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US open 2012
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20-08-2012 2:33pm#1Okay am out of work and out of action so came up with a preview for the last slam of the year. It's the last slam for a few months too so am looking forward to it more than ever
I guess this can be used as the official thread if ye wanted though its only a preview really on my part so I'll let the mods decide. Anyway it's a nice place to offer previews/ predictions before it starts. Draws can be updated thursday by whoever! Only a week to go though so excited.
MENS
Usual Suspects
The big three of Federer (1), Djokovic (2) and Murray (3) are the obvious favourites and the bookies reflect this. Paddy has ND at 6/4 favourite, Federer at 5/2 and Murray at 100/30. Very little separates the three and I'd go along with that. It is fair to suggest the three will very likely make the semis. Murray has made every semi bar one since US 2010, Federer has been a regular fixture bar a few slip ups at Wimbledon and at this rate Novak may aswell get a special pass into the semis of slams! He even let JW Tsonga have match points against him at RG but he wasn't going to go down easy!
The highly desired 4th 1/4 of the draw!
AKA Ferrer's quarter. The Spaniard who defies all logic by playing the tennis of his life at the tender age of 30 is a gritty determined player but doesn't have enough in the arsenal to be considered a realistic contender. He's like the guy you hate marking at training! You know about it when you've played him. However many players will be secretly hoping this is the quarter of the draw they get as there is a semi spot up for grabs. Similarly Fed and Nole will be dying to get this quarter in the semi!
The pretenders
JM Del Potro represents the best chance of breaking the top 3 but realistically I can't see it happening. The Argentine would need a hell of a lot of luck with the draw. Tsonga similarly is able to mix it with the best on his day but while he's incredibly consistent, he's just off the level of the top 3. If either get Ferrer in the quarters anything could happen! Both Berdych's and Tipsarevic's 8th of the draw are the ones to get in the quarters for the big guns.
Dangerous floaters
The likes of Marcos Baghdatis, Ivo Karlovic and Sam Querrey are the likes of players you don't want to get early on. They have enough to trouble anyone on their day. The Colombian Falla also falls in to this category. Further up in the draw I expect Richard Gasquet and big serving Milos Raonic to have big tournaments. Wildcard Lleyton Hewitt (draw depending) will go a decent distance in my honest opinion. His compatriot Bernard Tomic who is having a mare of a season is the type of guy smaller seeds would not mind drawing!
So who will win?
Barring a miracle it will be one of the big three. Federer is a man on a mission. After being humbled by Murray in the Olympics he has bounced back well at Cincinatti but what really will hurt him is the manner of his defeat to Djokovic here 12 months ago. Federer was p1ssed (well not in the literal sense!) that day and will hoping to get one over on Djok like he did at sw19. Saying that the Swiss is due a tough draw after being handed essential byes to the semis at Wimby and the Olympics! If he can avoid Murray in the semis I can see him making the final and who knows from there!
The Serb is the favourite but I don't see him winning here. He has been a different player recently and not in the good sense. He seemed to just throw in the towel v Fed at the all England club and it was unusual to say the least. He was also outclassed by Murray at the Olympics. He is a hard court demon and no better chance to bounce back and draw depending he can well make the final. But I just don't see him beating either of Fed or Murray if I'm honest.
And that leaves the Briton. High off his golden performance in the Olympic games, the incredibly talented Scot has looked a different player since Paris both mentally and physically. No doubt the mentoring of Ivan Lendl has improved his game. There is also fer less throwing the toys out of the pram during matches. He is the best returner in the game says this observer and his ability to scoring winners from defensive and frankly seemingly impossible situations is second to none. If he can sort his first serve in the latter stages he'll win. That sounds an over simplification but at Wimbledon this was a major factor in the final. He couldn't get a first serve in to save his life in comparison to the Olympics where he was a demon at it in the final. If it means playing for positioning first then so be it but it will be interesting.
So prediction...(drumroll)... Andy Murray! Regardless of the draw he'll have to beat Fed and Djok most likely anyway. Bring it on!!!
