Football ranking table

zombieHanalei

laoisman11 wrote: »

Six more games to look forward to this weekend; could there be a shock in store in this to-date season of normality ? Please

Looking at those games I've a feeling it will be a good weekend for your prediction model! Might even make for a good accumulator??

laoisman11

Boom__Boom wrote: »

The record of teams relegated from Division 1 in the same year's championship has been abysmal, while teams who have gotten promoted from Division 2 generally have a very decent record in the same year's championship.

I've had a bit of time to look at this.......

I've tried to make the comparison between the championship fate of teams relegated from/promoted to the same division (i.e. compare teams relegated from and promoted to Div1, and so on for the other 2 divisions, for the last 4 years). Rather than look at who they played, I've tried to look at it quantitatively in terms of change in rating points. Now, changes in rating points can be very much linked to which teams you get drawn to play against, but I'm hoping that a trend would appear over time....

So this is what the output looks like:


Change in rating points subsequent to promotion/relegation

The red dots are the averages, the black lines the median and all points are plotted.

A cursory look at this would indicate that, for 3 of the 4 years examined, there was little if any difference in the change in rating points following either promotion or relegation. In 2012, the relegated teams appeared to have had much better championship campaigns than the promoted teams.

My take on this is that based on the huge variation in changes in rating points, and the small overall average differences between the promoted and relegated teams, it cannot be said that promoted teams do better than relegated teams. Of course, the fact that I've only looked at 4 years has to be taken into account.

Full data below.........

Year|Rel/Prom|Division 1/2|ΔRating|Division 2/3 |ΔRating|Division 3/4 |ΔRating| Overall average
2014|Rel|Kildare|1,47|Armagh|15,23|Longford|3,5|2,22
||Westmeath|-4,16|Louth|0,96|Offaly|-4,67|
||Average|-2,69||7,14||0,59|
|Prom|Donegal|13,64|Cavan|-10,25|Tipperary|6,52|2,06
||Monaghan|-0,77|Roscommon|1,56|Clare|2,59|
||Average|6,44||-4,35||4,56|
Year|Rel/Prom|Division 1/2|ΔRating|Division 2/3 |ΔRating|Division 3/4 |ΔRating| Overall average
2013|Rel|Donegal|-7,9|Wexford|2,36|Antrim|-1,79|-1,08
||Down|-1,97|Longford|1,56|Wicklow|0,64|
||Average|-4,94||1,96||-0,58|
|Prom|Derry|-3,86|Monaghan|10,91|Limerick|-7,79|-0,40
||Westmeath|-5,45|Meath|3,81|Offaly|0|
||Average|-4,67||7,36||-7,79|
Year|Rel/Prom|Division 1/2|ΔRating|Division 2/3 |ΔRating|Division 3/4 |ΔRating| Overall average
2012|Rel|Laois|4,34|Meath|6,95|Tipperary|8,69|1,85
||Armagh|-6,54|Monaghan|-0,16|Offaly|-2,17|
||Average|-1,10||3,40||3,26|
|Prom|Tyrone|-1,22|Longford|-10,10|Fermanagh|-5,80|-4,32
||Kildare|-2,84|Wexford|-0,14|Wicklow|-5,79|
||Average|-2,03||-5,12||-5,8|
Year|Rel/Prom|Division 1/2|ΔRating|Division 2/3 |ΔRating|Division 3/4 |ΔRating| Overall average
2011|Rel|Monaghan|-8,65|Sligo|-9,16|Limerick|8,04|-1,21
||Galway|-4,76|Antrim|4,63|Waterford|2,65|
||Average|-6,71||-2,27||5,35|
|Prom|Donegal|9,13|Westmeath|-6,55|Roscommon|1,70|-0,59
||Laois|-1,84|Louth|-8,59|Longford|2,59|
||Average|3,65||-7,57||2,15|

laoisman11

I was hoping for some shocks to liven up the championship, but that was not exactly what I had in mind........

