Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

frazzledhome

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Legislation then to regulate the market
We all know who has too much power and who takes most margin from milk
I wasn't making a point on intervention per say,just on the injustice of the profit distribution
Yes and perhaps it is a justification for quotas too

I think we need to hold fire a while longer in calling for intervention and quota return.

Possibly the greatest competitive advantage NZ had was quotas in the EU. We have come off a record high price to a record low in 12 mths or so. There's no doubt there'll be a burn off of farmers producing milk and when the traders see the bottom they'll pile in again as if nothing had happened.

freedominacup

whelan2 wrote: »

http://ow.ly/RbO0b

According to this piece the lads below in Dairygold would want to keep an eye out around the10th of Sept. This clown is so unsure of what he's chairman of and who owns what that he's likely to try and chair Dairygold's next board meeting. He might as well for all the use he'll be around here. Take a bow whichever advisory committee that foisted him on the rest of us.

kevthegaff

Quotas gone only 4-5 months, so ill have to go back to producing 50% less milk on same repayments mmm. Wel really know after a few years, but i suspect countries outside of eu have increased production also. Quotas/no quotas wer at the bottom price wise in europe, this is a bigger concern

kevthegaff

freedominacup wrote: »

According to this piece the lads below in Dairygold would want to keep an eye out around the10th of Sept. This clown is so unsure of what he's chairman of and who owns what that he's likely to try and chair Dairygold's next board meeting. He might as well for all the use he'll be around here. Take a bow whichever advisory committee that foisted him on the rest of us.

Its pretty obvious reading kerry, lakeland, glanbias execs predictions they havent a clue when a recovery will happen, also very foggy on intervention too. Blame is being put on russia ban, china but no talk of efficiencys/ savings, just how the suppliers need to cut theyre cloth!

kowtow

WheatenBriar wrote:

Legislation then to regulate the market We all know who has too much power and who takes most margin from milk I wasn't making a point on intervention per say,just on the injustice of the profit distribution Yes and perhaps it is a justification for quotas too

We don't have market to regulate.

Our problem is that almost every other country sells profitable milk locally and then dumps the surplus in the powder market. Our primary market is the rest of the world's dumping ground.

And nobody wants to regulate that.

mahoney_j

kevthegaff wrote: »

Tiop, centenary, arrabawn, kerry and glambis all around this area! Nrth tipp

Ya forgot dairy gold Kev!!!

WheatenBriar

kevthegaff wrote: »

Quotas gone only 4-5 months, so ill have to go back to producing 50% less milk on same repayments mmm. Wel really know after a few years, but i suspect countries outside of eu have increased production also. Quotas/no quotas wer at the bottom price wise in europe, this is a bigger concern

No, produce what you do this year just at a fair wage
It burns my goat to hear lads describe last year as a record high price when all it was was a fair return for the work
Little wonder supermarkets love us when we have such low regard for the value of what we do
We work hard to feed people
The most essential item people have is their food

kowtow

WheatenBriar wrote: »

No, produce what you do this year just at a fair wage
It burns my goat to hear lads describe last year as a record high price when all it was was a fair return for the work
Little wonder supermarkets love us when we have such low regard for the value of what we do
We work hard to feed people
The most essential item people have is their food

The thing that people seem to miss is that - outside of branded products like kerrygold & some cheeses, and whatever niche infant formula occupies - there is no such thing as demand for Irish milk. We - along with NZ - are marginal producers, deliberately producing milk powder to sold and stored, or consumed, on the world's commodity markets.

This is a conscious decision on our part, we produce I think between 10 and 20 times as much milk as we require. We can't argue (vis a vi the world market price) that we are owed a fair wage for producing milk the world doesn't need at a price the world won't pay.

We might as well plant coffee beans and then complain that Brazil does it cheaper.

If we could climb up the value chain things would be a bit different, as I think the West Cork co-ops are proving month after month.

Hold tight, and don't get conned into supporting the mergers of any co-ops by men who will benefit more than you will - in some way or another - from the transaction taking place.

Sam Kade

Sacrolyte wrote: »

Sam. Your 3 days late. Lol

Ah ffs Sac I was only trying to cheer ye up

cute geoge

kevthegaff wrote: »

Quotas gone only 4-5 months, so ill have to go back to producing 50% less milk on same repayments mmm. Wel really know after a few years, but i suspect countries outside of eu have increased production also. Quotas/no quotas wer at the bottom price wise in europe, this is a bigger concern

Yet we have a couple of the biggest dairy companies in europe whose main priority is squeezing the dairy farmer .I did not buy into all this expansion but if you have borrowings ,you are at them plc's mercy.The golden years in dairy are probably over and we are looking at an average of 30 c/l going forward if lucky .I presume most expansion plans would need a better price then this or are lads happy to expand for this return

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

I think we need to hold fire a while longer in calling for intervention and quota return.

Possibly the greatest competitive advantage NZ had was quotas in the EU. We have come off a record high price to a record low in 12 mths or so. There's no doubt there'll be a burn off of farmers producing milk and when the traders see the bottom they'll pile in again as if nothing had happened.

Perfectly true. If you're waiting for a 'burn off' of farmers then you might wait a considerable time.
Remember the marketing thrust of Irish dairy..."we know fcuk all else and we will outlive/outlast the rest"
That is the marketing message that the your Coop's send to the market.
It will definitely work this time as currency is in our favour. Maybe not the next time.

Dumping premium product on the world market is a phuckin fools choice. See where it gets you.
Maybe ye should listen to Kowtow.

18MonthsaSlave

Watching German TV News and they were interviewing a Milk Farmer with 300 cows. He is planning to reduce his herd by about 25% over winter on account of the drop in the milk prices.
It doesn't help that we have had a heatwave and the maize growing for winter feed has withered away.
So... expect a glut of low quality beef in coming months too coming in to sections of the meat market.

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

Perfectly true. If you're waiting for a 'burn off' of farmers then you might wait a considerable time.
Remember the marketing thrust of Irish dairy..."we know fcuk all else and we will outlive/outlast the rest"
That is the marketing message that the your Coop's send to the market.
It will definitely work this time as currency is in our favour. Maybe not the next time.

Dumping premium product on the world market is a phuckin fools choice. See where it gets you.
Maybe ye should listen to Kowtow.

We have a very small domestic market as you know therefore most is exported. Plenty going into to high end users but the balance goes out in tonne bags on the seas looking for a home. Anyone who hasn't copped that at this stage is living under a stone.

This is partly as a result of our seasonal production and that's a choice we as farmers have made so must live with it.

As Kowtow says our surplus goes into the same market as every one else's surplus. We will never match continental Europe in price, never for the above reasons. When things are flying all is ok when its not we need to buckle in and ride it out.

We are producing commodity products and the more we expand the more we produce.

frazzledhome

kowtow wrote: »

The thing that people seem to miss is that - outside of branded products like kerrygold & some cheeses, and whatever niche infant formula occupies - there is no such thing as demand for Irish milk. We - along with NZ - are marginal producers, deliberately producing milk powder to sold and stored, or consumed, on the world's commodity markets.

This is a conscious decision on our part, we produce I think between 10 and 20 times as much milk as we require. We can't argue (vis a vi the world market price) that we are owed a fair wage for producing milk the world doesn't need at a price the world won't pay.

We might as well plant coffee beans and then complain that Brazil does it cheaper.

If we could climb up the value chain things would be a bit different, as I think the West Cork co-ops are proving month after month.

Hold tight, and don't get conned into supporting the mergers of any co-ops by men who will benefit more than you will - in some way or another - from the transaction taking place.

+1
Totally agree with all except last paragraph.

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

We have a very small domestic market as you know therefore most is exported. Plenty going into to high end users but the balance goes out in tonne bags on the seas looking for a home. Anyone who hasn't copped that at this stage is living under a stone.

This is partly as a result of our seasonal production and that's a choice we as farmers have made so must live with it.

As Kowtow says our surplus goes into the same market as every one else's surplus. We will never match continental Europe in price, never for the above reasons. When things are flying all is ok when its not we need to buckle in and ride it out.

We are producing commodity products and the more we expand the more we produce.

Poor.
If you read the Teagasc report on Irish dairy that Kowtow posted you well know that you can compete without any problems in this market. So can I.

Now you know full well that the Irish 'family farm' cannot. This is a social disaster.
What do you're discussion group/Coop/self help group say to the average family farm?

Or does anyone give a shyte?

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

We have a very small domestic market as you know therefore most is exported. Plenty going into to high end users but the balance goes out in tonne bags on the seas looking for a home. Anyone who hasn't copped that at this stage is living under a stone.

This is partly as a result of our seasonal production and that's a choice we as farmers have made so must live with it.

As Kowtow says our surplus goes into the same market as every one else's surplus. We will never match continental Europe in price, never for the above reasons. When things are flying all is ok when its not we need to buckle in and ride it out.

We are producing commodity products and the more we expand the more we produce.

Poor.
If you read the Teagasc report on Irish dairy that Kowtow posted you well know that you can compete without any problems in this market. So can I.

Now you know full well that the Irish 'family farm' cannot. This is a social disaster.
What do you're discussion group/Coop/self help group say to the average family farm?

Or does anyone give a shyte?

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

Poor.
If you read the Teagasc report on Irish dairy that Kowtow posted you well know that you can compete without any problems in this market. So can I.

Now you know full well that the Irish 'family farm' cannot. This is a social disaster.
What do you're discussion group/Coop/self help group say to the average family farm?

Or does anyone give a shyte?

