April 2014 Boards forecast contest

Rikand

Surely a new max today ? t'was a scorcher out there!

pauldry

nope i say that shannon figure will be hard bet

will have to wait for may sometime to get to 20c .. hopefully

omicron

Min of -1.1 in Dublin Airport on the 18th.

M.T. Cranium

I have noticed -1 at Mountdillon this morning at both 05h and 06h. Several others at zero. We may get a slight drop from that -1.1 reading.

Rikand

pauldry wrote: »

nope i say that shannon figure will be hard bet

will have to wait for may sometime to get to 20c .. hopefully

pity, I'm absolutely burnt to a crisp after the last two days

John mac

over 10 hours of sunshine in Mayo so far today !

looking like a full quota here for the day ( I know I doesn't count but nice to see.)

Jpmarn

Met Eireann has not yet posted the sunshine hours for Dublin airport to answer our bonus question. For a bit of guidance Casement in west Dublin posted 3.2 hours. Some more western and southern parts of the country got over 12 hours.

omicron

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I have noticed -1 at Mountdillon this morning at both 05h and 06h. Several others at zero. We may get a slight drop from that -1.1 reading.

-0.5 in Mount Dillon and -0.6 in Ballyhaise, not enough to beat Dublin's -1.1, which looking at the forecast will prob be the final value for the month.

M.T. Cranium

Check Sunday's daily data for Mount Dillon, -1.4 C. Not expecting much either for Dublin (A) sunshine when it's reported, maybe 2-3 hours. Seems that everyone was right for some location in Ireland anyway.

Today's max could shift that value too.

pauldry

dunno about the sunshine hours exactly for Dublin airport but on Easter Sunday the sunrise was around 615am then it was mostly sunny until nearly 9am when the cloud bubbled up fairly readily. By 10 am it was overcast and then for the rest of the day there was very little sunshine and even some light rain in the evening so Id say 3 hours around for the sunshine total

Bsal

Maybe we can use the data from Casement for the 20th if no Dublin data appears. Casement recorded 3.2hrs.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT has edged up to 9.6 after a week at 9.7 C.

PRC is down to 64% after another dry week at only 16% -- this makes for a dry fortnight with 17% of normal rainfall.

SUN has overcome its deficit at about 101% now, after a week around 136%.

From the models, would expect finishing values about like this:

IMT 9.5
PRC could reach almost 100%, certainly 90% within reach
SUN may fall back to 90-95.

Bsal looks to be a favourite to win this month (other than the unavoidable C.S.) although if these figures are right and the extremes hold, few will break 60. Con Sensus would score 70.

M.T. Cranium

Bsal wrote: »

Maybe we can use the data from Casement for the 20th if no Dublin data appears. Casement recorded 3.2hrs.

Will do, but it probably will appear in the daily data section before too long.

Joe Public

I see 5.7 hours sunshine is now down for Dublin Airport on Sunday 20th

M.T. Cranium

Confirming the bonus answer was 5.7 hours, top points to those at 6 hours (kindredspirit, rameire, lostinashford, mickger844posts and Con Sensus). After that, points go down like this, 9 points for 5 hours, 8 points for 7, 7 points for 4, 6 points for 8 hours, 5 points for 3 hours, 4 points for 9 hours, 3 points for 2 hours, 2 points for those at 10 and 1 point for those at 11 or 1 hour. At the moment, based on estimated scores, Jpmarn has 73 points (including 5 pt penalty), Bsal has 70 points and Con Sensus has 73. Lostinashford has perhaps 76 but with a 20 point penalty. I don't see anyone else ahead of Con unless it rains a deluge over the weekend and we get more sunshine than seems likely, or those extremes somehow change.

Just thinking about the May contest bonus question now, any big events on the second weekend (10th-11th) that we could use as our backdrop for this? I hope to post this on Friday evening or Saturday at the latest.

Joe Public

May event:-

On Sunday 11th May the 3rd stage of Giro d'Italia ( cycling event ) is between Armagh and Dublin and then off to Italy - by plane
http://www.girostart2014.com/

pauldry

its currently 20c on 1500 report in newport at "furnace" aptly

pauldry

Its 20.6c in back yard in Sligo does that count????

M.T. Cranium

More or less, with 20.4 C reported from Newport yesterday.

Updates after four weeks ...

IMT at 9.8 C

MAX 20.4, MIN -1.4

PRC at 77% for the month, after a somewhat wet week (south at least) with 116% on average.

SUN has remained above normal, edging up to 103% ...

M.T. Cranium

Final values for May are now in ...

IMT finished at 10.0 (9.96 to be exact).

MAX confirmed 20.4 at Newport on 28th

MIN confirmed --1.4 at Mountdillon on 20th

PRC (rainfall) was 81% of normal

SUN was 105% of normal

Dublin (A) had 5.7 hrs sunshine on 20th

Scoring to follow ...