• Antrim gain 5.39 rating points and jump 5 places in the rankings following their excellent victory over Laois in O'Moore Park. Laois drop to 25th position, their worst placement since May 1988
• Sligo increase their rating by 4.46 points and climb 6 places; Roscommon fall 3 places and hope for a kind draw in the qualifiers to allow them to re-group
• Offaly's big win over Waterford consign Waterford to the unenviable position of last in the rankings
• Wins for Cavan, Longford and Monaghan over London, Carlow and Fermanagh, respectively, did not result in any rating points exchanged

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Donegal | 101.18 | 0.00
3| steady| Kerry | 99.47 | 0.00
4| steady| Mayo | 98.12 | 0.00
5| steady| Cork | 96.91 | 0.00
6| steady| Monaghan | 96.13 | 0.00
7| steady| Derry | 90.16 | 0.00
8| steady| Meath | 89.27 | 0.00
9| steady| Tyrone | 89.10 | 0.00
10| increase| Armagh | 86.66 | 0.00
11| increase| Kildare | 86.05 | 0.00
12| increase| Galway | 84.54 | 0.00
13| decrease| Roscommon | 82.88 | -4.46
14| steady| Down | 81.77 | 0.00
15| increase| Sligo | 81.48 | 4.46
16| decrease| Tipperary | 81.21 | 0.00
17| decrease| Westmeath | 80.43 | 0.00
18| decrease| Cavan | 79.72 | 0.00
19| decrease| Fermanagh | 79.18 | 0.00
20| decrease| Longford | 77.46 | 0.00
21| increase| Clare | 76.95 | 0.00
22| increase| Antrim | 73.63 | 5.39
23| steady| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| increase| Offaly | 72.04 | 1.70
25| decrease| Laois | 71.80 | -5.39
26| decrease| Wexford | 71.28 | 0.00
27| decrease| Leitrim | 68.75 | 0.00
28| steady| Louth | 66.79 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| increase| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| decrease| Waterford | 56.32 | -1.70

Full explanation of ranking system here.

laoisman11

Three provincial semi-finals and 4 qualifiers on the cards for this weekend - could there be more shocks in store after Antrim and Sligo rocked the boat last weekend ?

Armagh (86.66, at home) vs Wicklow (61.29)
Wicklow won't have fond memories of their 2013 visit to the Athletic Grounds where they lost by 2-21 to 0-02. They battled bravely against Meath in this year's Leinster SFC and should be able to put up a good showing here too. Armagh will have been disappointed with their poor display against Donegal and will see this as the perfect spring-board back into the championship, while knowing that tougher days lie ahead. Armagh by 9

Wexford (71.28, at home) vs Down (81.77)
Even with home advantage, Wexford are going to find it tough to break down a well-drilled Down side. I'm finding it hard to be optimistic of either side's chances in the next rounds of the qualifiers. Down by 4

Louth (66.79, at home) vs Leitrim (68.75)
A great chance for either of these counties to progress a bit further than normal in the qualifiers. Louth had a fairly good outing against Westmeath kicking 16 points, whereas Leitrim were frustrated by Galway's defensive system, only managing 8 points. Louth by 2

Tyrone (89.10, at home) vs Limerick (72.30)
Any chance that Limerick had here went up in smoke when Tyrone got home advantage. Tyrone have been waiting 8 (!) weeks for this game and have surely ironed out some problems and fine-tuned their system of play with a view towards a long run in the qualifiers. Tyrone by 8

Derry (90.16) vs Donegal (101.18)
Derry did just about what was needed to overcome Down whereas Donegal were fairly impressive with 3 and point wins over Tyrone and Armagh, respectively. Given the large difference in rating points (> 10) we could expect Donegal to win easily, but perhaps the prediction model is erring on the side of caution due to Derry's innate unpredictability! Donegal by 1

Meath (89.27) vs Westmeath (80.43)
Meath blew off the cobwebs and gave themselves plenty to think about in their victory over Wicklow. Westmeath, meanwhile, have come through 2 good battles over Louth and Wexford, scoring 3-14 and 1-21. Meath are really going to have to put in the work to restrict Westmeath's possession and feeding of the forwards lines, otherwise the result will be a lot closer than what is predicted. Meath by 5

Dublin (104.31, at home) vs Kildare (86.05)
A huge gulf in rating points (>21 taking home advantage into account) but this game will be tighter than that. Dublin remained in the comfort zone racking up 4-25 against Longford, but Kildare will offer a much stiffer test. The games against Laois (well, the drawn game and the first half of the replay) will really stand to Kildare and even if they concede early, they will keep the head up and battle to the end. Nevertheless, Dublin are favourites and rightly so, although it could be tighter than the bookies predict. Dublin by 8

laoisman11

More shocks this weekend with 3 teams increasing their ratings by more than 4 points !

