Gold Cup 2013

Huntley

Plenty to analyse with the major trials completed.

Flemenstar is a lovely horse but doesn't get close to a Gold Cup. Clearly didn't get the trip in the Lexus and those who think that good ground will see him get the bones of 27f up a hill are clutching at straws to say the least, borderline delusion in reality. Could run and win in the Irish Hennessy, but it would still be futile running him in the big one. Connections are obviously keen on running him in a championship race and he would be running for a place in the Queen Mother if the chosen one gets there safe and sound. I can see the appeal of the Ryanair for him but that wouldn't be a forgone conclusion if the 2011 and 2012 Champion Chasers turn up which looks likely. Anyway, it should be clear to everyone that he can be crossed off the Gold Cup list.

First Lieutenant was comically chastised on here this season and it's idiotic that some are only realising he is a good horse now. However, how so many people are seeing him as the one to take out of the Lexus is a little baffling. Looking at the way he got to Flemenstar after the last he really should have pulled away from the subsequent winner and 4th. Instead both fell into a hole and Sir Des Champs and Tidal Bay closed rapidly. His proximity to Tidal Bay suggests he has improved since the Hennessy, but my gut feeling is that the lesser distance in the Lexus favoured him more than Tidal Bay and that is why they were closer. First Lieutenant is better on a sounder surface but I'm not sure how anyone could find enough in his efforts to suggest he can turn the tide with Bobs Worth. As I said prior to the Lexus, he looks a Ryanair horse to me and his effort there only further confirmed my view. He is a similiar enough mould to Albertas Run (winner of an RSA), ran a gallant 2nd in the RSA last year but is probably best suited by a strong running 2 mile 4 or 5 in my opinion.

Sir Des Champs is being disregarded by many after his two outings this year but he is a very dangerous horse to be discarding for the Gold Cup. He jumped terribly in the Lexus but he still found plenty and ran a satisfactory enough race on the conditions. He really should have been beaten further considering his proximity after the last to the two leaders but I believe he could improve 10lbs on good ground come March. It was only 12 months ago that he was struggling to see off Knockfierna in the Greenmount before she ran out, so I was actually surprised how well he ran in the Lexus. He is the one animal that I think can improve enough to win the big one from this side of the water and anybody writing him off should do so at their peril.

Long Run showed how resilient and tenacious he is when winning the King George. He is a glorified plodder and didn't turn out to be the superstar that many expected but still a very good animal. He is all stamina so in reality Cheltenham should bring the best out of him but I would be disappointed if there wasn't something from the second season chasers to beat him.

Silviniaco Conti is a classy animal and has obviously developed significantly in the last 12 months. After initially planning to keep him fresh he is being touted as coming across for the Irish Hennessy which probably suggests what Ruby and Nicholls think of the Irish bunch. He was given a perfect ride in the Betfair and was allowed to dictate the pace throughout, which I'd highly doubt he will be allowed to do that in the Gold Cup. Personally he just doesn't seem like a strong enough animal to win a gruelling 3m 2½ f contest. A very classy animal in his own right and highly regarded by connections but not one that interests me as of now.

Grands Crus - No.

Captain Chris was outpaced in the King George and stayed on really well in the muck to go down a close second. On that performance you could make the claim that the undulations at Prestbury Park would play to his strengths and he could potentially be a live contender. There is a question mark about him going left handed though and he just doesn't strike me as the winner.

Tidal Bay is a real character and a horse that is very endearing. I have always regarded him as one of those clever horses who does what he wants and not what we want him to do. He is a dour stayer and ran a great race in the Lexus but would be disappointed if a 12 year old could win the Gold Cup.

Bobs Worth is the correct favourite for this contest. He was hard to follow last year but did look extremely impressive when winning the RSA. He followed that performance up with a brilliant win in the Hennessy and certainly looks one that will require a top notch animal to stop him from landing the big one if he gets their in one piece. The trip and conditions will probably be in his favour in the Gold Cup but I'm not sure does he have much improvement in him. His current ability is top notch but I always like something that doesn't show their hand early in the season, which I suspect Bobs Worth has. There may be nothing good enough to surpass him however and his form looks rock solid to date.

My only personally view is that Sir Des Champs has plenty more in him and I would be disappointed if he wasn't a major player in the Gold Cup. The bookies are obviously very scared of him and he is being trained for one race this season by connections who highly rate him. Bobs Worth looks rock solid but I do just like the profile of the French gelding despite him obviously needing to improve.

MoscowFlyer

Sir Des Champs will love getting away from the Irish bogs. He will relish the Gold Cup course at Cheltenham.

Fight between him and Bobsworth. Can't pick a winner.

BQQ

Huntley wrote: »

Captain Chris was outpaced in the King George and stayed on really well in the muck to go down a close second. On that performance you could make the claim that the undulations at Prestbury Park would play to his strengths and he could potentially be a live contender. There is a question mark about him going left handed though and he just doesn't strike me as the winner.

Can you elaborate on this a little. I wasn't aware he had a problem going left handed.

Johner

BQQ wrote: »

Can you elaborate on this a little. I wasn't aware he had a problem going left handed.

Just look at his last two Cheltenham runs.

Anyway Bobs Worth for me, everything points to him. Rock solid form and unbeaten at Cheltenham. Followed home by Sir Des Champs.

Morgans

Having listened to most of the reaction following the Lexus, I think the pretty universal conclusion is that Sir Des Champs is the one to take out of the race (Henderson on the Morning Line, Sean Boyce attheraces, here immediately after the race) he second favourite in most bookies lists. Having backed the horse at 16s after the Jewson last year I hope you are right, but his price has been slightly shortened if anything following the lexus.