WOMENS
If Serena turns up she'll win. But she has struggled at this venue in recent times throwing plenty of tantrums in the process. She was untouchable at the Olympics and was very impressive at the last slam. A new surface brings the others hope but Serena is the best player (who should be given the number 1 seeding) and her all round game p1sses over the rest. If she plays to near her best she'll be champ.
You'd expect the likes of Petra Kvitova and Vika Azarenka to be there or there abouts too. Samantha Stosur is reigning champ but I can't see her doing much here. The Chinese duo of Li and Zheng are good players in their own right but frankly there is NA chance! Sharapova can't be ruled out but she rode her luck at the Olympics and was outclassed at Wimbledon. Kerber needs to sort herself out mentally and Wozniacki isn't good enough. A possible dark horse is Venus Williams but last I checked she was having back trouble.
Sooo that's it feel free to add ye're own they'll be interesting to read. Be sure to include predictions
PS I'm nearly certain sky and eurosport generally cover this! I'm open to correction though but Eurosport had it last year I recall4
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I hereby declare this the Official U.S. Open Thread
Excellent preview, especially of the men's! I seen clips on Eurosport advertising the Open so I'm guessing that they'll show it.
Looking forward to this! I'd be surprised if Serena didn't win. She's been in great form since Wimbledon. Although last year I was convinced she'd walk the final and Stosur comes out, all guns blazing! A nice surprise. But I think she might have learnt from that and will try her damnedest to win another Slam to top off an incredible year.
The draw might decide who wins the men's singles. With Rafa gone, someone will get a decent draw and would be a shoo-in for the SFs. I'll be carefully watching this on Thursday!:)0 -
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I hereby declare this the Official U.S. Open Thread
Excellent preview, especially of the men's! I seen clips on Eurosport advertising the Open so I'm guessing that they'll show it.
Looking forward to this! I'd be surprised if Serena didn't win. She's been in great form since Wimbledon. Although last year I was convinced she'd walk the final and Stosur comes out, all guns blazing! A nice surprise. But I think she might have learnt from that and will try her damnedest to win another Slam to top off an incredible year.
The draw might decide who wins the men's singles. With Rafa gone, someone will get a decent draw and would be a shoo-in for the SFs. I'll be carefully watching this on Thursday!:)
Good stuff!!!
Aye roll on thursday. I'll be paying very close attention to the draw and I'm sure the players will to! I may even have to tweak some of my preview as a result!0 -
The Eurosport coverage is pretty useless. It normally focuses on lower ranked matches, I think because they don't have the rights to focus on higher up ones. And it's only live for the first 3/4 rounds, after that there is no live action what so ever! I got Sky Sports for one month last year just for the US open, their coverage is fantastic. So if any of ye don't have Sky Sports I would highly recommend getting it just for the month, you will not be disappointed!
I would really like Murray to win and had he not performed so badly in Cincinnati I would have picked him as favourite. He should definitely make the semis at least. As for the women's draw (I am actually one of those rare people who prefer women's tennis), I think Serena, Vika and Sharapova will all get to the semis. Radwanska & Stosur won't do much. Kvitova isn't being mentioned as a favourite at all but she has just won Montreal on a surface that was once her worst, and if she can iron out her wild inconsistency (which is a big ask) she could be a contender. Overall I'd have to pick Serena as the obvious favourite though. However this is the WTA so you just never know 0 -
yerwanthere123 wrote: »The Eurosport coverage is pretty useless. It normally focuses on lower ranked matches, I think because they don't have the rights to focus on higher up ones. And it's only live for the first 3/4 rounds, after that there is no live action what so ever! I got Sky Sports for one month last year just for the US open, their coverage is fantastic. So if any of ye don't have Sky Sports I would highly recommend getting it just for the month, you will not be disappointed!