• Westmeath gain 4.77 rating points and jump 6 places to 11th after their magnificent comeback against Meath, who drop to 15th
• Wexford's fully deserved win gives them 4.5 extra points and they rise 4 places to 22nd; Down, meanwhile, drop 6 places to 20th, their lowest ranking since June 2009
• Louth's bonus point win over Leitrim increases their ratings by 4.19 points and they leapfrog Leitrim to attain 27th position
• Donegal pick up 0.8 rating points after their hard-fought victory over Derry
• The other victors of the weekend (Armagh, Tyrone and Dublin) did not pick up any extra rating points

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Donegal | 101.98 | 0.80
3| steady| Kerry | 99.47 | 0.00
4| steady| Mayo | 98.12 | 0.00
5| steady| Cork | 96.91 | 0.00
6| steady| Monaghan | 96.13 | 0.00
7| steady| Derry | 89.36 | -0.80
8| increase| Tyrone | 89.10 | 0.00
9| increase| Armagh | 86.66 | 0.00
10| increase| Kildare | 86.05 | 0.00
11| increase| Westmeath | 85.20 | 4.77
12| steady| Galway | 84.54 | 0.00
13| decrease| Meath | 84.50 | -4.77
14| decrease| Roscommon | 82.88 | 0.00
15| steady| Sligo | 81.48 | 0.00
16| steady| Tipperary | 81.21 | 0.00
17| increase| Cavan | 79.72 | 0.00
18| increase| Fermanagh | 79.18 | 0.00
19| increase| Longford | 77.46 | 0.00
20| decrease| Down | 77.27 | -4.50
21| steady| Clare | 76.95 | 0.00
22| increase| Wexford | 75.78 | 4.50
23| decrease| Antrim | 73.63 | 0.00
24| decrease| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
25| decrease| Offaly | 72.04 | 0.00
26| decrease| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
27| increase| Louth | 70.98 | 4.19
28| decrease| Leitrim | 64.56 | -4.19
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

laoisman11

Twelve teams will be gone from the championship by Sunday evening and the first provincial champions will be crowned......

Offaly (72.04, at home) v Kildare (86.05)
The perfect recovery program for Kildare after their hugely disappointing performance in Croke Park last weekend, or the perfect stage for Offaly to knock their neighbours our of the championship? There may be a huge gulf in rating points, but the prediction model sees this one as being very close. Kildare by 2

Clare (76.95, at home) v Longford (77.46)
Two teams with little to separate them on rating points and with similar provincial championship results - a good win over a similarly ranked team (Limerick and Offaly, respectively) and then a heavy loss to one of the powerhouses (Cork and Dublin, respectively). Longford have had the chance to get things rolling again with a good victory over what was a poor Carlow side. The prediction model is going with Clare by 1, probably down to having home advantage, but I think Longford may have enough here.

Cavan (79.72) v Roscommon (82.88)
Cavan were probably the last team Roscommon wanted to see coming out of the draw as they have become quite familiar with each other in the league over the last few years. Roscommon taught Cavan a lesson in last year's qualifiers but perhaps Cavan have the greater form here, losing to Monaghan by 1 whereas Roscommon lost out to Sligo. Home advantage for the Breffni men as well. Cavan by 1

Fermanagh (79.18) v Antrim (73.63)
What an unfair reward for Antrim, having dumped Laois of the qualifiers, they get drawn to play the team they lost to in the Ulster SFC. And they have to travel again......Can Antrim's momentum offset Fermanagh's malaise after their 10 point loss to Monaghan ? In any case, the prediction model reckon's that it will be closer than their previous meeting this year. Fermanagh by 3

Kerry (99.47, at home) v Cork (96.91)
Two easy victories in the Munster SFC didn't reveal much for either side who both believe that they will still be around in August/September. Cork did have the better league campaign but Kerry may have been suffering a post-All-Ireland hangover. It is extremely difficult to imagine Kerry allowing Cork to get one over on them in Killarney, and I've the feeling that they could put on a show here. The prediction model is more cautious: Kerry by 2

dofoul

Love this thread - well done.

