Clermont vs Munster buildup thread **read post one

desertcircus

There's just too many variables in les jaunards' favour. Munster need 23 career-best performances, and even with that Clermont would need about six players to have an off day. 36-9 to Clermont, unfortunately.

Buer

I'd be surprised if we saw such a wide score line. These games are cagey affairs. Teams keep it tight and are terrified to make mistakes. The occasion affects everyone. 10 or so points is a big win at this point. I think Clermont will win through sheer power and pace but Munster will set out to make it very difficult for them first and foremost.

Rightwing

Munster by more than 10

Guess the exact score, let's see who is the best forecaster: 8-6
rightwing: 19-23
mrpdap: 18-19
thomond2006: 25-06
podge_irl: 23-16
awec: 25-12
clareman: 14-19
schools rugby 18-19
grimebox: 36-9
glass prison 1214: 39-16
DDC1990: 11-18
donfers: 31-17
somefool: 10-12
Jermaine Breezy Squadron: 29-12
desertcircus: 36-9

Grimebox

Clermont by 1-10

Buer wrote: »

I'd be surprised if we saw such a wide score line. These games are cagey affairs. Teams keep it tight and are terrified to make mistakes. The occasion affects everyone. 10 or so points is a big win at this point. I think Clermont will win through sheer power and pace but Munster will set out to make it very difficult for them first and foremost.

This is usually true, but I just can't see Munster preventing the likes of Fofana from making breaks

I think Munster just have to pray for rain and hope that their pack does enough to gain at least parity in the set piece and the breakdown.

.ak

Buer wrote: »

I'd be surprised if we saw such a wide score line. These games are cagey affairs. Teams keep it tight and are terrified to make mistakes. The occasion affects everyone. 10 or so points is a big win at this point. I think Clermont will win through sheer power and pace but Munster will set out to make it very difficult for them first and foremost.

True. I think Quinlan was talking to Sky sports last year about how teams approach semi finals. The nerves are ramped up. Scores tend to be lower as both teams try and play error-free rugby and don't risk throwing the ball around. Finals are often different, as there's a nothing-to-lose attitude - a let loose mindset because now you're in the final and all that hard work paid off. Not exactly logical, but I can see where he's coming from. The hype around the semi's tends to be massive, if anything it's more pressure than what's put on the finals.

From a Leinster point of view I can see where he's coming from, when I think of our semi's along the road to our finals they're possibly bigger games (in terms of pressure) than the finals themselves (Munster '09, Toulouse '11, Clermont '12).

This applies for Clermont especially, they've already admitted they don't want to mess up like last year, defensively they were suspect and leaked a few pens and obviously the Healy try. The Fofana try may have sealed them the game, but they can't blame themselves for that as it was a lovely bit of defending by D'Arcy. It's the little things they'll be working on.

I can't see it being a high scoring game either way. Nothing to do with what Munster can do to stop Clermont playing a high tempo game, but rather Clermont stopping themselves.

Although you get the feeling that if Munster mess up, and leak a try or two and Clermont get two scores ahead then the flood gates could open...

thomond2006

Preview will go up when teams are announced on Friday.

Rightwing

Munster by more than 10

I heard on the radio that POM & Downey are doubtful. :mad:

phog

From MFs.com

molloyjh

Munster by 1-10

.ak wrote: »

Although you get the feeling that if Munster mess up, and leak a try or two and Clermont get two scores ahead then the flood gates could open...

This. Munster need to keep it tight for as long as possible. If they can do that then Clermont might start to get a little nervous. If Clermont get in for 1 or 2 in the first half and put a little bit of daylight between the sides then Munster will need to go and play in the second. Clermont would have a field day with them then.

The starting XV need to give it absolutely everything to bottle up Clermont in the first 60.

Rightwing

Munster by more than 10

They are afraid of the legend

The Clermont supremo said
"But the decision has been made, we are not dwelling on it. We are moving forward and we know he is on the team opposite us and we will try and counter him. We will try get our game in place and get him puffing a bit."

