Hurling Rankings

Grats

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

A few years ago the President of the GAA suggested that every year, regardless of who's in the final, the League final should be in Thurles. It was a stupid idea, I think, but the idea that the final SHOULD always be in Thurles is out there. But in the case of KK V Tipp it's a home and away agreement.

I agree with the above. I also think that any knock out match in the championship, hurling or football, should be in neutral venues. There is too much at stake in those games and no team should have an advantage.

laoisman11

The latest from Hanalei below

********************

*** week ending MAY 11th 2014 ***
Position|(last week)|Team|Rating Point
1st |(1)|KILKENNY|91.69
2nd |(2)|CLARE|87.87
3rd |(3)|GALWAY|87.17
4th |(4)|DUBLIN|87.07
5th |(5)|TIPPERARY|87.05
6th |(6)|CORK|85.77
7th |(7)|WATERFORD|83.72
8th |(8)|LIMERICK|82.57
9th |(9)|WEXFORD|77.86
10th |(10)|OFFALY|75.19
11th |(11)|LAOIS|73.61
12th |(12)|ANTRIM|72.01
13th |(13)|KERRY|67.61
14th |(14)|CARLOW|64.43
15th |(15)|WESTMEATH|61.73
16th |(16)|DERRY|61.26
17th |(18)+|LONDON|59.42
18th |(17)-|DOWN|59.23
19th |(20)+|MEATH|59.16
20th |(21)+|KILDARE|57.87
21st |(19)-|WICKLOW|57.55
22nd |(22)|MAYO|51.49
23rd |(23)|ARMAGH|47.43
24th |(24)|DONEGAL|47.33
25th |(25)|ROSCOMMON|46.41
26th |(26)|FINGAL|45.43
27th |(27)|TYRONE|40.73
28th |(28)|FERMANAGH|39.23
29th |(29)|LOUTH|38.52
30th |(30)|MONAGHAN|36.49
31st |(32)|LONGFORD|34.58
32nd |(31)|WARWICKSHIRE|31.66
33rd |(33)|SLIGO|29.91
34th |(34)|LEITRIM|27.86



An unremarkable week unless you have an interest in Christy Ring Cup hurling.
Derry have consolidated their ranking as Ulster's number 2 team with their victory over Down whose defeat to the former sees them drop down a place to the benefit of London.
Wicklow's home defeat to Kildare sees them fall two places while Meath and Kildare's victories see them both move up one place.
The rankings suggest that anything other than Kerry winning the Christy Ring cup would be an upset.

* On last weeks rankings, and the Semple Stadium home or neutral question; I understand the debate that arises from this. There are similarities to the is Croke Park home venue for Dublin debate, but unlike Dublin with Croke Park, Semple Stadium is Tipperary's official home venue. And they do have a home / away agreement with Kilkenny (and as far as I'm aware a few more counties). I understand this won't change the minds of some who see it as a neutral venue, but making a ranking system is almost like being a politician; to quote Abraham Lincoln; "You can please some of the people some of the time, all of the people some of the time, but you can never please all of the people all of the time."

--zombie Hanalei--

feargale

Sorry to see that Hanalei has departed.

laoisman11

Latest from the Zombie...........

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Week ending May 18th 2014
Position|(last week)|Team|Rating Point
1st |(1)|KILKENNY|91.69
2nd |(2)|CLARE|87.87
3rd |(3)|GALWAY|87.17
4th |(4)|DUBLIN|87.07
5th |(5)|TIPPERARY|87.05
6th |(6)|CORK|85.77
7th |(7)|WATERFORD|83.72
8th |(8)|LIMERICK|82.57
9th |(9)|WEXFORD|77.86
10th |(10)|OFFALY|75.19
11th |(11)|LAOIS|73.61
12th |(12)|ANTRIM|72.01
13th |(13)|KERRY|68.10
14th |(14)|CARLOW|64.86
15th |(15)|WESTMEATH|61.30
16th |(16)|DERRY|61.26
17th |(17)|LONDON|59.42
18th |(18)|DOWN|59.23
19th |(19)|MEATH|59.16
20th |(21)+|WICKLOW|57.84
21st |(20)-|KILDARE|57.38
22nd |(22)|MAYO|51.49
23rd |(24)+|DONEGAL|47.96
24th |(23)-|ARMAGH|47.14
25th |(25)|ROSCOMMON|46.41
26th |(26)|FINGAL|45.43
27th |(27)|TYRONE|40.73
28th |(28)|FERMANAGH|39.07
29th |(29)|LOUTH|37.89
30th |(30)|MONAGHAN|36.49
31st |(32)|LONGFORD|34.74
32nd |(31)|WARWICKSHIRE|32.58
33rd |(33)|SLIGO|29.91
34th |(34)|LEITRIM|26.94


*Wicklow and Kildare swap places as do Donegal and Armagh, Armagh losing their position as Ulsters fourth best team for the first time.

Lets use the rankings to preview this weekends games. All predictions and points margins made based on points difference between the rankings (with three points added to home team)

Weekend McCarthy Cup preview
Munster SHC
Waterford (7) --v-- (6) Cork (Semple Stadium, Thurles)
Only one position between the two but form would suggest that Limerick and Waterford have spent the last six months drifting out of the top 8 and now find themselves chasing the top 6, a win for Waterford would see them swap places with Cork, while a win for Cork would cast Waterford and Limerick further adrift of the top 6 in points.
Predicted result; Cork by 2 points.

Leinster Qualifier Group
Laois (11) --v-- (12) Antrim (O'Moore Park, Portlaoise)
Results last weekend guaranteed both teams a place in the Leinster championship proper. No disrespect meant to Wexford but the prize for the winner of this clash is an "easier" Leinster quarter final clash with Wexford while the defeated team faces what should be a stiffer test in Galway. Laois have been the more impressive of the two so far this year and with the added benefit of home advantage I would back them to come through here and book a date with Wexford (which would be a good test of just exactly how much Laois have improved this year)
Predicted result; Laois by 5 points.

Westmeath (15) --v-- (17) London (Cusack Park, Mullingar)
Both teams have endured difficult seasons and both are left fighting it out to preserve their McCarthy Cup status for next year. The team who loses will be automatically relegated to the Christy Ring Cup, a draw would help London avoud automatic relegation but would see them having to play off against the Ring Cup champions for a place in next seasons McCarthy Cup. A victory for London would see them secure McCarthy status with Carlow dropping down to the play off spot. A must win game for Westmeath, only a win sees them avoid automatic relegation although they would still be faced with a play off. The ranking system points to a victory for the Lake County here however.
Predicted result; Westmeath by 5 points.