I would really like Murray to win and had he not performed so badly in Cincinnati I would have picked him as favourite. He should definitely make the semis at least. As for the women's draw (I am actually one of those rare people who prefer women's tennis), I think Serena, Vika and Sharapova will all get to the semis. Radwanska & Stosur won't do much. Kvitova isn't being mentioned as a favourite at all but she has just won Montreal on a surface that was once her worst, and if she can iron out her wild inconsistency (which is a big ask) she could be a contender. Overall I'd have to pick Serena as the obvious favourite though. However this is the WTA so you just never know
Zero bearing imo. May well stand to him yet. He won it last year and it didn't do him much good. Similarly he lost before Wimbledon and then look what happened. I saw parts of the Chardy game and Andy actually looked as if he'd rather be any place in the world bar there. Easy to say when he loses as a fan, but that wasn't the Andy Murray we know. He did not seem one bit bothered after losing either. The fact he pulled out of Toronto a week earlier suggests a fatigue worry to me and I'd imagine he'll be in flying shape come next week. He seems confident anyway.
For the first time probably ever he is being tipped by many to win a Grand Slam. I wonder how that will affect him. I've read US articles with many claiming he has the game to dethrone the top 2. The American's never payed any real notice of him before now, even after 08. It'll be interesting. I've seen very few tip Novak. Wouldn't be unlike him to bounce back. I'd guess he'd do anything to avoid Murray in the semis similar to Rog. Please oh please let the latter get a tough draw! He was incredibly fortuitous with the draw at WImby and the Olympics!
Anyway if my maths are correct the draw will occur about 5 our time today folks. The mens seeds are as expected, almost identical to rankings. The women's has already come in for criticism and I'd share that. How Serena is not number one is beyond a joke. It is not fair on the top 2 either! Even number 2 would be ok but number 4!!! Ridiculous! Anyway I'm sure she won't care if she can (as expected) take home the trophy!
That's a shame about Eurosport. AT least RG and Wimby have wall-to-wall coverage on free to air channels! I'm sure we'll find some way to watch
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As far as I remember Eurosport has the rights to the WTA matches from US Open, Sky has the ATP rights.
Also, because of the time difference they often go off air before the matches start, especially in the later stages when they start later and miss some of the night sessions.
DRAW:
Men:
Federer is in Murray's half of the draw. Ferrer is in Djokovic's.
Federer gets Donald Young in R1. Cushy for him.
Djokovic gets Paolo Lorenzi.
Murray gets Bogomolov Jr.
Berdych vs Goffin
Delpo vs Nalbandian
Ryan Harrison against Benjamin Becker in R1 followed by winner of Delpo/Nalbandian. Tough draw there. Really needs to get his ranking up if he wants to go further at Slams.
Hewitt vs Kamke in R1.
Isner vs Malisse.
Nishikori vs Qualifier in R1, gets another Qualifier in R2. Nice draw there.
Raonic vs Santiago Giraldo.
Projected QF: Federer-Berdych, Murray-Tsonga, Tipsarevic-Ferrer, del Potro-Djokovic. But there'll probably be some upsets along the way there.
Women:
Sharapova and Azarenka in top half. Serena and Aga in bottom half.
Sharapova looks to have a very easy 1st week. First possible seed is Medina Garrigues in R3
Serena vs Vandeweghe.
Stosur starts her defence against Martic.
Petko draws Operandi in her first GS match of the year. Possible meeting with Bartoli in R2, pretty good draw for her there.
Venus plays Mattek-Sands in R1, followed by Most likely Kerber in R2.
Possible Li Na vs Clijsters in R3.
Brit ladies got it rough.
Keothavong vs Kerber
Watson vs Li Na
Robson got a qualifier. But is in the same quarter as Clijsters and Li Na.
Projected QFs: Azarenka-Stosur, Sharapova-Kvitova, Wozniacki-Serena, Kerber-Radwanska that's based on results following seeding, but especially with the women this is highly unlikely.0 -
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TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »Clijsters is playing singles, doubles with Flipkins, and mixed with Bob Bryan. She's really going to get her moneys worth out of her last slam.
Wonder will it be ARod's too?