Cannot see who disregarded the horse. If he jumps like he did in the Lexus he won win a Gold Cup. If he jumps like he did in the Jewson he will.

tipster

i have backed sir des champ loves cheltenham stays well and will jump better on better ground .i also have first lieutenant backed ew again ground and track will be in his favour and i cant see him out of the first 3 or 4

BQQ

Johner wrote: »

Just look at his last two Cheltenham runs.

Anyway Bobs Worth for me, everything points to him. Rock solid form and unbeaten at Cheltenham. Followed home by Sir Des Champs.

Ok, I remember now about the way he jumps to his right.

But, in fairness, he ran a decent 4th in the ryanair last year despite it and he jumps the same way on right handed courses when he drifts away from the rail (see latter stages of King George).

That said, I've never considered him as a possible winner. I agree that Bob's Worth looks hard to beat.

3ndahalfof6

I will lets yis know who wont win soon, nice write up H.

Morgans

The amount of money Wylie has lost by sticking with Howard Johnson.

That Tidal Bay could win an Arkle. Some amount of talent.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

The amount of money Wylie has lost by sticking with Howard Johnson.

That Tidal Bay could win an Arkle. Some amount of talent.

What about Inglis Drever? Johnson wasn't completely incompetent

Morgans

Some horses were just too talented for him to screw up.

Tidal Bay has been consistent for Nicholls from the get-go. Almost trustworthy. You could have predicted Tidal's Bay run at the Lexus to the yard. It was just a question whether the others would come back. (Johnson did win an Arkle with him)

The only horse of Johnson's that Id give him credit for is Grey Abbey.

Sammo13

Loved that Grey Abbey... his Scottish national and Pillar wins were great.. top rated 169 class act..

Anyway back to the GC... I agree with you Huntley think Bobs Worth and Sir Des are the two to beat, but Silvo Conti is a bit of an unknown when it comes to cheltenham, his haydock win is good form and if he takes to the track he could take some stopping.. If he does appear at the Hennessy then I'll be on him..

SDC needs racing (Ted thought he was carrying condition at xmas, like us all), will prob also go to the Hennessy, but he looks like an animal who will take some beating over the extended trip..

hucklebuck

While the end of the Lexus was very exciting, I was very disappointed by it. For me the ground was the easy side of soft, maybe soft/heavy.

Flemenstar is a smashing horse and didn't see it out and won't at Cheltenham, I think he will win a nice prize over 3 miles but on quicker ground.

First Lieutenant ran better than last year but I would be amazed if he is in the shake up in March, Bobs Worth scooted up the hill in the RSA and First Lieutenant didn't quite get home in the RSA or Lexus and I can't see how he will get the extra 2f in a more competitive race.

Sir Des Champs is the one to take out of the race, he didn't jump at all well and was still bang there and stayed on very well. He was imperious in Cheltenham last year and with a clear round he will stand every chance.

Long Run is a stamina machine and I would hate to see him win another one but he is going to be on the premises coming up the hill.

Silviniaco Conti was very impressive in the Betfair Chase putting Long Run to the sword on soft ground. I think he will stay and he operates well on undulating tracks.

Captain Chris was comically chastised on here this season and it's idiotic that some are only realising he was capable of getting 3 miles or going close in the King George, indeed "dreamland stuff" was mentioned. While there is an opinion that he prefers right handed and he does jump to the right on occasion it is stupid to rule him out on this basis. He had 5 runs at Cheltenham, he won a novice hurdle, his Arkle beating Finians Rainbow and was only 6 lengths behind Riverside Theatre in last years Ryanair. The yard was still under a cloud at the end of last season and I will be keeping a close eye on the Hobbs runners coming to up to March and 20/1 could be a huge price.

Tidal Bay I love this horse, the fact that he came over on plundered the Lexus and will most likely end up in the National says it all for the current crop of Irish stayers save for SDC. I would be surprised if he does not end up in the World Hurdle, with Big Bucks out the stable have a live contender and it would be an easier race for him than the Gold Cup.

Bobs Worth is the deserved favourite for this race on all known form and is improving

Imperial Commander I hope he makes it to the Gold Cup but it doesn't look good, it's been quiet since he was withdrawn from the Haydock Chase. He has been off for a year but goes well fresh, it's a big ask to win a Gold Cup coming back off a year off but if he retains his ability you would never know.

tipster

agree with nearly everything there hucklebuck except first lieutenant will stay no bother.he needs good ground which they should have i know that theyve been surprised at how well hes run on soft and heavy and hes a way better horse on quicker ground

hucklebuck

Tipster, I think it was good ground last year for the RSA. It was a hot day and Bobs Worth pulled away from him the further they went up the hill.

tipster

bobs worth beat him well but i dont think twas stamina beat him just bobs worth is a very very good horse but we"ll see in march.certainly going to be one of the most interesting gold cups for a while anyway.

klairondavis

First Lieutenant was too free for the first circuit last year and the tank was empty after the last as a result. He seems to be settling better this season and the application of cheekpieces seems to have helped him too.

The one I can't get a handle on is Silviniaco Conte. I'm not sure if 3m2 around Cheltenham is going to be his optimum conditions? I think C&D are going to suit Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth and I think one of them will win it.

