Anyone else depressed with house hunting?

coolemon

gaius c wrote: »

You skirt it in your next paragraph but how do people who don't pay for their housing get priced out of it?

Because at points in time it becomes more profitable for landlords (or prospective builders) to sell/renovate their properties as family homes, rather than rent them. This may be the case for two reasons I can think of. 1) at points in time overall rental yields may lag behind purchase prices, or vice versa. 2) certain types of housing stock is scarce or limited (particularly in Dublin). Demand or a desire for centrally located period red bricks is high, yet those available on the market are either very expensive or located in thus far undesirable locations.

The house on Reuban street is a prime example. It seems to have been renovated by a builder or landlord given how quick it has flipped since renovation. This house will most likely sell for the askling price, if not above. Yet the rental yields on a property like that do not match the purchase price. In this case, it makes sense to sell as a family home rather than use the property for rental purposes.

As to who will buy it. Someone who wants a centrally located red brick but at a more affordable price. But the individuals, the pioneer gentrifiers, are a particular type of person. Usually young professionals starting their career with a smallish budget working in the city. They are not "high net" individuals in broader terms, so more open to settling in hitherto lower class areas.

So what you have is a gradual process of higher net (relative to the local population) individuals/families moving in to renovated red-bricks.

As this process continues there are then various factors which displace lower net individuals out of an area.

-> Landlords are incentivised to sell their existing properties as family homes (as explained above), displacing those renting.
-> local facilities emerge which serve higher net individuals (Ennis Butchers, as a local example), as gentrification continues.
-> Landlords may raise rent (if gentrification makes the area more desirable, or if rental housing becomes less available due to gentrification).
-> The pioneer gentrifiers become wealthier as they progress in their careers, thus influencing the other factors.

Rialto, Dolphins Barn and SCR have all the ingredients for gentrification. In particular, the housing stock and location.

Its a safe bet imo.

Edit: In addition, the "pioneer" gentrifiers are generally less well off than those who follow when gentrification becomes more established. The higher renovation costs of the larger houses in other localities in Dublin, such as the NCR, may actually slow or prevent gentrification from occuring -> since it would require a "well off" "Pioneer gentrifier" to buy up and move in to a run down lower class area. And this is generally how gentrification does not happen.

But the smaller housing stock and renovation costs of Rialto, Dolphins Barn and SCR are more accessible for the typical first wave pioneer gentrifiers.

coolemon

Moomat wrote: »

Ringsend/Irishtown has a huge amount of social housing, probably the majority of the residents if not now then very recently and that did nothing to hinder the gentrification of those areas.

I agree, all these places inside the M50 will become more desirable eventually and I think many of the no go area will lie in the suburbs.

I agree. However the rate of gentrification will very much depend upon the rate of displacement and the freeing up of potential properties. With dedicated social housing and rent allowances and state support the rate of displacement will be slower. Not that that is necessarilly a bad thing.

moxin

Dream on Coolemon, thats wishful thinking for that area.The young professionals first priority is safety in an area like that. Gentrification has not occurred in the last 30 years or during the bubble there, why will it successfully happen now?

The north Docklands has only been successfully gentrified for one particular reason, the former residents were shipped out to Ballymun\Tallaght.

coolemon

moxin wrote: »

Dream on Coolemon, thats wishful thinking for that area.The young professionals first priority is safety in an area like that. Gentrification has not occurred in the last 30 years or during the bubble there, why will it successfully happen now?

It is innaccurate to say that it has not happened in the last 30 years. It is happening, and it is observable. But it is very gradual.

Property prices during the Celtic Tiger in the city centre, Rialto, Dolphins Barn and the SCR were extremely high for a variety of reasons. Those who we refer to as "pioneer gentrifiers" would not have been able to afford city centre houses, and were thus forced elsewhere to otherwise undesirable city suburbs or outer suburbs.

Gentrification requires a particular catagory of people, with a greater earning potential over their lifetime, to settle in hitherto lower class areas.

Those pioneers did not exist to gentrify Rialto, DB and the SCR during the Celtic Tiger because 1) they were starting their careers 2) had not realised their earning potential and 3) could not afford city centre houses for the afformentioned reasons.

