A large one

chompdown

Hello all. Long time lurker. I'm trying to win big this season and have placed a tasty double to try to win €20,000.

It's as follows:

Danny Ings to be Championship top scorer and Gillingham to be relegated from L1. It's 101/1 and I put €200 on.

I put it on 2 weeks ago and thought I would keep track of it on here as I'm starting to get a bit excited about it.

chompdown

Quick update, the favourite to be Championship top scorer, Jordan Rhodes, pulled out of the Scottish squad with a groin injury. Probably a sullsh1t injury to get him out of the nothing game, but hopefully it's more serious! Yes, I know that's not kind to say but I need all the luck I can get with a 101/1 shot!

Did you really do this?

chompdown

Absolutely. I can add a screen shot if needs be.

What do you think of the bet?

Ings was 33/1 and two goals behind Rhodes and Vaughan. He's down to 25/1 but still 2 behind.

Gillingham were 2/1 but are now 5/2 after beating MK Dons (10 men, 2 penos).

Ings looks pure class by the way.

chompdown

Not a bad day today at all... Gillingham were beaten by fellow relegation contenders Shrewsbury 2-0, and the teams around them that played won.... Stevenage and Crewe.

Skybet are most generous with the odds and have them at 3.25. Ings still 26.0 so that makes odds of 84.5. Going in the right direction!

chompdown

Pretty big development for the bet with the Gillingham manager Martin Allen getting sacked today. Not sure how that will affect things but from my research their problems are the playing staff, not management.

It was nice to see Tranmere win today too, meaning all of the relegation contenders that played this weekend (ex Sheffield Utd) won. Lovely!

chompdown

Well Coral have finally seen sense and dropped the odds on Danny Ings to be Championship top scorer. Maybe it was his call up to the England U21s and the attention he got that made them realise he wasn't a 33/1 shot. They now have him at 12/1.

After Martin Allen's sacking, previously best-priced Bet365 reduced their odds on the Gills getting relegated so now Coral are best priced there at 3.2.

So, after all that the odds are as follows:

Danny Ings top scorer: 34.0 -> 15.0 (Bet 365)
Gillingham relegation: 3.0 -> 3.2 (Coral)
Total: 102.0 -> 48.0

The odds have dropped by more than half already! Happy days.

paulb06

Well done on this! Looking forward to see how it pans out

chompdown

Thanks Paul.

Not a bad day yesterday. Gillingham were beaten at home by a decent Preston side. It looks as though Peter Taylor is going to bring in more of a passing style for them, but their fans seem to think that the players aren't good enough to play good football. So the sacking of Martin Allen may turn out to be a big positive for this selection.

Burnley beat Ipswich 1-0 in Portman Road, where Ipswich have a good record. No goal for Ings and the only other realistic rival that scored was Charlie Austin. James Vaughan got a straight red and will be banned for 3 games. I will update the odds tomorrow but I'm sure they will have shortened again...

Gillingham play Tuesday, Burnley not until Saturday.

chompdown

An important win for Gillingham against fellow relegation candidates Notts County last night. They have drifted out to 3.4 to be relegated and Coral have Tranmere, Notts County, Stevenage, Crewe and Colchester all shorter than the Gills to go down.

The odds are as follows:

Danny Ings top scorer: 34.0 -> 15.0
Gillingham relegation: 3.0 -> 3.4

Total: 102.0 -> 51.0

chompdown

What a fantastic day for the bet!

Danny Ings scored two against the best defence in the league, QPR, and Gillingham lost to mid-table Port Vale 2-1.

Even better was seeing Ings take and score a peno. Sam Vokes had taken the only other penalty that Burnley got this season so it was very nice to see Ings take this one. Maybe they'll take alternative penalties, but even that is better than nothing.

The only bogie on the scorecard was Jordan Rhodes scoring a pen for Blackburn.

Ings is one behind Rhodes now and Gillingham are only outside the relegation zone on goal difference. It's possible that the odds will have halved again once they are updated.

chompdown

The odds have been updated after the weekend games and are as follows. Starting odds, last weeks odds and then current odds....

Danny Ings top scorer: 34.0 -> 15.0 -> 12.0
Gillingham relegation: 3.0 -> 3.4 -> 2.5

Total: 102.0 -> 51.0 -> 30.0

So they did not drop by half from last week but I am still delighted that it is now a 29/1 shot, having started at 101/1

That means I am three times more likely to win the €20,000 !

On Saturday Burnley play Milwall away, while the Gills are at home to Oldham.

chompdown

Another goal for Ings today. Joint top now!

realgolfgeek

I'm rooting for you, hope you clean it up

chompdown

Cheers! I spoke too soon though as Ross McCormack banged in 4 to go clear on 11 goals to Ings and Rhodes' 10...

chompdown

Rhodes has picked up some sort of injury training with Scotland. How bad it is is not yet known. Keeping my fingers crossed for Danny Ings!