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Murray's expected opponents-
R3- Lopez
R4- Raonic
1/4- Tsonga
1/2- Fed
Rough.
Nothing fair about 4th seed getting 8th in the quarters but it's just the way it's done I guess.
Novak gets a nice bye into the final :pac:
This is Murray's opportunity to win a GS and I dont think his draw is really as tough as you say.:p
Apart from a tricky opener against Bogomolov when all players have nerves at play, he would not face any major opposition till R4 possibly against Roanic who has not really lived up to expectations in recent months. In the quarters, he might face Tsonga, a player he has a very good record against. I see no potential problems unless he has that RG "Murray" moment again.
Essentially, If he plays as well as he did at Wimby and the Olympics, he has the capacity to win this tournament, especially with the momentum from his Olympics victory, but the big question is - can he? If he meets Roger in the Semis, then I dont think so; However, I think this is going to be a tricky tournament with possible upsets along the way and the top seeds have to very careful and play their best at all matches, no room for complacency- ask Nadal!
On the Women's side, my head is just screaming Kerber, Kerber, Kerber. She has improved a lot and the way she beat Serena is a testimony to her current form. Of course, Serena, Sharapova, Azarenka and probably Kim are still the top favourites but I just have that feeling that she might spoil the party plus it would be nice for an underdog to win
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KINGVictor wrote: »On the Women's side, my head is just screaming Kerber, Kerber, Kerber. She has improved a lot and the way she beat Serena is a testimony to her current form. Of course, Serena, Sharapova, Azarenka and probably Kim are still the top favourites but I just have that feeling that she might spoil the party plus it would be nice for an underdog to win
Serena was dead on her feet when Kerber beat her. Don't get me wrong, Kerber has a very good game but she's got the mental strength of a wet tissue, as was evident in her Cinci final and her Eastbourne final earlier in the year.
If she can keep herself together for 7 matches then yes, she'd be a very good outsider to put your money on, but I don't think she will.0 -
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Right now I think Murray'd take Fed over Djok in the semi because there is probably more likelihood of roger being caught early than Novak (saying that most likely all 3 will make semis anyway).
In no particular order...
1. I've been through Murray's. To be fair his first challenge of note should be in round 4 and he should come through!
2. If Berdych turns up he'd give Roger a hell of a game, but he's been awful lately. I'm almost certain Goffin his first round opponent beat him at W'don/Olympic first round? Clay-lover Almagro (at a push), Mahut and Querrey are tough here.
3. Gasquet could be an interesting bet for a semi in Ferrer's quarter. In fact he's the only real challenge in this side unless Tommy Haas/LLeyton Hewitt can do something special
4. Until now I hadn't examined Roger's draw closely enough. It actually is quite tough. Karlovic/Fish/Verdasco in his quarter all dangerous floaters.
5. Jo Willy will also have his work cut out to make quarters. Mightn't be as bad for Andy afterall. Potential opponents for him include Falla round 2 (genuinely thought this guy had Roger bet in the first round at the Olympics), Chardy round 3 (bet Murray Cincinnatti), and Nishikori or Cilic in round 4. Hmmm...
6. Isner could well make the quarters in Tipsarevic's side but he has been disappointing in many majors. The guy with the funny shades should be okay here.
7. Andy Roddick could be a real dark horse to make the quarters. It would of course mean beating Delpo along the way most likely but the American can't complain too much with it.
8. That leaves Novak's side and looking at it you'd have to wonder who the guy is paying to get such luck :pac: Baghdatis at a push may challenge round 4 but seriously the guy should buy a lottery ticket tomorrow :P
I'll predict but honestly it is hard to call. Here goes, no going back
Djokovic v Delpo (but I have a real feeling the Argentine may not make it!)
Gasquet v Tipsarevic
Federer v Querrey
Murray v tsonga
Djok v Gasquet
Fed v Murray
Djok v Murray
Murray0 -
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TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »Oh no, I agree, it's a tough era to be playing in. I mean 10 years or so ago the likes of Tsonga, Ferrer, Berdych etc. would be winning Slams all over, now they're vying to be the non top 4 guy that makes up the numbers in the SF's.
