MTC Summer Forecast -- some hope for improvement

M.T. Cranium

I had promised to issue a long-range forecast for the summer of 2013 in mid-May and here are the results of my research combined with a rather subjective look at the implications of the recent trends in this very cool spring season.

In general, I believe there will be considerable improvement of the weather pattern ahead, and some chance of prolonged warm, dry spells. At the very least, I think this will be one of the better summer seasons in recent years, and there's some chance of it being an exceptional summer.

I have to respect the strength of the recent cold signal, which although not overly wet has maintained rainfalls at normal values which makes the season seem rather wet since the combination has led to reduced "evapo-transpiration." This signal may not just disappear on the first or even second instance of more settled weather under higher pressures. It may even try to dig in and fight back. So I want to temper the outlook by saying most likely a combination of warm, dry spells and cooler, unsettled spells, although I could see theoretically how the warm, dry signal could lock in and repel any returns to cool, unsettled weather for more than a few days here and there.

No particular timing was suggested by the research, which shows a general trend to above normal temperatures from June to August and into parts of September, so more or less the entire summer season.

Since we have this situation of signals for above normal temperatures but a lingering trace of the long-wave trough, it might be expected that rainfall, even if it averages below normal, could include one or two heavy falls in brief episodes of severe storm activity. This would be more likely in the inland northern half of the country. Drought is also possible given the strength of the warm signal at the foundation of this forecast, and that would be most likely to develop in the southern third and possibly around Dublin.

Anyway, that's the outlook, I hope that the actual results are not too far removed from this warm, sunny and relatively dry prediction. Just to place some numbers for later verification, I will say that June, July and August will each average 1.2 degrees above long-term normals, rainfall will be 70 to 90 per cent of normal, and sunshine will be 10-30 per cent above normal values.

The Browser

In Dubai now. Travelling to Ireland on 31 May for two weeks for my wedding (7 June) and some general vacation time. My fiancé is from the Philippines and has never experienced a temperate climate.

Any outlook for the first two weeks of June?

Bandito909

You the man MT.

Just what we've been wanting to hear.

slowburner

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I have to respect the strength of the recent cold signal, which although not overly wet has maintained rainfalls at normal values which makes the season seem rather wet since the combination has led to reduced "evapo-transpiration."

It's been more like a drought here in recent weeks.
I can tell you that many plants are struggling for water and I have never seen ploughed fields so dry at this time of year.
Driving on boreens and the like, throws up dust clouds behind.

Rikand

The Browser wrote: »

In Dubai now. Travelling to Ireland on 31 May for two weeks for my wedding (7 June) and some general vacation time. My fiancé is from the Philippines and has never experienced a temperate climate.

Any outlook for the first two weeks of June?

its a long way to go - but you never know.... early report is for warmth

jArgHA

Thanks a million MT, I had been looking forward to your Summer forecast and it's better than I could have hoped for Fingers crossed that it turns out as predicted!

Bejubby

Hopfully it will happen.
the past few days here in the south east have been nice and sunny but still a moderate gusty wind,but il take that.
This morning is a cracker of a day with blue skys and a gentle breeze.
Anyway off to work now!

gurramok

If it happens, we bloody earned it! Sick of suffering from below normal cold temps going back as far as October!

M.T. Cranium

I agree, you've earned the right to a wonderful summer and I hope it's at least better than most of the past five or six. But you know me by now, if I sensed it was going to be awful I wouldn't hold back. Maybe I should predict awful weather to give you a fighting chance.

event

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I had promised to issue a long-range forecast for the summer of 2013 in mid-May and here are the results of my research combined with a rather subjective look at the implications of the recent trends in this very cool spring season.

In general, I believe there will be considerable improvement of the weather pattern ahead, and some chance of prolonged warm, dry spells. At the very least, I think this will be one of the better summer seasons in recent years, and there's some chance of it being an exceptional summer.

I have to respect the strength of the recent cold signal, which although not overly wet has maintained rainfalls at normal values which makes the season seem rather wet since the combination has led to reduced "evapo-transpiration." This signal may not just disappear on the first or even second instance of more settled weather under higher pressures. It may even try to dig in and fight back. So I want to temper the outlook by saying most likely a combination of warm, dry spells and cooler, unsettled spells, although I could see theoretically how the warm, dry signal could lock in and repel any returns to cool, unsettled weather for more than a few days here and there.

