Should we be worried about property bubble re-inflation?

chopper6

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

There is excess housing around but it is not in Dublin. It is along the west coast and Leitrim. these are not much use to anybody wanting to live or work In Dublin.

There's plenty of it in Ashtown,Clongriffen,Tyrellstown,Damastown and Ballymun...that's just off the top of my head.

jmayo

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

There is excess housing around but it is not in Dublin. It is along the west coast and Leitrim. these are not much use to anybody wanting to live or work In Dublin.

Why oh why does everyone single out poor old Leitrim.
Oh and they do have a coast and it is on the west of the island.

I can point you to a completed, or almost completed, vacant estate in Carlow town.
A batch of the houses went for sale a number of years, but there were no takers.
It is not west coast, but actually one of the towns seen as commutter town for Dublin due to motorway and rail links.
There are probably other examples in other towns in midlands and nearer east coast, but people always choose to drag poor old Leitrim into this argument.

miju

golfwallah wrote: »

Finance Minister, Michael Noonan, says fears of a housing bubble are exaggerated:
http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/theres-no-housing-bubble-michael-noonan-wants-prices-to-rise-30168455.html

ive always said FG , LAB wouldn't have reacted or done anything different than FF id they had been in power during the boom.

I think Mr.Noonan has just validated that point for me. Hello dead cat bounce

miju

cream_cracker wrote: »

, it wont happen for another five years at least if not ten

ah good so we ignore it until it goes pop again and we add how many bailout billions to the National Debt?

a property bubble is bad news full stop, its completely different from speculative bubbles in stock markets like technology and so on.

house prices fell what on average 55%. Are you honestly telling me that a 110% rise in house prices to bring things back to where they were is a good thing????

chopper6

The property supplements are making a return in the rags...bad times ahead.

miju

chopper6 wrote: »

The property supplements are making a return in the rags...bad times ahead.

thing is though "this time it's different"

And it will be because Ireland Inc cant afford another popped property bubble

chopper6

miju wrote: »

thing is though "this time it's different"

And it will be because Ireland Inc cant afford another popped property bubble

What we REALLy need is another Eircom-style flotation to hoover up any savings we might have lying around and fleece those too cautious to "invest" in property.

creedp

miju wrote: »

thing is though "this time it's different"

And it will be because Ireland Inc cant afford another popped property bubble

The last bubble happenned because people were led to believe (and actually believed) that there was gold in them there properties and there was an infinite supply of cheap credit being trown around by the banks.

Its infinitely possible that the first part of the equation will repeat itself again but the 2nd part won't. The only people who will drive the bubble part deux are people with their own money and therefore if they lose out in the future the taxpayer will not be in the hock!

miju

creedp wrote: »

The last bubble happenned because people were led to believe (and actually believed) that there was gold in them there properties and there was an infinite supply of cheap credit being trown around by the banks.

Its infinitely possible that the first part of the equation will repeat itself again but the 2nd part won't. The only people who will drive the bubble part deux are people with their own money and therefore if they lose out in the future the taxpayer will not be in the hock!

You genuinely actually believe that?? We've learned our lesson it wont ever happen again :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Your looking at this arseways, it's the people with cash now who usually make their money get out and leads the masses to follow, not the other way around.

ScottSF

There is another piece of the housing concern - how it can hurt job creation.

What about the push to get multi-nationals to create more jobs (in Dublin)? Yes Dublin is gets all the attention, but that is the current reality.

