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Ebola virus outbreak
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New measures for monitoring people in the US who have travelled from ebola affected regions have also been announced today. This is a lot better than just screening on arrival.All travelers who arrive in the United States from Ebola-stricken countries will be closely monitored for 21 days by public health officials starting Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Wednesday.
Tom Frieden, director of the CDC, said that anyone arriving from the three countries – Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia – will be actively monitored on a daily basis and will also face new rules about where they can travel within the United States.
"These new measures I'm announcing today will give additional levels of safety so that people who develop symptoms of Ebola are isolated quickly," Frieden told reporters during a news briefing.
He added that about 70 percent of all travelers stay in six states: New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey and Georgia. People will receive a kit when they arrive at the airport that explains what the symptoms are, a guide to telephone numbers, and a thermometer, Frieden said. State and local officials will maintain daily contact with travelers for the entire 21 days.
Frieden said if a traveler returning from West Africa has had no known exposure to Ebola patients, he or she will merely be monitored daily for fever.
“If, however, someone is ill, that’s a very different story,” he said. That would involve the person being isolated and, if necessary, transported by trained medical personnel.
If a person is considered “high risk” due to exposure but doesn’t appear sick, Frieden said he or she would be quarantined for the monitoring period and not allowed to travel on a commercial airline, or on other forms of public transportation such as bus or train.
“The situation will depend on the individual and their level of contact,” Frieden said.0 -
This is a talk given recently by Dr Michael. Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy. It's 20 mins long but I thought it was a good, reasoned approach to the ebola problem. Basically he is saying that lying to people or downplaying things so as not to cause fear, is going to cause more fear than just admitting that they don't know. Talking about these things isn't fear mongering, it's being realistic about the problem.
http://youtu.be/UkMKUa0sxBQ
thats a good talk by Osterholm for anyone who hasnt watched it is worth a watch. this current strain there is something different about it and if the available data is to believed its mutating 200/300% higher than previous outbreaks. as Osterholm points out in his talk we are in uncharted territory. people can choose to ignore that if they like. but its how it is.
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Yesterday we reported that according to Peter Jahrling of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease - one of the top authorities in the world on Ebola - and who is on the front lines fighting Ebola disease in Liberia, there is something different about the current Ebola outbreak in that not only does it spread more easily than it did before, but the viral loads in Ebola patients are much higher than they are used to seeing. "I have a field team in Monrovia. They are running [tests]. They are telling me that viral loads are coming up very quickly and really high, higher than they are used to seeing.... It may be that the virus burns hotter and quicker."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-21/ebola-2014-mutating-fast-seasonal-flu?0 -
An interesting article here about a social media campaign by Liberians living in the US counteracting discrimination. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/22/ebola-liberia-not-virus-stigma
If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)
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We haven't turned a corner.
Those three countries are still experiencing outbreaks beyond anyone's control. The Red Cross guy said it COULD be contained IF. . . In other words it's conditional on many things happening. I have the same confidence it can be contained but only if pragmatic results start happening. Lots of practices and habits have to change. That may or not yet happen. HIV is still rampant in parts of Africa, so too are the myths about it - practices and habits aren't always easy to change. Ebola treatment and containment still has a long long way to go.
I believe there is huge room for optimism outside the 3 badly affected west African countries. They need massive support and that support seems to be mobilising day by day.
The USA contained it after a steep learning curve. The Spanish have contained it.
Nigeria have beaten it in the last few days. The Congo have it contained to one small area and have beaten several ebola outbreaks in the past.
On Oct. 17, WHO declared the outbreak in Senegal officially over, saying the “most important lesson for the world at large is this: an immediate, broad-based, and well-coordinated response can stop the Ebola virus dead in its tracks.”
Greg Rose, a health advisor at the British Red Cross, says that while border controls may have had “a small effect” on the situation in West Africa, a key difference “was that that other countries had been forewarned,” which allowed them to “set up systems to prevent further infections.” Moreover, Tall says that “in neighboring countries like Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal and Mali, the health systems were in a slightly better shape.” In comparison, the three most-affected countries already had overburdened health care infrastructure before the Ebola outbreak. Sierra Leone and Liberia had not yet fully recovered from the damaging effects of long civil wars — Sierra Leone had two doctors per 100,000 people and Liberia had only one, whereas Mali had eight and Côte d’Ivoire had 14. (The U.S. has 242.) With a lack of staff and resources, “Ebola came in and rapidly overwhelmed the health systems”
The most effective way to contain the spread of Ebola is in “proper tracing of the epidemic, containment within communities and caring for those infected,” says Rose, the Red Cross advisor, who believes “this problem is not going to be solved by closing borders.” And though Ebola has not spread quickly beyond Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, it’s clear that neighboring countries in West Africa need to remain vigilant".0 -
thats a good talk by Osterholm for anyone who hasnt watched it is worth a watch. this current strain there is something different about it and if the available data is to believed its mutating 200/300% higher than previous outbreaks. as Osterholm points out in his talk we are in uncharted territory. people can choose to ignore that if they like. but its how it is.
