A large one

chompdown

premierstone wrote: »

Good news for you on Danny Ings is that he and the burnley manager have stated he will be staying with Burnley untill hte summer, that was my biggest worry for you on this bet, IMO he is too good for Burnley!

Yeah it's nice to see Ings will be staying. To be fair, it is the best way for all parties. I was never worried about him leaving in January, and I think he is the kind of guy that has taken the rumours in his stride, and got some extra confidence from them.

Now, Jordan Rhodes is another story altogether. He's in his second season with Blackburn and they don't look like getting promotion at all despite some semi decent results lately. Bowyer said he is available at a price "too good to turn down". To me that is Blackburn putting him in the shop window.

I see them getting £8m to £10m for him from WBA or Everton, and using that money to rebuild the squad in the Summer.

With Ross McCormack's Leeds getting walloped last weekend, Rhodes possibly on his way, Ings staying, a good Stevenage win on Tuesday night and a desperate performance by the Gills last weekend, I am really starting to believe this bet can come off!

Very much looking forward to this weekend's games and hopefully we will see the odds drop below 20.0 for the first time.

I'm also monitoring the Leon Clarke situation at Coventry. If he ends up on the way to the Championship there could be some good value in the L1 top goalscorer market!

Fowler87

Hope you did a single on that Ings top scorer bet too because that price is plummeting fast! Imo he's the favourite now. Good luck

chompdown

No single on Ings I'm afraid!

Very bad day yesterday with Gillingham picking up another win and this time being by far the best team. They're out to 5s for relegation now and pretty much only need to pick up 5 more wins and a couple of draws from their late 19 games to be safe.

The only saving grace with having Gillingham to go down is that they have played the most home games in the league. 15 played at home, 12 away. Two of their next 8 games are at home... I need them to pick up only 3 points from those eight games to be back on the relegation points average (one point per game gets you relegated most years).

Collie D

chompdown wrote: »

No single on Ings I'm afraid!

Very bad day yesterday with Gillingham picking up another win and this time being by far the best team. They're out to 5s for relegation now and pretty much only need to pick up 5 more wins and a couple of draws from their late 19 games to be safe.

The only saving grace with having Gillingham to go down is that they have played the most home games in the league. 15 played at home, 12 away. Two of their next 8 games are at home... I need them to pick up only 3 points from those eight games to be back on the relegation points average (one point per game gets you relegated most years).

Only three points from eight games seems like a very big ask. Would even expect the bottom side in most divisions to manage that.

Another thing in your favour I would have thought is that as well as the high number of home games they've played they've also played more than most teams. Only three teams in the bottom half (including Gillingham) have played 27. The rest all have at least one game in hand with Crawley having three and Bristol City (currently in the dropzone) having two.

Starting to look less likely but you're not holding a beaten docket yet.

chompdown

Yeah, they have played more games, but if you look at the average points per game, they have a record which will easily keep them up if they continue at the same rate. I'm sure the 6 away game out of the next 8 will put a healthy dent in that average, but like you said 3 points from 8 games is a big ask.

Personally, I think Carlisle, Crewe, Tranmere, Shrewsbury and Stevenage are all worse than Gillingham (at the moment!).

Patriots lost pretty comprehensively last night, so my Christmas outside bet is a loser already

chompdown

Looking forward to watch Brentford hopefully beating Gills tonight live on Sky. It's been a good month in work so I thought I would place another bet, as I'm really looking to follow Benfica with a few quid again in the Europa League.

I had my selections picked, but Coral had dropped the odds on Benfica from 21.0 to 17.0 (probably because they have won 12 of their last 13 games!). That forced me to switch it around a bit but I think I have found some great value, so here it is....

Rhys Murphy League 2 top scorer @ 10.0 (one goal off the top, just turned down a move to Peterborough)
Cardiff City Prem Relegation @ 2.0
Benfica EL Champions @ 17.0

Total odds 340.0
Stake £95 (€112)
Potential winnings: £32,300 (€38,000)

chompdown

Interesting to see West Ham are in for Ross McCormack. Bid rejected (reportedly £3.5m).

Like Burnley with Ings, I can't see Leeds selling their best man (and club captain). The only difference may be that Ross is 27 and it could be his best chance to play in the Premier League.

Let's see if he kicks up a fuss...

Gillingham were played off the park last night but fought very bravely, their keeper made some top drawer saves, and they could have even picked up a point had their new loan signing put away a good chance at the end. The two goals they gave away were awful.

They are on 32 points after 28 games, those too numbers need to get closer to each other!

Some more thoughts on the new bet.

Cardiff appointing Ole Gunnar is a huge risk. The price of 2.0 was the best of all bookies and I think represents good value. They're playing utd on Tuesday

Rhys Murphy (Irish) is one behind Winnall of Scunthorpe, who have just sign McShefferry and Paddy Madden. Wirrall will defo get less game time, as they have lots of v good strikers now.

The other danger is Rochdale's Scott Hogan, who is two goals behind Murphy. Hoga is strongly being linked with a move to Wolves this transfer window. I am a big fan of the price for Murphy.

Benfica. I just love watching them play!

BorneTobyWilde

Whats current price

chompdown

Not all bookies have reopened the betting in these markets but at the moment the odds are:

35.75 Ings/Gills
374.0 Cardiff/Benfica/Murphy

Murphy was ****e on Saturday by all accounts and got taken off after 69 mins. Winnall bagged a goal too and is two clear.

Rumours: WBA in for Ings and West Ham up their bid to £5m for McCormack.

chompdown

So the transfer window has closed and no deals affecting my bets were struck. It looked like McCormack was going to leave with reports of 6 teams interested, but he's staying and McDermott is leaving. What a joke of a club they are.

From a purely greedy gamblers perspective, it was great to Charlie Austin pick up a long term injury, so he is out of the race now.

Should be a good day today. I can now have interest in the Prem down to League 2! I could really do with Gillingham losing at home to Port Vale today...

First up, QPR v Burnley. Come on Ings!

kerosene

ings has scored after 25 mins, hope he gets another at least for you.

chompdown

After a great start, today turned out to be the worst day for the bet. A hat-trick for Ross McCormack and a 3-2 win for the Gills. I've given up hope now

One silver lining was a goal for Rhys Murphy putting him one off the top in league 2. That second accumulator is still a major longship though...

langer91

chompdown wrote: »

After a great start, today turned out to be the worst day for the bet. A hat-trick for Ross McCormack and a 3-2 win for the Gills. I've given up hope now

One silver lining was a goal for Rhys Murphy putting him one off the top in league 2. That second accumulator is still a major longship though...

Can't give up hope yet mate still a long way to go!

Collie D

You giving up on this? 53/1 at the moment. Still a way to go

chompdown

Yeah I've given up hope to be honest. Gillingham need 12 points from their last 15 games to be sure of safety and it looks like they will do that no problem...

While Ings is banging them in so is McCormack. Incidentally I had McCormack in a similar accy a couple of years ago and his goals dried up costing me a win. Typical!

For the latter accy, Sam Winnall has picked up his scoring form again, and Rhys Murphy is getting goals disallowed left, right and centre.

I will still be keeping an eye on the bets but won't be following them as actively...

Maybe I'll add another, but probably not much value around at this stage of the season...

Fowler87

Ings is doing his best to win it for you chompdown with another today! Plumped for him at the beginning of January @ 5/1 for season top scorer. Still hopeful even with the form of McCormack

chompdown

The BBC and a couple of other places had Ings down as the scorer yesterday but it was actually Keith Treacy that scored

chompdown

Ok, so I had a gawk at Coral to see if I could find some value. Feeling a bit embarrassed to be putting up my 4 accummulator of the season. (one loser, two pending and now this new one...).

Barnsley relegation @ 1.40
Rotherham top 6 finish @ 1.20
Torquay relegation @ 2.20
Russia ice hockey gold @ 4.33
Benfica Europa League winners @ 17.0

Total odds: 272.0
Stake: £99
Winnings: £26,928 / €32,937

chompdown

It was the first day of bet #4 yesterday. Barnsley were beaten and Russia got through to the QFs where they meet Finland today... so a decent start.

Gills are at home to Sheffield United tonight and tomorrow Benfica start their Europa League campaign.

Hoping for another two positive results today!

chompdown

Well that was a quick loser! Finland performed bravely to beat Russia. Their goalkeeper was especially good...

chompdown

With two bets down I'm left with my other two.

They're shorter than their odds at the start but I'm just not feeling good about them...Here are the latest odds before this weekends games.

