Buying bitcoins

Dohnjoe

makeorbrake wrote: »

Some of them have been wrong, some of them have been right.

That's because they've been guesses

I've learnt in the past 4 years of BTC is that no one really has a clue. It's not like other commodities/bonds where information can be correlated, calculations made and price movements anticipated

It's survived a bubble and appears to have a baseline price, but if someone is coming here seeking validation for investment - the answer is still the same as it was 4 years ago - invest what you can only afford to lose

makeorbrake

Dohnjoe wrote: »

That's because they've been guesses

Yes, they are guesses. We have to bear in mind that in the grand scheme of things, bitcoin is a very young currency(? - question mark as some class it as a currency, some as a commodity just as gold has been utilised - and of course, there are other uses which remain undeveloped as such...for the most part....i.e. smart contracts, etc.).

The last major plummet happened in the aftermath of the Mt. Gox collapse (when Mt. Gox as an exchange dealt with some 70% of all transactions at the time - I'm open to correction on that figure but I think it was something like that). That's not got the same level of vulnerability now - exchanges can still be hacked (and there has been a very recent example) but BTC investors should be savvy enough to know not to leave their funds lying in an exchange at this point.


Bitcoin continues to come up against major problems but has continued to evolve and overcome those issues. Whether it can continue to overcome the roadblocks that stymie it remains to be seen. However, I'd really like to see it succeed. Theres a whole industry (and a highly profitable industry) that need to see it fail (or else it will simply destroy them).


I have been trying to seek validation as regards whether its still appropriate to buy in - but it seems like an impossible task. Ergo....I agree with Dohnjoe - can only justify investing what you can afford although part of me wonders if you really take a long term view (IF you have the confidence in the BTC project - that it will endure), then is there an argument to be made that any volatility you can ride out?.

That's just my mutterings - form your own opinion! I don't want anyone coming back to me having lost their life savings should BTC collapse completely and be superceeded by a different cryptocurrency!

DeSelby83

BTC seems to be on the up and up. I had thought about investing in some last year but forgot about it, which I am starting to regret now but hey ho such is life. Anyway I am now going to dip my toe in the water and put away a small bit of expendable cash that I have at the end of the month. My next question is where to buy from. I have tried doing some research but there are so many good and bad stories about every exchange site out there. I am also a bit concerned about uploading my ID to these places for verification, how safe is it? So who would you recommend to use from experience?

makeorbrake

DeSelby83 wrote: »

BTC seems to be on the up and up. I had thought about investing in some last year but forgot about it, which I am starting to regret now but hey ho such is life. Anyway I am now going to dip my toe in the water and put away a small bit of expendable cash that I have at the end of the month. My next question is where to buy from. I have tried doing some research but there are so many good and bad stories about every exchange site out there. I am also a bit concerned about uploading my ID to these places for verification, how safe is it? So who would you recommend to use from experience?

I wouldn't be concerned too much about verification - all of these exchanges are licensed and have an obligation to put customers through the verification process - Know Your Customer & Anti-Money Laundering regulations.


As regards the exchanges themselves, do NOT hold any BTC in the wallet that comes with the account - use your own secure wallet.

As regards which exchange, for me it's whichever you can secure the best deal with - so perhaps register with a few - if the amounts are going to be significant. If not that significant, then I guess it doesn't matter all too much.

I have mixed feelings about the uplift in price over the past 12 months or so. Have a (relative to my personal finances) not inconsiderable sum in BTC - so for that have benefitted big time. However, 12 months ago I was contemplating buying a lot more - and procrastinated to a point where there was a major uplift in price - and I felt I'd missed the opportunity.

Still - it's a very volatile investment - so it could just as easily go the other way!

alb

alb wrote: »

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

Or if you look at Nov 2013 it's down from $1100.

I look forward to the day this unimportant argument no longer applies, hopefully within the next 3-6 months

Well, we're above $1100 now, right on schedule

makeorbrake wrote: »

I have mixed feelings about the uplift in price over the past 12 months or so. Have a (relative to my personal finances) not inconsiderable sum in BTC - so for that have benefitted big time.