Mark Phillipoussis made a final. And Nalbandian Wouldn't be near top ten nowadays or Henman for that matter or even Hewitt who won it 0 -
2. If Berdych turns up he'd give Roger a hell of a game, but he's been awful lately. I'm almost certain Goffin his first round opponent beat him at W'don/Olympic first round? Clay-lover Almagro (at a push), Mahut and Querrey are tough here.
3. Gasquet could be an interesting bet for a semi in Ferrer's quarter. In fact he's the only real challenge in this side unless Tommy Haas/LLeyton Hewitt can do something special
4. Until now I hadn't examined Roger's draw closely enough. It actually is quite tough. Karlovic/Fish/Verdasco in his quarter all dangerous floaters.
5. Jo Willy will also have his work cut out to make quarters. Mightn't be as bad for Andy afterall. Potential opponents for him include Falla round 2 (genuinely thought this guy had Roger bet in the first round at the Olympics), Chardy round 3 (bet Murray Cincinnatti), and Nishikori or Cilic in round 4. Hmmm...
6. Isner could well make the quarters in Tipsarevic's side but he has been disappointing in many majors. The guy with the funny shades should be okay here.
7. Andy Roddick could be a real dark horse to make the quarters. It would of course mean beating Delpo along the way most likely but the American can't complain too much with it.
8. That leaves Novak's side and looking at it you'd have to wonder who the guy is paying to get such luck :pac: Baghdatis at a push may challenge round 4 but seriously the guy should buy a lottery ticket tomorrow :P
Interesting thoughts. I'll add my own to yours.....
2 - Berdych and Goffin have never played each other. Goffin had a surprising run at RG and did okay at Wimbledon too. He looks a good player and if Berdych continues in the form he's been in since Wimbledon Goffin could easily beat him.
3 - Gasquet is a brilliant player when he's on but he's cursed with the French brain. He switches off like *that* and is as capable of losing a match 6-0, 6-0, 6-0 as he is of winning one by the same score. Always fun to see which version of him shows up.
4 - Nishikori beat Tsonga in Australia if I remember correctly. Tough enough second week for Jo. As with Gasquet, the French brain plays a major part in how far he goes in tournaments.
p.s. Did you guys see the picture he posted on twitter earlier? He's in Winston Salem and posted a photo of a fire hydrant surrounded by barriers with the caption "WS is much safer than Toronto" A little nod to his running into a fire hydrant accident
6 - Isner sucks at the Slams because he can't win a 5 set match in 3 straight sets. Takes far too much out of himself in the early rounds. Tipsy should be all right there. Isner is nigh on impossible to break but hasn't got much to any other part of his game.
7 - I don't know about Roddick. He is still capable of playing really good tennis. If he's fit and healthy it'll be interesting to watch him, he'll have the full crowd support too which always helps. Delpo has been passed fit to play after seeing specialists about his wrist, but it's still a question hanging over him. He'll be another one who would benefit a lot from getting through his first few rounds in straight sets.
8 - Djokovic should really be in the final. If he plays the way he played in Toronto and Cinci (not the final) he should be in the final and it'd be a major shock if he's not.
I'd love to see someone other than Murray/Fed in the final, but it's bound to be one of them. I'm going to say Federer/Djokovic final with Djokovic winning it.0 -
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TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »2 - Berdych and Goffin have never played each other. Goffin had a surprising run at RG and did okay at Wimbledon too. He looks a good player and if Berdych continues in the form he's been in since Wimbledon Goffin could easily beat him.
Aha Darcis is the man I'm looking for (cheeky google!) dunno why I thought it was Goffin.