--zombie Hanalei--

Nash Bridges

Keep the updates coming please Hanalei/Laoisman11. I find this stuff fascinating.

Should get interesting from this weekend on again too.

Kerrydude1981

Would also like to see this been continued,been keeping an eye on it,our lads are closing in on Antrim.

laoisman11

Latest from Hanalei's ghost below........

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Week ending May 25th 2014
Position|(last week)|change|Team|Rating Point
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|91.69
2nd |(2)|=|CLARE|87.87
3rd |(3)|=|GALWAY|87.17
4th |(4)|=|DUBLIN|87.07
5th |(5)|=|TIPPERARY|87.05
6th |(6)|=|CORK|85.57
7th |(7)|=|WATERFORD|83.92
8th |(8)|=|LIMERICK|82.57
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|77.86
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|75.19
11th |(12)|+1|ANTRIM|73.47
12th |(11)|-1|LAOIS|72.15
13th |(13)|=|KERRY|68.10
14th |(14)|=|CARLOW|64.86
15th |(15)|=|WESTMEATH|61.81
16th |(21)|+5|KILDARE|59.91
17th |(18)|-1|DOWN|59.23
18th |(19)|+1|MEATH|59.16
19th |(17)|-2|LONDON|58.91
20th |(16)|-4|DERRY|58.73
21st |(20)|-1|WICKLOW|55.91
22nd |(22)|=|MAYO|53.42
23rd |(24)|+1|ARMAGH|47.14
24th |(26)|+2|FINGAL|46.98
25th |(23)|-2|DONEGAL|46.41
26th |(25)|-1|ROSCOMMON|43.61
27th |(27)|=|TYRONE|43.53
28th |(28)|=|FERMANAGH|39.07
29th |(29)|=|LOUTH|37.89
30th |(30)|=|MONAGHAN|36.83
31st |(31)|=|LONGFORD|34.74
32nd |(32)|=|WARWICKSHIRE|32.58
33rd |(33)|=|SLIGO|29.57
34th |(34)|=|LEITRIM|26.94


*Waterford and Cork's draw had little effect, a 0.2 points exchange from Cork to Waterford. Antrim's victory in Portlaoise sees them and Laois swap places, but more importantly earns them a less tricky tie with Wexford while Laois must now face Galway, although if last year was anything to go by Laois will have no fear of Galway. Westmeath's victory consolidates 15th place while London drop two places to 19th although they will be more upset by the fact they have been automatically relegated back to the Ring cup.

* Two away victories in the Ring cup. Mayo's win at Arklow sees Wicklow drop from 20th to 21st while Kildare's big win against Derry sees them exchange 2.53 points, resulting in big moves for both sides, Kildare rising 5 places to 16th and Derry falling 4 places to 20th.

* Two big upsets in the Rackard cup where favourites and expected finalists Roscommon and Donegal both fell at the semi final hurdle despite having home advantage. Both lose places to the benefit of Fingal who move up two to 24th.


*** zombie Hanalei ***

laoisman11

Latest from Hanalei below.........

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Week ending June 1st 2014
Position|(last week)|change|Team|Rating Point
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|91.69
2nd |(2)|=|CLARE|87.87
3rd |(3)|=|GALWAY|87.17
4th |(4)|=|DUBLIN|87.07
5th |(6)|+1|CORK|85.57
6th |(5)|-1|TIPPERARY|85.30
7th |(8)|+1|LIMERICK|84.32
8th |(7)|-1|WATERFORD|83.92
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|78.70
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|75.19
11th |(11)|=|ANTRIM|72.63
12th |(12)|=|LAOIS|72.15
13th |(13)|=|KERRY|68.10
14th |(14)|=|CARLOW|64.86
15th |(15)|=|WESTMEATH|61.81
16th |(16)|=|KILDARE|61.75
17th |(17)|=|DOWN|59.23
18th |(19)|+1|LONDON|58.91
19th |(20)|+1|DERRY|58.73
20th |(18)|-2|MEATH|57.32
21st |(21)|=|WICKLOW|55.91
22nd |(22)|=|MAYO|53.42
23rd |(23)|=|ARMAGH|47.14
24th |(24)|=|FINGAL|46.98
25th |(25)|=|DONEGAL|46.41
26th |(26)|=|ROSCOMMON|43.61
27th |(27)|=|TYRONE|43.53
28th |(28)|=|FERMANAGH|39.07
29th |(29)|=|LOUTH|37.89
30th |(30)|=|MONAGHAN|36.83
31st |(31)|=|LONGFORD|34.74
32nd |(32)|=|WARWICKSHIRE|32.58
33rd |(33)|=|SLIGO|29.57
34th |(34)|=|LEITRIM|26.94


* Limerick defied expectation with their first win against Tipp in Thurles since 1973. This moves them up a position and Tipperary down a position. The league had suggested that Waterford and Limerick were being cast adrift from the top 6, the last 8 days have proven otherwise.
* Galways expexted win over Laois saw no points exchange while Wexford took 0.84 points at the expense of Antrim.
* Kerry have not won many points from their impressive Ring cup run as they are so far ahead of their fellow teams in points, their win against Mayo brought them nothing. Kildare's victory over Meath brought them no positional gain but a good points gain of 1.84. Meath drop two positions.

--- zombie Hanalei ---

feargale

I would have expected Laois to overtake Antrim after the weekend.

laoisman11

feargale wrote: »

I would have expected Laois to overtake Antrim after the weekend.

Unfortunately, there are no points gained for losing...........

nice_guy80

bonus point for getting within 3 at the final whistle?

laoisman11

nice_guy80 wrote: »

bonus point for getting within 3 at the final whistle?

If the margin of victory is 8 points or greater, the rating point transfer is multiplied by 1.5. So to answer your question, the losing team are penalised further if they lose by 8 or more.

In the case of the Laois-Galway game, a Galway win was never going to result in a point exchange as Galway were more than 10 rating points above Laois.......a Laois win on the otherhand........remains a dream for next year!

dastardly00

Any updates laoisman11?

laoisman11

Update as requested!