If apartment rents especially go up to bubble levels, the cost of living will be back on par with (or more than) London. Then it will be harder for Silicon Ireland to compete with London for creating hi-tech jobs. While many of the jobs created are filled by Dublin residents, many lead people to move to Dublin from other parts of Ireland as well as bring in new (tax paying and spending) people from across Europe and the Americas. They'll all need someplace to live which already is getting challenging to find I hear.

carpejugulum

This is a supply/demand issue and the sample is small.
Having said that, government intervention is responsible for this problem.

deere_john

miju wrote: »

ah good so we ignore it until it goes pop again and we add how many bailout billions to the National Debt?

a property bubble is bad news full stop, its completely different from speculative bubbles in stock markets like technology and so on.

house prices fell what on average 55%. Are you honestly telling me that a 110% rise in house prices to bring things back to where they were is a good thing????

house prices are going to rise in the next few years , these things are cyclical in nature , economics , goverment policy and human psychology is utterly predictable

creedp

miju wrote: »

You genuinely actually believe that?? We've learned our lesson it wont ever happen again :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Your looking at this arseways, it's the people with cash now who usually make their money get out and leads the masses to follow, not the other way around.

Why do some people feel its necessary to use multiple? :rolleyes::rolleyes: Is is how they can't get their message across any other way?

I didn't say we learned our lesson .. I clearly said that it is likely people will repeat the mistakes of the past. My point is that this time around it will be more difficult for people to take out massive mortgages to pay for over inflated homes or multiple investment properties. I'm wondering what people want to happen to avoid property price increases especially since many of these people decry any Govt intervention in the mighty free market. Bottom line plenty people in this country and abroad have plenty of cash and want to buy property ... why should we want to stop them spending their money on property? Maybe we should give them more tax breaks to invest on financial products instead, particularly as they are rock solid.

MayoSalmon

Why isn't this man in politics?

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2014/04/07/no-country-for-young-buyers

golfwallah

MayoSalmon wrote: »

Why isn't this man in politics?

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2014/04/07/no-country-for-young-buyers

In fairness, David McWilliams provides informative data and a good contribution to the debate on rising property prices in his blog article of 07/04/2014.

As regards why he is not in politics ....... well, I watched some of his performance on Prime Time on 08/04/2014 and was not so impressed. He just wasn't convincing, IMO.

Maybe that's why he isn't in politics and that is not necessarily a bad thing. This is somewhat illustrated by the difference between football punditry and football management. It's a lot easier to comment on the performance of those on the field than to do it yourself and to carry the can if it all goes pear shaped.

But at least our Minister for Finance is promising to do something about relief from Capital Gains Tax on property from next year:
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/noonan-wont-renew-capital-gains-tax-relief-in-budget-2015-30171616.html

It would also help if he and his government colleagues did something about reducing the local authority barriers to new house construction but there is some hope on that front too, according to this Irish Times report:

Speaking in Limerick today, Minister of State with responsibility for housing Jan O’Sullivan said the Government’s construction strategy, due to be published within weeks, will examine the planning process to ensure it is fit for purpose.
She said planning permissions granted during the boom could be reviewed to make sure they were needed.
“We intend to stimulate building where it is required, not where it isn’t required,” she said.
“There is quite a lot of zoned land particularly in the Dublin area and we want to make sure that can be built on,” she added.

Sierra Oscar

I reckon we could see property prices approach the prices that were being offered during the boom over the next few years in certain areas, only to fall back dramatically again when we realize yet again that property prices were vastly overpriced during the height of the Celtic Tiger. We should know that by now, but evidently some people refuse to believe it.

I find it really alarming that Noonan wants property prices to approach Celtic Tiger levels. Yes we know there are a lot of people in negative equity, but over inflating the entire property market yet again will not be of benefit to us in the long run.

miju

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I find it really alarming that Noonan wants property prices to approach Celtic Tiger levels.

I can see some benefit to the tax payer IF NAMA were to be able to sell off their portfolio at a profit / no loss thus actually coming through the FF plan for NAMA in the first place.

Obviously for that to happen the market and Irish people will have to bear higher prices which in the grand scheme of things wont be a bad thing IF its not constant rising prices and a dead cat bounce doesnt happen which seems to be starting to occur.

jmayo

miju wrote: »

I can see some benefit to the tax payer IF NAMA were to be able to sell off their portfolio at a profit / no loss thus actually coming through the FF plan for NAMA in the first place.

