SBP Red C Poll - 29th June

Scofflaw

golfball37 wrote: »

A good point, however whilst almost everyone can understand the need to secure BOI and AIB I personally don't know anybody who had money on deposit in Anglo and still can't fathom why they were included in the Bank guarantee?

That remains, as they say, the €64 billion question. It could, literally, have just been a stupid decision to leave no bank behind because the government wanted to protect Ireland's reputation as a banking hub.

To be honest, it would actually have been unusual to decide to let a bank fail. Ireland had no bank resolution mechanism - one could have been created fairly rapidly, I imagine, but a proposal to do that would almost certainly have run headlong into concerns from the banks. As I say, there is a very solid and formal long-term connection between banking interests and the government here without needing to look for individual corrupt linkages - being "bank-friendly" has been an overt and major plank of Irish state strategy for at least a quarter century.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Sierra Oscar

The Sunday Independent are carrying the following Millward Brown opinion poll tomorrow:

FF - 29% (+2)
FG - 26% (-1)
SF - 19% (+2)
LAB - 8% (-3)
IND - 19% (+1)

Poll suggests Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin support up but fall in backing for Fine Gael, Labour and Seanad abolition


A pretty terrible poll for Labour. If they are on 8% now, what can we expect them to be on after the next budget? On those figures they will lose over half of their council seats in the local elections which are now under a year away. If they dip even just another couple of percent or so they could lose three quarters of their local council seats. The poll shows that all of their grandstanding regarding the Anglo Tapes has backfired.

The poll is good news for FF & SF, although its just one poll - and this thread highlights how poll results can swing from one month to the next. I am still holding firm to my belief that SF will replace the Labour party in Irish politics. FG will be happy that the abortion debate is not undermining their support all that much.

Scofflaw

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The Sunday Independent are carrying the following Millward Brown opinion poll tomorrow:

FF - 29% (+3)
FG - 26% (-1)
SF - 19% (+2)
LAB - 8% (-3)
IND - 19% (+1)

Poll suggests Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin support up but fall in backing for Fine Gael, Labour and Seanad abolition


A pretty terrible poll for Labour. If they are on 8% now, what can we expect them to be on after the next budget? On those figures they will lose over half of their council seats in the local elections which are now under a year away. If they dip even just another couple of percent or so they could lose three quarters of their local council seats. The poll shows that all of their grandstanding regarding the Anglo Tapes has backfired.

The poll is good news for FF & SF, although its just one poll - and this thread highlights how poll results can swing from one month to the next. I am still holding firm to my belief that SF will replace the Labour party in Irish politics. FG will be happy that the abortion debate is not undermining their support all that much.

To be honest, Sierra, you can't simply compare a Millward Brown poll with a RedC one, because their methodologies for determining likely support are rather different.

Of the two, RedC have generally been more accurate in predicting actual outcomes.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Sierra Oscar

Scofflaw wrote: »

To be honest, Sierra, you can't simply compare a Millward Brown poll with a RedC one, because their methodologies for determining likely support are rather different.

Of the two, RedC have generally been more accurate in predicting actual outcomes.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Where did I compare them?

The changes are compared to the last Millward Brown poll. I agree with you that RedC is the industry leader though.

Scofflaw

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Where did I compare them?

The changes are compared to the last Millward Brown poll. I agree with you that RedC is the industry leader though.

Ah, I beg your pardon, then - I thought you were comparing MW with RedC. I don't hold much confidence in MW, I admit, so I wouldn't necessarily consider the variation in them meaningful.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Sierra Oscar

Scofflaw wrote: »

Ah, I beg your pardon, then - I thought you were comparing MW with RedC. I don't hold much confidence in MW, I admit, so I wouldn't necessarily consider the variation in them meaningful.

cordially,
Scofflaw

No worries! At least the Sindo are using an actual market research company to do their polls these days. Do you remember when they were using 'Quantum Research', the company that no one ever heard of? Most people reckoned they were just pulling the figures out of the air back then!

raymon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The Sunday Independent are carrying the following Millward Brown opinion poll tomorrow:

FF - 29% (+3)
FG - 26% (-1)
SF - 19% (+2)
LAB - 8% (-3)
IND - 19% (+1)

Poll suggests Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin support up but fall in backing for Fine Gael, Labour and Seanad abolition


A pretty terrible poll for Labour. If they are on 8% now, what can we expect them to be on after the next budget? On those figures they will lose over half of their council seats in the local elections which are now under a year away. If they dip even just another couple of percent or so they could lose three quarters of their local council seats. The poll shows that all of their grandstanding regarding the Anglo Tapes has backfired.