_________________________________________________________________________
Yesterday we reported that according to Peter Jahrling of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease - one of the top authorities in the world on Ebola - and who is on the front lines fighting Ebola disease in Liberia, there is something different about the current Ebola outbreak in that not only does it spread more easily than it did before, but the viral loads in Ebola patients are much higher than they are used to seeing. "I have a field team in Monrovia. They are running [tests]. They are telling me that viral loads are coming up very quickly and really high, higher than they are used to seeing.... It may be that the virus burns hotter and quicker."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-21/ebola-2014-mutating-fast-seasonal-flu?
Towards the end of the video he talks about something that he is now 'allowed' to mention. To paraphrase, last month researchers in Winnipeg infected macaques with this current strain of ebola and were shocked and very worried at what they observed. I have searched but I can't find anything about this study. Maybe I misinterpreted what he said? He mentions Dr Gary Kobinger as being involved but all I can find is his previous research that showed droplet transmission from pigs to monkeys.
The new WHO figures have also been released(Reuters) - At least 4,877 people have died in the world's worst recorded outbreak of Ebola, and at least 9,936 cases of the disease had been recorded as of Oct. 19, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday, but the true toll may be three times as much.
The WHO has said real numbers of cases are believed to be much higher than reported: by a factor of 1.5 in Guinea, 2 in Sierra Leone and 2.5 in Liberia, while the death rate is thought to be about 70 percent of all cases. That would suggest a toll of almost 15,000.
Liberia has been worst hit, with 4,665 recorded cases and 2,705 deaths, followed by Sierra Leone with 3,706 cases and 1,259 deaths. Guinea, where the outbreak originated, has had 1,540 cases and 904 deaths.
www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/us-health-ebola-who-idUSKCN0IB232201410220 -
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Creative Juices wrote: »I believe there is huge room for optimism outside the 3 badly affected west African countries. They need massive support and that support seems to be mobilising day by day.
The USA contained it after a steep learning curve. The Spanish have contained it.
Nigeria have beaten it in the last few days. The Congo have it contained to one small area and have beaten several ebola outbreaks in the past.
On Oct. 17, WHO declared the outbreak in Senegal officially over, saying the “most important lesson for the world at large is this: an immediate, broad-based, and well-coordinated response can stop the Ebola virus dead in its tracks.”
Greg Rose, a health advisor at the British Red Cross, says that while border controls may have had “a small effect” on the situation in West Africa, a key difference “was that that other countries had been forewarned,” which allowed them to “set up systems to prevent further infections.” Moreover, Tall says that “in neighboring countries like Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal and Mali, the health systems were in a slightly better shape.” In comparison, the three most-affected countries already had overburdened health care infrastructure before the Ebola outbreak. Sierra Leone and Liberia had not yet fully recovered from the damaging effects of long civil wars — Sierra Leone had two doctors per 100,000 people and Liberia had only one, whereas Mali had eight and Côte d’Ivoire had 14. (The U.S. has 242.) With a lack of staff and resources, “Ebola came in and rapidly overwhelmed the health systems”
The most effective way to contain the spread of Ebola is in “proper tracing of the epidemic, containment within communities and caring for those infected,” says Rose, the Red Cross advisor, who believes “this problem is not going to be solved by closing borders.” And though Ebola has not spread quickly beyond Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, it’s clear that neighboring countries in West Africa need to remain vigilant".
Well it's still too soon to say how well the outbreak in the US was contained. We are still within the timeframe for people exposed to the 2 nurses to start showing symptoms. And also people who were exposed to Duncan in his final days I think.
In the video I linked above, Dr Osterholm talks about help being sent to Africa in bureaucracy time, whereas ebola works on virus time which we have no hope of matching. In his opinion, a vaccine will be the only way to stop it and by the time that is available it will have become endemic. Most expert opinions I've read are not at all optimistic about the situation in Africa.0 -
Well it's still too soon to say how well the outbreak in the US was contained. We are still within the timeframe for people exposed to the 2 nurses to start showing symptoms. And also people who were exposed to Duncan in his final days I think.
