The Golf Tips Thread

okidoki987

munster87 wrote: »

The bet365 odds were too good to refuse for some...all mine manage tied 9th now!

.
Hills used to do it, 365 now taken it over.
It's great if you are backing player win only you're getting BP and if another bookie pushes a golfer, 365 will match it.
E/W, just have to decide if their place market is worth it for you which isn't an easy decision.

Potential Underachiever

okidoki987 wrote: »

Paddy Power/Sky Bet/Betfair all going 10 places (same owner), with Boylesports. Some of their outright prices a bit below others but that's the trade off for 10 places.
Hills & VBet 9 places, Bet365 8 places but they are best prices.

Always the same though isn't it, more places worse prices.

So the question I suppose is would you rather a 50/1 shot paying top 10, or a 66/1 shot paying top 8, I'm never too sure what way to go, probably depends on the length of odds you're dealing with, in the above scenario I'd probably take the better price as the player being backed is obviously decent'ish at that price, so more looking for a win and place than just the place.

Where as if it was say 150/1 top 10 or 200/1 top 8, I'd probably favour more places as it give the long shot a bit more chance to cash, what's peoples opinions?

NATLOR

W. Hill are best price guaranteed for top 10 and 9 places

Potential Underachiever

NATLOR wrote: »

W. Hill are best price guaranteed for top 10 and 9 places

How does that work? Just been on there and Homa is 70/1 whilst I had him at 100/1, what's the guarantee all about?

NATLOR

Potential Underachiever wrote: »

How does that work? Just been on there and Homa is 70/1 whilst I had him at 100/1, what's the guarantee all about?

Its only the top 10 players in the market

munster87

Potential Underachiever wrote: »

Always the same though isn't it, more places worse prices.

So the question I suppose is would you rather a 50/1 shot paying top 10, or a 66/1 shot paying top 8, I'm never too sure what way to go, probably depends on the length of odds you're dealing with, in the above scenario I'd probably take the better price as the player being backed is obviously decent'ish at that price, so more looking for a win and place than just the place.

Where as if it was say 150/1 top 10 or 200/1 top 8, I'd probably favour more places as it give the long shot a bit more chance to cash, what's peoples opinions?

Depends on the odds I suppose. Fleetwood was 50/1 8 places and 33/1 10 places when I looked. That was too much of a difference for me for the 2 places.

okidoki987

Potential Underachiever wrote: »

So the question I suppose is would you rather a 50/1 shot paying top 10, or a 66/1 shot paying top 8, I'm never too sure what way to go, probably depends on the length of odds you're dealing with, in the above scenario I'd probably take the better price as the player being backed is obviously decent'ish at that price, so more looking for a win and place than just the place.

Where as if it was say 150/1 top 10 or 200/1 top 8, I'd probably favour more places as it give the long shot a bit more chance to cash, what's peoples opinions?

I'd say most people will go the same way as you have called it yourself.
The better the player, the better chance of finishing higher up so take the better price to win it with the lower number of places.
The longer the odds, the extra place(s) would look more attractive.

There's some pretty poor offers from bookies on oddschecker list like BetVictor 6 places and same outright prices as Hills who are 9 places.

munster87

Qatar

Sullivan 25/1
Rai 33/1
Canter 33/1
Harding 45/1

All 7 places e/w

munster87

Going to chance Campillo too at 90/1

zimmermania

Backed the out of form McIlroy to finish in the top 20 at 6/4 as PP has pushed him out from 8/11.He is too good to ignore at that price.

In Qatar George Coetzee at 28/1 has my tenner ew as he does well here PP 7 places.

okidoki987

Backed Finau (25.0) and McIlroy (17.0) E/W 10 places on the exchange.
Think it's McIlroy's time.

NATLOR

Day
Cantlay
Finau
Matsuyama
All e/w

Potential Underachiever

Potential Underachiever wrote: »

I got Max Homa at 100/1e.w (top 7), fairly decent price, playing very well and loves tough courses seemingly.

Win only on the exchange

Finau @36
Cantlay @27
Berger @55
Scheffler @60

All small stakes, all E.W top 10

Kokrak 80/1
Tringale 125/1
Grillo 175/1
Putnam 175/1
Steele 200/1

redzerdrog

okidoki987 wrote: »

Backed Finau (25.0) and McIlroy (17.0) E/W 10 places on the exchange.
Think it's McIlroy's time.

E/W on the exchange? How does that work?

redzerdrog

4pts e/w Cantley @20/1
2pts e/w Fleetwood @45/1
1.5pts e/w kisner @125/1
1.5pts e/w grillo @125/1

okidoki987

redzerdrog wrote: »

E/W on the exchange? How does that work?

Using Betfair exchange as more liquidity and better chance of getting matched.
Every week in the main tournaments, there is e/w betting available with the places listed, mostly 10 places.
It's the same as an e/w bet with a bookie but you can set your own odds (may or may not be matched) and can lay if you want to.

