SBP Red C Poll - 29th June

Sierra Oscar

The Sunday Business Post is carrying the following RedC opinion poll tomorrow:

FG: 28% (+2)
FF: 22% (-4)
SF: 17% (+1)
Lab: 12% (+1)
IND: 21% (NC)

The fieldwork was conducted Monday - Wednesday, so the fall in FF support is not all that surprising considering the week that was on it. FF will be relatively happy that the drop in support was not more, and that the support went to government parties where it can be won back in the run up to the budget. FG will be somewhat glad that the support went back to them instead of other opposition parties, although it will be interesting to monitor their figures over the coming few months with the budget leaks likely to start. Although I am surprised that Labour aren't up more - they were really pushing the Anglo Tapes this week and I suspect they were expecting sizable gains with the knowledge that polling was occurring during the week.

Here is the B&A poll which will also be in the Sunday Times tomorrow.

FG: 27%
FF: 24%
SF: 16%
Lab: 7%
Ind: 26%

Here is the B&A leaders satisfaction ratings:

Government: 24% (-1)
Kenny: 37% (-2)
Martin: 43% (-1)
Adams: 43% (2)
Gilmore: 26% (-3)

All the leaders took a bit of a knock, although Gilmore's free-fall continues. That government satisfaction is not great either heading into budget season.

irishfeen

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The Sunday Business Post is carrying the following RedC opinion poll tomorrow:

FG: 28% (+2)
FF: 22% (-4)
SF: 17% (+1)
Lab: 12% (+1)
IND: 21% (NC)

The fieldwork was conducted Monday - Wednesday, so the fall in FF support is not all that surprising. Government will be somewhat glad that the support went back to them instead of other opposition parties.

I think Times is also carrying a poll tomorrow.

At least FF are dropping .. there is a god.

pablomakaveli

FF's drop is a positive there, but will the drop continue is the question?

Sir Humphrey Appleby

The only real positive is Labours continued demise.
long may that last

smcgiff

pablomakaveli wrote: »

FF's drop is a positive there, but will the drop continue is the question?

Of course not. The drop is due to the goldfish that had returned to FF, but had forgotten the sheer incompetence of the FF government. That they need such reminding means that they will forget again by the next poll/election.

Le_Dieux

Fair and reasonable surmisation SO.

I would contend that whatever chance Labour have of making a comeback, nothing will happen while Gilmore is 'leader'. I WAS a Labour voter, but ( for me) what he did to Róisín Shortall showed his true colours, that he doesn't care one iota about Labour or the people of this country, only ME FÉIN.

I should think that Labour are heading for the same end as the greens or the PD's unless they do something and QUICK about gilmore, and I would also include rabbitte in that comment also.

raymon

Excellent result seeing FF/Anglo losing ground.

golfball37

The FF/Sindo were at pains to point out the lack of connection between FF and Anglo at the weekend. I counted 8 articles including the headline grabber about Brian Lenihan which tried to distance the "Republican Party" and their decision to apply the bailout to a developers rogue bank.

Hopefully these tapes will remind people of how utterly corrupt FF were or at the very least how utterly incompentent.

Godge

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The Sunday Business Post is carrying the following RedC opinion poll tomorrow:

FG: 28% (+2)
FF: 22% (-4)
SF: 17% (+1)
Lab: 12% (+1)
IND: 21% (NC)

The fieldwork was conducted Monday - Wednesday, so the fall in FF support is not all that surprising considering the week that was on it. FF will be relatively happy that the drop in support was not more, and that the support went to government parties where it can be won back in the run up to the budget. FG will be somewhat glad that the support went back to them instead of other opposition parties, although it will be interesting to monitor their figures over the coming few months with the budget leaks likely to start. Although I am surprised that Labour aren't up more - they were really pushing the Anglo Tapes this week and I suspect they were expecting sizable gains with the knowledge that polling was occurring during the week.

Here is the B&A poll which will also be in the Sunday Times tomorrow.

FG: 27%
FF: 24%
SF: 16%
Lab: 7%
Ind: 26%

Here is the B&A leaders satisfaction ratings:

Government: 24% (-1)
Kenny: 37% (-2)
Martin: 43% (-1)
Adams: 43% (2)
Gilmore: 26% (-3)

All the leaders took a bit of a knock, although Gilmore's free-fall continues. That government satisfaction is not great either heading into budget season.

I would guess that the drop in FF support will continue.

Up until now, they didn't have a defence against the charge of incompetence, now they can say that they were stupid enough to be duped by a collection of bankers.

Shouldn't help their poll rating though.

Mr.Micro

golfball37 wrote: »

The FF/Sindo were at pains to point out the lack of connection between FF and Anglo at the weekend. I counted 8 articles including the headline grabber about Brian Lenihan which tried to distance the "Republican Party" and their decision to apply the bailout to a developers rogue bank.

Hopefully these tapes will remind people of how utterly corrupt FF were or at the very least how utterly incompentent.

The problem for FF is that, at the bailout decision meeting, no minutes were kept and the whole business is still murky. So using selected tapes of the Anglo clowns will not do much to distance FF from blame, as transparency over the whole decision is still lacking...... as such it does not do much to assuage the publics opinion of wrongdoing.