In the video I linked above, Dr Osterholm talks about help being sent to Africa in bureaucracy time, whereas ebola works on virus time which we have no hope of matching. In his opinion, a vaccine will be the only way to stop it and by the time that is available it will have become endemic. Most expert opinions I've read are not at all optimistic about the situation in Africa.
I think you mean West Africa.
And the USA will contain it, they will get the all clear. I am absolutely confident in that...
22 October
Media sources have reported that the photojournalist who contracted Ebola in Liberia has been treated and will be discharged today. He was being treated at Nebraska Medical Center since 6 October.
21 October
The third Ebola patient admitted at Emory University hospital in Atlanta has been discharged. He was under treatment since 9 September. He was working in Sierra Leone when he got infected and was evacuated to the US.
20 October
The 21-day observation period for 48 contacts of the first Ebola case diagnosed in the United States has passed, with no new cases reported. Health care workers at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital who treated the patient until his death on 8 October remain under surveillance.0 -
Amber Vinson is reportedly now free of ebola
http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/Dallas-Nurse-Amber-Vinson-No-Longer-Has-Ebola-Family-280110332.html
That seems very quick, she was only admitted to hospital just over a week ago. All the other patients treated in the US took weeks to be given the all clear. I wonder if she received any experimental drugs.0 -
Personal Protective Equipment during the Black Death 16th Century
Personal Protective Equipment during Ebola Outbreak 21st Century
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thats a good talk by Osterholm for anyone who hasnt watched it is worth a watch. this current strain there is something different about it and if the available data is to believed its mutating 200/300% higher than previous outbreaks. as Osterholm points out in his talk we are in uncharted territory. people can choose to ignore that if they like. but its how it is.
_________________________________________________________________________
Yesterday we reported that according to Peter Jahrling of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease - one of the top authorities in the world on Ebola - and who is on the front lines fighting Ebola disease in Liberia, there is something different about the current Ebola outbreak in that not only does it spread more easily than it did before, but the viral loads in Ebola patients are much higher than they are used to seeing. "I have a field team in Monrovia. They are running [tests]. They are telling me that viral loads are coming up very quickly and really high, higher than they are used to seeing.... It may be that the virus burns hotter and quicker."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-21/ebola-2014-mutating-fast-seasonal-flu?
This is very interesting. If I recall correctly (many years since I read up on this) there are three strains of ebola known about. This could be a fourth.
The more virulent strains pose less risk to society as they tend to kill their hosts too fast to allow the disease to spread fast. Dreadful for the individual, but they get very ill quick and then are less likely to be up and about to spread it to others. The highest risk people are those who tend the ill and the deceased.
Which is what we are seeing. A high "payload" of virus in the host means that care workers are highly vulnerable with minute exposure, sweat, aerosol droplets, etc.
Roll-on a multi-strain safe vaccine, and an effective therapy for those infected.
Maybe Ebola will be the first virus that the world is fully inoculated against?0 -
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Towards the end of the video he talks about something that he is now 'allowed' to mention. To paraphrase, last month researchers in Winnipeg infected macaques with this current strain of ebola and were shocked and very worried at what they observed. I have searched but I can't find anything about this study. Maybe I misinterpreted what he said? He mentions Dr Gary Kobinger as being involved but all I can find is his previous research that showed droplet transmission from pigs to monkeys.
no you didnt misinterpret what he said he did say that alright. I had a look aswell but couldnt find anything either. he probably hasnt published their findings yet and will do in the future they might want to do more tests or research maybe? though Im not sure but he certainly said that it stuck out for me too. came across an interesting article in the lancet trying to predict case rates with regard to air travel. I had to register with them to read the entire report not sure if I just post the link people will be able see it so will post some of it save registering for anyone who might want to read it.
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http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)61828-6/fulltextAssessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak:
Methods
We analysed International Air Transport Association data for worldwide flight schedules between Sept 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2014, and historic traveller flight itinerary data from 2013 to describe expected global population movements via commercial air travel out of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Coupled with Ebola virus surveillance data, we modelled the expected number of internationally exported Ebola virus infections, the potential effect of air travel restrictions, and the efficiency of airport-based traveller screening at international ports of entry and exit. We deemed individuals initiating travel from any domestic or international airport within these three countries to have possible exposure to Ebola virus. We deemed all other travellers to have no significant risk of exposure to Ebola virus.
