House Prices in Dublin South

Jellybean73

Why have EAs increased the house prices in Dublin south by approximately 100,000 in the last few months?
Some houses that have been on the market for ages, now have an increased asking price.
What I find crazy is that there appears to be people out there who are now putting higher offers in, now with the increased asking price.

Yet they could have put in a considerably lower offer a few months back.
Does anybody know why? I'm flaberghasted!
I've gone to some open days recently with a friend of mine and people are putting in exorbitantly high offers.

It makes sense to me that the general buying public should hold back and let the price settle back to where it was, why are some 'idiots' putting in crazy offers? They are pushing up a false price of a house and it becomes overvalued.

It's like a mini property bubble again.

Any suggestions?

gmisk

Jellybean73 wrote: »

It's like a mini property bubble again.

Any suggestions?

Dont pay more than you think a house is worth/you can afford.
Or widen your search area to other more reasonable areas.

lima

Jellybean73 wrote: »

Why have EAs increased the house prices in Dublin south by approximately 100,000 in the last few months?
Some houses that have been on the market for ages, now have an increased asking price.
What I find crazy is that there appears to be people out there who are now putting higher offers in, now with the increased asking price.

Yet they could have put in a considerably lower offer a few months back.
Does anybody know why? I'm flaberghasted!
I've gone to some open days recently with a friend of mine and people are putting in exorbitantly high offers.

It makes sense to me that the general buying public should hold back and let the price settle back to where it was, why are some 'idiots' putting in crazy offers? They are pushing up a false price of a house and it becomes overvalued.

It's like a mini property bubble again.

Any suggestions?

Unfortunately some people are really, really stupid.

Just let them be, it's not worth e100k+ just to live in a 'nice area' - there are tonnes of other nice areas that are not in south Dublin.

There are probably loads of people who have been waiting for prices to hit bottom for the last 5/6 years, imagine 2 public sector workers on e60k each, saving up 30k per year between them, so e180k deposit and e120kx4=480 mortgage approval... they can afford a property up to e660. So prices last year or so were say 380k for a 3br in oh so desired south Dublin. There is a serious amount of wiggle room for prices to reach up to 600-700k very quickly, especially with said couple having baby one or even two on the way, desperate to have their first home as they are hitting 35/36 and their mammies telling them 'rent is dead money, blah blah'

The question is, what will happen when all the 'waiters with deposits' run out? will prices go down again?

Ray Palmer

Jellybean73 wrote: »

It's like a mini property bubble again.

I don't think you know what a bubble is versus prices rising. People seem to be very quick to call any property changes to being a bubble or potential bubble.

House prices are rising in Dublin and more so in South Dublin. Supply is limited and there is no sign of a sudden increase even if you consider repossessions. Maybe you can't afford where you are looking and it is that simple.

D3PO

Jellybean73 wrote: »

Why have EAs increased the house prices in Dublin south by approximately 100,000 in the last few months?

EA's don't increase house prices the market does. Supply and demand very simple.

ted1

Weather you agree or not South Dublin is the most desirable area in the country to live.

It was hit hard over the last few years and houses there where actually undervalued.

What your seen is the true value if the houses. Its supply and demand.

jackal

Jellybean73 wrote: »

Why have EAs increased the house prices in Dublin south by approximately 100,000 in the last few months?
Some houses that have been on the market for ages, now have an increased asking price.
What I find crazy is that there appears to be people out there who are now putting higher offers in, now with the increased asking price.

Yet they could have put in a considerably lower offer a few months back.
Does anybody know why? I'm flaberghasted!
I've gone to some open days recently with a friend of mine and people are putting in exorbitantly high offers.

It makes sense to me that the general buying public should hold back and let the price settle back to where it was, why are some 'idiots' putting in crazy offers? They are pushing up a false price of a house and it becomes overvalued.

It's like a mini property bubble again.

Any suggestions?

