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Super XV 2014 General Discussion Thread
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Last Season: 13th
Overview: Last season’s bottom-placed team in the Australian conference face a tough task to not repeat that achievement. It will be an uphill struggle as they were the lowest points scorers in Super Rugby last season. The Perth-based team will want to improve on their 4 wins last season. They are one of two Aussie teams who start the season with last season’s coach which should be an advantage. This season the squad will have a distinctive South African look, which they hope will add some steel to their squad. They have also added Luke Morahan, who impressed in the Red’s game against the Lions, and will be relying on him to add some pace to their attack. They have a number of Aussie internationals to call upon such as Hugh McMeniman, Ben McCalman, and Nick Cummins. How these players mesh together will impact on the Force's chances of finishing higher in the table.
3 to watch out for:
Ben McCalman: The versatile backrower probably thought his international career could be over with the emergence of Fardy and Mowen, and the return of Higginbotham and Pocock to the Australian side. However with the departure of Mowen, the opportunity presents itself for someone to step up. McCalman’s versatility will stand too him, a big season this year could see him feature in the summer tests off the bench. He might not be winning games with the Force but if he can stand out with his performances, I am sure McKenzie will take notice.
Kyle Godwin: A great young talent, equally adept at 10 or 12. It will be a hard job for him to make the Aussie world cup squad, with similar players to him playing in better teams. It will also be a worry to him that the fly-halves and centres in the Aussie squad are young as well. So while this World Cup is probably too soon for him, he will want to be holding his hand-up for selection post-World Cup. He will be surrounded by some good backs such as Morahan and Cummins. The quality of ball he gets will be the issue. I can see him causing trouble to a few teams but not consistently enough to worry those in possession of the Aussie squad places.
The Honey Badger: It is hard not to like Nick Cummins, his post-match interviews are a must watch. However his personality and character can actually overshadow how good a rugby player he is. He is not that flashy and he does the simple things well, also not afraid to put his body on the line. At the moment he is in the Aussie squad for the World Cup but his real goal has to be a starting place. His rivals will be playing in better teams and will be getting a better quality of ball, so Cummins really needs to shine at doing the basics.
Aim for the Season: Win all their home games against their fellow Aussie teams, while taking some points on the road. Should target their home games against the Lions and the Blues for wins. Any other wins outside that would be a bonus. Should be aiming for around 6-7 wins. Finishing fourth in the conference would be acceptable but they will want to show they can push on. A repeat of last year would be a disaster.
Prediction: 5th in the Aussie conference again, but a higher points total.0 -
Last Season: 12th
Overview: Fourth overall in the Aussie Conference and 12th in the Super Rugby table yielded the Rebels best ever finish in their three years in Super Rugby. Most people would classify last season as a success; that is apart from the Rebels who believe they should be targeting the playoffs. So out went the coach, and in came Tony McGahan with his goal of toughening up the Rebels lacklustre defence. Their squad does not have any of the big name players that other Aussie teams have, even the Force. For NH rugby fans, Scott Higginbotham is the only recognisable name and possibly Luke Burgess as well. The rest of the squad is made of young players who will be eager to impress but will probably lack the experience of closing out games. The lack of quality front rowers and second rows in Australia is evident in the Rebels as well as the Force. Will be a big ask for their tight five to front up against the international packs of the other teams.
3 to watch out for:
Scott Higginbotham: His performances last year, before his injury, were outstanding. He really drove the team forward and was responsible for the good run of form. He was a big loss to the Lions series as well. This season he will be driven on by his goal to regain his place in the Aussie side. The team will be counting on his leadership and experience in close fought games. If he can replicate last season’s form, he will walk back into the Aussie side.
Luke Burgess: Back from his sojourn in France. He left Australia as the understudy to Genia, and he came back early last season hoping to return straight away to that position. He was left out of the Aussie squad for the Lions series and subsequent Aussie sides. He will be targeting a return to the Aussie squad this year. His age might count against him, but the performances of Nic White when he deputised for Genia will mean that the McKenzie will still be searching for the perfect back-up to Genia. Like Higginbotham, this young and inexperienced side will be depending on Burgess for leadership. They will not be playing their haphazard style of last season, they will have a more structured gameplan and they will need someone to direct them around the field. Burgess will really need to step up this season if the Rebels want to be a success.
Bryce Hegarty: There was only player that impressed me when he played 10 last season for the Rebels, and it certainly was not O’Connor or Beale. It was young Bryce Hegarty, who despite some flaws in his game, showed that he can step-up to play Super Rugby. This will be a big year for the 21 year old, with the Rebels aiming for a playoff place. While he will not be the difference between whether the Rebels get the playoffs or not, his performances could certainly help the Rebels become more stable and not going from a win to a thrashing in one game. Like Godwin, if he has Aussie aspirations he really needs to hold his hand up this year and there is no better way than steering his team towards the playoffs.