Findings
Based on epidemic conditions and international flight restrictions to and from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone as of Sept 1, 2014 (reductions in passenger seats by 51% for Liberia, 66% for Guinea, and 85% for Sierra Leone), our model projects 2·8 travellers infected with Ebola virus departing the above three countries via commercial flights, on average, every month. 91 547 (64%) of all air travellers departing Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone had expected destinations in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Screening international travellers departing three airports would enable health assessments of all travellers at highest risk of exposure to Ebola virus infection.
Overview and data sources
We studied patterns of commercial air travel out of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, the three countries with widespread and intense Ebola virus transmission as of Sept 1, 2014,5 which we deemed the most likely sources of exported infections of Ebola virus. For our travel analyses, we used two complementary datasets from the International Air Transport Association, representing the most up-to-date data currently available. The first dataset includes information on future flight schedules (ie, passenger carrying capacity as seats on flights between directly connected airports), which we used to describe all non-stop flights out of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone between September, 2014, and December, 2014. The second dataset includes monthly, passenger-level flight itinerary data from September, 2013, to December, 2013, which we used to describe the expected final destinations of travellers departing Ebola virus affected countries while accounting for all traveller flight connections.
International air travel out of areas affected by Ebola virus
We first quantified the total volume of international commercial air travellers departing every country in the world in 2013, highlighting Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, the four neighbouring countries that share a land border (Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, and Senegal), and Nigeria. To estimate how international air traffic flows to and from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone have changed due to the Ebola epidemic, we calculated the reduction in total aircraft seat capacity based on online media reports of airline flight cancellations and travel restrictions imposed by countries as of Sept 1, 2014.
We then analysed the flight itineraries of all international travellers departing Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone between September, 2013, and December, 2013, and mapped the final destinations of these travellers (ESRI ArcGIS v10), indicating which cities are scheduled to receive non-stop flights between September, 2014, and December, 2014. We deemed individuals initiating travel from any domestic or international airport within these three countries to have possible exposure to Ebola virus. We deemed all other travellers, including those simply transiting through Guinea, Liberia, or Sierra Leone, or originating from Nigeria or Senegal (where at the time of writing no evidence of widespread community-based transmission was reported), to have no significant risk of exposure to Ebola virus. Although no new cases have been reported in Nigeria since early September, because of the potential for new or undetected cases appearing, we separately assessed global air traffic patterns out of Lagos and Port Harcourt, Nigeria (which collectively include 540 812 travellers, 81% of Nigeria's international air traffic volume in 2013).
We then quantified the number of travellers needed to be screened to capture one traveller potentially exposed to Ebola virus (defined as any individual initiating travel from an airport within Guinea, Liberia, or Sierra Leone) and compared the number of cities in which traveller screening would be required to detect all potentially exposed travellers. This analysis included options for screening at: international points of departure from Guinea, Liberia, or Sierra Leone (exit-screening); international points of arrival on non-stop flights arriving from Guinea, Liberia, or Sierra Leone (entry-screening for direct flights); and international points of arrival via connecting flights (ie, airports receiving travellers via multisegment flights originating from these three countries; entry-screening for indirect flights). To estimate the likelihood of an asymptomatic air traveller infected with Ebola virus (in the incubation period) developing detectable symptomatic illness during the course of an international flight, we calculated the median (IQR) and mean (SD) of travel times for all potential travellers exposed to Ebola virus to reach their final destination. We assumed a 1 h layover for domestic flights and a 2 h layover for international flights.
Projections of international Ebola virus spread
To estimate the potential for international spread of Ebola virus out of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone via commercial air travel between September, 2014, and December, 2014, we used the number of active cases (defined as confirmed, probable, or suspected cases within the 21 day period before Sept 21, 2014, as reported by WHO), World Bank 2013 country population estimates, and the monthly number of international outbound air travellers between September, 2013, and December, 2013 (ie, pre-outbreak flows) to calculate expected numbers of Ebola virus exportations (ie, [number of active cases/country population] × monthly number of international outbound air travellers).5 We then estimated the expected time in months for one air traveller infected with Ebola virus to depart the above three countries (ie, 1/expected number of Ebola virus exportations per month). This method assumed flows of international travellers before the outbreak (ie, 2013), a homogeneous distribution, and constant prevalence of Ebola virus infection in the general population, an equal risk of infection between travellers and non-travellers, and no under-reporting of cases of Ebola virus. In view of existing uncertainties, we did sensitivity analyses to explore scenarios of increasing case burden (2×, 5×, 10×), exponential risk in case burden over time,6 and decreasing international air traffic capacity due to flight cancellations, travel restrictions, or changes in travel behaviours (50%, 75% reduction; appendix).