It could have something to do with people actually being able to get credit now. While the banks spent the past 2-3 years pretending they were open for business, the past 6 months they actually are approving and allowing mortgages to be drawn down.

I would suggest that this is because the people that either sat out the boom, or cashed out at the right time have now saved quite a bit and the banks are happy to give a mortgage with a good loan-to-value ratio of 70% or less.

Calling people "idiots" is also not particularly clever. Property will go for what the market will pay, not what the EA asks for. Do you just wish all these idiots could go away, so you can prove you are a "genius" and get a nice Carrickmines pad for Crumlin money? If you think its crazy, why did you not put offers in 6 months ago? Was it because you thought the market would always go down? If so, thats just as braindead a mindset as the "property only goes up" one that lead us into the bubble.

Supply is the other factor. It has never been more than a trickle, and nearly exclusively executor sales - so property only comes on the market as the older population literally dies off.

While problem properties in SCD were selling for depressed prices, if an SCD house was "right" - as in close to schools, shops, transport, good garden, no major drawbacks - i.e. a perfect family home it sold no problem, with multiple bidders, even in the worst of it in 2010.

Santa Cruz

lima wrote: »

Unfortunately some people are really, really stupid.

Just let them be, it's not worth e100k+ just to live in a 'nice area' - there are tonnes of other nice areas that are not in south Dublin.

There are probably loads of people who have been waiting for prices to hit bottom for the last 5/6 years, imagine 2 public sector workers on e60k each, saving up 30k per year between them, so e180k deposit and e120kx4=480 mortgage approval... they can afford a property up to e660. So prices last year or so were say 380k for a 3br in oh so desired south Dublin. There is a serious amount of wiggle room for prices to reach up to 600-700k very quickly, especially with said couple having baby one or even two on the way, desperate to have their first home as they are hitting 35/36 and their mammies telling them 'rent is dead money, blah blah'

The question is, what will happen when all the 'waiters with deposits' run out? will prices go down again?

Take the chip off your shoulder. Many people want to live in South Dublin because it has all the facilities, amenities that they seek. It's not a case of a "nice area" If you want a nice area live in Killarney. There is a shortage of family homes in the area and as a result the Laws of Supply and Demand kick in. What good is a big house in a ghost estate in Cavan when your job is in Dublin, kids are going to secondary school and college in Dublin etc.
The highest percentage of third level graduates live in South Dublin so can hardly be called stupid. The stupid ones are the ones who built mansions out in the sticks without any educational, hospital, transport services etc.

jackal

lima wrote: »

Unfortunately some people are really, really stupid.

Just let them be, it's not worth e100k+ just to live in a 'nice area' - there are tonnes of other nice areas that are not in south Dublin.

There are probably loads of people who have been waiting for prices to hit bottom for the last 5/6 years, imagine 2 public sector workers on e60k each, saving up 30k per year between them, so e180k deposit and e120kx4=480 mortgage approval... they can afford a property up to e660. So prices last year or so were say 380k for a 3br in oh so desired south Dublin. There is a serious amount of wiggle room for prices to reach up to 600-700k very quickly, especially with said couple having baby one or even two on the way, desperate to have their first home as they are hitting 35/36 and their mammies telling them 'rent is dead money, blah blah'

The question is, what will happen when all the 'waiters with deposits' run out? will prices go down again?

Yeah just a few problems with your hypothesis there.
1. The banks wont lend 4* a couples combined salary.
2. A public sector couple would have had a serious dent put in their combined wages over the past 5 years so I very much doubt that they would be saving 30k per year between them.
3. I don't think anyone is saying "rent is dead money" any more. But when you are getting on towards 40 years old, you have to think its now or never in terms of paying back a mortgage of 25-30 years, and in all fairness, renting in Ireland sucks - its expensive, its not family freindly, you can be turfed out with no notice if they want to sell and so on.
4. "oh so desired south Dublin" - hah - lots of places experiencing similar rises, try malahide, howth etc. Some areas are rightly or wrongly percieved as better than others and always have been more expensive as a result, get over it. If people want to spend their extra 100k, that's their money and their choice.
5. Supply is at a trickle so that is a huge factor in driving prices up. If there were a glut of properties the rises would be a lot more modest, however, there isn't and this isn't going to change any time soon.

