House Prices in Dublin South

ted1

D3PO wrote: »

you cant see that clearly. You cant base an increase on just one house 50 bayview drive.

What your saying is absolutely ridiculous. Your only short of saying house prices in this estate are up 25% between june and august of this year :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Are you honestly telling me you can't see a pattern?

FWIW. I viewed or was in every one of the houses on the list, while some were in slightly better conditon. There is very little difference between them.

I lived in the estate for 3 years, beside it for 3 years previousily and bought in the estate beside it. I've been watching houses in there for the past 7 years i know the market there.

The mean price paid in 2013 is 315,219 compared to 222,571 in 2012.

I'm not making these prices up, there clearly visible on the property price register, you can't deny the evidence.

D3PO

ted1 wrote: »

Are you honestly telling me you can't see a pattern?

.

I didn't say there wasn't a pattern of sale prices going up but to claim house prices have increased 50% in the past year is beyond credible its Ludacris.

You couldn't get the biggest property cheerleader to even join you in your claims.

gaius c

jackal wrote: »

It is notoriously difficult to pick the bottom of a cycle. Even now, nobody can say for sure if 2011 was the bottom, or if the arse will fall out of the market again.

We can only comment on what is happening at the moment and that seems to be that there is huge demand for property is south dublin, there is little supply in the area and this is driving up prices as competition between bidders is the main driving factor behind rising prices. Rationality goes out the window a little bit where more than one party is determined that a property shall be theirs, and they can end up paying way more than what they would have if they were the only bidder and the seller was happy with a reasonable offer. If ALL decent properties for sale now have multiple bidders like that, then its inevitable that prices are only going to continue to rise, unless as you say the supply is increased.

Remember that nobody has been building properties in dublin in any great number and the demand is estimated at something like 10,000 per year, so the supply problem has been there for a while, where as the only thing keeping prices down was buyers were not attempting to buy in any great hurry as prices continued to fall.

The market in 2011 was a very different place. Estate agents were delighted to accommodate viewings whenever suited you, offers at the first viewing were unheard of.. etc. etc. There was a lot of fear about things and where there was a reasonable bid on a property, the other potential buyers jogged on in search of a bargain.

Any consideration given to the fact that much of the property listed as being "for sale" doesn't actually seem to be really "for sale" and that they are only advertised to get banks off their backs?

Or all the trackers/neg eq folk stuck in their properties, unable to move, thus jamming up the entire market?

ted1

D3PO wrote: »

I didn't say there wasn't a pattern of sale prices going up but to claim house prices have increased 50% in the past year is beyond credible its Ludacris.

You couldn't get the biggest property cheerleader to even join you in your claims.

look at the facts from the PPR price have gone up by 50%. Maybe not in all areas, but in a good number of areas. I only slected Bayview as its an area i know.

if you know of other estates that have seen a numeber of places sell, please list the prices and show me other wise.

Heres an estate in ballinter that is shown a 28% increase
28/02/2013 €322,500.00 52 Broadford Park, Ballinteer, Dublin, Dublin 16
03/05/2013 €303,000.00 26 BROADFORD PARK, BALLINTEER, Dublin 16
12/06/2013 €335,000.00 20 Broadford Park, Dundrum, Ballinteer
28/06/2013 €323,000.00 54 Broadford Hill, Ballinteer, Dublin 16, Dublin 16
09/07/2013 €370,000.00 9 Broadford Walk, Ballinteer, Dublin 16
24/07/2013 €312,000.00 92 Broadford Rise, Ballinteer, Dublin 16
22/08/2013 €330,000.00 14 Broadford Drive, Ballinteer, Dublin 16
05/09/2013 €311,000.00 84 broadford drive, ballinteer, dublin 16, Dublin 16
10/09/2013 €307,000.00 64 Broadford Drive, Ballinteer, Dublin 16
average 323,722