Traveller destinations and Health System Capacity
As a crude surrogate marker for health-care capacity, we examined the World Bank income group (ie, low-income, lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income, or high-income country) of the final destinations of travellers departing Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.7 Destination cities of travellers were aggregated to the country level and also compared with selected national indicators of health-care system capacity from the World Bank (eg, health-care expenditures per head, physicians per 1000 people, hospital beds per 1000 people) to identify countries with high levels of connectivity to Ebola virus affected areas but with constrained health-care resources.7
Results
In 2013, 0·02% (183 485 travellers) of the world's total commercial international air traffic volume (1 105 005 867 individuals) were air travellers departing Guinea, 0·02% (163 274 individuals) were air travellers departing Sierra Leone, and 0·01% (148 101 individuals) were air travellers departing Liberia (figure 1). Countries sharing a land border with Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone also had low volumes of international air traffic, whereas Nigeria accounted for about four times the volume of international air travel from the above three countries combined. Reported flight cancellations and restrictions as of Sept 1, 2014, reduced scheduled commercial air traffic capacity (between Sept 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2014) to and from Liberia by 51%, Guinea by 66%, and Sierra Leone by 85%.
We found that health screening of travellers at risk of exposure would be most efficient if done at international points of departure from countries with community-based transmission of Ebola virus (table 1). Exit screening travellers at airports in three cities (ie, Conakry, Monrovia, and Freetown) would allow for health assessments of all travellers departing Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. By comparison, entry screening the very same travellers as they arrive in other countries via non-stop international flights (ie, entry screening of direct flights) would require intervention in 15 cities across 15 countries. Of the commercial airports in 1238 cities worldwide that do not receive direct flights from Guinea, Liberia, or Sierra Leone, an average of 2512 travellers would have to be screened (or their trip itineraries examined) to identify one traveller originating from one of the above three countries. We also found the median travel times on non-stop flights out of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone to be 2·7 h (IQR 2·0—6·1), making it unlikely that an infected individual who was asymptomatic at exit screening would develop symptoms during their flight; hence the expected incremental usefulness of entry screening in addition to effective exit screening would be very low.
Assuming pre-outbreak and unrestricted travel conditions and no health screening of travellers (and the model assumptions described in the methods' section), we estimated one infected international air traveller would leave Guinea every 2·7 months, Liberia every 0·2 months, and Sierra Leone every 0·6 months (table 2). The appendix shows different scenarios of increasing Ebola virus case burden in the source countries and decreasing air traffic volumes.
When analysed by World Bank income category, 42 825 (29%) travellers coming from these three countries had final destinations in high-income countries, 10 041 (7%) in upper-middle income countries, 70 182 (49%) in lower-middle income countries, and 21 365 (15%) in low-income countries. Figure 2 and the appendix show the final destinations of air travellers departing Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone at the city level, with Accra, Dakar, and London at the top 3. Table 3 shows the most common final destination countries of individuals initiating air travel from within Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, with potential national indicators of health-care capacity. Separately, the appendix shows anticipated final destinations of air travellers departing Lagos and Port Harcourt, Nigeria, with London, Dubai, and Accra at the top 3.
We determined that the volume of international air traffic departing the three countries facing widespread community-based transmission of Ebola virus disease, namely Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, was low relative to other countries. To study the potential for Ebola virus exportation, however, these numbers must be considered in the context of potential travel restrictions, the intensity of Ebola virus activity in affected countries, and the underlying assumptions of our model. As shown in our analysis and witnessed by the imported case of Ebola virus into Nigeria and the USA, the potential for further international spread via air travel remains present. Of additional concern is that the anticipated destinations of more than 60% of travellers departing Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are to low-income or lower-middle income countries, where inadequately resourced medical and public health systems might be unable to detect and adequately manage an imported case of Ebola virus disease, including possible subsequent community spread.8
We determined that the volume of international air traffic departing the three countries facing widespread community-based transmission of Ebola virus disease, namely Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, was low relative to other countries. To study the potential for Ebola virus exportation, however, these numbers must be considered in the context of potential travel restrictions, the intensity of Ebola virus activity in affected countries, and the underlying assumptions of our model. As shown in our analysis and witnessed by the imported case of Ebola virus into Nigeria and the USA, the potential for further international spread via air travel remains present. Of additional concern is that the anticipated destinations of more than 60% of travellers departing Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are to low-income or lower-middle income countries, where inadequately resourced medical and public health systems might be unable to detect and adequately manage an imported case of Ebola virus disease, including possible subsequent community spread.80 -
wildefalcon wrote: »This is very interesting. If I recall correctly (many years since I read up on this) there are three strains of ebola known about. This could be a fourth.