TheVman

molloyjh wrote: »

This. Munster need to keep it tight for as long as possible. If they can do that then Clermont might start to get a little nervous. If Clermont get in for 1 or 2 in the first half and put a little bit of daylight between the sides then Munster will need to go and play in the second. Clermont would have a field day with them then.

The starting XV need to give it absolutely everything to bottle up Clermont in the first 60.

Munster have to do to Clermont what they done to Munster a fe years ago keep it short, ruck, pick and go and wait for a chance to open up.
Clermont are not unbeatable and they can be shook up a little by the big occasion and even the fact the match is on french ground...

Come on Munster and give those Freddy the Frogs a good thrashing !

Up TIPP !

molloyjh

Munster by 1-10

TheVman wrote: »

Munster have to do to Clermont what they done to Munster a fe years ago keep it short, ruck, pick and go and wait for a chance to open up.
Clermont are not unbeatable and they can be shook up a little by the big occasion and even the fact the match is on french ground...

Come on Munster and give those Freddy the Frogs a good thrashing !

Up TIPP !

I don't think the occasion will get to Clermont. It didn't last year when they were facing their bogey team. They played to their ability for the full 80.

It's debatable whether they'll get hit with the nerves at all given that they didn't in the SF last year. But that's Munsters only play. You're not going to beat these guys up front. They're too big. You're not going to beat them in an open game. They're too fast and too skillful. You have to just bottle the whole thing up and hope they get anxious in the final quarter. That might happen because they expect to beat Munster and so that adds a certain amount of pressure.

Unless Clermont do suffer the yips though I can't see any way for Munster to win it.

totallegend

Clermont by 1-10

molloyjh wrote: »

The starting XV need to give it absolutely everything to bottle up Clermont in the first 60.

The problem here is that Munster's bench lacks real impact if the first XV are knackered.

Likely subs are Varley, WDP, Holland, Doc2, Williams, Keatley and Hurley, plus whoever third choice TH is. Of them, only Keatley really offers much of a game changing threat.

TheVman

molloyjh wrote: »

I don't think the occasion will get to Clermont. It didn't last year when they were facing their bogey team. They played to their ability for the full 80.

It's debatable whether they'll get hit with the nerves at all given that they didn't in the SF last year. But that's Munsters only play. You're not going to beat these guys up front. They're too big. You're not going to beat them in an open game. They're too fast and too skillful. You have to just bottle the whole thing up and hope they get anxious in the final quarter. That might happen because they expect to beat Munster and so that adds a certain amount of pressure.

Unless Clermont do suffer the yips though I can't see any way for Munster to win it.

Toulouse brought on the heavies and won the second half last weekend. There not "too big" there no bigger (relatively) than another front row (apart from debaty )) or second row.
As much as i admire them in every position (ive seen them several times this season) Im going to Montpellier because I want Munster to win and i want to believe and "keep the faith"
Stand up and fight like hell!

molloyjh

Munster by 1-10

totallegend wrote: »

The problem here is that Munster's bench lacks real impact.

Likely subs are Varley, WDP, Holland, Doc2, Williams, Keatley and Hurley, plus whoever third choice TH is. Of them, only Keatley really offers much of a game changing threat.

On the basis that we're hoping Clermont lose their nerve in the final quarter I reckon bringing Varley, WDP, Holland, DOC2, Keatley (for Downey) and Hurley on might be enough. They're fresh legs to run at a side that are getting frustrated more than anything.

That all assumes Clermont do lose it though. I don't think they will. And so I don't think Munster will win.

molloyjh

Munster by 1-10

TheVman wrote: »

Toulouse brought on the heavies and won the second half last weekend. There not "too big" there no bigger (relatively) than another front row (apart from debaty )) or second row.
As much as i admire them in every position (ive seen them several times this season) Im going to Montpellier because I want Munster to win and i want to believe and "keep the faith"
Stand up and fight like hell!