I completely get the methodology but I find it amusing that Kildare can rise five places from the end of the League with a tanking from Dublin :-)

CrabRevolution

Its presumably down to how few games they play, and hence have no opportunity to drop points, but the fact NY are ranked ahead of Waterford is kind of silly. Waterford would easily beat NY every day of the week, with absolutely no exceptions.

laoisman11

Only 2 counties outside of the top 18 remain in the championship, Wexford (in 20th) and Louth (in 27th). What chance that they will survive another week?

• Roscommon were the big winners in terms of rating points gained this weekend (4.45) and skip up to 9th place in the rankings; Cavan fall to 21st position
• Longford took 3.50 rating points from Clare and reach 18th in the rankings, their highest position since July 2012
• Fermanagh's big win over Antrim gains them 1.93 rating points and an increase of 1 place in the rankings
• Cork edge closer to Kerry in the rankings after the drawn game in Killarney – amazingly, only 0.34 rating points separates 3rd from 5th
• Kildare got their season back on track with a narrow win over Offaly

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Donegal | 101.98 | 0.00
3| steady| Kerry | 98.36 | -1.11
4| steady| Mayo | 98.12 | 0.00
5| steady| Cork | 98.02 | 1.11
6| steady| Monaghan | 96.13 | 0.00
7| steady| Derry | 89.36 | 0.00
8| steady| Tyrone | 89.10 | 0.00
9| increase| Roscommon | 87.33 | 4.45
10| steady| Kildare | 86.85 | 0.80
11| decrease| Armagh | 86.66 | 0.00
12| decrease| Westmeath | 85.20 | 0.00
13| decrease| Galway | 84.54 | 0.00
14| decrease| Meath | 84.50 | 0.00
15| steady| Sligo | 81.48 | 0.00
16| steady| Tipperary | 81.21 | 0.00
17| increase| Fermanagh | 81.11 | 1.93
18| increase| Longford | 80.96 | 3.50
19| increase| Down | 77.27 | 0.00
20| increase| Wexford | 75.78 | 0.00
21| decrease| Cavan | 75.27 | -4.45
22| decrease| Clare | 73.45 | -3.50
23| increase| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| increase| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
25| decrease| Antrim | 71.70 | -1.93
26| decrease| Offaly | 71.24 | -0.80
27| steady| Louth | 70.98 | 0.00
28| steady| Leitrim | 64.56 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

laoisman11

Another smathering of games this weekend..........and 5 of the games will result in changes in rankings for the teams involved.

Derry (89,36, at home) vs Wexford (75,78)
Wexford can expect a much sterner test than what they faced against Down as Derry have some quality players in their side. That, along with home advantage, means that the prediction model is going for Derry by 8, but given the quality of Wexford's performance 2 weekends ago, and given Derry's erratic form, anything is possible here.

Tipperary (81,21, at home) vs Louth (70,98)
Tippeary will be hoping to get back on track against Louth and to get some more exposure in the qualifiers with the aim of development for the future. Most would see Louth as a push-over but they will feel aggrieved at having been knocked out of the Leinster championship so early and it could easily have been Louth rather than Westmeath in the Leinster final. I feel that this game will be tighter than generally expected. Tipperary by 3

Tyrone (89,10, at home) vs Meath (84,50)
Meath get a visit to Tyrone as a “reward” for their second half collapse to Westmeath. This is destined to be a serious, intense game as both sides are well aware of the opposition's reputation. Home advantage and a slighter better rating swings the decision to the O'Neill county. Tyrone by 2