Bet 1

Danny Ings Top Scorer: 34.0 -> 6.0
Gillingham L2 relegation: 3.0 -> 7.5

Total odds: 102 -> 45.0
Total stake: £162
Potential winnings: £16,524 (€19,913)

Bet 2

Rhys Murphy League 2 top scorer @ 10.0 -> 9.0
Cardiff City Prem Relegation @ 2.0 -> 1.75
Benfica EL Champions @ 17.0 -> 15.0

Total odds 340.0 -> 236.0
Stake £95 (€112)
Potential winnings: £32,300 (€38,000)

Collie D

I'm still following your original double. Could be a big day for it today. McCormack has already scored one in the early KO but missed a penalty. Hopefully Ings can bang in a couple today. And if Bristol City beat Gills at home then Gillingham will be a max f three points clear of the drop. Hopefully the tide turns back in your favour today. Good luck

chompdown

Cheers Collie. McCormack is a real pain in the arse! Ings set up both goals today but didn't get one himself...

When I lost hope it was because of Gillingham but after they lost today's relegation 6 pointer they aren't looking so safe! They've lost three on the trot now and as you pointed out, are only three points clear. Teams below them are in better form and have games in hand.

Burnley have a nice run of games coming up this month, so if Ings can outscore McCormack by two or three this month, it could be back on!

chompdown

Sam Winnall League 2 Top Scorer @ 1.91
Blackpool Championship relegation @ 4.5
Valencia Europa League Winners @ 17.0

Stake: £131

Insight: Later... working now!

chompdown

The reason behind my latest bet is as follows:

Winnall is one clear at the top and Scott Hogan just picked up a knee injury. There was talk of it being a cruciate but it's not. Even if he misses the next three games against three teams right at the bottom, Winnall should get a chance to open a gap.

Blackpool are in horrendous form and sinking into the danger zone. They lost again yesterday and ALL the teams at the bottom that played, won. The odds have been dramatically reduced from 4.5 to 2.75. Nice.

Valencia were best priced @17.0 with Coral and have been in good form since changing their manager in Jan.

I'm confident that I will get more value with this bet compared to the other recent picks.

As for the original double, Ings reduced the gap to three but Gills won and are 6 points above the relegation zone

Hope to have the full odds update tomorrow.

chompdown

Bet 1

Danny Ings Top Scorer: 34.0 -> 6.0
Gillingham L2 relegation: 3.0 -> 7.0

Total odds: 102 -> 42.0
Total stake: £162
Potential winnings: £16,524 (€19,913)

Bet 2

Sam Winnall League 2 top scorer @ 1.91 -> 1.5
Blackpool Championship Relegation @ 4.5 -> 2.75
Valencia EL Champions @ 17.0 -> 17.0

Total odds 146.1 -> 70.1
Stake £131 (€155)
Potential winnings: £19,139 (€22,950)

chompdown

Terrible results last night... Blackpool and Gillingham both win to put plenty of distance between themselves and relegation zone

chompdown

So I can pretty much write off the first bet now,but happy to have had a good run for my money.

With Valencia basically through to the Quarter Finals, and Blackpool losing again the latest bet is absolutely going in the right direction. If Millwall and Charlton can pick up a couple of wins Blackpool could find themselves in serious trouble.

It would be great to see Juve knocked out on Thursday, leaving Benfica as the biggest threat to Valencia.

chompdown

Well Valencia got through without any hassle and got a decent draw against Basel in the quarter finals. All of the top teams made it through and the last 8 looks very strong. Valencia are 4th favourites behind, Juve, Benfica and Porto.

Charlton picked up a last minute win mid week and that has done them the world of good. It's looking like two teams from this group to go down with Barnsley.... Yeovil, Millwall, Doncaster, Charlton and my selection Blackpool

Winnall hasn't really taken advantage of Hogan's absence but is still 2 goals clear. A goal this weekend would make me happy.

So here are the odds:

Bet 2

Sam Winnall League 2 top scorer @ 1.91 -> 1.17
Blackpool Championship Relegation @ 4.5 -> 5.5
Valencia EL Champions @ 17.0 -> 10.0

Total odds 146.1 -> 64.4
Stake £131 (€155)
Potential winnings: £19,139 (€22,950)

Not bad!

chompdown

Since my last post Blackpool have lost one and won one, but both 1–0. With Bolton and Huddersfield out of the way, they have some very difficult fixtures coming up, starting with QPR. I get the sense that Blackpool's game at home to Yeovil will be big for this bet.

Winnall bagged a brace so this bet is now effectively a double. Blackpool @9 and Valencia @10.