Colonel Sanders

Slightly off topic but a word on the horse I thought had the potential to be the best staying novice last year.....Last Instalment

Surely asking too much to come back this year and be involved in a Gold Cup but if I owned him I'd be looking for a pipe opener over an inadequate trip next autumn then the Hennessy off 152.

ste2010

You know when I was watching jump boys I got the impression from Davy Russell that he was sure he would have won the race had FL not clocked another horse in the second lap (can't remember which horse it was, but the gates closed on him and looked to be unsettled in the race as a result)
I still think DR wouldn't jump on him if he was available. I haven't looked at any of LI replays in a long time but I can't help but recall feeling he was a 3miler similar to flemenstar, first lieutenant..ie 3 miles and after that nothing...I know I have touted first lieutenant for the GC at the start of the season but after seeing him fade for the 3rd time this season when the staying was the big question I can't see him staying in the first three in the GC. i can see he will be in the mix 2 out as I think a strong pace will suit him But I think he will fade once te second last is jumped

Huntley

hucklebuck wrote: »

Captain Chris was comically chastised on here this season and it's idiotic that some are only realising he was capable of getting 3 miles or going close in the King George, indeed "dreamland stuff" was mentioned.

Don't let what was actually said get in the way of your story hucklebuck.

Huntley wrote: »

He probably needs 10lbs improvement in him to win unless it is a poor race, do you genuinely believe he has that in him on the conditions? Its dreamland stuff to suggest he has realistically isn't it?

Now, what I said was that he would need 10lbs improvement in him to win unless it was a poor race. I said it was dreamland stuff to suggest he had that improvement in him.

Captain Chris had a rating of 162 prior to the King George. He is now rated at 169, an improvement of 7lbs. Long Run was given a rating of 172 for winning.

Guess what hucklebuck, had he improved the 'probable 10lbs' I said he would need to win, he would have won. He didn't. Care to make yourself look anymore foolish?

Furthermore, I never said that Captain Chris wouldn't get three miles. I stated that it was inconclusive whether he stayed a strongly run 3 miles at Grade 1 standard prior to the race. If anyone did feel unsure about whether the horse would stay, I could have understood their reservations based on the evidence.

I complimented you on guessing the first two home may I add, but what you suggested was idiotic of people not realising he could stay 3 miles or go close in the King George wasn't idiotic at all. He had never done anything substantial at the C&D previously.

You stated that First Lieutenant would be a handicapper. The winner of the Neptune, beating the current Champion Hurdler, and second in an RSA behind the Gold Cup favourite would turn into a handicapper. It is actually more incomprehensible when I write it. Idiotic in the extreme.

You should know by now that throwing in a jab wouldn't go unnoticed, and in doing so I've merely shredded another one of your illogical statements. It would be quite comical to bring up our previous debates if you wish, Peddlers being a terrible chaser, Al Ferof too slow for 2 miles, Flemenstar not a Gold Cup horse. For somebody who spends so much time, and money presuming from your little outbursts on here, on the sport your attempt at race reading is close to the poorest I have come across.

hucklebuck wrote: »

Silviniaco Conti was very impressive in the Betfair Chase putting Long Run to the sword on soft ground. I think he will stay and he operates well on undulating tracks.

Operates well on undulating tracks? An interesting take, not merely because he was intentionally kept away from Cheltenham last year for the exact opposite reason that you state. Feel free to enlighten us more with your unsupported ramblings.

Morgans

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Slightly off topic but a word on the horse I thought had the potential to be the best staying novice last year.....Last Instalment

Surely asking too much to come back this year and be involved in a Gold Cup but if I owned him I'd be looking for a pipe opener over an inadequate trip next autumn then the Hennessy off 152.

Philip Fenton gets a lot of good young horse talent.

Colonel Sanders

Headline on Nick Mordin's Irish column this week is "Sir Des should be gold cup favourite"

Slozer

tipster wrote: »

bobs worth beat him well but i dont think twas stamina beat him just bobs worth is a very very good horse but we"ll see in march.certainly going to be one of the most interesting gold cups for a while anyway.

I agree, it makes for a very intersting Gold Cup this year. I like the look of Bob's Worth but I definitely think he needs another run this year before he goes to Cheltenham in March. If he goes straight to the festival, I cannot back him.

I thought Captain Chris was campainged all wrong last year and I would have loved to see him target the Champion Chase, connections thought otherwise and his season went tits up. He is a completely different horse this year and I thought his run in the KG was very impressive. Himself and LR finishing way ahead of some very good markers (Gran Crus, Riverside Theatre).

The KG and the Lexus are normally very good indicators for potential GC winners and by the way they all crossed the line together I dont think anything coming out of the Lexus will have a chance bar Tidal Bay.

Captain Chris at 20/1 is a huge price compaired to 7/1 for Long Run. I can see no reason in the world why this result could not easily be reversed come March.

Silviniaco Conti is unproven at Cheltenham and I would like to see him run in a graded race here before I put my money on him.

Slattsy

I do wonder why Ruby suggested the World Hurdle for Tidal straight after the Lexus.

I think it's one of two things :
He knows SC is simply a far better animal.
Or
He's a greedy **** that wants to have a chance to win both Championship races.

I'd say the former.
But he is a greedy **** nonetheless :-)

Colonel Sanders

Nick Mordin

Fourth placed SIR DES CHAMPS (41) finished strongly after making three significant jumping errors, the last of which two out looked to cost him around two lengths. Seeing that he picked up five or six lengths in the last quarter mile to get beat less than a length it's hard to argue he wouldn't have won with a clean jump at the second last.

In this race and on his seasonal debut Sir Des Champs has shown seemingly bottomless reserves to pull himself back into the race from near impossible positions. It now looks rather clear that he's much better on more testing tracks than the dead flat Leopardstown. . The previous time he ran at Leopardstown he only got home by half a length in a rather weak Grade 2, running quite some way below his best.

The steep uphill finish at Cheltenham clearly suits Sir Des Champs very well. He's won at the Cheltenham Festival the only two times he's run at the course.

