NBA 2012/2013 Betting Thread

Paully D

Thought it might be a good idea for us to have a thread dedicated to betting on the NBA this season.

Any bets for tonight? I like the look of a Pacers (-7) @ Bobcats and Heat (-6) @ a completely injury depleted Knicks team. The double pays just over 5/2 with Paddy Power.

P_1

Paully D wrote: »

Thought it might be a good idea for us to have a thread dedicated to betting on the NBA this season.

Any bets for tonight? I like the look of a Pacers (-7) @ Bobcats and Heat (-6) @ a completely injury depleted Knicks team. The double pays just over 5/2 with Paddy Power.

There is the '1st big event in New York since Sandy' effect to consider here though

Paully D

pithater1 wrote: »

There is the '1st big event in New York since Sandy' effect to consider here though

True mate. I still think the Heat will be too strong against such an injury hit team though.

Paully D

Pacers lose by 1 and the Heat are struggling big time, down 15 in the 3rd. I'm going to sit back for a couple of weeks to get a better idea of how everyone is shaping up this year before betting on the NBA again.

P_1

Paully D wrote: »

Pacers lose by 1 and the Heat are struggling big time, down 15 in the 3rd. I'm going to sit back for a couple of weeks to get a better idea of how everyone is shaping up this year before betting on the NBA again.

I underestimated the hurricane effect aswell man, might be worth favouring the giants in the football due to this

The One Who Knocks

I hate to say it, but I think the safest bet you'll make all year is for the lakers to keep losing games.

Princetons not working and Nash is out with shin contusion.

P_1

I like the looks of a Celtics/Bulls spread double for tonight, any particular reason why this doesn't seem like a good idea?

padraig_f

pithater1 wrote: »

I like the looks of a Celtics/Bulls spread double for tonight, any particular reason why this doesn't seem like a good idea?

Wouldn't have that strong feelings this early in the season but gut would say there are better bets around than Celtics -5.5. Older team on the second night of a back-to-back, laying 5.5 on the road. Usually around 4 points for home advantage, and 2 for playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back. So that's saying the Celtics are 11.5 points better than the Wizards. Do we know the Wizards are that bad? (I know Wall is out)

Looking around, prefer something like Nets -5.5 at home to the Raptors.

The Phantom Jipper

Who do ye fancy to win each division? Looking at the odds for the Knicks to win Atlantic and Clippers to win Pacific, i'm mildly tempted by both...

votecounts

anyone fancy minnesotta to take denver tonight (20/33), might put a few bob on it.

buyer95

Had a punt on the lakers tonight. Could just be a false dawn, but there at home so fingers crosses! Feel Howard has a big game in him.

padraig_f

buyer95 wrote: »

Had a punt on the lakers tonight. Could just be a false dawn, but there at home so fingers crosses! Feel Howard has a big game in him.

Thought they might be overhyped after beating OKC, but -7.5 looks a decent price at home.

buyer95

padraig_f wrote: »

Thought they might be overhyped after beating OKC, but -7.5 looks a decent price at home.

I think they may be too. I just think they take the hornets... Howard dominates Lopez, and they will rely on a big game from Gordon who is shooting poorly and Anderson( who admittedly has been dead eye recently), but I like Clark on him. I could be all wrong ...

buyer95

I Have an accumulator on OKC and the Knicks for tonight. I'm not actually confident about this, OKC will cover I'm almost sure but my Knicks are due a loss... But hey I've gone for it, so I think we can get it done, we'll see.

Meglamonia

Thinking of going with Knicks,Spurs and Thunder on the handicap..feedback?

buyer95

Meglamonia wrote: »

Thinking of going with Knicks,Spurs and Thunder on the handicap..feedback?

I looked at this, and felt that one of the was going to fail me. In the end I went with OKC and Knicks, but could of just as easily went for OKC and Spurs. My feeling was Wall is a good match up for Parker, Nene for Duncan and Beal has been playing well and Ginobili is out . Go with your gut though man, you'll curse me if I talk you out of it. The Wizards have been great against the spread this year though...

Meglamonia

Anyone betting tonight?

buyer95

Meglamonia wrote: »

Anyone betting tonight?