Damn straight. And I hope you lose your voice doing so. That's what it's all about as a supporter.

Larbre34

Munster by more than 10

Munster 11/1 to win the HEC outright, daft odds, well worth a tenner....

.ak

TheVman wrote: »

Toulouse brought on the heavies and won the second half last weekend. There not "too big" there no bigger (relatively) than another front row (apart from debaty )) or second row.
As much as i admire them in every position (ive seen them several times this season) Im going to Montpellier because I want Munster to win and i want to believe and "keep the faith"
Stand up and fight like hell!

In fairness, Clermont took their foot of the gas after gutting Toulouse like a freshly caught mackerel.

Rightwing

Munster by more than 10

Looks like Clermont will be at full strength, POM & Downey now also expected to be passed fit.

awec

Clermont by 1-10

Larbre34 wrote: »

Munster 11/1 to win the HEC outright, daft odds, well worth a tenner....

The odds have lengthened then if that's the case, they were 9/1 a while back.

yimrsg

TheVman wrote: »

Toulouse brought on the heavies and won the second half last weekend. There not "too big" there no bigger (relatively) than another front row (apart from debaty )) or second row.
As much as i admire them in every position (ive seen them several times this season) Im going to Montpellier because I want Munster to win and i want to believe and "keep the faith"
Stand up and fight like hell!

The second half was a draw I'm afraid. Toulouse changed their tight 5 after they were stuffed in the first half, Noves had to do something to get back in the game. There was a stat in the first half that Clermont were only in the Toulouse 22 for 1:28 and scored 3 tries compared to Toulouse 2:30ish and no tries despite 50:50 possession and territory.

Clermont were over the finish line and knew they could ease up. In the second half I think it was closer to 70:30 territory/possession in favour of Toulouse and Clermont still managed to draw the second half.

Rightwing

Munster by more than 10

Match facts

• Clermont are the only semi-finalists to maintain a 100% record this season, they have won seven from seven, a club record run in this tournament.
• Munster have faced French opposition on 50 occasions in this tournament, more often than any other club. They have won 34 of those matches.
• Napolioni Nalaga is the leading try scorer in the Heineken Cup this season (6) with Wesley Fofana (5) joint second on the list alongside Alex Cuthbert.
• Munster have missed fewer tackles per match (7.3) than any other side in this year's competition.
• These sides have met on four previous occasions in this competition, with each side securing two wins and all four of these wins coming as home victories.

Swan Curry

If Clermont reach the final and win,will they be the first team in the history of the competition to have won every match they had?

Podge_irl

Clermont by 1-10

Swan Curry wrote: »

If Clermont reach the final and win,will they be the first team in the history of the competition to have won every match they had?

Since it went to home and away in the group phase yet.

Brive did it eons ago under a different format.

Buer

Swan Curry wrote: »

If Clermont reach the final and win,will they be the first team in the history of the competition to have won every match they had?

Brive 1997.

thomond2006

Rougerie's absence confirmed: http://www.lamontagne.fr/auvergne/sports/actualite/rugby/2013/04/25/asm-rougerie-forfait-1529664.html

Rightwing

Munster by more than 10

Good, so both captains out. Balances itself out in that regard.
Can't wait for this one.

trouttrout

Rightwing wrote: »

Good, so both captains out. Balances itself out in that regard.
Can't wait for this one.

Doesn't really. Rougarie is much better than Howlett this season

Dubliner28

Clermont by 1-10

Rightwing wrote: »

Guess the exact score, let's see who is the best forecaster: 8-6
rightwing: 19-23
mrpdap: 18-19
thomond2006: 25-06
podge_irl: 23-16
awec: 25-12
clareman: 14-19
schools rugby 18-19
grimebox: 36-9
glass prison 1214: 39-16
DDC1990: 11-18
donfers: 31-17
somefool: 10-12
Jermaine Breezy Squadron: 29-12
desertcircus: 36-9

33:18 Clermont