Thus, for Rialtio, DB and the SCR to gentrify during the Celtic Tiger period it would have required an a-typical high earning pioneer gentrifier to decide to move to a run-down lower class area. And, as I stated, this is not how gentrification usually happens.

And as I explained in a previous post, gentrification requires timing. And the timing was wrong during the Celtic Tiger years.

But what we see now are the following factors. 1) Desirable housing stock is more affordable to the demographic usually associated with "pioneer gentrifiers". 2) Rental-house price differentials are favourable to the releasing of housing stock for non-rental purposes. 3) An older middle-aged generation who bought in the area many years back are now reaching their earning potential, and which thus constitute a form of gentrification (local amenities and services emerge to facilitate that higher earning capacity).

So I anticipate an accelerated period of gentrification -> with both new pioneer gentrifiers moving to these areas and an older generation now realising their higher earning potential/disposable income.

moxin

And how do you address the safety element for the "gentrifiers"? Those underclass elements are still in the aforementioned areas and as the Gardai say this new generation is part of the criminal gang framework now. No money can buy you safety unless you live in a gated community with personal bodyguards.

coolemon

moxin wrote: »

And how do you address the safety element for the "gentrifiers"? Those underclass elements are still in the aforementioned areas and as the Gardai say this new generation is part of the criminal gang framework now. No money can buy you safety unless you live in a gated community with personal bodyguards.

There is a cohort of people who might have safety concerns about the south west inner city. But a common characteristic amongst many pioneer gentrifiers is that, while in their college years, they would have rented in inner city areas. They are therefore fully aware of the safety concerns -> or the lack thereof.

The pioneer gentrifiers have been there, done that. They are not entirely unfamiliar with such surroundings having rented there. Infact they seek it out as an escape from the boring outer suburbs they grew up in.

handlemaster

coolemon wrote: »

There is a cohort of people who might have safety concerns about the south west inner city. But a common characteristic amongst many pioneer gentrifiers is that, while in their college years, they would have rented in inner city areas. They are therefore fully aware of the safety concerns -> or the lack thereof.

The pioneer gentrifiers have been there, done that. They are not entirely unfamiliar with such surroundings having rented there. Infact they seek it out as an escape from the boring outer suburbs they grew up in.

I think you have streached the appeal of the area and then some. Maybe stab vests with every house sale would encourage these intellectuals to buy....NOT

gaius c

coolemon wrote: »

It is innaccurate to say that it has not happened in the last 30 years. It is happening, and it is observable. But it is very gradual.

Property prices during the Celtic Tiger in the city centre, Rialto, Dolphins Barn and the SCR were extremely high for a variety of reasons. Those who we refer to as "pioneer gentrifiers" would not have been able to afford city centre houses, and were thus forced elsewhere to otherwise undesirable city suburbs or outer suburbs.

Gentrification requires a particular catagory of people, with a greater earning potential over their lifetime, to settle in hitherto lower class areas.

Those pioneers did not exist to gentrify Rialto, DB and the SCR during the Celtic Tiger because 1) they were starting their careers 2) had not realised their earning potential and 3) could not afford city centre houses for the afformentioned reasons.

Thus, for Rialtio, DB and the SCR to gentrify during the Celtic Tiger period it would have required an a-typical high earning pioneer gentrifier to decide to move to a run-down lower class area. And, as I stated, this is not how gentrification usually happens.

And as I explained in a previous post, gentrification requires timing. And the timing was wrong during the Celtic Tiger years.

But what we see now are the following factors. 1) Desirable housing stock is more affordable to the demographic usually associated with "pioneer gentrifiers". 2) Rental-house price differentials are favourable to the releasing of housing stock for non-rental purposes. 3) An older middle-aged generation who bought in the area many years back are now reaching their earning potential, and which thus constitute a form of gentrification (local amenities and services emerge to facilitate that higher earning capacity).

So I anticipate an accelerated period of gentrification -> with both new pioneer gentrifiers moving to these areas and an older generation now realising their higher earning potential/disposable income.