It really is hard to call for quarters. generally the semis are far more predictable. Mayer, Youzhny and Kol (you know who I mean huer of a name to spell) all made 1/4s at sw19! None of which you'd rate too highly tbh or have given much chance to pre-tournament 0 -
It really is hard to call for quarters. generally the semis are far more predictable. Mayer, Youzhny and Kol (you know who I mean huer of a name to spell) all made 1/4s at sw19! None of which you'd rate too highly tbh or have given much chance to pre-tournament
RG and Wimbledon are really random in the earlier rounds compared to Aus and US. I guess hard courts are more predictable than clay and grass. Some players have great weeks at those tournaments but then do nothing for the rest of the year.
Will be interesting to see how the weather holds up this year. Will there be a repeat of last years leaky courts and Monday final?0 -
TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »RG and Wimbledon are really random in the earlier rounds compared to Aus and US. I guess hard courts are more predictable than clay and grass. Some players have great weeks at those tournaments but then do nothing for the rest of the year.
Will be interesting to see how the weather holds up this year. Will there be a repeat of last years leaky courts and Monday final?
The clay can be a hure at times. Slow as. Suits those SPanish/Italian/French players to a tee who grew up playing on it!
AYe didn't catch as much of this as I'd have liked last year. Zero excuse this year
If pushed (imagine you were a player) which GS would you give up if you had to? I always considered this somewhat the least of the slams, although many others say Aus, I'm sure others and players like Murray/Roddick/Fed would say FO
There's no least really but it'd be interesting what players would say!0 -
If pushed (imagine you were a player) which GS would you give up if you had to? I always considered this somewhat the least of the slams, although many others say Aus, I'm sure others and players like Murray/Roddick/Fed would say FO
There's no least really but it'd be interesting what players would say!
Well, as I understand it, the players all love the Australian Open. They call it "The Fun Slam". It's extremely well organised, the fans are great, the weather probably doesn't hurt it either. I'm not sure how it ranks in importance of winning though? I suppose a Slam is a Slam but it always seems like winning the US Open is more of a big deal.
As far as watching them goes my order of preference would be:
1 - Wimbledon
2 - Australia
3 - French
4 - US
If I was a player, and looking to drop one, I'd say the French, unless of course I was Spanish and it was the one I was most likely to win
I just don't like it. The clay is slow and it can be very boring to watch at times. The fans in Paris are just the worst, they boo absolutely everything, so rude. The US fans are loud an annoying but they're not what you'd call rude. It doesn't seem like the nicest atmosphere to play in unless you're French.0 -
The clay can be a hure at times. Slow as. Suits those SPanish/Italian/French players to a tee who grew up playing on it!
AYe didn't catch as much of this as I'd have liked last year. Zero excuse this year
If pushed (imagine you were a player) which GS would you give up if you had to? I always considered this somewhat the least of the slams, although many others say Aus, I'm sure others and players like Murray/Roddick/Fed would say FO
There's no least really but it'd be interesting what players would say!
In order of importance, I would rank the slams like this:
1. Wimbledon
2. US Open
3. French Open
4. Australian Open
It may have a slam status, but I think if a player had to pick they'd have any of the other slams over the Australian Open. I think it stems back to the the pre-1990's era when the AO was regularly skipped by a lot of top players.0 -
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Guess this answers the question as to which Slam is "least important" to the players. Greedy sons of mothers.
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TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »Guess this answers the question as to which Slam is "least important" to the players. Greedy sons of mothers.
Hasn't a hope of happening I'd say. Aye shows that Aus is the perceived weakest so alright. Anyway roll on tomorrow. Hopefully no stupid scheduling problems or rain delays this year0 -
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Early start for the rain. Doesn't usually begin until the end of first week.
Sam Stosur demolished Petric Martic earlier, 6-1, 6-1. Sam looked in great shape, no nerves at all. Hope she keeps getting better as the tournament goes on.
Stosur won the first 19 points of the first set and then double faulted :mad: what a way to blow a potential golden set! Either way good win tbh. This rain is not looking good, it's pelting down. Not promised to clear either apparently. Wednesday I know is promised desperate too. That's all well and good but cue some disastrous scheduling errors as a result 0 -
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