Virgin Media subscriber numbers

7upfree

The Cush wrote: »

UPC Q2 2014 numbers published today (in brackets, quarter on quarter +/-)
http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/LG-Earnings-Release-Q2-14-FINAL.pdf

Video Subscribers - 414,800 (-7,900)
--- Analogue Cable - 44,500 (-3,300)
--- Digital Cable - 336,700 (-2,300)
--- MMDS - 33,600 (-2,300)
Internet - 352,300 (+4,000)
Telephone - 324,500 (+11,500)

Total Subscribers - 1,091,600 (+7,600)

Premises - 523,900 (-6,700)


Also last month Liberty Global (owner of Virgin Media & UPC) aquired BSkyB's 6.4% stake in ITV for £481 million (http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/07-17-Liberty-Global-ITV-FINAL.pdf).

Don't those with digital also still have analogue cable?

icdg

Yes, as was noted earlier in the thread. This figure should actually read "analogue only". It's undereporting of the numbers actually using analogue as there are still quite a number of people using it for that old CRT they'll have in their kitchen/bedroom.

pippip

I'd also say out of those +11,500 telephone subscribers only about 500 rang with intention of looking for telephone services. The rest would have just been bundled in as part of the Horizon upgrade package, probably without alot of them even realising they were getting a phone.

The Cush

7upfree wrote: »

Don't those with digital also still have analogue cable?

From the Liberty Global press release

A Digital Cable Subscriber is not counted as an Analog Cable Subscriber.

They only count RGUs (Revenue Generating Units) aka subscribers. Digital TV subscribers don't pay an additional sub for the analogue channels so they're not counted.

Once analogue only subscribers drop to a certain level they'll probably switchoff the analogue service leaving internet only/digital subscribers who tune in the analogue channels on main/secondary TVs without any channels unless they have a multiroom sub. They same will apply to analogue only subscribers that convert over to digital cable at that time.

Five Lamps

Drop in TV subscribers seems to be the trend worldwide as people ditch pay TV packages.

In the US cable companies are experiencing the same decline. 31% are now consuming video on mobile devices that require a broadband connection - 5mb being the minimum required connection for HD connection.

UPC are obviously on the right side of the tracks since the own a lot of broadband 'pipe'. So are Sky on the wrong side of the tracks - great box and content but no pipe.

kooga

still 33,600 mmds subscribers at a minimum of €29.50 a month (basic package - including my upc discount) brings in just under €1million a month. Serious revenue stream.


are UPC just going to walk away from these customers.........the fact they are on mmds means they cannot get broadband or phone from UPC.

The Cush

kooga wrote: »

still 33,600 mmds subscribers at a minimum of €29.50 a month (basic package - including my upc discount) brings in just under €1million a month. Serious revenue stream.

Minus the running and maintenance costs of the transmission network for a small subscriber base. Increasing costs vs. reducing revenue stream.

kooga wrote: »

are UPC just going to walk away from these customers

Possibly, how much will it cost UPC to retain some spectrum at auction and upgrade transmission and reception equipment to meet the new technical conditions of that particular band sharing with mobile users.

SpaceTime

kooga wrote: »

still 33,600 mmds subscribers at a minimum of €29.50 a month (basic package - including my upc discount) brings in just under €1million a month. Serious revenue stream.


are UPC just going to walk away from these customers.........the fact they are on mmds means they cannot get broadband or phone from UPC.

They inherited a rather obsolete product that has very little scope to be upgraded and competes directly with digital satellite TV (which is available free of charge if you want to get FreeSat and combine it with SaorView for Irish TV).

From their point of view, the MMDS network is expensive, not entirely compatible with the cable network, has almost no upgrade path possible, declining subscriber numbers, ComReg want the frequencies back for other uses and the service is so lousy that it's probably doing UPC damage in terms of spillover onto its reputation.

If I'd been UPC, I would have left the MMDS service branded as Chorus for that reason.

I think you can be fairly sure they'll kill it off soon enough.

They should ensure that they are cabling up any urban MMDS subscribers though. Chorus in particular was incredibly cheap about avoiding wiring up areas. There are some developments in Cork, and for example the entire town of Carrigaline which has no CATV (even though parts of it were wired for it).

JTMan

MMDS ends, at the latest, on 18 April 2016 when the MMDS licenses expire.

The last MMDS consultation by Comreg showed that the MMDS licenses that UPC hold are pissing numerous parties off. Comreg had the right to extend the MMDS licenses for longer but choose not to.

