Are things genuinely tigering up again?

Sh1tbag OToole

Brick boxes getting more expensive, particularly in Dublin

Jobless numbers down slightly

Enda has successfully put the huge national debt on the long finger for the next century or so.

Is this just a temporary halt before the country slides further into oblivion or are things actually looking up for once and not the usual "turned a corner, soft landing, green shoots of recovery" bullsiht we have been hearing about since 2008?

Shall we have the AH beers in Cafe en Seine instead? Should I pack up my job, buy a house, power wash it and sell it for €10,000 more than I paid for it next week?

tommyboy2222

If you don't get on the ladder now you never will

Dravokivich

Mandatory atari option

Just because some people are trying to squeeze as much as they can from our pockets, doesn't mean we've more in there to be handed out.

Mint Aero

No

I can feel it in me waters Sh1tbag. Next economic collapse will be 2030. Time to partahy again :cool:

Oregano_State

Mandatory atari option

You can't go wrong with land.

Corvo

Mandatory atari option

I'd liken it more to a car hanging off the end of a cliff, balancing ever so slightly with all of us in it staring wide eyed at each other, begging it not to fall

Ted_YNWA

Is the fact that the jobless have fallen not down to half the country Fecked off?

Cee-Jay-Cee

No

WoooHoooo...can't wait for the return of 110% mortgages and freely available money!!

mikom

Sh1tbag OToole wrote: »

Are things genuinely tigering up again?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKY2O4KFmMU

_Redzer_

Is tigering a word? I've never heard it before, or even know what it means, but I like it!

keith16

I'm putting my decking tree up early this decking. I normally don't decking until at least the decking of decking but the neighbours have already put up their decking.

I think next year I will trade all my decking up. I am climbing the decking ladder. Bow before me you deckless peasants.

BBDBB

my decking is now tracking your decking..........I have no idea why

statesaver

Mandatory atari option

Quick, everyone get on the property ladder before you can't afford to !!

dxhound2005

Ted_YNWA wrote: »

Is the fact that the jobless have fallen not down to half the country Fecked off?

Not if you look at the actual figures. Unemployment is on the way down but the numbers in work is on the way up and so is the overall labour force. The trend indentified in the 2011 Census of immigration to the country is still continuing and is probably even increasing.

The number of Irish residents who were born outside Ireland continues to increase and stood at 766,770 in 2011 an increase of 25 per cent on 2006, and accounting for 17 per cent of the population.

Dravokivich

Mandatory atari option

statesaver wrote: »

Quick, everyone get on the property ladder before you can't afford to !!

...but what if hypothetically, asking for a mate like *wink* they couldn't afford to get on the property ladder already?

<- for my mate, hypothetically.

coinflip13

No

I doubt it but I really hope it is. Funny how people talk down the boom years, it was absolutely great. No christmas since 2007 has felt like christmas. Most peoples lives are worse than in 2007 or before. Even if you have a bit money to spend you are conscious of your fellow countrymen and women suffering, unlike during the boom when everyone was in great form.

The reason I don't think another boom is on the way is that nowadays people are far too conscious of economics to fall into the mass herd mentality needed for a boom, due to a mixture of the severity of this recession, immense media focus on what led up to it and every aspect of it, and high speed internet to gather information related to the economy, the news, etc.. - in the boom years most people had very foggy vague ideas about economics and an optimism bias whereby bad news events regarding the economy only happened in history or in other countries - now we are all too sharp when it comes to economics and history to allow for a boom to happen in the near future, which is unfortunate. I'd say in 20 years or more it could happen but it will never be as bonkers as the 10 - 12 years up to 2007.

BillyMitchel

Mandatory atari option

Yes it's tigering up againg and we are roaring to go!































Joke lad.. Still not much happening

dxhound2005

coinflip13 wrote: »

I doubt it but I really hope it is. Funny how people talk down the boom years, it was absolutely great. No christmas since 2007 has felt like christmas. Most peoples lives are worse than in 2007 or before. Even if you have a bit money to spend you are conscious of your fellow countrymen and women suffering, unlike during the boom when everyone was in great form.

The reason I don't think another boom is on the way is that nowadays people are far too conscious of economics to fall into the mass herd mentality needed for a boom, due to a mixture of the severity of this recession, immense media focus on what led up to it and every aspect of it, and high speed internet to gather information related to the economy, the news, etc.. - in the boom years most people had very foggy vague ideas about economics and an optimism bias whereby bad news events regarding the economy only happened in history or in other countries - now we are all too sharp when it comes to economics and history to allow for a boom to happen in the near future, which is unfortunate. I'd say in 20 years or more it could happen but it will never be as bonkers as the 10 - 12 years up to 2007.

There was higher unemployment and emigration in the 1980's and 20% mortgage rates. Things were much worse then. But people soon forgot and they will soon forget this time too.

