US should agree to Iran's right to Peaceful Nuke Tech in 2013 and give them the 20% U

Be like Nutella

It's Not in Iran's Interest to Build a Nuclear Bomb

Please support you points I'm sick of the 'Iran is evil and is going for the bomb' crap you hear so often.

Firstly the contents of this short piece by Amanpour greatly effected my position on the Iran nuke thing. I suggest you watch it before launching into an Iran bashing session.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kP11iU6cPfQ

If the P5+1 agree to Iran's NPT right to peaceful nuke tech in 2013 AND offer Iran the few rods they need for their medical isotope producing research reactor which produces isotopes for about 1 million cancer patients then Iran will agree NOT to enrich to 20% and agree to all safeguard measures similar to all other NPT members.

Not only that but will agree to what is known as 'the additional protocols' and in fact beyond these 'additional protocol' to absolutely assure the IAEA and the P5+1 that Iran is not going for a breakout Nuke Weapon capability... which is of course the main stated worry of all interested nations.

I personally believe that Iran is not currently on a trajectory towards nuclear weapons. I think the evidence is overwhelming for this position. Why would they offer to agree to IAEA 'Safeguard' and 'Additional Protocols' allowing the IAEA access to 'everything' IF the international community agrees to its NPT membership and privileges i.e. the full right to develop peaceful nuke tech and produce medical isotopes in their research reactor EVEN TO THE POINT of accepting foreign RODS in order to absolutely assure the international community that Iran is never capable of a breakout nuke program i.e. enriching from 20-90% if it so decided. Why would they offer this on a plate?

There was definitely a time when there was some evidence for Iran's intention to research 'towards' a potential nuke weapon program - in the past, many years ago... but those efforts have stopped and all recent signs and indicators coming from Iran points towards 'not going for the bomb' at all. They want to be treated as equals among other NPT nations and they want to do a comprehensive deal with the IAEA and P5+1 which will assure THEM of the right to do nuke research as they want for medical isotopes and have the IAEA inspect everything as they please IF everyone agrees to respect Iran's right to develop nuke technology to the fullest capacity.

Sanctions and assassinations and cyber warfare needs to stop. There is no trust and rightfully so with the way the West has treated Iran in this situation. People need to sit down and start from a level playing field and hard bargain for massive IAEA access to ALL SITES in return for Iran's agreement not to go to 20% EVER... and simply provide them with the rods they need for the Tehran research reactor. Put in place a system which makes it impossible to divert enrichment towards a breakout program... just like other NPT members with 'Safeguard'.

The whole thing has always been political and about other issues than Nuke tech.. as we all know. The IAEA was compromised and became a political tool and that needs to be rectified and adjusted. The important thing here is for Iran to NOT GET TO AN EASY BREAKOUT NUKE WEAPON CAPABILITY POINT and that can be achieved.

Iranian Ambassador: It's Not in Iran's Interest to Build a Nuclear Bomb

Seyed Hossein Mousavian: IAEA has a political agenda that goes beyond its mandate to inspect

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pP2WBP5Yv6s

Well what do yee think? Is there a good reason NOT to sit down and do a deal which safeguards Iran's breakout capability when they have offered so much including the 'additional Protocols'? Should the cyber warfare and assassinations and sanctions stop or not? At the end of the day we want the IAEA to have access to everything - Iran has offered a path to that access so why is the US not taking that path? The IAEA have carried out 4000 inspections in the last 10 years.
________________________________________________________________


From:

http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/ten-reasons-iran-doesnt-want-the-bomb-7802


Why Iran is not after a nuclear bomb:


1. Religious Obligations: Besides an international commitment to Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has religious obligations against nuclear weapons. Based on the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s religious edict or fatwa, the use of nuclear weapons and all other types of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) is forbidden or haram—constituting a sin, while being useless, costly, harmful and a serious threat to humanity. Iran’s authorities were informed about this religious view in 1995, eight years prior to Iran’s enrichment program became known to the West. Leaving no room for discrepancy, all Muslim Shia grand ayatollahs have issued the same religious fatwa.
Iran’s stance against weapons of mass destruction, which is far from new, has been put to the test. During the Iran-Iraq war, Saddam Hussein ordered chemical weapons to be used against Iran in the 1980s, resulting in 100,000 Iranian soldiers and civilians being killed or injured. Iran did not retaliate in kind primarily because Imam Ruhollah Khomeini was against the use of weapons of mass destruction based on religious beliefs.

2. No Long-Term Advantage: Based on Iranian assessments, the possession of nuclear weapons would provide only a short-term regional advantage that would turn into a longer-term vulnerability. It would trigger a regional nuclear arms race, bringing Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia into the fold sooner or later.

3. Technology Choices: The technical configurations Iran has chosen for its nuclear program demonstrate a preference for a robust enrichment capability rather than for a rapid nuclear weapons breakout capability. Iran’s development program is focused on next-generation nuclear technologies, rather than mass production or maximum installation of centrifuges. There are more advantageous configurations Iran could implement if it was determined to acquire weapons in the near term.
Iran has shown no urgency to advance its nuclear dual-use efforts. Even the activities detailed in the November 2011 International Atomic Energy Agency report are not directed at any specific nuclear weaponization. According to Robert Kelly, an American top nuclear expert and the former International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspector, the report was misleading and aimed to bolster hardliners “by taking information and feeding it as raw meat to people who want to move forward with war.”


4. Isolation: Iran recognizes that by becoming a nuclear weapons state, it will compel Russia and China to join the United States and implement devastating sanctions that would paralyze the Iranian economy.
Iran recognizes that becoming a nuclear weapons state would give the Israelis ample ammunition to rally the United States and the international community on a perceived existential threat to its existence for creating another war in the Middle East.



5. Aspirations: Iran’s ultimate strategy is to be a modern nation, fully capable of competing with the West in terms of advanced technologies. The majority of Iran’s prominent politicians believe that possessing nuclear weapons would be an obstacle in the long-term for Iran’s access to vast technological cooperation with developed countries. They do not want to see Iran come under the kind of extreme international isolation levied against North Korea.

6. Goodwill: During negotiations from 2003 to 2005, with Iran and France, Germany, and the UK (the EU-3), Iran submitted proposals which included a declaration to cap enrichment at 5 percent; to export all low-enriched uranium or fabricate it into fuel rods; to commit to an additional protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement and subsidiary arrangements to the agreement, which would provide maximum transparency; to allow the IAEA to make snap inspections of undeclared facilities; and to ship its enriched uranium to another country for fabrication into fuel rods for Tehran Research Reactor. Similarly, Iran welcomed the Russian step-by-step proposal in the summer of 2011, which addressed all the West’s concerns about Iran’s nuclear activities.
These offers were intended to ensure that no enriched uranium would be diverted to a nuclear weapons program in the future. That’s why the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman recently said: “Iran, in order to prove its goodwill, has even gone beyond the commitments enumerated in the agency’s regulations.” But the United States and EU still rejected the offer.


7. No Stockpile: Accusations levied against Iran for stockpiling enriched uranium to build nuclear weapon are misleading, since Iran requires 27 tons of uranium enriched at 3.5 percent level annually to provide fuel for its only nuclear power plant in Bushehr. Up to now, Iran has produced about 7 tons and needs an additional 20 tons.

8. Enrichment Offers: The West’s biggest concern and therefore highest priority in nuclear talks have centered on Iran’s 20 percent enriched uranium. First in February 2010 and for the second time in September 2011, Iran proposed to stop its 20 percent enrichment in return for fuel rods—and once again the West declined. At a meeting between EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton and Iran’s leading nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili on September 19, Iran once again offered to suspend its enrichment of uranium to 20 percent, provided proportionate reciprocation would be taken by P5+1. "If they give us the 20 percent [enriched] fuel, we will immediately halt 20 percent [enrichment]," Ahmadinejad said in an interview with Iranian state-run television. But Europe responded to his goodwill by placing more sanctions.


9. Deterrence: A major accusation levied against Iran is that once it acquires nuclear weapons, it will use it against the United States and Israel. This makes no rational sense, since any provocation by Iran against two states that possess thousands and hundreds of nuclear weapons respectively would result in Iran’s total annihilation. Iran has publically acknowledged this fact.


10. Forget Regime Change: The view of some U.S. politicians is that Iran’s motive for seeking nuclear weapons is nuclear deterrence—to ensure Washington would not attack it at will, instigate regime change or reach its objectives. If this concern is accurate, then Iran’s nuclear weapons could be used to prevent war—a positive outcome. But this concern relies on the wrong premise, as Iran has not aimed to acquire nuclear weapons in the face of a concerted effort by the United States and the West to engineer regime change in Tehran, including the use of war. During eight years of Iraqi aggression against Iran, the United States and the West did their utmost to support the aggressor and yet failed to bring defeat to Iran. Paradoxically for some, Iran without nuclear weapons has become more powerful year after year in the past 34 years, stymying Western efforts to bring about the collapse of the regime. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Israeli positions in the region have declined despite the thousands of nuclear weapons between them.

donvito99

There was definitely a time when there was some evidence for Iran's intention to research 'towards' a potential nuke weapon program

What's stopping them from doing so in the future, "many years" from now as you phrased, beyond this short term rouse?

Be like Nutella

what WOULD stop them is a fully comprehensive deal whereby they accept foreign 20% rods for the Tehran reactor.

- 'additional protocol and beyond' - level access by the IAEA to all sites necessary which they have offered twice already.

- gradual de-escalation of aggressive rhetoric between Iran + Israel + US over Iran's nuke ambitions and possible pre-emptive hardened site strikes (which are a load of crap anyway and never really made any sense to the real trigger pullers in intelligence and military and was just eaten up by a drama addicted public like you n me)

You can't go on treating a nation as the same character forever.... things change. Leadership changes... ambitions change... the national character changes. How you deal with a country has to change as well... but only on the merit of agreements made.

Treat Iran as a 'first class' nation as they say... on equal footing ... with the same rights to develop 'peaceful' nuke tech as other NPT members and they will extend to us in the west all access beyond what we have asked for so far.

Wanting regime change or a different Iran than we see is not and cannot be the same conversation as the IAEA one. Bullying does not work against Iran... any deal reached will not have been as a result of sanctions even IF Iran allows us to think that to save face in order to get what IT wants on ITS own time scale.

Straightforward rational deal making is going to solve this thing. Nothing else. Treat Iran like a rational player and it will act like one.

Act Irrationally towards it with games, illegal assassinations, politicized IAEA meddling, Cyber attacks, Bullsh1t and posturing and gamesmanship and Israeli bullsh1t saber rattling and of course it will play back.

Give Iran the freedom to be Iran and it will pay you back with order and predictability and solid enforceable agreements.

Jonny7

Nutella

If Iran were interested in peaceful nuclear tech they would be fully open and transparent with the IAEA - they aren't. This is part of the NPT they flout, of which they are a signatory.

They could have made deals with the Russians to process up to 20% enrichment (which is very controversial because it's 90% of the way to weapons grade)

They have had plenty of opportunity to make deals with the EU and concerned nations.

There is a ton of information from about 2003 on past discrepancies uncovered by various sources, whilst some of it is typical US and Israeli propaganda, it does show the intention to research weaponisation tech.

Couple this with Iran's obsession with medical isotopes, the furious enrichment at sites like Fordo (a previously secret site), and it's constant cat and mouse delaying tactics with the world is making everyone, including the Russians, edgy and unnerved.

No one wants a regional nuclear arms race. Everyone is aware of the history and virtriol between US/Israel and Iran herself.. but the ball is in Iran's court, and Obama has openly stated that Iran has a right to peaceful nuclear power.

The responsibility is on Iran to show that... but they are playing real politik with it, and the Iranian people and its economy are the ones suffering.

Be like Nutella

It all sounds good but I don't believe it has happened the way you say. I believe that the US has abused the IAEA to the point of even using it to identify scientists which were subsequently assassinated but that's a whole separate argument so we'll put that aside.

Brazil offered Iran a great deal involving 20% rods and Iran was en route to accepting it when the US pulled the deal off the table so deals have been scuttled by both sides, not just Iran.

The entire process of trying to come to a deal with Iran has not been as innocent or straight forward as you make out by all parties concerned. The effect of changing US administrations has played a huge part. The incredibly counter productive saber rattling of a psychotically unpredictable Israel has had a huge effect and Iran has reacted to all of this as would any nation under such a barrage of rhetoric and mind games and economic punishment.

The sanctions make absolutely no sense. They absolutely do not stop Iran from continuing to develop nuclear technology and only create anti-us sentiment within Iran itself which is counter productive to destabilizing that regime and has the effect of making Iran more and more stubborn when it comes to the bureaucracy of the IAEA 'safeguard' instruments... i.e. playing to the letter of the law and slowing down the entire process of debate and deal making.

This is the picture so far:

Iran is NOT CONSIDERED TO BE ACTIVELY GOING FOR THE BOMB BY ALMOST ALL EXPERTS AT THIS POINT.

Yet, Iranian scientists have been illegally assassinated with magnetic car bombs while sitting in traffic.

Their facilities have been subject to cyber warfare attacks by the US/Israel which literally broke every law in the book and has severely damaged Siemens as a result... using computer automated machine codes garnered illegally to mount a cyber attack on machines and electrical equipment in an attempt to mess with the centrifuge cascades in Iranian sites... that supposed to be rational deal making? How would you react? and all this within a 'NO EVIDENCE FOR IRAN HAVING EVEN DECIDED TO GO FOR THE BOMB' scenario.

You have to remember all the damage the US/UK has done to Iran through the last century.... installing puppet dictators, exploiting her natural resources, having no regard for the effect of illegal foreign policy on Iranian people who the US pretends now to care so much about. Come on man wake up this thing is a game. Iran and Israel and the US and the IAEA have all been playing it.

You know yourself that the US arranged the first reactor for Iran in the 'Atoms for Peace' Program when it suited the US.

The hypocrisy is mental. You can't defend the US position when you take into account the simple fact that most respected subject experts including US generals and Retired Israeli Mossad and academics all over the place agree at this point that IRAN IS NOT GOING FOR THE BOMB and that any previous evidence for such endeavors were from a previous time not applicable under the current circumstances.]

I don't like the Iranian regime, I don't like the system of theocratic military leadership. I don't like the level of 'lack' of freedom of speech that exists in Iran and I don't like the rhetoric towards Israel.

But you can't come to the table asking for massive foreign access to all scientific sites in a sovereign nation who has so much reason to hate and distrust the west that it's laughable and then kill its scientists and attack its facilities and then punish its population whom you say you care about by making their lives poorer.... and then complain when they play games back at you!!!!! ?? come on it's all about regional influence and political strategy... forget the IAEA or whether you think Iran has to the right to peaceful nuke tech (power/medical)... if you're not going to treat them as equals and come to the table with a complete reboot of IAEA relations then you have nobody to blame but yourselves.... UNLESS you have evidence which even points towards Iran's CURRENT ambitions towards developing a BREAKOUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITY.... which Iran is so very very far from that it is also laughable. Do you know what you actually need to reach that point? Do you know what you risk in even attempting to do that? There is no rational reason now for Iran going for the bomb.

Sure you can argue that in 50 years time Iran MAY have a MAD Ayatollah.... who MAY want to LITERALLY wipe Israel off the map. But you can't operate foreign policy based on such irrational possibilities, you just can't and there are ways to deal with avoiding that situation which is what the IAEA Safeguard measures are about... and Iran is proposing not only to agree to the full IAEA Safeguard measures but to open up even more access to even more sites and conditions beyond Safeguard instrument - what they're terming as 'Additional Protocols'. We're taking hundreds of cameras on centrifuges and rods and constant (every 3 weeks) visits from the IAEA which would know within days if there was a diversion of any nuclear material towards a possible breakout effort, which by the way is again... totally understated in its complexity and scale by the media... and has no corollary with the N.Korea scenario at all.

You make it out like it's been Iran who has played all the games and acted the mick in all this. There's been at least 6 parties who have played 'self-interest' games throughout this whole debacle - US, RUSSIA, ISRAEL, IRAN, IAEA AND THE EU.

Anyway there's a deal in the making right now and I'm hopeful they'll take the 20% U from whoever is giving it and allow intensive access by the IAEA and then the saber rattling will stop for now. Erratic effects of all this on the worlds oil markets is reason enough at this point.

The threatening of enormous M.O.P. bunker busting strikes on many Iranian facilities in the context of NO EVIDENCE FOR IRAN GOING FOR THE BOMB is just another example of how irrational the game theory has been. Complete bullsh1t - the strikes were NEVER possible and NEVER going to be carried out within either Israeli or American administrations. Iran always knew this, they have a completely different threshold for saber rattling then we are used to the west.

Of course it was Israel who infused all this irrationality and the AEI in Washington and think tanks like it.... it's all been a political mess and ultimately served Iran at the end of it which is why I think Iran is ready to cash in its chips at this point having shown how much influence it wields over the regions future in a context of a receding US footprint in the ME. A deal will be reached and both sides will save face to some degree.

Iran will get its nuke tech and a very intensive IAEA arrangement will be made and Obama will listen to reason and ignore the bomb-bomb Iran people and the sanctions will be lifted and Iran will have won by playing the long game and made a mockery of a dysfunctional, surprisingly less than powerful, US foreign policy machine.

Pure games... nothing to do with Iran going for the bomb.

Jonny7

Naive.

the regime is so keen on medical isotopes they are willing to forgo their entire economy.. interesting policy.

We wouldn't accept it from our leaders, why should the Iranians accept it from theirs? oh that's right, they don't have any choice in the matter.

They are playing a game of bluff with the region (and wider world) that has nothing to do with the interests of the Iranian people and everything to do with ego and nationalism - and they're getting called out on it.

Be like Nutella

I never said Iran was pushing the nuclear technology issue for purely good reasons or only in the interest of its citizens on the streets of Tehran or anything like that.
You're right when you say to think that would certainly be naive. They want isotopes for a million cancer patients, advanced nuclear power and associated technological advances for the good of Iran, scientifically, economically and for international prestige.

But most of all they are a severely and overly proud nation - who suffered so much at the hands of 'the west' and will not be bullied away from developing nuclear technologies no matter what games they need to play with or against 'the west' and Israel and THIS POINT is valuable to them because to WIN or even be SEEN TO WIN in this debacle will be worth so much to them in regional influence as much as it would for Israel to WIN this situation. Therefore I hope that ALL SIDES WIN and Iran gets what it wants, US gets assurance of no breakout nuclear capability and the associated market order and political capital that ensues and Israel gets a ME where it remains the nuclear big dog with 300 nukes instead of a nuclear arms race (which I don't believe was a real possibility in this equation).

It is all about proxy influence in a region of a lot of barking and not so much biting.

I don't think I'm naive at all Johnny - just on the other side of the fence than you is all. For every reason you can cite for why we should believe Iran is going for the bomb I can give you one why it isn't and won't. Time to treat Iran with respect and as an equal or nobody is going to get anywhere with them and the only people who suffer are the citizens of Iran who we prescribe a better future to but really who just want bread at the market not to cost an arm and a leg.

Jonny7

Look at the intentions of the Iranian administration, read the speeches, "death to US, death to Israel" is regularly chanted in parliament, they flout the NPT, they flout the IAEA, they flout the international community, they've flouted an attempt by Bush for an agreement, they flouted Obama's offer of talks and reconciliation when he came to power.

There's nothing "peaceful" about that approach to nuclear tech.

Respect is earned, it's not a right. Especially in the international playing field, which is not level to begin with.

Libya managed to pull this off, and so could Iran, but nope, they have other intentions.

Be like Nutella

Although I think I know what you are trying to say vis a vis hoodwinking the Intl Community as Gaddafi did right to the end (although not without certain Intl players playing 'stupid') Iran is not comparable to Libya on any level or in any sphere and is not useful in this argument.

I know well all the 'death to Israel' rhetoric that has gone on for years in Iran. We in the west though literally have no understanding of how things are done there. The culture and mannerisms are all different. I'm not even joking. They say 'Death to Traffic' when they're in rush hour, seriously. That doesn't mean that they haven't slung ridiculous aggressive rhetoric towards Israel. The fact of the matter is that if you ask any Iran expert (or read the opinions of all the analysts of all the major think tanks on the subject CFR etc) they will tell you that most of that is all a part of the political culture in Iran and the region for a long time and cannot be usefully appreciated or understood by western unfiltered eyes. 'Wiping Israel off the map' was never a literal comment concerning the totally unrealistic future intention to ever hit Israel with massive 50 Mt nuclear weapons. Our media chooses these comments and presents them as if France has said it about Spain which is not accurate or useful. It is a totally different ball game and should be treated as such. You have to stop viewing Iran simplistically as some sort of 'Evil' country. There never ever has been an EVIL country as hard as Germany tried to be in WW2 - many many millions of Germans were not in agreement with the actions of its leaders (and many were). In Iran there is a complicated distrust between the religious leaders and appointed quasi religious justice system and the positions and exec branches of the elected president. What one person says and what the Ayatollah does can be totally apples and oranges. But there is a consent among analysts, google it, that Iran is, on the whole, a 'rational actor'.... fiery rhetoric or not (and by the way Israel and some US figures have barked so much fiery rhetoric too in the last decade as we all know.... do we need a 5 thousand examples?)

Categorizing Iran as a Rational Actor says a huge amount. THE top American military guy said this for instance on GPS about 5 months back if I remember right. It means that you can't compare Iran to other actors such as N.Korea or Libya or Syria or Saddam's Iraq or any other Rogue irrational scenario whether or not they are Islamic countries or not and I feel you are not a big fan of Islamic run countries.. haha... I am not either believe me... a lot of them are so backwards and up their asses on things like equal rights and women's rights and all kinds of stupid sh1t.

Is Iran run by a totally out of control despotic regime? out to crush its people and which allows no rights to women or education to all? or prevents its people from prospering? No, not at all.... for all their faults and there are many many.... and their day will come.... be assured of that... Iranians will want more and more freedom until the current system cannot contain that wish and their system will have to reboot at some point... guaranteed. But that time is not now and the wish for total revolution is not there in Iran as much as you or I may wish it was. Iran is a quasi westernized theocratic semi democratic weird ass system... almost impossible to understand from outside of it... and major experts say this not just me. But Iran has potentially a good future economically and technologically and could conceivably grow into a major success as a modernized democratic nation down the road. Treating them with absolute distrust at every turn and 'punishing them' with the whip of sanctions etc when there is NO EVIDENCE THEY ARE AFTER THE BOMB!!!!!! NEED I REPEAT A THOUSAND TIMES!!!.... is not the way to play it.... and the US knows this... finally... after all the bluster of rhetoric and Israel baby-sitting is coming to an end. There will be an IAEA deal by summer mark my words. You can stop fearing an Evil Ultra Islamic Israel hating Nuclear Armed Iran out to destroy Israel and cause world war 3 and create a massive ultra Islamist empire throughout the middle east.

clairefontaine

nutella,

Hasn't their currency all but collapsed because of all the EU and US sanctions placed on them?

Don't all those sanctions and a crappy currency all but pave the way for an aggressive retaliation? Plus the US ships in the straits of hormuz?

I'd be pretty scared too of them having nuclear weapons.

Be like Nutella

Yes they are havin a rough time.. but not the fat cats... the people on the street.... that serves which purpose exactly? These people are proud Iranians and although they have major grievances with their leadership (the urban young educated class) they are more pissed at the Intl bullying that is going on which makes their everyday stuff more expensive... saying that the average Iranian does not HATE American people... they just hate the games that are going on, on all sides involved. They also believe strongly that Iran should have the right to develop peaceful nuclear tech to the utmost of its ability, as clearly do I.

Clairefontaine Iran is so far from having usable nuclear weapons (let alone even wanting one) its laughable and the idea of them actually firing one at somebody for some reason for just about any reason you can cite is completely irrational and makes no sense at all on any level. This is the problem, people have a totally fuked up view of what's been going on and what hasn't... because of the media basically who are just so bad at reporting on this whole thing they just help make it worse.... which it doesn't need coz it's already fuked enough up as it is haha

consider this Daily Mail crap:

"Scientists in Iran could be producing a nuclear weapon three times as powerful as that which destroyed Hiroshima during the Second World War, according to a leaked diagram. "

Good vintage fear mongering grab your attention crap which means absolutely nothing, nothing at all. Yes the tests happened at Parchin... but the facility was there already and the tests were extremely preliminary although that shouldn't preclude it from attention by the IAEA and Iran will have to agree to more leeway in that space, which is actually the crux of the current impasse. However, those suggested tests happened in a different period. This is important because there has been no further research towards any explosive or military ends since that time and even then it was extremely exploratory in nature... I am not saying a previous Iran did not go down certain avenues towards researching its potential to develop a nuclear weapons program at some point in the future but that is not the Iran experts have agreed on which we see before us now.... whether that makes you forever distrust them on the entire issue is up to you and I would recommend a lot more research on your part to arrive at that pre-emptive position.

Now I could say Claire go watch this piece by Christian Amanpour... difference being that this piece is irrefutable and I challenge anyone to attempt to knock it down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kP11iU6cPfQ

You have to have an open and critical mind with these things... hell I've watched hate filled prejudiced AEI speeches and read reports from Hawks like Elliot Abrams all along the way because I'm open to all the sh1t on both sides.... and I may yet change my position IF somebody can refute the contents of, for instance this Amanpour piece... which sums up what the experts are saying ... at this juncture. Things change, people learn more... and prejudices evaporate in the face of facts and raitonality and the barking and rhetoric stops and the business of boring day to day bureaucratic IAEA deal making takes over and impasses become routes to long term deals... which is a lot better than Israel launching a limited vicious air raid on some Iranian nuke cites which sets off an unpredictable sequence of events which could lead literally anywhere right up to massive regional war. And that is what this whole thing is about.... getting to the facts.... calm heads and rational approached and no prejudice... and dealing with each other like equals... rational nations with interests ready to come to a compromise which is the only way this world has stayed away from regional war in the last 68 years. Watch the piece... I bet Johnny hasn't yet ; )

and Johnny if you got some good stuff for me to read or watch bring it on... I may be Iran-bashing by the next day if it makes any sense ; )
I'm just playin but ya gotta be open minded.... it IS more fun to hate and bash and accuse and hold stubborn positions and distrust the 'bad guy' forever but this situation is more complex and subtle than that. They ain't after nuclear weapons.

They'll write a text book on it I bet and teach it as part of Game Theory 101 in Stanford... a pseudo Cuban Missile Crisis of our time.

Be like Nutella

http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=767&Itemid=74&jumival=9477

watch this interview with ex-IAEA dude Bob Kelley about the Parchin site.

lockon...

Why does Iran need nuclear power when it is 2nd in the world in proven gas reserves and 4th in oil reserves.

Be like Nutella

good point

however...

"...With an annual growth of 6 percent to 8 percent in demand for electricity and a population estimated to reach 100 million by 2025, Iran cannot possibly rely exclusively on oil and gas. The aging oil industry, denied substantial foreign investment largely because of American sanctions, has not been able even to reach the pre-revolution production level of 5.5 million barrels per day. Of Iran's 60 major oil fields, 57 need major repairs, upgrading and repressurizing, which would require $40 billion over 15 years. Iran's current production level of 3.5 million barrels per day is increasingly geared toward domestic consumption, which has grown by more than 280 percent since 1979. If this trend continues, Iran will become a net oil importer by 2010, a catastrophe for a country that relies on oil for 80 percent of its foreign currency and 45 percent of its annual budget...."

That's way back from from 2003

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/14/opinion/14iht-edsahimi_ed3_.html

This is more recent

2011

"...In 2010, Iran was the third-largest exporter of crude oil globally after Saudi Arabia and Russia. However, falling production and increases in domestic consumption will continue to squeeze the volumes of oil available for export in recent years...."

"...international sanctions enacted in the summer of 2010 have slowed progress across the energy sector, especially affecting upstream investment in both oil and natural gas projects. The United States, United Nations, the European Union, and a number of European and Asian countries have targeted the Iranian energy sector with sanctions of varying degrees of stringency. These have prompted a number of international energy companies to pull out of upstream projects. Sanctions have also impeded the import of refined products, prompting efforts to boost domestic production and curb rising demand in Iran....."

http://www.eia.gov/cabs/iran/Full.html

So you see it's all a hypocritical game of trying to cause regime collapse on one hand and trying to force an IAEA deal on the other and none of it makes sense when you look at the big picture.

It is a mistake in my view to play the game as if the regimes survival requires the economy to remain at a certain level. It is also a mistake to view Iran as going for the bomb, period. They are not 'going for the bomb' ... not now and not soon. The key is to make a deal with them about the 20% U and let them allow the AIEA all over their sh1t 24/7 like they say they will if they get their 20% U and a full international agreement which says Iran has the full IAEA rights to develop peaceful Nuke Tech. This will require America to allow Iran to be seen as winning something and THAT is the MAIN reason for all this crap. It's a game about influence and prestige in a middle east with a near future of a much much smaller US footprint. That's all it is. The Iranian regime is not close to collapse, the sanctions will not force anything... they're too stubborn for that type of sh1t. Iran plays a long game and has more tenacity than the West could possibly understand... let alone a campaign ridden Washington of changing guards and pro-Israel lobbying.

Iran will get its agreement and both Chuck Hagel and Iran will be seen to have won... and the world will sigh in relief that trigger happy ignorant fukheads didn't get their way and strike Iranian nuclear sites like that ever made any sense at all!

Wish they were as trigger happy with Assad... coz that MF is going to massacre and massacre. US foreign policy is so fuked up.

'let's strike Iran's nuclear facilities coz that will reduce risk'

'lets NOT help the Syrian people because that will increase risk'

bunch of fuks..... says one half of my brain... the other half knows its slightly more nuanced than that : )

Be like Nutella

Did anyone else hear something about Iran's Fordo Nuclear facility being hit with an explosion?

Jonny7

It happened last monday according to one dodgy article on a very crank website

Still, could be possible, the Iranians have a very tight lease on media

CollardGreens

Did anyone else hear something about Iran's Fordo Nuclear facility being hit with an explosion?

yes, it's all over the news here in the states. One news source said it was an inside job and it had to be done by somebody inside the plant because it was so far underground that an air strike couldn't possibly hit it.

That is all I got from watching TV and can't verfiy any of it.

Be like Nutella

WOW It does seem to have happened alright but Iran is still publicly denying it so far. From what I have read (about 20 diff articles in 20 diff papers) the only thing supposedly known, so far, is from a report from an ex-Iranian intelligence dude who said a major blast happened which was so big/intense it shook buildings within 5km of the blast and possibly trapped more than 200 people underground. This would imply that it was not the result of any sort of air strike and was either an accident which Iran are covering up until they get on top of it (to prevent panic and show weakness and a host of other possible reasons) OR that it was an inside job executed at the behest of Israel or the US or both or neither (possibly an Iranian who had personal issues with the nuclear program). There is a chance it was caused by a cyber attack but I'd say that's a stretch although cyber attacks have in the past caused transformers to explode causing power outages in nuclear related facilities. The Israeli's have basically said an explosion happened at Fordow and are analyzing the situation right now.



"...The official added he wasn't sure if the explosion had been caused by "sabotage or accident," but implied it had indeed happened...."

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/428617/20130128/iran-nuclear-explosion-fordow-israel.htm

"...Israeli intelligence officials have confirmed that a major explosion has rocked an Iranian nuclear facility, according to a report Monday in The Times of London...."

http://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-intelligence-confirms-blast-at-iranian-nuclear-facility/

Here's Iran denying it completely..

“The false report of an explosion in the Fordo site is western propaganda ahead of the nuclear negotiations in order to impact the talks,” Seyyed Shamseddin Barbardoudi, the deputy head of Iran’s atomic agency, was quoted as saying by IRNA late yesterday. “No explosion has occurred at Fordo.”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-01-28/iran-rejects-report-of-blast-at-fordo-nuclear-site-as-propaganda

This one is interesting in that there is mention of 'reports' of Israeli jets near the site at the time... this could easily become a propaganda war between Israel and Iran as a method to gather more info on what happened.

"..One Israeli official said: "We are still in the preliminary stages of understanding what happened and how significant it is." He did not know, he added, whether the explosion was "sabotage or accident", and refused to comment on reports Israeli aircraft were seen near the facility at the time of the explosion...."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/blast-at-iranian-nuclear-facility/story-fnb64oi6-1226563771215

Be like Nutella

Media today saying Iran is not going directly for the bomb - contrary to all the hyped up unsupported bush1t rhetoric until now.

There is a major shift in thinking. At least public thinking anyway - I never thought Iran was going directly for the bomb nor showed any recent signs that it was going for nuclear weapons at all and now the media is seemingly turning a corner.

"There has not been the run towards a nuclear bomb that some people feared."

That's directly from an active Israeli Intel Officer to the McClathy Newspapers in the last 2 months. Why would an active officer say anything of this sort whether anonymous or not? Either the officer in question has a personal issue with Netanyahu and his lunacy or this is a message direct from Mossad to the international community to clear the air a bit and reduce tension on the subject ever since the Israeli election reduced Netanyahu's actual executive mandate.

It's perplexing to say the least. As far as I understand it there have been those within the Israeli Intel community and defense forces who have spoken up or who have since retired and since spoken up strongly against the logic of striking Iran and that we should all ignore the barking from Netanyahu who has been simply playing politics all along. If diplomacy is a continuation of war by other means Netanyahu is a war monger and he cared not for the facts on the ground which are simply that Iran is not considered by either his country's Intel community OR the US administration to be currently going for nuclear weapons hence the step down in rhetoric and tension very recently which has been communicated to the media very forcefully almost as an action of policy by both camps and maybe in connection with the impending talks about the 20% HEU issue AND the 'Reported' 'underground' explosion event at the Fordow deep facility last week which is still a puzzle to all foreign parties thus far.

Carney - the white house press guy said of the explosion report,

"...“We have no information to confirm the allegations in that report, and we do not believe the report is credible."

This is not what the Israeli's were saying in the last few days - they seemed to acknowledge that it did in fact occur and were glad that it did.

Seems to me that we are looking at a serious mind game being played by at least 3 parties here and that we are not privy to the actual facts.

Only facts I know are that IF there was ANY EVIDENCE that Iran had made any moves directly towards nuclear weapons development that we would know about it. We don't because there isn't and the mind games we have all (except me it seems sometimes) been victim of such as: that Iran is X amount of time away from having nuclear weapons have been nothing but that - mind games - diplomatic game theory in action. Iran is not going for the bomb - it is not a rational action or choice. If they did we'd know within weeks and if they chose to they wouldn't be next nor near a working bomb with a working delivery system even 6 years from now nor would they have one chance in hell at succeeding in getting near a weapon in the end anyway as it would be so blatant that they were that US and Israel would stop them physically for certain and there's nothing at all they could do about that. They never were and they never could and they know that well. None of this has been about Iran going for the bomb - it never was.

This is all just one great big head-fuk within the context of a very globally influential and important region (economically) and a mosaic of regional issues and proxy war games between China, Russia, US, Israel, Palestine, Syria and a still-unfolding Arab spring in the context of a quickly diminishing US military hardware and boots-on-ground footprint in the region - nothing whatsoever to do with Iran going for the bomb - the military and Intel communities of both the US sand Israel have said as much - it's only the barking politicians who have been selling this fake ignorant narrative and you'd do well to realize the lies and diplomatic shapes you may have accepted unquestioningly.




http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/01/28/3205199/israel-iran-slowing-nuclear-program.html


I predict that the narrative you will be sold from the US and Israeli camps in the next few weeks will be something along the lines of this: Iran is not as close to the bomb as thought, in fact there is no real evidence it really was and we are now re-evaluating our entire analysis on Iran. Iran's own incompetence has slowed their progress towards a 'breakaway' capability. A deal will take some wrangling but Iran will look for HEU and settle for extreme IAEA constant checks and the US will celebrate that Obama's sanctions with International partners worked and he avoided Iran becoming a crazy Islamic nuclear power through force..... and even though virtually none of that is true we will all except it because its a complicated subject and we may have to actually read something to fukin understand it.

Jonny7

Be like Nutella wrote: »

Media today saying Iran is not going directly for the bomb - contrary to all the hyped up unsupported bush1t rhetoric until now.

I disagree. The Israeli's have been the only ones hyping it and giving timelines.

The US, EU have been focusing more on the fact that Iran is not being transparent on the issue and dealing with hypothetical possibilities.

There is a major shift in thinking. At least public thinking anyway - I never thought Iran was going directly for the bomb nor showed any recent signs that it was going for nuclear weapons at all and now the media is seemingly turning a corner.

We don't know what goes on behind the scenes. Perhaps the Iranians have given assurances through private channels. There is so much pressure being exerted on the Iranian economy right now, something has to give.

Only facts I know are that IF there was ANY EVIDENCE that Iran had made any moves directly towards nuclear weapons development that we would know about it.

We wouldn't necessarily know. With NK it was also hard to pin-point.

It's bizarrely naive to think that the Iran regime has a genuine interest in space rocketry and medical isotopes.

In Israel's paranoid corner, they would rather be wrong about Iran's nuclear programme, than be right about it.

Be like Nutella

The US regularly characterizes Iran as a despotic regime which carries out human rights abuses, limits freedom of speech and jails dissidents... and is an Islamist quasi democracy where one unelected 'Supreme Leader' has the final say in all things military.. and therefore is not 'allowed' to develop Nuclear Energy for fears it will develop nuclear weapons.

Consider the hypocrisy in this:

U.S. Nuclear Marketers Visited Saudi Arabia, As Trade Talks Under Way

WASHINGTON -- A U.S. nuclear industry delegation traveled to Saudi Arabia in November, as Washington and Riyadh launched negotiations toward sealing a controversial atomic trade agreement, according to government and business officials.

An industry official on Wednesday described the Saudi trade mission as “a first-of-a-kind, industry-led” trip. It follows a 2012 announcement by the Persian Gulf nation that it intends to build 16 reactors by 2030.

“On the nuclear side, that represents an investment of approximately $112 billion that they’re planning to make to bring those plants to reality,” the energy marketing representative said at a Nuclear Energy Institute forum on atomic fuel.

Through a spokesman, the industry official requested anonymity in order to offer candid comments about the trade mission at the Wednesday symposium. The Nuclear Energy Institute is the U.S. atomic industry’s lobbying arm and was a “supporting partner” for the business delegation’s visit, the official said.

Organized by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and U.S.-Saudi Arabian Business Council, the visit reportedly included a delegation representing 10 nuclear companies and 10 renewable-energy firms. Exelon Generation and SunPower led the atomic and solar delegations, respectively, according to information the chamber posted online.

The Mideast meetings took place two months before a U.S. State Department representative publicly acknowledged, early this year, that Saudi Arabia is among several nations with which “we are negotiating [nuclear trade] agreements.” Others include Jordan, Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam............

much more here:

http://www.nti.rsvp1.com/gsn/article/us-nuclear-marketers-visited-saudi-arabia-trade-talks-under-way/?mgh=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nti.org&mgf=1


Saudi Arabia - 17 Reasons the US is giving them a big load of Nuclear Technology! See if you can pick the most influential one? I'll give ya a clue... OIL.

1. Saudi Arabia remains one of the very few countries in the world not to accept the UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
2. It is the only country in the world where women are not allowed to drive - That is simply too mental to address intelligently.
3. Saudi Arabia remains the only Arab nation where no national elections have ever taken place, since its creation - clearly a champion of US values or more correctly an absolute polar opposite to everything the US says it stands for in every single solitary way.
4. No political parties or national elections are permitted - nice one that's also very American... give them loads of nuclear material so
5. The Saudi government is the seventh most authoritarian regime in the world! according to the Economists Democracy Index 2010. Well done Saudi Arabia here's a boatload of nuclear technology! Look it up - see who's company it enjoys at the top of that prestigious VIP of a$$holes list. 'cough'...jaysus nearly choked on some fine hypocrisy there!
6. Beheadings??? (in 2012!!!!!!! Christ cutting off a man's head while he's alive in an age of the Internet... that sounds just like the type of country to give nuclear technology to hand over fist!!)
7. Stoning, amputation and lashing - fine American traditions enjoyed by the Saudi's on a daily basis in a square near you.
8. Gay rights are not recognized. Homosexual acts are punishable by flogging or death. Well I suppose some republicans can at least identify so... a joke haha hilarious. Give them 18 nuclear power plants immediately.
9. Retaliatory punishments, or Qisas, are practiced: for instance, an eye can be surgically removed at the insistence of a victim who lost his own eye. WOW! Congratulations Saudi Arabia you have won a sh1tload of nuclear material!
10. There has been an intense debate over whether Saudi aid and Wahhabism has fomented extremism in recipient countries.[138] The two main allegations are that, by its nature, Wahhabism encourages intolerance and promotes terrorism.[139] Former CIA director James Woolsey described it as "the soil in which Al-Qaeda and its sister terrorist organizations are flourishing." - that's from the fuking former CIA Cirector! AND I LOVE THIS NEXT ONE....
11. Osama bin Laden and fifteen out of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers were from Saudi Arabia.[148] According to the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, "Saudi Arabia remains a critical financial support base for al-Qaida, the Taliban, LeT and other terrorist groups... Donors in Saudi Arabia constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide." Well why didn't ya say so: Here's everything you'll need to develop nuclear weapons.
12. Saudi Arabia officially has about 260 billion barrels of oil reserves, comprising about one-fifth of the world's proven total petroleum reserves.
13. 90% of of the 25 million Saudi population practice a type of Sunni Islam known as Wahhabiism which is commonly described as the most intolerant or ultra-conservative form of Islam...which is, as we know just LOVED by the US administration.. and absolutely represents people of totally similar American values - people you just want to throw 10's of billion of dollars of nuclear technology at and see what happens. Awesome.
14. No faith other than Islam is permitted to be practiced. Even private prayer services are forbidden in practice and the Saudi religious police reportedly regularly search the homes of Christians. Foreign workers have to observe Ramadan but are not allowed to celebrate Christmas or Easter.
15. Conversion by Muslims to another religion carries the death penalty. That's fair I suppose.
16. There are no organizations such as political parties or labor unions to provide public forums.
17. A woman can only obtain a divorce with the consent of her husband or judicially if her husband has harmed her.

Jonny7

Be like Nutella wrote: »

The US regularly characterizes Iran as a despotic regime which carries out human rights abuses, limits freedom of speech and jails dissidents... and is an Islamist quasi democracy where one unelected 'Supreme Leader' has the final say in all things military.. and therefore is not 'allowed' to develop Nuclear Energy for fears it will develop nuclear weapons.

The above is all largely true.

Consider the hypocrisy in this:

Yes, strong relations with Saudi, Bahrain and Uzbekistan are hypocritical considering the stance on Iran.

If the US were to determine ties based on human rights then they wouldn't do business with China.

Jonny7

Be like Nutella wrote: »

[*] Osama bin Laden and fifteen out of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers were from Saudi Arabia.[148] According to the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, "Saudi Arabia remains a critical financial support base for al-Qaida, the Taliban, LeT and other terrorist groups... Donors in Saudi Arabia constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide."

Yes, this is well known and documented. It's like Ireland was a huge source for terrorism against the UK. The Brits didn't stop trading with us.

If, of course, the leadership in Saudi were to adopt the same stance as the extremists in the country, then the relationship with the US would change very quickly

asherbassad

Iran has every right to nuclear technology under International Law and under the terms of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

To contradict Jonny's foaming at the mouth rubbish about them flouting the NPT.....they don't. Period. They are in full compliance with the NPT unlike the US or Israel who never even signed up to it. But don't let the facts get in the way Jonny. You're lying and that, too, is a fact.

The argument that Iran doesn't need nuclear power because of all its oil falls flat on its face considering the west had plans to build nuclear reactors in Iran in the 70's to free up more oil for external consumption. .. a stance that the current Iranian leadership also endorses.

But let's just say that Iran is "going for the bomb"....can you blame them? The US has been threatening Iran with destruction ever since 1979 when they had the temerity to nationalise their oil industry and kick out the thieving foreign oil corporations. The US has clearly demonstrated that it will not fcuk with anyone who could fight back. North Korea was on this retarded "axis of evil" but once they developed nuclear capability the US is loathe to be so bullying. Now it's just empty rhetoric and bullsh!t to keep up appearances.
Even if Iran does get the bomb..so what? They have no history of invading or attacking anyone for centuries, unlike Israel, France, the US, Britain, Russia....ALL of whom have the bomb.

I've said it before. America's whingeing about Iran and the bomb is akin to the schoolyard bully expressing outrage because one of his victims has started taking karate lessons. If the bully started sputtering about how the weak kid must be prevented from learning defense skills because he's doing so to launch a campaign of unprovoked and continued violence against the bully and his cronies, you'd howl with laughter at how pathetic he was.
America is just as pathetic.

As for this "death to Israel" "death to America" bollocks. Please, stop bringing it up. It's farcical.

asherbassad

Jonny7 wrote: »

Naive.

the regime is so keen on medical isotopes they are willing to forgo their entire economy.. interesting policy.

We wouldn't accept it from our leaders, why should the Iranians accept it from theirs? oh that's right, they don't have any choice in the matter.

They are playing a game of bluff with the region (and wider world) that has nothing to do with the interests of the Iranian people and everything to do with ego and nationalism - and they're getting called out on it.

More bollocks.
The Iranian leadership has NOTHING to do with the economic problems in Iran. That is down to Western imposed sanctions. You know the crippling sanctions levelled against Iraq for 10 years before invasion and destruction?
What's coming out of your mouth now is just complete sh!t.

Nutella, don't be roped in. Your stance is the right one, i.e. logically and critically thinking about the situation and coming to rational conclusions.

Be like Nutella

North Korea genuinely deserves more attention than Iran at this point vis a vis nuclear weapons don't ya think? If they weren't so bleeding mental (the leadership that is) and their economy so catastrophic and their strategic location so important to China - they'd be gettin the crap bombed out of them so fast let's be honest.

The CFR says,

Obama said that while it would take “over a year or so for Iran to actually develop a nuclear weapon,”

and they're right alright - it WOULD take more than a year IF THEY WERE BUILDING A NUCLEAR FECKIN WEAPON !! BUT THEY'RE NOT, NOT NOW, NOT SOON..

but never say never right? ; ) quick - invade them immediately !!!!


the main thing is there are quality world leaders working on the issue with level heads... and eh.... red markers ...or something

Jonny7

asherbassad wrote: »

More bollocks.

What's coming out of your mouth now is just complete sh!t.

To contradict Jonny's foaming at the mouth rubbish about them flouting the NPT.....they don't. Period. They are in full compliance with the NPT unlike the US or Israel who never even signed up to it. But don't let the facts get in the way Jonny. You're lying and that, too, is a fact.

Can you cut the insults?

The Iranian government, which by the way, rigged the 2009 elections, violently cracked down on the subsequent protests, then outlawed the opposition parties - this government is not being fully transparent with the international community about it's nuclear development - suspicions are quite rightly raised - remember that Russia and China are sanctioning Iran over it's nuclear programme.

Tehran, by and large, is clearly much more interested in nationalistic spats with more powerful countries and this obsession with nuclear power than it is with the welfare of it's own citizens and any tenants of democracy.

InTheTrees

Be like Nutella wrote: »

Consider the hypocrisy in this:

You're obviously young and didnt live through the hostage crisis in the 70's or was it 80's?

There's no way the USA is going to make life easy for Iran after what happened. They have a very long memory.

SO bear that in mind while being outraged.

(And comparing it to other countries in the region is nonsense, they're all different. Saudi Arabia never stormed a US embassy and took the staff hostage).

pablodiablo

i would imagine that if any of the two countries should have a long memory it would be Iran. Especially after the involvement of the CIA in the 50's coup d'état that removed Iran's democratically elected leader.

Jonny7

Be like Nutella wrote: »

North Korea genuinely deserves more attention than Iran at this point vis a vis nuclear weapons don't ya think? If they weren't so bleeding mental (the leadership that is) and their economy so catastrophic and their strategic location so important to China - they'd be gettin the crap bombed out of them so fast let's be honest.

North Korea is a completely different situation. It's being dealt with differently by different nations.

and they're right alright - it WOULD take more than a year IF THEY WERE BUILDING A NUCLEAR FECKIN WEAPON !! BUT THEY'RE NOT, NOT NOW, NOT SOON..

None of the major powers trust the current Iranian regime nor their intentions.

but never say never right? ; ) quick - invade them immediately !!!!

No one is really talking about directly invading Iran.

Putting aside all personal feelings about the US/Israel/Iran - it's best to look at the situation as logically as possible. The world is not a child's playground, so using the fairness argument is also largely irrelevant.

Israel, rightly or wrongly, due to their history, mentality, geographical location and size and many other factors will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear bomb. They will never take that risk. If Israel gets enough information that Iran is actually developing a weapon, the Israeli's will no doubt unilaterally attack Iran. No matter how unpopular, no matter how many people wring their hands - that's pretty much a certainty - the major and regional powers know this.

Iran is not cooperating with the international community fully, nor the IAEA, nor the UN - therefore, as I explained before, countries are quite rightly suspicious of Iranian motives.

It must be pointed out, that Pakistan played this whole charade before - then declared nuclear capability.

The most logical route is to bring Iran to the table in order that everything is transparent - Iran refuses to do this fully - hence the current predicament - therefore the major powers are sanctioning Iran.

the main thing is there are quality world leaders working on the issue with level heads... and eh.... red markers ...or something

Israel is responding to this with constant non-stop propaganda.

However many people don't realise that medical isotopes generally require 20% enrichment - 20% enrichment is roughly up to 90% of the effort required for weapons grade.

With the state of our economy - if the Irish government suddenly declared tomorrow that we urgently needed to develop nuclear power for medical isotopes and at the same time needed a crash course space program - well they wouldn't be in government very long. The Iranian economy, even before the heavier sanctions, has been hit hard by the brain-drain, unemployment, and inflation.

Couple that with the fact that Iran is sitting on the third largest reserves of oil in the world, huge potential for gas - all of which are going into some form of decline - many due to lack of investment - does beg some questions.

It's logical that many of Iran's neighbours and the international community are suspicious.

InTheTrees

pablodiablo wrote: »

i would imagine that if any of the two countries should have a long memory it would be Iran. Especially after the involvement of the CIA in the 50's coup d'état that removed Iran's democratically elected leader.

Absolutely. The brits and americans are responsible for screwing with the Iranians for years. The americans sheltered the old Shah when he was deposed.

But it doesnt alter the fact that expecting them to concede anything at all to iran is missing the point.

qaf

Be like Nutella wrote: »

Iran has offered a path to that access so why is the US not taking that path?

Are you forgetting that it was the Iranian regime that walked away from a deal in 2009? At the time even their Russian allies were urging them to accept but they still rejected it even though they initially indicated that they were open to it. They changed the goal posts at the last minute and said they wanted the transfer to take place on Iranian soil even though they knew that was not possible. IIRC it was believed at the time that they had demonized the US so much to their citizens that when it came time to close the deal they were worried about how it would look at home. It was also believed that most of the people advising Obama, including people like Hillary Clinton, did not trust the Iranians and that this was the one opportunity for Obama (at least in his 1st term) to make a deal. So when the Iranians rejected the deal Obama went down the get tough approach that he was being advised to take by his advisors. Remember in all of this that Iran is a theocracy that is willing to crack down on its own people if they protest and lacks a free press or free elections. The US on the other hand has free and fair elections and press with national elections happening so frequently that politicians don't have much leeway when it comes to taking risks. Obama giving the Iranians months to decide to take a deal only for them to walk away at the last minute was a much bigger risk for Obama than it was to the Iranians.

InTheTrees

Stuxnet was interesting.

It could be considered an active attack on Irans nuke facilities which set them back years although nobody knows exactly who is responsible for it(!).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet

Seaneh

InTheTrees wrote: »

You're obviously young and didnt live through the hostage crisis in the 70's or was it 80's?

There's no way the USA is going to make life easy for Iran after what happened. They have a very long memory.

SO bear that in mind while being outraged.

(And comparing it to other countries in the region is nonsense, they're all different. Saudi Arabia never stormed a US embassy and took the staff hostage).

You're obviously too young and didn't live through the decade that lead to the Islamic Revolution and the hostage crisis?

As usual, British and US foreign Policy biting them in the ass as they funded Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's coup to overthrow Mosaddegh's democratically elected government because he had the cheek to nationalise the natural resources of his nation and funnel the money into social and educational programs, how dare he!

Seaneh

Here's a video from 2011 of an interview with Prof. Chomsky explaining exactly why Iran isn't a threat to anyone outside it's own borders and why the US is pushing it's nonsense agenda.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rutrNbkrhIA

Jonny7

Seaneh wrote: »

You're obviously too young and didn't live through the decade that lead to the Islamic Revolution and the hostage crisis?

As usual, British and US foreign Policy biting them in the ass as they funded Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's coup to overthrow Mosaddegh's democratically elected government because he had the cheek to nationalise the natural resources of his nation and funnel the money into social and educational programs, how dare he!

The Iranians are still very bitter over this. In fact, the current regime has a very anti-US stance largely due to the coup.

The problem for Iran now is - traditional counterweights to the US, e.g. China, Russia are also sanctioning them. So their argument that this is purely a witch-hunt is getting weaker.

Similarly the international community is suspicious - the Iranians are not exactly transparent with the IAEA.

The Iranians can play the victim, but sadly the average person on the street is just a victim of their own regime's bitterness and nationalism and a past that cannot be changed.

Seaneh

Jonny7 wrote: »

Similarly the international community is suspicious - the Iranians are not exactly transparent with the IAEA.

There is a video in this thread with a former IAEA inspector saying exactly the opposite, they have offered to be totally transparent. They have allowed ti IAEA far more freedom than they are obliged to and there is no evidence of any military nuclear program... Do you know more than he does?

Jonny7

Seaneh wrote: »

There is a video in this thread with a former IAEA inspector saying exactly the opposite, they have offered to be totally transparent. They have allowed ti IAEA far more freedom than they are obliged to and there is no evidence of any military nuclear program... Do you know more than he does?

Tehran hasn't been fully transparent with the IAEA.

Here's the latest report
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2013/gov2013-6.pdf

Most of the reports read like this, it's been dragging on since 2003.

Seaneh

Tehran has allowed the IAEA far more freedom than the IAEA is entitled to under the terms of the non-proliferation agreement. That os a fact.

They have also offered full transparency several times but the US and EU keep rejecting their offer. Which has been pointed out already in this thread.
They also offered to export everything they enriched to 20% in exchange for fuel rods. There has also never been any evidence that they have every even tried to enrich past 20%.


The truth is the US and EU know Iran aren't trying to develop nuclear weapons, they are just using their usual tactics to try destabilise the Iranian government.

Jonny7

Not really no


Actually, quite the opposite, there were delaying tactics on both sides, but the Iranians didn't really pursue (read scuppered) the chance for external enrichment


The US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China and UN, IAEA, and general international community are not sure what Iran is up to. In this situation they have to be 100% sure.

Israel I would ignore because their rhetoric cannot be trusted much on this issue.

If we were floating on a sea of oil with our economic problems I somehow doubt you'd be arguing for Enda Kenny to launch a ridiculously expensive space program and go for nuclear power.. whilst chanting "death to Britain" in the Dail

Be like Nutella

it's a mix of everything that's being said here IMO..

some people jump to point out Iran is a bunch of lying terrorist supporting bastrds and others jump to point out the bullsh1t of the US admins past and present - it's a mix of both, as everybody knows. A$$holes on both sides and everybody's playing games! and in the midst of all this - facts and realities get lost or purposefully ignored, basically whatever suits your position. Similar to pre-2003 Iraq... lots of lies and half truths... anything to get what you want... in this case to limit Iran's power whatever way you can, let's be honest.

My problem is that there are major suppositions being stacked upon each other and too much hatred and emotion involved and when it comes down to it the only credible evidence for Iran making any efforts in the brackets of ' actual military nuclear capabilities' is the detonation research they probably did pre-2003 at Parchin. AQ Kahn did his usual best to get Iran into the nuke business as he did for Pakistan and N. Korea, that much we know. The IAEA refers to this work as “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s nuclear program. The US HAD a network of Intel inside Iran up to 2005 but then they lost a laptop (google it) and their whole network got burnt and the've had fuk to go on since, except maybe some compromised IAEA agent dudes.

Thing that annoys me most is, there is a disconnect between facts and reality and the weak arguments and exaggerations of many pundits and journalists which contradict think tank and sober military analysis about the Iranian 'threat' and so forth and that Iran is going 'directly for the bomb' and could have a bomb soon enough if they wanted yada yada which is just so plainly untrue it's comical and if anyone here would like to argue that Iran could achieve a reliable dangerous weaponized nuclear arsenal in anything like the time frames we see discussed in the media, which most people would 'think' from the barrage of sh1te journalism and new pieces on the issue over the last 4 years, then I'd love to hear it / debate the crap out of it.

At this point the average News-watching, paper-reading American on the street if asked about the 'Iranian threat' would be so ill informed, confused and ignorant to actual facts and have a massively exaggerated concept of how close or far Iran IS from having nuclear weapons. It's actually too late for real journalism people are predisposed at this point to believe Iran is one big Dr evil massive nuclear threat to the world which is just retarded and so sad at this point. Everybody compares everything to Iraq 2003 but in all fairness it is actually very bloody similar to the media crap before Iraq 2003 in that the memes have been consistently pumped out there by sh1te articles, fox-like sh1te news, incredibly hawkish journalists in papers like the Wash Post and NYT and the AEI and the rest of the 'Israel Lobby'... careful now : ) (and don't start that anti-Semitic conspiracy nut sh1te) to the point that nobody has a fukcin clue what the facts are and everyone just resorts to 'Iran is bad...ok' crap and avoiding any substantive factual logic based realist argument.

"...There is now little disagreement as to the intentions of the Iranians.
In the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) report from November 2011, the UN agency confirmed that Iran is developing nuclear weapons and reiterated the need to address this situation as soon as possible...."

http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/talking/23_Iran.html

UNTRUE
but that's the sort of crap that's out there.

This is it in a nut shell.

- Iran’s nuclear program includes everything that could be needed for development of an independent civilian power industry.

- But some of the components could be used for nuclear weapons development, and there is evidence that Iran has, in the past, moved in that direction i.e. Parchin

- We do not know whether that development has continued but experts generally state that Iran's nuclear intentions (which were exploratory and nothing at all like North Korea's for instance) were pre-2003 !

- their Supreme Beardy Leader has repeatedly said in no uncertain terms over and over again and again that nuclear weapons are un-Islamic and are a sin and would act against Iran's national interests and they will never develop them, as recently as two weeks ago in such strong language as to make any 180 u-turn on the issue so incredibly irrational that the only scenario in which experts actually think Iran WOULD go-directly-for-the-bomb is if the west bombed the sh1t out of their facilities and forced their hand. i.e. irrational actions lead to irrational actions

- The evidence available to those of us outside the IAEA and the intelligence services is obviously thin and second-hand. If they want a bomb, they are not rushing toward one, not even remotely.

Some of their actions may be an effort to increase their leverage in the ongoing negotiations in fact I genuinely believe we are watching a simple case of 'you can't bully us we can do what like, you bullied us in the past you won't do it again and... a kind of Iran don't do nukes but if they did ... Carlsberg-esque type thing'.

We just don’t know enough to say anything definitively ! The burden of evidence is on the accusers, especially when you're talking about bombing the sh1t out of another country and you have fuk all facts to support you're exaggerated accusations which when taken in context with the Israeli 'we don't have nukes' policy is so hypocritical... that peoples heads have actually exploded during IAEA negotiations. I get a pain in the back of my eye when I think about it ... as you all should!

Realist international relations theory says

- treat Iran as you see them,
- deal with them as they are,
- not how you emotionally view them from past actions such as 1979.
- Treat them as rational actors unless you have evidence to the contrary.
- Consider THEIR interests from THEIR perspective
- and how THEY view YOU.

I don't personally subscribe to full-on classical realist theory however it is the best model to apply to understanding this particular level and type of international relations, sabre-rattling

Have they helped organizations 'we view' as terrorists? Yes deffo.
Have the US and Israel directly carried out 'terrorism' themselves? Yes deffo.
Have the US directly helped 'terrorist' groups in the past on numerous occasions? 100% yes.
And do these two sides fukcin hate the sh1t out of each other? goddam yes! America is the 'great Satin', Iran is a bunch of 'mullah-lovin terrorist growing bastrds' - you couldn't make this sh1t up. It's like a bad 80's high school movie rivalry. The prom queen in question is 'respect and power' and everybody wants to f--- her.

Iran is NOT GOING DIRECTLY FOR THE BOMB
- THAT'S WHAT THE FACTS AND EXPERTS SAY. Just Google it - do 30 mins research you'll see expert after expert, general after general and even Obama say they are NOT going directly for the bomb. It's not debatable and it's important to consider constantly when talking or thinking about this thing. You might FEEL like they are because you've been bombarded with media crap saying they are - but that don't mean it true...

Everything else is exaggeration and fear mongering to suit one group or another or one level of 'interests' or another. There's a regional power/influence issue at play. Everybody knows that and to view the so called 'Iran Threat' in a vacuum without taking into account the greatly diminishing US military footprint in the middle east is ignorant and naive. But Iran also is playing games. Well motivated games to do with the memories of US/British 'meddling' in the past which we cannot ignore. Time to get real about all this sh1t people. America and Britain have messed with so many governments in the world there is so much resentment it's not even funny and a lot of that resentment is perfectly justifiable - would I bomb somebody because of it? No I would not.. but then again I haven't had 5 generations of my family effected by what the Iranian leaders term as 'imperial bullying' which we so often like to ignore as 'Chavez-style' nuttery. This is a story about an Iran who views itself as an Islamic country which views the US administration as evil and responsible for massive massive atrocities and which they view as untrustworthy, mind-blowingly hypocritical, who says one thing and does another etc.. and to an extent they are 100% exactly right. So start right there before you think about this thing. Again it's always useful to delineate America and the US Admin. Kinda like givin out about the girl at the cash reg in Tesco - it ain't her fault : )

But we live in different times to when the US (and Russia) was installing dictators and the world was in cold war mode and you need to acknowledge that fact because the world has changed, a lot, for the better. Hell stuff we complain about now would pale comically compared to what both Iran and America did in previous decades! But the world is watching now in HD and on the interweb! You can't get away with doing all this sh1t anymore. Hell if you do something we might talk about it on this forum... yeah... and then where would you be : ) but seriously you guys

So you're left with fewer options, softer options, bloody stupid bold-boy sanctions and all types of game playing and diplomatic negotiation which verges on utter bureaucratic nonsense at times. War by other means as they say - and in this case it is a war. Iran wants to be considered a great country basically, technologically, economically and 'Islamicly' and the US is ****ting it over its slightly shrinking 'stick' in a Chinese-dawn world.

It's actually embarrassing to watch the shapes of Israel and the US trying to make up for the fact that they cannot dictate how the world works anymore. They can't stop Iran getting the bomb without going to full -on war with them and that ain't gona happen so they can't actually do anything and Iran loves this dynamic and is mocking the US and laughing even though they have ABSOLUTELY NO INTENTION AT ALL OF GOING DIRECTLY FOR THE BOMB. haha they are a bunch of a$$holes the Iranian leadership no doubt and they are enjoying messing with America's head and pushing ahead with their civilian power program (whether or not it's economically sensible or not they don't care they argue it will be some day or that the technological journey is analogous to a 'space-race' type cascade of innovation etc etc whatever floats their boat). The Iranian leadership has the US exactly where they want them. They want the world to watch the US squirm and shift from one position to another while damaging the US-Israeli dynamic and letting the world watch how ineffective the US really are, how they can't bully like they used to and the Iranians are loving it. When it comes down to it this is kinda the crux of the thing and Obama has actually handled it quite well. He's put 'daylight between him and that smirking Netanyahu a$$hole. He's played the military muscle flexing role quite well without stepping too far and he's shown realism and control as far as well, ya know... not fukcing starting world war 3 in the middle east by bombing the sh1t out Iran... which would have been so incredibly damaging to the world system it can't be over stated, which of course he knew (deep breath here comes the Obama bashing). If anything this is Obama's defining contribution - he DIDN'T (and won't) bomb Iran. Fair play to him coz god knows anything can happen with these presidents and a lunatic media.

It's a game. It's remained rational so far, contrary to the best bullsh1t media attempts and here's to hoping it continues as a rational interaction between 3 states in a complex power-play. Gotta keep the heat low, don't let it boil over, give the Israeli's some camomile tea, remove chaos from the game as much as possible and do your best to infuse rationalism into the most psychotic but far reaching media on the planet.

Seaneh

Iran has oil yes, but oil is a finite resource and they know this. That is why they are pursuing a nuclear power program.
Peak oil us upon us, there isn't really much of the stuff left. They do have pretty decent gas fields as well, but again, finite.

G Power

InTheTrees wrote: »

Stuxnet was interesting.

It could be considered an active attack on Irans nuke facilities which set them back years although nobody knows exactly who is responsible for it(!).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet

i read recently that the whole stuxnet agenda is classed by a NATO committee report as an act of force

Corkfeen

Seaneh wrote: »

There is a video in this thread with a former IAEA inspector saying exactly the opposite, they have offered to be totally transparent. They have allowed ti IAEA far more freedom than they are obliged to and there is no evidence of any military nuclear program... Do you know more than he does?

Personally I'd view the actually IAEA reports to be the most credible. This is the latest one.
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2013/gov2013-6.pdf

Iran do not have to sign up to the additional protocol however their unwillingness to sign up to it is in itself suspect. The IAEA view Iran to be purposefully undermining them. So they view it to be plausible that Iran has plans to develop nuclear weapons.

This can't be described as Iraq 2.0. IAEA reports did not concur with the US on Iraq having WMDs. However Iran has raised flags in IAEA reports.

Be like Nutella

I'd love a poll actually, if a mod is reading this - a poll which asks very simply

"Is Iran developing nuclear weapons?"

Jonny7

Be like Nutella wrote: »

I'd love a poll actually, if a mod is reading this - a poll which asks very simply

"Is Iran developing nuclear weapons?"

I think you can create a new poll thread, there's an option

As someone who quite keenly defended Iran and Ahmadinejad in 2006 based purely on cynicism of US/Israel I am going to tell you now that poll will be no way accurate

Be like Nutella

fair enough : )

but it'll at least show us what the general sentiment around these parts - is

i.e. are US politics Boardsters of the opinion Iran is currently on a path to the bomb or not?

You could make the question a leading question.. it would be awesome... like

Do you believe Iran has 'intentions' towards nuclear weapons... open ended.. or 'ever' or in the next 50 years or whatever suited ya

or

Do you believe Iran's nuclear ambitions have a military dimension to them? (that's a nice one coz it's loaded and subjective)

or

Is Nuclear Iran dangerous to the world or a force for good?


I'm just kiddin I think just the question

Is Iran developing nuclear weapons?

covers it... I mean it's all bloody opinion anyway... haha that's the whole fukcin point isn't it.... there's absolutely no way of supporting the statement

'Iran is developing Nuclear Weapons'.... yee should consider that.

so the question is subjectively loaded no matter which way you ask it... and that is precisely the problem the US have, the media clearly has and as a result the world has!

InTheTrees

Seaneh wrote: »

You're obviously too young and didn't live through the decade that lead to the Islamic Revolution and the hostage crisis?

As usual, British and US foreign Policy biting them in the ass as they funded Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's coup to overthrow Mosaddegh's democratically elected government because he had the cheek to nationalise the natural resources of his nation and funnel the money into social and educational programs, how dare he!

Well that was my point wasnt it?

I was responding to the suggestion that both sides get together and hug and make up.

And how that isnt going to happen.

(And yes... US foreign policy is based on maximizing corporate profits. I get that.)

InTheTrees

G Power wrote: »

i read recently that the whole stuxnet agenda is classed by a NATO committee report as an act of force

I belive so. Check out "The Tallinn Manual". A NATO document.

http://www.ccdcoe.org/249.html

Its the future of cyber warfare and equates a cyber attack with a physical attack and most importantly encourages a physical response to cyber attacks.

Jonny7

Be like Nutella wrote: »

so the question is subjectively loaded no matter which way you ask it... and that is precisely the problem the US have, the media clearly has and as a result the world has!

Well we can address parts of it.

The media is not one entity. Unless you think the editors of a dozen different competing Swedish newspapers are told to relay with their counterparts in Malaysia to "agree" on stories.

There are definitely certain outlets that will toe the US/Israel line completely. However, you think French media, the same papers that wasted no column inches in savagely lashing into US policy over Iraq will toe the same line? nope

Swiss outlets, German outlets, Finnish press (ranked as the freest in in the world) are being told what to say?

Iran is not a black and white issue that some are trying to make it out to be. It's a grey issue.

Be like Nutella

I never said the media was acting as one.

I just said the media (and when I use the phrase 'the media' I am clearly referring to the general media and the general effct of said general media) has been sh1t on the Iran thing because they started out presenting the 'threat' and then gradually moved on to assuming the threat and now the whole ****in world thinks Iran is right now 100% going for the bomb.... which is not a rational conclusion based on evidence or logic. I can spend an hour pulling phrases from 50 of the top experts in the field from military strategy to think tank analysts to stratfor guys to ex-CIA to current military brass to ex-Mossad to politicians in the know - the general consensus is - that Iran have not made a choice to go for the bomb, yet. That's the official line. The problematic 'meme' in play to which I allude and blame 'the media' and completely ignorant average Joe is that even though the position is that Iran is NOT going for the bomb YET or put another way - is NOT GOING FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS AT ALL RIGHT NOW.... is not ever stated clearly at the start of any opinions in papers, Op Eds or sh1t news pieces. The 'standard' position is to give the 'impression' that it is a done deal that Iran is developing Nuclear Weapons - that's thew way it's presented and that's the way the average Joe reads it - this is what I'm talking about. Every single article written on the issue should have a statement within it which in black and white says 'Iran is not developing nuclear weapons right now in any way shape or form'... but of course the whole dynamic is already set in stone do I need to repeat myself 100 times you understand clearly what I mean I believe - the narrative has been written in stone even though it is false.

To put it in simple terms.

To go from point A (right now) to point B (the moment at which Iran could be considered a nuclear threat to anyone or anything) is about a ZILLION MILES APART , in every which ay you can possibly look at it.

Politically - How exactly would Iran's leader explain a complete 180 degree turnaround on his fatwa against nuclear weapons (and the fatwa of his predecessor). If somebody would like to approach that conundrum with a smidgeon of logic and sobriety I'd appreciate it. I'm open to new ideas.

Militarily how the hell does Iran 'breaking-out' and going directly for the bomb make any damn sense at all? Considering that it would be quite bloody obvious were they to do underground tests (plural!!!!!!!!) to get the thing to blow up right first.... and then doing the missile thing which would require and you have to be quite clear about this concept - it would require Iran to test missiles which can reach Israel right? No problem now we can reach Israel and finally make good on that wipe it off the map overmilked rhetoric - and then what? Blow Israel up? Really??? In what world does that ever make sense?? We're not talking about a loony dictatorship here ya know that don't you? Nor is it considered one by any expert anywhere. Iran going for nukes directly at any point now is suicide for the regime - 100% black and white suicide. It would go against every pattern of behavior from that regime in its history. It would be so irrational as to be just about impossible especially when you consider the line drawn clearly in the sand now which IS that Israel and the US will blow up Iran's facilities and other things IF there is a 'break-out' effort identified. That threat is in stone now it's done and accepted. We see a test come up on the seismographs and large missiles fueling up on pads and so forth its game over man. Boom boom boom the Stealth B2's and Raptors and drones and Lancers and cruise missiles and aircraft carriers and dolphin subs will all fire all at once like a new years eve display. And waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay before that point it will be blatantly and ridiculously obvious that Iran is going directly for the bomb - at which point it will essentially be closing its window on the world - literally pulling the blinds on the worlds economy, forget oil, forget business, forget bank accounts, forget trade of any sort - UN resolutions will fly out of NYC like a printing press banning any and all relations by anyone anywhere with Iran for any reason at all. Done Iran finished. Regime finished. All of the things involved in actually really in reality going 'for the bomb'... leaving the IAEA, making the thing, doing the tests and all the other things is 100% regime suicide. And in the context of a p1ssed off youthful educated Iranian population suffering in poor economic conditions and with a backdrop of an Arab spring barely out of round 1 - do you really think the Iranian supreme Bearded one and his mates are so fuking loopey crazy mental irrational fools???? I'm sorry I just don't get how we can just vaguely skim over all of that and still say 'ah yeah Iran is going for the bomb... sure ya know they are like... makes perfect sense... they're just lyin about everything so they can do it on the sly (like that's possible in any dimension) and then sure they'll just like blow up Israel or somethin or merica even - ya know just like lash a few missiles over at merica n all... ya know the way these bleedin mad arabs are like'. I personally think it's all a bit mental. I know the suspicions of the IAEA, I know the bad media and neutral media I've read literally everything and listened to everyone. Nobody knows jack ****in sh1t apart from that they should be allowed do the civil power thing, let us give them the 20% if they really think cancer patients are worth caring for and let the IAEA in to have a browse around and give us some peace of mind that yez are not bleedin mental, give us some extra protocol stuff (which they did offer before) and bobs your uncle! sorted. Tjhe US is making a balls of the negotiation JUST AS MUCH as these sneaky Iranians (like Larijani and his bro... very smart, uber sneaky, but not mental) are.

Why do you think these negotiations are falling apart all the time so many times over so many years?

Conspiracy heads say well the US really wants this and that and it's all about power and nothing to do with Iranian nukes.

Ignorant patriots say, well ya know.. the usual crap about Iran wanting nukes to blow Israel up etc etc snore next please

And the media ... is just the media... it's business they gotta say all types of sh1t about Iran almost every feckin day selling newpapers and ads on TV - there's been fuk all new to come out in this thing in years yet there's a bloody Op Ed in every major paper concerning this Iran thing almost daily. That's their job. To constantly bombard us with crapola and rehash the same sh1t over and over and over again.

The main think tanks all did reports/white papers on the 'red line' issue... the 'strike option' they basically all come out and say the same thing.

Hitting Iran with strikes of any scale now makes little or now sense and is irrational in and of itself as an action creating greater opportunity for chaotic events which may cause more harm then an Iran with nukes would anyway... download them read them that's what they all say - from Brookings to the CFR to even the lunatic EX-Neocons (who are sneaking back into the spotlight again under a cloak of neo-Realism in a world with a growing China boogey man) at the AEI so Obama doesn't want to do the strikes and never ever did... that's all bluster and shapes to appease - well - us really us idiots really and the Israeli hawks - not all Israeli's just the hyper ones.. hell half Bibi's military staff and every ex-Mossad guy in Israel came out and appeared on CNN or in some Op Ed warning vociferously against the 'strike option' like they were talking a suicidal drunken Uncle off a roof top. So the strikes thing was pure crap.... fueled and dramatized by a media... a crappy ignorant over exaggerating poor quality media.. surprise surfukingprise.... hell the media would've drooled over strikes if they were greenlighted - HD images of Raptors banking off carriers and match of the day level graphics packages.

The Red Line crap??? well very simply we were told X and then Y and then this date and then that date and then Bibi did his unholy embrrassment show and tell routine in the US with his white card with the bomb on it and got out his big red pen and drew a line and the spent a week nuthugging his lobby and the republican party using football analogies like 'we're at the 10 yard line blah blah fuking blah.." and none of it was based on one single semblance of reality.... none of it.. not a single word. Pure unadulterated CRAP.

And again Obama played it quite well (jesus I sound like fan and I'm not believe me) - he just took his own position and put some of his joint chief dudes on the media sunday circuit for a couple weeks to spread the word that a)America knew what was what and wouldn't take stupid smirking Bibi's word for it, god I hate that dude and his stupid face : )... and b) America don't want no Iran with nukes and won't lettem do it so chill out world we're on it - was the general message. The highest ranked military guy at the time appeared one Sunday while Bibi was spreading his crap - and this military dude appeared on GPS with Freed Zakaria and stated 100% clearly in literally single syllable words that Iran was nowhere next nor NEAR the bomb - couldn't even see it in the distant distance and that he had literally no intention of ever doing the strikes ... that the strikes was a bullsh1t option for duchebags like Bibi - he literally took all credibility away from every media article, news piece, fearmongering NYT writer, Bibi, the entire Israel Lobby and anyone up to that point which had supported the strike option or had made unfounded statements about dates of red lines etc etc.. and I remember watching it a couple of times and watching his body language as he kept repeating the phrase 'we view the Iranians as rational" over and over and thinking

'you know what? He's not worried about a nuclear Iran - not one single bit and not because he's representin, because he actually is NOT worried, at all.... and if THIS guy isn't worried then what the fuk are the rest of us worried about?'

Iran ain't going for nukes I'm tellin ya now... yes they hate the US (leadership that is) Yes the US hates them, YES they don't trust the US and YES they play games and 'play' everyone off everyone, newsflash - so does the ****in USA (leadership that is) The Iranians WILL win this thing. They'll get their civil power, they'll get their 20% probably externally form Brazil or some sh1t and the IAEA will eventually act as a bit more like uncompromised organization it is supposed to be acting like and Israel will continue to move slightly more left of whatever you call that position one atom in from the rightest side of the universe. And some day Iran won't be run by an Islamic pope-tership and finally get to that amazing thing we like to celebrate so often 'Democracy' ... I just hope they don't ask for refund when they get it coz hell knows America's great democracy allowed the Israeli lobby to create massive groundswell for the 'strike' option and that sh1t was crazeeeeeeeeeeee!