Got burned Saturday, so I'm staying away. OKC at -8.5 looks appealing though, they always seem to respond well to a bad loss. :rolleyes:

Meglamonia

buyer95 wrote: »

Got burned Saturday, so I'm staying away. OKC at -8.5 looks appealing though, they always seem to respond well to a bad loss. :rolleyes:

What are your thoughts on Jazz to win and then Heat and Knicks on the handicap?

buyer95

Meglamonia wrote: »

What are your thoughts on Jazz to win and then Heat and Knicks on the handicap?

I definitely like the Jazz to cover, they have been great at home most of the season. The Knicks are rolling going for 5 in a row and in MSG, I think they should take the Pistons, the question is, will they win by 11 though? Anthony is due a big game, (9 points last night, 20 the game before), and Stoudemire is playing out of his mind so yeah, I'd go for it. As regard to Miami, the Bobcats are on a 3 game slide, and all 3 have been blowouts. MKG is out with concussion, and Miami will want (and expect) to start off their home stand with a win. My one fear though is that Miami might look past the Bobcats, but look man go with whatever you think yourself.

padraig_f

Just getting back into this, so don't put any stock in my picks, but going with the Nets -4 tonight against the Lakers. Howard out injured and World Peace suspended for fighting

padraig_f

In hindsight, maybe it was a bad idea to bet on a team without a proper coach. They looked like it too, pretty shambolic performance. After watching the game, I'd look to fade the Nets from this point on. I think they probably got a temporary fillip after Avery Johnson leaving, but looking at the way they played last night, I can see things unravelling. Decent amount of talent, but they don't look like a cohesive team.

padraig_f

No lines out for Thursday's games. I think it's good practice to make your own lines in advance of the betting lines coming out, so I'll try that. Dwight Howard and Joakim Noah are both questionable, so I'll make two lines, with and without.

Nuggets vs. Bulls
Nuggets -7.5 (Noah plays)
Nuggets -9.5 (Noah doesn't play)

Celtics vs. Lakers
Pick (Howard plays)
Celtics -2.5 (Howard doesn't play)

These are what I think the lines should be, rather than trying to predict them. The Nuggets are 21-3 at home, so I give them an extra point or two above normal for home advantage.

Celtics-Lakers is an interesting handicap with their various injury problems, I'm less sure about that line.

buyer95

I've been crap lately but tonight I liked some of the lines so I have a three game spread. I have the Clippers at -4.5 against Philly, Boston -3.5 against the Bobcats and Brooklyn at +9.5 against Indiana. Some weird lines, obviously bookies reckon the triple over time for Boston will keep the game close. The Clippers are up and down lately, but with CP3 back 3 games now I feel they are a team that can be backed again. I don't see the Nets beating the Pacers, but think/hope it will be closer than 10 points. Accumalaters are dodgy at the best of times, but I just thought the lines were weird, who knows...

Paully D

Bulls are a best priced -2 and widely available -3 at home to a Spurs team without their big 3 (Duncan, Parker and Manu). Worth a punt anyway.

buyer95

Good night for me last night, had the Hawks at -3.5 and the Knicks at -2 for the end of the 1st quarter. The knicks actually went on to lose so I got a bit fortunate there. Won't complain

padraig_f

Anyone betting on tonight's games?

Thunder -5.5 vs. Heat
Lakers +3 vs. Clippers

I'm kind of on the fence, which probably means I shouldn't bet. Thunder vs. Heat is an interesting handicap, because of the matchup, specifically with the two best players guarding each other. And motivation, which is always a question for regular season games. The Heat haven't really looked motivated for much of the regular season, but could get up for this. And you've got the playoff revenge motivation for the Thunder (but I think they're always fairly well motivated). Hard to say how it will go.

buyer95

padraig_f wrote: »

Anyone betting on tonight's games?

Thunder -5.5 vs. Heat
Lakers +3 vs. Clippers

I'm kind of on the fence, which probably means I shouldn't bet. Thunder vs. Heat is an interesting handicap, because of the matchup, specifically with the two best players guarding each other. And motivation, which is always a question for regular season games. The Heat haven't really looked motivated for much of the regular season, but could get up for this. And you've got the playoff revenge motivation for the Thunder (but I think they're always fairly well motivated). Hard to say how it will go.