Yeah me too, I had thought an extended rally after the halving was the most likely scenario and indeed I think it's most likely that we break through the ATH soon and continue up. Wouldn't be surprised if this bull market ends with a sharp violent upward spike as all the others have done (probably requires ETF approval, see below).
On the other hand it *feels* expensive and we've been on the up for a long time, so I can't help taking just a little profit, keeping some dry powder for any panic crashes.

In any case, the big event looming is the US SEC's decision on whether the amendments required for the Winklevoss COIN ETF to proceed are approved or not. The deadline for a rejection is apparently March 11th otherwise it's approved implicitly. It wouldn't be surprising for bitcoin to continue to rally until a decision on that, and then violently go one way or the other depending on the outcome. The bitmex.com exchange has a binary market on whether the ETF will be approached, currently trading at a 37% chance of success - seems a little high to me, I'm not so optimistic.

I'm disappointed I've little to talk about other than the price or ETF hype, the scaling debate continues and neither the latest software release by Core (with the segwit feature) nor the alternative Bitcoin Unlimited software have achieved anything close to a majority of miners yet. Circle are no longer providing buying/selling bitcoin as a service which is disappointing as it was great.

DeSelby83

Some good advice on here. Thanks for that. I think I'm going to invest a little more this week ahead of the march 11th decision. If it climbs then happy days,if not I'm sure it will rebound in time. I just feel that waiting for a time to buy is impossible to predict so averaging out over the year may be the way I approach this.

makeorbrake

DeSelby83 wrote: »

Some good advice on here. Thanks for that. I think I'm going to invest a little more this week ahead of the march 11th decision. If it climbs then happy days,if not I'm sure it will rebound in time. I just feel that waiting for a time to buy is impossible to predict so averaging out over the year may be the way I approach this.

Even in the last few days, there's been an uplift - currently trading at $1170 level - as speculation mounts ahead of the ETF decision...

pro_gnostic_8

DeSelby83 wrote: »

I think I'm going to invest a little more this week ahead of the march 11th decision.

Have been a long-term holder of BTC, but last night I put up an offer price of €1,120 on Bitstamp which was taken and I have sold all of my coins.
I just don't feel comfortable holding any BTC in the run-up to the ETF. I honestly think the Winklevii will not succeed in getting approval from the SEC for their fund ...... even though the betting on the Bitmex market gives it a 48% chance. (This, of course, could be bettors/players hedging).
https://www.bitmex.com/app/trade/COIN_BH17

Whatever the outcome, I prefer to be divested until the SEC gives its verdict and wait until the dust settles. If, as I think is probable, that approval is denied there is no doubt that BTC's price will plunge. I don't want to appear brash but I'll call it as follows for the helluvit:
Approved:- BTC to climb to $1,600 with a floor of $1,400
Not Approved:- BTC to fall to $600.

BrokenArrows

Is bitcoin spreading in having an actual use rather then purely a speculative currency?

I buy pretty much everything online (apart from groceries) but i dont recall ever seeing bitcoin as a payment option.

pro_gnostic_8

BrokenArrows wrote: »

I buy pretty much everything online (apart from groceries) but i dont recall ever seeing bitcoin as a payment option.

You can't buy anything online from the DarkWeb except WITH bicoin, BrokenArrows ! :P
But, yes, you are correct; the uptake of bitcoin acceptance has been somewhat disappointingly slow in the mainstream mercantile world. Even though Satoshi foresaw bitcoin as a payment mechanism and remittance system, I truly now think that it is largely used as a store of wealth and as a speculation.
I like to use bitcoin whenever I can because of its fast transfer and transactional ease, but I cannot use bitcoin to pay my utility bills, car insurance and tax, etc etc, for example. Until that changes, it will be of limited attraction to the mass populace. There is another drawback in that bitcoin payments are irreversible as against Paypal or CC's. Always use escrow.

At present, it is estimated that there are approx 100,000 merchants globally who accept bitcoin; but there is a long way to go.

alb

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Is bitcoin spreading in having an actual use rather then purely a speculative currency?

I buy pretty much everything online (apart from groceries) but i dont recall ever seeing bitcoin as a payment option.

I think why a lot of people have underestimated bitcoin so far is that they are too concerned with merchant adoption, and phrase it as you did as "actual use", which is to say that speculative investment and trading are not actual uses.

As pro_gnostic_8 says, merchant adoption (at least for legal merchants) has been disappointing and is probably decreasing rather than increasing, but this isn't necessarily a problem for bitcoin right now. Transaction levels are higher than ever and are frequently close to capacity, so any kind of wide scale merchant adoption right now would have been a disaster anyway.

Bitcoin will need a 'level 2' on top of it to support merchant transactions at any kind of mainstream level. It will be a number of years, if it happens.

Having said that, I think that Bitcoin can continue to grow by remaining what it is right now - a new competitor to gold as decentralised money.

(EDIT: for the record we're at $1225 now)

pro_gnostic_8

alb wrote: »

(EDIT: for the record we're at $1225 now)

And it IS a record, I believe ............ a new All-Time High if memory serves me right. (I reckon, tho', this price level is just too high -- that bitcoin is overpriced. If we accept that the pro-traders have factored in a roughly $200 premium on the price on the strength of an approval for the ETF, then, this makes a bad time and a bad price at which to buy. My opinion only, of course).

That kind of wide scale merchant adoption right now would have been a disaster anyway.
Bitcoin will need a 'level 2' on top of it to support merchant transactions at any kind of mainstream level.

.
This is so very true. Scalability is currently a big issue with btc, and will only become moreso until Segwit or Lightening or something is agreed upon and integrated. Last week the mempool hit a figure of ~80,000 ( tx's waiting to be confirmed). Unless you pay a high fee nowadays, you could be waiting for anything up to two days. It needs sorting and quick -- and as alb says so correctly, a widespread adoption of global mercantile acceptance at present could well likely crash the network.

alb

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

And it IS a record, I believe ............ a new All-Time High if memory serves me right. (I reckon, tho', this price level is just too high -- that bitcoin is overpriced. If we accept that the pro-traders have factored in a roughly $200 premium on the price on the strength of an approval for the ETF, then, this makes a bad time and a bad price at which to buy. My opinion only, of course).

Yeah new all-time highs on many exchanges today. If you think the ETF approval is already priced in it is a bad time, if you think ETF approval will send it much higher... as in 1000s higher then it's a good time, but better to just wait until it's concrete one way or the other probably. I've no idea how to tell so I've taken some profit and I'm ready to go short in the short term if there's a rejection, but my long term holdings will remain, as the ETF isn't strictly required for bitcoin to continue what it's been doing the last couple of years.

zulutango

Whatever way you cut it, so long as the protocol is secure, so long as bitcoins are transferable and so long as there is a fixed supply, then the price will trend upwards at least until there is widescale adoption.

pro_gnostic_8

I'm inclined to agree, Zulu, even allowing for the scaling problems and the increase in tx fees and transaction times.
I've been a longtime believer in the cryptocurrency and have ridden the spike since back in 2013 for substantial personal gain. So, trust me, it was very hard for me to sell them all two nights ago. They were like babies to me; it's a wrench to sell one's babies.
But the underlying logic of selling was indisputable -- to me at least. I am of the view that the ETF will not get approval and that consequently the bitcoin price will drop. I then intend to buy back at the subsequent lower rate.
Doesn't mean, tho', that I don't have faith in the future of bitcoin or its longterm prospects for again eventually graphing upwards.

Capt'n Midnight

Interesting that this in mainstream news now.

Also be interesting to see how this affects Bitcoin. If the Chinese govt is worried about wealth transfer out of China using bitcoins things could get interesting.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-23/pboc-is-going-digital-as-mobile-payments-boom-transforms-economy

After assembling a research team in 2014, the People’s Bank of China has done trial runs of its prototype cryptocurrency.

pro_gnostic_8

Interesting, but a terrible, terrible innovation if the PBOC puts the idea into fullscale operation. I hope that the people will see it for what it really is, and that it is a complete failure.
Okay, it will use blockchain but that is about as far as the comparison with a true cryptocurrency like Bitcoin goes. There is no decentralisation, no miners, no Proof of Work, no block rewards, no independent network nodes. no anonymity.
"The PBOC creates cryptocurrency and transfers it to commercial banks when more liquidity is needed". Yeah just like fiat issued by a centralised authority but in a digitized form. It is that (governmental control) which we are trying to get away from. Disaster.

Thargor

alb wrote: »

Yeah new all-time highs on many exchanges today. If you think the ETF approval is already priced in it is a bad time, if you think ETF approval will send it much higher... as in 1000s higher then it's a good time, but better to just wait until it's concrete one way or the other probably. I've no idea how to tell so I've taken some profit and I'm ready to go short in the short term if there's a rejection, but my long term holdings will remain, as the ETF isn't strictly required for bitcoin to continue what it's been doing the last couple of years.

Can you short it?

alb

Thargor wrote: »

Can you short it?

Yes, there is leveraged shorting up to 5x on kraken.com which is a reasonably reputable US based exchange, which operates in Europe above board.

If you want to go full YOLO you can do up to 100x leveraged margin trading on bitmex.com, if you already have bitcoins (they only accept deposits and withdrawals in bitcoin). They are based in Hong Kong and I would consider the counterparty risk of depositing funds there much higher than kraken.

bitmex also have a binary market on whether the ETF will be approved or not.

makeorbrake

alb wrote: »

Yeah new all-time highs on many exchanges today. If you think the ETF approval is already priced in it is a bad time, if you think ETF approval will send it much higher... as in 1000s higher then it's a good time, but better to just wait until it's concrete one way or the other probably. I've no idea how to tell so I've taken some profit and I'm ready to go short in the short term if there's a rejection, but my long term holdings will remain, as the ETF isn't strictly required for bitcoin to continue what it's been doing the last couple of years.

The commentary online in the lead up to this has been to expect the ETF license to be turned down. Perhaps that view is changing and people have access to better information on the subject in the last couple of weeks.....or is it just unfocused speculation?

Either way, I'm quite happy to ride out the highs and lows. It's swings and roundabouts. If it bombs, I can justify buying in further (as I simply can't bring myself to that point right now). If it climbs on the back of a positive outcome, I'll be quids up as is.

pro_gnostic_8

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

You can't buy anything online from the DarkWeb except WITH bicoin, BrokenArrows ! :P
But, yes, you are correct; the uptake of bitcoin acceptance has been somewhat disappointingly slow in the mainstream mercantile world. Even though Satoshi foresaw bitcoin as a payment mechanism and remittance system, I truly now think that it is largely used as a store of wealth and as a speculation.
I like to use bitcoin whenever I can because of its fast transfer and transactional ease, but I cannot use bitcoin to pay my utility bills, car insurance and tax, etc etc, for example. Until that changes, it will be of limited attraction to the mass populace. There is another drawback in that bitcoin payments are irreversible as against Paypal or CC's. Always use escrow.

At present, it is estimated that there are approx 100,000 merchants globally who accept bitcoin; but there is a long way to go.

Not true you can also use Ethereum on the darknet.

pro_gnostic_8

Deleted User wrote: »

Not true you can also use Ethereum on the darknet.

You are absolutely correct. I didn't express myself properly in my post.
Yes indeed, a few "vendors" on the Darkweb will, if pushed, accept Ethereum, ETC, and Monero but the volumes of such are relatively tiny. Truly, Bitcoin is the de facto currency of the Tor network to the extent of accounting for around 95% of all trade there, I believe.

pro_gnostic_8

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

You are absolutely correct. I didn't express myself properly in my post.
Yes indeed, a few "vendors" on the Darkweb will, if pushed, accept Ethereum, ETC, and Monero but the volumes of such are relatively tiny. Truly, Bitcoin is the de facto currency of the Tor network to the extent of accounting for around 95% of all trade there, I believe.

Yeah but I reckon if someone has a few hundred to invest some of the smallter ones Ethereum or Monero might be worth an investment, if Bitcoin becomes more mainstream, the other ones might spike.

pro_gnostic_8

makeorbrake wrote: »

Perhaps that view is changing and people have access to better information on the subject in the last couple of weeks.....or is it just unfocused speculation?

Maybe there's an element of "Fear Of Missing Out" as well ?
People fearing missing out on a price spike if the ETF is approved. FOMO is always a strong motivator.
As it is, I remain convinced that in this short period of uncertainty regarding the ETF outcome that the current price of bitcoin is simply too high.

alb

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

FOMO is always a strong motivator.

You'll know we're in bubble territory again when you're buying back due to FOMO after the ETF is approved, another indicator will be a thread at the top of After Hours asking WTF bitcoin is, and a huge media hype cycle.

MyPeopleDrankTheSoup

this thread was dead last year when the price was pretty stabilised while i was buying bitcoin the whole time to actually buy things. i suppose this is the investments forum. but i find it hilarious people trotting out reasons for the increase in price. in truth, nobody knows. but if i'd to guess, all price fluctuations lately are sophisticated pump and dump schemes

makeorbrake

georgiecasey wrote: »

but i find it hilarious people trotting out reasons for the increase in price. in truth, nobody knows. but if i'd to guess, all price fluctuations lately are sophisticated pump and dump schemes

There have been some pretty solid reasons;

- The chinese bailing in to BTC as they can see their own currency under severe pressure. They see this as a method to get round government controls in an effort to maintain their personal wealth (proof that it's being used in a similar way to gold). The writing is on the wall, they've a property bubble and after so many years of growth, economy is beginning to struggle.

- The bitcoin halving last July.

- Several bitcoin enthusiasts/investors have been appointed as part of Trumps administration. The expectation is that btc at worst will be accepted in the u.s. and at best, openly embraced.

- Financial instability in various countries eg. Venezuela. The pattern is that anywhere a currency is instable, there's an uptick in citizens utilising btc.

- A surge in interest in btc in Mexico - due to concerns about potential troubles with Trump (which may result in the Peso being devalued). Trump also threatened to tax remittances (i.e. Western Union money being sent from the U.S. back home to Mexico). BTC seen as an alternative to overcome this for u.s. based mexicans.

- And of course, more recently, speculation as to whether an ETF license (or licenses) will be issued. ETF's facilitate investment in BTC without having to actually touch BTC directly. Its thought that this will be attractive to hedge funds...and that they will buy in to this.



I'm sure I haven't covered everything - but those are a selection.

scamalert

make or break those are speculations,that btc forums spit out daily,countries like venezuela,mexico,india are pi$$ poor,and people think because their currency is at risk they would switch to smth like btc,is complete nonsense.its like saying because currency is failing someone would start selling diamonds for bread.

Someone who asked about shorting btc,few forex brokers offer that option,but need to do your own research on reliability only benefit is you dont need to touch btc,just cash to have enough leverage.
pro_gnostic_8:
Bitcoin is the de facto currency of the Tor network to the extent of accounting for around 95% of all trade ,not just darkweb but id say all 95% happens just because of sites such as agora etc.People dont use btc for anything else or use it in such a way that there wouldnt be % applied to it,in general,only use for it, is stuff that otherwise people wouldnt risk accepting cash for their business.

Since its been long time and to implement btc theres plenty of shops stores that have that option since its so easy to setup,but actual business and global numbers shows no one wants to touch it,as years pass longterm.

I see excitement some have here,but in reality people that hold on to it is purely fiat benefit when it reaches such heights,thus speculating.What grinds me thou people comparing it to gold,since gold isnt smth you pull out digitally by doing maths callulation which has setup algorithm from get go,and it has value because its applied in manufacturing jewellery,thus creating industries and jobs,and people fail to realize that btc doesn't posses any of those traits,its only gateway solution to transfer cash,between deals.

makeorbrake

scamalert wrote: »

make or break those are speculations,that btc forums spit out daily,countries like venezuela,mexico,india are pi$$ poor,and people think because their currency is at risk they would switch to smth like btc,is complete nonsense.its like saying because currency is failing someone would start selling diamonds for bread.

I'm not going to argue with you - not agreeing or disagreeing with you - I keep an open mind on the subject. One of the biggest problems I have in trying to weigh up the efficacy of btc is trying to determine the merit of various stuff that gets reported.
You mention pi$$ poor countries and with that, one of the items that gets touted is the potential bitcoin has to enable people who are 'unbanked' - some 2 billion people are without bank accounts. Yes, it's because they are poor - but taken en mass, there may be significance in it.

scamalert wrote:

People dont use btc for anything else or use it in such a way that there wouldnt be % applied to it,in general,only use for it, is stuff that otherwise people wouldnt risk accepting cash for their business.

Part of the problem with this is that it's difficult for people to purchase bitcoin in the first instance. Regulations are cumbersome in this respect. Not sure if they're still pulling these stunts, but UK (and Irish) banks were screwing with btc exchanges - pulling their bank accounts - and in that way, paralysing their ability to operate effectively. BTC threatens to strip away revenue streams of the banks - and they won't let that happen easily.

scamalert wrote:

What grinds me thou people comparing it to gold,since gold isnt smth you pull out digitally by doing maths callulation which has setup algorithm from get go,and it has value because its applied in manufacturing jewellery,thus creating industries and jobs,and people fail to realize that btc doesn't posses any of those traits,

Not everything that gets reported can be 'fake' news. I'll take the chinese example. Clearly, there must have been reasonably significant take-up on btc in China recently - as their central bank responded warding people off the cryptocurrency and most recently, it's declared that it's going to come out with a digital currency of their own. China may have plenty of pi$$ poor people - but it's that vast that it has a burgeoning middle class also.

As regards the gold comparison, gold doesn't always have a major use. i.e. it's often simply used as a safe-haven - in order to protect wealth. What jobs does gold produce in Ireland?


Do you see any redeeming features in Bitcoin at all? Why has it not died already - OR - when do you expect it to get killed off?

(clearly, I'm sold on some of the upsides - but not to the extent that the above is arguing any point - more fascinated with what you (or others) come back with....i.e. mind not fully made up on the outcome (sold on the concept itself though - taking central banks out of the equation, not allowing them to 'print money' sounds like progression to me).

scamalert

makeorbrake im not against btc and its great tool for purposes it serves in the underground web,but im not naive to buy into hype what some people make it out to be.

so answers to some questions you made:

what jobs does gold create in ireland well in NI theres largest open pit mine in europe,think that accounts for something about mining,and jobs any precious metal craftsman has a job because of metals like gold,silver,platinum etc and entire industries based on that,even computer you type on has gold in it,because its hard to replace metal.

Now you mention Asia and 2bill people,last time ive checked btc was to tap out at 20mill,so this alone is instance where you have situation which is becoming hyperinflatied,satohis etc,so you dont get a btc anymore you get 0.000001,sort of situation like in zimbabve they buy bread or meal for 20 million,thus it escapes logic that someone would make 0.0000023 or you pay someone in such way on daily basis.

while you have good point people dont have accounts,but poor countries in Africa have means of transferring cash via mobile,and other means theres quite a range in every form to actually suit many needs when it comes to transfer,storing might be issue,but to suggest that someone who barely makes smth would implement btc which has insane fluctuation rate daily is worse-think of Zimbabwe example where one day you could have 5$ worth of fiat next day your 5$ is worth only half or double that-that's not a trait of any currency,youd want to have on daily basis.

since look at history of btc which started around 0.30c and gotten over 1k in less then half decade,even $ or almost any fiat hasnt had such fluctuation in 50 years to be anywhere so harsh in % rate,well except for ww2 germany and corrupt African countries.

Also idea that someone in china are ones who are able to mine,and are responsible for setting transaction prices and other means of how btc is controlled isnt smth reassuring.there may not be government or banks but some random person having power and control is worse.

in general btc is only great for people who knowingly or unknowingly got into it when it was cents per coin,and if they managed to get out when it was over 1k,id say they made quite a living out of actual nothing.reminds me of the first purchase was it dominos that got 50 coins for pizza,would be 60k in todays cash,for what prob took few hours of running algorithm on pc.Its also atm only way to get paid anonymously for stuff which otherwise would present difficulty in dealing ,since cant go to WU 10 times a day to collect cash without raising suspicion,paypal could easily freeze account if smth dodgy is suspected,bank transfer reveals to many details,and risk.thus btc is perfect for that that once you cash out its impossible to guess where it came from,or to track it down.

as for btc future if i had any or access to trade it id go in all short now or cash out,since this is second spike in almost two decades,and dont believe it will continue just to go up without people actually cashing out into fiat.and all this said dont think it will disappear any time soon since them 95% transaction totals dont have any other ways yet to deal anonymously,but dont see it adapted beyond that,people would actually come to idea that btc somehow is easier to use in daily life,when presented with so much random things that can go wrong,and volatility,which is suited only if one is able to gamble on cash not having rely on it on day to day basis.