It is worth noting that in recent years the Cheltenham Gold Cup seems to be favouring young horses with records like that of Sir Des Champs. Specifically runners aged seven or less that previously ran first or second in a three mile plus Grade 1 chase which had also earned Racing Post ratings higher than 165.

There have been eleven such runners in the Gold Cup since 1996. This is how they've fared;

1996.......Imperial Call....................WON 9-2

1999.......Florida Pearl....................third

2000.......Gloria Victis....................fell

2002.......Best Mate.........................WON 7-2

2005.......Kicking King....................WON 4-1

2006.......War Of Attrition...............WON 15-2

2007.......Kauto Star.........................WON 5-4

...............Exotic Dancer....................second

2008.......Neptune Collonges............third

2011.......Long Run...........................WON 7-2

2012.......Long Run...........................third

These stats and my interpretation of Sir Des Champs' form and race times suggests that he should be a warm favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The 7-1 the bookies are offering about his chances for that race looks way too big.

hucklebuck

Huntley wrote: »

You should know by now that throwing in a jab wouldn't go unnoticed

That's rich coming from the guy who started a post with a jab that you knew wouldn't go unnoticed.

Huntley wrote: »

but what you suggested was idiotic of people not realising he could stay 3 miles or go close in the King George wasn't idiotic at all.

I used your same wording when you were talking about First Lieutenant and my point was people get things wrong and some of us hold our hands up when we get something wrong whereas others are too narcissistic to admit they were wrong ala Grandouet V Zarkandar. Not the first time either you have dragged a thread off topic, "oh I was right when we talked about..." YAWN

Huntley wrote: »

Don't let what was actually said get in the way of your story hucklebuck.

Lol at this, I said:

hucklebuck wrote: »

Nope, can't see him winning any big races and reckon handicaps is where he will end up.

hucklebuck wrote: »

He is rated 160, if he improves a stone he might be considered classy.

And after the Lexus I said I did not think he was capable of a run like that and you continue to drag it up.

Huntley wrote: »

Now, what I said was that he would need 10lbs improvement in him to win unless it was a poor race. I said it was dreamland stuff to suggest he had that improvement in him.

Captain Chris had a rating of 162 prior to the King George. He is now rated at 169, an improvement of 7lbs. Long Run was given a rating of 172 for winning.

I replied with this:

hucklebuck wrote: »

Chris wasn't legless last year either. I know he was a fair way back but yard form is massive and if he puts in a clear round there is no reason why he won't be there.

The other thing to consider is Kauto got a mark of 183 for last year and it's hard to see who can put in a run near that level this year. Cue Card if he gets the trip is capable of a mid 170s and Long Run is capable of this and more but I think he is broken and will struggle to run mid 170s imo.

And this was my reasoning for backing Chris along with the fact that I stated he belted plenty in the Jan 2012 race and I felt the yard was out of form.

Huntley wrote: »

He had never done anything substantial at the C&D previously.

He ran to 165 in the Jan 2012 race even though he belted a fair few fences and the yard was out of sorts.

But I think we are way off topic and anyone who gives a **** can read the whole conversation here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056827950&page=12

Huntley wrote: »

The winner of the Neptune, beating the current Champion Hurdler

Good hurdlers make good chasers now do they?

Huntley wrote: »

Second in an RSA behind the Gold Cup favourite would turn into a handicapper. It is actually more incomprehensible when I write it. Idiotic in the extreme.

I think it's more idiotic to assume that a good run in the RSA means success, most of firsts and seconds in recent years have been bottomed out or injured during or shortly after the race. Pre 2012 winners: Bostons Angel, Weapons Amnesty, Cooldine, Albertas Run, Denman. Pre 2012 runners ups pre 2012 have been Jessies Dream, Burton Port, Horner Woods, Roll Along, Snowy Morning.

Huntley wrote: »

Peddlers being a terrible chaser, Al Ferof too slow for 2 miles, Flemenstar not a Gold Cup horse

Lol @ all the above, Peddlers was very odd last year. I said Flemenstar would win if he stayed. As for Al Ferof, not sure what conversation you are talking about but I did say this in the Champion Chase thread (http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=77500216&postcount=48):

hucklebuck wrote: »

I really don't understand all the money for Al Ferof, Cue Card will finish ahead of him and so will Menorah if he puts in a decent round of jumping.

Huntley wrote: »

For somebody who spends so much time, and money presuming from your little outbursts on here, on the sport your attempt at race reading is close to the poorest I have come across.

Rich coming from the guy that thinks winning a hurdle means a horse will be a top class chaser, that third in a 183 rated King George is not C&D form, that rarely says who he has backed save for the highest rated horse in the King George and Grandouet is better than Zarkandar despite being put in his box three times by the latter. Oh and that rules out the horse that beat the current Champion Chaser when winning his Arkle as he only goes right handed.

Now back to the Gold Cup

Huntley wrote: »

Operates well on undulating tracks? An interesting take, not merely because he was intentionally kept away from Cheltenham last year for the exact opposite reason that you state. Feel free to enlighten us more with your unsupported ramblings.

LOL, you mean unsupported, in the way he won a hurdle race at Chepstow and was 4 1/2 lengths behind Cue Card in a chase at the same track? Or the way he was 5 lengths behind Menorah (1/2 length behind Cue Card) in a hurdle race at Cheltenham?

I am sure you are aware that both track are left handed undulating tracks.

Huntley

hucklebuck wrote: »

others are too narcissistic to admit they were wrong ala Grandouet V Zarkandar.