---

Position|(last week)|change|Team|Rating Point
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|91.69
2nd |(5)|+3|CORK|87.93
3rd |(4)|+1|DUBLIN|87.53
4th |(3)|-1|GALWAY|87.17
5th |(2)|-3|CLARE|86.76
6th |(6)|=|TIPPERARY|85.30
7th |(7)|=|LIMERICK|84.32
8th |(8)|=|WATERFORD|82.67
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|78.24
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|75.19
11th |(11)|=|ANTRIM|72.63
12th |(12)|=|LAOIS|72.15
13th |(13)|=|KERRY|66.46
14th |(14)|=|CARLOW|64.86
15th |(16)|+1|WESTMEATH|63.55
16th |(15)|-1|KILDARE|61.65
17th |(17)|=|DOWN|59.23
18th |(19)|+1|DERRY|58.94
19th |(18)|-1|LONDON|58.91
20th |(20)|=|MEATH|57.32
21st |(21)|=|WICKLOW|55.91
22nd |(22)|=|MAYO|53.42
23rd |(23)|=|ARMAGH|46.93
24th |(24)|=|DONEGAL|46.41
25th |(25)|=|FINGAL|45.63
26th |(26)|=|TYRONE|44.88
27th |(27)|=|ROSCOMMON|43.61
28th |(28)|=|LOUTH|37.89
29th |(29)|=|FERMANAGH|37.64
30th |(30)|=|MONAGHAN|36.83
31st |(31)|=|LONGFORD|36.51
32nd |(32)|=|WARWICKSHIRE|32.58
33rd |(33)|=|SLIGO|29.23
34th |(34)|=|LEITRIM|26.94


*Almost all teams outside the top 12 are finished hurling until next Spring. The rest of the Ulster hurling championship and one relegation promotion play off remain.
*Big change in the top 5 where the order from 2nd to 5th was turned upside down, Cork now up to number two after their impressive win over Clare. Galway lose a place despite not playing but have an opportunity to move to number 2 this weekend.

--- zombie Hanalei ---

laoisman11

The latest update from Hanalei below..........

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Position|(last week)|change|Team|Rating Point
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|91.24
2nd |(2)|=|CORK|87.93
3rd |(4)|+1|GALWAY|87.62
4th |(3)|-1|DUBLIN|87.53
5th |(5)|=|CLARE|86.76
6th |(6)|=|TIPPERARY|85.30
7th |(7)|=|LIMERICK|84.32
8th |(8)|=|WATERFORD|82.67
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|78.24
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|75.19
11th |(11)|=|ANTRIM|72.63
12th |(12)|=|LAOIS|72.15


Just the top 12 this week, only game played by all counties was Kilkenny v Galway.

Galway make a small points gain following their dramatic comeback and move ahead of Dublin.

Tyrone were due to play Down in a Ring/Rackard promotion/relegation play-off but disappointingly, Tyrone opted to give a walkover to Down, as they felt they hadn’t enough time to adequately prepare for this match. I’m sure it had nothing to do with the fact that the most likely outcome was a very big victory for Down. The date of the promotion/relegation was known to Tyrone all year, and it was even pushed back a week to accommodate the Ulster hurling championship. Unlikely and all as a Tyrone victory was, I find it very disappointing that they chose not to take the opportunity to have a shot at promotion.


A summary of Rackard and Meagher cup teams charting their 2014 highest and lowest positions, and showing how many points they gained/lost since the start of the year.

RACKARD CUP
Position|Team|’14 high|’14 low|Point change
24th |DONEGAL|23|26|+0.46
25th |FINGAL|23|26|-2.14
26th |TYRONE|26|28|+5.4
27th |ROSCOMMON|25|27|-1.01
28th |LOUTH|27|29|-5.77
30th |MONAGHAN|29|30|-0.8
33rd |SLIGO|32|33|-3.64



MEAGHER CUP
Position|Team|’14 high|’14 low|Point change
29th |FERMANAGH|28|30|+2.93
31st |LONGFORD|31|33|+4.37
32nd |WARWICKSHIRE|31|32|-1.74
34th |LEITRIM|34|34|+0.9



*** zombie Hanalei ***

feargale

laoisman11 wrote: »

The latest update from Ha
Tyrone were due to play Down in a Ring/Rackard promotion/relegation play-off but disappointingly, Tyrone opted to give a walkover to Down, as they felt they hadn’t enough time to adequately prepare for this match. I’m sure it had nothing to do with the fact that the most likely outcome was a very big victory for Down. The date of the promotion/relegation was known to Tyrone all year, and it was even pushed back a week to accommodate the Ulster hurling championship. Unlikely and all as a Tyrone victory was, I find it very disappointing that they chose not to take the opportunity to have a shot at promotion.

Agreed. So say all of us, I'm sure.

feargale

laoisman11 wrote: »

The latest update from Ha
Tyrone were due to play Down in a Ring/Rackard promotion/relegation play-off but disappointingly, Tyrone opted to give a walkover to Down, as they felt they hadn’t enough time to adequately prepare for this match. I’m sure it had nothing to do with the fact that the most likely outcome was a very big victory for Down. The date of the promotion/relegation was known to Tyrone all year, and it was even pushed back a week to accommodate the Ulster hurling championship. Unlikely and all as a Tyrone victory was, I find it very disappointing that they chose not to take the opportunity to have a shot at promotion.

Agreed. So say all of us, I'm sure.

zombieHanalei

A big thank you to laoisman11 for posting this for me during my sabbatical, however it's not fair on me to put this on him. Not that he ever complained, he was always happy to oblige. I joined boards originally just to post these rankings to see what people thought, and I received some excellent feedback and constructive criticism. However the best feedback came from laoisman11 himself who took what I did and improved upon it to create the football rankings. So I've raised my game a little, made a few tweaks here and there (including championship weighting that most called for) and this is the result. Now the differences aren't obvious but from observing how the rankings developed over the 2005-2014 period compared to the previous system I had used in this thread all along, I feel that the new system has given a better reflection on how the counties have fared.

Also, if you're reading this Hammer Archer, I want to apologise to you for leaving you in the lurch with the hurling championship pools, I should have contacted you at first to tell you I was closing the account so I'd understand if you saw that as a bit of a dick-ish move on my part. So, sorry Hammer Archer.

*Only change to the rankings this week; three counties climb a place as a result of Kilkenny's big win over Galway which drops them from third to sixth.