roro2

jackal wrote: »

1. The banks wont lend 4* a couples combined salary.

A lot of sense in the rest of your post, but this is wrong. They will and they are, subject to savings history vs stressed repayments, etc etc.

jackal

roro2 wrote: »

A lot of sense in the rest of your post, but this is wrong. They will and they are, subject to savings history vs stressed repayments, etc etc.

Ok, I stand corrected. I always though it was 3 * first salary + 3 * 0.5 the second salary.

flyguy

Agree with the supply/demand issue. As an example; we live in a South Dublin estate. Prices have dropped from 700k-1.2mil (3bed semi-5bed detached) in boom times (yes crazy money) to 300k-500k. There have always been a few houses of each type on the market at any time. At the moment there's only one (of about 400 houses) for sale and I can't even find it on myhome (that's probably why it's still for sale). Any house that comes on the market in the estate is sold in under 3 months, no surprise really that prices are upwards...

Jellybean73

Ray Palmer wrote: »

I don't think you know what a bubble is versus prices rising. People seem to be very quick to call any property changes to being a bubble or potential bubble.

House prices are rising in Dublin and more so in South Dublin. Supply is limited and there is no sign of a sudden increase even if you consider repossessions. Maybe you can't afford where you are looking and it is that simple.

So where all of the repossessions? Why aren't they on the market?

What I have seen is that it is not a natural increase in price house, it is a manipulated increase in price, because in a number of cases, the price is increased substantially and then each week the EAs are having to reduce them again. Has anyone noticed that on the various house sale websites?

So my question is why are people jumping in now with a high bid when they could wait a few weeks?

It's not about whether being able to afford a house, it's down to being sensible, why blow an extra 100k, sure that could be two new cars......

Idbatterim

even if I inherited a house, unless I had to sell, I probably wouldnt, or certainly wouldnt have contemplated it in south dublin up until very recently if at all...

The Spider

Jellybean73 wrote: »

So where all of the repossessions? Why aren't they on the market?

What I have seen is that it is not a natural increase in price house, it is a manipulated increase in price, because in a number of cases, the price is increased substantially and then each week the EAs are having to reduce them again. Has anyone noticed that on the various house sale websites?

So my question is why are people jumping in now with a high bid when they could wait a few weeks?

It's not about whether being able to afford a house, it's down to being sensible, why blow an extra 100k, sure that could be two new cars......

Repossessions won't have any effect on SCD or desirable areas north of the city, even if 200 houses were repossessed in SCD and put on the market in the morning, they'd all be sold by this time next week.

Supply and demand, and it is the area in most demand, ESRI says the countrys back in recovery, looks like price rises are here for the forseeable future, this time next year they'll be higher, not being a troll but I genuinely think they will be, barring some major economic disaster, or zombie outbreak!

Ray Palmer

Jellybean73 wrote: »

So where all of the repossessions? Why aren't they on the market?

What I have seen is that it is not a natural increase in price house, it is a manipulated increase in price, because in a number of cases, the price is increased substantially and then each week the EAs are having to reduce them again. Has anyone noticed that on the various house sale websites?

So my question is why are people jumping in now with a high bid when they could wait a few weeks?

It's not about whether being able to afford a house, it's down to being sensible, why blow an extra 100k, sure that could be two new cars......

There are lots of theories why repossessions haven't happened. You can go to another thread for that which is chugging away. Both side will tell you it isn't happening and no sign of it happening suddenly. That is it, so supply is remains limited.

What you have seen is an increase in asking prices from undervalued prices.

Can you point to more than 3 houses where this jump and back track on prices happen? I haven't seen any just taking your word it is happening.

Natural price increase look like what in your opinion that this is unnatural?

