Will Nokia ever break the MS deal?

PrzemoF

"HELSINKI (Reuters) - Nokia investors told Chief Executive Stephen Elop on Tuesday that they were running out of patience with his flagging attempts to catch up with market leaders Apple and Samsung in smartphones. Many shareholders at the annual general meeting in Helsinki said Elop should reconsider his 2011 decision to switch to the phone operating software made by his former employer Microsoft, which has left the company scrambling to get back in the race from a standing start with its new Lumia range of smartphones.
"You're a nice guy ... and the leadership team is doing its best, but clearly, it's not enough," one shareholder, Hannu Virtanen, told Elop. "Are you aware that results are what matter? The road to hell is paved with good intentions. Please switch to another road," he said."


http://news.yahoo.com/nokia-investors-tell-ceo-patience-running-thin-150127531.html

I'm waiting for the day when the best ever mobile hardware maker (my personal opinion) will finally say good bye to Elop & MS deal. Nokia had meego, they could work with ubuntu, they could support firefoxOS - any system that has a chance to compete with android.

PaulieC

so instead of continuing growth with a well-supported OS that is making inroads into the markets, they should go with either one of two unreleased OSes or a barely released one ?

Yes, that certainly makes sense and would definitely appease shareholders.

Francie Barrett

I wouldn't hold my breath.

While Elop is at Nokia, they most definitely will not be reversing course. Even if a new CEO took over (which doesn't look likely as the Nokia board are still behind Elop) then I doubt that Nokia could afford to drop Microsoft. Remember, when they signed the 5 year deal back in 2011, in return for committing to Windows Phone, they were promised platform support payments. I imagine that if Nokia decided to renege on their contract with Microsoft, that Microsoft would be able to demand that money back and charge all sorts of penalties. Nokia's position is so perilous, that I doubt they could afford to pay that money back and endure another year of losses while they prepared an Android device.

I reckon that Nokia will be broken up. The networks division will be spun off, Microsoft will purchase the smart phone and mapping division with the feature phone part remaining as a standalone entity retaining the Nokia name.

Kichote

They have all their eggs in the one basket and that basket is full of holes (as with all Microsoft products)

They should definitely try making Ubuntu phones, firefox OS, meego or whatever is left of that. Start off low end, put out a few feelers to see if it sells and if it does make a better one. The contracts probably wouldnt allow that though


Bad things happen to companies that sign deals with MS

I'd think they have a better chance with Windows Phone than Firefox, Ubuntu or Meego. Windows Phone might still be relatively obscure but the other mentioned systems are even more obscure, in fact they're untried. Massive gamble.

ted1

Having seem windows phones they are pretty tempting.

_Kaiser_

ted1 wrote: »

Having seem windows phones they are pretty tempting.

Windows phones are grand as long as you don't expect too much.

As long as you're happy with what you get and don't want to change anything beyond the colour of the theme and can live without a lot of apps then it's fine.

We use them here in the office and I'm on my 4th one - LG 900 > Lumia 800 > Samsung Ativ S > Lumia 920 - and as work phones they're grand, but I wouldn't give up my Note 2

ted1

Theres a fine line between a tablet and Note 2.

The note 2 is to big of a phone

senordingdong

Kichote wrote: »

Start off low end, put out a few feelers to see if it sells and if it does make a better one. The contracts probably wouldnt allow that though

Is that not sort of what they have been doing with W8/Lumia?

They appear to making inroads as of late and changing now would be a disaster.

PaulieC

Kichote wrote: »

They have all their eggs in the one basket and that basket is full of holes (as with all Microsoft products)
...
Bad things happen to companies that sign deals with MS

Chip on your shoulder much ?

Francie Barrett

Ubuntu and FirefoxOS definitely aren't the answer. The likes of Apple and Blackberry retain the rights to their own OS. Meego could have been the answer, but Nokia sacked the team who worked on that so that's a no-go.

Realistically, that only leaves one OS remaining - Android.

Everything depends on what Microsoft does. Nokia can't leave WP voluntarily, however Microsoft themselves may decide to abandon the platform. After all, it's been 2 years since WP was released, yet global market share has remained miserable (2-3%) and that's despite all the money Microsoft have thrown at Nokia, marketing and paying existing Apple/Android developers to port applications across. If it wasn't for Nokia themselves, I reckon Microsoft would have given up on WP already.

Considering that Microsoft probably make more money through the sales of Android devices (through patents, it's estimated they might make $10 for each device sold) - it could simply make sense for Microsoft to adopt Android. If Microsoft were really audacious, they could try an old tactic of theirs. Embrace, extend, and extinguish. Android is open-source and many companies have already forked Android (Amazon most famously for the Kindle Fire). There's nothing stopping Microsoft from doing the same with Android (like they did with Java before) and simply putting their own layer over Android and creating their own app eco-system.

senordingdong

Whatsmore, it looks like there are truck loads of new lumia products heading our way soon, covering all ranges from affordable to outright over the top.