To be fair with a post oozing the arrogance of that assuming we're a bunch of bumbling idiots, you're correct I don't give a shyte

Cassidy2

Dawggone wrote: »

Poor.
If you read the Teagasc report on Irish dairy that Kowtow posted you well know that you can compete without any problems in this market. So can I.

Now you know full well that the Irish 'family farm' cannot. This is a social disaster.
What do you're discussion group/Coop/self help group say to the average family farm?

Or does anyone give a shyte?

New Zealand third biggest co op produces more milk than all of Ireland.we are a grain of sand on the beach😊

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

To be fair with a post oozing the arrogance of that assuming we're a bunch of bumbling idiots, you're correct I don't give a shyte

I never said that anyone was a bumbling idiot...
With a brain like yours I thought I might tease out some intelligent conversation.
Obviously not.
All I've been doing is questioning the vector of the industry...

mf240

Cassidy2 wrote: »

New Zealand third biggest co op produces more milk than all of Ireland.we are a grain of sand on the beach😊

There are ten million bicycles in beijing.

caseman

Dawggone wrote: »

Poor.
If you read the Teagasc report on Irish dairy that Kowtow posted you well know that you can compete without any problems in this market. So can I.

Now you know full well that the Irish 'family farm' cannot. This is a social disaster.
What do you're discussion group/Coop/self help group say to the average family farm?

Or does anyone give a shyte?

Why can the irish family farm not compete in this market.
Lets say 100 cow herd one man show, surely he can make a good living going forward or am i missing something.

Timmaay

Dawggone wrote: »

Sooo.
The average BASE price I'll get this year is 36.97cpl. On this thread people (with massive MS) will be hard fought to attain this.
Did anyone actually read the Teagasc document that Kowtow posted?
TBH I've new appreciation for Teagasc.


For those of you that didn't read it the synopsis goes like...The larger dairy herds can compete with the EU and the rest of the world...but the rest are phucked. That includes the 'average' family farm.
Read it please. It's what I've been bullshyting about for toooo long.
The problem is land price and scale...

What do you think is a realistic land price out of interest? Or price of rent (on say a 10year lease?). And predictions for the both the price of land and rental prices moving forward here ha??

I know of a large (200 odd acres) dairyfarm which recently closed shop (due to management and family issues), the owners were initially looking for 300euros/acre to lease it, all I know is its now being set instead, so there's not a hope in hell they got anything the colour of that ha, 150e would be my guess!

kowtow

mf240 wrote:

There are ten million bicycles in beijing.

That's a fact?

In which case either the population there has been static for the last decade or they've started buying cars.

mf240

kowtow wrote: »

That's a fact?

In which case either the population there has been static for the last decade or they've started buying cars.

There gone to fat for bikes cos there eating all our cheese..

Try to keep up:D:D

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

That's a fact?

In which case either the population there has been static for the last decade or they've started buying cars.

Audi's...

mf240

Dawggone wrote: »

Audi's...

Four sprung duck technique.

kowtow

Truth is both Dawg + frazz are perfectly correct here. Two different sides of the same coin.

The most Successful expanders ought to be able to survive and thrive in a commodity world. They'll survive because they bought land cheap and manage it brilliantly.
And they'll thrive because their farms will be much much bigger than we are used to today.... land prices will need to fall in real terms and there will be many wiped out by debt along the way. Will we get used to this and let the banks and the markets do their work?

For the real family farm that remains.. let's say less than 100 cows... I can't see a long term future without some way of increasing value.. capturing the premium from grass. That implies a level of quality and attention to detail that we often don't appreciate or bother with in this country. It also involves a lot more risk (product risk not price risk) than we have been schooled for, and it takes years.

The reality is that the post quota world affects everyone even if expansion is not on the cards.

Cassidy2

kowtow wrote: »

That's a fact?

In which case either the population there has been static for the last decade or they've started buying cars.

What's your point

Panch18

mf240 wrote: »

There are ten million bicycles in beijing.

Ah Katie melua I believe

A rather attractive young woman if I remember correctly

Panch18

kowtow wrote: »

Truth is both Dawg + frazz are perfectly correct here. Two different sides of the same coin.

The most Successful expanders ought to be able to survive and thrive in a commodity world. They'll survive because they bought land cheap and manage it brilliantly.
And they'll thrive because their farms will be much much bigger than we are used to today.... land prices will need to fall in real terms and there will be many wiped out by debt along the way. Will we get used to this and let the banks and the markets do their work?

For the real family farm that remains.. let's say less than 100 cows... I can't see a long term future without some way of increasing value.. capturing the premium from grass. That implies a level of quality and attention to detail that we often don't appreciate or bother with in this country. It also involves a lot more risk (product risk not price risk) than we have been schooled for, and it takes years.

The reality is that the post quota world affects everyone even if expansion is not on the cards.

The 100 cow farm in Ireland will be fine for the next 20 years at least in this country as long as they can control costs and debt levels. Do that and they'll be fine.

Much more likely to last in fact than some of the bigger operations