Position|(last week)|change|Team|Points
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|9050
2nd |(2)|=|CORK|8726
3rd |(4)|+1|DUBLIN|8655
4th |(5)|+1|CLARE|8637
5th |(6)|+1|TIPPERARY|8539
6th |(3)|-3|GALWAY|8502
7th |(7)|=|LIMERICK|8308
8th |(8)|=|WATERFORD|8223
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|7746
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|7580
11th |(11)|=|LAOIS|7246
12th |(12)|=|ANTRIM|7108
13th |(13)|=|KERRY|6601
14th |(14)|=|CARLOW|6518
15th |(15)|=|WESTMEATH|6421
16th |(16)|=|KILDARE|6283
17th |(17)|=|DOWN|6023
18th |(18)|=|DERRY|5943
19th |(19)|=|LONDON|5936
20th |(20)|=|MEATH|5722
21st |(21)|=|WICKLOW|5679
22nd |(22)|=|MAYO|5384
23rd |(23)|=|ARMAGH|4834
24th |(24)|=|DONEGAL|4782
25th |(25)|=|FINGAL|4673
26th |(26)|=|TYRONE|4667
27th |(27)|=|ROSCOMMON|4426
28th |(28)|=|LOUTH|3966
29th |(29)|=|FERMANAGH|3876
30th |(30)|=|MONAGHAN|3856
31st |(31)|=|LONGFORD|3731
32nd |(32)|=|WARWICKSHIRE|3409
33rd |(33)|=|SLIGO|3101
34th |(34)|=|LEITRIM|2878


The system has been amended, I've taken advantage of some newly found free time over the last two weeks and implemented a new weighted system.

*Points exchange now weighted by 1.5 (50% extra) for provincial finals and all knockout championship games. No weighting applied to league or provincial games (with the exception of finals)

*New "bands" of points exchange, previously I used just draw, win/loss by 1-7 points, win/loss by 8+ points. Now there are 5 categories; 1-Draw, 2-Win/Loss 1-3pts, 3-Win/Loss 4-6pts, 4-Win/Loss 7-9pts, 5-Win/Loss 10+pts.

Otherwise, same as before, with everything multiplied by 100 just because not using decimal points saves a small bit of time.


JULY 5th/6th PREVIEW

Three big games to consider this weekend

DUBLIN (3) -v- KILKENNY (1)
Kilkenny will be glad to be back in the final after a rare absence, last year was just the second time in Cody's reign they didn't participate in the Leinster decider. For a team seen by some as in transition, Kilkenny have held the number one spot for all bar one week since September 2012. The rankings point to a Kilkenny victory here.
KILKENNY by 4

CLARE (4) -v- WEXFORD (9)
Could the draw have gone any worse for Wexford? They came very close to beating Clare in the qualifiers last year before Clare roasted them in extra time. Although Clare haven't quite looked their best, a trip to Cusack Park is almost akin to a trip to Nowlan Park at the moment, the rankings tip a heavy win here, the margin of which I am in disagreement with.
CLARE by 12

TIPPERARY (5) -v- GALWAY (6)
Like Wexford, Galway have drawn a short straw with a tricky away assignment, but that's where the parallels end as Galway have every chance of claiming the spoils here. Tipperary have already been defeated by Limerick at Semple Stadium (in addition to a home defeat to Clare in the league), anything could happen here, I wouldn't bet on the outcome, but the rankings go for a Tipp victory.
TIPPERARY by 4

zombieHanalei

I'd really appreciate it if someone could post this image; (I can't post images or links due to low post count)

http /oi57. tinypic.com/73kolf.jpg

laoisman11

zombieHanalei wrote: »

I'd really appreciate it if someone could post this image; (I can't post images or links due to low post count)

http /oi57. tinypic.com/73kolf.jpg

No problem.......

Godge

laoisman11 wrote: »

No problem.......

Interesting graph.

At a first glance, the rise of Dublin, the falls of Wexford and Offaly, as well as Clare's drop and rebound are well captured by the graph. So too is Kilkenny's dominance over the decade.

zombieHanalei

A very traditional feel to the table after this weekend, the big three occupying the top 3 positions.

Wexford take 100 points from Clare, edging Wexford closer to the top 8. Dublin's heavy defeat enables Clare to remain 4th.
Derry defeated Down in their replayed Ulster semi final which moves them up two to 17th. However no weighting applies to this championship as it has no link to a national championship. (McCarthy, Ring etc.)

Position|(last week)|change|Team|Points
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|9171
2nd |(2)|=|CORK|8726
3rd |(5)|+2|TIPPERARY|8691
4th |(4)|=|CLARE|8537
5th |(3)|-2|DUBLIN|8534
6th |(6)|=|GALWAY|8400
7th |(7)|=|LIMERICK|8308
8th |(8)|=|WATERFORD|8223
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|7846
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|7580
11th |(11)|=|LAOIS|7246
12th |(12)|=|ANTRIM|7108
13th |(13)|=|KERRY|6601
14th |(14)|=|CARLOW|6518
15th |(15)|=|WESTMEATH|6421
16th |(16)|=|KILDARE|6283
17th |(18)|+1|DERRY|6063
18th |(19)|+1|LONDON|5936
19th |(17)|-2|DOWN|5903
20th |(20)|=|MEATH|5722
21st |(21)|=|WICKLOW|5679
22nd |(22)|=|MAYO|5384
23rd |(23)|=|ARMAGH|4834
24th |(24)|=|DONEGAL|4782
25th |(25)|=|FINGAL|4673
26th |(26)|=|TYRONE|4667
27th |(27)|=|ROSCOMMON|4426
28th |(28)|=|LOUTH|3966
29th |(29)|=|FERMANAGH|3876
30th |(30)|=|MONAGHAN|3856
31st |(31)|=|LONGFORD|3731
32nd |(32)|=|WARWICKSHIRE|3409
33rd |(33)|=|SLIGO|3101
34th |(34)|=|LEITRIM|2878




JULY 12th/13th PREVIEW

Four games this weekend.

TIPPERARY (3) -v- OFFALY (10)
Tipperary bounced back with a vengeance against Galway and they will surely be very happy with this draw. They have the potential to go all the way but they have not come close to fulfilling that potential since Liam Sheedy stepped down. They won in 2010 via the qualifier route so this game gives them a chance to build on the momentum gained from their second half performance last weekend. It gives me no pleasure to be dismissive of Offaly (far from it in fact) but keeping the scoreline respectable would represent a good day out for them.
TIPPERARY by 11

WEXFORD (9) -v- CLARE (4)
Last week I asked "could the draw have gone any worse for Wexford?" and this weekend I'd like to personally thank them for ramming that question firmly back down my throat! A great game served up by these two but both will be disappointed and will feel there is much room for improvement. The thing is, Clare have far more scope to improve, Wexford have the benefit of home advantage but to use that tired old cliché, one suspects that they have missed their chance. Clare to win, but only just.
CLARE by 4