It looks like even the Asha models will be carried over to become affordable Lumias.

kaizersoze

Nokia's biggest problem I reckon is they're too slow getting sought after products to market. The Lumia 920 is a prime example. Launched in September '12 but nowhere to be seen in any great numbers till February '13 at least. Missed the important xmas market completely.

People got fed up waiting and were lost to Apple/Samsung.

Francie Barrett

kaizersoze wrote: »

Nokia's biggest problem I reckon is they're too slow getting sought after products to market. The Lumia 920 is a prime example. Launched in September '12 but nowhere to be seen in any great numbers till February '13 at least. Missed the important xmas market completely.

People got fed up waiting and were lost to Apple/Samsung.

No. Their biggest problem is Windows Phone, it's clearly holding back sales. Android will ship 900 million devices this year. If Windows Phone is lucky, it might break 40 million devices (assuming Nokia do 25-30 million with others making up the rest). It's clear that while everyone loves the Nokia hardware, the uptake for the OS is very weak.

PaulieC

Francie Barrett wrote: »

No. Their biggest problem is Windows Phone, it's clearly holding back sales. Android will ship 900 million devices this year. If Windows Phone is lucky, it might break 40 million devices (assuming Nokia do 25-30 million with others making up the rest). It's clear that while everyone loves the Nokia hardware, the uptake for the OS is very weak.

coz they were doing so well before, right ?

ED E

PaulieC wrote: »

coz they were doing so well before, right ?

Back in the day yes, they really were. They failed to transition to smartphones quickly and well. The new handsets are lovely but nobody wants windows phone. Few corporate deployments but staff all want iphones or GS4s. The purview 808 was really cool but I didn't even consider it as it wasn't droid.

I really hope it dies before nokia does, it'd shame to see their quality hardware disappear

senordingdong

I think the w8 phone system has huge potential and do not think nokias problem lies with the system. Look at apple...for all intents and purposes, their system is terrible but they dominate the market. Samsung also beat nokia on sales but my experience with samsung is hardware problems, too fragile etc... It's all about marketing and how the product is marketed. Lumia sales HAVE increased as of late, following a huge marketing drive.

PrzemoF

senordingdong wrote: »

[..] Look at apple...for all intents and purposes, their system is terrible but they dominate the market.[..]

Say what?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_Wide_Smartphone_Sales.png

PaulieC

ED E wrote: »

The new handsets are lovely but nobody wants windows phone....but staff all want iphones or GS4s

Ah yes, the old 'personal opinion presented as fact' argument. I want a windows phone and that's why I have one. I really would not lie a Galaxy as, in my opinion, they are cheap and plasticy feeling, hardware-wise and the software is not really intuitive and there are too many gimmicks there also (waving had to scroll to next page anyone ?). Again, that is my opinion, but on two separate occasions last weekend people have said to me that they really, really hate their Galaxy SIII handsets. One of them, in the space of an hour and a half in the pub on Friday, had to remove his battery three times as his phone had froze up. Hardly ideal ?
Apple make nice hardware, but iOS is really jaded at this stage, IN MY OPINION.

I've heard people opine that Nokia with Android would be "killer". Well my answer to that is that Sony also make really nice high-end phones, but they are wallowing at the moment with Android. Samsung are the only Android manufacturer that are making any decent return these days and a lot of that is just down to sheer marketing dollars. But there'll come a point, in the not too distant future, when this won't be the case. Look at HTC for example. Everything is cyclical, always is, and Samsung will decline at some time. Especially now that since iOS is hardly innovating, they have nothing to copy off (interesting though that a lot of their new 'features' on the GS4 have already appeared in the Nokia 920).
Also, Samsung are acutely aware of the dangers of allowing Android (and Google) become too powerful in the space and are developing their own OS.

wheresmybeaver

Nokia had the opportunity back in 2011 to either go android, go windows, or stay on Symbian. They decided that the android market was too crowded with the likes of Samsung, HTC, LG, Asus, etc and there was a fairly major issue with platform fragmentation (which is much improved in fairness). How could you differentiate yourself in this crowded market. they decided to go windows phone in order to create something with a different impression, and I think they've been pretty successful with that. They have also had the possibility to influence the windows ecosystem in ways not possible with android (mapping platform for example). Of course it takes time to build out a new platform alongside the two massive incumbents, but they're not looking too shabby right now! They just seem to still be having issues winning over the carriers and sales staff themselves. Any time I've asked about a windows phone in a shop I've been immediately steered over to some crappy low-to-middle range handset - the types of handsets that have incredibly low customer satisfaction scores, especially compared to the equivalent grade of handset in the Nokia Lumia range. Perplexing. But there can be no doubt that Microsoft are in this for the long haul (see XBOX) - so I think Nokia have made a good choice in the long run. Admittedly a difficult situation in the short term however..

senordingdong

PrzemoF wrote: »

Say what?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_Wide_Smartphone_Sales.png

Yeah Android may well be higher up now but Apple had a significant head start and masses of people who bought iPhones back then, may well still be using them.

pleasant Co.

senordingdong wrote: »

Yeah Android may well be higher up now but Apple had a significant head start and masses of people who bought iPhones back then, may well still be using them.

Hmmm, it doesn't work like that, current global smartphone OS usage takes all versions of android, ios, wp, BB in use into consideration. Android is ahead by quite a margin, there isn't some mass of ignored devices that people bought "back then".

PrzemoF

senordingdong wrote: »

Yeah Android may well be higher up now but Apple had a significant head start and masses of people who bought iPhones back then, may well still be using them.

Android devices have 70-80% of the "smart" devices market. Apple had a head start, but they never had cheap phones. They have about 15-20% of the market now.

The numbers are different in different sources.

Could we make a poll:
I'd like Nokia to:
1. Stick to Windows Phone
2. Go back to MeeGo
3. Support Ubuntu Phone
4. Switch to Tizen
5. Fork Android

PaulieC

PrzemoF wrote: »

Android devices have 70-80% of the "smart" devices market. Apple had a head start, but they never had cheap phones. They have about 15-20% of the market now.

The numbers are different in different sources.

Could we make a poll:
I'd like Nokia to:
1. Stick to Windows Phone
2. Go back to MeeGo
3. Support Ubuntu Phone
4. Switch to Tizen
5. Fork Android

The point being ?

PrzemoF

PaulieC wrote: »

The point being ?

The point of the poll is to prove that Nokia made a mistake killing meego and signing MS deal. I'm sure there are quite a few Nokia ex-fans who are waiting for a change. The poll could give the answer if I'm right or wrong.

pleasant Co.

PrzemoF wrote: »

The point of the poll is to prove that Nokia made a mistake killing meego and signing MS deal. I'm sure there are quite a few Nokia ex-fans who are waiting for a change. The poll could give the answer if I'm right or wrong.

ok, but what's the point?
If i'm reading your post right it's that you want your own opinion validated by others? your wording leaves little else to be concluded.

BostonB

I think the Android market share is skewed due to the mass of very low end android devices, which give a very poor experience IMO. Fragmentation is still an issue, but less than it was as 2.3.6 isn't that different to ICS or JB for most functionality. Whereas there was a bigger gulf between 2.1 and 2.2 (SD card I'm thinking). The other issue with fragmentation is the individual operator firmware updates, which often never happen. O2 for example are bad, dropping support for all but the newest phones while still selling a ton of old models with old software.

But Android is everywhere from the low end to the top end of the market. Most of the other Smart OS's are mainly in the top end.

While Nokia could have kept MeeGo, they would have struggled getting enough apps developed by 3rd parties. With MS and Windows Phone they have a much bigger potential App market to take advantage of. I think the Nokia/MS partnership has saved Nokia. Who knows if they've repeated the OVI store disaster with the MeeGo store? I think we'll see a lot more Windows Phone in the low end with the Lumia 520/620. They are much better products than the 610, 710 they had previously.

This is battle you'd have to give another 6 months before calling it. Personally I'm delighted to seem choice come back into Phones, and some quality to the low end of the market.

PrzemoF

pleasant Co. wrote: »

ok, but what's the point?
If i'm reading your post right it's that you want your own opinion validated by others? your wording leaves little else to be concluded.

OK, I think I missed the point of your first question
There would be no real world implications of the poll, so for that point of view it's pointless
And yes, I wanted my opinion to be confirmed by the poll.


P.S. I'm afraid that the thread is going in a strange direction...

PaulieC

PrzemoF wrote: »

P.S. I'm afraid that the thread is going in a strange direction...

as soon as you asked for a poll

Francie Barrett

BostonB wrote: »

Fragmentation is still an issue, but less than it was as 2.3.6 isn't that different to ICS or JB for most functionality.

1/3 of Nokia devices sold in the previous quarter were Windows Phone 7. Having said that, fragmentation is made out to be a bigger issue than what it really is and I don't think it's a problem for Windows Phone or Android.

Francie Barrett

BostonB wrote: »

While Nokia could have kept MeeGo, they would have struggled getting enough apps developed by 3rd parties.

Not true. If anything, it's Windows Phone that is struggling to get apps developed by third parties. It's well documented that they have had to pay to have the top Android/iOS apps ported. FourSquare for example said that they would never have been bothered porting their app to Windows Phone but for the fact that Microsoft paid for it.

As for Meego, before Elop took an axe to everything in Nokia, all the Nokia operating systems used a common development platform, i.e. Qt. That meant that if you developed an app for Maemo, Symbian or Meego - your app would work natively across platforms with minimal changes. When Elop started killing off development efforts inside Nokia, most of the expertise either continued with Qt (through Blackberry or Jolla) or just went to Android. Try taking a look in the Nokia Developer forums, they are practically dead compared to the days when Meego and Symbian were still supported. The vibrant Nokia developer community is dying and it looks a very bleak place now since Windows Phone became numero uno.

I think Meego will still have the last laugh in all this. Keep an eye on Jolla. Unlike Microsoft and Nokia (and Blackberry to a lesser extent) - they have no money whatsoever to promote Sailfish (their variant on Meego). What they lack in resources, they make up for in having a fantastic and dedicated community. While I don't think Jolla will ever become a major player (they simply don't have the resources), I think we're going to see them become a surprise success and I think they will haunt Stephen Elop.