NZ vs. Arg, match preview & thread, Sat 7 Sep, 0835 Irish time

Swiwi.

NEW ZEALAND: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Francis Saili, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (capt), 6 Steven Luatua, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Ben Franks, 19 Jeremy Thrush, 20 Sam Cane, 21 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Charles Piutau.

LOS PUMAS: 15 Juan Martin Hernandez, 14 Gonzalo Camacho, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Santiago Fernandez, 11 Horacio Agulla, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 7 Pablo Matera, 6 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe (capt), 5 Julio Farias Cabello, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Juan Figallo, 2 Eusebio Guinazu, 1 Marcos Ayerza.
Replacements: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Nahuel Lobo, 18 Juan Pablo Orlandi, 19 Mariano Galarza, 20 Benjamin Macome, 21 Tomas Cubelli, 22 Felipe Contepomi, 23 Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino.

Date: Saturday, September 7
Venue: Waikato Stadium, Hamilton
Kick-off: 19.35 (07.35 GMT)
Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)
Assistant referees: Romain Poite (France), James Leckie (Australia)
Television match official: Matt Goddard (Australia)
Assessor: Lyndon Bray

Transition. It's a word that has relevance to both Joe Schmidt & Steve Hansen, especially when combined with midfield. For Ireland, it is finding long-term replacements for Darcy/BOD, and for NZ it is looking past Nonu/Smith to post-RWC 2015 and a certain Lions tour in 2017. Mark my words, Nonu & SBW will almost certainly be the 12s for NZ in 2015, but that tournament should be Nonu's swansong, and SBW will no doubt be off to have a lash at American Football, or whatever else catches his fancy - regardless of whether NZ defend the William Webb Ellis or not.

Which brings us to the 1st of what I see are 4 pretenders to the Nonu throne: Francis Saili (the others are Tom Taylor, Ryan Crotty, and Bundee Aki). Saili gets a premeditated opportunity to stake his claim, with Nonu's dodgy ankle providing the necessary sop to the NZ public. Saili looked very dangerous early on in the SXV for the Blues, but is still quite raw, and could be prone to costly defensive lapses. However, he runs & tackles hard, and if he can add refinement to his game, much like Ma'a has done over the years, he could be a keeper.

The other changes to the run-on side see Dan Carter return from injury and Charlie Faumuina replace the injured Owen Franks, with Ben Franks & Beauden Barrett returning to the bench. Overall, minimal tinkering by Hansen & co, and fringe players are very much having to bide their time, in stark contrast to periods during the Graham Henry era.

For Argentina, they will be delighted to welcome back thomond2006's favourite, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe. In combination with the impressive Pablo Matera (even if he was lucky to survive his citing charge), and Juan Manuel Leguizamon, Argentina have a decent back row.

Other players to watch out for are the excellent Marcelo Bosch, who should make it his mission to ruffle Saili; lively scrumhalf Martin Landajo; and speedy winger Gonzalo Camacho. My personal favourite Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino is once again confined to the bench.

It's hard to see anything other than a comprehensive NZ victory, but for the tournament's credibility, Argentina have got to make sure they don't take a pasting similar to their first match in SA. For that, they need to be more disciplined but nevertheless continue the sterling breakdown work they showed last time out. Most of all, they just need to back themselves and give it a lash.

NZ by 20+, but I'll leave the last word to Argentina, with 3 of their great tries from the RC 2012.

thomond2006

Prediction:

Argentina: 35
Tries: Lobbe 2, Lobbe 34, Lobbe 48, Lobbe 67, Lobbe 79
Conversions: Lobbe 5

New Zealand: 0

pickarooney

Lobbe into mid-air, boss!

19543261

Have to agree with The Mond on this one. Cant see past NZ being humiliated. Its unfortunate.

Swiwi.

A few random facts, cut & pasted from NZ Herald

In 16 test matches the best Argentina has managed is a draw against the All Blacks, which came back in 1985. Argentina have only scored 210 points against the All Blacks in those 16 matches, while the All Blacks have clocked up 693.

While they may never have beaten the All Blacks, Argentina can boast that they have managed to score a try against them in nine of the last 10 games. The last time the All Blacks held Argentina try-less was in Buenos Aires in 1991.

The last time these sides met in Hamilton was in 2004 when the All Blacks won 41-7. Tony Woodcock, Andrew Hore, Richie McCaw and Dan Carter are the only All Blacks remaining from that game, although Carter was on the bench that day and never took the field.

Francis Saili will make his test debut this weekend, and is the 17th All Black debutant to take the field under head coach Steve Hansen.

Dan Carter is set to become the first player to reach 1400 points in test rugby, currently sitting on 1399. He has scored 27 points against Argentina in two games, made up of one try, five conversions, and four penalty goals.

Richie McCaw will equal George Gregan's record of 48 Rugby Championship/Tri-Nations matches this weekend. McCaw has scored 20 tries for the All Blacks but has never scored against Argentina.

Argentina have won 87 percent of their lineouts and just 60 percent of their scrums in their first two Rugby Championship games against South Africa this year.

Argentina have conceded 18 penalties and two yellow cards in their opening two Rugby Championship matches, and have also had Leonardo Senatore suspended for nine weeks for biting in the test match against South Africa last week in Mendoza. The All Blacks have conceded 21 penalties in their first two matches.