Longford (80,96) vs Kildare (86,85)
Longford will have been delighted to get past Clare in Ennis last weekend, but Kildare, back on the horse after a hard-fought win over Offaly, are a different proposition. Another tight game in store. Kildare by 2

Armagh (86,66, at home) vs Galway (84,54)
An ideal draw for Armagh to see where they really are at. Armagh made tough work of Wicklow and a repeat performance would certainly seem them leaving the championship. Galway may feel that they have more to offer after their contained display against Mayo. Home advantage may be the deciding factor here again. Armagh by 1

Fermanagh (81,11, at home) vs Roscommon (87,33)
Roscommon's transport plans are well in order this year, having traveled to play London and Cavan already. Roscommon had a good win over Cavan and while Fermanagh will be a tougher opponent, they, like Cavan, are too dependant on individual genius. Roscommon's teamwork to shine through again here. Roscommon by 2

Dublin (104,30, at home) vs Westmeath (85,20)
Dublin can't be stopped they say. The bookies have this as a 15 point win for Dublin (the last time I checked) and it is hard to argue with that, based on Dublin's utter domination of Longford and Kildare. There is also the fear that big day nerves might affect the Westmeath camp. They really need a solid start here to be in with a shout in the last 15 minutes and it will be interesting to see if they can bring some of the exuberance from the Meath performance to this game. The prediction model is a bit more cautious than the general consensus. Dublin by 10

laoisman11

Lots of changes to the mid-table rankings after the weekend:

• Galway were the big winners in terms of rating points, gaining 4.02 and jumping 3 places to 10th, while Armagh slip back to 15th
• Fermanagh move to their highest position since July 2008 after their superb comeback against Roscommon, who now lie in 13th position
• Kildare move into the top 8 following their thumping of Longford
• Tyrone cement their position in 7th but just 2.02 points separates them from 10th
• Tipp gain a slight increase in rating points after their big win over a poor Louth team
• Dublin did not gain any rating points for their Leinster final win

Teams in bold still in championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Donegal | 101.98 | 0.00
3| steady| Kerry | 98.36 | 0.00
4| steady| Mayo | 98.12 | 0.00
5| steady| Cork | 98.02 | 0.00
6| steady| Monaghan | 96.13 | 0.00
7| increase| Tyrone | 90.58 | 1.48
8| increase| Kildare | 89.58 | 2.73
9| decrease| Derry | 89.36 | 0.00
10| increase| Galway | 88.56 | 4.02
11| increase| Westmeath | 85.20 | 0.00
12| increase| Fermanagh | 84.75 | 3.64
13| decrease| Roscommon | 83.69 | -3.64
14| steady| Meath | 83.02 | -1.48
15| decrease| Armagh | 82.64 | -4.02
16| steady| Tipperary | 81.74 | 0.53
17| decrease| Sligo | 81.48 | 0.00
18| steady| Longford | 78.23 | -2.73
19| steady| Down | 77.27 | 0.00
20| steady| Wexford | 75.78 | 0.00
21| steady| Cavan | 75.27 | 0.00
22| steady| Clare | 73.45 | 0.00
23| steady| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| steady| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
25| steady| Antrim | 71.70 | 0.00
26| steady| Offaly | 71.24 | 0.00
27| steady| Louth | 70.45 | -0.53
28| steady| Leitrim | 64.56 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

K-9

I suppose the table reflects the competitiveness or not of each province. Dublin doesn't really gain anything by winning Leinster, Kerry or Cork only really gain for the actual Munster Final whereas Ulster and Connacht have a good few teams of a comparable standard.

laoisman11

Three provincial crowns up for grabs this weekend, along with 2 qualifiers to reduce the number of teams left to 12.