I would be shocked if Comreg extend the MMDS licenses further given the fact that the number of MMDS users is falling off a cliff, it is pissing too many people off and it is clearly not part of UPC's strategic vision.

The Cush

JTMan wrote: »

MMDS ends, at the latest, on 18 April 2016 when the MMDS licenses expire.

Thread on the consultation here, if you haven't seen it already - http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=82129791
The review of the band started back in 2010 - http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055911838

bk

The Cush wrote: »

Once analogue only subscribers drop to a certain level they'll probably switchoff the analogue service leaving internet only/digital subscribers who tune in the analogue channels on main/secondary TVs without any channels unless they have a multiroom sub. They same will apply to analogue only subscribers that convert over to digital cable at that time.

UPC will definitely want to turn off analogue TV services as it uses up a great deal of bandwidth that will be required for DOCSIS 3.1 and 1Gb/s TV services.

In time they may also need to move their Digital TV service to a Digital Switched system to free up even more space. But switching off analogue is the first step.

The truth is UPC is much more a broadband company now then a TV supplier. I believe broadband is more profitable for them and in the end I believe eventually TV/Video services will just end up another service carried over broadband.

However I don't think they can just switch analogue off without offering a free alternative. I believe even many Digital Subscribers use the analogue service for free multi-room and it is a major selling point for UPC over Sky.

It will make sense for them to offer a bunch of free channels to subscribers via CI+ either directly or to a STB that decrypts it to analogue TV/SCART for older TV's. I'd it expect to carry a similar lineup to the existing analogue service.

The Cush

bk wrote: »

It will make sense for them to offer a bunch of free channels to subscribers via CI+ either directly or to a STB that decrypts it to analogue TV/SCART for older TV's. I'd it expect to carry a similar lineup to the existing analogue service.

In Holland and Switzerland they offer a package of free digital channels that can be viewed via any DVB-C TV or STB in the house to encourage analogue only subscribers over to digital. Those countries have large analogue cable subscriber bases.

icdg

The Cush wrote: »

In Holland and Switzerland they offer a package of free digital channels that can be viewed via any DVB-C TV or STB in the house to encourage analogue only subscribers over to digital. Those countries have large analogue cable subscriber bases.

It would have to be DVB-T here really if they did it, very few sets offer DVB-C tuners and even those that do don't tend to market it as a feature as its essentially useless in this market at present.

The Cush

icdg wrote: »

It would have to be DVB-T here really if they did it, very few sets offer DVB-C tuners and even those that do don't tend to market it as a feature as its essentially useless in this market at present.

Most likely, but less spectrum-efficient over cable probably and duplicate channels in both DVB-C and -T would have to be carried and what would the cost be to install DVB-T equipment throughout the network for such small numbers. The analogue subscriber base here is very small compared with the other UPC networks so they may simply leave it to decline naturally.

bk

The Cush wrote: »

Most likely, but less spectrum-efficient over cable probably and duplicate channels in both DVB-C and -T would have to be carried and what would the cost be to install DVB-T equipment throughout the network for such small numbers. The analogue subscriber base here is very small compared with the other UPC networks so they may simply leave it to decline naturally.

I think you are underestimating the number of digital customers who use analogue TV as a "free" multi-room. I think it is an important differentiator compared to Sky and UPC will want to have a replacement for it.

Perhaps they will go with a CI+ card with an option to buy/rent a CI+ capable STB.

Or if they go with DVB-T, that is possible too. Yes, it would mean duplicating channels, but the equivalent of 2 to 3 analogue TV channels would be enough bandwidth to carry 16 analogue channels using DVB-T.

So UPC would save the equivalent of 13 analogue channels worth of bandwidth (104Mhz worth of bandwidth, more with the elimination of space between channels).

However I don't expect UPC will do any of this or eliminate analogue until they come under pressure to release 500mb/s+ broadband services and thus need to make space for DOCSIS 3.1

A full upgrade to DOCSIS 3.1 1Gb/s services will require a lot of potentially expensive changes for UPC:

- Definitely eliminate the anaolgue TV service
- Probably remove SD channels where a HD version exist and also move to switched digital TV platform.

This will likely require many of the existing STB's to be replaced. Certainly all SD only ones, I assume the Horizon box is future proofed for this already, not sure about the HD models.

JTMan

I suspect UPC have put MMDS much higher on their priority list than analogue TV.

I am still digesting the rapid decline in TV subscribers from a route cause perspective and a crystal ball 'where are we going from here' perspective.

