April 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 8.6 C for the 30-yr period 1981 to 2010 (it was 8.0 C for 1961-90 and 8.2 for 1971-2000).

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus -- Predict the number of sunshine hours on Easter Sunday (20th April) at Dublin A. Range is 0.0 to 14.0 ... the form may not tell you this if you go there before my helper gets my urgent plea, just post your number in a bonus question column and you'll be fine.


Deadlines for entry ... you have until the end of the day on Tuesday 1st of April, to enter without penalty. The actual deadline is set at 0300h on Wednesday 2nd of April. After that, it's five point penalties for each half-day late, 0300 to 1500 and 1500 to 0300h used to determine half days.

You can enter by using this form which has been kindly supplied and updated by he who was once Sponge Bob. I will check the thread for any old-fashioned entries too.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

Thanks, have fun, welcome if you're new, bah humbug if you're Con Sensus. Ya big cheater. Looking at everyone else's work. Why I tells ya ...

Bsal

Done.

Rikand

Done

omicron

Done

Tae laidir

Done

Harps

Done

dasa29

Done

Danno

Done

DOCARCH

Done

talkabout

Done

SeaFields

done

mickger844posts

done

Joe Public

Done

okla

Done

nilhg

Done

traecy1

Done.

M.T. Cranium

Just got back from my trip and submitted a forecast which is based on a very dazed look at the models.

dacogawa

Done! hope the trip went well

Jpmarn

Done

rameire

done

dexter647

Done

delw

Late but done

waterways

Also late

homolumo

done

lostinashford

Done, late again....

M.T. Cranium

Table of entries for April, 2014 contest


Forecaster _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ hrs sun (20th Dub A)

robxxx7 _____ (-15) _____10.9 _ 18.3 _ +2.8 _ 085 _ 089 ___ 5 _____
Pauldry _______________ 10.2 _ 21.8 _ --1.0 _ 076 _ 140 ___ 7 _____
dexter647 _____________ 10.1 _ 22.2 _ +1.1 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 5 _____
Joe Public ______________ 9.9 _ 24.9 _ --3.9 _ 089 _ 129 ___ 2 _____
lostinashford ___ (-20) ___ 9.8 _ 17.1 _ --1.8 _ 103 _ 096 ___ 6 _____
Bsal __________________ 9.4 _ 17.1 _ --2.1 _ 088 _ 116 ___ 4 _____
Tae laidir_______________ 9.2 _ 21.2 _ +1.6 _ 082 _ 105 ___ 5 _____
rikand _________________ 9.2 _ 20.0 _ --1.5 _ 080 _ 130 ___ 8 _____
talkabout_______________ 9.2 _ 19.9 _ --2.1 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 4 _____
Jpmarn ____ (-5) ________ 9.2 _ 19.5 _ --1.5 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 5 _____
jd ____________________ 9.1 _ 20.4 _ --2.2 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 8 _____
DOCARCH ______________ 9.1 _ 20.2 _ --1.8 _ 092 _ 108 ___ 5 _____
mickger844posts ________ 9.1 _ 20.1 _ +2.1 _ 089 _ 112 ___ 6 _____
M.T. Cranium ___________ 9.0 _ 22.0 _ --2.0 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 9 _____
omicron _______________ 9.0 _ 20.0 _ --1.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 4 _____

Con Sensus ____________ 9.0 _ 20.2 _ --1.5 _ 089 _ 110 ___ 6 ______

seafields ______________ 9.0 _ 17.5 _ --4.2 _ 100 _ 120 ___ 10 _____
nilhg __________________ 8.9 _ 21.2 _ --1.6 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 7 _____
rameire___ (-5) _________ 8.9 _ 19.2 _ +1.5 _ 087 _ 102 ___ 6 _____
dacogawa ______________ 8.8 _ 23.2 _ --1.4 _ 085 _ 114 ___ 8 _____
waterways ____ (-5) _____ 8.8 _ 23.0 _ --2.0 _ 090 _ 130 ___ 11 _____
danno _________________ 8.7 _ 17.3 _ --1.7 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 7 _____
kindredspirit ____________ 8.6 _ 19.0 _ --1.2 _ 082 _ 114 ___ 6 _____
okla___________________ 8.6 _ 18.2 _ --0.5 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 2 _____
homolumo __ (-10) ______ 8.6 _ 16.1 _ --1.1 _ 089 _ 101 ___ 4 _____
traecy.1 _______________ 8.5 _ 20.2 _ +1.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 3 _____
Harps _________________ 8.4 _ 20.5 _ --1.1 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 3 _____
200 motels _____________ 8.3 _ 18.8 _ --1.0 _ 087 _ 123 ___ 9 _____
dasa 29________________ 8.2 _ 22.0 _ --2.0 _ 120 _ 120 ___ 8 _____
John mac ______________ 8.1 _ 21.1 _ --2.1 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 1 _____
delw _____ (-5) _________ 7.3 _ 16.0 _ +3.0 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 7 _____

__________________________________________

The general consensus then is for a rather dry and sunny month with near average temperatures.

M.T. Cranium

After the first seven days ...

IMT at 10.3

PRC at 157%

SUN at 86%

haven't noticed any real extremes, last night will produce some mins near 1 C (will check the stations tomorrow).

M.T. Cranium

--0.3 C the minimum on Friday 11th at Mullingar.