Tipperary (81,74 , at home) vs Tyrone (90,58)
Tipp's facile victory over Louth mightn't have helped them iron out any problems, but it probably did help further increase their confidence. Home advantage is granted to them again for the visit of a Tyrone side who haven't been setting the world on fire (particularly on the score board) but still find themselves in with a great chance of progressing to August. Of course, the under 21 game will be in the minds of the Tipperary players, but hopefully that does not affect the spirit of this game. The prediction model takes Tyrone's superior rating points to say: Tyrone by 3

Galway (88,56 , at home) vs Derry (89,36)
Galway will have been delighted with their victory in the Athletic Grounds against tough opponents and will have to repeat that performance to be in with a shout here. Derry have some class operators on their side but are highly erratic, most notably then they are clear favourites. However, here they are not, and that normally swings things in their favour. The prediction model is going for a very tight affair. Draw

Kerry (98,36, at home) vs Cork (98,02)
Apparently, Kerry have named a much stronger team for the replay but the model cannot take this into account. They should, however, have learnt enough from the drawn game not to take Cork too lightly, and I fancy them to win well here. Kerry by 2

Monaghan (96,13, at home) vs Donegal (101,98)
While everyone has been closely following Donegal's progress this year, it has to be said that Monaghan are coming into this game fairly well under the radar, which I'm sure suits them perfectly. They came through the easy side of the draw, scraping by Cavan before dominating Fermanagh. Donegal have been more than clinical in their games so far and I really fancy them to win here. Home advantage for Monaghan, however, means the model is going for: Draw

Mayo (98,12) vs Sligo (81,48)
Sligo's shock win over Roscommon may have been their Connacht final, and it is difficult to see them repeat that feat here. Mayo are going for their 5th provincial in a row, and need to be aiming for late August/early September in order to build on previous work. This game is predicted to have the widest winning margin of the weekend. Mayo by 7

laoisman11

Some interesting movement at the top of the table.......

• Galway gain the most rating points (3,84) after their bonus point win over Derry and move up 2 places into 8th
• Monaghan move into the top 3 for the first time since November 1988 following their slim victory over Donegal
• Tyrone remain in 7th position, despite picking up 2,75 rating points in their big win in Thurles
• Kerry creep closer to Dublin with the addition of another Munster title and 2,33 rating points
• No rating points were exchanged after Mayo's huge win over Sligo in the Connacht final

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| increase| Kerry | 100.69 | 2.33
3| increase| Monaghan | 99.70 | 3.57
4| decrease| Donegal | 98.41 | -3.57
5| decrease| Mayo | 98.12 | 0.00
6| decrease| Cork | 95.69 | -2.33
7| steady| Tyrone | 93.33 | 2.75
8| increase| Galway | 92.40 | 3.84
9| decrease| Kildare | 89.58 | 0.00
10| decrease| Derry | 85.52 | -3.84
11| steady| Westmeath | 85.20 | 0.00
12| steady| Fermanagh | 84.75 | 0.00
13| steady| Roscommon | 83.69 | 0.00
14| steady| Meath | 83.02 | 0.00
15| steady| Armagh | 82.64 | 0.00
16| increase| Sligo | 81.48 | 0.00
17| decrease| Tipperary | 78.99 | -2.75
18| steady| Longford | 78.23 | 0.00
19| steady| Down | 77.27 | 0.00
20| steady| Wexford | 75.78 | 0.00
21| steady| Cavan | 75.27 | 0.00
22| steady| Clare | 73.45 | 0.00
23| steady| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| steady| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
25| steady| Antrim | 71.70 | 0.00
26| steady| Offaly | 71.24 | 0.00
27| steady| Louth | 70.45 | 0.00
28| steady| Leitrim | 64.56 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

bruschi

It's probably somewhere in the explanation, but cant really decipher why, but why did Tyrone and Tipp have an exchange of points, and Mayo and Sligo didnt. Sligo get hammered, but actually go up a place just because Tipp lost to Tyrone.

Fireball07

bruschi wrote: »

It's probably somewhere in the explanation, but cant really decipher why, but why did Tyrone and Tipp have an exchange of points, and Mayo and Sligo didnt. Sligo get hammered, but actually go up a place just because Tipp lost to Tyrone.

It's got to do with the gap of points between the teams. I think it's 15 points... a big team doesn't get any points for beating much weaker sides.


Bit harsh on Tipp maybe, they are definitely better than Sligo.

bruschi

Fireball07 wrote: »

It's got to do with the gap of points between the teams. I think it's 15 points... a big team doesn't get any points for beating much weaker sides.