CORK (2) -v- LIMERICK (7)
Since the drawn game with Waterford Cork have been very impressive, only for a 73rd minute equaliser last September they would currently be holding the McCarthy cup, in terms of personnel Cork are stronger than last year too. They say farewell to Páirc Uí Chaoimh together with a select few of their supporters, can Limerick spoil that party? The 41 year Tipp in Thurles hoodoo was finally ended last month, but from what I've seen of both teams this year I can only see Cork shading this one. The rankings go for a 7/8 point win, I personally believe it will be a lot closer than that.
CORK by 7

ANTRIM (12) -v- DERRY (17)
The Ulster hurling final also takes place next weekend, Antrim looking to win their 13th title in a row, Derry won this title back in 2000 and 2001 (some of us might recall Derry giving Offaly a big fright in the 2000 All-Ireland quarter final) but there is nothing to suggest Derry have any realistic chance of glory here. Antrim have dominated the Ulster championship in the last 12 years and have typically won the final by huge margins, they defeated Derry by 18 points in 2012 and defeated Down by 12 in the 2013 decider (which incidentally, was played in February 2014). I suspect this will be no different.
ANTRIM by 14

zombieHanalei

This is a little off topic but I thought I may as well throw it in here for the hell of it.

Make of this what you will, an analysis of teams performance since introduction of the qualifier system in 2002. Games from the All-Ireland series only (i.e Quarter finals, semi finals and finals)

The fact that we have witnessed arguably the greatest team of all time in Kilkenny over that time period has swung the statistics dramatically in favour of the Leinster champion winning team, but it kind of serves to illustrate that statistically speaking, success in the Munster championship counts for absolutely nothing when it comes to the All-Ireland series. In fact, since 2002 Munster has had 3 All-Ireland champions via the qualifiers and just one who went via winning the Munster final!

I know these stats don't necessarily mean anything but I still believe it's interesting nonetheless.

Team(s)|Played|Won|Drawn|Lost|Win %|AI Champions
Leinster Champion|25|19|1|5|76%|7
All-Ireland Qualifier|61|26|5|30|42.6%|3*
Munster Runner-Up|17|7|1|9|41.2%|0*
Munster Champion|22|9|2|11|40.9%|1
Leinster Runner-Up|14|5|1|8|35.7%|1
Ulster Champion|3|0|0|3|0%|0


*Note; Cork won the All-Ireland in 2004 as Munster runner-up, however from 2002-2004 Munster and Leinster runners up did not qualify automatically for the All-Ireland series, so they are counted as a qualifier in 2004.

zombieHanalei

Cork make a modest gain at Limerick's expense, not enough to change their respective positions.

Clare's defeat sees them drop one place to 5th to the benefit of Dublin.

Wexford made two good points gains in the last two weekends and now have Limerick and Waterford in their sights, worth keeping an eye on them in the coming weeks, they have not been in the top 8 since June 2008, good opportunity for them to go as high as 7th over the next two weekends, or more importantly for them; a good opportunity to reach a first All-Ireland semi final since 2007.

Wins also for Tipperary and Antrim over Offaly and Derry respectively but the points gap was too large for either Tipp or Antrim to make points gains.

Position|(last week)|change|Team|Points
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|9171
2nd |(2)|=|CORK|8764
3rd |(3)|=|TIPPERARY|8691
4th |(5)|+1|DUBLIN|8534
5th |(4)|-1|CLARE|8448
6th |(6)|=|GALWAY|8400
7th |(7)|=|LIMERICK|8270
8th |(8)|=|WATERFORD|8223
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|7935
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|7580

zombieHanalei

All-Ireland Qualifier

WATERFORD (8) -v- WEXFORD (9)

Very difficult to call this one, Paddy Power giving 10/11 on Waterford and evens on Wexford. Both teams have shown major promise but both have been hurt by inexperience; both were taken to replays by last years All-Ireland finalists in games that they really should have held out and won; the difference however is that Wexford (eventually) won their replay and Waterford were dismissed with ease by Cork.

This is the perfect game for both teams at this stage of the championship, and a difficult but not daunting game awaits in the quarter final against Limerick for the victors. I personally would slightly favour Wexford but the rankings say otherwise.
Predicted result; Waterford by 3

PREVIOUS CHAMPIONSHIP MEETINGS
This will be the third ever championship game between these two counties.
2003: Wexford 1-20; Waterford 0-18. (Nowlan Park, Kilkenny)
2008: Waterford 2-19; Wexford 3-15. (Semple Stadium, Thurles)

zombieHanalei

So in what may come as a disappointment to some, Wexford's win over Waterford did not result in a positional swap, but it does signal that the big 8 has now become the big 9, as the gap is now completely closed, Wexford have hit their highest points total in 6 years. Wexford started 2014 in 10th and almost 7000 points off 8th, the gap is now down to 30.

A win for Wexford over Limerick next week would guarantee them a move from 9th to 7th. Preview of next weekends quarter finals to follow.

Position|(last week)|change|Team|Points
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|9171
2nd |(2)|=|CORK|8764
3rd |(3)|=|TIPPERARY|8691
4th |(4)|=|DUBLIN|8534
5th |(5)|=|CLARE|8448
6th |(6)|=|GALWAY|8400
7th |(7)|=|LIMERICK|8270
8th |(8)|=|WATERFORD|8094
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|8064
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|7580

CrabRevolution

zombieHanalei wrote: »

So in what may come as a disappointment to some, Wexford's win over Waterford did not result in a positional swap, but it does signal that the big 8 has now become the big 9, as the gap is now completely closed, Wexford have hit their highest points total in 6 years. Wexford started 2014 in 10th and almost 7000 points off 8th, the gap is now down to 30.

A win for Wexford over Limerick next week would guarantee them a move from 9th to 7th. Preview of next weekends quarter finals to follow.

Position|(last week)|change|Team|Points
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|9171
2nd |(2)|=|CORK|8764
3rd |(3)|=|TIPPERARY|8691
4th |(4)|=|DUBLIN|8534
5th |(5)|=|CLARE|8448
6th |(6)|=|GALWAY|8400
7th |(7)|=|LIMERICK|8270
8th |(8)|=|WATERFORD|8094
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|8064
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|7580

Is that really supposed to read 7000? Or did you mean 700? Or was something lost in the multiplying*100 when you returned?

zombieHanalei

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Is that really supposed to read 7000? Or did you mean 700? Or was something lost in the multiplying*100 when you returned?