20/01/2012 €310,000.00 149 Broadford Rise, Ballinteer, Dublin
24/04/2012 €236,500.00 36 Broadford Park, Ballinteer, Dublin 16, Dublin
11/05/2012 €215,000.00 67 Broadford Lawn, Ballinteer, Dublin
01/06/2012 €220,000.00 40 Broadford Park, Ballinteer, Dublin 16, Dublin
26/06/2012 €267,500.00 42 Broadford Drive, Ballinteer, Dublin, Dublin
02/07/2012 €220,000.00 23 Broadford Close, Ballinteer, Dublin
27/07/2012 €265,000.00 11 Broadford Lawn, Ballinteer, Dublin 16, Dublin
27/08/2012 €290,000.00 24 Broadford Drive, Ballinteer, Dublin 16, Dublin
30/11/2012 €297,000.00 54 Broadford Close, Ballinteer, Dublin 16
average 254,500

I believe house in between the n11 and coast have increased higher as is evident in my bayview comaparasion.

gaius c

ted1 wrote: »

look at the facts from the PPR price have gone up by 50%. Maybe not in all areas, but in a good number of areas. I only slected Bayview as its an area i know.

if you know of other estates that have seen a numeber of places sell, please list the prices and show me other wise.

You're at this "I made a silly claim, now it's up to you to disprove it" circular argument nonsense again?

D3PO

ted1 wrote: »

look at the facts from the PPR price have gone up by 50%. Maybe not in all areas, but in a good number of areas. I only slected Bayview as its an area i know.

if you know of other estates that have seen a numeber of places sell, please list the prices and show me other wise.

Right convince yourself of that based on one idiot paying way over the odds for a house.

Using the sale of 3 houses with one heavily influencing the data and calling it a 50% house price increase is about as helpful as a chocolate teapot.

Scortho

D3PO wrote: »

Right convince yourself of that based on one idiot paying way over the odds for a house.

Using the sale of 3 houses with one heavily influencing the data and calling it a 50% house price increase is about as helpful as a chocolate teapot.

what would add strenght to his claim would be to compare 2012 average price per sq.ft and 2013 and price per sq. ft for the killiney area as a whole.

ted1, I hope now when you were doing your property price valuation that it increased by 50% on the price that you paid for it :cool::pac:

ted1

the three house that sold in 2013 were for
€353,657.00 thats 50% higher than 4 of them
€287,000.00 thats about 50% higher than 1 of them
€305,000.00 thats 50% higher than 2 of the house last year

lets see what happens over the next few months.

ted1

Scortho wrote: »

what would add strenght to his claim would be to compare 2012 average price per sq.ft and 2013 and price per sq. ft for the killiney area as a whole.

ted1, I hope now when you were doing your property price valuation that it increased by 50% on the price that you paid for it :cool::pac:

I honestly don't think price per sq foot is relevant. people often buy becuase of the location, and also a nice garden comes into play. Pricing per sq ft doesn't give true value.
The house I listed are of a similar enough size, all in the same estates. i didn''t make up the prices they are what they are.

Scortho

ted1 wrote: »

I honestly don't think price per sq foot is relevant. people often buy becuase of the location, and also a nice garden comes into play. Pricing per sq ft doesn't give true value.
The house I listed are of a similar enough size, all in the same estates. i didn''t make up the prices they are what they are.

Price per sq ft is the best way to gauge % gains and falls for an area.
When you do it for an area, you get to se the true rise, as opposed to 3 transactions.
Those 3 transactions could be outliers and while i'm not disputing that prices have risen, Im questioning whether prices have risen in the killiney area by a similar percentage, as they should have.

Likewise in my earlier post I was able to see that the asking price per sq. ft for a house in terenure was signifcantly higher than a house in Donnybrook, when the house in Donnybrook had a lot more going for it.
By using price per sq foot, you can estimate where is better value for money.

ted1

Scortho wrote: »

Price per sq ft is the best way to gauge % gains and falls for an area.
When you do it for an area, you get to se the true rise, as opposed to 3 transactions.
Those 3 transactions could be outliers and while i'm not disputing that prices have risen, Im questioning whether prices have risen in the killiney area by a similar percentage, as they should have.