Aim for this Season: Add some defensive structure to their game, last season they looked good on attack but absolutely porous in defence. If they bring a bit of balance to their game they should really not see any of the thrashings that they have received in the past. Will be targeting home victories against all the Aussie teams, and will be looking to win against the Force away as well. Should be close fought battles away to the Tahs, Reds and Brumbies as well. Will be targeting home wins against the Cheetahs and the Hurricanes, and an away win against the Lions. While the playoffs will be targeting, getting the structures in place for a playoff push the season after might be the more realistic goal.
Prediction: 4th again, but no more thrashings.0 -
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Last Season: 9th
Overview: Last season the Tahs showed they have genuine class but probably not enough to be taken seriously. This season they are well placed for not only making the playoffs but also topping the Aussie conference. They have the same coach as last year, a pretty unknown coach in the NH (especially in Leinster), which should be an advantage. They have a fair few international players and one or two world class players. The renewal of the Phipps-Foley partnership could be crucial to any playoff hopes, they are both quick players so can trouble defences. The challenge will be to blend it all together into a coherent team. If they can get it all together, I can easily see them topping the conference.
Three to watch out for:
Michael Hooper: He is probably still revering in the domestic and international plaudits of last season but he cannot take it all for granted. He has to hold off the massive challenge of David Pocock to retain the 7 jersey. It has to be one of the stories of this Super Rugby season, two world class players seeking to outdo each other in every game. The battles between the Tahs and the Brumbies will be fascinating to watch. The challenge should hopefully push Hooper on to be consistently a world class player at club level.
Israel Folau: What a debut season, he adapted so quickly to the game. Nothing seemed to bother him last season. All eyes will be on him to see if he can keep it up for the second season. If he can maintain the same level, it would be hard not to classify him as world class. There are some kinks to work out of his game, better awareness of space and more eagerness to pass. However they are minor complaints rather than major faults. He is a truly special talent.
Kurtley Beale: Another truly special talent, but someone who really needs to prove it this year. His spell at the Rebels was memorable, just not on the field. Back at the Tahs, he should regain the form that made him once the best full back in the world. However he will not be proving himself as a world class full back at the Tahs, as Folau will not be disposed. Foley is 1st choice at 10 as well, so Beale will have to make 12 his own position. He has the talent to do it, but will he have the attitude and character to make it a success. If he does, it will be good not just for the Tahs but also for Australia. While he might not displace the Australian starters, he may just grab a bench place with a return to form.
Aim for the Season: It has to be making the playoffs, and even topping the conference. Should aim to win all their home and away games this season against the Aussie sides, especially the away game against the Reds and the Brumbies who they will be competing with for the top spot. Should be looking to beat the Highlanders (Home), Hurricanes (Home), Lions (Home) and Blues (Away). This has to be the season they go all out for the playoffs, they have the advantage of having the same coach and adding some talented players to an already talented squad.
Prediction: 2nd. I have rewritten this so many times, swapping between 1st, 2nd and 3rd. I just believe they have the talent to edge out the Reds but will fall short of coming first.0 -
Last Season: 5th
Overview: Last season’s playoff losers and the last non-Chiefs team to win the Super Rugby tournament, face a challenge not only to win the tournament but also make the playoffs. They have the talent but they lack a bit of squad depth, which is highlighted by the presence of “Leinster Legend” Ed O’Donoghue on the Reds bench. Injuries to key players would really harm this Reds team, performances dropped off last season with an injury to Horwill. A new coach might cause some initial problems as they bed in new ideas so it will be interesting to see how quickly the Reds adapt. It will be a worry to the Reds also that normally crucial Australian players Horwill and Genia were not on top form. A return to form for these two players and Quade keeping up his form will be crucial to any success. Playoffs are certainly achievable, and a string of good performances could even see them top the conference.
Three to watch out for:
Quade Cooper: Last season, Quade started the season battling for his Australian future. A mixed bag of performances meant he did not feature in the Lions series. Initially under McKenzie it looked like he would be continued to be side-lined, but when given his chance he certainly took it. He looked back to his brilliant best. The big question is consistency for him, if he can maintain consistency he might be looked at as one of the best fly-halves in the world. He will also be defending from 10 which will be interesting, not just in terms of defence but also in terms of attack. Cooper launching attacks from deep was a regular occurrence for the last few seasons, so it will be interesting to see this new game plan for the Reds. Cooper will need to play to a high stand to hold off pressure from Toomua and Lealiifano for the Aussie jersey.
James Horwill: Once thought of as the only good lock in Aussie rugby, but his performances last season toppled that statement. He was outshone by his club colleague Simmons. He is only retaining his international place due to a lack of depth in the lock department in Australia. It had to have been very embarrassing for Horwill to have the captaincy taken off him and also be overlooked for the vice captaincy. Horwill’s leadership under Deans really came into focus, accusations of a lax approach in the dressing room really had to affect his on field approach. Also the fact that McKenzie said that he took the captaincy off Horwill so he could focus more attention on his game, actually meant the fans and media focussed more on his game. While his international place is relatively safe, he will want a strong performance as a player and a leader this season to prove his importance to Australia.