Correct! Despite a Maths degree it seems I can't do basic subtraction


ALL-IRELAND QUARTER FINAL

LIMERICK (7) -v- WEXFORD (9)

Wexford are becoming the story of the championship so far and victory next weekend would earn them 7th place in the rankings but more importantly a first semi final place since 2007. Both teams will feel they have a good opportunity to progress here, neither will fear the other. I suspect the deciding factor may be the fact that a fourth straight weekend of competitive hurling may catch up with Wexford, if Limerick make the required changes and play to their best I'd cautiously tip my home county. However, the painful memories of 1996 and 2001 are still fresh in my mind, I'll always have a healthy respect for and fear of those pesky Wexicans!!

Predicted result; Limerick by 2

Final word; Can Wexford defy the rankings for a fourth game in a row?


PREVIOUS CHAMPIONSHIP MEETINGS
1910: Wexford 7-0; Limerick 6-2. (Jones's Road, Dublin)
1918: Limerick 9-5; Wexford 1-3. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1955: Wexford 2-12; Limerick 2-3. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1996: Wexford 1-13; Limerick 0-14. (Croke Park, Dublin)
2001: Wexford 4-10; Limerick 2-15. (Croke Park, Dublin)
2009: Limerick 1-13; Wexford 0-14. (Wexford Park, Wexford)
2011: Limerick 1-21; Wexford 2-13. (Gaelic Grounds, Limerick)


Dublin v Tipperary preview to follow tomorrow.

Nonoperational

This is a great thread, cheers.

dastardly00

Yeah, great stuff zombieHanalei.

Wexicans! LOL!

zombieHanalei

ALL-IRELAND QUARTER FINAL

DUBLIN (4) -v- TIPPERARY (3)

Put simply, the winner here will move up one position and the loser will move down at least one place. Tipperary have reacted positively to the Limerick defeat with two very convincing victories while Dublin have yet to really show their best consistently this year and they appear to be continuing their trend of alternating between good and disappointing seasons.

Both have been disappointing at times this season but Tipperary have shown improvement of late and home advantage will help seal the deal. Can Dublin get back to where they were this time last year? Unless they do this is only going one way in my opinion.


Predicted result; Tipperary by 5

This will be their 10th meeting, 9th if the walkover of 1887 is excluded, history does not make for good reading for Dublin here as they seek their first victory in 97 years. (Although first win in 5 clashes doesn't sound so bad!)

PREVIOUS CHAMPIONSHIP MEETINGS
1887: Tipperary w/o; Dublin scr. (Mountrath)
1896: Tipperary 8-14; Dublin 0-4. (Jones's Road, Dublin)
1906: Tipperary 3-16; Dublin 3-8. (Kilkenny)
1908: Tipperary 3-15; Dublin 1-5. (Athy)
1917: Dublin 5-4; Tipperary 4-2, (Croke Park, Dublin)
1930: Tipperary 5-6; Dublin 3-6. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1961: Tipperary 0-16; Dublin 1-12. (Croke Park, Dublin)
2007: Tipperary 1-21; Dublin 1-11. (Parnell Park, Dublin)
2011: Tipperary 1-19; Dublin 0-18. (Croke Park, Dublin)

zombieHanalei

Big wins today resulting in six positional changes. Limerick move up to 5th but as only 29 points separate them and 7th, defeat to Kilkenny in the semi final would send them back down one or two places, a defeat of 1 to 3 points would move them to 6th.

Tipperary's third win in a row sees them back into second place marginally ahead of Cork, Clare have benefited from Dublin's large defeat, moving ahead of the Dubs despite not playing.

Wexford finish the year in 9th, perhaps a little harsh but a year on year improvement of 315 points has them now snapping at the heels of the top 8. They started the year 700 points adrift and behind Offaly.

Waterford finish the year with their lowest points total and position since June 2006.


Position|(last week)|change|Team|Points
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|9171
2nd |(3)|+1|TIPPERARY|8800
3rd |(2)|-1|CORK|8764
4th |(5)|+1|CLARE|8448
5th |(7)|+2|LIMERICK|8429
6th |(4)|-2|DUBLIN|8425
7th |(6)|-1|GALWAY|8400
8th |(8)|=|WATERFORD|8094
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|7905
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|7580

zombieHanalei

No games this weekend so lets look at the outcomes of the first All-Ireland semi-final. Kilkenny currently lie in 1st on 9171 points and Limerick lie 5th on 8429.

Kilkenny will still be 1st regardless of outcome, Limerick will definitely change position, and will fall to 7th with a defeat of 4 or more points. A small defeat of 3 points or less will see them finish in 6th.

A draw or win for Limerick will move them up to 4th, and in the unlikely event of Limerick winning by 10 points or more they will move up to 3rd.

Winner|Margin|Pts exch|KLK Pts|LIM Pts|LIM N.P.
Kilkenny|10+|52|9223|8377|7th
Kilkenny |7-9|43|9214|8386|7th
Kilkenny|4-6|34|9205|8395|7th
Kilkenny|1-3|26|9169|8403|6th
draw|0|74|9067|8503|4th
Limerick|1-3|174|8997|8603|4th
Limerick|4-6|232|8939|8661|4th
Limerick|7-9|290|8719|8881|4th
Limerick|10+|345|8823|8777|3rd

LIM N.P. = Limerick's new position
Pts exch = Points exchanged

Some end of year scenarios;

Limerick can finish the year no higher than second. So were they to win the final, the final order would be 1-KLK, 2-LIM, 3-winner of COR/TIP, 4-loser of COR/TIP.

If either Cork or Tipperary win the AI, they will end the year in 1st, with KK in second.

Kilkenny can not go lower than second in any scenario.

zombieHanalei

ALL-IRELAND SEMI FINAL

KILKENNY (1) -v- LIMERICK (5)

Kilkenny are so far ahead that even if they were to lose they would still be in 1st no matter what happens, Limerick are guaranteed a positional change as has been detailed in the previous post. But unfortunately for my home county I fear it's down we will be moving as I can't see Kilkenny losing here.

Key area could be the midfield battle, Ryan and Browne have been excellent for Limerick, but Kilkenny will offer a stiff test to this partnership, Richie Hogan is hurler of the year material so far, and one key battle could be TJ Reid v Paudie O'Brien, Reid is having a good year, O'Brien isn't so far, Limerick need the Paudie O'Brien of 2012/2013 to turn up.

Limerick have played two games since Kilkenny won the Leinster final, a long 5 week wait. Will that be a factor? Probably not; this has regularly been the scenario facing Kilkenny in the last 15 years, Brian Cody's team will be right up to speed. Since Cody took charge at the end of 1998, Kilkenny have won 12 out of 14 All-Ireland semi finals and last year was the only time Kilkenny never made it to that stage during his reign. Kilkenny to win by a few, although the ranking points margin predicts a 7 point win.

Predicted result; Kilkenny by 7

This will be their 11th meeting, Limerick without a win since 1973, Brian Cody has been in charge for three of those 10 games and the closest Limerick have gotten so far was a 5 point defeat in 2005.

PREVIOUS CHAMPIONSHIP MEETINGS
1898: Limerick 3-4; Kilkenny 2-4. (Jones's Road, Dublin)
1933: Kilkenny 1-7; Limerick 0-6. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1935: Kilkenny 2-5; Limerick 2-4. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1936: Limerick 5-6; Kilkenny 1-5. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1940: Limerick 3-7; Kilkenny 1-7. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1973: Limerick 1-21; Kilkenny 1-14. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1974: Kilkenny 3-19; Limerick 1-13. (Croke Park, Dublin)
2005: Kilkenny 0-18; Limerick 0-13. (Croke Park, Dublin)
2007: Kilkenny 2-19; Limerick 1-15. (Croke Park, Dublin)
2012: Kilkenny 4-16; Limerick 1-16. (Semple Stadium, Thurles)

zombieHanalei

And so the 'Big 3' will finish the year as the top 3, all that is left to be determined is the order. Kilkenny held Limerick out today and Limerick fall one place to 6th as a result.

Sixth may seem harsh on Limerick, but what I've maintained all along is that the points say more than the positions; In terms of points there is nothing between Clare, Dublin, Limerick and Galway.


Position|(last week)|change|Team|Points
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|9197
2nd |(2)|=|TIPPERARY|8800
3rd |(3)|=|CORK|8764
4th |(4)|=|CLARE|8448
5th |(6)|+1|DUBLIN|8425
6th |(5)|-1|LIMERICK|8403
7th |(7)|=|GALWAY|8400
8th |(8)|=|WATERFORD|8094
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|7905
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|7580

feargale

Ok, you have your method which I'm only vaguely au fait with, but I find it difficult to get my head around Limerick dropping after today's performance.

zombieHanalei

feargale wrote: »

Ok, you have your method which I'm only vaguely au fait with, but I find it difficult to get my head around Limerick dropping after today's performance.

Points exchange system. Kilkenny gained points at Limerick's expense, and as Limerick were only a tiny margin in front of Dublin heading in to today, the points exchange between them and Kilkenny dropped them back one place.

A team that loses will lose points and potentially lose positions.

dastardly00

@zombiehanalei

Can Tipp/Cork get to #1 if they win the AI?

Nonoperational

feargale wrote: »

Ok, you have your method which I'm only vaguely au fait with, but I find it difficult to get my head around Limerick dropping after today's performance.

They lost?

zombieHanalei

dastardly00 wrote: »

@zombiehanalei

Can Tipp/Cork get to #1 if they win the AI?

Off the top of my head (don't have access to the file right now) the All Ireland champion will definitely finish number 1 and loser of Cork/Tipp will definitely be number 3.

zombieHanalei

ALL-IRELAND SEMI FINAL

CORK (3) -v- TIPPERARY (2)

One of the great tussles in the history of this game brings them together for the very first time outside Munster. The 5 week gap between games had no effect on Kilkenny but since the backdoor was opened to all teams in 2002 the Munster champion has often been been caught cold.

Excluding 2005 to 2007 when Munster/Leinster champions had a quarter final assignment instead of being parachuted into the semi finals, the Munster champion has won just three times out of nine after the long 5 week wait. The Munster champion tends to get caught by a team on the back of a run of victories in the qualifiers.

Another omen in Tipperary's favour is that from 2008 to 2012 they won four Munster finals, yet the one year they failed to land the Munster crown and were forced to take the long road through the qualifiers was the one year they won the All-Ireland.

However, omens and history will not determine the winning and losing of this game. Cork have responded well to the kick up the arse they received from Waterford in their drawn game. This year they have added quality and depth to a squad that came agonisingly close to a spectacular comeback victory in the drawn A-I final last year, Aidan Walsh in particular has impressed. Tipp will need to be disciplined as Horgan is probably the most clinical dead ball taker in the country right now. Tipp appear to have recovered well since their defeat to Limerick but while Galway troubled them for 50 minutes they were pretty abysmal for the final quarter of that game.

The question mark over Tipp for me is how will they respond if the game is in the melting pot with ten minutes to go; under O'Shea they have wilted in the closing stages of close tight games with Limerick (twice) and Kilkenny, three games many in Tipp would feel they could and perhaps should have won. Cork finished strongly in the closing stages of the games v Waterford (drawn game) and Limerick. Tipp have improved; but have they improved by enough?

Predicted result; DRAW

(A cowards prediction! However the two teams are separated by less than 50 points which is the range for a draw, but as Tipp have more points there is obviously a slight leaning towards them. Me personally? Cork by 4)



PREVIOUS 10 CHAMPIONSHIP MEETINGS
2000: Cork 0-23; Tipperary 3-12. (Páirc Uí Chaoimh)
2004: Cork 2-19; Tipperary 1-16. (Fitzgerald Stadium, Killarney)
2005: Cork 1-21; Tipperary 1-16. (Páirc Uí Chaoimh)
2006: Cork 2-14; Tipperary 1-14. (Semple Stadium)
2007: Tipperary 2-16; Cork 1-18. (Semple Stadium)
2008: Tipperary 1-19; Cork 1-13. (Páirc Uí Chaoimh)
2009: Tipperary 1-19; Cork 0-19. (Semple Stadium)
2010: Cork 3-15; Tipperary 0-14. (Páirc Uí Chaoimh)
2011: Tipperary 3-22; Cork 0-23. (Semple Stadium)
2012: Tipperary 1-22; Cork 0-24. (Páirc Uí Chaoimh)

You'll forgive for not typing details of each of their previous 84 championship meetings! More details can be found here; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cork%E2%80%93Tipperary_hurling_rivalry

dastardly00

Great stuff as usual zombieHanalei.

gobo99

First of I think its a good system you're using to rank and fair play for keeping the thread updated but a slight criticism of the predictions. You said last week "the ranking points margin predicts a 7 point win" for Kilkenny. Having won by only 2 points Kilkenny are now further ahead in the ranking points. Presumably if Kilkenny and Limerick played again next weekend the ranking points margin would predict a win for Kilkenny greater than 7 points. Doesn't make sense.

I suppose what im saying is if a team "beats the spread" as limerick did, they should gain ranking points rather than loose them.

zombieHanalei

To be honest the predictions mean nothing and any criticism of that can't be argued with. The predictions are just something I do for my own amusement and to just try and keep the thread a little interesting.

