Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

kowtow

WheatenBriar wrote: »

A company or a son or daughter taking over the enterprise or starting a 'new' one is these msa's achilles heel as is strathroy, when do we expect the forces of president Icos and chairman glanbia to start carpet bombing tyrone?

The successor cause is a good example of the problem at work.. while many would argue that passing the obligations on without prior agreement from a successor is unlikely to stand up in court... the ICOS agreement may prevent anyone from ever testing the point.

In the worst case If a successor had - in effect - to get a release from the parent's "old" co-op before selling milk at all he may find he has to give up his right to test the legality of the clause or face a total loss of income while he waits (even if he could afford it) to test the point in court.

In effect co-ops would be using their legal monopolies (not just anyone can buy milk) to enforce each others MSA's - something which is properly the province of the courts.

It's difficult to look at that ICOS thing as anything other than a group of lazy co-ops trying to strengthen their oligopoly.

As Wheaten points out above, it's difficult to imagine anything further from the founding principles of the co-operative movement, and it's tragic.

orm0nd

mahoney_j wrote: »

Arrabawn base inc 0.2 SCC bonus 26.08 .my price 31.12 @4.28 fat 3.91 p .also announced that 2 cent per litre bonus paid on December ,Jan and Feb milk if you supply 20% ( I think) of peak months milk .ill milk in December to get that thanks .serms were mad for milk atmðŸ‘ðŸ‘ðŸ‘

Price 30.9 & cows yielded well on little meal

not milking in Dec for any money, maybe qualify for Jan bonus but certainly Feb

Injuryprone

Dairygold holding at 25.5 base

mahoney_j

orm0nd wrote: »

Price 30.9 & cows yielded well on little meal

not milking in Dec for any money, maybe qualify for Jan bonus but certainly Feb

Will milk what I need to get bonus in December ,frog all in Jan and def February .15/20 December cows dry feet up

milkprofit

And milk could move by computer who new about this ls still working for glanbia

WheatenBriar wrote: »

correct

No he wouldn't, he'd go home at five as usual and review the tbc results around 930 the next morning as usual and make a few phone calls

well as the strathroy affect shows it slows the fall alright

Lots of pressure in years gone by eg 2009 and they didn't give a hoot


The former to date doesn't happen due to the latter
The game changer in the last two years is the secret cartel has been broken
Sad to refer to a cooperative movement as a cartel isnt it

keep going

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

I hope Carbery don't cave in.

Indeed, I hope Carbery start to expand and bring in more suppliers.

There would be a huge payback to us all if the pressure from there resulted in efficiency gains in processing. This mantra of 'farmers need to be more efficient' should also be rammed back at processors!

Well carbery dropped and held at the same time...........the price the farmer gets is staying the same but we are putting a note in to say that 2 cent is being subsidised by them .if that keeps the others happy so what.wont be able to continue that price though as the markets are tough and if we drop it has nothing to do with pressure , it s the market at the moment.its hard to see what product is going to deliver the best return in the near future and im getting increasingly worried that this going to be a long one.the current revival in the gdt could be misleadingas volumes are much smaller but fonterra is shihting more product outside the gdt at lower prices and stocks are building.add in the current situation in the us and the political intervention In some countries and its very hard to see the light.may not be apopular view but given my limited knowledge of the market im not so sure that the processors are screwing us and im dont think now is the time for drastic changes

browned

36.81c/l for 4.63% fat and 3.93% protein scc 159.

Sacrolyte

GDT down. 3.1%

boggerman1

Sacrolyte wrote: »

GDT down. 3.1%

Butter down over 11% on 2 weeks ago.again the amount put up was around the 35,000 ton mark.we r in for a bumpy ride for next while.

kowtow

boggerman1 wrote: »

we r in for a bumpy ride for next while.

NZ dollar which is strongly influenced by milk price also seems to have run out of fizz on it's little recovery run... and at quite a critical technical level.

