Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Dawggone

mf240 wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=89706698

And there I was chalking you down as a dairy jihadist. Apologies.

Now predict the next five years milk price?:)

mf240

Dawggone wrote: »

And there I was chalking you down as a dairy jihadist. Apologies.

Now predict the next five years milk price?:)

Haven't a clue tbh. the lad in Nigeria might stir up a bit of demand.

patsy_mccabe

This from over a year back;

" Got a letter from Dairygold asking me to forecast my milk supply for the next three years and the same people can only call the price of milk two weeks in arrears. Jaysus if they could only indicate the price for this year I could have a fair crack at it."

kevthegaff

I'm going against the grain, well see prices in the mid thirties again by 2022!

kowtow

kevthegaff wrote:

I'm going against the grain, well see prices in the mid thirties again by 2022!

When that happy moment comes I'll cheerfully buy you a pint.

Which will probably cost 12.50.

tanko

Dawggone wrote: »

And there I was chalking you down as a dairy jihadist. Apologies.

Now predict the next five years milk price?:)

What do you think it'll be?

kowtow

tanko wrote:

What do you think it'll be?

There's a fairly big retracement in oil over recent weeks.

A lot will depend on whether that rally fizzles out and turns back downwards, on phone at the moment so haven't any prices handy to see what the key levels are.

As far as milk is concerned in the near term surely the problem is that Irish prices haven't yet got to the gdt levels?

keep going

kevthegaff wrote: »

I'm going against the grain, well see prices in the mid thirties again by 2022!

It ll happen long before that, id say summer 2019

Water John

I really hope you are right, keep going.
Not so sure my bank manager would take your or my word for it.

Bass Reeves

Best thing to cure low prices is low prices.

After the Us election oil prices will creep up again. Milk will follow 30c/L late 2017 will continue to head north until late 2018/early 2019 then starts to drop. 3-4 year cycle hitting 40c/L and down to 20c/L.

Timmaay

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Best thing to cure low prices is low prices.

After the Us election oil prices will creep up again. Milk will follow 30c/L late 2017 will continue to head north until late 2018/early 2019 then starts to drop. 3-4 year cycle hitting 40c/L and down to 20c/L.

Mid/long term the Base price anything over 30c, and less of these weather extremes would keep me very comfortable, once I remain lowly borrowed. However short term I cannot see any flicker of hope 2bh, if NZ does dump a load of milk on the gdt next 2months at the end of their season it won't be good at all, alongside that no sign of the end of low grain prices in the US, especially not if lads have locked into 2/3year feed contracts while the grain price on the floor. I've well battened down the hatches and preparing to have to flog on 20 of the worst performing cows later in the year, also praying to God we don't get any serious drought this summer that's could quickly see 1000e/week meal bills if we had to feed the likes of 10kg/head.

Bass Reeves

Timmaay wrote: »

Mid/long term the Base price anything over 30c, and less of these weather extremes would keep me very comfortable, once I remain lowly borrowed. However short term I cannot see any flicker of hope 2bh, if NZ does dump a load of milk on the gdt next 2months at the end of their season it won't be good at all, alongside that no sign of the end of low grain prices in the US, especially not if lads have locked into 2/3year feed contracts while the grain price on the floor. I've well battened down the hatches and preparing to have to flog on 20 of the worst performing cows later in the year, also praying to God we don't get any serious drought this summer that's could quickly see 1000e/week meal bills if we had to feed the likes of 10kg/head.

If grain prices remain as is fellas will start to leave land fallow. I saw posted on another thread that loads of maize set on tillage land because of late spring. Talk about being stupid plenty of cheap forage at the end of the year for Larry to fill the sheds with all those 2015 born cattle.

As well look at DD at the moment loads of adds for HE and AA suck calves. It a case of suck em and see for next 6-8 months.

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

There's a fairly big retracement in oil over recent weeks.

A lot will depend on whether that rally fizzles out and turns back downwards, on phone at the moment so haven't any prices handy to see what the key levels are.

As far as milk is concerned in the near term surely the problem is that Irish prices haven't yet got to the gdt levels?