Sierra Oscar

Mr.Micro wrote: »

The problem for FF is that, at the bailout decision meeting, no minutes were kept and the whole business is still murky

That is incorrect. Freedom of Information requests from the opposition, not only coming from Fianna Fáil, demonstrate that there are at least well over a dozen files on the matter within the department. We have known this since Enda first lied about the documentation after the last election, when FOI's were put in which forced Enda into an embarrassing retraction. Enda still refuses to publish this documentation by the way.

FF have nothing to fear from an inquiry. The government should move to implement an independent inquiry at the earliest opportunity.

Scofflaw

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

That is incorrect. Freedom of Information requests from the opposition, not only coming from Fianna Fáil, demonstrate that there are at least well over a dozen files on the matter within the department. We have known this since Enda first lied about the documentation after the last election, when FOI's were put in which forced Enda into an embarrassing retraction. Enda still refuses to publish this documentation by the way.

FF have nothing to fear from an inquiry. The government should move to implement an independent inquiry at the earliest opportunity.

Sorry, are you criticising the current government for not releasing documents the previous government had not released either?

amused,
Scofflaw

raymon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

FF have nothing to fear from an inquiry. The government should move to implement an independent inquiry at the earliest opportunity.

Wrong and wrong.

FF have everything to fear. The strong cozy links between FF and Anglo are only starting to emerge.

Thomas Byrne was on Vincent Brown spluttering and mumbling about why an Oireachtas enquiry is bad for the people of Ireland. His terrible performance just shows how much Fianna Fail fear this inquiry.

Sierra Oscar

Scofflaw wrote: »

Sorry, are you criticising the current government for not releasing documents the previous government had not released either?

amused,
Scofflaw

Yes I am - because the current government continually called for the release of the documents prior to, and during, the last election. Yet over two years later they have yet to follow up on the matter.

Godge

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Yes I am - because the current government continually called for the release of the documents prior to, and during, the last election. Yet over two years later they have yet to follow up on the matter.

Freedom of Information decisions are made by civil service officials and ultimately the Freedom of Information Commissioner not by Ministers.

Godge

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

FF have nothing to fear from an inquiry. The government should move to implement an independent inquiry at the earliest opportunity.

In a sense, you are right.

Look, everybody knows that the previous FF government was either incompetent, stupid or duped. In that sense, FF has nothing to fear, we only learn which of the three options is closest to the truth.

golfball37

SO- Do you still believe the crisis at Anglo wasn't discussed when Brian Cowan played golf with Sean Fitzpatrick in July 08?

The fact he initially denied the meeting raised an alarm with me at the time, that and the fact the Ango share price had dropped by 50% the previous day...

We'll be waiting a long time for the compliant media to ask a FF TD that question.

Sierra Oscar

golfball37 wrote: »

SO- Do you still believe the crisis at Anglo wasn't discussed when Brian Cowan played golf with Sean Fitzpatrick in July 08?

Where did I ever say that I believed that? Also, how am I meant to know what was discussed? I want an inquiry now to answer those sort of questions. Cowen has indicated that he is ready to co-operate with an inquiry, he is just waiting for one to start. So lets go.

The only way to get to the bottom of this will be for a comprehensive inquiry, but I get the feeling that we wont get one.

Godge

golfball37 wrote: »

SO- Do you still believe the crisis at Anglo wasn't discussed when Brian Cowan played golf with Sean Fitzpatrick in July 08?

The fact he initially denied the meeting raised an alarm with me at the time, that and the fact the Ango share price had dropped by 50% the previous day...

We'll be waiting a long time for the compliant media to ask a FF TD that question.

forgot about this, should add a fourth and fifth option.

The last FF government was either incompetent, stupid, duped, corrupt or a mixture of some of all of the above.

Either way, they should not be let anywhere government for at least twenty years. And either way, they have nothing to lose from an inquiry (unless there is someone out there who doesn't realise what they are).

raymon

Fianna Fail and Anglo were two peas in a pod.

It is well known that Fintan Drury ( ex Anglo board ) and Cowen were close and cosy. In fact Cowen himself described him as a good friend. They have been friends for over 30 years

Mr.Micro

raymon wrote: »

Fianna Fail and Anglo were two peas in a pod.

It is well known that Fintan Drury ( ex Anglo board ) and Cowen were close and cosy. In fact Cowen himself described him as a good friend. They have been friends for over 30 years

Cowen could at any time put us all straight with what happened. Until the minutes ( comprehensive I hope and not just selective and meaningless) are published I will believe the whole thing to be murky. It might simply be that FF will be shown up to be absolutely inept when it came to dealing with the banks.

raymon

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Cowen could at any time put us all straight with what happened. Until the minutes ( comprehensive I hope and not just selective and meaningless) are published I will believe the whole thing to be murky. It might simply be that FF will be shown up to be absolutely inept when it came to dealing with the banks.

The inquiry should show that the reason that Fianna Fail bankrupted the country was in an attempt to bail out their buddies in Anglo.