The poll is good news for FF & SF, although its just one poll - and this thread highlights how poll results can swing from one month to the next. I am still holding firm to my belief that SF will replace the Labour party in Irish politics. FG will be happy that the abortion debate is not undermining their support all that much.

Your numbers are wrong Sierra , you have added one point increase to FF ( surprise surprise)

raymon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

No worries! At least the Sindo are using an actual market research company to do their polls these days. Do you remember when they were using 'Quantum Research', the company that no one ever heard of? Most people reckoned they were just pulling the figures out of the air back then!

I don't have much trust in a FF newsletter running polls that shows FF higher than other polls.

Sierra Oscar

raymon wrote: »

Your numbers are wrong Sierra , you have added one point increase to FF ( surprise surprise)

Apologies, fixed that. I read this ...

A Sunday Independent/Millward Brown opinion poll suggests that Fianna Fáil has opened up a three-point lead over Fine Gael.

... and I must have mistaken it for a (+3).

raymon wrote: »

I don't have much trust in a FF newsletter running polls that shows FF higher than other polls.

You say this in every thread where you don't like the results of a poll. Millward Brown is a professional marketing research company who carried out the research.

raymon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Apologies, fixed that. I read this ...



... and I must have mistaken it for a (+3).



You say this in every thread where you don't like the results of a poll. Millward Brown is a professional marketing research company who carried out the research.

Not true.

I say it when the FF Sunday Independent poll reports a higher number for FF than other non biased newspapers using other polling companies.

I would not trust An Poblacht to commission a poll either.

Sierra Oscar

raymon wrote: »

Not true.

I say it when the FF Sunday Independent poll reports a higher number for FF than other non biased newspapers using other polling companies.

I would not trust An Poblacht to commission a poll either.

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree then. Their methodology may not be as robust as RedC, but I personally don't think a large global market research company would risk its professional credibility by issuing figures as demanded by a single client.

raymon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree then. Their methodology may not be as robust as RedC, but I personally don't think a large global market research company would risk its professional credibility by issuing figures as demanded by a single client.

People can often add their bias to stack the questions a certain way.

You yourself in your excitement at the proposal of an increase in FF support , exaggerated that increase ( granted your exaggeration was probably unintentional)

My point is that people with a certain strong bias should not commission polls.

nuac

This poll is bad news for Labour

It is difficult to extrapolate LE results from polling, as many local and personal factors come into play. However it seems they will lose some seats to other parties and independents.

Angst within Labour will have a destablising effect on the FG/LP coalition

FG looking tired, Enda needs to do something about Reilly, Hogan, Shatter. Can he? or is he under an obligation to them.

Apart from Lucinda, there is some talk here in the West that matters are still unresolved with Mulherin and O'Mahoney. This issue should have been left to a free vote

Scofflaw

raymon wrote: »

Not true.

I say it when the FF Sunday Independent poll reports a higher number for FF than other non biased newspapers using other polling companies.

I would not trust An Poblacht to commission a poll either.

Like Sierra, I'd have to say that while their methodology may not be as sound as that of other polling companies, the idea that they simply report what their client wants to hear isn't really credible, since long-term no polling company can stay in business by doing that.

The Indo stable may prefer Millward because their methods give a higher result for FF, but that doesn't mean Millward are cooking their survey results to please.

cordially,
Scofflaw

raymon

Scofflaw wrote: »

Like Sierra, I'd have to say that while their methodology may not be as sound as that of other polling companies, the idea that they simply report what their client wants to hear isn't really credible, since long-term no polling company can stay in business by doing that.

The Indo stable may prefer Millward because their methods give a higher result for FF, but that doesn't mean Millward are cooking their survey results to please.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Cooking the actual survey results is something different , that would imply changing results after the fact.

What I don't trust is the part that the Independent may have played in the survey methodology itself .

I am of the opinion that it is not a coincidence that a FF biased newspaper has higher results for FF compared to non biased newspapers