What do people suspect are the main causes? Some thoughts ...
(1) More people choosing FTA satellite,
(2) A small number moving to eVision,
(3) More people choosing Sky for TV,
(4) Greater use of illegal IPTV / VPN services,
(5) NetFlix and online steaming.

Where to from here? Some thoughts ...
(1) MMDS hits zero subscribers by 2016.
(2) Analogue cable hits zero subscribers by circa 2018.
(3) Digital cable TV continues its decline downwards but is it a blip or is digital cable TV starting a terminal decline curve?

icdg

MMDS has, barring a reprieve which doesn't appear to be coming, a definite execution date. Analogue doesn't. It likely has a few more years life left in it and a decision to switch off analogue now would probably get a lot of criticism. It will go at some point but I don't think it will be today or tomorrow.

bk

JTMan, there are different services and different considerations.

MMDS - This will likely be switched off in 2016 and the frequency freed up for other uses such as 4G. UPC will likely be very happy to see it go, as it has no future in it's current form and probably costs as much to run as they make from it.

I don't expect that subscribers will be quiet at 0 when it comes to switch it off. However I wonder if maybe UPC will make a deal with Sky to offer the last few customers free Sky install, etc.

However I'd expect UPC will use it's current use of the spectrum to get a deal from Comreg with priority access to the spectrum and perhaps reduced licensing fee when used for 4G. This would probably be very useful for UPC as they are expected to launch their own mobile phone service in the next couple of months.

Analogue Cable TV service - UPC aren't under any external pressure to turn this off and will likely to be slow to turn it off. The number of analogue TV users is deceiving as it probably doesn't include the many digital subscribers who use it as a "free" multi-room. It is likely a very significant selling point to many digital subscribers over Sky and UPC won't want to give that up to Sky.

The only pressure to switch it off would come internally from UPC's own needs. The question is does UPC need the space it uses to allow it to do DOCSIS 3.1 and 1Gb/s BB?

Now UPC has been replacing a lot of cable over the last few years with new high quality cable. So perhaps they have plenty of bandwidth and can do 1Gb/s without turning off analogue TV service, which would certainly make things easier and leave analogue TV to work for the medium term.

But either way in the long term demands for higher broadband speeds will only increase and eventually they will almost certainly turn it off to free up space for BB. However I think they may come up with an alternative such as CI+, DVB-T, etc. to continue that advantage over Sky.

Digital TV - There really isn't any particular pattern yet. Digital TV customer numbers dropped less then 1% this quarter, it increased less then 1% the quarter before, that.

So that seems more like the number of digital TV subs has peaked and now it is just normal churn rates. Less then 1% loss is actually really good.

The questions I have is that I think they are also approaching saturation of their broadband subs too (an impressive 50% of all homes passed and 67% of their customers). I'd figure there is still some potential growth in broadband customers left, but not for too much longer. It seems to me that they are coming to the end of their easy growth in broadband subs.

So where do they go now?

It seems likely that they will enter the mobile market soon and become a true quad play company. That is almost a no brainer.

But what beyond that? Will they simply be happy with maintaining what they currently have?

Will they start expanding their cable network into new areas?

Will they start selling services on the ESB's FTTH network and Eircoms VDSL network?

Interesting questions.

JTMan

Digital TV on an annualised basis is down in 3 of the last 4 quarters. The trend is downward.

Interesting point that broadband subs might have reached close to saturation point for UPC.

Quad play via a Three MVNO next year seems certain. Even faster broadband speeds seems certain. Expansion into more business customer services seems certain.

I can't see UPC reselling other peoples product, it goes against their ethos.

bk

JTMan wrote: »

I can't see UPC reselling other peoples product, it goes against their ethos.

I would have said the same of Vodafone just four years ago!

The Cush

UPC Q3 2014 numbers published today (in brackets, quarter on quarter +/-)
http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/LG-Earnings-Release-Q3-14-FINAL.pdf

Video Subscribers - 409,800 (-5,000)
--- Analogue Cable - 42,100 (-2,400)
--- Digital Cable - 335,800 (-900)
--- MMDS - 31,900 (-1,700)
Internet - 359,100 (+6,800)
Telephone - 336,300 (+13,600)

Total Subscribers - 1,105,200 (+7,600)

Premises - 522,100 (-1,800)

SpaceTime

They could inject a couple of DVB-T unencrypted multiplexes in place of the analogue TV, giving viewers maybe 16+ channels in digital format without a set top box

JTMan

Thanks for posting the numbers The Crush.

