Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Zr105

It seems the nz prices have taken a major blow, is it a warning to the rest of the world that a drop in price could be in the line of sight?

http://mobile.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.php?c_id=3&objectid=11334946

rangler1

Zr105 wrote: »

It seems the nz prices have taken a major blow, is it a warning to the rest of the world that a drop in price could be in the line of sight?

http://mobile.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.php?c_id=3&objectid=11334946

apparently the price in Latvia is 17c/l

Milked out

Dawggone wrote: »

Including wages and finance its 42cpl.
Without wages its 28cpl.
I must re calculate these figures as the price of feed has dropped significantly.
I'm farming as a company. Land and buildings are in a holding company and rented to the dairy company. All feed etc likewise.
SFP not included.

How often a year do u calve dawg? If u calve all year round Would cutting back to two calving seasons allow u to reduce labour costs as less time spent with young calves and calving?

Dawggone

Milked out wrote: »

How often a year do u calve dawg? If u calve all year round Would cutting back to two calving seasons allow u to reduce labour costs as less time spent with young calves and calving?

Calving ayr, but trying to bring it to two blocks just for the ease of it.
Won't be cutting back on labour. All hands needed.
Rearing calves is no work with the autofeeder. It's all the different age weanling that's a pain.

whelan2

any word on september price?

frazzledhome

Not yet but 2c drop muted

stretch film

frazzledhome wrote: »

Not yet but 2c drop muted

Still money left in the rob peter to pay paul fund ( whether it will cover the full 2 cent who knows).

Sub 30 before yr is out was quoted to me recently

darragh_haven

stretch film wrote: »

Still money left in the rob peter to pay paul fund ( whether it will cover the full 2 cent who knows).

Sub 30 before yr is out was quoted to me recently

I think most people are expecting 30 or sub 30 by year end. What happens after that os the concern

frazzledhome

stretch film wrote: »

Still money left in the rob peter to pay paul fund ( whether it will cover the full 2 cent who knows).

Sub 30 before yr is out was quoted to me recently

Can't see that find being touched till March, well I hope not as half used. Pity we didn't manage to get more into fund.

freedominacup

frazzledhome wrote: »

Can't see that find being touched till March, well I hope not as half used. Pity we didn't manage to get more into fund.

What triggers money being put into this fund?

stretch film

frazzledhome wrote: »

Can't see that find being touched till March, well I hope not as half used. Pity we didn't manage to get more into fund.

Does it not have to be used up by year end?
Its based on 2013 production so even lads dried off are entitled to it (back) .
What differ now or later .
Its a cynical accounting excrcise anyway . Leading the price drop as usual.

frazzledhome

stretch film wrote: »

Does it not have to be used up by year end?
Its based on 2013 production so even lads dried off are entitled to it (back) .
What differ now or later .
Its a cynical accounting excrcise anyway . Leading the price drop as usual.

With your fixed position there's no point explaining further.

stretch film

frazzledhome wrote: »

With your fixed position there's no point explaining further.

Ahh hear. Explain away.

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

Not yet but 2c drop muted

What is base price from Glanbia ? Not inc vat.

Had a little (pre) meeting with Coop today and they are bullish enough for next spring.....

mahoney_j

Dawggone wrote: »

What is base price from Glanbia ? Not inc vat.

Had a little (pre) meeting with Coop today and they are bullish enough for next spring.....

Finally a bit of positivity,what's he basing it on dwag

Dawggone

mahoney_j wrote: »

Finally a bit of positivity,what's he basing it on dwag

China, funny enough.
He reckons that the Chinese have a stockpile that needs to be washed out and that price should harden by Q2 next year. I'm not saying that he's Warren Buffet but they have very close links with China after some heavy Chinese investment here.