Bit harsh on Tipp maybe, they are definitely better than Sligo.

cheers. yeah I'm sure there are a few anomalies in the system, that was just one that stuck out a bit there. In general though, its without doubt the best ranking system I have ever seen anyone try produce, whether by stats or just opinion.

homewardbound11

Starting to show flaws here in ranking . Esp with Monaghan moving to 3 .
Won't read too much into this .

Probably a little harsh on that comment. Apologies . But still difficult to see Monaghan at 3 .

laoisman11

homewardbound11 wrote: »

Starting to show flaws here in ranking . Esp with Monaghan moving to 3 .
Won't read too much into this .

Probably a little harsh on that comment. Apologies . But still difficult to see Monaghan at 3 .

It's all subjective at the end of the day! For me, Donegal were/are in the top 3 in the country, and for Monaghan to edge in front of them seems fair enough.

But there are anomalies such as the Tipp/Sligo one alright, although that is more to do with the fact that in the championship, most teams don't get to play many other similarly-ranked counties, compared to the league.

dcrosskid

laoisman11 wrote: »

It's all subjective at the end of the day! For me, Donegal were/are in the top 3 in the country, and for Monaghan to edge in front of them seems fair enough.

But there are anomalies such as the Tipp/Sligo one alright, although that is more to do with the fact that in the championship, most teams don't get to play many other similarly-ranked counties, compared to the league.

I was going to have a slight complaint but when you think about it it's as the saying goes, 2 bald men fighting over a comb. Tipp are out & I expect Sligo to follow suit against Tyrone & the 2 teams will probably revert back again. It is fairly accurate overall though. Tipp are probably one of the strongest div3 teams and that is where we are ranked.

keane2097

You're always going to have a problem if you take this too seriously on a week by week basis during the Championship.

Ulster teams will naturally drift higher early doors as they have the chance to play more teams they can exchange points with at that stage.

By the time September rolls around you can look at how this has changed from the start of the year and see how reflective it is. It seems very good to me for the most part.

K-9

Monaghan have the second highest win percentage next to Kerry since O'Rourke took over, some of them games were in Division 2 & 3 but they got to a Div. 1 League Semi and won 2 Ulsters. That's a serious record.

laoisman11

We've been so used to having 5-6 games every weekend that this weekend feels almost pedestrian by comparison. Here's hoping that quality overcomes quantity..........

Fermanagh (84.75) vs Westmeath (85.20)
Both teams may be happy with their achievements, either in the qualifiers or the provincials, to date, but a bigger prize awaits here. Fermanagh have a "special one" in the form of Sean Quigley and they do seem to be able to exploit him fairly well. Westmeath seem more balanced and have scoring threats in Heslin and Martin. Fermanagh may have an advantage playing in an Ulster venue, but then again, if Westmeath opened up and played as they did against Meath and Louth, you'd have to fancy them. I'd find it very difficult to pick a winner between these 2, and as the rating points are very similar, the prediction model is going for: Draw.

Cork (95.69) vs Kildare (89.58)
Another difficult one to predict. Cork looked quite poor in the Munster final replay and should provide stiffer resistance in (hopefully) better weather. Kildare have, it has to be said, arrived at this juncture without a serious challenge - Laois (albeit after a replay but in reality how good were Laois), Offaly (ok, a close game, but KE were suffering a major hangover) and Longford were dismissed. The major stain on the All-White psyche has to be the mauling from the Dubs, where Kildare didn't appear to possess either plan or passion. So, which team is it to be? The team which finished top of the table in Division 1 of the league, or the team which finished bottom of Division 2? The prediction model is going with: Cork by 3

blowitupref

laoisman11 without the scoring threat of Heslin (out injured) would that tip the balance in favour of Fermanagh?

CrabRevolution

In real terms it would give Fermanagh an advantage, but the system doesn't take injured/missing players into account.

laoisman11

Just 2 games this weekend, and Kildare are the big, big winners......