French referee Jerome Garces has officiated in one previous test match involving the All Blacks, which was last November's game against Scotland in Edinburgh. In that game the All Blacks were penalised 12 times (including a yellow card) while Scotland conceded just seven penalties.

If the All Blacks can win this weekend they will equal France's record for the most test wins (382). However, the All Blacks will have achieved this in 504 test matches whereas France have played 695 test matches for their 382 wins.

Swiwi.

Anyone else bothering to watch this? Any Argentinians on the forum?

Judgement Day

Love the Argentinian coach's name, Santiago Phelan, some Irish lineage there.

Buer

Hokey cokey time.

NZ by 30-40 I reckon but Argentina to put it up to them for 30 minutes and a sucker punch before half time.

mfceiling

Swiwi. wrote: »

Anyone else bothering to watch this? Any Argentinians on the forum?

Going to stream it now

Swiwi.

Great first scrum from Los Pumas. Ouch!

toomevara

fabulous scrummaging...

Swiwi.

Francis Saili

Well done Leguizamon

Buer

Leguizamon! He should have done a swan dive.

toomevara

Great opportunist try...g'wan the Pumas

phog

Try :-). Take your chances :-)

mfceiling

Great hands from the argies

Buer

On a side note, the Argie scrummie is unable to pass off his left. Turned his entire body to pass off his right when clearing scrappy ball of the line out there and then went for a dive pass to allow him spin it off his right when it was a standard pass off his left at the ruck.

toomevara

Pumas running at a point a minute..pretty much as expected....;)

decisions

Morning lads, just flicked it on go to see the Pumas 7-0 up :eek:

Mon the Argies!

Swiwi.

decisions wrote: »

Morning lads, just flicked it on go to see the Pumas 7-0 up :eek:

Mon the Argies!

I rather sense it's me v the forum on this one

Buer

Swiwi. wrote: »

I rather sense it's me v the forum on this one

You do JD a great disservice!

decisions

Carter's kicking is keeping the Argies in the game.

Buer

DC not looking his best yet. Of course that means he'll carve them open soon.

toomevara

Dare I use the C'' word here for the kiwis...(complacent, that is)

Swiwi.

Buer wrote: »

DC not looking his best yet. Of course that means he'll carve them open soon.

The Q has actually been rushed in hushed tones in the NZ papers recently - is DC still an automatic selection? In fairness, he needs a sustained injury-free period before the jury can return.

toomevara

Och well, d'oul yellow card has been produced..expect the flood gates to open now...plus that Puma line out, what a shambles....

Buer

Superb offload.

I will view again and identify how he must have cheated. More to come.

decisions

Brilliant offload.

Swiwi.

Nice! Man, I am seriously excited by Steven Luatua, he is getting better & better. Bit more mongrel needed yet, but he really does remind me of Ferris.

Judgement Day

Super try.

Swiwi.

Buer wrote: »

DC not looking his best yet. Of course that means he'll carve them open soon.

You were saying...

toomevara

Looks like a try to my peepers...

Buer

Swiwi. wrote: »

You were saying...

To paraphrase The Matrix: "It is inevitable, Mr. Swiwi".

mfceiling

Penalty against Richie McCaw for not rolling away...

*rolls off chair on to floor*

Buer

Sucker punch is coming....

Pudsy33

Luatua is a monster

toomevara

Got to say the Pumas are sticking in well enough despite the sense of impending crushing doom that's clearly settling over them....impressed with their line speed in defence...

Swiwi.

Argentina are still right in this. But their lineout is a shambles, which they need to fix ASAP...

...their scrum on the other hand has been excellent.

Emperor1989

Carter is not playing well at all. His place kicking has been not good, he is constantly crabbing across the field not helping with space from the outside backs.

He run still showed he has plenty of gear tho.

Swiwi.

Half-time summary

Argentina are hanging in there, and remain a chance. They scored an early try after a shocker drop ball from new boy Saili (who has otherwise been solid), but NZ countered with 2 lovely tries to Smith. Not Ben Smith for a change, though. NZ has dominated possession, but Argentina have generally retained their shape, and forced NZ into errors. Can they maintain it for the next 40, though? First points after half time will be important - if it's a NZ try, it could spell trouble for Los Pumas.

Emperor1989

Pudsy33 wrote: »

Luatua is a monster

The NZ pack has to play with one man down as he is playing a hybrid winger role.

He does look a star tho!

keith16

Score?

Swiwi.

keith16 wrote: »

Score?

15-10 to NZ.

decisions

keith16 wrote: »

Score?

15-10 NZ

Emperor1989

I am afraid that 12 for NZ doesn't look good. A bunch of mistakes from him!

Swiwi.

The weather is going to really give Argentina a chance here.

Swiwi.

Emperor1989 wrote: »

I am afraid that 12 for NZ doesn't look good. A bunch of mistakes from him!

Early days yet.

Buer

Weather is proving a great leveler. Argentina hanging in there for dear life. There won't be any huge beatings in these conditions.

toomevara

Jaysis its nice to see proper scrummaging again...

Swiwi.

Great scrum battle tonight...facilitated by the new binding call. Points victory to Argentina at the moment.

Swiwi.

OK, my bum is starting to get slightly sqeuaky here.

Edit: and then there's Kieran Read.