UCDVet

I remain skeptical.....

Ireland is experiencing the highest rates of emigration since the famine (http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Irish-emigrating-at-highest-point-since-Famine

---

3000--leaving-per-month-150565735.html). Last I heard, it was something like a net loss of 3,000 people.

From what I read in the paper and quick Google just now, it seems the 'good news' is just limited to us having fewer unemployed - 'the number of people signing on to the Live Register fell by 3,700 in October'.

I also hear that the gear up to the holiday season often brings in seasonal, part-time and temporary work.

Even if I'm wrong, and things are improving....we've got a long way to go before we'd reach anything I'd consider calling a tiger. From what I understand, the average annual wage has been dropping each year (http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/average-annual-salary-falls-to-40775-213305.html) and I can speak from personal experience when I say taxes have been going up (and new ones being introduced too). My utilities cost more, public transport costs more, groceries are out-pacing inflation here too, health insurance rates are sky-rocketing too.

dxhound2005

The current unemployment rate is not much above the long term average.

From 1983 until 2013, Ireland Unemployment Rate averaged 11.0 Percent reaching an all time high of 17.3 Percent in December of 1985 and a record low of 3.7 Percent in January of 2001.

Even at the height of the tiger there was 4 to 5% on the dole. At a time when hundreds of thousands of workers from abroad were coming here to take up employment. So that would point to about 93% of people who want to work are working now.

KyussBishop

The real crisis is private debt, not public debt - and people don't have the money now, to pay their private debts.

This will end in massive defaults or debt forigiveness, because there is no other way out now, and this will destroy banks balance sheets, and this blowing up will lead to the next part of the economic crisis.

So, if you think it's over or nearly over, look at private debt levels. We're not even close to really turning the corner.

dxhound2005

KyussBishop wrote: »

The real crisis is private debt, not public debt - and people don't have the money now, to pay their private debts.

This will end in massive defaults or debt forigiveness, because there is no other way out now, and this will destroy banks balance sheets, and this blowing up will lead to the next part of the economic crisis.

So, if you think it's over or nearly over, look at private debt levels. We're not even close to really turning the corner.

Not the same for everyone. In fact we have one of the highest savings ratios in Europe. €91 billion on deposit with the banks from private individuals and about €17 billion in State Savings.

Montroseee

KyussBishop wrote: »

The real crisis is private debt, not public debt - and people don't have the money now, to pay their private debts.

This will end in massive defaults or debt forigiveness, because there is no other way out now, and this will destroy banks balance sheets, and this blowing up will lead to the next part of the economic crisis.

So, if you think it's over or nearly over, look at private debt levels. We're not even close to really turning the corner.

The banks have been given tens of billions to cover their losses in private debt.

downonthefarm

maybe in Dublin it is the rest of the country is bolloxed

KyussBishop

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Not the same for everyone. In fact we have one of the highest savings ratios in Europe. €91 billion on deposit with the banks from private individuals and about €17 billion in State Savings.

The rate of savings is irrelevant to the private debt problem - the people holding that debt, don't have those savings, so that changes nothing.

We have the highest level (or close to it) of private debt per capita in Europe.

Cd_doe

Unemployment numbers are not really down...

The government just muddied the water, disguising the figures so it looks like not as many people are claiming the dole...
For example there's tons of people doing these bull$hit courses just to give them a meaning in life...
They are still getting the 188 per week. It's just no longer counted as somebody claiming job seekers allowance...

Unless somebody is working for a wage that's at least the minimum wage, it doesn't count, in my opinion

KyussBishop

Montroseee wrote: »

The banks have been given tens of billions to cover their losses in private debt.

Private debt runs up into hundreds of billions - if a portion of that blows up there will be more bailouts, and possibly bail-ins now that the precedent in Cyprus has set in.

tayto lover

Mandatory atari option

dxhound2005 wrote: »

There was higher unemployment and emigration in the 1980's and 20% mortgage rates. Things were much worse then. But people soon forgot and they will soon forget this time too.

Hardly likely.
The current figures are lies designed to fool us again.
Emigration, JobBridge etc just massaging the unemployment figures.
More austerity budgets will be sprung on us in time. Just wait and see.
They are fooling nobody.

donegal__road

Unemployment figures down since the introduction of Jobridge.

dxhound2005

Not much of a massaging exercise since there are only about 20,000 Jobbridge placements out of a workforce of 2.1 million. And there must be as much immigration as there is emigration. Plenty of shop jobs for East Europeans.

For Forks Sake

Oregano_State wrote: »

You can't go wrong with land.

Lard? BUY LARD PEOPLE!!!

Sheldons Brain

Its Boom Boom time

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-h9kNPsOwYM

catallus

Don't be silly. Ya can't buy people! Even if they are made of lard!!!!

trashcan

catallus wrote: »

Don't be silly. Ya can't buy people! Even if they are made of lard!!!!

Uuuuuuummmmmm.....lard people (in a Homer Simpson voice!):)

foxyboxer

Wait for the "This time is different" merchants to come along.

Skepticism in economic issues would be a healthy thing for us to have. At the moment though, if someone 10 years ago decided to forego buying a house and they saved the difference between renting and a potential mortgage they could likely afford somewhere now without a mortgage. Rent prices in Dublin are mental, being a cash buyer now would be pretty sweet.
Things from where I am seemed to start improving around the start of last year. Some people ****ed off after college, most stayed and are working in the field they studied in in college. Things are still ****e compared to what they were promised when they were starting college but few of them are considering going to mainland Europe for a while when they hear the financial realities from the ones who did leave.

foxyboxer

Fill up your boots with bank shares!!

Ruu

Mandatory atari option

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTMA5og-Wwo

catallus

foxyboxer wrote: »

Wait for the "This time is different" merchants to come along.

This kind of negativity is just the kind of loose talk that could be bad for the new gravy train! Down with this sort of thing!

It is so obvious that now is the time to buy everything!! Of course it is different it's like a different year and everything??? It's the economy!!! Stupid?

foxyboxer

foxyboxer wrote: »

Wait for the "This time is different" merchants to come along.

Yeah because the only 2 possibilities are recession or 5% inflation and 10% increases in property prices.
Good point.

WoollyRedHat

I dunno, I heard they're getting a shipment of Caspian tigers to Dublin Zoo this weekend though.

Ulysses Gaze

Mandatory atari option

Sh1tbag OToole wrote: »

Brick boxes getting more expensive, particularly in Dublin

Jobless numbers down slightly

Enda has successfully put the huge national debt on the long finger for the next century or so.

Is this just a temporary halt before the country slides further into oblivion or are things actually looking up for once and not the usual "turned a corner, soft landing, green shoots of recovery" bullsiht we have been hearing about since 2008?

Shall we have the AH beers in Cafe en Seine instead? Should I pack up my job, buy a house, power wash it and sell it for €10,000 more than I paid for it next week?

Buy a house? Why not buy 10? Sure property values only go one way and that is up.

If you buy 10, you'll be on a rocket-ride to the moon! And while you're there, would you pick up some of that nice, green moon money for me?

camel jockey

What is a 'brick box'?

catallus

It's a box, made of brick.

Frynge

catallus wrote: »

It's a box, made of brick.

Very informative

catallus

Frynge wrote: »

Very informative

And concise. You forgot to say concise.

Anyway it occurred to me at about half nine that if they raise interest rates by even a quarter of a percent I am actually literally fcuked, so I went to the offie, and things are improving ever so slightly

catallus

catallus wrote: »

Anyway it occurred to me at about half nine that if they raise interest rates by even a quarter of a percent I am actually literally fcuked

Jaysus they were offering some mad deals on mortgages so

force eleven

Mandatory atari option

Where I am, it's still 2009, and the tumbleweed is drifting by. Dublin is getting all the jobs, all the infrastructural projects and all the inward investment. Rest of the country is going a different direction. There will be a severe imbalance in the next five years between the eastern fringe and the rest of us. Stress on property supply, water resources and jobs. Oh, and we need to leave the Euro, as soon as we can.

Janedoe10

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This part 'the number of people signing on to the Live Register fell by 3,700 in October'. Is the gov massaging the figures /patting themselves on back as we skip out of the "bailout emergency"

They have admitted the internships are considered employed so that prog is skewing the numbers..

Aestivalis

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Not a chance. This country wont be right for years. I cant see anything getting better for 5-10 years AT LEAST.
Unemployment figures are actualyl much much higher than the government says they are. its way above 20% thats for sure.

moxin

Mandatory atari option

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Not much of a massaging exercise since there are only about 20,000 Jobbridge placements out of a workforce of 2.1 million. And there must be as much immigration as there is emigration. Plenty of shop jobs for East Europeans.

Someone just said Jobbridge are counted in the employment figures, i'm not sure.

Anyway, ain't emigration still higher than immigration? They're talking about the year Apr 2012-Apr 2013 in the following http://www.irishtimes.com/blogs/generationemigration/2013/08/29/more-than-50000-irish-emigrated-during-2012/

The number of people emigrating from Ireland continues to rise as 89,000 people left the State in the year to April, an increase of 2.2 per cent on the previous 12 months.Figures published today by the Central Statistics Office show 50,900 Irish people emigrated in the period, up from 46,500 last year.

The number of people immigrating also increased by 6 per cent from 52,700 to 55,900, the highest figure since 2009 when 73,700 people moved here from other countries.