What do you mean wrong? You do realise that I stated, prior and after the Bula, that I think Grandouet will prove to be a better horse than Zarkandar over the course of the season. I backed Grandouet in that race but wasn't surprised that Zarkandar won, and highlighted before the race that I thought Grandouet was potentially vulnerable. http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=82237504

Whether I am wrong or not will be proved at the end of the season.

hucklebuck wrote: »

Good hurdlers make good chasers now do they?

No, but quality hurdlers that have backed up with quality chase runs don't turn into handicappers. First Lieutenant had run a 2nd to a quality RSA winner when you said he would be a handicapper, it wasn't on the back of his hurdling season. The form was clearly in the book that he was a quality horse, it isn't surprising that somebody with the intelligence of yourself failed to see that.

hucklebuck wrote: »

Rich coming from the guy that thinks winning a hurdle means a horse will be a top class chaser

I don't and never said that.

hucklebuck wrote: »

that third in a 183 rated King George is not C&D form,

Good God. You think that trailing in a 17 length third is solid C&D form? You are comically inept at race reading.

hucklebuck wrote: »

that rarely says who he has backed save for

Incorrect.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056453603

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=77292690

Both are profitable threads as far as I can recall.

Not that it really matters to me what you think, I am pretty assured in my betting without needing to justify it to somebody on the internet who loses the rag everytime their short priced favourite gets turned over.

hucklebuck wrote: »

the highest rated horse in the King George,

Winners are all that matter in this game. It doesn't matter if it is the lowest or highest rated animal, if they win that is all that counts. You would do well to find more winners and you wouldn't be losing money hand over fist every weekend.

When I told you Long Run would win I was correct. When I told you that Captain Chris would need to improve by roughly 10lbs to win, which would be unrealistic, I was also correct.

hucklebuck wrote: »

highest rated horse in the Lexus and

I didn't back anyone in the Lexus.

hucklebuck wrote: »

Grandouet is better than Zarkandar despite being put in his box three times by the latter.

I stated that it would be decided over the course of the season, and I still hold that view. It is very easy to write words aswell, would you be interested in a match bet between the two provided they both line up in the Champion? Obviously it would have to be decided on soon considering their current prices are similiar but that is something I would have no problem obliging should you wish to back up your confidence in Zarkandar like I have done in Grandouet.

hucklebuck wrote: »

rules out the horse that beat the current Champion Chaser when winning his Arkle as he only goes right handed.

I never said he only goes right handed, but there is the argument that he is better right handed.

That isn't the sole reason why I don't particularly like him for the Gold Cup though. I could go into more depth about it but sometimes you can't educate the uneducated, which is certainly the case with you.

hucklebuck wrote: »

I am sure you are aware that both track are left handed undulating tracks.

Firstly, Chepstow is in no way similiar to Cheltenham in terms of gradients. You may aswell be comparing the hill in Cheltenham as the one in Naas. Non - existent comparison.

hucklebuck wrote: »

LOL, you mean unsupported, in the way he won a hurdle race at Chepstow and was 4 1/2 lengths behind Cue Card in a chase at the same track? Or the way he was 5 lengths behind Menorah (1/2 length behind Cue Card) in a hurdle race at Cheltenham?

Secondly, 1 win out of 3 at the tracks you mentioned isn't a solid argument that he acts well on undulating tracks. Obviously there is other factors to consider but it is quite comical that the sole reason he was kept away from Cheltenham last year was the polar opposite to what you said he was good at.

The crux of the matter is that you spend plenty of time talking and watching races but really don't have a clue. Apart from your King George prediction, I actually cannot think of one piece of information or analysis you have given in the last twelve months which has been beneficial to anyone. You wouldn't look out of fashion with the influx of posters around March, and that isn't an exaggeration in the slightest.

hucklebuck

Huntley wrote: »

What do you mean wrong? You do realise that I stated, prior and after the Bula, that I think Grandouet will prove to be a better horse than Zarkandar over the course of the season. I backed Grandouet in that race but wasn't surprised that Zarkandar won, and highlighted before the race that I thought Grandouet was potentially vulnerable. http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=82237504

Whether I am wrong or not will be proved at the end of the season.

You came up with some fairly lame excuses for Zarkandar being three nil up.

Huntley wrote: »

No, but quality hurdlers that have backed up with quality chase runs don't turn into handicappers. First Lieutenant had run a 2nd to a quality RSA winner when you said he would be a handicapper, it wasn't on the back of his hurdling season. The form was clearly in the book that he was a quality horse, it isn't surprising that somebody with the intelligence of yourself failed to see that.

Lol, always with the insults, good job it's water of a ducks back, you dish them out ten a penny and I couldn't give a ****.
You clearly don't have the intelligence to see the RSA leaves a mark on horses.

Huntley wrote: »

Good God. You think that trailing in a 17 length third is solid C&D form? You are comically inept at race reading.

As previously stated he belted fences didn't travel and the yard was out of form. So you discount all these factors yet make excuse after excuse for Grandouet? As for race reading if you look at the bare form you can miss plenty.

Maybe you could teach the BHA handicapper something, ignore mistakes in races! He left Long Run at 172 for his run in the King George cause he hit two fences towards the end of the race, if only he had you as his advisor

Huntley wrote: »

Not that it really matters to me what you think, I am pretty assured in my betting without needing to justify it to somebody on the internet who loses the rag everytime their short priced favourite gets turned over.

Lol, so what if I vent a bit? For the most part I look for value in a race. As you can see from my log, still gutted Go Native died but as previously stated I have For Non Stop for the Ryanair. Shorties all right :rolleyes:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056447986&page=2

Huntley wrote: »

Winners are all that matter in this game. It doesn't matter if it is the lowest or highest rated animal, if they win that is all that counts. You would do well to find more winners and you wouldn't be losing money hand over fist every weekend.