I would say there is a fair amount of stuff in NAMA that never will make back even the value that was paid for the loans.
Take the Irish Glass bottle plant as glaring example of this.
And even if they do get what they paid for them, factor in all those professional fees that the pigs with their snouts in the NAMA trough have got to enjoy.
Then the muggins of a taxpayer is always on the hook for the amount of recapitalisation that was necessary to square the loan book value and the written off value that NAMA paid fot it.

Sierra Oscar

miju wrote: »

I can see some benefit to the tax payer IF NAMA were to be able to sell off their portfolio at a profit / no loss thus actually coming through the FF plan for NAMA in the first place.

Obviously for that to happen the market and Irish people will have to bear higher prices which in the grand scheme of things wont be a bad thing IF its not constant rising prices and a dead cat bounce doesnt happen which seems to be starting to occur.

What I can't understand is why the government is rushing to have a fire-sale of the NAMA portfolio. It was setup to make a long term economic return for the state, yet the government want to wrap up its operations by 2016. If they do that then we will not be making the returns we should be making for providing stability for the market back in 2009.

Of course when you think about it, it is clear that the government want to wrap up NAMA for 2016 so that they can head into an election with some nice soundbites that they can apply to PR spin.

The government is placing short term benefits ahead of longer term stability. Its funny, because as someone who can see where FF slipped up in the past I can see that FG / LAB are about to make the exact same mistakes. Wait and see!

Nody

I'd say they also want the firesale now in the hope it might get them some extra cash for buying votes in the election year budget (not that's a new concept after all)...

creedp

Nody wrote: »

I'd say they also want the firesale now in the hope it might get them some extra cash for buying votes in the election year budget (not that's a new concept after all)...

Could it be possible that a firesale now would be very welcome for monied FG supporters enabling them to maximise the benefit from the well publicised boom ahead? This might also help FG to build its 2016 warchest - back scratching galore.

carpejugulum

deere_john wrote: »

economics , goverment policy and human psychology is utterly predictable

:rolleyes:

Frank Lee Midere

David McWilliams article pointed out that rents shouldn't be rising as Ireland's demographics are an inverted pyramid. The number of people needing houses should therefore reduce in the next few generations. So why did rents rise and property prices increase last year.

My feeling is it was due to a law passed in 2013 which effectively banned bedsits and pushed up to 10k people into the rest of the rental market - especially in Dublin - pushing up returns for investors and bringing in cash buyers once off. The law was passed last feb. And house prices increased from the summer with cash being 60% of the summer market. It absolutely wasn't the "demographics" or mediocre economic growth.

That can't continue, it depends on the special circumstances of low transactions, plenty of cash, and no rise in interest rates. Not can prices even start to fall or there's a riot. Cash can sell as fast as it can buy.

AlekSmart

chopper6 wrote: »

There's plenty of it in Ashtown,Clongriffen,Tyrellstown,Damastown and Ballymun...that's just off the top of my head.

Dead right Chopper6,Dublin has plenty of vacant space on it's periphery,as well as throughout it's centre.

However,for some unfathomable reason,it seems that funding Builders to construct more stock is deemed to be a sensible thing...?

And all of this without recourse to a tent at Galway Races.....truly a miracle ?

Farmer Pudsey

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

David McWilliams article pointed out that rents shouldn't be rising as Ireland's demographics are an inverted pyramid. The number of people needing houses should therefore reduce in the next few generations. So why did rents rise and property prices increase last year.

My feeling is it was due to a law passed in 2013 which effectively banned bedsits and pushed up to 10k people into the rest of the rental market - especially in Dublin - pushing up returns for investors and bringing in cash buyers once off. The law was passed last feb. And house prices increased from the summer with cash being 60% of the summer market. It absolutely wasn't the "demographics" or mediocre economic growth.

That can't continue, it depends on the special circumstances of low transactions, plenty of cash, and no rise in interest rates. Not can prices even start to fall or there's a riot. Cash can sell as fast as it can buy.