Let's say that Fianna Fail had not been cosy friends / banqueteers / golf chums do you think they would have included them in the guarantee ???

Mr.Micro

raymon wrote: »

The inquiry should show that the reason that Fianna Fail bankrupted the country was in an attempt to bail out their buddies in Anglo.

Let's say that Fianna Fail had not been cosy friends / banqueteers / golf chums do you think they would have included them in the guarantee ???

I agree that there are many questions to be answered re the blanket guarantee. If there are minutes of some sort, it is bewildering as to why they have not been released.

raymon

Mr.Micro wrote: »

I agree that there are many questions to be answered re the blanket guarantee. If there are minutes of some sort, it is bewildering as to why they have not been released.

Indeed , looking forward to it all coming out soon. Whatever was documented.

Scofflaw

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Yes I am - because the current government continually called for the release of the documents prior to, and during, the last election. Yet over two years later they have yet to follow up on the matter.

And now the party of the previous government which resisted the calls made by the then opposition is in opposition, and calling for the release of the tapes they resisted releasing, which is now being resisted by those who originally called for their release.

And if there were a change of government tomorrow, those positions would also swap round with all the speed of a sex addict at a swingers' party.

amused,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw

raymon wrote: »

The inquiry should show that the reason that Fianna Fail bankrupted the country was in an attempt to bail out their buddies in Anglo.

Let's say that Fianna Fail had not been cosy friends / banqueteers / golf chums do you think they would have included them in the guarantee ???

Yes, I do. I don't think Anglo was well-connected, and I think that comes across in the tapes.

cordially,
Scofflaw

raymon

Scofflaw wrote: »

Yes, I do. I don't think Anglo was well-connected, and I think that comes across in the tapes.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I think time will tell that although Drumm himself was not well connected , there were strong connections with Fianna Fail and Cowen especially.

Scofflaw

raymon wrote: »

I think time will tell that although Drumm himself was not well connected , there were strong connections with Fianna Fail and Cowen especially.

Maybe - but personally I would hope for a more interesting explanation.

cordially,
Scofflaw

raymon

Scofflaw wrote: »

Maybe - but personally I would hope for a more interesting explanation.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Cowen and one Anglo board member( Drury) had been friends for 30 years. A man who was reported to be a Cowen advisor when he left Anglo.
It was not uncommon for Cowen to attend meetings with Anglo and other financial institutions according to the FF government at the time.
Cowen was a keynote speaker at an Anglo banquet where various executives briefed the then Minister for Finance.
Cowen had been to Druids Glen golf club with Fingers on at least one occasion.


Given the intimate nature of Cowen's relationship with the bank I find it hard to believe that he didn't know that the bank was a basket case. Especially when Merrill Lynch had told him so.

A sworn testimony by Cowen with some targeted questions will be very revealing.

Scofflaw

raymon wrote: »

Cowen and one Anglo board member( Drury) had been friends for 30 years. A man who was reported to be a Cowen advisor when he left Anglo.
It was not uncommon for Cowen to attend meetings with Anglo and other financial institutions according to the FF government at the time.
Cowen was a keynote speaker at an Anglo banquet where various executives briefed the then Minister for Finance.
Cowen had been to Druids Glen golf club with Fingers on at least one occasion.


Given the intimate nature of Cowen's relationship with the bank I find it hard to believe that he didn't know that the bank was a basket case. Especially when Merrill Lynch had told him so.

A sworn testimony by Cowen with some targeted questions will be very revealing.

None of that shows anything that I would characterise as "an intimate relationship" with Anglo. The banks - all the banks - have a permanent in to the Department of the Taoiseach through the IFSC Clearing House Group, which is chaired by the Secretary General of the Department of the Taoiseach - and its proposals are regularly adopted verbatim into Irish financial legislation.

To be honest, I think that's probably a more meaningful relationship than the one you've outlined. The banking-State nexus is very solid in Ireland, so solid that the juicy tales of golf outings are little more than a peripheral expression of it. Senior bankers have access to the upper echelons of the State if they want it, because the Irish State has adopted being a banking hub as major national strategy, not because individual Taoiseachs are personal friends with bankers.

cordially,
Scofflaw

golfball37

Scofflaw wrote: »

None of that shows anything that I would characterise as "an intimate relationship" with Anglo. The banks - all the banks - have a permanent in to the Department of the Taoiseach through the IFSC Clearing House Group, which is chaired by the Secretary General of the Department of the Taoiseach - and its proposals are regularly adopted verbatim into Irish financial legislation.

To be honest, I think that's probably a more meaningful relationship than the one you've outlined. The banking-State nexus is very solid in Ireland, so solid that the juicy tales of golf outings are little more than a peripheral expression of it. Senior bankers have access to the upper echelons of the State if they want it, because the Irish State has adopted being a banking hub as major national strategy, not because individual Taoiseachs are personal friends with bankers.

cordially,
Scofflaw

A good point, however whilst almost everyone can understand the need to secure BOI and AIB I personally don't know anybody who had money on deposit in Anglo and still can't fathom why they were included in the Bank guarantee?