My Coop seem to be quite bullish about price, but then again they would be when they are 17.4% under quota ....

mahoney_j

Dawggone wrote: »

China, funny enough.
He reckons that the Chinese have a stockpile that needs to be washed out and that price should harden by Q2 next year. I'm not saying that he's Warren Buffet but they have very close links with China after some heavy Chinese investment here.

My Coop seem to be quite bullish about price, but then again they would be when they are 17.4% under quota ....

I was talking to 1 guy in particular recently and he is of the same opinion as your guy about China.he reckons by mid summer next year we should be seeing good signs of market recovery.

mf240

freedominacup wrote: »

What triggers money being put into this fund?

Suppliers leaving for the north seemed to trigger it. The magically found the price of bellview down the back of a couch at the same time.

Its five millinion, the 2 cent in aug will have made a fair hole in it.

mf240

frazzledhome wrote: »

With your fixed position there's no point explaining further.

Explain it to the rest of the class?

kowtow

Dawggone wrote: »

China, funny enough.
He reckons that the Chinese have a stockpile that needs to be washed out and that price should harden by Q2 next year.

Have heard a similar view from further afield, I don't think China will stand back much longer than the middle of next year.

Whether that is enough to put a floor in the price? Hopefully.

I gather there is a fair amount being diverted to powder outside Ireland.

Greengrass1

And russia. The people there will only go with basics forvso long before they get fed up.
I would have thought china would start buying soon again. Was last winter they boughy all the stock

mahoney_j

Greengrass1 wrote: »

And russia. The people there will only go with basics forvso long before they get fed up.
I would have thought china would start buying soon again. Was last winter they boughy all the stock

The thing about Russia or more importantly Putin is he is dosnt give 2 hoots about his own people,ruthless fooker.

Greengrass1

mahoney_j wrote: »

The thing about Russia or more importantly Putin is he is dosnt give 2 hoots about his own people,ruthless fooker.

Id ask sister about what she makes of the milk situation and russia only I dont want another hour long debate on it

freedominacup

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Id ask sister about what she makes of the milk situation and russia only I dont want another hour long debate on it

I have one of them as well.

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

What is base price from Glanbia ? Not inc vat.

Had a little (pre) meeting with Coop today and they are bullish enough for next spring.....

31.43 ex vat was Aug price at 3.6 and 3.3

Does your coop do individual deals with suppliers?

frazzledhome

My view is that we're in for a rough ride till May/June. Any one in Cat 1 > 70k litres and over quota are being deducted as of now. <70k are being allowed 25k extra before deduction. I'd say that SL is a bigger worry in these situations. A fine and low price in Spring will do a lot of harm. Be careful and do your budgets. That said I find the figures country wide hard to accept, showing country so far over, a bit of wolf crying, perhaps with an end goal in sight?

This has to be the perfect 18 mts of milk production world wife. There's usually some weather event in some corner that's holding back milk supply, not do at the moment. The only area where milk price is holding is the US and this coupled with low grain price will only drive production. All of Northern EU and NZ/Aus have had a perfect milk season.

There's a view that China over imported and may be in fact exporting stockpiled product. This view could have credence as Russia's alliances seem to be leaning that way.

The growth figure of 2% in demand still stands and Chinas shifting of product will bring balance, when nobody can say. The drop in price about to hit US will also have a huge effect. They came back into production a lot slower than expected as they probably over culled when grain was high.

I'd say never take any high or low price as your benchmark rather take a three year average as your price and budget based on that.

Then again I could be as wrong as phuck

mahoney_j

frazzledhome wrote: »

My view is that we're in for a rough ride till May/June. Any one in Cat 1 > 70k litres and over quota are being deducted as of now. <70k are being allowed 25k extra before deduction. I'd say that SL is a bigger worry in these situations. A fine and low price in Spring will do a lot of harm. Be careful and do your budgets. That said I find the figures country wide hard to accept, showing country so far over, a bit of wolf crying, perhaps with an end goal in sight?

