years at 20 cent a litre will cool a lot of lads.

    I'd love to know how an increase in supply will not result in a price drop.

    I'm not going to get myself into debt anyway but will be keeping going nice and steady.

    Speaking of supply and demand and the irish man's unique understanding of it. Anyone for 20 houses in borrisinossary going cheap, hurry before there all snapped up.
    Its good to know that there are at least two sane farmers left in the country. Have people not learned from the bull beef fiasco at the minute what a rise in supply with no rise in demand results in ? I think there will be some very sorry people standing out on their " grazing platforms" holding their heads in their hands wondering why they took on debt of 10c a litre and why they are running twice as fast to go backwards.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,546 ✭✭✭✭Reggie.


    trixi2011 wrote: »
    They had to put a ban on buying more than one tin of baby milk formula in the supermarkets over here the Asians were clearing the selfs and posting it home as it was seen both safer and cheaper. Some of the African countries are very wealthy because of oil and mineral mining, the hole of Africa is not poor and staving only parts

    I noticed that in the local shops alright and So that was the reason


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 118 ✭✭Round Bale


    trixi2011 wrote: »
    They had to put a ban on buying more than one tin of baby milk formula in the supermarkets over here the Asians were clearing the selfs and posting it home as it was seen both safer and cheaper. Some of the African countries are very wealthy because of oil and mineral mining, the hole of Africa is not poor and staving only parts

    Where's Africa's hole?:eek:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 46 charleysurf


    while there'll be some expansion in dairying in Ireland I think people are overestimating how much there'll actually be. you'll always hear of fellows talking about their plans to expand as that's only natural because theyre excited but for every fellow talking about expansion I'd wager there another couple of farmer at capacity and looking to stay as he is or even downsize. if you look at the age profile of the farmers in the country there's still a large proportion of them over 65 and is it 8% under 35? that's not an age profile that lends itself to expansion either.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,217 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    while there'll be some expansion in dairying in Ireland I think people are overestimating how much there'll actually be. you'll always hear of fellows talking about their plans to expand as that's only natural because theyre excited but for every fellow talking about expansion I'd wager there another couple of farmer at capacity and looking to stay as he is or even downsize. if you look at the age profile of the farmers in the country there's still a large proportion of them over 65 and is it 8% under 35? that's not an age profile that lends itself to expansion either.
    very true i dont know many farmers that are expanding around me


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,551 ✭✭✭keep going


    I've been reading a lot of threads lately with a lot of people getting excited about the prospect of no milk quota. It seems like every dairy farmer in the country is going to expand and we're going to produce an infinite supply of milk.
    My question is who's going to buy all this extra milk. Quota seems to be the limiting factor with the market seemingly going to absorb all the extra milk. I presume other countries too will increase milk supply and if there's an oversupply it will drive down the price of milk. This will result in lower prices or more work for less money. Am I missing something but I don't see what there is to be excited about.
    By the same logic how did the world survive without extra european milk over the last 30 years-everyone else produced it.so the most effect quotas going are going to affect milk price is for one to years if that after that we are just an other variable for traders to take into consideration. Even if quotas stay you are going to see milk pricesIin the low twenties .as a man said to me talking about the changes to CAP.the people that care going to lose know they are going to lose and the people that are going to win dont know it so thats why change is so hard to bring about.so dream on if you think maintain quotas is going to protect milk price


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 516 ✭✭✭TEAT SQUEEZER


    Round Bale wrote: »
    Where's Africa's hole?:eek:

    near its horn silly:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,278 ✭✭✭frazzledhome


    Milk is a commodity and like any other can only be produced with as cheap a unit cost as is possible.

    Barring a scare Ireland is well positioned with a great reputation to supply high end prodilucts aswell as the powders.

    On expansion it's over talked and won't be as dramatic as we think, a few big ones and a lot of guys replacing beef with 20-30 cows.