So in the Players, there is a list of available bets on the left.
You will see e/w 10 places, click into this and you will see the players listed with odds which may or may not be of interest or correct but they are the prices other punters are putting into the market.
Click on the player you want, example DJ.
Current odds are, you to back DJ, 11.5 (10.5/1) and you to lay 12.0 (11/1).
So if you wanted to back him 10 places, you would get 10.5/1 to €10 e/w costing €20.
He's 14.0-14.5 to win it outright so you are getting lower odds to win it but better place odds.
Betfair gives you the different outcomes and P&L with each one before you place the bet.
So you back DJ €10 e/w at 11.5.
If he wins it, you win €126, if he comes 2nd to 10th (d/h rules will apply for ties) you win €11 and if he comes outside Top 10, you lose €20.
Laying DJ for same stake, if he wins it, you lose €132, 2nd to 10th you lose €12 and outside Top 10 you win €20.
If you don't like the prices, you can put in your own price you want to get matched at but that may not get matched.
You can also back/lay in running but liquidity not great after tournament starts.
All prices/outcomes exclude commission, that depends on your own rate.

bassy

10 win on viktor hovland at 22/1 got power up to 25/1

redzerdrog

okidoki987 wrote: »

Using Betfair exchange as more liquidity and better chance of getting matched.
Every week in the main tournaments, there is e/w betting available with the places listed, mostly 10 places.
It's the same as an e/w bet with a bookie but you can set your own odds (may or may not be matched) and can lay if you want to.

So in the Players, there is a list of available bets on the left.
You will see e/w 10 places, click into this and you will see the players listed with odds which may or may not be of interest or correct but they are the prices other punters are putting into the market.
Click on the player you want, example DJ.
Current odds are, you to back DJ, 11.5 (10.5/1) and you to lay 12.0 (11/1).
So if you wanted to back him 10 places, you would get 10.5/1 to €10 e/w costing €20.
He's 14.0-14.5 to win it outright so you are getting lower odds to win it but better place odds.
Betfair gives you the different outcomes and P&L with each one before you place the bet.
So you back DJ €10 e/w at 11.5.
If he wins it, you win €126, if he comes 2nd to 10th (d/h rules will apply for ties) you win €11 and if he comes outside Top 10, you lose €20.
Laying DJ for same stake, if he wins it, you lose €132, 2nd to 10th you lose €12 and outside Top 10 you win €20.
If you don't like the prices, you can put in your own price you want to get matched at but that may not get matched.
You can also back/lay in running but liquidity not great after tournament starts.
All prices/outcomes exclude commission, that depends on your own rate.

Thanks for that! I must check it out. Didn't realise they had this on the exchanges

LuckyGent88

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

Unfortunately just the small bit of money came back thru the T6 from Webb after a promising first round from all.

Looking at a few non Americans this week. Last 5 winners from outside the states.

Matt fitz 5 e/w @ 22/1
Frankie Molinari 5 e/w @ 33/1
Christian bezedinhout 2 e/w @ 66/1

Was looking pretty good for a nice pay day last week but just failed off at the end. Still sniffing around so that’s good.

Colin morikawa 5 e/w @20/1. Still feel he is underrated and overpriced.
Hatton 5 e/w @33/1 should plenty of good stuff last week bar the first round shocker.
Adam Scott 3 e/w @ 60/1 that price is just too good to turn down
Kevin Na 2 e/w @ 100/1 came across great on NLU podcast and has had success here

unplayable

i have lost my mind this week

big bet rahm @18 win only PP (data golf and rufus peabody both saying he should be shorter)
reed medium bet @50 on exchange- crazy price on a guy that wins regularly when in contention

tiny bets to trade on below all win only on exchange.

Louis Oosthuizen @100
Justin Rose @190
Kevin Na @150
Rickie Fowler @260
Brendon Todd @230
Carlos Ortiz @240
Ryan Moore @260
Shane Lowry @360
Lucas Glover @790
Adam Long @820

followed zimmer on rory top 20 on PP also.

should be a great few days.

redzerdrog

Tough week in Qatar gone with

2pt e/w levy @66/1
2pt e/w larrazable @90/1

unplayable

amazon web services deal what does it actually mean where are they showing every shot?

okidoki987

Racing Post Golf "guru" Steve Palmer tips
Dustin Johnson 4pts each-way
Hideki Matsuyama 2pts each-way
Cameron Smith 1pt each-way

Players to note:
Andrew Putnam, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Tyrrell Hatton and
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Full article here
https://www.racingpost.com/sport/golf/steve-palmers-players-championship-predictions-best-bets-free-golf-tips/477103

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Backed the out of form McIlroy to finish in the top 20 at 6/4 as PP has pushed him out from 8/11.He is too good to ignore at that price.

In Qatar George Coetzee at 28/1 has my tenner ew as he does well here PP 7 places.

Woke up this morning to see Coetzee 7 under with 3 to play and he finishes bogey bogey bogey playing the course wrong way round,its almost as bad as choking my way home when going well in the captains prize,golf!!! would drive you insane.

NATLOR

Jonny Vegas 200/1, was 3rd last time at the players and 2nd recently at the Puerto Rico open small e/w bet

Potential Underachiever

NATLOR wrote: »

Jonny Vegas 200/1, was 3rd last time at the players and 2nd recently at the Puerto Rico open small e/w bet

The real mccoy 91

Cantlay the main bet this week 20/1

Adding in ancer 70/1
Kisner 125/1
Kirk 125/1

All with 365 8 places

Bill Ponderosa

Sergio
Scott
Frankie

All e/w for interest

redzerdrog

Couple of FRL Darts

Rory 2pts @28/1
Noren 1pt @90/1

bassy

zimmermania wrote: »

Woke up this morning to see Coetzee 7 under with 3 to play and he finishes bogey bogey bogey playing the course wrong way round,its almost as bad as choking my way home when going well in the captains prize,golf!!! would drive you insane.

Sullivan for me at 20/1