The more virulent strains pose less risk to society as they tend to kill their hosts too fast to allow the disease to spread fast. Dreadful for the individual, but they get very ill quick and then are less likely to be up and about to spread it to others. The highest risk people are those who tend the ill and the deceased.
Which is what we are seeing. A high "payload" of virus in the host means that care workers are highly vulnerable with minute exposure, sweat, aerosol droplets, etc.
Roll-on a multi-strain safe vaccine, and an effective therapy for those infected.
Maybe Ebola will be the first virus that the world is fully inoculated against?
think there is five and this one is the Zaire strain. is it different in some way I dont know it might be if it is then its six. a lot of health care people have died like you say its really virulent viral loads in the billions I honestly dont know much about vaccines is a multi-strain one even possible?..this virus is a mutating machine coupled with it being so virulent if we are talking about vaccines to fight and contain it I dont know how it would work could it be done. we need a new flu vaccine each year and ebola is a whole other level to that sh1t. is it something we can be fully inoculated against Im not sure it is. we need to try contain this where it is and it needs to burn out. and then we hope it doesnt become endemic. if they can come up with a vaccine then great. I really dont like the idea of having to come up with a new ebola vaccine each year. I hope it can be contained where it is.0 -
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/uk-health-ebola-usa-idUKKCN0IB01T20141022(Reuters) - Leading drugmakers plan to work together to speed up the development of an Ebola vaccine and hope to produce millions of doses for use next year.
U.S. firm Johnson & Johnson said on Wednesday that it aims to produce at least 1 million doses of its two-step vaccine next year and has already discussed collaboration with Britain's GlaxoSmithKline, which is working on a rival vaccine.
The economics of an Ebola vaccine are still unclear but drug companies with an eye on their reputations are under pressure to respond to the major international health crisis now ravaging one of the poorest corners of Africa.Liberia, worst-hit by the virus, welcomed the announcement but said any vaccine must be affordable and available in sufficient quantities.
Minister of Information Lewis Brown said: "It is important to remember clinical trials are in their early stages. We should not be complacent. The good news today should spur on further research into a disease that has been ignored for far too long."Although the safety and effectiveness of J&J's and other experimental vaccines has yet to be proven, they have provided good protection against the Zaire strain of Ebola when tested on macaque monkeys, which is seen as a promising sign that they are likely to work in humans.
Like a number of experimental vaccines against various diseases, J&J's vaccine uses a common cold virus, called an adenovirus, to carry its payload.
Immunisation with the J&J vaccine, which was developed by its Crucell unit in the Netherlands, consists of two injections: one to prime the immune system and a second to boost the response. In contrast, researchers are testing a single shot of GSK's vaccine.
I see J&J have joined the fray, those guys always know where there is money to be made. I wouldn't trust them to put humans first though.0 -
Red Pepper wrote: »http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/uk-health-ebola-usa-idUKKCN0IB01T20141022
I see J&J have joined the fray, those guys always know where there is money to be made. I wouldn't trust them to put humans first though.
To be honest I don't care what their motives are as long as it works.
Governments and charities (ultimately, us) should be prepared to foot the bill to get it to the people who need it.0 -
Maximus Alexander wrote: »To be honest I don't care what their motives are as long as it works.
Governments and charities (ultimately, us) should be prepared to foot the bill to get it to the people who need it.
Yes that is what will happen. Governments will cover most of the costs I believe. I just don't trust J&J but that is a personal thing.0 -
I know there have been a lot of false alarms but this one is concerning because the doctor in question actually treated ebola patients and returned from Guinea 10 days ago. Apparently they have already started tracing his contacts.A 33-year-old doctor who just returned from treating Ebola patients in Africa quarantined himself inside a Harlem apartment with a fever — and has now been rushed to Bellevue Hospital, the Daily News has learned.
The drama unfolded shortly before noon on W. 147th St., where FDNY hazardous materials specialists sealed off the apartment as EMS rushed the doctor, clad in an exposure suit, to Bellevue.
He told authorities that he recently got back from Guinea, where he had been treating patients.Dr. Craig Spencer, who returned to New York City from Africa 10 days ago, was rushed in an ambulance with a police escort from his Harlem home to Bellevue Hospital on Thursday, sources said.
He was suffering from Ebola-like symptoms — a 103-degree fever and nausea, sources said.
While he was in Africa, the doctor had been treating Ebola patients in Guinea, sources said.0 -
I know there have been a lot of false alarms but this one is concerning because the doctor in question actually treated ebola patients and returned from Guinea 10 days ago. Apparently they have already started tracing his contacts.