Tae laidir

Our Con-Man will be very difficult to beat, again.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for April 2014 contest


Forecaster _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ hrs sun (20th Dub A)

Actual values ___________ 10.0 _20.4 _--1.4 _081 _105 ____5.7


Con Sensus ____________ 15 __ 18 __ 19 __ 12 __ 09 __ 10 _____ 83

DOCARCH _____________ 16 __ 18 __ 16 __ 11 __ 09 ___ 9 _____ 79
rikand ________________ 17 __ 16 __ 19 __ 15 __ 05 ___ 6 _____ 78
jd ___________________ 16 __ 20 __ 12 __ 12 __ 09 ___ 6 _____ 75
Harps ________________ 09 __ 19 __ 17 __ 15 __ 09 ___ 5 _____ 74
nilhg _________________ 14 __ 12 __ 18 __ 10 __ 10 ___ 8 _____ 72
Jpmarn ____ (-5) _______ 17 __ 11 __ 19 __ 14 __ 07 ___ 9 _ 77-5=72

Pauldry _______________ 23 __ 06 __ 16 __ 13 __ 03 ___ 8 _____ 69
kindredspirit ___________ 11 __ 06 __ 18 __ 15 __ 08 ___10 ____ 68
omicron ______________ 15 __ 16 __ 16 __ 05 __ 09 ___ 7 _____ 68
talkabout______________ 17 __ 15 __ 13 __ 05 __ 09 ___ 7 _____ 66
mickger844posts _______ 16 __ 17 __ 00 __ 12 __ 09 ___10 _____ 64
Tae laidir______________ 17 __ 12 __ 00 __ 15 __ 10 ___ 9 _____ 63
dacogawa _____________ 13 __ 00 __ 20 __ 14 __ 08 ___ 6 _____ 61
Bsal _________________ 19 __ 00 __ 13 __ 13 __ 08 ___ 7 _____ 60

M.T. Cranium __________ 15 __ 04 __ 14 __ 09 __ 10 ___ 4 _____ 56
dexter647 _____________24 __ 02 __ 00 __ 10 __ 10 ___ 9 _____ 55
traecy.1 ______________ 10 __ 18 __ 00 __ 12 __ 09 ___ 5 _____ 54
200 motels ____________ 08 __ 04 __ 16 __ 13 __ 06 ___ 4 _____ 51
John mac _____________ 06 __ 13 __ 13 __ 07 __ 09 ___ 2 _____ 50

okla__________________ 11 __ 00 __ 11 __ 15 __ 09 ___ 3 _____ 49
rameire___ (-5) ________ 14 __ 08 __ 00 __ 13 __ 09 ___10 _ 54-5=49
danno ________________ 12 __ 00 __ 17 __ 02 __ 08 ___ 8 _____ 47
homolumo __ (-10) _____ 11 __ 00 __ 17 __ 12 __ 09 ___ 7 _ 56-10=46
lostinashford ___ (-20) __ 23 __ 00 __ 16 __ 08 __ 08 ___10 _ 65-20=45
Joe Public _____________ 24 __ 00 __ 00 __ 12 __ 05 ___ 3 _____ 44
dasa 29_______________ 07 __ 04 __ 14 __ 02 __ 07 ___ 6 _____ 40
waterways ____ (-5) ____ 13 __ 00 __ 14 __ 12 __ 05 ___ 1 _45-5=40

seafields ______________ 15 __ 00 __ 00 __ 09 __ 07 ___ 2 _____ 33
robxxx7 _____ (-15) _____16 __ 00 __ 00 __ 14 __ 07 ___ 9 ____ 46-15=31

delw _____ (-5) ________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 05 __ 08 ___ 8 _ 21-5=16

__________________________________________

Congrats to DOCARCH, rikand and jd for leading the April contest, in the human division ... our group efforts are to be commended and Con Sensus leads the way.

Annual scoring update fairly soon, I hope.

M.T. Cranium

Updated Annual 2014 Scores

Rank _ Forecaster ____ J ___ F ___ M __ A ___ TOTAL

01 _ Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 __ 310

01 _ rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 __ 295
02 _ omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 __ 289
03 _ Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 __ 282
04 _ harps __________57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 __ 265
05 _ kindredspirit ____ 67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 __ 253
06 _ traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 __ 250
06 _ pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 __ 250
08 _ jd _____________60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 __ 248
09 _ waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 __ 244
10 _ mickger844posts_ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 __ 242
11 _ M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 __ 239
11 _ DOCARCH ______54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 __ 239
13 _ jpmarn ________ 61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 __ 238
14 _ nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 __ 236
15 _ 200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 __ 234
16 _ dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 __ 232
16 _ Tae laidir _______46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 __ 232
18 _ John mac _______67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 __ 231
19 _ rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 __ 226
20 _ dasa 29 ________61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 __ 220
21 _ Danno _________54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 __ 214
22 _ Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 __ 212
23 _ talkabout ______ 59 _ -- _ 73 _ 66 ___ 198
24 _ lostinashford_____-- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 ___175
25 _ okla ___________59 _ -- _ 61 _ 49 ___ 169
26 _ homolumo ______58 _ 59 _ -- _ 46 ___163
27 _ delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 ___129
28 _ seafields _______ 40 _ -- _ 50 _ 33 ___123
29 _ melanoma ______39 _ 65 _ -- _ -- ___ 104
30 _ Robxxx7 _______ -- _ -- _ 72 _ 31 ____103
31 _ downwesht _____ -- _ -- _ 64 _ -- ____ 64
32 _ dexter647 ______ -- _ -- _ -- _ 55 ____ 55
33 _ yoghurt87 ______ -- _ -- _ 53 _ -- ____ 53
34 _ octo ___________47 _ -- _ -- _ -- ____ 47
35 _ rebelcork _______ -- _ -- _ 46 _ -- ____ 46
36 _ aimsir _________ -- _ -- _ 28 _ -- ____ 28
________________________________________________________________

Our new leader (besides Con Sensus) is rikand, but it remains quite close at the top with a large chase pack just behind the top three.

Rikand

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Updated Annual 2014 Scores

Rank _ Forecaster ____ J ___ F ___ M __ A ___ TOTAL

01 _ Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 __ 310

01 _ rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 __ 295


Our new leader (besides Con Sensus) is rikand, but it remains quite close at the top with a large chase pack just behind the top three.

Screenshotted!