It is thought he has suffered only soft tissue damage despite fears that there may have been a fracture. Rhodes has been sent back to Blackburn for a scan, amid concerns he may face a prolonged spell on the sidelines.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2506918/Jordan-Rhodes-suffered-injury-scare-freak-accident-Scotland-training.htm

Collie D

chompdown wrote: »

Rhodes has picked up some sort of injury training with Scotland. How bad it is is not yet known. Keeping my fingers crossed for Danny Ings!



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2506918/Jordan-Rhodes-suffered-injury-scare-freak-accident-Scotland-training.htm

I've had soft tissue damage to my foot. Extremely painful and was on crutches a few weeks. May as well be a fracture

chompdown

Great to hear Collie! In the nicest possible way of course

I think it's just another name for ligament damage, so it's a case of wait and see and hope and pray that he will be out for the busy Christmas period...

chompdown

No major injury for Rhodes, he might even be back for their next game! Ah well...

chompdown

Big win for Gillingham on Saturday away to fellow strugglers Sheffield United.

In their last three games they have picked up 6 points, and 9 points from the last 4 games so they are flying up the league. But by all accounts they have been playing poorly. The wins are coming from working hard, defending well and taking their chances. Here's a breakdown of their shots on target in the last three games. 6 shots on target, 4 goals, 6 points!

3 shots on target, 2 goals. 2-1 win
1 shot on target, 1 goal. 1-0 win
2 shots on target, 1 goal. 2-1 loss

Can they keep up that ratio? I very much doubt it...

Anyway, here's the new odds.

Danny Ings top scorer: 34.0 -> 10.0
Gillingham relegation: 3.0 -> 3.6

Total: 102.0 -> 36.0

langer91

love big season long bets like these! will be wacthing (and rooting for you :P ) with interest bud!

dobman88

Just clicked "Follow Thread". Best of luck, I'm actually rooting for you. Ballsy bet.

chompdown

Cheers lads! I love these bets too as there's not the same kind of highs and lows, and inevitable chasing when a loser comes in.

I had a treble last year as follows: Motherwell in the Scottish Prem w/o Celtic, Aldershot to be relegated from League 2, and Benfica to win the Europa league.

As you might remember, Ivanovic scored in the last minute to give the trophy to Chelsea. That defeat cost me winnings of about €27,000. Horrific!

Hoping this year works out slightly better...

Another goal for McCormack at the weekend sent him 2 goals clear of Ings, Rhodes and Vokes. Nugent banged in two and Charlie Austin also got one so it's very close up at the top now.

Delighted to see Gillingham lose at home to Norwich. True to form they only managed one miserable shot on target!

The new odds are as follows:

Danny Ings top scorer: 34.0 -> 10.0
Gillingham relegation: 3.0 -> 3.25

Total: 102.0 -> 32.5

Ninap

Good luck with the bet! Will be following it.

Seems to be a couple of errors with your posts:

chompdown wrote: »

Gillingham were 2/1 but are now 5/2

3/1 presumably?

chompdown wrote: »

Delighted to see Gillingham lose at home to Norwich.

Oldham, not Norwich

chompdown

Not sure how I managed to type Norwich there. Thanks for the correction!

Gillingham have another big home game against Stevenage tonight...

chompdown

Gillingham beat Stevenage 3-2 on Tuesday night and were deserving winners according to reports. Now they have two away games to come, so I could really do with them picking up no more than 2 points.

Rotherham v Gills, and Huddersfield v Burnley on Saturday.

Boots234

Ings has just scored again

dobman88

Boots234 wrote: »

Ings has just scored again

And Rotherham crucifying Gills!! Great day for the bet

chompdown

Indeed it was a very good day for the bet! I was actually thinking that Gillingham could get a battering away to Rotherham, as they keep the ball very well and play proper football. It seems Gillingham are best when playing against other limited teams like themselves as their work ethic is good and they've been able to grind out wins. Against the more quality sides they are just not good enough. They have a very tough Christmas period so I expect them to be in the bottom four just after New Year's. They have to play Wolves, Leyton Orient and Peterborough.

Burnley lost only their second league game of the season but Danny Ings grabbed a goal, which puts him one ahead of Rhodes (another blank) and one behind Ross McCormack.

Charlie Austin and James Vaughan were the only real threats to score over the weekend so a very good day overall.

Here are the updated odds:

Danny Ings top scorer: 34.0 -> 8.0
Gillingham relegation: 3.0 -> 3.25

Total: 102.0 -> 26.0

It's gone from a 101/1 shot to a 25/1 shot. Not bad, but a long way to go for the €20,000 !

TheHannibal

Really enjoying this!

chompdown

Danny Ings is out of tonight's game with an ankle injury. It's typical gambler's luck that he picks up a knock on the Saturday before the first Tuesday game in ages. Also it's against a side shipping goals recently, and it's at home!

The last injuries Rhodes and McCormack got were during the international break...

True to gambler form I will be hoping that all Ings rivals all fail to score and pick up injuries too!

dobman88

That's rotten luck but there's a long season left so still plenty of time.

premierstone

Ings been linked with a number of Premiership sides in the papers today for the January window, could be a long anxious month for you!

chompdown

Indeed! I see even Liverpool have been mentioned as a possible bidder. All the speculation is sure to boost his confidence, and after Burnley only managed a 0-0 against Watford last night without him, his confidence should have gotten another little boost there. He's only just now getting a run in the first team up top, so I can't really see him wanting to give that up too quickly, even if it is a big money move.

Jordan Rhodes and Charlie Austin both scored last night to tighten the pack up again. Ross McCormack is still top by one and plays tonight.

chompdown

Two more goals for Ross McCormack last night That's 9 league goals from 5 games!

He goes clear of Ings and Rhodes by three goals. 14 vs 11.

Roll on Saturday!

dobman88

The Good- Gills losing to fellow strugglers (games they should be winning for survival)

The Bad- Ings not scoring.

The ugly- McCormack scoring and looking in fantastic form with an assist too.

Could do with a McCormack injury for a few weeks cos he looks the biggest threat. Ings should finish ahead of Rhodes imo cos he looks better and Rhodes hasn't produced what he did for Huddersfield when they got promoted 2 years ago.

chompdown

Yeah, Ross McCormack is absolutely banging them in! Also, Martin from Derby grabbed a hattrick and is right in the mix now. It's a very competitive top goalscorer competition this year, but I'm still happy to have Ings as the selection. Ross McCormack is quite injury prone so I'm crossing my fingers for an injury to him...

Ings is being pretty strongly linked with Liverpool and Celtic. That's a bit of a worry, but I really cant see him leaving unless Burnley want to sell, which I can't really see either!

Yeah, Gills losing to the bottom team was great. I knew that their smash and grab wins couldn't last forever. Now they have lost three of the last four and play Peterborough next!

dobman88

If Ings himself has any sense, he will stay until the end of the season at least. Obviously if Liverpool and Celtic came callin any player would want a move but if he stayed and got Burnley to the play offs or even promotion he would get a much better deal for himself. And like you said, do Burnley really want to sell him??

Also, COME ON (roar whoever Gills play here)

chompdown

Ings goal! Live on sky. Nice!

dobman88

Gills up 2-1 at home to Peterboro

Edit. Finished 2-2 so not too bad

chompdown

Well that was an interesting weekend. It started off very well with Ings scoring a real striker's goal in the box. The right-full Trippier's crosses into the middle have been very good this year so it's important for him to stay fit also. Ings also hit the post with a lovely glancing header. He really looks a class act.

After a good start it was a rel shame to see all the other three contenders score - McCormack, Rhodes and Austin.

Gillingham let in a 97th minute equaliser at home, and that is sure to crush their spirits! They went from 13th to 17th on the live score table with that goal...

Next weekend we have Gills away to Tranmere on Friday night and Burnley are at home to Blackpool. The busy Christmas season is starting now!

chompdown

Forgot to update the odds earlier!

Here they are... Possibly at the shortest they have been so far.

Danny Ings top scorer: 34.0 -> 9.0
Gillingham relegation: 3.0 -> 2.75

Total: 102.0 -> 24.75

Gillingham are 4th favourites to go down. Four go down.
Ings is 4th favourite to be top scorer. There's only one top scorer!

chompdown

A big 2-1 for Gills away to Tranmere last night. They're up to 15th now but are playing Leyton Orient on Thursday and I expect them to get beaten by 2 or more goals. Expect/hope!

Ings scored again and somehow Ross McCormack didn't! Rhodes did though so McCormack is only 3 goals ahead now.

Games on Thursday and Saturday. Will hopefully get a chance to tune into soccer saturday both days. Merry Christmas to all. I'm just happy to be still in with a shout with this beefy double!

chompdown

With it being Christmas week I thought I would treat myself to another accumulator. Coral are so generous with their season long markets, I just couldn't resist... Here it goes:

Benfica to win the Europa League @ 21.0
New England Patriots to win the AFC @ 4.5
Real Madrid to win the Euroleague Basketball @ 2.8

Total odds: 264.6
Total stake £85 (€101.50)
Potential winnings: £22,491 (€26,879)

I know less than nothing about Basketball and American Football. I just chase value, a strategy that has worked very well so far.

dobman88

The Patriots are missing their best tight-end in Gronkowski, out for the season with ACL, usually the go-to guy for the Quarter Back. But their QB, Tom Brady, is an absolute genius. Winning the game two weeks ago when he needed two touchdowns in the last 2 and half minutes of the game. And with a big win yesterday (41-7 v Ravens, the defending Superbowl champs) they seem to be doing fine.