Trends are easiest to spot with YoY comparisons.

YoY TV 'video' subs are down 5%. It is clear that there is a small growing trend towards cutting the TV cable cord towards TV over the internet. I can see the downward trend continue for the foreseeable future.

Analogue cable TV subs are down a massive 22%. The day analogue TV gets pulled gets closer the more these numbers decline although they mask the multi room analogue subs.

Digital cable TV subs are down 1%.

MMDS TV subs are down a massive 21%. Not long till the MMDS plug is pulled.

Broadband subs are up 8%. Growth but not the explosive growth of prior years.

Landlines subs are up 21% purely thanks to bundling sales practices.

The Cush

JTMan wrote: »

MMDS TV subs are down a massive 21%. Not long till the MMDS plug is pulled.

MMDS licences expire in April 2016 and won't be renewed by Comreg.

The Cush

UPC Q4 2014 numbers published today (in brackets, quarter on quarter +/-)
http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/Liberty-Global-Earnings-Q4-14-FINAL.pdf

Video Subscribers - 403,500 (-6,300)
--- Analogue Cable - 40,100 (-2,000)
--- Digital Cable - 333,200 (-2,600)
--- MMDS - 30,200 (-1,700)
Internet - 363,400 (+4,300)
Telephone - 344,300 (+8,000)

Total Subscribers - 1,111,200 (+6,000)

Premises - 519,000 (-3,100)

pippip

The Cush wrote: »

UPC Q4 2014 numbers published today (in brackets, quarter on quarter +/-)
http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/Liberty-Global-Earnings-Q4-14-FINAL.pdf

Video Subscribers - 403,500 (-6,300)
--- Analogue Cable - 40,100 (-2,000)
--- Digital Cable - 333,200 (-2,600)
--- MMDS - 30,200 (-1,700)
Internet - 363,400 (+4,300)
Telephone - 344,300 (+8,000)

Total Subscribers - 1,111,200 (+6,000)

Premises - 519,000 (-3,100)

Would I be right in reading that as being that since the phone was automatically made part of the upgrade to horizon which includes the service whether you take the phone or not, that the +8000 there is really nothing and as such they overall lost 2000 individual subscribers?

EDIT - I see others above had the same idea. Can't wait to see 2015 Q1 figures, they'll be interesting.

JTMan

The Cush wrote: »

UPC Q4 2014 numbers published today (in brackets, quarter on quarter +/-)
http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/Liberty-Global-Earnings-Q4-14-FINAL.pdf

Video Subscribers - 403,500 (-6,300)
--- Analogue Cable - 40,100 (-2,000)
--- Digital Cable - 333,200 (-2,600)
--- MMDS - 30,200 (-1,700)
Internet - 363,400 (+4,300)
Telephone - 344,300 (+8,000)

Total Subscribers - 1,111,200 (+6,000)

Premises - 519,000 (-3,100)

Very interesting. Thanks for posting.

The main trends, that have been evident for some time now, continue:

(1) TV cord cutting. Again, less people subscribing to TV packages.
(2) Reasonably fast analogue and MMDS declines.
(3) Continued broadband internet growth.
(4) 'Rigged' landline and subscriber growth through forced landline bundles.
(5) Declines in overall premises numbers.

It won't be long until broadband subs outstrip TV subs. TV subs seem to be on a slow paced terminal decline curve rather than cyclical decline.

bk

JTMan wrote: »

It won't be long until broadband subs outstrip TV subs. TV subs seem to be on a slow paced terminal decline curve rather than cyclical decline.

Which is why I think UPC is more focused on broadband now then TV services and why UPC is more of a broadband company now.

TV in the end will just be another service carried over broadband, like phone, etc.

Sure most of the money selling TV services end up going to Sky anyway, so I expect UPC aren't to worried about this trend as long as they continue to grow broadband customers.

JTMan

bk wrote: »

TV in the end will just be another service carried over broadband, like phone, etc.

Absolutely, TV is trending away from bundled TV packages towards unbundled streaming solutions. Specifically, TV is trending towards online piracy solutions and OTT solutions such as NetFlix. UPC looses on both counts.

7upfree

JTMan wrote: »

Absolutely, TV is trending away from bundled TV packages towards unbundled streaming solutions. Specifically, TV is trending towards online piracy solutions and OTT solutions such as NetFlix. UPC looses on both counts.

And Sky also.