I don't agree with you and I think you understate the "anti-gentrification" forces present but at least you have taken the trouble to explain your point of view.

coolemon

handlemaster wrote: »

I think you have streached the appeal of the area and then some. Maybe stab vests with every house sale would encourage these intellectuals to buy....NOT

You are over stating the safety concerns. I assume you do not live in the SW inner city. Either way, gentrification is an observable occurence in much of the inner city, including the south west.

handlemaster

coolemon wrote: »

You are over stating the safety concerns. I assume you do not live in the SW inner city. Either way, gentrification is an observable occurence in much of the inner city, including the south west.

I can only assume your selling because your blinkered view seems over the top. Sure it could happen that people will flock to buy in this area but it won't be any time soon. As someone else stated it didn't happen during the boom years its unlikely to happen now.

Bepolite

People are referring to the gentrification of the SCR. That's happened already. A good 4 bed house will set you back the guts of half a million on the SCR. 2/3 bedroom wreck 250K cash. The streets further down from Rialto (Near Griffith College) are very desirable and very expensive. You're talking about an area that houses one Supreme Court Judge and a retired Irish Ambassador and that's just the ones I'm aware of personally.

My issue with Rialto is that massive social complex at Fatima. That's going to be a huge drag factor on any gentrification of the area. I'm actually thinking of taking as punt nearer to Fairview. I think the Ballybough area stands more of a chance than Rialto personally. There are a lot of big old houses rather than high density complexes (I'm not ignoring Summerhill). Croke Villas looks like it will be demolished.

Ray Palmer

Bepolite wrote: »

I think the Ballybough area stands more of a chance than Rialto personally. There are a lot of big old houses rather than high density complexes (I'm not ignoring Summerhill). Croke Villas looks like it will be demolished.

I am great believer on gentrification of areas. Ballybough as somewhere coming up might not be right. Family have been waiting about 30 year for that to happen. They knocked down the council flats and put up more which means the people in social housing aren't going anywhere. Not saying anything about the people there just they won't have the income to gentrify the area. There are pockets in the areas that it has started in

Marino certainly is an areas that has become gentrified over the years considering it is primarily council housing. Actually the whole areas was designed to look like a spinning wheel as the land used to be used to raise sheep.

gaius c

Bepolite wrote: »

People are referring to the gentrification of the SCR. That's happened already. A good 4 bed house will set you back the guts of half a million on the SCR. 2/3 bedroom wreck 250K cash. The streets further down from Rialto (Near Griffith College) are very desirable and very expensive. You're talking about an area that houses one Supreme Court Judge and a retired Irish Ambassador and that's just the ones I'm aware of personally.

My issue with Rialto is that massive social complex at Fatima. That's going to be a huge drag factor on any gentrification of the area. I'm actually thinking of taking as punt nearer to Fairview. I think the Ballybough area stands more of a chance than Rialto personally. There are a lot of big old houses rather than high density complexes (I'm not ignoring Summerhill). Croke Villas looks like it will be demolished.

No we're not. We're very specifically talking about Rialto & Maryland area.

Bepolite

gaius c wrote: »

No we're not. We're very specifically talking about Rialto & Maryland area.

Re-read what people have written.

levi

Bepolite wrote: »

People have to be having a laugh! Went to see this today -

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/28-reuben-street-south-circular-road-rialto-dublin-8/2716497

nice house, right by the Fatima Luas stop so not the best area fair few interesting characters around. Really like the house so thought we might go as high as 225K which I though was high but frankly it's worth it for the convenience of it being bang on what we want decor-wise. €246K already, been on less than two weeks. People are mental!

Now at 270k apparently...

gaius c

levi wrote: »

Now at 270k apparently...

Two words: foreclosure stuffing

gaius c

More on it.

As we explained before when we clarified the concept of “foreclosure stuffing”, as a result of clogging up the foreclosure pipeline, where millions in homes will not clear the market for years, as even less inventory will enter and exit the foreclosure process, the inventory of available homes declines even more, pushing prices even higher, but not due to a rise in demand, but simply due to a subsidized contraction in supply.

Bepolite

levi wrote: »

Now at 270k apparently...

Absolutely and utterly mental!

Seriously - if other property does this I'm riding this one out. Not a chance I'd pay 270K for that place. I'll find a nice 2 bed apartment somewhere and live mortgage free.