• Kildare gain 6.33 rating points and move up to 6th place, their highest position since March 2013. Meanwhile, Cork drop back to 10th, their worst position since July 2005
• Fermanagh increase their rating points by 4.64 and jump 3 places to 9th, their highest since July 2008. Westmeath fall back to 16th, following a generally successful championship

Teams in bold still in championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points| Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Kerry | 100.69 | 0.00
3| steady| Monaghan | 99.70 | 0.00
4| steady| Donegal | 98.41 | 0.00
5| steady| Mayo | 98.12 | 0.00
6| increase| Kildare | 95.91 | 6.33
7| steady| Tyrone | 93.33 | 0.00
8| steady| Galway | 92.40 | 0.00
9| increase| Fermanagh | 89.39 | 4.64
10| decrease| Cork | 89.36 | -6.33
11| decrease| Derry | 85.52 | 0.00
12| increase| Roscommon | 83.69 | 0.00
13| increase| Meath | 83.02 | 0.00
14| increase| Armagh | 82.64 | 0.00
15| increase| Sligo | 81.48 | 0.00
16| decrease| Westmeath | 80.56 | -4.64
17| steady| Tipperary | 78.99 | 0.00
18| steady| Longford | 78.23 | 0.00
19| steady| Down | 77.27 | 0.00
20| steady| Wexford | 75.78 | 0.00
21| steady| Cavan | 75.27 | 0.00
22| steady| Clare | 73.45 | 0.00
23| steady| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| steady| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
25| steady| Antrim | 71.70 | 0.00
26| steady| Offaly | 71.24 | 0.00
27| steady| Louth | 70.45 | 0.00
28| steady| Leitrim | 64.56 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

CrabRevolution

Presumably its Sligo, not Derry, that are supposed to be in bold?

laoisman11

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Presumably its Sligo, not Derry, that are supposed to be in bold?

Well spotted......

I changed it there for you

laoisman11

And soon there will be 6...........

Sligo (81,48) vs Tyrone (93,33)
Sligo were truly abysmal in face of the Mayo juggernaut in the Connacht final and surely will put in a better performance here. Tyrone, with an average score of 15.5 points per game have been making life hard for themselves this year but still can muster several serious quality footballers. Tyrone should hold the midfield advantage over Sligo and if the short kickouts don't work, then Sligo are in deep, deep trouble. I've a feeling that things may get worse for Sligo, but the model is keeping it tight: Tyrone by 5

Donegal (98,41) vs Galway (92,40)
Donegal misfired against Monaghan in the Ulster final and the 2-week break will surely have given them time to rectify some of their mistakes. They have lost Karl Lacey through injury but have quality in depth to cover. Galway, having already disposed of 2 Ulster teams (Derry and Armagh) won't fear this challenge, and the style of Galway's play, although not too easy on the eye, is quite similar to Monaghan's. Whether Galway have the quality to go where Monaghan went remains to be seen. Donegal by 2

Kerry (100,69) vs Kildare (95,91)
I'll admit to having written off Kildare here last week and they sure proved me wrong. Many are saying that the result was due to Cork's short turn-around after the Munster final replay, but that is not giving full credit to Kildare's performance, particularly in attack where they were outstanding. Whether they can get the same supply of ball against Kerry is a different question, but with an average score of more than 21 points per game, Kildare do possess a formidable attacking unit. Kerry are Kerry are Kerry, they seem to manage to grind their way through games with moments of individual brilliance backed up by a resilient team spirit. Tradition, and a superior rating points difference, means it is Kerry to progress. Kerry by 4

Dublin (104,31, at home) vs Fermanagh (89,39)
What a season for Fermanagh to date, they certainly made waves in disposing of both Westmeath and Roscommon, and will be delighted to be still playing in August. They have one of the gems of the game in Sean Quigley and Tomas Corrigan didn't do too badly either against Westmeath. However, they have yet to play outside the province of Ulster this year, and their last visit to Croke Park, for the Division 3 final, didn't have a happy ending. Dublin continue to motor on, swatting aside opposition with their ferocious intensity and intricate movement. The bookies are going for a big win here for the Dubs, the prediction model is a bit more cautious. Dublin by 9

kerryjack

Do you work for a bookmaker just wondering is that how bookies figure out odds on game they usually get it right