Likewise in my earlier post I was able to see that the asking price per sq. ft for a house in terenure was signifcantly higher than a house in Donnybrook, when the house in Donnybrook had a lot more going for it.
By using price per sq foot, you can estimate where is better value for money.

is €100 sq ft better than €150sq ft.
what if the one for €150sq ft has a big garden, in highly sought after area and has great views. I really think its a skewed way of looking at the market.
People i know who look for houses, look for a house in the area they want, they then make sure theres a good garden, then they look at the house.

also can you really take an whole area. especially for places like Killiney where houses can go for several million. that'll really skew results. you need to group the houses in to groups so you can do like for like comparasion.

Cold Sore

Scortho wrote: »

Price per sq ft is the best way to gauge % gains and falls for an area.
When you do it for an area, you get to se the true rise, as opposed to 3 transactions.
Those 3 transactions could be outliers and while i'm not disputing that prices have risen, Im questioning whether prices have risen in the killiney area by a similar percentage, as they should have.

Likewise in my earlier post I was able to see that the asking price per sq. ft for a house in terenure was signifcantly higher than a house in Donnybrook, when the house in Donnybrook had a lot more going for it.
By using price per sq foot, you can estimate where is better value for money.

The house in Donnybrook has a flat in the basement. It has probably been used as a home and income or an investment property. The house is going to auction so the AMV will likely be well below the final selling price. The Rathfarnham house is an asking price and may well be negotiated down. Also note that its has been extensively updated with an en-suite etc.

The Donny brook house is also 700 sq ft bigger and as houses get over 2000 sq ft the value of each sq foot tends to diminish. Running costs are significantly higher as insurance has to be paid per sq ft and maintenance and heating are all more expensive and most people would not use all the space.

Cuddlesworth

Knowing the area, Bayview is a perfect example of the sought after south Dublin Estate. Its not completely out of price range of the middle class and in the typical Irish estate sense, their is very little difference between them.

I think you can't really argue against a obvious panic recently by cash rich buyers that think they missed their chance. Ignoring the huge, still unsolved arrears problem and crippled banks.

Ted, hope you bought in Seafield. I'd rate that estate as the best place I've ever lived in and I have lived in a lot of nice places. I'd go back there in a heartbeat if I could.

Scortho

ted1 wrote: »

is €100 sq ft better than €150sq ft.
what if the one for €150sq ft has a big garden, in highly sought after area and has great views. I really think its a skewed way of looking at the market.
People i know who look for houses, look for a house in the area they want, they then make sure theres a good garden, then they look at the house.

also can you really take an whole area. especially for places like Killiney where houses can go for several million. that'll really skew results. you need to group the houses in to groups so you can do like for like comparasion.

No it doesnt take into account size of garden or aspect etc. However if I'm comparing lets say price per sq ft between dalkey and bray and I find that the average price per sq. ft in Dalkey is less than that of Bray, trust me Ill be looking at Dalkey.

Likewise when I sat down to read some of yesterdays property porn in the Times at breakfast this morning and noticed that a house that was
A) bigger
in a nicer area
C) had intact period features,
was cheaper per sq. ft. than a smaller house on the rathfarnham road.

Would that convince me to stump up an extra 200k for the house in Donnybrook.
Feck no. However it would really make me question whether the asking for the house on the rathfarnham road was close to asking.
DOnt get me wrong, I love rathfarnham and the area around it, but its no Donnybrook.

Big houses anywhere will skew the average, however their should be enough smaller houses being sold in the area to counteract.

For example if 1 house that is 10,000 sq ft sells for 5 million in killiney, then the average price per sq. ft is 500 euro per sq foot.
if 100 houses sell in killiney at 315,219 (average of the 3 in your example from 2013 sales) and each are 1200 sq ft and we add in the house that sold for 5 million
We get an average price per sq ft. of 280.93 as opposed to 262.68 if we take out the 5 million euro home.

