Fourth Annual Boards winter forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

This is somewhat more speculative, but if we don't see much cold weather or snow before the end of the winter forecast season (April 15) and also assuming that Feb precip will be scored from highest to lowest, as would seasonal precip, then the provisional scoring would then look like this, with only Feb temps and seasonal temps not given provisional or final scores (those are highlighted in bold type for clarity):

FORECASTER ______ IMT D.J.F.mean ___ PRC D.J.F.mean ___ MAX __ MIN __ SNOW _ MAX GUST __ TOTAL

JPmarn ___________ 5.0_1.5_5.2 _ 6.4 __5.0_4.5_1.0_13.0___ 8.0 _ 5.5 __ 5.0 ___ 10.0 ____ 58.5

Strasser __________ 5.0_5.0_5.9 _ 6.1 __ 1.0_4.5_4.5_ 11.0___ 3.0 _ 7.5__ 8.5 ___4.0 _____ 54

force eleven _______ 3.0_2.0_5.9 _ 5.9 __5.0_5.0_5.0_15.0___ 2.0 _10.0__ 3.5___ 6.5 _____ 57

Pauldry ___________ 4.5_5.0_5.2 _ 5.7 __4.5_3.5_2.5_ 9.0____ 3.5 _ 2.0 __ 8.0 ___ 3.5 _____46

westmidlands ______ 3.5_5.0_5.3 _ 5.4 __4.5_3.5_3.5_12.0 ___ 5.0 _ 7.0 __10.0 ___ 7.5 _____61.5

omicron ___________3.0_5.0_5.3 _ 5.4 __4.0_3.0_3.5_11.0 ___ 9.0 _ 7.0 __ 6.0 ___ 6.5 _____ 58

Lumi _____________ 3.5_3.5_4.9 _ 5.2 __ 3.5_1.5_1.5_ 1.5____ 8.0 _ 4.5 __ 2.0___7.5 _____ 37

M.T. Cranium ______ 4.0_1.0_5.1 _ 5.1 __ 0.5_0.5_2.5_ 0.5____ 8.0 _ 7.0 __ 5.0___ 6.5 _____ 35.5

talkabout _________ 3.5_2.0_5.1 _ 5.1 ___ 3.5_1.5_ 2.5_ 3.5____ 2.0 _ 2.5__ 7.5 ___ 6.5 _____ 35

traecy.1 __________ 3.0_5.0_4.5 _ 5.1 ___ 3.5_4.5_0.5_ 2.0____10.0 _ 8.5__ 9.5 ___ 1.5 _____ 48


Consensus ________ 3.5_3.5_5.0 _ 5.2 ___ 1.0_3.0_3.0_ 3.5____6.0 _ 5.0___ 5.0___ 6.5 _____ 40


DOCARCH ________ 2.0_3.5_5.1 _ 5.1 ___ 2.0_2.0_4.0_ 6.0____ 6.0 _ 5.0__ 2.5___ 2.5 _____ 35.5

waterways ________1.5_5.0_4.9 _ 5.1 ___ 2.5_3.0_2.0_ 3.5____ 9.0 _ 4.0___ 8.0 ___ 4.5 _____ 43

cdev _____________ 4.5_0.5_4.9 _ 5.0 ___ 0.5_2.5_ 3.0_ 2.5____ 8.0 _ 2.0__ 5.0___ 9.0 _____ 37.5

rameire ___________2.0_3.5_4.8 _ 5.0 ___ 1.5_2.5_4.5_ 8.0____ 6.0 _ 4.0 __ 6.0 ___ 0.5 _____ 38.5

rikand ____________ 2.0_2.5_4.8 _ 5.0 ___4.0_1.5_2.5_ 5.0____10.0 _ 3.0 ___ 9.0 ___10.0 ____ 49.5

dasa29 ___________ 1.0_3.5_5.0 _ 5.0 ___ 3.5__1.0_3.5_ 3.5____ 0.5 _ 2.0__ 3.0___ 3.5 _____ 25

Bsal ______________ 4.0_2.0_4.2 _ 4.9 ___ 1.5_1.5_ 4.0_ 8.0____ 3.0 _ 8.0 __ 6.5 ___ 2.0 _____40.5

snowstreams _______ 0.5_3.5_5.2 _ 4.9 ___ 2.5_4.5_5.0 _14.0___ 4.5 _ 9.5__ 7.0 __ 1.0 _____ 52

dacogawa _________ 1.0_1.0_4.7 _ 4.7 ___ 1.0 _4.5_2.5_ 5.0___ 1.0 _ 0.5__ 1.0___ 9.0 _____ 26.5

MiNdGaM3 ________ 0.5_0.5_3.2 _ 3.5 ___ 3.5_0.5_1.0_ 1.0____ 4.5 _ 1.0__ 0.5___ 9.0 _____ 22

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Notes:

1. In working on this table, I discovered that the consensus MIN was not entered correctly, it should have read -8.5, not -7.2

2. Snowfall was arbitrarily set at 3.0 cm, if it stays even lower than that, some of the high scores would trade 0.5 to 1.0 points.

3. Actual minimum so far is milder than any forecast, if that changes, some of the scores would change.

The precip scores are almost carved in stone as Feb is almost guaranteed to surpass the wettest forecast.