No particular timing was suggested by the research, which shows a general trend to above normal temperatures from June to August and into parts of September, so more or less the entire summer season.

Since we have this situation of signals for above normal temperatures but a lingering trace of the long-wave trough, it might be expected that rainfall, even if it averages below normal, could include one or two heavy falls in brief episodes of severe storm activity. This would be more likely in the inland northern half of the country. Drought is also possible given the strength of the warm signal at the foundation of this forecast, and that would be most likely to develop in the southern third and possibly around Dublin.

Anyway, that's the outlook, I hope that the actual results are not too far removed from this warm, sunny and relatively dry prediction. Just to place some numbers for later verification, I will say that June, July and August will each average 1.2 degrees above long-term normals, rainfall will be 70 to 90 per cent of normal, and sunshine will be 10-30 per cent above normal values.

So you reckon it'll be warmer in the summer months, with a chance of some cooler periods?

vincentdunne

Well, today was warm and fine. So if we just copy and paste for the rest of the summer, then we are sorted. This is about as useful as the above generalised twaddle.

flutered

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I had promised to issue a long-range forecast for the summer of 2013 in mid-May and here are the results of my research combined with a rather subjective look at the implications of the recent trends in this very cool spring season.

In general, I believe there will be considerable improvement of the weather pattern ahead, and some chance of prolonged warm, dry spells. At the very least, I think this will be one of the better summer seasons in recent years, and there's some chance of it being an exceptional summer.

I have to respect the strength of the recent cold signal, which although not overly wet has maintained rainfalls at normal values which makes the season seem rather wet since the combination has led to reduced "evapo-transpiration." This signal may not just disappear on the first or even second instance of more settled weather under higher pressures. It may even try to dig in and fight back. So I want to temper the outlook by saying most likely a combination of warm, dry spells and cooler, unsettled spells, although I could see theoretically how the warm, dry signal could lock in and repel any returns to cool, unsettled weather for more than a few days here and there.

No particular timing was suggested by the research, which shows a general trend to above normal temperatures from June to August and into parts of September, so more or less the entire summer season.

Since we have this situation of signals for above normal temperatures but a lingering trace of the long-wave trough, it might be expected that rainfall, even if it averages below normal, could include one or two heavy falls in brief episodes of severe storm activity. This would be more likely in the inland northern half of the country. Drought is also possible given the strength of the warm signal at the foundation of this forecast, and that would be most likely to develop in the southern third and possibly around Dublin.

Anyway, that's the outlook, I hope that the actual results are not too far removed from this warm, sunny and relatively dry prediction. Just to place some numbers for later verification, I will say that June, July and August will each average 1.2 degrees above long-term normals, rainfall will be 70 to 90 per cent of normal, and sunshine will be 10-30 per cent above normal values.

actually i wont say what i was going to say, even tho i have a bottle of black bush inside me.

otto_26

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I had promised to issue a long-range forecast for the summer of 2013 in mid-May and here are the results of my research combined with a rather subjective look at the implications of the recent trends in this very cool spring season.

In general, I believe there will be considerable improvement of the weather pattern ahead, and some chance of prolonged warm, dry spells. At the very least, I think this will be one of the better summer seasons in recent years, and there's some chance of it being an exceptional summer.

I have to respect the strength of the recent cold signal, which although not overly wet has maintained rainfalls at normal values which makes the season seem rather wet since the combination has led to reduced "evapo-transpiration." This signal may not just disappear on the first or even second instance of more settled weather under higher pressures. It may even try to dig in and fight back. So I want to temper the outlook by saying most likely a combination of warm, dry spells and cooler, unsettled spells, although I could see theoretically how the warm, dry signal could lock in and repel any returns to cool, unsettled weather for more than a few days here and there.

No particular timing was suggested by the research, which shows a general trend to above normal temperatures from June to August and into parts of September, so more or less the entire summer season.

Since we have this situation of signals for above normal temperatures but a lingering trace of the long-wave trough, it might be expected that rainfall, even if it averages below normal, could include one or two heavy falls in brief episodes of severe storm activity. This would be more likely in the inland northern half of the country. Drought is also possible given the strength of the warm signal at the foundation of this forecast, and that would be most likely to develop in the southern third and possibly around Dublin.

Anyway, that's the outlook, I hope that the actual results are not too far removed from this warm, sunny and relatively dry prediction. Just to place some numbers for later verification, I will say that June, July and August will each average 1.2 degrees above long-term normals, rainfall will be 70 to 90 per cent of normal, and sunshine will be 10-30 per cent above normal values.

In summary what your saying is:

The summer might be hot or cold
And it might be wet or dry.

Daisy M

otto_26 wrote: »

In summary what your saying is:

The summer might be hot or cold
And it might be wet or dry.

I thought it was obvious from the forecast that a period of warm dry weather is foreseen this maybe interspersed by a few days of colder, wet weather.

emo72

is this the comedy forum? bunch of comedians in here. the positive thing from MTs forecast is that it looks greatly improved from previous summers. im happy with it.

Daisy M

emo72 wrote: »

is this the comedy forum? bunch of comedians in here. the positive thing from MTs forecast is that it looks greatly improved from previous summers. im happy with it.

Is this aimed at me? I wasn't been funny by any means, I was trying to clarify that I understood the forecast to be a mainly dry summer with a couple of days here and there that will be colder and wet. I responded to ottos post which I thought was unjustifiably critical.

emo72

Daisy M wrote: »

Is this aimed at me? I wasn't been funny by any means, I was trying to clarify that I understood the forecast to be a mainly dry summer with a couple of days here and there that will be colder and wet. I responded to ottos post which I thought was unjustifiably critical.

no, not at all aimed at you. to be fair some of the responses were funny if not a little sarky. but the the guy puts a lot of effort into giving us really accurate forecasts all year round and i have found him to be very accurate and i love the way he gives us explanations for why he is predicting certain outcomes.

and lets be a little bit happier that he is giving us a decent forecast for the summer:)

zidewayz

emo72 wrote: »

no, not at all aimed at you. to be fair some of the responses were funny if not a little sarky. but the the guy puts a lot of effort into giving us really accurate forecasts all year round and i have found him to be very accurate and i love the way he gives us explanations for why he is predicting certain outcomes.

and lets be a little bit happier that he is giving us a decent forecast for the summer:)

Here here..

Great summer forecast from MT which if it to go by his past forecasts offers us good hope for a good summer. Keep up the good work MT.

His summary at the end hits the spot. Above average temps.. below average rain.. Above average sunshine. If all these combine it makes all the difference for a lovely summer. Fingers crossed!

dsmythy

I know it can give off a cover all bases look but from what I gather from the forecast is it will be like a typical Irish summer but that the warm dry periods will last longer and be deeper compared to the past 7 years or so. Best way to describe it.

Lemon meringue

Yes I think it is a very straight forecast for a decent summer.
If the summer turns out to be generally cold and damp like the previous six then it will be proven in accurate.
In fairness to put your head out and predict a good summer in this country is a brave move.

M.T. Cranium

Yep, I think the more regular readers have it figured out, my intention was not to hedge my bets, I am predicting more frequent warmth, sunshine and dry spells than average, but that does not rule out some cooler unsettled spells of course, it would be a rare summer that avoided those entirely. We have a summer forecast contest thread if anyone wants to register their guess.

Jpmarn

The last 6 summers have been below par if not downright bad. There is quite a few predictions around that 2013 will buck the trend. Will it beat 1995? We'll see how it turns out. Fingers crossed.

giannip

Firstly I have no clue about meteorology but I'm forever hearing the TV presenters saying that their models break down after 10 days, so they can be sure what will happens thereafter.

Is this a different type of model you use or how can you predict the above ?

flutered

we are in for a perion of unsettled weather, unfortunatly.

pauldry

flutered wrote: »

we are in for a perion of unsettled weather, unfortunatly.

Yes it has lasted 6 years so far

I think July will be a great month weatherwise

strandsman

pauldry wrote: »

Yes it has lasted 6 years so far

I think July will be a great month weatherwise

it better be good in July, I going up west on holidays then!!!!:p

Calibos

Well at the very least, the Leaving Cert High pressure looks to link with the Junior Cert High over Scandi second week of June bringing decent temps and sunshine, so at least that annual weather event is right on schedule....

flutered

at least if may is not fine we get a chance of a good summer, every time we get a fine 7-10 days in may it snaffeles the fine summer weather.

M.T. Cranium

giannip wrote: »

Firstly I have no clue about meteorology but I'm forever hearing the TV presenters saying that their models break down after 10 days, so they can be sure what will happens thereafter.

Is this a different type of model you use or how can you predict the above ?

This is a statistical model rather than an operational or dynamic model and you would expect that its verification rates would be lower than operational models in their own better time frames (to be fair, 3-10 days). However, the research has been going fairly well and I am hopeful that this forecast will work out generally, keeping in mind that I am looking for trends not some sort of knockout blow where every day is a beach day and it never rains (and that would not be all that great for the country anyway, as much as it might sound ideal). We're already seeing some signs of this pattern trying to develop, the first half of June to my mind is not really as much summer as end of spring, and the first half of September belongs more to summer than autumn, but whatever, we'll be able to look back at some point and assess this forecast.

At some point if a statistical model began to produce reliable results then it could be turned into the extension of the existing technology for what I would call medium-range forecasting (but is often called long-range forecasting, that is the 3-10 day interval). The GFS proves on a fairly regular basis that the dynamic approach to 11-16 days is nowhere near the standard expected for medium-range, so my approach already has some chance of being useful as an extension of what currently exists.

otto_26

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I am predicting more frequent warmth, sunshine and dry spells than average, but that does not rule out some cooler unsettled spells of course.

So in summary the above says:

We are going to get a warm summer with dry spells
BUT could get a cold and wet summer also!!!!

How does one get a job in your line of work? think I would be good at it!!!

kingshankly

otto_26 wrote: »

So in summary the above says:

We are going to get a warm summer with dry spells
BUT could get a cold and wet summer also!!!!

How does one get a job in your line of work? think I would be good at it!!!

Well there's a forecasting thread you can try your hand in there and we will see if your good at it or not

Quickelles

otto_26 wrote: »

So in summary the above says:

We are going to get a warm summer with dry spells
BUT could get a cold and wet summer also!!!!

How does one get a job in your line of work? think I would be good at it!!!

Otto - I'd say astrology is more your line than meteorology based on that effort :cool:

M.T. Cranium

"Some hope for improvement" has got to be the understatement of the year on this forum at any rate.

I'm just reviewing the actual numbers and finding that the general trends are similar to predictions (from 1 June to mid-July, looks like temps are about +1.5, rainfall about 70% and sunshine about 130%).

The actual time distribution has been two notable warm, dry spells (1-10 June and about 4-15 July so far). In between the weather was somewhat on the dull side of normal and rainfall edged up to about normal with temperatures in that middle portion around -0.5 anomalies. The anomalies in the two warm spells are both around 2 to 3 above normal overall, and that includes some coastal stations that are not as warm as inland.

Comments about drought and a potentially exceptional summer seem on track, time will tell how this summer will compare to 1995 for example, 2006 might not be the best example as the exceptional June and July were followed by a more average sort of August.

As to what I now think about the long-range forecast, will hold in general to the theme of generally warm and dry, a few more interruptions possible, with a trend over the next 45-60 days to more normal rainfall amounts towards the end of the period in particular.

Then, as published elsewhere, my autumn forecast calls for September to become increasingly zonal (westerly flow dominant) and showery with some gusty winds at times and more normal temperatures especially towards the end of the month. A colder spell is indicated by my research from very late September towards about the tenth of October, possibly a northerly interlude there, and then an "Indian summer" pattern for a few weeks in later October and early November.

Won't comment on the winter yet as I have some research files to reboot to generate the necessary output (some of them are reaching ends of long columns in excel files and I have to check everything for Dec 2013 to Feb 2014 to make sure all the factors are staying with the program -- this I will leave until September since I am also planning to test out one or two new factors).

Anyway, this thread kind of died out back in May evidently, possibly because there was a certain amount of contamination from trolls who decided to over-emphasize (in my opinion) the variety of weather being suggested in the original forecast. I feel that the call was valid and that the events in June more or less played out as suggested, the older cool/wet regime giving way with some resistance to this massive warm/dry signal. And I have to note in passing that most of the contrarians were not regular weather forum posters which makes me question motivation and origins to some extent. You can perhaps understand my frustration in context, but as to the regulars on the weather forum, I have nothing but the highest regard for this forum and its regular participants and you've added more to my situation than you can ever realize, so if I can give a bit back, that's satisfying.

farmchoice

Hi,
I am not a regular poster in this forum but I am a regular reader and check out your forecasts most days. I would just like to say that you are an invaluable asset to boards.ie and that you contribute in a large way to the weather forum being one of the most intelligent and considered forums on boards.
Those who don’t understand anything about weather forecasting tend to show up when we have any kind of unusual weather pattern and like to post nonsense, as you know the secret is to ignore them completely.

Thanks for everything and for all our sakes keep at it.

Cosmo Kramer

MT - your forecast looks bang on so far this summer...and its not the first time you've called things right well in advance. Great stuff again.

shmaupel

MT, I look forward to your forecasts every morning, living on a coastal farm I have to say your input is a huge asset to me, cheers!

M.T. Cranium

I have to stress, the research is nowhere near finished and it's a bit of a race against time now given that this old dude is 64 years young, fortunately in good health and able to spend as much time on this as possible with the exception of a few issues that will occupy my time in September. I am going to be involved in a very complicated freedom of speech vs political correctness type trial in Ottawa which is as far from me as it is from you folks, which may cut into my ability to do much on the internet or my research files (most of which are not accessible off-site here at home). On the other hand, the stay in Ottawa will allow me to take side trips back to places where I used to live (and golf, more to the point) and all of that in the start of the fall colour season, so that's a plus for me.

After they exile me from Canada come October, I may be begging for Irish asylum, sure they are full of weather forecasters already. (the asylums)

And that's yer joke of the day from MTC.

vicwatson

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I have to stress, the research is nowhere near finished and it's a bit of a race against time now given that this old dude is 64 years young, fortunately in good health and able to spend as much time on this as possible with the exception of a few issues that will occupy my time in September. I am going to be involved in a very complicated freedom of speech vs political correctness type trial in Ottawa which is as far from me as it is from you folks, which may cut into my ability to do much on the internet or my research files (most of which are not accessible off-site here at home). On the other hand, the stay in Ottawa will allow me to take side trips back to places where I used to live (and golf, more to the point) and all of that in the start of the fall colour season, so that's a plus for me.

After they exile me from Canada come October, I may be begging for Irish asylum, sure they are full of weather forecasters already. (the asylums)

And that's yer joke of the day from MTC.

Goes without saying you'd be more than welcome here anytime, and we have great golf courses to boot !! (And fantastic weather, but you knew that;) )

M.T. Cranium

If we go anywhere in 2014, it will be Ireland. We've been kept close to home base for this summer by family health issues (my wife's dad was in failing health during the spring and passed away in June). That postponed the Ireland trip idea which was in our minds back in the winter months. As some of you know, I do photo editing on a rather large scale on the IWO facebook site, and this has only heightened our desire to visit soon. And yes, I would definitely want to play a round or two, my concern would be that my game is not what it was five years ago due to neglect and even that was nothing too special, so I might want to do my golfing some place out of view.

Anyway, I do hope to see all these wonderful places that I learn about through the photos and chat (and the few that I remember from my one visit long ago).

vicwatson

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If we go anywhere in 2014, it will be Ireland. We've been kept close to home base for this summer by family health issues (my wife's dad was in failing health during the spring and passed away in June). That postponed the Ireland trip idea which was in our minds back in the winter months. As some of you know, I do photo editing on a rather large scale on the IWO facebook site, and this has only heightened our desire to visit soon. And yes, I would definitely want to play a round or two, my concern would be that my game is not what it was five years ago due to neglect and even that was nothing too special, so I might want to do my golfing some place out of view.

Anyway, I do hope to see all these wonderful places that I learn about through the photos and chat (and the few that I remember from my one visit long ago).

Plenty of courses for all levels so don't worry about that !! You'll have tonnes of offers for golfing partners too;)

M.T. Cranium

Might be fun then to organize a boards/weather golf event, maybe a fun scramble format with the meal afterwards open to non-golfers so we can all socialize and complain about the weather. I like playing scramble events here, and I probably do better in them than on my own scores. Also if I knew I was playing scramble golf and not the regular kind, I would be less likely to bother lugging my clubs along, just rent or borrow some instead.

Somewhere that would minimize the travel distance for anyone interested, and not too technically difficult (or expensive) would be preferable.

This is something I can't do from here but if somebody there wanted to take it on, I could pretty much say mid to late August would be our most likely time to visit. That's probably the busiest time almost for much of the holiday trade I suppose.

This should probably be in the other thread I suppose, maybe we should move the discussion there or just PM, wonder how many boards/weather/golf people there would be. I know about four or five at a minimum.