This has to be the perfect 18 mts of milk production world wife. There's usually some weather event in some corner that's holding back milk supply, not do at the moment. The only area where milk price is holding is the US and this coupled with low grain price will only drive production. All of Northern EU and NZ/Aus have had a perfect milk season.

There's a view that China over imported and may be in fact exporting stockpiled product. This view could have credence as Russia's alliances seem to be leaning that way.

The growth figure of 2% in demand still stands and Chinas shifting of product will bring balance, when nobody can say. The drop in price about to hit US will also have a huge effect. They came back into production a lot slower than expected as they probably over culled when grain was high.

I'd say never take any high or low price as your benchmark rather take a three year average as your price and budget based on that.

Then again I could be as wrong as phuck

Excelent post ,As regards irelands levy position,Id say quoted figures arent far off the mark.As you said were after having a near perfect 18 months for grass based milk production which suits us as well as very high prices.From talking to lads locally and milk manager in coop a lot seem to be living in some hope that there will be some divine intervention from somewhere to reduce levy.It was well worth a punt last year but not in any way this year with decreasing prices and a massive surge in production month on month since april.a sub 30 milk price next spring on top of levy will make for a very depressing bunch of dairy farmers.I know weve known quotas were going on 31 march 2015 for a long time but how in the hell nothing was ever done to soften the blow this year is beyond me.we are expected to calve cows and keep one foot on the brake next spring untill 23.59 on 31 march and 2 minutes later just let it off,crazy ****e.I do have a sneaky feeling though that something will happen on the butterfat co efficent but nothing will be announced till april 15

frazzledhome

mahoney_j wrote: »

Excelent post ,As regards irelands levy position,Id say quoted figures arent far off the mark.As you said were after having a near perfect 18 months for grass based milk production which suits us as well as very high prices.From talking to lads locally and milk manager in coop a lot seem to be living in some hope that there will be some divine intervention from somewhere to reduce levy.It was well worth a punt last year but not in any way this year with decreasing prices and a massive surge in production month on month since april.a sub 30 milk price next spring on top of levy will make for a very depressing bunch of dairy farmers.I know weve known quotas were going on 31 march 2015 for a long time but how in the hell nothing was ever done to soften the blow this year is beyond me.we are expected to calve cows and keep one foot on the brake next spring untill 23.59 on 31 march and 2 minutes later just let it off,crazy ****e.I do have a sneaky feeling though that something will happen on the butterfat co efficent but nothing will be announced till april 15

If any things going to be done it'll be a processors level locally. No matter what's done the fine WILL be paid and the farmer will foot bill. I may be put out over a period but I'd be making no decisions based on that hope.

I'm not too sure if a soft landing could've been achieved at any stage but in any event the arrogance of our previous government put paid to any friendships we may have had in Europe. Blowing about being the most wealthy in Europe and ministers displaying arrogance befitting Russian Oligarchs all the borrowing like the Argentinian government from the French and Germans. They sat back laughed and flung the money knowing that it would end in tears

So I'd say soft landing out of the question

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

31.43 ex vat was Aug price at 3.6 and 3.3

Does your coop do individual deals with suppliers?

Got 42.4cpl in August here but was a rob Peter to pay Paul exercise. They give a bonus of 2cpl for August as the farmers like to take that month off.

Individual deals - good question.
I'm talking to a couple of Coop's ATM as I'm taking on another few acres 80 miles away and there is a dairy yard on it that has been unproductive for three years.
Things are being hinted...but it's early stages yet. Straight answer is I don't know.

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

Got 42.4cpl in August here but was a rob Peter to pay Paul exercise. They give a bonus of 2cpl for August as the farmers like to take that month off.

Individual deals - good question.
I'm talking to a couple of Coop's ATM as I'm taking on another few acres 80 miles away and there is a dairy yard on it that has been unproductive for three years.
Things are being hinted...but it's early stages yet. Straight answer is I don't know.

42.4 base price? A full 10c more than us