Nutshell.

Coop support, intervention etc are putting a false floor on price.

The sooner that it hits 12/14cpl the better!



I was reading on another forum (French) where an Irish dairy farmer was saying that xbreds are the cure for low dairy prices...sure that's fine so...but, but, what breed of dairy cows do they have in NZ??

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

I was reading on another forum (French) where an Irish dairy farmer was saying that xbreds are the cure for low dairy prices...sure that's fine so...but, but, what breed of dairy cows do they have in NZ??

Its misplaced logic.

Production needs to be severely reduced to save prices.....And x-breds severely reduce your production.

Allegedly.

* I'm no expert but I think it's because some of those Jerseys are so small you can only actually find three quarters of them when it's time for milking?

Farmer Ed

In fairness Irish prices shouldn't have to fall to gdt prices. Not all our milk ends up on the world market. The processors with the highest % of their products going in to more higher value added products should still be able to pay a better price. That's is probably part of the reason why already we are starting to see a price gap opening up. If your only market is powder then you are going to be hit the hardest.

Bass Reeves

Dawggone wrote: »

Nutshell.

Coop support, intervention etc are putting a false floor on price.

The sooner that it hits 12/14cpl the better!



I was reading on another forum (French) where an Irish dairy farmer was saying that xbreds are the cure for low dairy prices...sure that's fine so...but, but, what breed of dairy cows do they have in NZ??

Use he have Red hair and write for the journal I wonder.

Willfarman

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Best thing to cure low prices is low prices.

After the Us election oil prices will creep up again. Milk will follow 30c/L late 2017 will continue to head north until late 2018/early 2019 then starts to drop. 3-4 year cycle hitting 40c/L and down to 20c/L.

Rangler loves to quote that when defending the ifa's dismal record in curtailing Larry and co. I think Rangler was using sheep as a reference point.
And perhaps there's truth in it but it took 30 years of dismal suffering in the sheep in industry and even now it's not cured but there's a faint pulse in it.

There will be an upturn in milk albeit from a rise in oil, a rise in grain from war in the Ukraine or hurricane or drought in the grain belts of the world.
But for the guys with no money in the bank and farms maybe in early or mid development solid advise is of critical importance NOW.

How to negotiate and structure debt. Massive issue
Is there machinery in the yard leased bought or on hp that is under-utilised that should be got rid and a contractor used.
Is there recent land purchase that should be returned to market. Legal fees and tax implications to same.
Work life balance. Massive issue. Listening and reading some mad stuff lately on this.

Timmaay

Bass Reeves wrote: »

If grain prices remain as is fellas will start to leave land fallow. I saw posted on another thread that loads of maize set on tillage land because of late spring. Talk about being stupid plenty of cheap forage at the end of the year for Larry to fill the sheds with all those 2015 born cattle.

As well look at DD at the moment loads of adds for HE and AA suck calves. It a case of suck em and see for next 6-8 months.

I was talking to the chap who grows maize for me last week, his orders from dairyfarmers this year are well down, ordinarily that wouldnt bother him he'd just plant another crop, however very few crops make any economic sense this year! We were talking about the poor spring, late silage etc, and he wanted to know should he take a punt on more maize incase farmers were short next winter, I told him that was very risky, we simply won't have the money to pay for it and would rather cull instead which he accepted, however he's that much between a rock and a hard place that he was willing to take a punt on the extra based on our conversation about the late spring!!

jaymla627

Dawggone wrote: »

Nutshell.

Coop support, intervention etc are putting a false floor on price.

The sooner that it hits 12/14cpl the better!



I was reading on another forum (French) where an Irish dairy farmer was saying that xbreds are the cure for low dairy prices...sure that's fine so...but, but, what breed of dairy cows do they have in NZ??

Was bemused this morning when I asked milk tanker driver whats the deal was with all the lakeland lorries around the place, never seen one in all my time driving through our area but could meet 2-3 everyday now....
They're ferrying milk into ballyragget that's going into smp/wmp so obviously glanbia are buying this stuff at a hefty discount and lakeland are subbing the difference of 7 plus cent, they won't be long eating into their cash reserves at that racket

rangler1

Willfarman wrote: »

Rangler loves to quote that when defending the ifa's dismal record in curtailing Larry and co. I think Rangler was using sheep as a reference point.
And perhaps there's truth in it but it took 30 years of dismal suffering in the sheep in industry and even now it's not cured but there's a faint pulse in it.