You haven't said people are jumping on these prices till now what proof do you have? Asking prices increasing mean little without sales.

The most likely thing to me would be agents are dropping the reduced prices that were used to get interest.

It certainly doesn't suggest a bubble.

jim_jones

The Spider wrote: »

Repossessions won't have any effect on SCD or desirable areas north of the city, even if 200 houses were repossessed in SCD and put on the market in the morning, they'd all be sold by this time next week.

Supply and demand, and it is the area in most demand, ESRI says the countrys back in recovery, looks like price rises are here for the forseeable future, this time next year they'll be higher, not being a troll but I genuinely think they will be, barring some major economic disaster, or zombie outbreak!

agreed , I can see much great divergence between desirable parts of the capital and the rest of the country , I would not touch a house in rural Ireland for at least another five years but would happily buy in the likes of dundrum of clontarf right now if I was so inclined

The_Conductor

This whole damn thread is a train crash.
Cop on guys- if you want to start slagging off various areas- this is not the right place to have a pissing contest. I'm not going to put up with any more crap in this thread- you have been warned.

murphaph

lima wrote: »

I actually should explain that I discount all of outside Dublin in my assertions. I do not have a 'chip', I do think that south Dublin is overpriced, since there are many other places with good amenities (Clontarf, Sutton, Howth, Drumcondra to name a few) that are not in south Dublin.

I do think there is an unrealistic perception that south Dublin is the only place with such amenities, which actually suits me fine as I am from the northside and I am unfamiliar with the area, so I would not look for a property in the area. I grew up just fine in the northside!

To be honest I think you've missed the bottom of this crash in Dublin and surrounding counties at least.

ted1

Jellybean73 wrote: »

Why have EAs increased the house prices in Dublin south by approximately 100,000 in the last few months?
Some houses that have been on the market for ages, now have an increased asking price.
What I find crazy is that there appears to be people out there who are now putting higher offers in, now with the increased asking price.

Yet they could have put in a considerably lower offer a few months back.
Does anybody know why? I'm flaberghasted!
I've gone to some open days recently with a friend of mine and people are putting in exorbitantly high offers.

It makes sense to me that the general buying public should hold back and let the price settle back to where it was, why are some 'idiots' putting in crazy offers? They are pushing up a false price of a house and it becomes overvalued.

It's like a mini property bubble again.

Any suggestions?

I know of several people looking to buy in SoCoDu. Over the past 12 months houses have been exceeding the asking price. The new asking prices are closer to what the actual sale price will be.

as regards them beign idiots, and should wait. thats nonsense the problem is that they waited to long.

I bit the bullet in May 2012 and going on recent sales I would have paid 50% for my property now compared to what i bought it for then.

gaius c

ted1 wrote: »

I know of several people looking to buy in SoCoDu. Over the past 12 months houses have been exceeding the asking price. The new asking prices are closer to what the actual sale price will be.

as regards them beign idiots, and should wait. thats nonsense the problem is that they waited to long.

I bit the bullet in May 2012 and going on recent sales I would have paid 50% for my property now compared to what i bought it for then.

Without meaning to personalise this but it's a common enough thing right now as it was during the bubble, that being the trend for the most recent entrants to the market to be the ones loudest in telling those not yet on the "ladder" that they missed their chance.

50% price rises in the space of 17 months (even if true/plausible) isn't remotely sustainable.

Jellybean73

I don't believe any house was "undervalued" in the last two years. Houses were approaching where a house value was correct. So I believe a band of EAs got together and decided to create a manufactured increase in price.

I don't agree that it is just a case of supply vs demand in this case. It is too obvious to use that argument.

Of course it is the EA who decides the price of a house, otherwise why would we need them to value a house in the first place, now would we??

Perhaps it should be clear that there is a clear delineation between the types of properties in SCD. There are houses that are absolutely at the right price, they are in good condition, better location, etc and justify the price...... However, there are a number of houses, whether they are executor sales, or a couple who weren't bothered investing in updating a house, or not in one of the better locations......coz not every location in SCD is 'desirable'..... These are the houses that have been on the market for a while, some with no bid at all in......Yet when the price goes up, there are now bids in.