M.T. Cranium

Provisional Final Scoring
_______________________________

We now have the IMT for February (5.5 C) which gives a seasonal IMT of 5.9 and the Feb precip which will be within a few percentage points of 220%, far above any of the forecasts and high enough to guarantee that the seasonal average will also be well above the range of forecasts at around 170-180 per cent (the Feb and seasonal precip were already scored in mid-Feb) so this makes the final scoring fairly easy, anyway (scores are based on rank order in this contest). I could also say that the minimum so far is higher (milder) than any of the forecasts at --4.6, so unless that changes, and some snow falls at Casement, these would be the provisional final scores.

I will update this if anything changes, or confirm after the contest period ends on April 15th. Check the partial scoring posts above for other details that were used to generate scores, for example, the 86 kt wind gust on 12 Feb.

FORECASTER ______ IMT D.J.F.mean ___ PRC D.J.F.mean ___ MAX __ MIN __ SNOW _ MAX GUST __ TOTAL
_________________________________________________________

westmidlands ______ 3.5_5.0_5.0_12.0__4.5_3.5_3.5_12.0___ 5.0 _ 7.0 __10.0 ___ 7.5 _____78.5

force eleven _______ 3.0_2.0_4.0_15.0__5.0_5.0_5.0_15.0___ 2.0 _10.0__ 3.5___ 6.5 _____ 76

JPmarn ___________ 5.0_1.5_4.5 _12.0__5.0_4.5_1.0_13.0___ 8.0 _ 5.5 __ 5.0 ___ 10.0 ____ 75

omicron ___________3.0_5.0_5.0_12.0__4.0_3.0_3.5_11.0 ___ 9.0 _ 7.0 __ 6.0 ___ 6.5 _____ 75

Strasser __________ 5.0_5.0_4.0 _14.0__ 1.0_4.5_4.5_ 11.0___ 3.0 _ 7.5__ 8.5 ___4.0 _____ 72

Pauldry ___________ 4.5_5.0_4.5_14.0__4.5_3.5_2.5_ 9.0____ 3.5 _ 2.0 __ 8.0 ___ 3.5 _____64.5

traecy.1 __________ 3.0_5.0_2.5_ 9.0___ 3.5_4.5_0.5_ 2.0____10.0 _ 8.5__ 9.5 ___ 1.5 _____ 59.5

snowstreams _______ 0.5_3.5_4.5 _ 2.0___ 2.5_4.5_5.0 _14.0___ 4.5 _ 9.5__ 7.0 __ 1.0 _____ 58.5

rikand ____________ 2.0_2.5_2.5_ 4.0___4.0_1.5_2.5_ 5.0____10.0 _ 3.0 ___ 9.0 ___10.0 ____ 56

waterways ________1.5_5.0_3.0_ 9.0___ 2.5_3.0_2.0_ 3.5____ 9.0 _ 4.0___ 8.0 ___ 4.5 _____ 55




Consensus ________ 3.5_3.5_3.0_10.0___ 1.0_3.0_3.0_ 3.5____6.0 _ 5.0___ 5.0___ 6.5 _____ 53


Lumi _____________ 3.5_3.5_3.0_10.0__ 3.5_1.5_1.5_ 1.5____ 8.0 _ 4.5 __ 2.0___7.5 _____ 50

M.T. Cranium ______ 4.0_1.0_4.0_ 9.0__ 0.5_0.5_2.5_ 0.5____ 8.0 _ 7.0 __ 5.0___ 6.5 _____ 48.5

DOCARCH ________ 2.0_3.5_4.0_ 9.0___ 2.0_2.0_4.0_ 6.0____ 6.0 _ 5.0__ 2.5___ 2.5 _____ 48.5

talkabout _________ 3.5_2.0_4.0_ 9.0___ 3.5_1.5_ 2.5_ 3.5____ 2.0 _ 2.5__ 7.5 ___ 6.5 _____ 48

rameire ___________2.0_3.5_2.5_ 4.0___ 1.5_2.5_4.5_ 8.0____ 6.0 _ 4.0 __ 6.0 ___ 0.5 _____ 45

cdev _____________ 4.5_0.5_3.0_ 4.0___ 0.5_2.5_ 3.0_ 2.5____ 8.0 _ 2.0__ 5.0___ 9.0 _____ 44.5

Bsal _____________ 4.0_2.0_1.0_ 2.0___ 1.5_1.5_ 4.0_ 8.0____ 3.0 _ 8.0 __ 6.5 ___ 2.0 _____43.5

dasa29 ___________ 1.0_3.5_3.0_ 4.0___ 3.5__1.0_3.5_ 3.5____ 0.5 _ 2.0__ 3.0___ 3.5 _____ 32

dacogawa _________ 1.0_1.0_2.0_ 1.0___ 1.0 _4.5_2.5_ 5.0___ 1.0 _ 0.5__ 1.0___ 9.0 _____ 29.5

MiNdGaM3 ________ 0.5_0.5_0.5_ 0.5___ 3.5_0.5_1.0_ 1.0____ 4.5 _ 1.0__ 0.5___ 9.0 _____ 23
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Close at the top, so I won't comment on the outcome until we have those final issues resolved. Last year we saw the coldest temperature in mid-March. It is always possible for 10-15 cm snow to fall even on one day well into April, so the contest is by no means settled yet.

M.T. Cranium

The winter forecast contest period is now over, no further snowfall or colder minimum temperature occurred, so the above table is now the FINAL SCORING report.

Congrats westmidlands, check your p.m. box.

Watch for the summer forecast contest announcement in May, and otherwise see you next winter for the next winter contest, I hope.

Rikand

max temp and max gust and almost the snow - thats enough for me

Congrats westmidlands

thanks for running MT