In the league this year it was actually reasonably accurate; I won the NHL hurling pools on the GAA forum here and that was mainly on the back of me using the rankings to predict all division 2 and 3 games while I used my own judgement on the division 1 games.

It's not possible to predict what will happen, all 'Kilkenny by 7' means is that Kilkenny are adjudged to be 7 points better a team than Limerick at present, as opposed to saying Kilkenny will win by 7.

And as though to further validate your criticism the net effect of last weekends game is to say Kilkenny are now 8 points better a team than Limerick despite only beating them by 2. But as I said, the predictions are essentially meaningless, but I like to think they make the thread a bit more interesting.

Pointless predictions aside, I think it's a fairly solid ranking system.

zombieHanalei

It seems if you want to win the Liam McCarthy cup, it's not a good idea to win the Munster final. Since the introduction of the backdoor to all counties in 2002 the Munster champion has fallen at the semi final stage in 2002, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2014. No Munster champion has won the All-Ireland since 2005. Cork finish the year in 3rd. 1st place up for grabs in the final.

Tipp take 193 points from Cork and close the gap to Kilkenny.


Position|(last week)|change|Team|Points
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|9197
2nd |(2)|=|TIPPERARY|8993
3rd |(3)|=|CORK|8571
4th |(4)|=|CLARE|8448
5th |(5)|=|DUBLIN|8425
6th |(6)|=|LIMERICK|8403
7th |(7)|=|GALWAY|8400
8th |(8)|=|WATERFORD|8094
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|7905
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|7580

zombieHanalei

Table ranking teams in order of points gained to lost over 2014. McCarthy cup teams highlighted in bold.

Most improved teams are Wexford, Kilkenny and Tipperary. Tyrone are the most improved team in the country following their successes in division 3B and the Rackard cup.


Team|points change|Positional change
Tyrone|+557|+2
Longford|+475|+2
Wexford|+315|+1
Derry|+262|+3
Tipperary|+260|+1
Kilkenny|+257|=
Mayo|+257|=
Fermanagh|+252|+2
Kerry|+234|+2
Kildare|+201|+1
Limerick|+137|+2
Galway|+103|=
Donegal|+92|+1
Leitrim|+53|=
Wicklow|+37|=
Laois|+14|=
Antrim|-17|=
London|-18|=
Cork|-57|+1
Monaghan|-60|-1
Offaly|-68|-1
Carlow|-70|=
Meath|-119|-1
Dublin|-132|=
Armagh|-163|=
Roscommon|-172|-1
Fingal|-195|-1
Warwickshire|-222|-2
Westmeath|-276|-2
Waterford|-321|-2
Clare|-343|-2
Sligo|-352|-1
Down|-385|-3
Louth|-536|-1

zombieHanalei

Just in case anyone is interested; the following is a link to download an MS Excel spreadsheet documenting the standings at the end of each month since February 2005.

https://www.sendspace.com/file/s2xv3p

Note; each team started 2005 with "dummy points" based on final league positions and championship performances in 2004, so it took about 5/6 months for the "dummy points" to iron themselves out.

zombieHanalei

ALL-IRELAND FINAL

KILKENNY (1) -v- TIPPERARY (2)

The more things change the more they stay the same, just when it seemed the whole thing had been blown wide open in 2013 we're back to a Kilkenny v Tipperary final. Since 2009 this will be the 4th All-Ireland final, in addition to three National hurling league final meetings over that period. Of those six meetings, Tipperary's AI final victory in 2010 remains their solitary victory.

Tippereary's response to their defeat to Limerick in the Munster semi final has been emphatic, they struggled to shake off Galway for the first three quarters before blowing them away in the closing stages and they haven't looked back. Kilkenny didn't have too much trouble in Leinster aside from uncharacteristically taking their foot off the gas in the last 10 minutes in the drawn game v Galway. And they dug deep in torrential conditions in the semi final v Limerick; one hell of a game which ultimately was decided by Kilkenny just having that extra bit of cuteness in front of goal at both ends.

Interestingly, both teams have played almost identical opposition. Both hammered Offaly, both hammered Dublin, both were given trouble by Galway before ultimately winning relatively easily and both were involved in tight tussles with Limerick.

In terms of the ranking points gap, Kilkenny are currently rated as being two points better. Tipperary are within close enough range that a victory will earn them top spot. Worth noting however, that in their 5 championship games Tipperary have beaten the prediction by 4.4 points on average, while Kilkenny have beaten it by 2.2 points.


Predicted result; KILKENNY by 2




PREVIOUS 10 CHAMPIONSHIP MEETINGS
1967: Kilkenny 3-8; Tipperary 2-7. (Croke Park)
1971: Tipperary 5-17; Kilkenny 5-14. (Croke Park)
1991: Tipperary 1-16; Kilkenny 0-15. (Croke Park)
2002: Kilkenny 1-20; Tipperary 1-16. (Croke Park)
2003: Kilkenny 3-18; Tipperary 0-15. (Croke Park)
2009: Kilkenny 2-22; Tipperary 0-23. (Croke Park)
2010: Tipperary 4-17; Kilkenny 1-18. (Croke Park)
2011: Kilkenny 2-17; Tipperary 1-16. (Croke Park)
2012: Kilkenny 4-24; Tipperary 1-15. (Croke Park)
2013: Kilkenny 0-20; Tipperary 1-14. (Nowlan Park, Kilkenny)

This will be their 25th championship meeting; Of the 24 previous meetings the win count stands at Tipperary 13-11 Kilkenny.

Browney7

Hanelai, have you ever looked at the FIFA ranking system and do you think it would work for hurling? Your's is based on a points exchange between teams but the FIFA one is based on an average over the past 4 years?

zombieHanalei

Browney7 wrote: »

Hanelai, have you ever looked at the FIFA ranking system and do you think it would work for hurling? Your's is based on a points exchange between teams but the FIFA one is based on an average over the past 4 years?

I have looked at a bit but never to the extent of attempting to implement it for hurling. It has a few flaws I don't agree with, for example the Regional strength weighting is totally unnecessary I feel, and the rankings themselves throw up some unusual results at times.

In terms of the Mathematics of it it would be a little too time consuming, my programming skills are middling at best so I know I wouldn't be able to create something to work around the FIFA system. As it stands I have made the process fairly simple for the IRB style ranking system as I know MS Excel fairly well and it's basically a box ticking exercise for me now.

The best system I believe is the ELO system, if I had the time (and thankfully I don't!!) I'd go back and calculate the hurling rankings with the ELO method. If you follow the FIFA rankings I recommend checking them out;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings
http://www.eloratings.net/world.html