There isnt that many houses that are selling for 5 million in all of dublin at the moment. According to myhome.ie theres 3 so you shouldnt have too many outliers.

Or you could get the price per sq. ft. of all 3 beds in killiney (you can rule out the estates that claim to be killiney but are actually ballybrack) and see what it compares to the 50% gains in the year. Id be guessing its around 10.

Scortho

Cold Sore wrote: »

The house in Donnybrook has a flat in the basement. It has probably been used as a home and income or an investment property. The house is going to auction so the AMV will likely be well below the final selling price. The Rathfarnham house is an asking price and may well be negotiated down. Also note that its has been extensively updated with an en-suite etc.

The Donny brook house is also 700 sq ft bigger and as houses get over 2000 sq ft the value of each sq foot tends to diminish. Running costs are significantly higher as insurance has to be paid per sq ft and maintenance and heating are all more expensive and most people would not use all the space.

The house in Donnybrook has a flat alright which could generate income if you so wished.
at the end of the day and i said this in my original post on the two, the house in rathfarnham is in better condition, but its not in D4 which should still have a higher price per sq. ft. While its going for auction at an amv of 1.1 million, it can still be sold prior to auction. at 1.1 million I think its reasonably priced but even at that it could still fail to sell.

Cold Sore

Scortho wrote: »

The house in Donnybrook has a flat alright which could generate income if you so wished.
at the end of the day and i said this in my original post on the two, the house in rathfarnham is in better condition, but its not in D4 which should still have a higher price per sq. ft. While its going for auction at an amv of 1.1 million, it can still be sold prior to auction. at 1.1 million I think its reasonably priced but even at that it could still fail to sell.

The flat is not an addition for valuing purposes. Most likely it was put in years ago and will have to be removed and the basement damp-proofed.The income option will not appeal to potential buyers.
The flat will mean that there are two dwellings for household taxes and will cause CGT complications on a sale. If they can afford over 1m plus renovation costs and stamp duty they will not wish to have their privacy disturbed by tenants in the house particularly when there would have to be an investment mortgage and landlord house insurance.
By the time the Donnybrook house has been brought up to the standard of the Rathfarnham house the price per square foot comparison will look a lot different.

jackal

ted1 wrote: »

what i meant was that in spring/summer 2012 houses in SoCoDu where sellign for belwo the asking price. and now the market has picked up and they are going foe above the askign price. so really they should have bought last year.

as regards 50% increase over 17 months. its purely down to them been serious undervalued in 2012. There was aboout 10 houses I was looking at in killiney all 3 bed semi D's that sold for between 190 and 250. Houses in the estate are now making 300+


Heres some examples from the property price register. these houses are all the same an in th esame estate. you can clearly see that the 2013 prices are up 50% on the 2012 prices

26/08/2013 €353,657.00 50 Bayview Drive, Killiney
17/06/2013 €287,000.00 6 Bayview Rise, Killiney
11/02/2013 €305,000.00 5 Bayview Green, Killiney
27/09/2012 €240,000.00 24 BAYVIEW CRESCENT, killiney, Dublin
10/09/2012 €222,000.00 6 Bayview Lawns, Killiney, Co. Dublin
21/08/2012 €197,500.00 1 Bayview Crescent, Killiney, Dublin
17/08/2012 €230,000.00 15 Bayview Close, Killiney, Co. Dublin, Dublin
23/07/2012 €207,500.00 10 Bayview Crescent, Killiney, Co Dublin, Dublin
24/07/2012 €210,000.00 40 Baywiew Lawns, Killiney, Dublin
17/07/2012 €251,000.00 17 Bayview Park, Killiney, Dublin

Lets go back a little further and have a look at the the trend:

ted1

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Knowing the area, Bayview is a perfect example of the sought after south Dublin Estate. Its not completely out of price range of the middle class and in the typical Irish estate sense, their is very little difference between them.