As previously stated I look for bigger priced horses that have a decent shout, you get the same money from a 2/1 winner as you would from a placed horse at 16/1 or higher depending on the ew terms, so winners aren't all that matter.

Huntley wrote: »

When I told you Long Run would win I was correct. When I told you that Captain Chris would need to improve by roughly 10lbs to win, which would be unrealistic, I was also correct.

Unusual that you would say a 10lb improvement "dreamland stuff", what would that make his actual 7lb improvement out of interest?

Huntley wrote: »

I stated that it would be decided over the course of the season, and I still hold that view. It is very easy to write words aswell, would you be interested in a match bet between the two provided they both line up in the Champion? Obviously it would have to be decided on soon considering their current prices are similiar but that is something I would have no problem obliging should you wish to back up your confidence in Zarkandar like I have done in Grandouet.

Why would I bother with a match bet when I can back Zarkandar with a bookie at 7/1? Not sure what you mean "back up your confidence like I have", I have been talking about Zarkandar as a live Champion Hurdler contender since September 11 and have been backing him in all his races since.

Huntley wrote: »

I never said he only goes right handed, but there is the argument that he is better right handed.

That isn't the sole reason why I don't particularly like him for the Gold Cup though. I could go into more depth about it but sometimes you can't educate the uneducated, which is certainly the case with you.

LOL more insults, it's also funny the way you think that to educate is to agree with you. I think I will call you google as you think you are right about everything.

Huntley wrote: »

Firstly, Chepstow is in no way similiar to Cheltenham in terms of gradients. You may aswell be comparing the hill in Cheltenham as the one in Naas. Non - existent comparison.

Secondly, 1 win out of 3 at the tracks you mentioned isn't a solid argument that he acts well on undulating tracks. Obviously there is other factors to consider but it is quite comical that the sole reason he was kept away from Cheltenham last year was the polar opposite to what you said he was good at.

It's the closest example to Cheltenham that he has raced at, I think being that close to Menorah and Cue Card conceding 4lbs is a decent yardstick for his ability to race at Cheltenham, for me the only issue is will he get the trip.

Do you have anything to back up this is the sole reason he was kept away? Maybe he needs at least month off between races, it appears that way looking at his campaign. He ran the Reynoldstown in mid February so that could be why they bipassed Cheltenham.

Huntley wrote: »

"Insert random insults here"

FYP

Dunno about you but I fancy getting back on topic.

Huntley

hucklebuck wrote: »

You came up with some fairly lame excuses for Zarkandar being three nil up.

Lame excuses in your opinion. I get things wrong, and may do with Gandouet, but history and evidence shows that my opinion is far more worthwhile than yours. This thread makes interesting reading in hindsight. http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056458266

hucklebuck wrote: »

You clearly don't have the intelligence to see the RSA leaves a mark on horses.

It can have a lasting effect on horses, saying it definitively does is totally incorrect. You are essentially admitting that despite his top class effort in the RSA you just assumed that it would affect First Lieutenant and he would be running in handicaps as a result. Really poor judgement on your part, once again.

hucklebuck wrote: »

As previously stated he belted fences didn't travel and the yard was out of form. So you discount all these factors

I didn't discount these factors. Your attempt at putting words in my mouth is getting tedious.

I said Captain Chris didn't have any solid form at Grade 1 standard over 3 miles prior to the King George this year. His 17 length third last year, finishing ahead of a legless Nacarat and another questionable stayer in Somersby isn't a solid yardstick. You can take account of the excuses but they don't change the facts, he may have run a credible race but it wasn't conclusive to him being a top class stayer.

hucklebuck wrote: »

yet make excuse after excuse for Grandouet?

Not sure the relevance of Grandouet. He has beaten multiple Grade 1 winners over 2 miles and has proven to be a top class horse. Captain Chris has shown plenty of quality, but he didn't have any substantial form at Grade 1 standard over 3 miles prior to the King George.

Your ability to compare like with like is abysmally shít. My excuses for Grandouet are in no way comparable with the reservations people had about Captain Chris prior to the King George.

hucklebuck wrote: »

As for race reading if you look at the bare form you can miss plenty.

Yes, which is why I am always flexible when taking account of all aspects of a race, and in turn may discard certain excuses and opinions. (frequently tend to be yours)

hucklebuck wrote: »

Lol, so what if I vent a bit?

It shows that you are too emotionally attached to your bets.

hucklebuck wrote: »

For the most part I look for value in a race. As you can see from my log, still gutted Go Native died but as previously stated I have For Non Stop for the Ryanair. Shorties all right :rolleyes:

Anybody can pick a price. Just because you have highlighted two large priced animals doesn't mean you have the ability to frequently spot value. Look at the second comment on this thread.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056458266

The fact I had 25/1 on Sir Des Champs for the RSA meant nothing as he ended up going for the Jewson. Your voucher on For Non Stop will be just as worthless* as he won't be winning the Ryanair.

*Unless you aim to trade out for pennies. Probably just as worthless.

hucklebuck wrote: »

As previously stated I look for bigger priced horses that have a decent shout, you get the same money from a 2/1 winner as you would from a placed horse at 16/1 or higher depending on the ew terms, so winners aren't all that matter.

There is some logic behind your view that winners aren't everything but it would require somebody far more astute than yourself to consistently pick placed horses at large prices.

hucklebuck wrote: »

Unusual that you would say a 10lb improvement "dreamland stuff", what would that make his actual 7lb improvement out of interest?

What is unusual about me saying that? You do realise that he didn't improve 10lbs and me saying it was dreamland stuff to suggest he could was compounded by his performance?

hucklebuck wrote: »

what would that make his actual 7lb improvement out of interest?

If you asked me prior to the race I would have said he would have 5lbs improvement in him at best on the conditions. A 7lbs improvement would have surprised me, as it did, but I thought it was unfeasible for him to improve by 10lbs, which it was.

You seem to think that my judgement of Captain Chris pre King George was wrong, it wasn't. He needed to improve 10lbs to win. I said that would be totally unrealistic. It was and he didn't win. Not difficult to understand really.

hucklebuck wrote: »

Why would I bother with a match bet when I can back Zarkandar with a bookie at 7/1?

Do you understand the concept of match betting? Zarkandar is 7/1 to win the Champion Hurdle, an even money match bet would only be based on him beating Grandouet. If you wanted a price on that from a bookie you would get 5/6 either or at best, it should probably be 8/11 Zarkandar considering he has beat him three times already.

You clearly think that Zarkandar is the better animal and can surely see how even money is great value considering the excuses for Grandouet previously being held by him are "lame". I'm not in the habit of being charitable but I will make an exception for you, and with you being such a shrewd punter and all should clearly see the value in my offer.

hucklebuck wrote: »

LOL more insults, it's also funny the way you think that to educate is to agree with you. I think I will call you google as you think you are right about everything.

You actually reminded me of Ste using a quite humorous comment last year, stating that I was like a crocodile stalking naive backpackers as they came closer to my habitat. I like Ste.

Anyway, I'm not always right and don't claim to be. However, you are frequently wrong in your analysis and judgement of races. I'm not trying to insult you either, just stating the reality.

I'm prepared to leave it there aswell and PM me if you would like to take up my offer of a match bet, I would only be too obliging to accommodate you in this regard.

Nulty

Jesus, this thread makes me want to go to the pub. I suggest you do too.

Colonel Sanders

Nulty wrote: »

Jesus, this thread makes me want to go to the pub. I suggest you do too.

Damn you rock 'em sock 'em robots, can't we all just get along!

hucklebuck

Huntley my last comment on the match bet is I am going to leave it, thanks for the offer. I would prefer to tie my money up at 7's. Last off topic is for the Champion I stated before the Fighting Fifth I thought the first three would filled by Zarkandar, HF and Grandouet, the only thing that has changed for me is Darlan will have a big hand in it too.

Would love to head to the pub Nulty but I am minding my 1 year old niece, its amazing how thirsty a few hours of poxy nursery rhymes can make you.

Back on topic, does anyone know the story with Last Instalment?

Colonel Sanders

hucklebuck wrote: »

Back on topic, does anyone know the story with Last Instalment?

The Sportinglife had a story that Fenton hoped to have him back in January but that's the last I heard

Arctic89

I'll prob leave making a firm selection on this until the week before Cheltenham but there's one thing I'd like to get off my chest for now.

Almost all of the people saying "the one to take out" of the Lexus is Sir Des Champs. While this is true to a degree,almost everyone is assuming a good round of jumping at Cheltenham. This to me seems stupid. The horse has now jumped awfully in his last 3 races and bar last year's Jewson this has been a trademark of the horse.

Taking this into account, it's unlikely he'll get around a fast paced Gold Cup without some sort of a mistake. I'd be absolutely shocked if a horse can make a mistake like he's been making and go on to win.

Now I'm not ruling him out,a clean round of jumping and he's bang there but I really think its something to take into account before you go punting him for the Gold Cup.

Colonel Sanders

From the Racingpost

Cheltenham Gold Cup entry for Flemenstar

FLEMENSTAR has been entered for the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup, although a decision about which Grade 1 event the Peter Casey-trained eight-year-old will contest at the Festival will be delayed until after he runs in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown on February 9.

Hulk Hands

Really can't have all this hype about SDC. He is a best priced 13/2. The other Gigginstown horse First Leuitenant, is 14's. What has SDC done to deserve being half the price of FL?

His Jewson win was impressive. Is it any better form than FL's second in the RSA? Not at all for me. Remember, Gigginstown had the choice of sending either one of these to either the RSA or Jewson last year. They chose the more prestigous and richer race for FL because they believed him better. I'm not sure that thinking has changed.

Whatever about jumping (part of the game), FL beat SDC the last day. People say that SDC will improve for Cheltenham. Well FL figures to just as much. He won the Neptune two years ago, and after running badly in Ireland all year, had Bob's Worth all out when second in the RSA. He clearly loves Cheltenham, and i'd be just as sure of him improving as SDC.

I probably won't be backing either, because I think Bob's Worth is fairly bombproof at this stage. But SDC being less than half the price of FL is ridiculous, even taking into account the chance that FL mighn't turn up

Morgans

Hulk Hands wrote: »

They chose the more prestigous and richer race for FL because they believed him better.

I can see FL running a big big race in the Gold Cup, but dont know if this is true.

Think Sir Des Champs was always more of a Jewson type and Im not sure Willie is as in love with the RSA as he once was.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

I can see FL running a big big race in the Gold Cup, but dont know if this is true.

Think Sir Des Champs was always more of a Jewson type and Im not sure Willie is as in love with the RSA as he once was.

Actually it was common knowledge at the time (or at least freely available) that WPM wanted to run Sir Des Champ in the RSA but Mouse dug his heels in and Gigginstown didn't want to run both in the same and I think it was decided that a SDC was a more likely Jewson type than FL

prettyboy81

What about a tricast of Gigginstown horses, will Last Instalment make it to Cheltenham this year???

He would want to get out of his horse box & onto the track soon, hopefully Fenton has him in good order.

prettyboy81

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Actually it was common knowledge at the time (or at least freely available) that WPM wanted to run Sir Des Champ in the RSA but Mouse dug his heels in and Gigginstown didn't want to run both in the same and I think it was decided that a SDC was a more likely Jewson type than FL

Really didn't know that, I thought it was WPM not wanting SDC running in a gruelling RSA Chase & thinking of future races for the horse.