M.T. Cranium

after 14 days ...

IMT now at 9.5 C after a week of more normal readings (8.8)

PRC down to 88% after a dry week (18%)

SUN remains at 86% unchanged from first week.

M.T. Cranium

New MIN of --0.8 C reported from Mountdillon on Tuesday morning 15th.

Yet on the same date a MAX of 17.3 at Newport may be the highest reading of the month.

Jpmarn

Shannon Airport reported a high of 18.6c yesterday.

Rikand

Surely a new max today ? t'was a scorcher out there!

pauldry

nope i say that shannon figure will be hard bet

will have to wait for may sometime to get to 20c .. hopefully

omicron

Min of -1.1 in Dublin Airport on the 18th.

M.T. Cranium

I have noticed -1 at Mountdillon this morning at both 05h and 06h. Several others at zero. We may get a slight drop from that -1.1 reading.

Rikand

pauldry wrote: »

nope i say that shannon figure will be hard bet

will have to wait for may sometime to get to 20c .. hopefully

pity, I'm absolutely burnt to a crisp after the last two days

John mac

over 10 hours of sunshine in Mayo so far today !

looking like a full quota here for the day ( I know I doesn't count but nice to see.)

Jpmarn

Met Eireann has not yet posted the sunshine hours for Dublin airport to answer our bonus question. For a bit of guidance Casement in west Dublin posted 3.2 hours. Some more western and southern parts of the country got over 12 hours.

omicron

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I have noticed -1 at Mountdillon this morning at both 05h and 06h. Several others at zero. We may get a slight drop from that -1.1 reading.

-0.5 in Mount Dillon and -0.6 in Ballyhaise, not enough to beat Dublin's -1.1, which looking at the forecast will prob be the final value for the month.

M.T. Cranium

Check Sunday's daily data for Mount Dillon, -1.4 C. Not expecting much either for Dublin (A) sunshine when it's reported, maybe 2-3 hours. Seems that everyone was right for some location in Ireland anyway.

Today's max could shift that value too.

pauldry

dunno about the sunshine hours exactly for Dublin airport but on Easter Sunday the sunrise was around 615am then it was mostly sunny until nearly 9am when the cloud bubbled up fairly readily. By 10 am it was overcast and then for the rest of the day there was very little sunshine and even some light rain in the evening so Id say 3 hours around for the sunshine total

Bsal

Maybe we can use the data from Casement for the 20th if no Dublin data appears. Casement recorded 3.2hrs.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT has edged up to 9.6 after a week at 9.7 C.

PRC is down to 64% after another dry week at only 16% -- this makes for a dry fortnight with 17% of normal rainfall.

SUN has overcome its deficit at about 101% now, after a week around 136%.

From the models, would expect finishing values about like this:

IMT 9.5
PRC could reach almost 100%, certainly 90% within reach
SUN may fall back to 90-95.

Bsal looks to be a favourite to win this month (other than the unavoidable C.S.) although if these figures are right and the extremes hold, few will break 60. Con Sensus would score 70.

M.T. Cranium

Bsal wrote: »

Maybe we can use the data from Casement for the 20th if no Dublin data appears. Casement recorded 3.2hrs.

Will do, but it probably will appear in the daily data section before too long.

Joe Public

I see 5.7 hours sunshine is now down for Dublin Airport on Sunday 20th

M.T. Cranium

Confirming the bonus answer was 5.7 hours, top points to those at 6 hours (kindredspirit, rameire, lostinashford, mickger844posts and Con Sensus). After that, points go down like this, 9 points for 5 hours, 8 points for 7, 7 points for 4, 6 points for 8 hours, 5 points for 3 hours, 4 points for 9 hours, 3 points for 2 hours, 2 points for those at 10 and 1 point for those at 11 or 1 hour. At the moment, based on estimated scores, Jpmarn has 73 points (including 5 pt penalty), Bsal has 70 points and Con Sensus has 73. Lostinashford has perhaps 76 but with a 20 point penalty. I don't see anyone else ahead of Con unless it rains a deluge over the weekend and we get more sunshine than seems likely, or those extremes somehow change.

Just thinking about the May contest bonus question now, any big events on the second weekend (10th-11th) that we could use as our backdrop for this? I hope to post this on Friday evening or Saturday at the latest.

Joe Public

May event:-

On Sunday 11th May the 3rd stage of Giro d'Italia ( cycling event ) is between Armagh and Dublin and then off to Italy - by plane
http://www.girostart2014.com/

pauldry

its currently 20c on 1500 report in newport at "furnace" aptly

pauldry

Its 20.6c in back yard in Sligo does that count????

M.T. Cranium

More or less, with 20.4 C reported from Newport yesterday.

Updates after four weeks ...

IMT at 9.8 C

MAX 20.4, MIN -1.4

PRC at 77% for the month, after a somewhat wet week (south at least) with 116% on average.

SUN has remained above normal, edging up to 103% ...

M.T. Cranium

Final values for May are now in ...

IMT finished at 10.0 (9.96 to be exact).

MAX confirmed 20.4 at Newport on 28th

MIN confirmed --1.4 at Mountdillon on 20th

PRC (rainfall) was 81% of normal

SUN was 105% of normal

Dublin (A) had 5.7 hrs sunshine on 20th

Scoring to follow ...