NZ v. SA, match preview & thread, Sat 14 Sep, 0835 Irish time

Swiwi.

The Auld Enemy
(intellectual property molloyjh )

ALL BLACKS: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Charlie Faumuina, 19 Steven Luatua, 20 Matt Todd, 21 Tawera Kerr Barlow, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Charles Piutau

SPRINGBOKS: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Willie le Roux, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Flip van der Merwe, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Gurthrö Steenkamp, 18 Coenie Oosthuizen, 19 Juandré Kruger, 20 Siya Kolisi, 21 Jano Vermaak, 22 Pat Lambie, 23 Jan Serfontein.

Date: September 14
Venue: Eden Park Stadium, Auckland
Kick-off: 19:35 (07:35 GMT)
Referee: Romain Poite (France)
Assistant referees: Jérôme Garcès (France), Francisco Pastrana (Argentina)
Television match official: George Ayoub (Australia)
Assessor: Lyndon Bray

I debated whether it's actually worth taking the time to preview this fixture, the forum's not exactly overflowing with Saffas & Kiwis, but then I thought feck it, I'll be up bright & early on Saturday to watch what should be a great test match, and I might as well leave something etched in cyberspace for posterity's sake.

So here we have the even more confident than usual Boks with a genuine belief in their ability to knock over the Kiwis, make the rest of the rugby world happy, and break the Eden Park hoodoo. And NZ, minus McCaw, determined to keep them at bay.

One of the great rugby truisms, printed on every box of cereal back home, is that rugby is won in the forwards. And that's never more true than when playing the men from the Highveld. If you can match SA in the forwards, you're more than half way on the road to victory. It's just easier said than done.

With that in mind let's preview some of the key match-ups. The NZ scrum got a little bossed around last week by those pesky Pumas, but fortunately Owen is back. However the key clash is the world class Bismarck Du Plessis (even the name sounds scary) versus the fairly virginal Dane Coles. As much as I admire Adriaan Strauss' mobility, he is not as physically imposing as Du Plessis. Coles seems to have been anointed the #1 NZ rake from nowhere, he's grown on me a little, but he's hardly stood up and said "Pick me, Pick me" either.

Moving to the second row, and Eben Etzebeth vs Sam Whitelock should be a cracker. Whitelock gave the Stormers second row an absolute schooling when the Crusaders travelled to Capetown in SXV round robin play, and no doubt Eben is keen for revenge. Arguably the 2 best locks in the SH, this is a mouth watering match-up.

Finally, the back-row where SA have Giant 1, Giant 2 and Giant 3 versus Messam, Cane & Read. I'm happy that the selectors went with Messam, I think it was the right call, even for experience alone, and I expect he'll be fizzing after his injury break. Besides, I was distinctly uncomfortable with Richie leading the haka, it just didn't feel, well, quite right, so having an actual Maori in charge can only be a good thing There's no question this is Sam Cane's sternest test. I don't think too many people, other than the selectors, have been won over yet, but if he comes thru with flying colours, he'll be "in" with the NZ public.

Moving to the flash boys out the back, and NZ do have an edge there. But not as much as in recent years. Morne Steyn, shock horror, has actually learned to pass the ball, while still maintaining his stealth laser off the kicking tee. The back three of Le Roux, Habana, and Kirchner looked very good last week, and Jean de Villiers has been in vintage form this year, I never quite worked out why he flopped somewhat during his sojourn with Munster.

The weather at Eden Park might play a role in the tactics, it goes without saying that NZ would like dry conditions, whereas a war of attrition in the rain would suit the Boks down to a T. However, given what I've seen this year, I expect SA to do more than just send down a barrage of up-and-unders and box kicks for Habana to chase.

I won't make a prediction this time, I'll just wish matthew8, Jacovs, Emperor1989 and I guess pretty much most of the forum best of luck - on behalf of myself, Judgement Day and Klunk_NZ. Sorry if I missed anyone out If you're a neutral, it's definitely one to watch, it's for days like these that the great game of rugby was invented!

.ak

Great write up! Can't wait...

thomond2006

Seconded, can't wait!

Grimebox

I'm going to try my hardest not to go on this piss this friday and miss this match like I have most of the other matches

Rightwing

This should be a proper test match. Home advantage to swing it in favour of ABs

duckysauce

With Richie out and the Kiwi pack not quiet there, reckon the Boks will nick this one . Should be a cracker . And as you say in your write up JDV is on fire , will Nonu contain him .

Journeyman_1

Thanks very much for writing this up. I don't post a lot here but i do lurk and almost always read match threads (at least the previews, i rarely read a 10+ page Leinster match thread hours after the game has been on for example ). This is obviously the key match in the RC and with SA already out to a big points difference advantage, I'm sure NZ just want to go 6/6 again this year!

P.Walnuts

Think the Boks might nick it, too much up front. AB pack looks oddly callow

Swiwi.

Rightwing wrote: »

This should be a proper test match. Home advantage to swing it in favour of ABs

duckysauce wrote: »

With Richie out and the Kiwi pack not quiet there, reckon the Boks will nick this one . Should be a cracker . And as you say in your write up JDV is on fire , will Nonu contain him .

Journeyman_1 wrote: »

Thanks very much for writing this up. I don't post a lot here but i do lurk and almost always read match threads (at least the previews, i rarely read a 10+ page Leinster match thread hours after the game has been on for example ). This is obviously the key match in the RC and with SA already out to a big points difference advantage, I'm sure NZ just want to go 6/6 again this year!

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Think the Boks might nick it, too much up front. AB pack looks oddly callow

I will give my prediction: NZ by single digits. I think the home venue/Eden Park factor will be the difference...and maybe Aaron Smith. Smith had an ordinary SXV, where by his own omission he was trying too hard for the struggling Highlanders, but he has been excellent in test matches this year. However, I could easily see a SA victory - the McCaw factor can't be overstated: he made the most tackles for NZ last week, despite going off injured with about 20 minutes to play.

I no longer get too fussed if Carter is out, but McCaw & Read are probably our 2 most vital forwards. McCaw single-handedly won the corresponding fixture for NZ last year in Dunedin with a sensational display. I just have some doubts whether SA has a Plan B if their power game is nullified by the MIB. Their main X-factor player is Habana, although JDV can pull tricks out of the hat at times, and Le Roux looks highly promising. I expect blood & tears at the end of this: currently NZ & SA have played 85 times for 48 wins, 34 losses and 3 draws, however that is skewed by the professional era where SA have only won 13 out of 48 tests.

Klunk_NZ

Dry conditions matter more then home advantage. If its wet SA have it by 5. Dry track means NZ by 15.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Think NZ will edge it with home advantage (sadly considering I have boks backed to win the championship)

If it rains like it did last week then I would expect the boks to win

Journeyman_1

While I agree with anyone saying that if it's wet SA have the advantage, I can't forget about the second test vs France this summer when NZ put on a kicking display that was far superior to anything I've personally seen in rugby before. Every kick was finding ground, and most in the 5 meter channel. If NZ could replicate that, then SA may be forced to pick-and-go from deep withing their own 22 for the best part of 80 minutes which can't be easy.

Swiwi.

Klunk_NZ wrote: »

Dry conditions matter more then home advantage. If its wet SA have it by 5. Dry track means NZ by 15.

Here's PR's match preview.

http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,16024_8918402,00.html

Let's hope NZ don't lose, otherwise you'll have to change your location to #2 in the IRB ranks :eek:

(NZ would fall 0.44 behind SA according to PR)

danthefan

Tomorrow morning so. I am positively giddy.

Digifriendly

All Blacks by a whisker. But SA to win return game and their BP victory over Argentina at home gives them slight edge in terms of winning the Championship.

Teferi

I want to watch this live but at the same time it's borderline criminal to get up before noon on a Saturday...

Judgement Day

Great OP Swiwi - next time add a few pics and you'll be nearly as good as Thomond.

Nervous excitement for this one - not helped by my wondering if there will be anyone to work the Skybox in my 'early house' or should I watch the 1st half on the laptop. I hope that Dan Carter has a stormer as he didn't look the real deal last week and fingers crossed for Sam Cane.

As for the mighty Boks - the great appear great because we are on our knees - could be applied to their first three games and it will be interesting to see what they can do when faced with real opposition.

rudiger2.0

Jesus Christ I just realised Sam Cane is 21. No hope for anyone else in world rugby.

I was thinking that South Africa were on the up and looking pretty formidable but seriously what is the point. NZ -13

pickarooney

How many games did Cane start in the super xv? Seemed to be on the bench a lot of the time. Looks like I'll miss the end of this game.

Swiwi.

pickarooney wrote: »

How many games did Cane start in the super xv? Seemed to be on the bench a lot of the time. Looks like I'll miss the end of this game.

Not more than 50%. Which is one reason the public is not sold on Cane yet. But a MOTM performance today will have people questioning McCaw's place on the team LOL, the word "fickle" was invented just for them.

It's that awful period between waking up and the start of the game - what to do? Normally, you can drink before a game, but if you are caught drinking beer at 8am on Saturday morning questions will be asked! You can watch Fitzpatrick et al give their learned predictions on Sky none of which will prove to be correct...in this case the other half is cooking bacon & eggs...so I will be back in time for kick-off!

Emperor1989

Sam Cane is vastly overrated and for people to even think about him taking MCCaw place is just plain stupid.

McCaw is what Messi is to Barcelona a phenon. A true great by any measures you want to use.

irishbucsfan

Cane has a loooooong way to go to be on the same level as McCaw. Especially against SA

Swiwi.

Emperor1989 wrote: »

Sam Cane is vastly overrated and for people to even think about him taking MCCaw place is just plain stupid.

McCaw is what Messi is to Barcelona a phenon. A true great by any measures you want to use.

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Cane has a loooooong way to go to be on the same level as McCaw. Especially against SA

I agree. But I guess we'll know more in 100 odd minutes. A lot of people would like Ardie Savea fast-tracked, but he might be one more for Lions 2017, rather than RWC 2015.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

**** my love of rugby. So tired

Emperor1989

I am not going to call it, It imo is too close to call.

But come on BOKKE

irishbucsfan

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

**** my love of rugby. So tired

Just get a job that lets you watch rugby while working and get paid for doing it!

Swiwi.

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Just get a job that lets you watch rugby while working and get paid for doing it!

Are you a referee :pac:

Swiwi.

SA honoured with the other Haka.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Some pre match build up, everyone seriously up for this

bilston

Justin Marshall "Let's just get it on"

Quite

This will be good

Emperor1989

All I can say.

What a fantastic morning to be alive!!.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

why must they ruin a brilliant simmering atmosphere by blaring the black eyed peas after the haka?

bilston

Scrum and lineout looking for the Boks

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

can't remember the last time I've seen a Bok team so up for a game

danthefan

SA clearly drove up there but in this case I'd say it hardly matters, NZ were powerless to do anything about it.

bilston

Spoke too soon, although the lineout itself was ok

bilston

Very clever from the ABs

danthefan

And a try NZ, funny old game.

This is how NZ operate, they are just ruthless. Awful kick by Habana and it results in an NZ try. You just can't make mistakes against them.

Swiwi.

NZ score from a driving lineout - oh the irony!

Cool lineout move BTW.

.ak

Boks out muscled or just caught napping?

P.Walnuts

Bit dodgey looking to be honest, looks like he lost control

Kiwi_knock

SA must be as sleepy as I am feeling. Good start to the game.

thomond2006

Not great by Kirchner...

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

fantastic kick from Ruan P

thomond2006

Great kick by Ruan

bilston

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Bit dodgey looking to be honest, looks like he lost control

The last angle which we only saw once was dodgy alright.

.ak

thomond2006 wrote: »

Not great by Kirchner...

Lost possession twice in 5 minutes

bilston

Bit of Ulster class by Ruan

Emperor1989

Etzebeth is always being taken down in the air....he is going to get a serious injury sooner or later.

Emperor1989

Bismark du Plessis 3 turnovers in 15 mins.

Guy is just a different league.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Best hooker in the world is well and truly back, and the Boks have the second best sitting on the bench too