There will be an upturn in milk albeit from a rise in oil, a rise in grain from war in the Ukraine or hurricane or drought in the grain belts of the world.
But for the guys with no money in the bank and farms maybe in early or mid development solid advise is of critical importance NOW.

How to negotiate and structure debt. Massive issue
Is there machinery in the yard leased bought or on hp that is under-utilised that should be got rid and a contractor used.
Is there recent land purchase that should be returned to market. Legal fees and tax implications to same.
Work life balance. Massive issue. Listening and reading some mad stuff lately on this.

That faint pulse will be under pressure if euro comes up more against sterling..... English were selling their lambs for £65 midseason i think last year.£65 a lamb is only about €80 if euro is 80p

mahoney_j

jaymla627 wrote: »

Was bemused this morning when I asked milk tanker driver whats the deal was with all the lakeland lorries around the place, never seen one in all my time driving through our area but could meet 2-3 everyday now....
They're ferrying milk into ballyragget that's going into smp/wmp so obviously glanbia are buying this stuff at a hefty discount and lakeland are subbing the difference of 7 plus cent, they won't be long eating into their cash reserves at that racket

A couple of tanks a day comming to north tipp as well from said coop

Milked out

Timmaay wrote: »

Bass Reeves wrote: »

If grain prices remain as is fellas will start to leave land fallow. I saw posted on another thread that loads of maize set on tillage land because of late spring. Talk about being stupid plenty of cheap forage at the end of the year for Larry to fill the sheds with all those 2015 born cattle.

As well look at DD at the moment loads of adds for HE and AA suck calves. It a case of suck em and see for next 6-8 months.

I was talking to the chap who grows maize for me last week, his orders from dairyfarmers this year are well down, ordinarily that wouldnt bother him he'd just plant another crop, however very few crops make any economic sense this year! We were talking about the poor spring, late silage etc, and he wanted to know should he take a punt on more maize incase farmers were short next winter, I told him that was very risky, we simply won't have the money to pay for it and would rather cull instead which he accepted, however he's that much between a rock and a hard place that he was willing to take a punt on the extra based on our conversation about the late spring!!

Add your reply here.
That's gas down here the lad that grows it for me has said demand is up with him as lads that would be usually taking early first cuts are grazing it instead and buying in winter feed

Milked out

Timmaay wrote: »

Bass Reeves wrote: »

If grain prices remain as is fellas will start to leave land fallow. I saw posted on another thread that loads of maize set on tillage land because of late spring. Talk about being stupid plenty of cheap forage at the end of the year for Larry to fill the sheds with all those 2015 born cattle.

As well look at DD at the moment loads of adds for HE and AA suck calves. It a case of suck em and see for next 6-8 months.

I was talking to the chap who grows maize for me last week, his orders from dairyfarmers this year are well down, ordinarily that wouldnt bother him he'd just plant another crop, however very few crops make any economic sense this year! We were talking about the poor spring, late silage etc, and he wanted to know should he take a punt on more maize incase farmers were short next winter, I told him that was very risky, we simply won't have the money to pay for it and would rather cull instead which he accepted, however he's that much between a rock and a hard place that he was willing to take a punt on the extra based on our conversation about the late spring!!

Add your reply here.
That's gas down here the lad that grows it for me has said demand is up with him as lads that would be usually taking early first cuts are grazing it instead and buying in winter feed

RightTurnClyde

jaymla627 wrote: »

Was bemused this morning when I asked milk tanker driver whats the deal was with all the lakeland lorries around the place, never seen one in all my time driving through our area but could meet 2-3 everyday now....
They're ferrying milk into ballyragget that's going into smp/wmp so obviously glanbia are buying this stuff at a hefty discount and lakeland are subbing the difference of 7 plus cent, they won't be long eating into their cash reserves at that racket

Where does the big percentage of their product go? High value product?
If they have a high enough percentage during the peak months going into high value products, it would pay them to effectively dump this excess milk, rather than having to buy milk in the shoulders to meet their needs

Bass Reeves

rangler1 wrote: »

That faint pulse will be under pressure if euro comes up more against sterling..... English were selling their lambs for £65 midseason i think last year.£65 a lamb is only about €80 if euro is 80p

I think the UK is a net exporter of lamb so because sterling is strong there would be downward pressure on product.

Milked out wrote: »

Add your reply here.
That's gas down here the lad that grows it for me has said demand is up with him as lads that would be usually taking early first cuts are grazing it instead and buying in winter feed

Growing it and getting paid are two different things. Demand might be strong but as most contracts are verbal and maybe just inquiry as to cost of product this demand might not follow through. As Timmay said choice may be to cull sightly harder in the autumn rather than over winter old cows or cows with issue's. A lot will depend on perception coming into winter flat or falling price at year end will see farmers cull a rising price may see them hold, perception is everything.

Tillage farmers are a strange species they have a mortal fear of leaving land fallow. Maize is a gamble at the best of times. Dairy and beef farmers have been slipping away from growing it due to cost and risk of crop quality. Here now are tillage farmer's half advised by the FJ considering growing a crop that is risky at the best of times growing it for farmers that will more than likely be cash strapped in the autumn.

whelan2

jaymla627 wrote: »

Was bemused this morning when I asked milk tanker driver whats the deal was with all the lakeland lorries around the place, never seen one in all my time driving through our area but could meet 2-3 everyday now....
They're ferrying milk into ballyragget that's going into smp/wmp so obviously glanbia are buying this stuff at a hefty discount and lakeland are subbing the difference of 7 plus cent, they won't be long eating into their cash reserves at that racket

Was Ballyragget not to close when Bellview got up and running? Doesnt bother me where milk is going as long as we get a proper price for it

Buford T. Justice XIX

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

Where does the big percentage of their product go? High value product?
If they have a high enough percentage during the peak months going into high value products, it would pay them to effectively dump this excess milk, rather than having to buy milk in the shoulders to meet their needs

I was told Lee Strand co-op sell 2.5 liter cartons of milk rather than 2 liter as it would be more economical to give away the half liter than to dry the excess liquid milk.

freedominacup

whelan2 wrote: »

Was Ballyragget not to close when Bellview got up and running? Doesnt bother me where milk is going as long as we get a proper price for it

No, never part of the plan. Belview a one trick pony only. Balkyraggett has several strings to it's bow.

If we were to cash out of the plc would people have the stomach for buying out the agrbusiness, dairy Ireland and remainder of GII?

On 5 - 5.5 times ebiata (earnings) this would have a price tag of €250million approx. Cashing out should raise around €2billion.

Hard push on for another cent drop. All board and council members should be finding it hard to get anything done atm with all the calls. We are entitled to know exactly how bad it's going to be for the next three months and plan our inputs accordingly.

keep going

freedominacup wrote: »

No, never part of the plan. Belview a one trick pony only. Balkyraggett has several strings to it's bow.

If we were to cash out of the plc would people have the stomach for buying out the agrbusiness, dairy Ireland and remainder of GII?

On 5 - 5.5 times ebiata (earnings) this would have a price tag of €250million approx. Cashing out should raise around €2billion.

Hard push on for another cent drop. All board and council members should be finding it hard to get anything done atm with all the calls. We are entitled to know exactly how bad it's going to be for the next three months and plan our inputs accordingly.

based on info supplied to me a drop of 2 cent on its way for april and should be another 1.5 to 2 cent but carbery hope to support it for most of the peak season.this wipe is catching all products

Farmer Ed

keep going wrote: »

based on info supplied to me a drop of 2 cent on its way for april and should be another 1.5 to 2 cent but carbery hope to support it for most of the peak season.this wipe is catching all products

Is that 2 c in total of is it another 1.5 to 2 for may on top of the April cut ? If carberry don't drop your looking at a huge gap opening up