MTC Summer Forecast -- some hope for improvement

Quickelles

otto_26 wrote: »

So in summary the above says:

We are going to get a warm summer with dry spells
BUT could get a cold and wet summer also!!!!

How does one get a job in your line of work? think I would be good at it!!!

Otto - I'd say astrology is more your line than meteorology based on that effort :cool:

M.T. Cranium

"Some hope for improvement" has got to be the understatement of the year on this forum at any rate.

I'm just reviewing the actual numbers and finding that the general trends are similar to predictions (from 1 June to mid-July, looks like temps are about +1.5, rainfall about 70% and sunshine about 130%).

The actual time distribution has been two notable warm, dry spells (1-10 June and about 4-15 July so far). In between the weather was somewhat on the dull side of normal and rainfall edged up to about normal with temperatures in that middle portion around -0.5 anomalies. The anomalies in the two warm spells are both around 2 to 3 above normal overall, and that includes some coastal stations that are not as warm as inland.

Comments about drought and a potentially exceptional summer seem on track, time will tell how this summer will compare to 1995 for example, 2006 might not be the best example as the exceptional June and July were followed by a more average sort of August.

As to what I now think about the long-range forecast, will hold in general to the theme of generally warm and dry, a few more interruptions possible, with a trend over the next 45-60 days to more normal rainfall amounts towards the end of the period in particular.

Then, as published elsewhere, my autumn forecast calls for September to become increasingly zonal (westerly flow dominant) and showery with some gusty winds at times and more normal temperatures especially towards the end of the month. A colder spell is indicated by my research from very late September towards about the tenth of October, possibly a northerly interlude there, and then an "Indian summer" pattern for a few weeks in later October and early November.

Won't comment on the winter yet as I have some research files to reboot to generate the necessary output (some of them are reaching ends of long columns in excel files and I have to check everything for Dec 2013 to Feb 2014 to make sure all the factors are staying with the program -- this I will leave until September since I am also planning to test out one or two new factors).

Anyway, this thread kind of died out back in May evidently, possibly because there was a certain amount of contamination from trolls who decided to over-emphasize (in my opinion) the variety of weather being suggested in the original forecast. I feel that the call was valid and that the events in June more or less played out as suggested, the older cool/wet regime giving way with some resistance to this massive warm/dry signal. And I have to note in passing that most of the contrarians were not regular weather forum posters which makes me question motivation and origins to some extent. You can perhaps understand my frustration in context, but as to the regulars on the weather forum, I have nothing but the highest regard for this forum and its regular participants and you've added more to my situation than you can ever realize, so if I can give a bit back, that's satisfying.

farmchoice

Hi,
I am not a regular poster in this forum but I am a regular reader and check out your forecasts most days. I would just like to say that you are an invaluable asset to boards.ie and that you contribute in a large way to the weather forum being one of the most intelligent and considered forums on boards.
Those who don’t understand anything about weather forecasting tend to show up when we have any kind of unusual weather pattern and like to post nonsense, as you know the secret is to ignore them completely.

Thanks for everything and for all our sakes keep at it.

Cosmo Kramer

MT - your forecast looks bang on so far this summer...and its not the first time you've called things right well in advance. Great stuff again.

shmaupel

MT, I look forward to your forecasts every morning, living on a coastal farm I have to say your input is a huge asset to me, cheers!

M.T. Cranium

I have to stress, the research is nowhere near finished and it's a bit of a race against time now given that this old dude is 64 years young, fortunately in good health and able to spend as much time on this as possible with the exception of a few issues that will occupy my time in September. I am going to be involved in a very complicated freedom of speech vs political correctness type trial in Ottawa which is as far from me as it is from you folks, which may cut into my ability to do much on the internet or my research files (most of which are not accessible off-site here at home). On the other hand, the stay in Ottawa will allow me to take side trips back to places where I used to live (and golf, more to the point) and all of that in the start of the fall colour season, so that's a plus for me.

After they exile me from Canada come October, I may be begging for Irish asylum, sure they are full of weather forecasters already. (the asylums)

And that's yer joke of the day from MTC.

vicwatson

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I have to stress, the research is nowhere near finished and it's a bit of a race against time now given that this old dude is 64 years young, fortunately in good health and able to spend as much time on this as possible with the exception of a few issues that will occupy my time in September. I am going to be involved in a very complicated freedom of speech vs political correctness type trial in Ottawa which is as far from me as it is from you folks, which may cut into my ability to do much on the internet or my research files (most of which are not accessible off-site here at home). On the other hand, the stay in Ottawa will allow me to take side trips back to places where I used to live (and golf, more to the point) and all of that in the start of the fall colour season, so that's a plus for me.

After they exile me from Canada come October, I may be begging for Irish asylum, sure they are full of weather forecasters already. (the asylums)

And that's yer joke of the day from MTC.

Goes without saying you'd be more than welcome here anytime, and we have great golf courses to boot !! (And fantastic weather, but you knew that;) )

M.T. Cranium

If we go anywhere in 2014, it will be Ireland. We've been kept close to home base for this summer by family health issues (my wife's dad was in failing health during the spring and passed away in June). That postponed the Ireland trip idea which was in our minds back in the winter months. As some of you know, I do photo editing on a rather large scale on the IWO facebook site, and this has only heightened our desire to visit soon. And yes, I would definitely want to play a round or two, my concern would be that my game is not what it was five years ago due to neglect and even that was nothing too special, so I might want to do my golfing some place out of view.

Anyway, I do hope to see all these wonderful places that I learn about through the photos and chat (and the few that I remember from my one visit long ago).

vicwatson

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If we go anywhere in 2014, it will be Ireland. We've been kept close to home base for this summer by family health issues (my wife's dad was in failing health during the spring and passed away in June). That postponed the Ireland trip idea which was in our minds back in the winter months. As some of you know, I do photo editing on a rather large scale on the IWO facebook site, and this has only heightened our desire to visit soon. And yes, I would definitely want to play a round or two, my concern would be that my game is not what it was five years ago due to neglect and even that was nothing too special, so I might want to do my golfing some place out of view.

Anyway, I do hope to see all these wonderful places that I learn about through the photos and chat (and the few that I remember from my one visit long ago).

Plenty of courses for all levels so don't worry about that !! You'll have tonnes of offers for golfing partners too;)

M.T. Cranium

Might be fun then to organize a boards/weather golf event, maybe a fun scramble format with the meal afterwards open to non-golfers so we can all socialize and complain about the weather. I like playing scramble events here, and I probably do better in them than on my own scores. Also if I knew I was playing scramble golf and not the regular kind, I would be less likely to bother lugging my clubs along, just rent or borrow some instead.

Somewhere that would minimize the travel distance for anyone interested, and not too technically difficult (or expensive) would be preferable.

This is something I can't do from here but if somebody there wanted to take it on, I could pretty much say mid to late August would be our most likely time to visit. That's probably the busiest time almost for much of the holiday trade I suppose.

This should probably be in the other thread I suppose, maybe we should move the discussion there or just PM, wonder how many boards/weather/golf people there would be. I know about four or five at a minimum.