    New entrants need to be really good managers as the one thing that will sink them is a high debt level coupled with lack of experience. High debt and good management is very doable as many are in that position at the moment


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 516 ✭✭✭TEAT SQUEEZER


    we`re int our 7-8 th season of fluctuation since the majority of market supports were removed from eu milk but have still had the quotas limiting production oppertunities so no scope to take advantage when prices are high and minimal protection when they`re low.........

    i dont see what the alternatives are if a farmer has a land base to allow expansion and feels up to the job of milking more cows......... any tillage ive ever done has just kept the contractor paid and as for beef well you know the rest:rolleyes:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,768 ✭✭✭✭tomwaterford


    while there'll be some expansion in dairying in Ireland I think people are overestimating how much there'll actually be. you'll always hear of fellows talking about their plans to expand as that's only natural because theyre excited but for every fellow talking about expansion I'd wager there another couple of farmer at capacity and looking to stay as he is or even downsize. if you look at the age profile of the farmers in the country there's still a large proportion of them over 65 and is it 8% under 35? that's not an age profile that lends itself to expansion either.


    come down to my area....I know of at least 4 lads who are starting at zero and have land to carry 300+ within a 5 miles of me

    almost everyone around here with anything over 70-80 acres is going milking??like said above where will it stop...banks lending mad money to people if all you hear is to believed....find it hard to believe myself-banks I hope would never foolish enough to fund a second bubble inside five years of going broke from their last bubble experiment!!

    on a another note is a large portion af Africa & asia not lactose intolerant???
    or deos the powder by-pass this???(genuine question:o)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 516 ✭✭✭TEAT SQUEEZER


    Reggie. wrote: »
    I noticed that in the local shops alright and So that was the reason
    the mammies of ireland have had to do a refresher course in stock taking ..gone are the days of nipping out to get the aptimal ... had to leave a super market empty handed one night .. late chemist saved the day (well rewarded they were too grrr)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 516 ✭✭✭TEAT SQUEEZER


    come down to my area....I know of at least 4 lads who are starting at zero and have land to carry 300+ within a 5 miles of me

    almost everyone around here with anything over 70-80 acres is going milking??like said above where will it stop...banks lending mad money to people if all you hear is to believed....find it hard to believe myself-banks I hope would never foolish enough to fund a second bubble inside five years of going broke from their last bubble experiment!!

    on a another note is a large portion af Africa & asia not lactose intolerant???
    or deos the powder by-pass this???(genuine question:o)[/QUOTE]

    authorities in china have great mass on school milk programs... glanbia are on the point of bringing out a uht milk with an 18 mth shelf life and an open -life of a week UNREFRIGERATED.... get it intya cynthia


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,099 ✭✭✭tabby aspreme


    A lad I know who is in the bulk powder shipping business and is well connected in China reckons the Chinese will take every drop of milk powder we have. There's a nice few lads getting back into cows around me and I believe a 250 acre block adjoining the ploughing site in Athy will have cows on it shortly


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 533 ✭✭✭towzer2010


    on a another note is a large portion af Africa & asia not lactose intolerant???
    or deos the powder by-pass this???(genuine question:o)

    Milk powder still contains lactose unless its removed and with baby formula its a specialised product. I'd think these countries would use soy baby formula more than milk based.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 46 charleysurf


    come down to my area....I know of at least 4 lads who are starting at zero and have land to carry 300+ within a 5 miles of me

    almost everyone around here with anything over 70-80 acres is going milking??like said above where will it stop...banks lending mad money to people if all you hear is to believed....find it hard to believe myself-banks I hope would never foolish enough to fund a second bubble inside five years of going broke from their last bubble experiment!

    there is no doubt there'll be pockets in the country where expansion will take place. Waterford is always a big dairying county and have large tracks of good land but look across the country, can you see the same happening in every county. Kerry and aurivo are under quota this year not huge capacity for expand there. you'll probably get expansion along a line between cork and Dublin but little else where.

    theres no chance the banks will be caught out again so soon again. they're a lot more conscience now and most loans require 30% cash upfront so that's keep the messers in check. also all this expansion wont happen overnight, it'll take years to happen.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,546 ✭✭✭✭Reggie.


    the mammies of ireland have had to do a refresher course in stock taking ..gone are the days of nipping out to get the aptimal ... had to leave a super market empty handed one night .. late chemist saved the day (well rewarded they were too grrr)

    We stock up well here just in case


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,217 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    Reggie. wrote: »
    We stock up well here just in case
    we used to go to sainsburys in newry and stock up. Once i bought a load and had to change the formula the child was on a few days later


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,546 ✭✭✭✭Reggie.


    whelan2 wrote: »
    we used to go to sainsburys in newry and stock up. Once i bought a load and had to change the formula the child was on a few days later

    That's always the way.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,920 ✭✭✭freedominacup


    there is no doubt there'll be pockets in the country where expansion will take place. Waterford is always a big dairying county and have large tracks of good land but look across the country, can you see the same happening in every county. Kerry and aurivo are under quota this year not huge capacity for expand there. you'll probably get expansion along a line between cork and Dublin but little else where.

    theres no chance the banks will be caught out again so soon again. they're a lot more conscience now and most loans require 30% cash upfront so that's keep the messers in check. also all this expansion wont happen overnight, it'll take years to happen.

    We didn't even own where we're farming now when Ireland joined the eec. Ten years later we had 5000l/acre of output on the milking platform with 1970's tech and practices. The most cows that were ever in the fathers home place was 5-6 hand milked in a tie up byre snd these were gone for thr bones of ten years before he started milking here. You might be surprised how fast it happens. Youth, enthusiasm and no artificial production constraints are a potent mix. Every bob for everything here was borrowed at the start. There were no buildings, no roadways and thirty something fields on 90 acres and both entrances wee now use were impassable other than in a summer like 2013. In ten years there was the quota mentioned above, 15 unit parlour, extensive roadways and 4 fields. We haven't had a chance like it since I think people are going to get a land at how fast it happens in places.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,063 ✭✭✭Greenmachine


    Maybe it is time to look at making bio-diesel from all that butter.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 346 ✭✭hurling_lad


    we`re int our 7-8 th season of fluctuation since the majority of market supports were removed from eu milk but have still had the quotas limiting production oppertunities so no scope to take advantage when prices are high and minimal protection when they`re low.........

    i dont see what the alternatives are if a farmer has a land base to allow expansion and feels up to the job of milking more cows......... any tillage ive ever done has just kept the contractor paid and as for beef well you know the rest:rolleyes:

    Bang-on re: tillage. From where I'm sitting I could throw one stone and it would hit the parlour and throw two more stones and they would land in stubble fields which, after much arguing, I've concluded are only there because of 1) quota and 2) the old man's fondness for ploughing. The profit per hectare wouldn't keep my seven year old in sweets for the year.

    As for worries about expansion flooding the market, it says here that EU output will increase by 10bn litres between 2015 and 2020. This seems like a lot, but when you look at the below stats, it's less than a 1.2% annual increase on what the EU produces now.
    300984.gif


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,768 ✭✭✭✭tomwaterford



    authorities in china have great mass on school milk programs... glanbia are on the point of bringing out a uht milk with an 18 mth shelf life and an open -life of a week UNREFRIGERATED.... get it intya cynthia

    almost reads like a glanbia press release:rolleyes:...not critizing you or anything....but maybe its 100% ok once powered I just don't know!!

    what im getting at is it lactose free???
    as I was always lead to believe that it was as much genetic as cultural why milk was mostly consumed in northern Europe

    http://milk.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000661

    there is no doubt there'll be pockets in the country where expansion will take place. Waterford is always a big dairying county and have large tracks of good land but look across the country, can you see the same happening in every county. Kerry and aurivo are under quota this year not huge capacity for expand there. you'll probably get expansion along a line between cork and Dublin but little else where.

    theres no chance the banks will be caught out again so soon again. they're a lot more conscience now and most loans require 30% cash upfront so that's keep the messers in check. also all this expansion wont happen overnight, it'll take years to happen.


    jesus I hope so....if they don't there will be a lot of cross heads...as I don't think banks will give the lee way that they gave to developers as most farmers assets will easily match the loans and they will call them on...most developers assets were grossly overvalued...when crash came they weren't worth repossessing


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,493 ✭✭✭Greengrass1


    We didn't even own where we're farming now when Ireland joined the eec. Ten years later we had 5000l/acre of output on the milking platform with 1970's tech and practices. The most cows that were ever in the fathers home place was 5-6 hand milked in a tie up byre snd these were gone for thr bones of ten years before he started milking here. You might be surprised how fast it happens. Youth, enthusiasm and no artificial production constraints are a potent mix. Every bob for everything here was borrowed at the start. There were no buildings, no roadways and thirty something fields on 90 acres and both entrances wee now use were impassable other than in a summer like 2013. In ten years there was the quota mentioned above, 15 unit parlour, extensive roadways and 4 fields. We haven't had a chance like it since I think people are going to get a land at how fast it happens in places.


    Ditto.
    As soon as I get slurry storage in place all be bombing on. 3 yrs and I'll be up over 100 cows. Further I hope.

    My neighbour beside me must have big plans because he has bought 20ac of bog and leased another 40.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭Viewtodiefor


    come down to my area....I know of at least 4 lads who are starting at zero and have land to carry 300+ within a 5 miles of me

    almost everyone around here with anything over 70-80 acres is going milking??like said above where will it stop...banks lending mad money to people if all you hear is to believed....find it hard to believe myself-banks I hope would never foolish enough to fund a second bubble inside five years of going broke from their last bubble experiment!!

    on a another note is a large portion af Africa & asia not lactose intolerant???
    or deos the powder by-pass this???(genuine question:o)

    The markets are there for the extra milk at present, but like everything a 1% increase in production on a global scale in an oversupplied market will bottom out the market as happened in 09, quota being there did not stop this.
    just because there is a bigish handful of lads in the southeast getting into milk this in itself will not flood any market. It's the old adage of price and opportunity that has guys looking to get in on the act, at a point this will end as anyone who wants in will be in and other guys have no notion of it anyway so you'll end up in five to ten years time with a few every year entering and old lads retiring. Plus the age profile and lack of labour will restrict it also as not everyone will want the job of cows 24/7. Looks like prob take 3 to 5 yrs for it to settle down and in that time we will see where the world market settles at, but I'm fairly certain it will continue as before with high prices some years and lower or very low the next. Just those borrowing big need to be very aware of that as they may end up having to do the same hours just to pay the mortgage in a bad year! Like you say the banks have good security this time round , you can be certain of that! What about yourself Tom are you in dairy?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    Lot of lads around here expanding and getting in for the first time. I dont see much more than a 20-30% increase as alot of lads are nearly at max


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,456 ✭✭✭larrymiller


    Lad near me has turned a stable into a 2 unit "parlour" milks 10 cows for the winter, and there just in a field for the summer. He has no land at the parlour just a yard, no slatted tank, no slurry storage for run off water. And ya swear he was milking a thousand of them.
    If you could imagine a dairy farmer in killinaskully this would be him


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,754 Mod ✭✭✭✭blue5000


    Lad near me has turned a stable into a 2 unit "parlour" milks 10 cows for the winter, and there just in a field for the summer. He has no land at the parlour just a yard, no slatted tank, no slurry storage for run off water. And ya swear he was milking a thousand of them.
    If you could imagine a dairy farmer in killinaskully this would be him

    Long time ago the milk marketing board in UK went out to investigate a farmer who was having tbc problems. All he had was a bath and a bag of milk replacer:pac:

    If the seat's wet, sit on yer hat, a cool head is better than a wet ar5e.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭J.O. Farmer


    keep going wrote: »
    By the same logic how did the world survive without extra european milk over the last 30 years-everyone else produced it.so the most effect quotas going are going to affect milk price is for one to years if that after that we are just an other variable for traders to take into consideration. Even if quotas stay you are going to see milk pricesIin the low twenties .as a man said to me talking about the changes to CAP.the people that care going to lose know they are going to lose and the people that are going to win dont know it so thats why change is so hard to bring about.so dream on if you think maintain quotas is going to protect milk price

    I'm not in milk myself but at no stage did I say maintaining quota would protect milk price. I think abolishing quota is perhaps a good idea as the market will set a quota naturally. If supply goes above this low demand will keep prices down. High demand will put prices up. Whether the high prices come to the farmers is another matter.
    I am simply wondering if the production increase was replicated all over Europe would this not have a negative impact on milk price.
    As you quite rightly point out the world has survived the last 30 years without extra European milk because others are producing it. It is unlikely they are going to reduce production.
    Regardless of quota I don't think it's many years since it was costing more to produce a litre of milk than came in the creamery cheque. That was with quota. What happens if farmers invest hugely in expansion and are producing even more milk below cost with extra debt. I think the rush to expand could be risky given that while milk is good right now how many cent/litre is the average farmer making as profit.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,954 ✭✭✭C0N0R


    almost reads like a glanbia press release:rolleyes:...not critizing you or anything....but maybe its 100% ok once powered I just don't know!!

    what im getting at is it lactose free???
    as I was always lead to believe that it was as much genetic as cultural why milk was mostly consumed in northern Europe

    http://milk.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000661





    jesus I hope so....if they don't there will be a lot of cross heads...as I don't think banks will give the lee way that they gave to developers as most farmers assets will easily match the loans and they will call them on...most developers assets were grossly overvalued...when crash came they weren't worth repossessing

    A2 milk might be the answer or all China's problems!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,456 ✭✭✭larrymiller


    blue5000 wrote: »
    Long time ago the milk marketing board in UK went out to investigate a farmer who was having tbc problems. All he had was a bath and a bag of milk replacer:pac:

    Ah here that's a good one, this lad sold a few sites in the good times only has a couple of acres left, drives a big pajero and pull a lovely ifor, I met him one day he said he was going to the mart with a load of calfs, I looked in the trailer and there was one calf and 3 lambs.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,493 ✭✭✭Greengrass1


    Ah here that's a good one, this lad sold a few sites in the good times only has a couple of acres left, drives a big pajero and pull a lovely ifor, I met him one day he said he was going to the mart with a load of calfs, I looked in the trailer and there was one calf and lambs.

    Reminds me of a storey my father tells of an old neighbour of our.
    This lad used to be on the road day and night with the tractor anfmd trailer.
    E eryone thought he was mad busy and a hard worker, until it was discovered that all he was doing was drawing the same bales back and forth between farms


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,456 ✭✭✭larrymiller


    Reminds me of a storey my father tells of an old neighbour of our.
    This lad used to be on the road day and night with the tractor anfmd trailer.
    E eryone thought he was mad busy and a hard worker, until it was discovered that all he was doing was drawing the same bales back and forth between farms

    And a broken neck from looking over ditches!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,180 ✭✭✭hfallada


    Germany ships a liter carton of milk to China for only 5 cents a carton. There are ships returning to china near empty. Meaning its cheap to ship to places like China and India. Although a lot of Asians are lactose intolerant


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 212 ✭✭kencoo


    Granted it looks like the production of milk is going to increase in the next few years but are the secondary markets i.e. Kerry Glanbia etc gearing up to do something with the extra suppy? are they on expansion to or is it the status quo for them?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,410 ✭✭✭bbam


    hfallada wrote: »
    Germany ships a liter carton of milk to China for only 5 cents a carton. There are ships returning to china near empty. Meaning its cheap to ship to places like China and India. Although a lot of Asians are lactose intolerant

    Is that 5c all in or just the shipping??


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 810 ✭✭✭fermanagh_man


    There's lads up in South Armagh that would take it off your hands

    http://m.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-26792662


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