Will Genia: Will Genia being dropped was once thought as unimaginable, but that is exactly what happened last season and it was fully justified. He was really off form last season, and his attitude off the pitch did not endear himself to his fellow teammates. Like Horwill, he is not really under threat at international level (unless you like Nic “BoxKick” White). His partnership with Cooper can be very special, and he will need to rely on Cooper to help him regain his form. The looser Super Rugby defences of some team will provide ample opportunity for his sniping runs. He will be crucial to any playoff hopes that the Reds have, an injury to him would be disastrous.
Aim for the Season: Playoffs. Also to keep Genia, Cooper and Horwill fit. They are heavily reliant on those three, so playoff hopes will depend on those three staying fit. Home wins against all Aussie teams, and away wins at the Rebels and the Force. A win away at either the Tahs or the Brumbies would be a bonus. Should be looking for wins against the Cheetahs (Home), the Lions (Away), Stormers (Home), Highlanders (Home) and Crusaders (Home).
Prediction: 3rd. It was a difficult choice, I just feel the lack of squad depth and the heavy reliance on the form of three players can mean that the Reds could easily become unstuck.0 -
Last Season: 3rd
Overview: Last season’s beaten finalists would have thought they were well placed for another assault on the Super Rugby Crown after losing to the Chiefs. Then they had an off season to forget, Jake White went back to South Africa and their captain Ben Mowen announced he will be off at the end of the season. The effects of this changes will be fully seen in the season. It might not be that destabilising, Mowen will remain as captain while Larkham and Fisher will both step up into the leadership role. The new coaching structure on paper should be a success with the duties divided between them. Larkham’s rise to Head Coach has come a few seasons earlier than expected. Big things are expected of Larkham, and the players will have the experience of working alongside him and Fisher. I do not see the coaching change being a hindrance to the team. Turning to the Brumbies squad, the team that made it to the last season’s final was made up of unproven and inexperienced players. Now they are packed full of internationals who took to the international scene with ease, players such as Fardy, Mowen, Toomua, Lealiifano, Kuridrani, Tomane, Sio, White, and Mogg (the latter three to a lesser extent). They have the experience of Stephen Moore, Pocock, Ben Alexander, and Pat McCabe to rely on as well. They will be boosted by the confidence of these newly capped players and the experience of the other players should be enough to see them into the playoffs. Whether they have enough to top the conference is another thing, but if they keep up last season’s form they are well placed to top it again.
Three to watch out for:
David Pocock: A world class 7, there is no player that can do what he can do on the pitch. Will his injury have any long term impact on his game? I certainly hope not. As mentioned when discussing Hooper, the battle between them will be colossal. Pocock’s previous world class form counts for nothing now when Hooper is displaying form that is close to world class. Pocock will really need to step it up this year. He is lucky to be surrounded by a good pack. Personally, an Australian side without Pocock when he is fit would be very strange but at the moment that would be the case, so Pocock has a massive fight on his hands to regain the 7 jersey. It is something really to look forward to.
Matt Toomua: A great Super Rugby season last year should have meant that he figured during the Lions series, as he was the only in form 10 in Australia at the time. He did get his go at 10 under McKenzie but he seemed to struggle to adapt to a more expansive game than played at the Brumbies. His move to 12 proved to be a revelation, he kept out his club colleague Lealiifano. Playing 12 took some of the pressure off him and helped him to settle into the team. At the moment he has the 12 jersey for Australia but he probably has his eyes on the 10 jersey but if 12 offers him his best chance of starting he will not be complaining. However this Super Rugby season will see him back at 10 with Lealiifano beside him at 12. He is crucial to the Brumbies style of play so should continue to thrive under the new coaching panel. He will not be kicking the points but he will be pulling the strings, and will be directing the Brumbies towards the playoffs.
Henry Speight: It has been finally confirmed that Speight will be Australian qualified for this year’s November Internationals. The fact that his eligibility has been so often discussed in the Aussie media highlights how important he can be to the Aussie side. While he will not walk into the side, the lack of depth in the wings means that he will leap to the top of the queue even ahead of his club mate Joe Tomane. Speight is a pacey winger, who can take on players and beat them. There will be a lot of focus on him this year so he will, like other Brumbies players, face a lot of media attention. Every performance will be judged with one eye on his potential Aussie selection. How he copes with this attention will be important to the Brumbies. He scored 8 tries last season, and the Brumbies will be expecting a similar return if they want to top the Aussie conference.
Aim for the Season: It has to be topping the Aussie conference and a return to the Super Rugby Final. They will hope there will be no drop in form with the off season changes. Wins against all the Aussie sides both home and away will be targeted. Home wins against the Stormers, the Blues, and the Sharks should be targeted. A home game against the Chiefs half way through the season could be crucial to the season, a win in that game could drive the team on in the second half. A loss could derail the season, with games against the Crusaders (away), Sharks (home), Cheetahs (away) and the Bulls (away) coming after that game. These games will define the season, win the home games and one of the away games there quest for the playoffs will certainly be on.
Prediction: 1st. I initially had them finishing second, with the off-field turmoil but now I do not think it will have that much of an impact. They will be driven to prove that Jake White was not responsible for their success, and that last year was not a once off. With the experience they have and their newly capped players they should once again be a force to be reckoned with.0 -
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