AlekSmart wrote: »

Dead right Chopper6,Dublin has plenty of vacant space on it's periphery,as well as throughout it's centre.

However,for some unfathomable reason,it seems that funding Builders to construct more stock is deemed to be a sensible thing...?

And all of this without recourse to a tent at Galway Races.....truly a miracle ?

As Bill Clinton said ''It the economy stupid''. I am not trying to be glib. Dublin has been lifting for 18 months now. Yes the abolishment of bedsit may have contributed however we have a situation where we have centralized the economy around Dublin. Ergo we have a rental issue.

carpejugulum

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

David McWilliams article pointed out that rents shouldn't be rising as Ireland's demographics are an inverted pyramid. The number of people needing houses should therefore reduce in the next few generations. So why did rents rise and property prices increase last year.

Because this doesn't apply to Dublin.

chopper6

AlekSmart wrote: »

Dead right Chopper6,Dublin has plenty of vacant space on it's periphery,as well as throughout it's centre.

However,for some unfathomable reason,it seems that funding Builders to construct more stock is deemed to be a sensible thing...?

And all of this without recourse to a tent at Galway Races.....truly a miracle ?

It's a plan to return to mass employment in the construction sector...this will be accompanied by a gradual heating up of the housing market,Property supplements will appear in all major newspapers,banks will tentatively start to loan again,New properties will appear in previously uninhabitable areas,people will buy,prices will increase,more people will buy and so on and so on.

The Govt will collect taxes on Stamp duty and people will see their taxes gradually decrease,encouraging them to vote for whicever party will promise to further increase thier "earnings" meanwhile envelopes are changing hands and corrupt barons of industry are emerging in the construction and property sectors.

Joe Shmoe will be suckered into "releasing equity" in order to "buy to let" and the whole sordid cycle will repeat itself.
If this happens again we will be ruined irrevocably inside a decade.

flutered

my take on some of this is, one of the reasons for the lack of reposessions is that a lot people in the public service are in trouble after the crash, the goverment will not, can not move against their employees, also the reason we have so many cash customers is goverment employees are leaving with their lump sum and nice pensions, they see value in blocks and cement, they do not trust either their exemployers or the banks, i believe this lump sum and nice pension duo are to end in august, time will either prove me either right wrong.

chopper6

flutered wrote: »

my take on some of this is, one of the reasons for the lack of reposessions is that a lot people in the public service are in trouble after the crash, the goverment will not, can not move against their employees, also the reason we have so many cash customers is goverment employees are leaving with their lump sum and nice pensions, they see value in blocks and cement, they do not trust either their exemployers or the banks, i believe this lump sum and nice pension duo are to end in august, time will either prove me either right wrong.

You're wrong.

Having worked in the Public sector for over 20 years i can tell you that almost nobody i've ever heard of speculated in property on a PS wage.

A PS job is considered a job for life but it is NOT considered a way to get rich and knowing this most PS pensioners would be very carefull about potentially blowing their savings/pension on a "get rich quick scheme".

Remember a 65 year old retiring now would know a thing or two about previous recessions and in fairness would have a certain amount of cop on,having worked for decades to secure his pension.

Most of these PS pensioners would be grandparents with thier own children in full time emplyment and probably mortages of thier own.

*They* are the ones who may be dabbling in the property nonsense..absolutely not the pensioner or PS emplyee.

The people *I* know involved in Buy to lets are 40 years of age or younger and got themselves into deep shiit "speculating" on buy to lets whilst levering thier principal residence to do it.

All of them are from the private sector.

flutered

how many credit unions ran by various public sector identies are have a little bother, i did not say that all public sector employees are in trouble, people on my road are retireing in august from the ps, all have made or are about to purchace shortly, folk with a tax free lump sum of 120k and a pension to back it up are in my neck of the woods anyway purchaseing property, not hereabouts, but where it is plentyfull enough