In my opinion, the biggest danger for Patriots is the Broncos. Many people think the Broncos are Superbowl champions elect and they have looked very dangerous this year with a 12-3 record, the games they have lost their defence (or defense as they say) hasn't performed.

Other teams are the Bengals, Colts and Chiefs but I think they will just run out of steam at crucial stages.

I think the 49ers or Seahawks from the NFC will win the Superbowl so at least you don't have to worry about them.

Here'a link to keep an eye on the AFC for the few weeks that are left. Best of luck

http://www.nfl.com/standings

chompdown

Thanks very much for that! Interesting to read about the AFC and it seems like next week's games will be very interesting... Obviously hoping the Patriots can get top spot for the playoffs.

I see that Von Miller of the Broncos is out for the rest of the season with a torn cruciate...

dobman88

chompdown wrote: »

Thanks very much for that! Interesting to read about the AFC and it seems like next week's games will be very interesting... Obviously hoping the Patriots can get top spot for the playoffs.

I see that Von Miller of the Broncos is out for the rest of the season with a torn cruciate...

Yeah, I just read up about his injury. The defense has been shaky all season and he was missing for about 5 weeks aswell before this injury and Broncos were still winning. In NFL, they talk about "elite" Quarter Backs. This season Manning and Brady would be in the "elite" category, with possibly Brees of the Saints.

The Broncos were always the ones to watch for just cos Manning is that damn good but you can never write Brady off and if the Broncos defense has an off day they will get destroyed cos at the end of the day, Manning is just one man and there is only so much he can do!

chompdown

Great stuff. Very interesting. I will try to watch the games this weekend and learn a thing or two, just for the sake of interest.

I am really looking forward to following Benfica in this year's Europe League so it would be so good if the Patriots could do me a favour and win the playoffs! If they don't, then the bet is a lost in January.

Great day lined up for the original bet today. Gills on at 1330 and then a full round of games at 1500 and Blackpool Leeds (McCormack) is the late Championship kickoff.

I only have three beers left though!

chompdown

Great start! Gills concede a cruel last minute goal again, to lose 2-1. That should hurt!

chompdown

Not a great day yesterday. Burnley have now only won 2 from 10 games and could only draw 0-0. No goals for Ings, and both Rhodes (2) and McCormack (1) scored. Martin for Derby is creeping up the charts too. Ings has drifted out to 11.0

Gillingham were one nil up, then conceded a 90th minute goal to go 2-1 down but then got an injury time goal themselves to draw 2-2! The Gills took only one point from their two home games this week and are still very much in trouble.

My New Year's wish is for Jordan Rhodes to join a prem team and Ross McCormack to pick up an injury!

kryogen

dobman88 wrote: »

The Patriots are missing their best tight-end in Gronkowski, out for the season with ACL, usually the go-to guy for the Quarter Back. But their QB, Tom Brady, is an absolute genius. Winning the game two weeks ago when he needed two touchdowns in the last 2 and half minutes of the game. And with a big win yesterday (41-7 v Ravens, the defending Superbowl champs) they seem to be doing fine.

In my opinion, the biggest danger for Patriots is the Broncos. Many people think the Broncos are Superbowl champions elect and they have looked very dangerous this year with a 12-3 record, the games they have lost their defence (or defense as they say) hasn't performed.

Other teams are the Bengals, Colts and Chiefs but I think they will just run out of steam at crucial stages.

I think the 49ers or Seahawks from the NFC will win the Superbowl so at least you don't have to worry about them.

Here'a link to keep an eye on the AFC for the few weeks that are left. Best of luck

http://www.nfl.com/standings

Pats are riddled with injury, Wilfork and Gronk being the two biggest but they are not alone sadly. We need both our rookie WR's to get back fit (both injured) and get people fit on defence/o line and other areas to have a chance. Its not likely tbh

Mankins went down in the last game, but returned to the field which I wasn't happy about, Solder has concussion problems, sorry I feel Im about to go off on a tangents here, basically I would be more confident at this moment about Benfica winning the Europa then I would the Pats winning the AFC. I really hope we get some players back though and give it a good go

If we had taken the number 1 seed, maybe it would have helped, already beaten the Broncos at Gilette this year but no confidence in going to Mile High to play them currently, they have a record breaking offence, we have a creaking defence. We are playing a reserve team on offence basically and they have a very good D

This bye week is very important for your bet OP