Hence that was the reason for my op!

As a result, I believe that the EAs then raised the asking prices by approx 100k+ for newer properties on the market, however I have found it interesting that the EAs are beginning to reduce those asking prices again.

I will try and find a couple of examples.

So I think that you cannot generalise by saying its natural prices, demand vs supply, mortgage approval, etc.....

The dramatic changes in asking price whether it is up or down are not consistent with the typical obvious argument of supply and demand.....

There is not an actual upward trend in asking prices! It is very inconsistent. It is a rollercoaster. If you start looking at statistics of house sale prices, you cannot rely on them as there are vast inconsistencies and the statistics are skewed.

I agree that there are beautiful properties in the north side. Great amenities, etc, but I was just focusing on an area of SCD for my point of view.

Jellybean73

I get emails from a well known property site and I've noticed the trend of the increase in prices and then the subsequent fall.

At the top of the email it shows if there is an increase or decrease in the original asking price, if there is a change.

What I have seen is that in approx April, the asking prices were increased on average by approx 100k+ for example a 3br semi detached house.

It's quite a dramatic increase if you believe it's a natural increase..... For example a house of 695 is now 795. And 495 up to 550 and upwards.

What I have been aware of is that there are now emails coming in showing a reduction in those prices.......And I can see a trend. So I was just saying, why did certain people jump in at the higher price, it would have been sensible to wait.

The Spider

Jellybean73 wrote: »

I don't believe any house was "undervalued" in the last two years. Houses were approaching where a house value was correct. So I believe a band of EAs got together and decided to create a manufactured increase in price.

I don't agree that it is just a case of supply vs demand in this case. It is too obvious to use that argument.

Of course it is the EA who decides the price of a house, otherwise why would we need them to value a house in the first place, now would we??

Perhaps it should be clear that there is a clear delineation between the types of properties in SCD. There are houses that are absolutely at the right price, they are in good condition, better location, etc and justify the price...... However, there are a number of houses, whether they are executor sales, or a couple who weren't bothered investing in updating a house, or not in one of the better locations......coz not every location in SCD is 'desirable'..... These are the houses that have been on the market for a while, some with no bid at all in......Yet when the price goes up, there are now bids in.

Hence that was the reason for my op!

As a result, I believe that the EAs then raised the asking prices by approx 100k+ for newer properties on the market, however I have found it interesting that the EAs are beginning to reduce those asking prices again.

I will try and find a couple of examples.

So I think that you cannot generalise by saying its natural prices, demand vs supply, mortgage approval, etc.....

The dramatic changes in asking price whether it is up or down are not consistent with the typical obvious argument of supply and demand.....

There is not an actual upward trend in asking prices! It is very inconsistent. It is a rollercoaster. If you start looking at statistics of house sale prices, you cannot rely on them as there are vast inconsistencies and the statistics are skewed.

I agree that there are beautiful properties in the north side. Great amenities, etc, but I was just focusing on an area of SCD for my point of view.

You don't seem to understand that a house will only sell for what people in the market will pay, not what estate agents say they should pay, for example in the boom you had 3 bed semis in SCD going for close to a million, the reason was the banks gave people the money an they were prepared to pay it.

Then they crashed and those houses were eventually on sale for 250-350 thousand, banks didn't lend so people couldn't buy, simple as that. If people
are wiling to pay the price then that's what they'll sell for, if the house doesn't sell then the only way to sell it is reduce the price, but they are selling.

ted1

gaius c wrote: »

Without meaning to personalise this but it's a common enough thing right now as it was during the bubble, that being the trend for the most recent entrants to the market to be the ones loudest in telling those not yet on the "ladder" that they missed their chance.