I'm not betting tonight, but I'd stay away from putting money on the Lakers, Clippers have really impressed me the last few games, I have a sneaky suspicion they could blow the Lakers out.

padraig_f

buyer95 wrote: »

I'm not betting tonight, but I'd stay away from putting money on the Lakers, Clippers have really impressed me the last few games, I have a sneaky suspicion they could blow the Lakers out.

Yeah the line is teasing you to take the Lakers, but I'm so down on them since Gasol went out, I can't do it, so I'll pass on this one.

After thinking about the other game some more, I decided to go with the Thunder -5.5. The motivation is clearly with them, they'll be very strongly motivated to prove they can beat the Heat, and I think it would be pretty devastating to them to lose on their home court. I can't see Heat motivation being much better than normal (which is to say not that high). They play a lot of marquee games, and having beat the Thunder in the Finals last year, they have less to prove.

Matchup-wise you have to favour the Heat as they've now won 5 straight against the Thunder, going back to last year's Finals. So that was what I was weighing up. But where there's a difference in motivation, I think motivation trumps matchups, because you need to have energy first and foremost. Playoffs would be a different story, but given the circumstance, I think the Thunder's energy and motivation to win this game will be the deciding factor.

buyer95

I've had a change of heart and put money on Miami at +6, Lebron has been too good recently, and I like Miami to keep this close, even if the Thunder win

padraig_f

Put bets on Steve Novak and Matt Bonner for the 3-point shooting contest.

Odds:
Stephen Curry 3.00
Steve Novak 3.84
Ryan Anderson 5.16
Kyrie Irving 6.58
Matt Bonner 6.78
Paul George 10.79


Edit:
Gone with Jeff Teague and Brandon Knight for the skills challenge. Didn't put a whole lot of thought into that one, except that I think it's kind of a crapshoot, and they're both over 5/1 with 6 players in the competition.

buyer95

On a bit of a roll atm, LA and Miami have been great recently for me. Gone with the Suns at home tonight @+9 .The Nuggets have won only 40% of games away from home, and I fancy Phoenix to keep it close

Nuri Sahin

What's your record this season?

Paully D

Any thoughts on Boston -4 at Orlando tonight? Pierce and Garnett are expected back and the Magic haven't won 2 games in a row since mid-December.

buyer95

Paully D wrote: »

Any thoughts on Boston -4 at Orlando tonight? Pierce and Garnett are expected back and the Magic haven't won 2 games in a row since mid-December.

Automatic reaction is it's a great bet.

Paully D

buyer95 wrote: »

Automatic reaction is it's a great bet.

Up by 20 at half time, looking very good.

Paully D

Nice win on the Celtics last night.

Going for Dallas -3 at New Orleans tonight.

Dallas of course are out of the playoffs but they've won 3 of their last 4. If they win they move to .500 which means their players can shave (:pac:) and they haven't gone under .500 since 1999-2000. Dirk seems determined to end the season on some sort of a high with very good performances lately and to be fair, they have won 26 of 41 games since the beginning of January. They've also averaged 103 points winning 6 of their last 9 on the road. From what I've seen of them lately they still seem to be enjoying their basketball despite not making the playoffs.

New Orleans have lost 3 in a row and 7 of their last 9 and of course are without Davis.

Bit of a risky one with nothing of any significance on the line for either team but I'll have a small stake on Dallas -3.

moneyman

Who do you lads bet with? I want to place an accumulator tonight but bookies only seem to offer odds on a fraction of the games that are on. Why is this?

Not a big better as you can probably guess!

padraig_f

moneyman wrote: »

Who do you lads bet with? I want to place an accumulator tonight but bookies only seem to offer odds on a fraction of the games that are on. Why is this?

Not a big better as you can probably guess!

Dodgy time of the season with so many teams resting players and that, I think that's why they're off the board, uncertainty about the lineup. On a typical mid-season night, all games would be available.

Who to bet with? Shop around, use a service like oddschecker.com to get the best price. It's useful to have a few accounts, as one site may have a better price for one game, and another site may have a better price for another game.

Having said that, I bet mostly with Pinnacle, as they pretty consistently have the best prices.

