Cold week ahead, change is on the way ............

patneve2

diceyd wrote: »

main story on radio nova is that dublins to get 10cm of snow tonight,any views on this?

Seriously doubt it

patneve2

I wouldn't call that precipitation convection, it's frontal

helloyeshi

Petrol_Head wrote: »

Hoping for that convection to start beginning further south as temps drop here on the East. That or more easterly wind!

I'm down on the beach doing a snow dance.

whitebriar

diceyd wrote: »

main story on radio nova is that dublins to get 10cm of snow tonight,any views on this?

Extremely unlikely.
A slushy dusting probably,but it will snow I think,quite wet stuff or sleet mixed by the coast.
The main story for Dublin is the streamer snow during the week.

Deank

Wow that front / streamer building in the Irish Sea heading for Ulster has really increased in size in the last hour.:eek:

Need a few of them building south of Anglesea for Dublin and mid Leinster to see anything.

whitebriar

Deank wrote: »

Wow that front / streamer building in the Irish Sea heading for Ulster has really increased in size in the last hour.:eek:

Need a few of them building south of Anglesea for Dublin and mid Leinster to see anything.

That is the front.
Bear in mind,it's that which will be spreading south westwards tonight,destination Valentia.
By the time it gets there,life support will be needed.
It was the front engaging with cold air Friday that really pepped it up.
It's lost that engagement now heading back home-hence the talk of fizzling out.

acassells80

Media seriously hyping this 10cm of snow for Dublin , doubt it prob more like 1cm!!

lucernarian

Just to reaffirm this, there will be no frontal precipitation south of Dublin. There's going to be no migration, the bands of precip may spread out a bit and clip Louth/Meath/Dublin. Anything else will come from weak convection, scattered showers which could leave an inch one place and nothing a few km away.

.

The air coming along on Monday/Tuesday looks like what we saw with our -12 850hPa uppers in February. Simply too cold to generate the precip for snow accumulations.

patneve2

Tonight/Tomorrow will be a feast of blowing snow grains for Dublin/Wicklow/Kildare. Maybe a cm or two from North Dublin to Louth.

whitebriar

Latest Dublin airport taf I've seen Is this one.
Basically they're expecting sleet at the airport over night and light snow from 6am ,ongoing through sunday.

2013/03/23 12:26 TAF EIDW 231100Z 2312/2412 09016KT 8000 SCT008 BKN012 TEMPO 2312/2322 10020G32KT TEMPO 2322/2405 5000 -RASN SCT005 BKN008 TEMPO 2406/2412 2000 -SN BKN004 TEMPO 2410/2412 10018G30KT

downwiththatsor

I assume this is based on Hirlam data? Shows a little precipitation for the Dublin area.

http://mathsci.ucd.ie/met/mcc-rain-d2.html

lucernarian

whitebriar wrote: »

Latest Dublin airport taf I've seen Is this one.
Basically they're expecting sleet at the airport over night and light snow from 6am ,ongoing through sunday.

2013/03/23 12:26 TAF EIDW 231100Z 2312/2412 09016KT 8000 SCT008 BKN012 TEMPO 2312/2322 10020G32KT TEMPO 2322/2405 5000 -RASN SCT005 BKN008 TEMPO 2406/2412 2000 -SN BKN004 TEMPO 2410/2412 10018G30KT

Sleet with dewpoints of -2. Hmmm. Bless their little socks but the only thing that will fall will be snow. It mightn't stick, but it will at least fall as something frozen. Sunday should have a nice bit of wispy snow graupel at least. I'd also say that Sunday will be the busiest day for snow showers out of the next 3 days. Here's hoping something interesting can happen...

Speak Now

-12 uppers like we had March 11th would be a treat.

whitebriar

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Sleet with dewpoints of -2. Hmmm. Bless their little socks but the only thing that will fall will be snow. It mightn't stick, but it will at least fall as something frozen. Sunday should have a nice bit of wispy snow graupel at least. I'd also say that Sunday will be the busiest day for snow showers out of the next 3 days. Here's hoping something interesting can happen...

OH I know that,I found the east coast FM forecast today amusing aswell.
I do hope they are being a bit more forthright with the runway doser drivers.

patneve2

Still think that Dublin may see something more substantial Wednesday/Thursday. As said by many of you here, that front is so weak that it can only realistically give a slight dusting on lower ground (maybe an inch or two on the Wicklow mountains). Looks interesting for parts of NI again later on.

Petrol_Head

Praying for a RAMP. Statistically speaking, we've been teased far too many times.

lucernarian

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

-12 uppers like we had March 11th would be a treat.

Out of curiousity, what would you like or appreciate about them? Is it the windchill or the wispy bits of snizzle that sting your face? :pac:

Deank

Slightly off topic, but could someone recommend a starter weather station, one that has an anemometer, rain gauge and is preferably wireless, looking to spend in or around €100 to €125. Cheers.

Speak Now

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Out of curiousity, what would you like or appreciate about them? Is it the windchill or the wispy bits of snizzle that sting your face? :pac:

The 10cm of snow they dropped on the south east coast when the winds slackened.

lucernarian

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

The 10cm of snow they dropped on the south east coast when the winds slackened.

That was the best the whole setup could offer. I found that a pretty meagre outcome for such cold temperatures. 10 cm of snow or less in half of Co. Waterford and Wexford.Compare with 2010, where Dublin and the entire east coast as far as Waterford would have been buried but for lucky wind directions keeping the snow mainly directed at Arklow or simply drifting harmlessly by the coast. The lower the dewpoints, the longer the journey across the sea needed to get those reasonable snow streamers. So I guess the likes of Waterford is better placed in that respect;)

hawkwing

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

No end in sight this evening to this cold spell
Might not deliver buckets of snow but is remarkable for late March (temps 10C below normal)
Windward coasts should at least see some snow falling through the week

Mean temperature in degrees Celsius for Casement
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2013 5.1 4.3 3.5
2012 6.0 6.6 8.5 6.6 10.2 13.1 14.3 15.6 11.9 8.5 6.1 5.2 9.4
mean 5.1 5.1 6.8 8.2 10.9 13.6 15.7 15.4 13.3 10.3 7.2 5.4 9.8

This is now the 12th month in a row except for August that Casement Dublin temps have been below the mean,hopefully this isn't going to continue for the "Summer" of 2013:o

patneve2

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

The 10cm of snow they dropped on the south east coast when the winds slackened.

It wasn't solely the uppers that gave you the snowfall, it was the particular configuration. Not saying that you won't get snow next week but the set-up was very different two weeks ago (deep low in the english channel enhancing convection in the Irish Sea)

Speak Now

patneve2 wrote: »

It wasn't solely the uppers that gave you the snowfall, it was the particular configuration. Not saying that you won't get snow next week but the set-up was very different two weeks ago (deep low in the english channel enhancing convection in the Irish Sea)

Yes like i said a repeat would be nice. April rushing in now so no panic as weve had our snow fix. Only 6 months and November will be approaching ;-)

whitebriar

Arklow by the way usually avoids showers in a direct easterly.
Dublin,especially south Dublin gets them alright but not as many as in a northeasterly.

hawkwing

Met.ie updated for Dublin
Dublin
23 March 2013- updated at 18:00

Tonight

Outbreaks of rain or sleet this evening and tonight turning to snow overnight, but amounts will be small. It will be a cold night with lowest temperatures of zero to 2 degrees, with a risk of frost and ice on some roads.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow, Sunday will be a very cold day with light snow at times. Although amounts of snow are likely to be small in most areas, the snow may cause some disruption. Easterly winds will be fresh and gusty throughout the day, making it feel bitterly cold. Highest temperatures of only 3 or 4 degrees.

John.Icy

What's this about the colder the uppers the less Irish sea action? First I've heard of that.

Isn't it usually the greater the difference between sea temperatures and 850's that drives greater convection?

If so we'd still need very cold uppers with sea temps still so low. The highest amount of action on the Irish sea so far was the spell in March with -12 uppers. The only reason for lack of accumulattions was the wind strength and at that many areas saw a covering for a time at least.

But tickle me pink if we need warmer 850's and less difference between them and sea temps for the best convection, didn't realise this.

Edit: read TBC's other post about dew points, gotcha now.

Rooy

Deank wrote: »

Slightly off topic, but could someone recommend a starter weather station, one that has an anemometer, rain gauge and is preferably wireless, looking to spend in or around €100 to €125. Cheers.

There is a recent seperate thread on the weather board regarding starter weather stations , a number of us have picked one up at half price from Maplin online :
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056876534

Number of comments /links on that thread.
I got one delivered last week , stuck it up yesterday , happy with it for < €80

Deank

Rooy wrote: »

There is a recent seperate thread on the weather board regarding starter weather stations , a number of us have picked one up at half price from Maplin online :
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056876534

Number of comments /links on that thread.
I got one delivered last week , stuck it up yesterday , happy with it for < €80

Thanks Rooy, just found it and posted on it, should have looked first

Petrol_Head

What's it like where you are?

John.Icy

UKMO +144...round two anyone? :P

Crazy GFS run, easterlies till past +300! Of course cold would be dwindling at that stage, but synotpically what potential for a sustained spell of blocking. We'd all kill for synoptics like this in December etc. Although, I'm glad we didn't get these synoptics earlier and only have them now. It's all good to say "this would be great if it had came in December". Let's not forget that there was ZILCH cold to our East nearly all winter till the end portion of January when the PV relocated. So sadly, the best time for these synoptics has been the month of March when you consider the depth of cold we can, and have tapped into.

Could be a very dry week for many, but I again think Easter Weekend could be another bite at an undercutting cherry. I stuck my neck out last time and said I saw potential for a huge snow event towards the beginning of this thread for the days gone by, when others said "tis only cold enough for hail and sleet". Although it wasn't as countrywide as I felt, the north did get a battering in some areas, and UK pictures speak for themselves. So yes, my eyes are firmly waiting for the next Atlantic low. With decent cold setting up, there'll be a much nicer cold pool over us if an undercut is to occur, although again in this situation we don't need severe cold, but it would be reaffirming to have frontal masses colliding with an airmass that will give snow to more of the country. Watch this space.