Ciaran_B

This is probably a stupid question but I’m new to this house buying stuff. If there are two houses advertised for sale by the same EA there’s no problem with me calling them and enquiring about both of them at the same time?

Ush1

Ciaran_B wrote: »

This is probably a stupid question but I’m new to this house buying stuff. If there are two houses advertised for sale by the same EA there’s no problem with me calling them and enquiring about both of them at the same time?

Totally fine, usually doesn't make much odds at all which house you go for with the EA as long as it's a house they have.

leahyl

Absolutely and utterly crestfallen, was in contact with bank again as I'm looking at houses again so want to have approval in place for if/when I find a property - they can now only offer me 83k....so from 138k in 2012 to 110k last year and now it's only 83k - I have no loans, loads of savings, a permanent job and I know I would be well able to make the repayments for 120k - so fed up with this

Does anybody have their mortgage with Ulster Bank - are they giving mortgages at the moment?

Ush1

leahyl wrote: »

Absolutely and utterly crestfallen, was in contact with bank again as I'm looking at houses again so want to have approval in place for if/when I find a property - they can now only offer me 83k....so from 138k in 2012 to 110k last year and now it's only 83k - I have no loans, loads of savings, a permanent job and I know I would be well able to make the repayments for 120k - so fed up with this

Does anybody have their mortgage with Ulster Bank - are they giving mortgages at the moment?

Yes I got my mortgage with UB.

They initially offered me a mortgage of a certain amount and when I had a bid accepted on a house they said they can only offer me a good amount less than the original sum. I was furious. I ended up having to get a loan from family to make up the rest.

GavMan

leahyl wrote: »

Absolutely and utterly crestfallen, was in contact with bank again as I'm looking at houses again so want to have approval in place for if/when I find a property - they can now only offer me 83k....so from 138k in 2012 to 110k last year and now it's only 83k - I have no loans, loads of savings, a permanent job and I know I would be well able to make the repayments for 120k - so fed up with this

Does anybody have their mortgage with Ulster Bank - are they giving mortgages at the moment?

Contact a good broker

Bateman

Maybe not the place to ask, but how exactly does a broker manage to wrangle vastly more from the bank than you get by applying yourself?

Lived in Fatima myself and thought St Anthony’s Road was very ropey and didn’t like walking up it in the dark. The rest of the area (while you have an awareness it isn’t great) isn’t too bad to be honest. I wouldn’t compare it to Stoneybatter though, it’s not remotely comparable. I live near Stoneybatter now and the “bohemian” vibe, for want of a better word, that people are on about, does exist there. What do you have in Rialto? The Bird Flanagan, a French bakery, a [admittedly decent] butchers and a Centra?

leahyl

Bateman wrote: »

Maybe not the place to ask, but how exactly does a broker manage to wrangle vastly more from the bank than you get by applying yourself?

This is what I'd like to know,

gaius c

Bateman wrote: »

Maybe not the place to ask, but how exactly does a broker manage to wrangle vastly more from the bank than you get by applying yourself?

Lived in Fatima myself and thought St Anthony’s Road was very ropey and didn’t like walking up it in the dark. The rest of the area (while you have an awareness it isn’t great) isn’t too bad to be honest. I wouldn’t compare it to Stoneybatter though, it’s not remotely comparable. I live near Stoneybatter now and the “bohemian” vibe, for want of a better word, that people are on about, does exist there. What do you have in Rialto? The Bird Flanagan, a French bakery, a [admittedly decent] butchers and a Centra?

The "Bohemian vibe" (god I feel stupid even saying that) is more towards Kilmainham, where you have the Jail, IMMA, the Royal Oak, Thomas St with NCAD and some parts of the Liberties with antique funiture boot sales & the like.

levi

Bepolite wrote: »

Absolutely and utterly mental!

Seriously - if other property does this I'm riding this one out. Not a chance I'd pay 270K for that place. I'll find a nice 2 bed apartment somewhere and live mortgage free.

Just heard through the grapevine that this is at 290k - MENTAL - defo not worth that, it's still a 2 bed house ffs

gmisk

Er that is a ridiulous price.....imo

Bepolite

EA must just turn up to viewings with a permanent boner.

That is absolutely mad money.

lima

Don't give in - this will pass