50% price rises in the space of 17 months (even if true/plausible) isn't remotely sustainable.

what i meant was that in spring/summer 2012 houses in SoCoDu where sellign for belwo the asking price. and now the market has picked up and they are going foe above the askign price. so really they should have bought last year.

as regards 50% increase over 17 months. its purely down to them been serious undervalued in 2012. There was aboout 10 houses I was looking at in killiney all 3 bed semi D's that sold for between 190 and 250. Houses in the estate are now making 300+


Heres some examples from the property price register. these houses are all the same an in th esame estate. you can clearly see that the 2013 prices are up 50% on the 2012 prices

26/08/2013 €353,657.00 50 Bayview Drive, Killiney
17/06/2013 €287,000.00 6 Bayview Rise, Killiney
11/02/2013 €305,000.00 5 Bayview Green, Killiney
27/09/2012 €240,000.00 24 BAYVIEW CRESCENT, killiney, Dublin
10/09/2012 €222,000.00 6 Bayview Lawns, Killiney, Co. Dublin
21/08/2012 €197,500.00 1 Bayview Crescent, Killiney, Dublin
17/08/2012 €230,000.00 15 Bayview Close, Killiney, Co. Dublin, Dublin
23/07/2012 €207,500.00 10 Bayview Crescent, Killiney, Co Dublin, Dublin
24/07/2012 €210,000.00 40 Baywiew Lawns, Killiney, Dublin
17/07/2012 €251,000.00 17 Bayview Park, Killiney, Dublin

Scortho

The scd market is acting very weirdly at the moment. Well thats how it appears to me.
I aint gonna deny that prices have risen, however the rises in some areas are different to the rises in others.
Personally i think we should be seeing gradual rises from here on out provided two factors remain the same.
That is supply of houses remain at there current level, and the number of people getting mortgages, along with the value of those mortgages remain the same. If the value and number of people getting mortgages increases, while supply remains at its current level then we'll end up with a stronger than expected rise and the opposite can be expected if supply increases while mortgage lending tightens up.

Anyhow time for some anomalies/shocking gains/me being confused.

Lets take these three houses on Barton Road in Rathfarnham, a nice area close to st enda's Park and Marley Park with good schools nearby.
The first two sold in 2012 for an average of €268750
The third house sold in 2013 for €355,000.

Number 35 sold for 265,000
https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-B95778B8CB22AFC380257A7D0057DB90?OpenDocument

number 19 sold for €272500.
https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-B95778B8CB22AFC380257A7D0057DB90?OpenDocument

Number 8 sold for €355,000
https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-055FD64B4CD4DC0780257BE4003B90CF?OpenDocument

thats a price difference of 32%. That either suggests that house prices in rathfarnham were seriously undervalued in 2012, or we're entering possible bubble territory gains/dead cat bounce with those rises.

the three houses are the same size and were in similar condition inside, all three needed to refurbished.
As an example this here is no. 8. it aint exactly in walk in condition and the other two were in a similar state so that doesnt explain the difference.
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-barton-road-rathfarnham-dublin-14/2413669

In fact no. 19 and no. 35 have south facing rear gardens, while no. 8 has a north facing rear garden which gets very little sun. In a normal market, no. 8 should be selling for around a similar price to what no. 19 and 35 sold for last year, as its not as desirable. All three gardens are roughly the same size as well.

An even stranger example is that rathfarnham road in D6w is now more expensive than the more desirable and upmarket Marlborough Road in Donnybrook.

Here is the house at 96 rathfarnham road, asking 975,000 or €455 per sq. ft.
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/96-rathfarnham-road-terenure-dublin-6w/2645732

Here is the house on Marlborough Road in Donnybrook with an AMV of 1.1 million or €405.90 per sq.ft
http://www.lisney.com/Residential/94-Marlborough-Road-Donnybrook-Dublin-4.aspx

While no. 94 isnt finished to the same standard as 96, its a period redbrick, with period features intact, with off street parking and closer to the city centre in what should be a more sought after area.
For 94 to command the same price per sq.ft as 96 rathfarnham road, it would need to sell at auction for 1.23 million at auction. However they are willing to sell before auction according to the agent. Even at that price, is rathfarnham road, worth the same amount per sq. foot as Donnybrook?
I dont think so.