The consensus among currency dealers is that a full El Nino & curtailing of production is already priced in... so be interesting to see where both GDT & NZD go over the next few weeks.

For Ireland, what the Euro does vs $ is probably of equal importance in terms of farmgate price, this year we've had a currency boost of between 4 + 5 c by all accounts.

The silver lining - if there is one - is that if the US goes back to the printing presses (implying a stronger euro / weaker milk prices) it may tend to support general commodity prices in the short run - so at least we might avoid the worst of a double whammy.

Either way I'd see us somewhere between where NZ were a couple of months ago and where we are now for a good while yet.

RightTurnClyde

kowtow wrote: »

NZ dollar which is strongly influenced by milk price also seems to have run out of fizz on it's little recovery run... and at quite a critical technical level.

The consensus among currency dealers is that a full El Nino & curtailing of production is already priced in... so be interesting to see where both GDT & NZD go over the next few weeks.

For Ireland, what the Euro does vs $ is probably of equal importance in terms of farmgate price, this year we've had a currency boost of between 4 + 5 c by all accounts.

The silver lining - if there is one - is that if the US goes back to the printing presses (implying a stronger euro / weaker milk prices) it may tend to support general commodity prices in the short run - so at least we might avoid the worst of a double whammy.

Either way I'd see us somewhere between where NZ were a couple of months ago and where we are now for a good while yet.

Kowtow, so are you thinking ~25c or lower for another (good) while.

frazzledhome

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

Kowtow, so are you thinking ~25c or lower for another (good) while.

24c base till May, guaranteed. My first contribution to this thread for a while as now a little reality is being realised

mahoney_j

frazzledhome wrote: »

24c base till May, guaranteed. My first contribution to this thread for a while as now a little reality is being realised

Gdt auctions past while to me whilst good news were only telling a bit of story as volumes were well back ..24 cent till may ,glad I'm not a Glanbia supplier .were seemingly holding for next few months and offering bonus if u supply x amount of milk through Dec ,Jan ,Feb .fook knows what'll happen .supply well back in New Zealand ,dropping in us and also in Europe as we move towards end of season .el Nino or some other external could and will also have some effect .not banking on any sort of meaningful rise in price till at least mid 2016

WheatenBriar

frazzledhome wrote: »

24c base till May, guaranteed. My first contribution to this thread for a while as now a little reality is being realised

I thought there was a lot of reality, lowest milk price in the country from GiiL surely equates to the worst management and planning in the country n'est pas?

kowtow

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

Kowtow, so are you thinking ~25c or lower for another (good) while.

One way or another we haven't yet felt the full force a la GDT of the drop - weak euro, some product mix, co-op price support which is not yet fully transparent all have conspired to shield us here.

Less than 25c? Honestly don't know - in any market there is a balance of headwinds & tailwinds..

On the headwind side, - GDT rise on low volumes, strong hints of product in back channels & storage, press desperation in NZ & here to talk up El Nino - real slowdown in China (just look at Steel dumping). US domestic milk prices are high and globally feed prices aren't doing anything to slow production.

Tailwinds - there is a real cut in production in NZ, El Nino or not, is this enough to offset the US? - The US Fed may well play chicken again and gun the printing presses (although this is unlikely to be enough and may well not work as well as last time), Europe is a long way from fixed and Europe printing (QE) makes our powder relatively competitive. OTOH Irish land prices rise fast and there is a danger of getting trapped.

Overall it feels like we're in a structural change in commodity pricing.. the end of a bull run or supercycle which began in 2002/3 after the 2nd Iraq invasion. It is possible we could have one more big shot upwards, but personally I doubt it. These bull runs never last forever.

So it feels to me like a long squeeze - maybe with less volatility than we have been led to believe. Frazz's 24c sounds sensible until May, but the question surely is how much we can get above that next year? And - if we keep increasing production - how much of that volume is going to pull us down towards wherever the GDT is by then.

Sooner or later co-op price supports will evaporate and we will all see for ourselves whether Glanbia has been downright mean or just unusually transparent!

alps

frazzledhome wrote: »

24c base till May, guaranteed. My first contribution to this thread for a while as now a little reality is being realised

Not to worry......this hit me straight between the eyes 3 years ago.....

The day I saw the contract. .....

frazzledhome

WheatenBriar wrote: »

I thought there was a lot of reality, lowest milk price in the country from GiiL surely equates to the worst management and planning in the country n'est pas?

Wake up, this isn't about GII it's the reality for all bar the West Cork coops. Guys haven't seen it yet but for any coop holding price now they'll be letting blood come spring.

WheatenBriar

frazzledhome wrote: »

Wake up, this isn't about GII it's the reality for all bar the West Cork coops. Guys haven't seen it yet but for any coop holding price now they'll be letting blood come spring.

Lol and strathroy?

Milked out

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Lol and strathroy?

How much powder products does strathroy sell?

RightTurnClyde

mahoney_j wrote: »

and offering bonus if u supply x amount of milk through Dec ,Jan ,Feb

I hate those type of promises. If they're able to tell you now what the bonus is they should also be able to tell you the price.
In March our crowd were offering a 1c bonus for June and July milk for signing the MSA. They are supposed to be pegging Glanbias milk price.
When Glanbia dropped the price in June by 1c our crowd dropped by 1.5c and then gave the 1c bonus to the people that signed. And have remained 0.1 cent behind glanbia for the rest of the year.
So the bonus of 1c only turned out to be 0.5c and that was paid for by docking 0.1c every month for the rest of the year.
Smoke and Mirrors

WheatenBriar

Milked out wrote: »

How much powder products does strathroy sell?

My statement/question was on management and how Giil has become the lowest payer in the country, how embarrassing for those who bore us all that false promise just 3 years ago
Our lowest price is paying for the belview white elephant

frazzledhome

WheatenBriar wrote: »

My statement/question was on management and how Giil has become the lowest payer in the country, how embarrassing for those who bore us all that false promise just 3 years ago
Our lowest price is paying for the belview white elephant

When the price audit is completed whom do you think will be 1,2,3&4?

kowtow

frazzledhome wrote: »

When the price audit is completed whom do you think will be 1,2,3&4?

Which price audit and why can't we have it more often?

WheatenBriar

frazzledhome wrote: »

When the price audit is completed whom do you think will be 1,2,3&4?

Not Giil anyway unless theres a tie in the race at the bottom of crumbling cartel
But look,I'm a realist, this is big business, the farmer doesn't matter...

WheatenBriar

kowtow wrote: »

Which price audit and why can't we have it more often?

Its in the farmers journal regularly
No doubt some way will be found to fudge it to include the member 'bonus' which is payment for milk with our own money

frazzledhome

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Not Giil anyway unless theres a tie in the race at the bottom of crumbling cartel
But look,I'm a realist, this is big business, the farmer doesn't matter...

Would you care for a wager on it?

WheatenBriar

frazzledhome wrote: »

Would you care for a wager on it?

See my last post

frazzledhome

WheatenBriar wrote: »

My statement/question was on management and how Giil has become the lowest payer in the country, how embarrassing for those who bore us all that false promise just 3 years ago
Our lowest price is paying for the belview white elephant

May be a bit premature to declare it a white elephant just yet, don't you think?

I'm very pissed off at last price cut. Was expecting it as season is ending but really thought the coop would've been cut rather than the base. For the likes of me who'll be supplying a lot of milk for the winter it's going to mean a big cut in income.

Btw was in UK last week and spring suppliers to cheese factories are getting 18p/litre. Any uncontracted milk was going for 12p on the spot market. First Milk are introducing a cap on solids meaning that you can supply hi solid milk but will only be paid to a certain %

kowtow

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Its in the farmers journal regularly

thought so... didn't realise they were splitting out price supports for all the co-ops?

mahoney_j

kowtow wrote: »

Which price audit and why can't we have it more often?

Kpmg audit of Irish coops