While I feel sorry for the doctor, in the larger scheme of things I don't see cause for concern. From the information you've provided, it's pretty much best case - became symptomatic under self-quarantine and authoraties were informed and equipped to deal with the risk prior to making contact. Now if procedures are found wanting as were in Texas then that would be concerning but I would expect lessons to have been learned by now. Hopefully the doctor is well cared for.0 -
Well at least he had the gumption to quarantine himself I guess!I know there have been a lot of false alarms but this one is concerning because the doctor in question actually treated ebola patients and returned from Guinea 10 days ago. Apparently they have already started tracing his contacts.0 -
While I feel sorry for the doctor, in the larger scheme of things I don't see cause for concern. From the information you've provided, it's pretty much best case - became symptomatic under self-quarantine and authoraties were informed and equipped to deal with the risk prior to making contact. Now if procedures are found wanting as were in Texas then that would be concerning but I would expect lessons to have been learned by now. Hopefully the doctor is well cared for.
Well now they are saying he didn't self quarantine. Supposedly he went bowling yesterday when he had some symptoms. It's only when his fever spiked and he was nauseous that he isolated himself.(CNN) -- A Doctors Without Borders physician who recently returned from West Africa was taken to a New York hospital for isolation and testing for the Ebola virus, a law enforcement official briefed on the matter told CNN.
The 33-year-old physician, employed at Columbia Presbyterian Hospital, developed a fever, nausea, pain and fatigue Wednesday night and was taken to Bellevue Hospital in Manhattan Thursday morning for isolation and testing, the official said.
The unidentified doctor returned from West Africa about 10 days ago, the official said.
Investigators are taking the case seriously because it appears the doctor didn't self-quarantine, the official said.
The official said he was out in public. Authorities are possibly going to quarantine his girlfriend, with whom he was spending time since his return from Africa.
A statement from the New York Health Department said preliminary test results are expected in the next 12 hours.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/23/health/new-york-possible-ebola-case/index.html?hpt=hp_t20 -
Sounds like he may well have ebola but being brutally honest I am glad when the USA gets an ebola patient. Firstly, they have a very good chance of surviving because of the treatment available. Secondly it mobilises a global response led by the might of the USA, albeit largely through irrational panic. Obama going on TV really helped and got the big Pharma very interested in likely federal funding.
Excuse the pun but when America sneezes the whole world gets a cold. We have a situation now where big corporations in America (e.g. GSK, Johnson and Johnson) are leading the charge and that can only be good.0 -
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The first ebola case in Mali has been confirmed. A 2 year old, poor thing
Her father died from ebola in guinea and she was brought back to Mali by his aunt.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29750723
Hopefully it has been caught early enough to be contained.0 -
The doctor in New York has tested positive for ebola.A doctor in New York City who recently returned from treating Ebola patients in Guinea tested positive for the Ebola virus Thursday, becoming the city’s first diagnosed case.
The doctor, Craig Spencer, was rushed to Bellevue Hospital on Thursday and placed in isolation while health care workers spread out across the city to trace anyone he might have come into contact with in recent days. A further test will be conducted by the federal Centers for Disease Control to confirm the initial test.
While officials have said they expected isolated cases of the disease to arrive in New York eventually, and had been preparing for this moment for months, the first case highlighted the challenges surrounding containment of the virus, especially in a crowded metropolis.
Even as the authorities worked to confirm that Mr. Spencer was infected with Ebola, it emerged that he traveled from Manhattan to Brooklyn on the subway on Wednesday night, when he went to a bowling alley and then took a taxi home.
The next morning, he reported having a temperature of 103 degrees, raising questions about his health while he was out in public.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/nyregion/craig-spencer-is-tested-for-ebola-virus-at-bellevue-hospital-in-new-york-city.html?_r=00 -
News conference about to start in NY.0
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JONJO THE MISER wrote: »News conference about to start in NY.
They keep going on about fever. He can't have been contagious because he had no fever, even though he did have other symptoms, starting on Tuesday.
Why are they relying so heavily on body temperature as a diagnosis tool? A study has shown that a significant minority of people with ebola don't ever have a fever and anecdotal evidence from doctors working in West Africa supports this. The temperature of the second nurse in Dallas didn't meet the criteria set out by the CDC as a symptom which is why she was cleared to fly. I wish they would give the proper information instead of trying to reassure people by claiming things as absolutes when they are not at all.
You can have ebola and not have a fever. You can be contagious and not have a fever. Those are facts, just be honest about it.So long as an individual's temperature does not exceed 101.5 degrees and there are no visible symptoms of Ebola, health authorities say it should be assumed the person is not infectious.
Yet the largest study of the current outbreak found that in nearly 13% of "confirmed and probable" cases in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea and elsewhere, those infected did not have fevers.
The study, sponsored by the World Health Organization and published online late last month by the New England Journal of Medicine, analyzed data on 3,343 confirmed and 667 probable cases of Ebola.
The finding that 87.1% of those infected exhibited fever — but 12.9% did not — illustrates the challenges confronting health authorities as they struggle to contain the epidemic.
U.S. health officials have repeatedly emphasized that fever is a reliable sign of infectiousness. As a defense against the spread of the virus to this country, the Obama administration has ordered that passengers arriving from West Africa at five U.S. airports be checked for fever.0 -
I'll start worrying about catching it from strangers on public transport as soon as it's confirmed that anybody has ever caught it from a stranger on public transport.0
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It was reported that he noticed symptoms 2 days before he went bowling. Incredibly irresponsible for a doctor who was only back in the US for a week, and had direct contact with Ebola patients.Well now they are saying he didn't self quarantine. Supposedly he went bowling yesterday when he had some symptoms. It's only when his fever spiked and he was nauseous that he isolated himself.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/23/health/new-york-possible-ebola-case/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
I get what people say about bodily fluids, but the threshold would appear very low, like coughing near an open soda-can. All those little virus-conveying acts we do without noticing0 -
WILL NEVER LOG OFF wrote: »I get what people say about bodily fluids, but the threshold would appear very low, like coughing near an open soda-can. All those little virus-conveying acts we do without noticing
Would ebola survive in coke? I doubt it.0 -
i don't see why not. although the top surface of a can, table-tops and cutlery can also be stages for transmission, for a few hours, at least.Red Pepper wrote: »Would ebola survive in coke? I doubt it.
And it wouldn't be at all obvious or intentional. Sneezes, for example, can send tiny mucus particles well over 100ft.
We shouldn't exaggerate the risk, but i certainly wouldn't want to sit near an ebola victim in a bowling alley or on a subway.0 -
http://www.thejournal.ie/ebola-liberia-deaths-christmas-1742158-Oct2014/NEW RESEARCH HAS shown that, without expanded control efforts, up to 170,996 total reported and unreported Ebola cases, and 90,122 deaths are projected in Montserrado County in Liberia, where there is currently an epidemic, by 15 December this year.
The research, published today in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, found that the number of Ebola treatment centre beds and other measures needed to control the epidemic substantially exceeds the total pledged by the international community to date.
The study estimates that of these cases and deaths, 42,669 cases and 27,175 deaths will have been reported by that time. However, rapid scale-up of control measures starting on 31 October, including 4,800 additional hospital beds, a fivefold increase in the speed with which cases are detected, and allocating protective kits for home care, could prevent as many as 97,940 cases by 15 December.
Further delays in expanding these interventions would greatly limit their effectiveness. For example, if delayed to 15 November, at best just over half as many cases would be averted.
“Our predictions highlight the rapidly closing window of opportunity for controlling the outbreak, and averting a catastrophic toll of new Ebola cases and deaths in the coming months,” warned Alison Galvani, senior author and Professor of Epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, USA.
“While the window of opportunity for timely control of the Ebola outbreak has passed, the risk of catastrophic devastation both in West Africa and beyond has only just begun. While vaccines to prevent Ebola remain unavailable, our study urges a rapid and immediate scaling-up of all currently available non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies to minimize the occurrence of new cases and deaths.”
Abstract of report here:
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancetid/article/PIIS1473-3099(14)70995-8/abstract0 -
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The Doctor in New York went bowling the day before he was admitted to hospital.
I've been bowling a good few times.
When you put your fingers in the holes in the Bowling Ball they always sweat a little each time due to the close contact with the ball and weight of the ball.
Typically I'd use about 5 - 10 different balls during a session, depending on circumstances.
The balls are thrown down the lane, and return, and unless you have your own personal ball, they all are used by other people sharing your lane, and sharing the pair of lanes serviced by the same return mechanism.
After you finish other groups take over and use the same balls.
There is no direct sunlight in Bowling Alleys - nor any UV light I'm aware of.
We know from scientific reports (previously linked on this thread many time) that the virus has been recovered on plastic/metal surfaces not exposed to Sunlight (in ambient humidity - I think I recall 60% - 70% and temperature 20-220 degrees after 15 hours).
The bowling alley visit should be a massive concern to those disease investigators trying to trace the Doctor's possible contacts.0
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