..The end is nigh..

Greengrass1

larrymiller wrote: »

What would be a good price? Or what is it decided on?
Also how would it work having your cattle on my farm with my cattle. (Obviously not mixed but you get the idea

I couldn't tell you that as haven't looked into it yet will be 5 yrs or more before its a runner.
I here figure of €1/day bantered around but I don't know if that's high enough.
Depends if they had a specific area of the farm vomited to the heifers like silage ground in between or something and what disease sraus your herd has

sheebadog

The problem I see with contract rearing is that dairymen will want beef men to do it for much the same return as sucklers.
Dairymen are not going to give them the same kind of returns as milk!

Mad4simmental

stop thelights wrote: »

I was just reading in the farm exam there that china is slowing down big time. Exports were down 18% last month and they added something like 30 trillion to the world debt in the last 5years. Going forward the key is not to over stretch finaically hopefully china can bounce and kept things ticking along!

In my opinion I don't think china is the answer to allot of industry's that people think it is. Huge debt allong with corruption. I think china is in for a really Big Bang in the coming years.

Expansion ect has been spoken to death here, I'm not in the dairy myself but the big cash made in it is off the protein powder going for around $8k a tonne. If it gets an over supply its going to have the same affect as anything elce.

The people that are well established in dairy all reddy and run it well should be ok in the slump that's bound to cum in a few years. But it's hard to feel sorry or have an I told ya so mentality to the lads starting out borrowing $500k to get set up. It's worth sitting on the fence for a while IMO.

That's more a post than a reply to you stop thelights

Timmaay

I'm actively looking for someone to contract rear here (if your interested and in east wicklow pm me!), after losing a nice big block of the most conveniently located land, to be honest I'm in no real mood to go out trying to get bits and bobs of land miles away for big money and then probably have to spend on fencing /water etc etc. Having the heifers contract reared, and then put all my effort into improving the milking block would be a much better plan I think.

Gillespy

mf240 wrote: »

Ya I'm beside myself with excitement.

Only 366 more sleeps!1!

TEAT SQUEEZER

mf240 wrote: »

Ya I'm beside myself with excitement.
It's not like every other commodity in the world which is subject to market forces or supply and demand. Seemingly you can produce milk as you want and the price won't ever fall.

Good old paddy farmer sure as long as you have more cows than your neighbour and the farm looks well from the road sure that's all that matters.

have u made money from milk in the past ??.... i`d suggest so...i`d have a v low quota per acre and farm in a coop area where its hardest to get quota so i welcome the end cos it gives me a chance to use my land to a greater efficency and puts an end to farming for the sake of it with alternatives.. lets not hope anyone fails post quota cos we`ll all be getting the same price ...established or developing

frazzledhome

Gillespy wrote: »

Only 366 more sleeps!1!

Very good, lol

djmc

I am the opposite to most here I am giving serious thought to giving up dairying and doing contract rearing for someone else.
The reason being a steady income with sfp more time for young family and other jobs and wouldn't be as exposed to open market prices and bad weather
Calves and heifers won't poach wet ground as much as dairy cows and won't eat as much either .

tomwaterford

djmc wrote: »

I am the opposite to most here I am giving serious thought to giving up dairying and doing contract rearing for someone else.
The reason being a steady income with sfp more time for young family and other jobs and wouldn't be as exposed to open market prices and bad weather
Calves and heifers won't poach wet ground as much as dairy cows and won't eat as much either .

will the numbers of heifiers to be contract reared fall massively in say 5 -7 years when most of lads who have expanded begin to get to their magic number/max possible stocking rate and then they will be only rear replacements in what will be a flooded market/low price paid as a result

admitely most farmers would probily be willing to pay a little over the odds if they using the same contract rearer with years!!

Timmaay

tomwaterford wrote: »

will the numbers of heifiers to be contract reared fall massively in say 5 -7 years when most of lads who have expanded begin to get to their magic number/max possible stocking rate and then they will be only rear replacements in what will be a flooded market/low price paid as a result

admitely most farmers would probily be willing to pay a little over the odds if they using the same contract rearer with years!!

No, simple as is heifers are too bloody expensive to knock out ad hoc, only to realize when they are calved down that you'll only get a grand or less for them. I think saturation will hit far sooner than 5-7 years to be honest, esp if sexed semen becomes reliable. But anyways, the farmer will still need the cow to knock out a calf every year to get her back in calf, short gestation beef breeds like AA/HE will saturate the market, and probably become the new fr/JE bull calves and be a fairly worthless byproduct, if the demand is there the beef lads/live exports will take them, if not, its the bobby truck.

tomwaterford

Timmaay wrote: »

No, simple as is heifers are too bloody expensive to knock out ad hoc, only to realize when they are calved down that you'll only get a grand or less for them. I think saturation will hit far sooner than 5-7 years to be honest, esp if sexed semen becomes reliable. But anyways, the farmer will still need the cow to knock out a calf every year to get her back in calf, short gestation beef breeds like AA/HE will saturate the market, and probably become the new fr/JE bull calves and be a fairly worthless byproduct, if the demand is there the beef lads/live exports will take them, if not, its the bobby truck.

I was allowing 5-7 years to allow for lads starting from zero etc

they are very expensive.no doubting that:)

what I was meaning to say was when the expansion phase is over...say take a lad who is contracting out rearing 30 a year to drive up numbers...when they get to max stocking rate...will they cut the numbers contracted reared then to say 15-20 to just maintain numbers!!

as for staturateing the market...there is no doubt it will/should kill most of the poor to middling suckler cows....though maybe the suckler cattle killing out top grades will survive...I just don't know enough about it-just an interested observer

TEAT SQUEEZER

as a general comment i`d say its a fine line between what makes it worth the rearer`s time to contract rear and what its worth to the dairy guy\gal... many farms are fragmented and therefore have ground that cows will never walk too making them only suitable for silage and heifer rearing... its accepted at this stage that s rates of 3\ha create the need for outside forage sources... the weanling and in calf heifer have max demand in the late summer \autumn period giving the farmer the option to take silage earlier in the year and be more self sufficient..... food for thought

djmc

tomwaterford wrote: »

will the numbers of heifiers to be contract reared fall massively in say 5 -7 years when most of lads who have expanded begin to get to their magic number/max possible stocking rate and then they will be only rear replacements in what will be a flooded market/low price paid as a result

admitely most farmers would probily be willing to pay a little over the odds if they using the same contract rearer with years!!

I think there will be a market for it as when they reach the max cows that their farm will take they will need land for their replacement heifers and will have to either contract rear rent more land or cut back in numbers
There will always be cull cows and need to replace them the only worries is world over supply of milk price collapse and a lot of new dairy farmers who thought it was easy money could be shutting up shop.
That might never happen but if my time working with pigs in an open market has thought me anything is that prices change a lot from one year to the next.