Although the house looks crap on the outside (with a bit of exterior modification, could be made into a very nice house on an amazing site). Failed to sell at auction, no bids, which I was surprised at considering what the same agent is asking for the rathfarnham road house.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/greenwood-95-ballytore-road-rathfarnham-dublin-14/2626030

gaius c

Jellybean73 wrote: »

I don't believe any house was "undervalued" in the last two years. Houses were approaching where a house value was correct. So I believe a band of EAs got together and decided to create a manufactured increase in price.

Sorry dude but that's lala thinking.

There's a rational debate to be had about the messed up market & the subsequent effect on prices but hinting at sinister smoke-filled basement rooms with EA's sitting around a table and setting the value of properties in Dublin is just laughable stuff.

jackal

lima wrote: »

I don't really understand your hostile tone but I probably shouldn't ask about it.

Whilst you perhaps lend weight to some of your side of the argument, I will not discuss it further with you as you clearly are looking for an argument.

Hi, I re-read it and yes it came across as a bit snotty. I did not mean it to be, apologies! I am not looking for an argument.

I just disagree with the suggestion that this is either caused by estate agents or people being silly with their money.

One factor which has not been mentioned: there is a good bit of cash sloshing around the economy, not everyone has suffered in the recession, and with banks offering paltry interest rates and very little in the way of security on deposits over 100k, people are actually investing in bricks and mortar. Not for a home, not for gains, but for security for large piles of cash. The government could decide to break open the piggy bank if the worst happened and seize all deposits over 100k, but a house in ballsbridge is still worth something even in a disaster scenario.

Also worth mentioning, I saw a good few Chinese couples attending viewings when I was looking, so the idea that if we all just hold off and not offer above the asking price, everything will be grand, is a bit outdated. The market decides the price, international buyers won't play ball.

The_Conductor

Guys- I have just deleted 26 posts here- almost a record.
Keep ontopic. Quit being snobby, snotty, elitist, argumentative, and uncivil towards one another. I've PM'ed the main protagonists. I have not given any official sanctions to anyone involved in this train wreck- but I'm also not going to look the other way if you start this up again. Consider this the one and only warning- and cop on.

jackal

Scortho wrote: »

The scd market is acting very weirdly at the moment. Well thats how it appears to me.
I aint gonna deny that prices have risen, however the rises in some areas are different to the rises in others.
Personally i think we should be seeing gradual rises from here on out provided two factors remain the same.
That is supply of houses remain at there current level, and the number of people getting mortgages, along with the value of those mortgages remain the same. If the value and number of people getting mortgages increases, while supply remains at its current level then we'll end up with a stronger than expected rise and the opposite can be expected if supply increases while mortgage lending tightens up.

Anyhow time for some anomalies/shocking gains/me being confused.

Lets take these three houses on Barton Road in Rathfarnham, a nice area close to st enda's Park and Marley Park with good schools nearby.
The first two sold in 2012 for an average of €268750
The third house sold in 2013 for €355,000.

Number 35 sold for 265,000
https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-B95778B8CB22AFC380257A7D0057DB90?OpenDocument

number 19 sold for €272500.
https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-B95778B8CB22AFC380257A7D0057DB90?OpenDocument

Number 8 sold for €355,000
https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-055FD64B4CD4DC0780257BE4003B90CF?OpenDocument

thats a price difference of 32%. That either suggests that house prices in rathfarnham were seriously undervalued in 2012, or we're entering possible bubble territory gains/dead cat bounce with those rises.

the three houses are the same size and were in similar condition inside, all three needed to refurbished.
As an example this here is no. 8. it aint exactly in walk in condition and the other two were in a similar state so that doesnt explain the difference.
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-barton-road-rathfarnham-dublin-14/2413669

In fact no. 19 and no. 35 have south facing rear gardens, while no. 8 has a north facing rear garden which gets very little sun. In a normal market, no. 8 should be selling for around a similar price to what no. 19 and 35 sold for last year, as its not as desirable. All three gardens are roughly the same size as well.

