April 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 8.6 C for the 30-yr period 1981 to 2010 (it was 8.0 C for 1961-90 and 8.2 for 1971-2000).

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus -- Predict the number of sunshine hours on Easter Sunday (20th April) at Dublin A. Range is 0.0 to 14.0 ... the form may not tell you this if you go there before my helper gets my urgent plea, just post your number in a bonus question column and you'll be fine.


Deadlines for entry ... you have until the end of the day on Tuesday 1st of April, to enter without penalty. The actual deadline is set at 0300h on Wednesday 2nd of April. After that, it's five point penalties for each half-day late, 0300 to 1500 and 1500 to 0300h used to determine half days.

You can enter by using this form which has been kindly supplied and updated by he who was once Sponge Bob. I will check the thread for any old-fashioned entries too.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

Thanks, have fun, welcome if you're new, bah humbug if you're Con Sensus. Ya big cheater. Looking at everyone else's work. Why I tells ya ...

Bsal

Done.

Rikand

Done

omicron

Done

Tae laidir

Done

Harps

Done

dasa29

Done

Danno

Done

DOCARCH

Done

talkabout

Done

SeaFields

done

mickger844posts

done

Joe Public

Done

okla

Done

nilhg

Done

traecy1

Done.

M.T. Cranium

Just got back from my trip and submitted a forecast which is based on a very dazed look at the models.

dacogawa

Done! hope the trip went well

Jpmarn

Done

rameire

done

dexter647

Done

delw

Late but done

waterways

Also late

homolumo

done

lostinashford

Done, late again....

M.T. Cranium

Table of entries for April, 2014 contest


Forecaster _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ hrs sun (20th Dub A)

robxxx7 _____ (-15) _____10.9 _ 18.3 _ +2.8 _ 085 _ 089 ___ 5 _____
Pauldry _______________ 10.2 _ 21.8 _ --1.0 _ 076 _ 140 ___ 7 _____
dexter647 _____________ 10.1 _ 22.2 _ +1.1 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 5 _____
Joe Public ______________ 9.9 _ 24.9 _ --3.9 _ 089 _ 129 ___ 2 _____
lostinashford ___ (-20) ___ 9.8 _ 17.1 _ --1.8 _ 103 _ 096 ___ 6 _____
Bsal __________________ 9.4 _ 17.1 _ --2.1 _ 088 _ 116 ___ 4 _____
Tae laidir_______________ 9.2 _ 21.2 _ +1.6 _ 082 _ 105 ___ 5 _____
rikand _________________ 9.2 _ 20.0 _ --1.5 _ 080 _ 130 ___ 8 _____
talkabout_______________ 9.2 _ 19.9 _ --2.1 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 4 _____
Jpmarn ____ (-5) ________ 9.2 _ 19.5 _ --1.5 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 5 _____
jd ____________________ 9.1 _ 20.4 _ --2.2 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 8 _____
DOCARCH ______________ 9.1 _ 20.2 _ --1.8 _ 092 _ 108 ___ 5 _____
mickger844posts ________ 9.1 _ 20.1 _ +2.1 _ 089 _ 112 ___ 6 _____
M.T. Cranium ___________ 9.0 _ 22.0 _ --2.0 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 9 _____
omicron _______________ 9.0 _ 20.0 _ --1.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 4 _____

Con Sensus ____________ 9.0 _ 20.2 _ --1.5 _ 089 _ 110 ___ 6 ______

seafields ______________ 9.0 _ 17.5 _ --4.2 _ 100 _ 120 ___ 10 _____
nilhg __________________ 8.9 _ 21.2 _ --1.6 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 7 _____
rameire___ (-5) _________ 8.9 _ 19.2 _ +1.5 _ 087 _ 102 ___ 6 _____
dacogawa ______________ 8.8 _ 23.2 _ --1.4 _ 085 _ 114 ___ 8 _____
waterways ____ (-5) _____ 8.8 _ 23.0 _ --2.0 _ 090 _ 130 ___ 11 _____
danno _________________ 8.7 _ 17.3 _ --1.7 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 7 _____
kindredspirit ____________ 8.6 _ 19.0 _ --1.2 _ 082 _ 114 ___ 6 _____
okla___________________ 8.6 _ 18.2 _ --0.5 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 2 _____
homolumo __ (-10) ______ 8.6 _ 16.1 _ --1.1 _ 089 _ 101 ___ 4 _____
traecy.1 _______________ 8.5 _ 20.2 _ +1.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 3 _____
Harps _________________ 8.4 _ 20.5 _ --1.1 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 3 _____
200 motels _____________ 8.3 _ 18.8 _ --1.0 _ 087 _ 123 ___ 9 _____
dasa 29________________ 8.2 _ 22.0 _ --2.0 _ 120 _ 120 ___ 8 _____
John mac ______________ 8.1 _ 21.1 _ --2.1 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 1 _____
delw _____ (-5) _________ 7.3 _ 16.0 _ +3.0 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 7 _____

__________________________________________

The general consensus then is for a rather dry and sunny month with near average temperatures.

M.T. Cranium

After the first seven days ...

IMT at 10.3

PRC at 157%

SUN at 86%

haven't noticed any real extremes, last night will produce some mins near 1 C (will check the stations tomorrow).

M.T. Cranium

--0.3 C the minimum on Friday 11th at Mullingar.

M.T. Cranium

after 14 days ...

IMT now at 9.5 C after a week of more normal readings (8.8)

PRC down to 88% after a dry week (18%)

SUN remains at 86% unchanged from first week.

M.T. Cranium

New MIN of --0.8 C reported from Mountdillon on Tuesday morning 15th.

Yet on the same date a MAX of 17.3 at Newport may be the highest reading of the month.

Jpmarn

Shannon Airport reported a high of 18.6c yesterday.