Looking back at the Jewson race, SDC was so impressive but the form of those behind him doesn't really stand up this year. Maybe, except Champion Court in the King George or maybe not depending on how you judge his performance in that race.

Morgans

Jaysus missed that. Just as well too. Thought keeping him away from 3m throughout the year and they way he avoided staying distances with horses like Missed That before.

Mouse is very good at getting his horses right for Cheltenham. Think there is a little bit of juice in the price.

Huntley

I think it is pretty clear why Sir Des Champs is such a low price. He is obviously being trained with one race in mind and has plenty of scope to improve on what he has shown to date, and the bookies and everyone else are aware of this. First Lieutenant has run some great races and is a top class horse but I have seen very little to suggest that he could improve enough to turn the form with Bobs Worth. A line through Tidal Bay has him improving on his Hennessy effort but I firmly believe that was predominantly down to the drop in the distance.

I'm actually surprised that Dick and others said he was the one to take out of the Lexus. He ran a gallant race but I don't see the angle whatsoever about him improving enough to win the Gold Cup if the current market leaders turn up. Still think he would be best suited by the Ryanair.

Hulk Hands

I think the only thing holding his price up is people thinking he will never reverse form with Bob's Worth. Take Bob's Worth out and I honestly would have him close enough to favouritism. The RSA and Hennessy look to be the strongest formlines out there. He could be a very good place bet come the day

Huntley

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I think the only thing holding his price up is people thinking he will never reverse form with Bob's Worth. Take Bob's Worth out and I honestly would have him close enough to favouritism. The RSA and Hennessy look to be the strongest formlines out there. He could be a very good place bet come the day

I'm a big advocate of the horses ability when he is right but it isn't just thinking he can't turn the form around, he hasn't shown me anything to suggest he can. I also think that 3 miles is probably his optimum distance. I would agree that he does have place claims but that is about as far as I would put my confidence in him, he looks well held to me personally on what he has done to date.

I like Sir Des Champs because he has run two credible races on unsuitable conditions, and although he needs to improve he has plenty of scope to do so. First Lieutenant needs to improve to win and I don't think he has much more in him than what he has shown.

ste2010

A great performance from FL in Leopardstown but the extra distance and the hill will take the wind out him in march..
There are 3 things in my mind which you need to win a gold cup
Speed
Near perfect jumping
Major Staying ability.
FL has the first 2, he's proven time and time again that once he's off the bridle there are limitations to his staying ability in comparison to others..we seen this in the RSA, down royal, the Hennessy and the Lexus..I don't think there is anymore proof required that highlights staying is not his best trait.
SDC, Bobs Worth, the giant bolster, tidal bay, long run have all of these traits..
Take them off the bridle in the back straight they will stay like an Xmas hit from East 17..
If FL is off the bridle that far out there's not a hope in winning the GC.
Given how he loves Cheltenham I know they will run him in this race but if I was O'Leary I'd be holding him back for the 3m in Aintree or the Guinness gold cup in punchestown.

Hulk Hands

ste2010 wrote: »

A great performance from FL in Leopardstown but the extra distance and the hill will take the wind out him in march..
There are 3 things in my mind which you need to win a gold cup
Speed
Near perfect jumping
Major Staying ability.
FL has the first 2, he's proven time and time again that once he's off the bridle there are limitations to his staying ability in comparison to others..we seen this in the RSA, down royal, the Hennessy and the Lexus..I don't think there is anymore proof required that highlights staying is not his best trait.
SDC, Bobs Worth, the giant bolster, tidal bay, long run have all of these traits..
Take them off the bridle in the back straight they will stay like an Xmas hit from East 17..
If FL is off the bridle that far out there's not a hope in winning the GC.
Given how he loves Cheltenham I know they will run him in this race but if I was O'Leary I'd be holding him back for the 3m in Aintree or the Guinness gold cup in punchestown.

No they don't. Only Bobs Worth has all 3 of those traits and it's even at a push to say he has speed. FL nearly stayed out 3 1/4 miles in a Hennessy and will encounter much better ground when attempting to do so in March

ste2010

Hulk Hands wrote: »

No they don't. Only Bobs Worth has all 3 of those traits and it's even at a push to say he has speed. FL nearly stayed out 3 1/4 miles in a Hennessy and will encounter much better ground when attempting to do so in March

Of course they do..they wouldn't be in the gold cup otherwise..my reference to speed is there cruising speed not speed off the bridle..long run is a dodgy jumper which is a fair point but he somehow gets on with it. And has a GC to his name.
Watch every race since the RSA last year and what happens to FL when he's off the bridle..it's going to be alot further out he'll be off the bridle come march so he'll have to find it somewhere.
Don't get me wrong I touted him for the GC in sept on this very forum but I know when it's time to acknowledge all the evidence put in front of me. His last 4 races he's fell down in the stamina dept. so unless he finds it from somewhere between now and march I don't think he has a chance.

Slattsy

Sir Des Champs is a bit of a dodgy jumper.

ste2010

Slattsy wrote: »

Sir Des Champs is a bit of a dodgy jumper.

The word near perfect was used ...

Slattsy

ste2010 wrote: »

The word near perfect was used ...

I wouldn't give him that much credit either :-)

Hulk Hands

ste2010 wrote: »

The word near perfect was used ...

Yep and he's far from near perfect, along with Long Run, and even Tidal Bay on occasion. The Giant Bolster doesn't have Speed and Long Runs speed is questionable.