I think you can't really argue against a obvious panic recently by cash rich buyers that think they missed their chance. Ignoring the huge, still unsolved arrears problem and crippled banks.

Ted, hope you bought in Seafield. I'd rate that estate as the best place I've ever lived in and I have lived in a lot of nice places. I'd go back there in a heartbeat if I could.

I did indeed.

EricPraline

Scortho wrote: »

Big houses anywhere will skew the average, however their should be enough smaller houses being sold in the area to counteract.

I think this is where both sides of the argument break down right now - small sample sizes due to such low volumes of sales. So while predicting trends based on a half dozens sales in the Price Register is dubious, calculating average price per square foot based on a few houses for sale on Myhome can also be quite misleading.

With such small volumes, there are likely to be other aspects of properties that will certainly skew the average in certain areas. For example, a large garden with a good aspect might lead to higher prices in Mount Merrion, while off-street parking appears to be a major factor in Ranelagh or Rathgar. Neither is taken into account by price per sqft.

Mustard1972

Scortho wrote: »

The scd market is acting very weirdly at the moment. Well thats how it appears to me.
I aint gonna deny that prices have risen, however the rises in some areas are different to the rises in others.
Personally i think we should be seeing gradual rises from here on out provided two factors remain the same.
That is supply of houses remain at there current level, and the number of people getting mortgages, along with the value of those mortgages remain the same. If the value and number of people getting mortgages increases, while supply remains at its current level then we'll end up with a stronger than expected rise and the opposite can be expected if supply increases while mortgage lending tightens up.

Anyhow time for some anomalies/shocking gains/me being confused.

Lets take these three houses on Barton Road in Rathfarnham, a nice area close to st enda's Park and Marley Park with good schools nearby.
The first two sold in 2012 for an average of €268750
The third house sold in 2013 for €355,000.

Number 35 sold for 265,000
https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-B95778B8CB22AFC380257A7D0057DB90?OpenDocument

number 19 sold for €272500.
https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-B95778B8CB22AFC380257A7D0057DB90?OpenDocument

Number 8 sold for €355,000
https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-055FD64B4CD4DC0780257BE4003B90CF?OpenDocument

thats a price difference of 32%. That either suggests that house prices in rathfarnham were seriously undervalued in 2012, or we're entering possible bubble territory gains/dead cat bounce with those rises.

the three houses are the same size and were in similar condition inside, all three needed to refurbished.
As an example this here is no. 8. it aint exactly in walk in condition and the other two were in a similar state so that doesnt explain the difference.
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-barton-road-rathfarnham-dublin-14/2413669

In fact no. 19 and no. 35 have south facing rear gardens, while no. 8 has a north facing rear garden which gets very little sun. In a normal market, no. 8 should be selling for around a similar price to what no. 19 and 35 sold for last year, as its not as desirable. All three gardens are roughly the same size as well.

An even stranger example is that rathfarnham road in D6w is now more expensive than the more desirable and upmarket Marlborough Road in Donnybrook.

Here is the house at 96 rathfarnham road, asking 975,000 or €455 per sq. ft.
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/96-rathfarnham-road-terenure-dublin-6w/2645732

Here is the house on Marlborough Road in Donnybrook with an AMV of 1.1 million or €405.90 per sq.ft
http://www.lisney.com/Residential/94-Marlborough-Road-Donnybrook-Dublin-4.aspx

While no. 94 isnt finished to the same standard as 96, its a period redbrick, with period features intact, with off street parking and closer to the city centre in what should be a more sought after area.
For 94 to command the same price per sq.ft as 96 rathfarnham road, it would need to sell at auction for 1.23 million at auction. However they are willing to sell before auction according to the agent. Even at that price, is rathfarnham road, worth the same amount per sq. foot as Donnybrook?
I dont think so.

Although the house looks crap on the outside (with a bit of exterior modification, could be made into a very nice house on an amazing site). Failed to sell at auction, no bids, which I was surprised at considering what the same agent is asking for the rathfarnham road house.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/greenwood-95-ballytore-road-rathfarnham-dublin-14/2626030

One persons opinion from afar.
Obviously those who bought the houses have different opinions, after having a much closer look at them than anyone else on here.

Horrid Henry

gaius c wrote: »

Without meaning to personalise this but it's a common enough thing right now as it was during the bubble, that being the trend for the most recent entrants to the market to be the ones loudest in telling those not yet on the "ladder" that they missed their chance.

50% price rises in the space of 17 months (even if true/plausible) isn't remotely sustainable.

It is if the price in May 2012 was artificially low.

It's becoming clear that there was an overcorrection in South Dublin.

There is a serious lack of supply, nothing really being built and it's where virtually all of the well paid jobs are.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see a tsunami of buyers coming from negative equity apartments in the coming years. I personally know quite a few couples with good jobs who are "stuck" in unsuitable apartments but who are saving at a rate of knots. The amount of deleveraging that's going on is incredible (no wonder retail is on its knees).

The_Conductor

lima wrote: »

That is very close to Tesco:

https://maps.google.ie/maps?saddr=seafield,+killiney,+dublin&daddr=Tesco,+Churchview+Road+Dublin&hl=en&sll=53.248313,-6.11653&sspn=0.007896,0.01929&geocode=FTmBLAMdTqui_yldJkbi7gdnSDEEDuQ3wiCV2w%3BFQKiLAMdMGWi_yH0FmBWq8wy0CmBITWY3wdnSDH0FmBWq8wy0A&mra=ls&t=m&z=15

Careful........

Guys- the atmosphere in here is far from helpful- and I'm blue in the face trying to get people to be civil towards one another. While some people are probably annoyed at my moderating over the last few days- I will have a tougher, no holds barred approach, going forward- because the behaviour of some posters has been nothing short of thuggish.

It really isn't hard to remain civil towards one another- and yes, we will all have differing points of view- its part of what makes life interesting. We don't have to agree with one another all the time- or ever- but we should listen to one another- even if we still disagree, perhaps we may learn a little about where the other person is coming from- and even if we still disagree with their point of view- our interactions with one another educates us.

I'm damn unhappy with how people have been tearing lumps from one another, trolling, unhelpful posting, derailing threads off topic, snobbish behaviour, snide remarks etc etc etc. I am not going to turn the other way.

Santa Cruz

Horrid Henry wrote: »

It is if the price in May 2012 was artificially low.

It's becoming clear that there was an overcorrection in South Dublin.

There is a serious lack of supply, nothing really being built and it's where virtually all of the well paid jobs are.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see a tsunami of buyers coming from negative equity apartments in the coming years. I personally know quite a few couples with good jobs who are "stuck" in unsuitable apartments but who are saving at a rate of knots. The amount of deleveraging that's going on is incredible (no wonder retail is on its knees).

I think that you have summed up the South Dublin situation very well. There are several different property markets all dependant on different factors, local national and economic. South Dublin market stands alone.

Scortho

Mustard1972 wrote: »

One persons opinion from afar.
Obviously those who bought the houses have different opinions, after having a much closer look at them than anyone else on here.

I know that road very very well so I wouldn't say from afar.
The 32% rise in the house price on that road to me doesn't make sense.
I'd understand a 10% rise but 32% considering the 2012 houses have a lot more going for them due to the aspect of the gardens. Size wise they're all the same. Kitchen dining and sitting room downstairs, garage to the side and 3 beds (2 double 1 single) and a bathroom upstairs.

Clearly someone was willing to pay 32% more this year than last year.
But that doesn't mean that the next house sold on the road will sell for 35% more than the 2012 ones. The person who paid 32% more may have overpaid in the eyes of other buyers.

Mustard1972

Scortho wrote: »

I know that road very very well so I wouldn't say from afar.
The 32% rise in the house price on that road to me doesn't make sense.
I'd understand a 10% rise but 32% considering the 2012 houses have a lot more going for them due to the aspect of the gardens. Size wise they're all the same. Kitchen dining and sitting room downstairs, garage to the side and 3 beds (2 double 1 single) and a bathroom upstairs.

Clearly someone was willing to pay 32% more this year than last year.
But that doesn't mean that the next house sold on the road will sell for 35% more than the 2012 ones. The person who paid 32% more may have overpaid in the eyes of other buyers.

So did you visit each house and have a good look around inside and out. And did you get a survey done.

Im thinking no. But I am thinking that the eventual buyers and bidders did go into detail when examining those houses.

Horrid Henry

Mustard1972 wrote: »

So did you visit each house and have a good look around inside and out. And did you get a survey done.

Im thinking no. But I am thinking that the eventual buyers and bidders did go into detail when examining those houses.

He / she clearly knows the area...why are you being so confrontational?

The point's a valid one. The houses are the same size and design so unless there's buried treasure in the one that recently sold, that poster is right to point out the spectacular increase (and to zero in on comparative per square foot valuations elsewhere in South Dublin).

What's your contention...that house prices haven't increased?!

Mustard1972

Horrid Henry wrote: »

He / she clearly knows the area...why are you being so confrontational?

The point's a valid one. The houses are the same size and design so unless there's buried treasure in the one that recently sold, that poster is right to point out the spectacular increase (and to zero in on comparative per square foot valuations elsewhere in South Dublin).

What's your contention...that house prices haven't increased?!

Im not being confrontational.
My point is a valid one. Everybody on here is looking at web links and houses from the outside and then giving their opinion on it as if it is valid.
How do they know that its not family who bought the house. Or if it was sold at a discount for whatever reason for a quick sale. Or if it was a sibling buying their other siblings out of an inherited house and getting a discount. Or if the person that eventually bought it bid higher because mammy lives over the road. Or whatever other peculiarity there are to the sale. They dont and cant know the in-depth story about all of those houses. Even if they lived next door to one of them.

So its only an uninformed opinion and is in no way as anywhere near as valid as the research on a house of a person who eventually buys or bids on it.
Its a problem with message boards in general tbh.

As for my contention you ask .. I have no position on house prices. I can see them going up in general in Dublin at the moment. I can gauge the general mood of those around me and in the media. Beyond that i'm no expert and have no idea where house prices are going to go in the next few years. And neither has anybody posting here. So when everyone gives their amateur opinion, thats all I treat it as.

Cold Sore

Does anyone know if the valuation method one of the agencies began some years ago is still in operation? They took a selection of 43 houses in Dublin and re-valued them every 3 months based on their observations of prices achieved for comparable properties that quarter.
I think this was a reasonable means of tracking price movements based on valuers saying "what would I expect to get for this house if putting it on the market today?"

Ray Palmer

Scortho wrote: »

Clearly someone was willing to pay 32% more this year than last year.
But that doesn't mean that the next house sold on the road will sell for 35% more than the 2012 ones. The person who paid 32% more may have overpaid in the eyes of other buyers.

I think the issue of using one price and saying that is the correct price is the flaw in the thinking. To claim prices have gone up by 32% is actually incorrect. One house sold for 32% more than an other with a year gap from the sales. That is actually what happened. It has no extra meaning about the entire market on that street. It is too simplistic to think that.

Pointing to the most recent price and claiming that is the anomaly is also flawed thinking. Why isn't the lower price the anomaly? When you compare the trend the anomaly looks to be the low price.

If you look at it seems apparent the prices were artificially low. The prices are now adjusting back up they may still go up and down a bit. You could work out all the figures but ultimately it will be a matter of opinion on that data. On such a small sample size you can't accurately project the figures.

Sleepy

I'm not sure how I'd feel about house prices in good areas of Dublin (the right parts of the North side: Clontarf, Howth etc. seem to be the same as SCD). One thing I would feel confident about had I the money would be investing in a development involving 3/4 bed family homes in any of these areas.