An even stranger example is that rathfarnham road in D6w is now more expensive than the more desirable and upmarket Marlborough Road in Donnybrook.

Here is the house at 96 rathfarnham road, asking 975,000 or €455 per sq. ft.
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/96-rathfarnham-road-terenure-dublin-6w/2645732

Here is the house on Marlborough Road in Donnybrook with an AMV of 1.1 million or €405.90 per sq.ft
http://www.lisney.com/Residential/94-Marlborough-Road-Donnybrook-Dublin-4.aspx

While no. 94 isnt finished to the same standard as 96, its a period redbrick, with period features intact, with off street parking and closer to the city centre in what should be a more sought after area.
For 94 to command the same price per sq.ft as 96 rathfarnham road, it would need to sell at auction for 1.23 million at auction. However they are willing to sell before auction according to the agent. Even at that price, is rathfarnham road, worth the same amount per sq. foot as Donnybrook?
I dont think so.

Although the house looks crap on the outside (with a bit of exterior modification, could be made into a very nice house on an amazing site). Failed to sell at auction, no bids, which I was surprised at considering what the same agent is asking for the rathfarnham road house.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/greenwood-95-ballytore-road-rathfarnham-dublin-14/2626030

It is notoriously difficult to pick the bottom of a cycle. Even now, nobody can say for sure if 2011 was the bottom, or if the arse will fall out of the market again.

We can only comment on what is happening at the moment and that seems to be that there is huge demand for property is south dublin, there is little supply in the area and this is driving up prices as competition between bidders is the main driving factor behind rising prices. Rationality goes out the window a little bit where more than one party is determined that a property shall be theirs, and they can end up paying way more than what they would have if they were the only bidder and the seller was happy with a reasonable offer. If ALL decent properties for sale now have multiple bidders like that, then its inevitable that prices are only going to continue to rise, unless as you say the supply is increased.

Remember that nobody has been building properties in dublin in any great number and the demand is estimated at something like 10,000 per year, so the supply problem has been there for a while, where as the only thing keeping prices down was buyers were not attempting to buy in any great hurry as prices continued to fall.

The market in 2011 was a very different place. Estate agents were delighted to accommodate viewings whenever suited you, offers at the first viewing were unheard of.. etc. etc. There was a lot of fear about things and where there was a reasonable bid on a property, the other potential buyers jogged on in search of a bargain.

D3PO

ted1 wrote: »

Heres some examples from the property price register. these houses are all the same an in th esame estate. you can clearly see that the 2013 prices are up 50% on the 2012 prices

26/08/2013 €353,657.00 50 Bayview Drive, Killiney
17/06/2013 €287,000.00 6 Bayview Rise, Killiney
11/02/2013 €305,000.00 5 Bayview Green, Killiney
27/09/2012 €240,000.00 24 BAYVIEW CRESCENT, killiney, Dublin
10/09/2012 €222,000.00 6 Bayview Lawns, Killiney, Co. Dublin
21/08/2012 €197,500.00 1 Bayview Crescent, Killiney, Dublin
17/08/2012 €230,000.00 15 Bayview Close, Killiney, Co. Dublin, Dublin
23/07/2012 €207,500.00 10 Bayview Crescent, Killiney, Co Dublin, Dublin
24/07/2012 €210,000.00 40 Baywiew Lawns, Killiney, Dublin
17/07/2012 €251,000.00 17 Bayview Park, Killiney, Dublin

you cant see that clearly. You cant base an increase on just one house 50 bayview drive.

What your saying is absolutely ridiculous. Your only short of saying house prices in this estate are up 25% between june and august of this year :rolleyes::rolleyes: