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SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING (Watch 2012-2013)

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  • Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
    Incredible conditions in the stratosphere right now. Temps at 10hPa <-80C N of the UK, yet are near +10C over Russia!

    A_tuncUCQAAj05i.png

    Is +10c possible that high up?

    Current 10hp still looks amazing, almost a perfect split.

    -68 down as far as Rome, covering almost all of Western Europe

    gfsnh-10-6.png?6




  • Is it too early to speculate how long this will take to propogate?




  • The easterly upper winds will have a better chance of reaching lower levels because of the reduced westerlies throughout the atmosphere. So not much of a battle to get down. In saying that it's all very complicated up there and I don't like to say this is a walk in the park.

    Keep watching and waiting with fingers crossed because as we all know anything that can go wrong normally does.




  • It's started, the pole is on fire! :rolleyes:




  • How often does an ssw occur?...is it every year or every few years. And does it make a difference what month it would happen in?


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  • kwik wrote: »
    How often does an ssw occur?...is it every year or every few years. And does it make a difference what month it would happen in?

    Usually about every 2 years or so.

    http://curriculum.pmartineau.webfactional.com/ssw-animations/




  • Cheers for that maquiladora




  • Posting this again about comparison to 84-85 winter with a little extra info.

    As regards the QBO, conditions now are extremely similar to 84-85 winter. It was a double winter easterly QBO where the previous autumn conditions were almost a match to now. Guess what happened next? Not saying same will happen mind.


    QBO DATA

    1983 
    10.85 11.40 12.17 13.81 11.93 3.12 -3.38 -6.53 -7.75 -10.12 -10.29 -11.42 

    1984 
    -10.65 -11.34 -12.98 -14.58 -15.05 -17.97 -25.39 -27.90 -25.44 -21.59 -13.19 -8.16

    2011 
    9.18 10.05 10.44 10.71 10.02 3.90 0.44 -0.49 -2.30 -3.05 -9.09 -16.25

    2012
     -16.07 -15.25 -16.74 -17.62 -22.04 -25.89 -27.82 -27.93 -26.60 -24.51 -18.95 -10.02

    Comparing the two sets we see in both that the easterly QBO only gets going midway into first year of the double.It takes many months for the westerly influence to clear before the ongoing easterly QBO can reach down and influence matters like now. Hope this helps.


    Now the warming that took place especially at the 10 hpa level )was a record in Jan 85 so a bit to find yet on that one but not a million miles off and still climbing.

    10mb9065_1985.gif

    10mb9065.gif


    Once again this is just to satisfy my own curiosity and seeing if we can get a similar tropospheric response.




  • I think it has alreay beaten the 1985 record. It appears on your graph that it hits about -30 and this morning it appears to be hitting -25.

    Or am I misunderstanding something? I don't know anything about SSW.

    http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=151822




  • That's directly over the pole graph and different to the one I'm showing which is 90n to 65n.


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  • The ongoing warming (still goin straight up) has now broken the 30 year record for this date.

    Very impressive considering it started way down around the record low mark for that time!

    10mb9065.gif




  • Yes climb oh little one. I be happy with another 15c warming. Need every help we can get.




  • I may have compared the wrong graph but it happened in the end anyway thank god. I need some snow, I still got winter gear from last year that hasn't been tested yet




  • Its only hitting about -37 at the moment. 1985 hit about -27. So not beating it yet even though it is a record for said date. CLIMB PLEASE.




  • Sorry, was having a bit of a backward moment and incorrectly understood Maquiladora. Is there anyway to gauge if it is near peaking or if it still has energy to rise?




  • Redsunset wrote: »
    Its only hitting about -37 at the moment. 1985 hit about -27. So not beating it yet even though it is a record for said date. CLIMB PLEASE.

    Do you mind me asking Red are these readings taking daily or weekly and is measured by satellite.




  • Met Uk latest facebook post

    You may have heard talk of the UK possibly seeing some colder weather next week and that ‘things going on’ in the upper atmosphere may be playing a part.

    The ‘thing’ happening in the atmosphere is known as Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) which we've explained in more detail in our latest blog...

    http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/01/08/what-is-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-ssw/




  • I understand that this is not a right forum to post it but does SSW has any effect on massive heat wave in Australia?




  • From the Daily Mail website of all places. In fairness, if it's correct, then it's the simplest and best explanation of SSW that I've read so far.

    CHANGES TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING COLD WEATHER

    The extreme cold weather which is forecast to affect much of Britain next week is linked to changes in the upper atmosphere.

    This is known as Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) which always attracts interest in the UK because it is often linked to the onset of cold weather.

    It involves rapid warming in just a couple of days in the stratosphere, about 10 - 50km up.

    Whenever we are affected by an SSW it brings easterly winds which alter the UK weather patterns. This is because we normally expect our weather to come from the west.

    The easterly winds weaken areas of low pressure and move our jet stream south. This creates high pressure over the North Atlantic and blocks mild Atlantic air.

    This drags in cold air from the continent to the east. More often than not a cold period follows an SSW.


    Full article here:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2259376/All-Britain-prepare-snow-weekend-warns-Met-Office-rare-weather-phenomenon-set-cause-freeze.html




  • Hi there everyone, are we having fun or has the twisted models infected your minds so that you can barely fit in anything of normal daily life anymore. :D

    Tick Tock, Tick Tock, are you ready for the block says the Stratospheric clock.

    Mixing down well over the next 10 plus days. Strat conditions are currently modeled wonderfully to favour eventual height rises to the north. I'm beginning to think this could be Oh so memorable and go down as one of the classics. Could be alot of southern tracking lows if this does indeed go to plan. Sorry for not giving too much interest in the short term but I'm in my boat fishing for shark not trout.

    The great white shark Siberian army are readying themselves for a conquest to conquer. The question is, how much of Europe's farm lands will they smother the life out of before the King of the Atlantic can once again banish them from his greedy hands.

    Seriously though there is superb potential coming. This is a major ramp from me and the biggest I've ever done simply because the Strat Warming is strong and positions are beginning to look favorably on us. The 10hpa zonal wind at 60N is forecast to stay negative for quite some time and this keeps the official SSW ongoing. What madness can become of this?

    fluxes.gif

    Time will most certainly tell but I think the AO is likely to fall like a stone when things get really moving. Patience is needed folks, Rome wasn't built in a day.

    Once again I stress the POTENTIAL of us staring down the barrel of this loaded gun.


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  • Thanks very much for you and Pistolpetes strat updates. I think its very safe to say that we are entering a UNIQUE phase in our weather and whatever way this pans out it will be very memorable (for some folk)




  • We don't want to see any more bumps in the road at 1000.
    Slows progress to downwelling.
    time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_JFM_NH_2013.gif




  • Forgot to post up the StratAlerts for ye.

    Here's latest. Note the couple days lag.

    STRATALERT TOKYO 11 JAN 2013 0500 UTC

    30-HPA ANALYSIS 1200UTC 09 JAN

    1. COLD MINUS 77 58N 102W, COLD MINUS 73 50N 52E, WARM MINUS 32 65N 138E, LOW 220 68N 92W, LOW 233 60N 77E, HIGH 370 48N 168W.

    2. CONDITIONS AT 30-HPA HEIGHT FIELD,
    POLAR VORTEX SPLIT INTO TWO OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND OVER WESTERN SIBERIA. COLD AIR LIES OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND NEAR WESTERN RUSSIA. WARM AIR LIES OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. IN THE ZONAL MEAN FIELD, EASTERLY WIND IS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE STRATOSHPHERE OVER THE POLAR REGION.

    3. STRATALERT EXISTS.
    MAJOR WARMING HAS CONTINUED AT 30-HPA. TEMPERATURE NEAR THE ARCTIC COAST OF CENTRAL SIBERIA INCREASED WITH MAXIMUM 38 DEGREES FROM 2 JAN TO 9 JAN 2013. REMARK: THE HEIGHT DATA SHOULD BE READ IN DECAMETERS ADDING 20 KILOMETERS.=




  • Question: Was the cold spell of Feb. 2009 a result of stratospheric warming or not?




  • patneve2 wrote: »
    Question: Was the cold spell of Feb. 2009 a result of stratospheric warming or not?

    Yes was a record breaker and the vortex split. Energy was so great that it fought it's way during a westerly QBO.

    time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_JFM_NH_2009.gif

    30mb9065_2009.gif




  • Hi Red could we be on for another record breaker?




  • Here's a question which has been worrying me.
    My understanding is that SSW is a fairly recent observation with only historical data to look at i.e. we have not had a definite example of SSW being identified which has then led to extreme cold for this part of the world.
    One of the reasons being proposed for the poor performance of the models recently is that they are not factoring in the SSW. My worry is that they are in fact including this data and it is this thats causing them to be all over the place.:(
    Someone please reassure me all will be OK.




  • Think she might of peaked now however further warmings are forecast to keep temps running high enough to keep a disrupted Polar Vortex. Its all about where the daughter vortices spin off and where blocking can then set up.

    Models should be picking up the Interference hence the confusion.

    By the way Feb 09 snow for East while brief was a direct result of the warming.




  • Cheers Red,
    Suppose my question is , was the 09 SSW identified as an event which could bring cold and lived up to its billing, or is this the first identified event prior to cold and we are waiting for it to verify


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  • Much easier to understand what's happening the SSW here I must say. The netweather SSW thread is extraordinarily complex reading for ordinary joes and I can't quite figure out whether the prediction that the SSW will be a staged feature which has three tries at killing the PV, is actually unfolding or not Red.
    I know the first warming happened but what about the other two and if not, what's the timescale for this thing. If there is a distinct gap between each warming, does that mean that a potentially good scenario for cold in Ireland emerging from the initial stage could be trumped by the next one and so on? Or do subsequent warmings simply reinforce whatever conditions derive from the initial warming?
    Also, is it possible that the various modelling systems haven't dealt with SSWs often enough to be able to predict the potential impact...hence the day to day shifting we're seeing?


This discussion has been closed.
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