Nuri Sahin

Bwin have the best opening lines for basketball odds. Spreads and totals can be off by a few and in the advantage of the punter.

I use them, Skybet and Pinnacle. Occasionally Paddypower for the odd special offer they tend to do.

buyer95

I've taken the Knicks tonight in Charlotte, at -1. Anthony is out with a bruised shoulder, Chandler and Martin still sit as does Camby, but I still like the Knicks to do the business, against a Bobcats team who are set up for a let down after beating Milwaukee the other night. The Bobcats have been doing there best to tank recently, and are 1 and 4 in the last 5 games, and even without Melo, the Knicks are just a better team, even if the game is dead rubber. I reckon jr will be big tonight, and Copeland has been very good recently as we'll, I just really like this bet!

Paully D

buyer95 wrote: »

I've taken the Knicks tonight in Charlotte, at -1. Anthony is out with a bruised shoulder, Chandler and Martin still sit as does Camby, but I still like the Knicks to do the business, against a Bobcats team who are set up for a let down after beating Milwaukee the other night. The Bobcats have been doing there best to tank recently, and are 1 and 4 in the last 5 games, and even without Melo, the Knicks are just a better team, even if the game is dead rubber. I reckon jr will be big tonight, and Copeland has been very good recently as we'll, I just really like this bet!

Knicks are +1 on Paddy Power mate. Quite like the bet myself to be honest, might go in small for a bit of interest in tonights games after my wins over the last couple of nights.

Also like the Bulls -3.5 at Orlando. Noah and Gibson are back (on minutes limits) but Thibs has the team playing hard every single night. They won't care that it's coming up to the end of the season and still have that 5th seed to play for. I think Chicago should do it. Again a small stake for me.

buyer95

Ah crap, Knicks are sitting Jr as well tonight, well too late to cancel bet, just have to hope the Knicks pull it out

padraig_f

First-round series odds from Bwin

East
Heat 1.01 - Bucks 17.0
Knicks 1.24 - Celtics 4.2
Pacers 1.24 - Hawks 4.2
Nets 1.65 - Bulls 2.3

West
Thunder 1.04 - Rockets 12.0
Spurs 1.16 - Lakers 5.4
Nuggets 1.22 - Warriors 4.4
Clippers 1.55 - Grizzlies 2.5

Liking the underdog side on a lot of them.

The Phantom Jipper

padraig_f wrote: »

First-round series odds from Bwin

East
Heat 1.01 - Bucks 17.0
Knicks 1.24 - Celtics 4.2
Pacers 1.24 - Hawks 4.2
Nets 1.65 - Bulls 2.3

West
Thunder 1.04 - Rockets 12.0
Spurs 1.16 - Lakers 5.4
Nuggets 1.22 - Warriors 4.4
Clippers 1.55 - Grizzlies 2.5

Liking the underdog side on a lot of them.

Any in particular? Apart from the 4-5 seed matchups, most of them seem like foregone conclusions.

padraig_f

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Any in particular? Apart from the 4-5 seed matchups, most of them seem like foregone conclusions.

I like the side of the Celtics, Hawks, Bulls & Grizzlies.
Not sure I like them well enough to bet them all, but will take one or two.

Interesting article today about home-court advantage in the playoffs versus regular season:
Home Court Advantage in the NBA Playoffs

Paully D

Boston +7.5 for me tonight. That line is just too big for me not to take.

Paully D

Paully D wrote: »

Boston +7.5 for me tonight. That line is just too big for me not to take.

Never in doubt :pac: Phew!

buyer95

I have bulls +5 tonight against the nets, fingers crossed!

Nuri Sahin

Jammy sod Paully :pac:

I post all my bets up on Twitter only, but I had Knicks -7 which was pushed. Thankfully took Knicks ML in the 3rd when both were 5/6 and Knicks down 3. Good start, just wish Celtic's had fouled at the end there before Smith stole the ball. Would have been a great start for me at least

Paully D

buyer95 wrote: »

I have bulls +5 tonight against the nets, fingers crossed!

I'm on it too mate, small stake. If it comes in I'll have another small stake on the Grizzlies +5.5 and if not, I'm still in profit for the night although I'll have to use the winnings to fund a new pair of underpants after that Celtics game :pac: